SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “peak demand prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

The US Western Interconnection is facing unprecedented challenges in the form of less predictable peak demand, increasingly diverse generating resources, and fast-growing loads due to the onset of artificial intelligence, hyperscale computing, and electrification. Projecting where future generation may be developed is critical to maintaining a robust and resilient electric grid under this mounting uncertainty and variability. Using an integrated multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that links a human-Earth systems model, an hourly load model, a geospatial power plant siting model, and an hourly grid operations model, we evaluate the power plant landscape evolution under eight alternative futures between 2020 and 2055. These futures represent a wide but plausible range of atmospheric conditions, emissions constraints, and economic, technological, and population growth assumptions. We find that local-level development can vary substantially both by generation type and capacity buildout across these futures. Specific regions of the Western Interconnection are projected to see large amounts of capacity development regardless of the future scenario. We additionally determine that projected power plant locations are more heavily influenced by the cost to interconnect to the electric grid than the locational energy value.

Mongird, Kendall↗

DOE OSTI2020

Harvesting the low-hanging fruit of high energy savings -- Virtual Occupancy using Wi-Fi Data

Approximately 20% of primary energy consumed in the U.S. is attributed to HVAC use. Ideally, HVAC operation would be driven by actual building occupancy, but lack of reliable occupancy information often results in the use of conservative static schedules. This disparity is even more pronounced in a college campus, where the function of each space differs by building (classrooms, offices, libraries) and the class schedules change frequently -- every semester, day of week, and hour. While several research papers propose the use of counts of the Wi-Fi connections (e.g., phones, computers) as a proxy for occupancy, few real-world implementations exist. This paper describes the development and deployment of an open-source Wi-Fi-to-Occupancy software library in 65 buildings of a college campus, and the planned integration with the building energy management and control system at the building scale. Over a year of Wi-Fi data was gathered into distinct academic periods, including fall and spring semester, academic breaks, and summer sessions. Patterns such as students moving between classrooms, closing laptops before exams, etc., can be visualized from the data. Approximating occupancy from Wi-Fi data presents challenges which we address in this project -- for example, identifying static devices, or estimating the ratio of devices per person. Utilizing real-time occupancy data to inform optimal HVAC schedules and ventilation rates creates the potential to identify and reduce energy waste. Other potential applications include forecasting occupancy, and using Wi-Fi data to predict peak demands. Finally, the paper discusses how to easily scale these tools to other buildings.

Pritoni, Marco↗

DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗

DOE OSTI2022

Field Validation of a Building Operating System Platform

The U.S General Services Administration's (GSA's) Green Proving Ground program, in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. completed a large pilot study of an Energy Management Information Systems (EMIS) with Automated System Optimization (ASO). Four test bed facilities, each with different building characteristics and systems, were chosen for the implementation of cloud-based EMIS with ASO. Depending on functionality, this tool can be extremely effective in energy management and energy optimization in buildings. The capabilities evaluated in the pilot ranged from energy savings and energy consumption predictions to evaluations of user acceptance, operability, and ease of installation. This report presents the methodology, lessons learned and best practices, and deployment recommendations for the GSA's portfolio of commercial office space, comprising more than 8,500 properties.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Distribution Substation Planning Toolkit (dsp-toolkit) v1.0

The Distribution Substation Planning Toolkit (DSP Toolkit) is a software suite designed to streamline the planning and optimization of distribution substations. This toolkit offers a comprehensive set of tools and APIs for data curation, short-term electric load forecasting, and weather-sensitive load adjustment, making it an essential resource for utility companies, engineers, and researchers. Features • Data Preprocessing and Curation: Efficiently manage and preprocess large datasets to ensure high-quality input for analysis. • Short-Term Load Forecasting: Utilize data-driven models to predict short-term electric loads accurately. • Weather-Sensitive Modeling: Automatically adjust load forecasts based on weather data to predict future peak demands more precisely. Uses The DSP Toolkit is ideal for planning and optimizing distribution substations, providing a user-friendly interface and comprehensive documentation. It is suitable for both novice and experienced users, facilitating efficient and accurate planning processes. Advantages • Efficiency: Automates complex planning tasks, reducing manual effort and minimizing errors. • Scalability: Handles large datasets and complex models, making it suitable for large-scale projects. • Community and Support: Open-source with active community contributions, ensuring continuous improvement and support. • Extensibility: Easily extendable with custom modules and plugins, allowing users to tailor the toolkit to their specific needs. The DSP Toolkit stands out by offering a robust, flexible, and user-friendly solution for distribution substation planning. Public Abstract

Li, Han [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LB↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting peak day and peak hour of electricity demand with ensemble machine learning

Battery energy storage systems can be used for peak demand reduction in power systems, leading to significant economic benefits. Two practical challenges are 1) accurately determining the peak load days and hours and 2) quantifying and reducing uncertainties associated with the forecast in probabilistic risk measures for dispatch decision-making. In this study, we develop a supervised machine learning approach to generate 1) the probability of the next operation day containing the peak hour of the month and 2) the probability of an hour to be the peak hour of the day. Guidance is provided on preparation and augmentation of data as well as selection of machine learning models and decision-making thresholds. The proposed approach is applied to the Duke Energy Progress system and successfully captures 69 peak days out of 72 testing months with a 3% exceedance probability threshold. On 90% of the peak days, the actual peak hour is among the 2 h with the highest probabilities.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development and performance evaluation of active insulation systems using solid-state thermal switches

Traditional building envelopes have passive insulation systems that cannot respond to dynamic changes in the environment. An Active Insulation System (AIS) consists of Active Insulation Materials (AIMs) that dynamically vary the thermal conductivity of the insulation system. Several researchers have evaluated the impact of AIS on building thermal and energy performance by using simulation tools. Up to 70% savings in annual heating and cooling energy and significant reductions in peak demand have been predicted for some climates with wall systems employing AIS. However, materials and assembly development still need a cost-effective product that achieves the required performance. Here, in this study, we present the process of developing an AIS that we will install in a test hut for its performance evaluation. Minimum performance criteria of the AIS system are developed based on R-low/R-high ratio, required time and efficiency to switch states, and cost estimates. The following steps during this study are creating the concept to meet the requirements, predicting the performance via simulations, developing the experimental setup for bench-scale testing, and finally, constructing a full-scale wall assembly and monitoring the performance when exposed to environmental chamber tests. The selected approach uses off-the-shelf products to create an AIS that can switch R-value between 0.98 ft 2 ·°F·h/BTU (0.173 m 2 ·K/W) and 5.81 ft 2 ·°F·h/BTU (1.02 m 2 ·K/W) and have a switching time of less than one minute between R-high and R-low.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development and Performance Evaluation of of Active Insulation Systems using Solid-State Thermal Switches

Traditional building envelopes have passive insulation systems that cannot respond to dynamic changes in the environment. An Active Insulation System (AIS) consists of Active Insulation Materials (AIMs), which dynamically vary the thermal conductivity of the insulation system. Several researchers have evaluated the impact of AIS on building thermal and energy performance by using simulation tools. Up to 70% savings in annual heating and cooling energy and significant reductions in peak demand have been predicted for some climates with wall systems employing AIS. Sensitivity studies have provided requirements for the AIS properties and control schemes that can lead to those savings. However, materials and assembly development have not yet achieved a cost-effective product that achieves the required performance. In this study, we present the process to develop an AIS that we will install in a test hut for their performance evaluation. Minimum performance criteria of the AIS system are developed based on Rmin/Rmax ratio, required time and efficiency to switch states and cost estimate. The next step carried out during this study is creating the concept to meet the requirements, predicting the performance by simulations, developing the experimental setup for bench-scale testing, and finally, constructing a full-scale wall assembly and monitoring the performance when exposed to natural weather conditions. The selected approach uses off-the-shelf products to create a materials system that can switch R-value between R~=1 ft2·°F·h/BTU (0.18 m2·K/W) and R~=7 ft2·°F·h/BTU (1.23 m2·K/W and have a switching time of less than one minute between R-high and R-low.

Iffa, Emishaw↗

DOE OSTI2020

Peak load reduction and load shaping in HVAC and refrigeration systems in commercial buildings by using a novel lightweight dynamic priority-based control strategy

Reducing peak power demand in a building can reduce electricity expenses for the building owner and contribute to the efficiency and reliability of the electrical power grid. For the building owner, reduced expenses come from the reduction or elimination of peak power charges on electricity bills. For the power system operator, reducing peak power demand leads to a more predictable load profile and reduces stress on the electric grid system. Herein we present a computationally inexpensive, dynamic, and retrofit-deployable control strategy to effect peak load reduction and load shaping. The effectiveness of the control strategy is examined in a simulation with 80 air-conditioning units and 40 refrigeration units. The results show that a peak demand reduction of 60 kW can be achieved relative to peak demand in a typical set point–based approach. The proposed strategy was deployed in a gymnasium building with four rooftop HVAC units, where it showed over 15% peak demand (kW) reduction savings while maintaining or lowering energy consumption (in kilowatt-hours) relative to the set point–based thermostat controls.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19

Abstract Background Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain. Methods Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage. We conducted separate analyses to evaluate each of these components. In the first analysis, we validated various hospital use epidemiological models using a recent validation framework designed for epidemiological models. This allowed us to quantify the accuracy of the models in predicting critical aspects such as the date and magnitude of local COVID-19 peaks, among other factors. In the second analysis, we evaluated a range of demand calculators for ventilators, medical gowns, and COVID-19 test kits. To achieve this, we decoupled these demand calculators from the underlying epidemiological models and provided ground truth data for their inputs. This approach enabled a direct comparison of the demand calculators, comparing them against each other and actual usage data when available. The code is available athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13712387. Results Performance varied greatly across the epidemiological models, with greater variability in COVID-19 hospital use predictions than for COVID-19 deaths as analyzed previously. Some models did not have any peaks. Among those that did, the models under-estimated date of peak approximately as often as they over-estimated, but were more likely to under-estimate magnitude of peak, with typical relative errors around 50%. Regarding demand calculator predictions, there was significant variability, including five-fold differences in predictions for gown models. Validation against actual or surrogate usage data illustrated the potential value of demand models while demonstrating their limitations. Conclusions The emerging field of demand modeling holds promise in averting medical resource shortages during future public health emergencies. However, achieving this potential necessitates focused efforts on standardization, transparency, and rigorous model validation before placing reliance on demand models in critical public health decision-making.

Medical Informatics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning-enhanced MPC for demand flexibility in small commercial buildings: An experimental study

Small- and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCBs) represent the majority of U.S. commercial building stock and a significant share of peak electricity demand, yet they often lack centralized building automation systems, representing a significant untapped resource for urban energy management. This infrastructure gap makes advanced control implementation challenging, limiting the potential for widespread demand flexibility. Model Predictive Control (MPC) has shown strong potential for load shifting, peak demand reduction, and cost savings, but its effectiveness is hindered by unmeasured disturbances such as internal heat gains. This paper presents a Hybrid MPC framework that integrates a physics-based gray-box building thermal model, identified using a lumped disturbance (LD) approach, with a machine learning (ML) model for forecasting unmeasured disturbances. The hybrid approach is designed for buildings with multiple individually controlled heat pump and thermostat pairs, common in SMCBs, and aims to optimize coordinated scheduling of multiple heat pumps under dynamic electricity pricing while respecting comfort constraints. The methodology is validated through both simulations of case study buildings and experimental studies at a highly-instrumented test facility. Simulation results show that the Hybrid MPC achieves substantial load shifting and peak demand reduction, approaching the performance of an ideal MPC with perfect disturbance knowledge, and outperforming a conventional MPC without disturbance forecasting. In experiments, the Hybrid MPC reduced daily HVAC energy costs by 8.7%, peak-price time load (load shifting) by 41.7%, and peak demand by 29.2% compared to baseline control, demonstrating comparable benefits to the 11.6% cost savings, 42.9% load shifting, and 23.2% peak reduction of the ideal MPC. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid modeling approach can significantly improve MPC performance in real-world SMCB applications without requiring additional disturbance measurements.

Demand Flexibility↗

DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Documentation: Lighting Control for Load Shedding

This report describes the modeling methodology for a single end-use savings shape measure - lighting control for load shedding - and briefly introduces key results. The lighting control for load shedding measure applies lighting dimming control to reduce the lighting load during the building's electricity peak window every weekday. The measure takes daily peak load schedule inputs generated by the method "Dispatch Schedule Generation" described in the "Supplemental Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures" to determine the start and end times of the predicted peak window, and then adjusts the lighting dimming level by a percentage reduction from the original schedules during the peak window to reduce the peak demand. The measure is applicable to (large, medium and small) offices, warehouses, and primary and secondary schools, which correspond to approximately 68% of the stock floor area of commercial buildings in ComStock analysis. The measure demonstrates 2%-7% daily peak demand reduction performance for applicable buildings, and 0.43% total site energy savings (0 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Documentation: Thermostat and Lighting Control for Load Shedding

This report describes the modeling methodology for an upgrade package of two end-use savings shape measures - Thermostat Control for Load Shedding and Lighting Control for Load Shedding - and briefly introduces key results. The package combines thermostat control for load shedding and lighting control for load shedding measures to reduce the HVAC and lighting load during the building's electricity peak window every weekday. The measure takes daily peak load schedule inputs generated by the method "Dispatch Schedule Generation" described in the "Supplemental Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures" to determine the start and end times of the predicted peak window, and then relaxes the thermostat setpoints and dims the lighting level from the original schedules during the peak window to reduce the peak demand. The measure is applicable to (large, medium and small) offices, warehouses, and primary and secondary schools, which correspond to approximately 68% of the stock floor area of commercial buildings in ComStock analysis. The measure demonstrates 3%-10% daily peak demand reduction performance for applicable buildings, and 0.97% total site energy savings (0 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Documentation: Thermostat and Lighting Control for Load Shedding + Photovoltaics With 40% Rooftop Coverage

This report describes the modeling methodology for an upgrade package of two end-use savings shape measures - Thermostat Control for Load Shedding and Lighting Control for Load Shedding - and briefly introduces key results. The package combines thermostat control for load shedding, lighting control for load shedding, and PV with 40% rooftop coverage measures to reduce the net building load during the building's electricity peak window every weekday. The measure takes daily peak load schedule inputs generated by the method "Dispatch Schedule Generation" described in the "Supplemental Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures" to determine the start and end times of the predicted peak window, and then relaxes the thermostat setpoints and dims the lighting level from the original schedules during the peak window to reduce the peak demand, while applying the fixed rooftop PV application for onsite electricity generation. The measure is applicable to (large, medium and small) offices, warehouses, and primary and secondary schools, which correspond to approximately 68% of the stock floor area of commercial buildings in ComStock analysis. The measure demonstrates 5%-15% daily peak demand reduction performance for applicable buildings, and around 1% total site energy savings (0 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Performance Assessment of a Dual-purpose HP-TES for a Typical Year Comparing Different Climate Zones

Complete electrification of heating and cooling systems in the United States would overload the existing electrical grid. To this end, recent research efforts have focused on energy storage as one way to reduce ever-increasing peak electricity demands. One such technology is heat pump integrated thermal-energy storage (HP-TES) systems, which can enable load-shifting and reduce demand during peak hours. In this work, a Modelica model of a 4-Ton, dual-mode (heating and cooling) HP-TES system using a room-temperature phase-change material (PCM) integrated through a secondary hydronic loop was developed and simulated for a typical meteorological year in Riverside, CA (ASHRAE Climate Zone 2B), and Chicago, IL (ASHRAE Climate Zone 5A), for a DOE small office prototype building. The COP improvement and demand reduction were analyzed during the time-of-use peak hours along with the required recharge cycle energy demand. A typical summer in Riverside, CA resulted in model-predicted peak COP increases of 50 – 100% compared to the baseline heat pump, especially at higher outdoor temperatures, coupled with maximum peak energy reductions of 22%. During shoulder and winter season simulations, heating energy savings were higher as outdoor temperatures dropped below the PCM phase change temperature. For Chicago, IL, backup heating was necessary to meet the required system capacity for very cold ambient conditions, resulting in winter peak energy savings between 16 – 60% when accounting for backup heating requirements. The recharge energy was found to be mostly below the baseline HP energy during the peak. With improved component selections and controls, the recharge energy may be reduced. The outcomes from the simulations can provide first-order estimates for potential peak energy savings, challenges, and required controls in any location before conducting any field testing.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of COVID-19 related stay-at-home restrictions on residential electricity use and implications for future grid stability

“Stay-at-home” orders and other health precautions enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to substantial changes in residential electricity usage. Here, we conduct a case study to analyze data from 390 apartments in New York City (NYC) to examine the impacts of two key drivers of residential electricity usage: COVID-19 case-loads and the outdoor temperature. We develop a series of regression models to predict two characteristics of residential electricity usage on weekdays: The average occupied apartment’s consumption (kWh) over a 9am-5pm window and the hourly peak demand (Watt) over a 12pm-5pm window. Via a Monte Carlo simulation, we forecast the two usage characteristics under a possible scenario in which stay-at-home orders in NYC, or a similar metropolitan region, coincide with warm summer weather. Under the scenario, the 9am-5pm residential electricity usage on weekdays is predicted to be 15% – 24% higher than under prior, pre-pandemic conditions. This could lead to substantially higher utility costs for residents. Additionally, we predict that the residential hourly peak demand between 12pm and 5pm on weekdays could be 35% – 53% higher than that under pre-pandemic conditions. We conclude that the projected increase in peak demand - which might arise if stay-at-home guidelines coincided with hot weather conditions - could pose grid management challenges, especially for residential feeders. We also note that, if there is a longer lasting shift towards work and study-from-home, utilities will have to rethink load profile considerations. The applications of our predictive models to managing future smart-grid technology are also highlighted.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Building Operation Model (Morpheus) for Dallas Fort Worth Airport (CRADA CRD-19-16301 Final Report)

The primary objective of this project was to leverage digital twin technology to enhance the design and operation of DFW Airport terminals and their associated energy systems. To achieve this, Morpheus, a building digital twin, was developed to guide improvements in airport operations, specifically targeting reductions in peak power demand and overall energy consumption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

An evaluation of the demand response potential of integrated dynamic window and HVAC systems

Demand response (DR) increases the flexibility and reliability of the electricity grid as use of intermittent renewable energy sources increases. HVAC and envelope DR measures present the largest aggregate energy and peak demand savings potential of all commercial building end uses because their net demand savings occur during critical peak demand periods. Controllable envelope measures include switchable electrochromic windows, operable window attachments such as outdoor louvers, roller shades, and awnings, as well as other innovative facade technologies that can modulate both solar heat gain and daylight admission over a broad solar-optical range. This study evaluated the technical potential of DR-enabled dynamic windows to reduce critical peak demand for a prototypical medium office building situated in all 16 U.S. climates. Model predictive control (MPC) algorithms were designed to minimize electricity cost in daylit perimeter office zones through control of an electrochromic window with and without HVAC thermostat setpoint control. Conventional and time-of-use rates were used to shape the degree of DR. Median annual peak demand savings with window and thermostat control across all climate zones were 24.3 kW (4.4 W/m 2 ) per building or 15.9 W/m 2 for non-north perimeter zones. Resource adequacy at the whole building level was estimated to be 13.1 to 43.4 $/kW per year over the 30-year life of the installation. Co-benefits were increased energy efficiency, and reduced electricity cost and emissions. Visual and thermal comfort requirements were met at all times. Dynamic facades controlled by MPC have substantial technical potential for DR across all U.S. climates and warrant serious consideration for inclusion in DR portfolios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗