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NASA NTRS2017

Comparing Proxy and Model Estimates of Hydroclimate Variability and Change over the Common Era

Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations.We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.

Common Era↗

NASA NTRS2001

On the Performance of TCP Spoofing in Satellite Networks

In this paper, we analyze the performance of Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) in a network that consists of both satellite and terrestrial components. One method, proposed by outside research, to improve the performance of data transfers over satellites is to use a performance enhancing proxy often dubbed 'spoofing.' Spoofing involves the transparent splitting of a TCP connection between the source and destination by some entity within the network path. In order to analyze the impact of spoofing, we constructed a simulation suite based around the network simulator ns-2. The simulation reflects a host with a satellite connection to the Internet and allows the option to spoof connections just prior to the satellite. The methodology used in our simulation allows us to analyze spoofing over a large range of file sizes and under various congested conditions, while prior work on this topic has primarily focused on bulk transfers with no congestion. As a result of these simulations, we find that the performance of spoofing is dependent upon a number of conditions.

Ishac, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS2004

SCPS-TP: A Satellite-Enhanced TCP

This viewgraph presentation reviews the Space Communications Protocol Standard Transport Protocol (SCPS-TP) which is a satellite enhanced Transport Control Protocol (TCP). The contents include: 1) Purpose; 2) Background; 3) Stressed Communication Environments; 4) SCPS-TP Features; 5) SCPS-TP Performance; 6) Performance Enhancing Proxies (PEPs); and 7) Ongoing and Future SCPS-TP Work.

transmission control protocol(TCP)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Performance of a simple reanalysis proxy for U.S. cloud‐to‐ground lightning

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Michael K. Tippett↗

NASA NTRS2014

Lightning Jump Algorithm Development for the GOES·R Geostationary Lightning Mapper

Current work on the lightning jump algorithm to be used in GOES‐R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)'s data stream is multifaceted due to the intricate interplay between the storm tracking, GLM proxy data, and the performance of the lightning jump itself. This work outlines the progress of the last year, where analysis and performance of the lightning jump algorithm with automated storm tracking and GLM proxy data were assessed using over 700 storms from North Alabama. The cases analyzed coincide with previous semi‐objective work performed using total lightning mapping array (LMA) measurements in Schultz et al. (2011). Analysis shows that key components of the algorithm (flash rate and sigma thresholds) have the greatest influence on the performance of the algorithm when validating using severe storm reports. Automated objective analysis using the GLM proxy data has shown probability of detection (POD) values around 60% with false alarm rates (FAR) around 73% using similar methodology to Schultz et al. (2011). However, when applying verification methods similar to those employed by the National Weather Service, POD values increase slightly (69%) and FAR values decrease (63%). The relationship between storm tracking and lightning jump has also been tested in a real‐time framework at NSSL. This system includes fully automated tracking by radar alone, real‐time LMA and radar observations and the lightning jump. Results indicate that the POD is strong at 65%. However, the FAR is significantly higher than in Schultz et al. (2011) (50‐80% depending on various tracking/lightning jump parameters) when using storm reports for verification. Given known issues with Storm Data, the performance of the real‐time jump algorithm is also being tested with high density radar and surface observations from the NSSL Severe Hazards Analysis & Verification Experiment (SHAVE).

Schultz. E.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Investigation of several proxies to estimate sulfuric acid concentration in volcanic plume conditions

Sulfuric acid (H2SO4) is commonly accepted as a key precursor for atmospheric new particle formation (NPF). However, direct measurements of [H2SO4] remain challenging, thus preventing the determination of this important quantity, and, consequently, a complete understanding of its contribution to the NPF process. Several proxies have been developed to bridge the gaps, but their ability to predict [H2SO4] in very specific conditions such as those encountered in volcanic plumes (including in particular high sulphur dioxide mixing ratios) has not been evaluated so far. In this context, the main objective of the present study was to develop new proxies for daytime [H2SO4] in volcanic plume conditions and compare their performance to that of the proxies available in the literature. In specific, the data collected at Maïdo during the OCTAVE 2018 campaign, in the volcanic eruption plume of the Piton de la Fournaise, were first used to derive seven proxies based on the knowledge of sulphur dioxide (SO2) mixing ratio, global radiation, condensation sink (CS) and relative humidity (RH). In three of the seven proxies (F1–F3), all variables were given equal weight in the prediction of [H2SO4], while adjusted powers were allowed for the different variables in the other four proxies (A1–A4). Proxies A1–A4 were overall found to perform better compared to F1–F3, with, in specific, improved predictive ability for [H2SO4] > 2 × 108 per cu.cm. The CS was observed to play an important role in regulating [H2SO4], while, in contrast, the inclusion of RH did not improve the predictions. A last expression accounting for an additional sink term related to cluster formation, S1, was also tested and showed a very good predictive ability over the whole range of measured [H2SO4]. The newly developed proxies were in a second step further evaluated using airborne measurements performed in the passive degassing plume of Etna during the STRAP 2016 campaign. Increased correlations between observed and predicted [H2SO4] were obtained when the dependence of predicted [H2SO4] over CS was the lowest, and when the dependence over [SO2] was concurrently the highest. The best predictions were finally retrieved by the simple formulation of F2 (in which [SO2] and radiation alone were assumed to explain the variations of [H2SO4] with equal contributions), with a pre factor adapted to the STRAP data. All in all, our results illustrate the fairly good capacity of the proxy available in the literature to describe [H2SO4] in volcanic plume conditions, but highlight at the same time the benefit of the newly developed proxies for the prediction of the highest concentrations ([H2SO4] > 2–3 × 108 per cu.cm). Also, the contrasting behaviours of the new proxies in the two investigated datasets indicate that in volcanic plumes like in other environments, the relevance of a proxy can be affected by changes in environmental conditions, and that location specific coefficients do logically improve the predictions.

new particle formation↗

NASA NTRS1976

NASA/ESA CT-990 Spacelab simulation. Appendix A: The experiment operator

A joint NASA/ESA endeavor was established to conduct an extensive spacelab simulation using the NASA CV-990 airborne laboratory. The scientific payload was selected to perform studies in upper atmospheric physics and infrared astronomy with principal investigators from France, the Netherlands, England, and several groups from the United States. Two experiment operators from Europe and two from the U.S. were selected to live aboard the aircraft along with a mission manager for a six-day period and operate the experiments in behalf of the principal scientists. This appendix discusses the experiment operators and their relationship to the joint mission under the following general headings: selection criteria, training programs, and performance. The performance of the proxy operators was assessed in terms of adequacy of training, amount of scientific data obtained, quality of data obtained, and reactions to problems that arose in experiment operation.

Reller, J. O., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Use of the Deep Convective Cloud Technique (DCCT) to Monitor On-Orbit Performance of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM): Use of Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) Data as Proxy

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on the next generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) will not have onboard calibration capability to monitor its performance. The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite has been providing observations of total lightning over the Earth's Tropics since 1997. The GLM design is based on LIS heritage, making it a good proxy dataset. This study examines the performance of LIS throughout its time in orbit. This was accomplished through application of the Deep Convective Cloud Technique (DCCT) (Doelling et al., 2004) to LIS background pixel radiance data. The DCCT identifies deep convective clouds by their cold Infrared (IR) brightness temperatures and using them as invariant targets in the solar reflective portion of the solar spectrum. The GLM and LIS operate in the near-IR at a wavelength of 777.4 nm. In the present study the IR data is obtained from the Visible Infrared Sensor (VIRS) which is collocated with LIS onboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The DCCT is applied to LIS observations for July and August of each year from 1998-2010. The resulting distributions of LIS background DCC pixel radiance for each July August are very similar, indicating stable performance. The mean radiance of the DCCT analysis does not show a long term trend and the maximum deviation of the July August mean radiance for each year is within 0.7% of the overall mean. These results demonstrate that there has been no discernible change in LIS performance throughout its lifetime. A similar approach will used for monitoring the performance of GLM, with cold clouds identified using IR data from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) which will also be located on GOES-R. Since GLM is based on LIS design heritage, the LIS results indicate that GLM should also experience stable performance over its lifetime.

Buechler, Dennis E.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Forecasting Lightning Threat Using WRF Proxy Fields

Objectives: Given that high-resolution WRF forecasts can capture the character of convective outbreaks, we seek to: 1. Create WRF forecasts of LTG threat (1-24 h), based on 2 proxy fields from explicitly simulated convection: - graupel flux near -15 C (captures LTG time variability) - vertically integrated ice (captures LTG threat area). 2. Calibrate each threat to yield accurate quantitative peak flash rate densities. 3. Also evaluate threats for areal coverage, time variability. 4. Blend threats to optimize results. 5. Examine sensitivity to model mesh, microphysics. Methods: 1. Use high-resolution 2-km WRF simulations to prognose convection for a diverse series of selected case studies. 2. Evaluate graupel fluxes; vertically integrated ice (VII). 3. Calibrate WRF LTG proxies using peak total LTG flash rate densities from NALMA; relationships look linear, with regression line passing through origin. 4. Truncate low threat values to make threat areal coverage match NALMA flash extent density obs. 5. Blend proxies to achieve optimal performance 6. Study CAPS 4-km ensembles to evaluate sensitivities.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Performance Analysis of Airborne Photon-Counting Lidar Data in Preparation for the ICESat-2 Mission

Two airborne photon-counting laser altimeters have been deployed in direct support of National Aeronautics and Space Adminsitration (NASA's) upcoming Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) mission. Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL) was developed specifically for ICESat-2 testing and development. MABEL data are used to simulate key aspects of the ICESat-2 measurement strategy and are critical to the development of the algorithms for geophysical data-product generation. Slope Imaging Multipolarization Photon-counting Lidar (SIMPL) is a NASA Goddard Space Flight Center instrument that has also been deployed in support of ICESat-2 performance discovery. Both instruments are photon-counting, small footprint laser altimeters that sample in both the 532- and 1064-nm wavelengths. And both instruments serve as a proxy for ICESat-2 operational performance and error assessment and a basis for the development of potential validation strategies. This paper provides an overview of how data from MABEL and SIMPL overflights have specifically provided the foundation for understanding the quality of ICESat-2 data and how we can plan to evaluate ICESat-2 products through comparison with other modalities of lidar data and/or groundtruth locations using ground fiducials.

MABEL↗

NASA NTRS2003

Invited Talks at Naples and Coimbra

Prior to observations of the solar irradiance from space that began in 1979 there was no hope of obtaining even rough estimates of the solar irradiance variation over a solar cycle, since the space observations made since showed that the magnitude of the variation over a cycle to date is less than 0.1 %, a value too small to measure from the ground. At the same time, it would be useful to know the cycle-dependent variation over more than just the two recent cycles. Lacking a complete theory for the solar dynamo responsible for this variation, the current hope is to determine what proxy might yield the best values. Because there is an excellent database on sunspot umbral and penumbral areas from the Greenwich Observatory for the years 1874-1976 (but not beyond), the possibility exists that these data could be used. This talk will summarize results of a joint study in which satellite measurements of the solar irradiance variation are compared with ground-based measurements from the Coimbra Observatory of sunspot number, umbral area, and total sunspot area to determine which would serve as the best proxy for using the Greenwich observations back to 1874. From the near constancy of sunspot umbral magnetic fields upon which the useful parameter photometric sunspot index is based, we expected that umbral area would yield the beat proxy. To our surprise, after performing a statistical study of the observations over the period 1980-1990, preliminary indications are that sunspot number (a parameter available back into the 18th century) may be just as useful as the umbral area. As expected, both are quite superior as proxies to total sunspot area, which includes the penumbral area. This conclusion is consistent with earlier work of Hop and Schatten, who sought a proxy by studies of the umbral-penumbral area ratio. A second motivation for pursuing this work is the possibility that relatively small variations in the solar irradiance may induce larger responses in Earth's climate than would occur from simply introducing the corresponding heat differential into the terrestrial atmosphere. The talk will conclude with a description of why some climatologists are beginning to explore this possibility, which is suggest by some of the space observations used in the above search for a solar irradiance variation proxy.

Jordan, Stuart↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Goes-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM): Algorithm and Instrument Status

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) is the next series to follow the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. Superior spacecraft and instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES capabilities include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved capability for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The Geostationary Lighting Mapper (GLM) will map total lightning activity (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lighting flashes) continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. In parallel with the instrument development (a prototype and 4 flight models), a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms, cal/val performance monitoring tools, and new applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. A joint field campaign with Brazilian researchers in 2010-2011 will produce concurrent observations from a VHF lightning mapping array, Meteosat multi-band imagery, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) overpasses, and related ground and in-situ lightning and meteorological measurements in the vicinity of Sao Paulo. These data will provide a new comprehensive proxy data set for algorithm and application development.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The GOES-R Series Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) is the next series to follow the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. Superior spacecraft and instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES capabilities include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), which will have just completed Critical Design Review and move forward into the construction phase of instrument development. The GLM will operate continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. In parallel with the instrument development (an engineering development unit and 4 flight models), a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms, cal/val performance monitoring tools, and new applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional ground-based lightning networks are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms, test data sets, and applications, as well as improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. In this presentation we review the planned implementation of the instrument and suite of operational algorithms

Goodman, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Goes-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) is the next series to follow the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. Superior spacecraft and instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES capabilities include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved storm diagnostic capability with the Advanced Baseline Imager. The GLM will map total lightning activity (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lighting flashes) continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms, cal/val performance monitoring tools, and new applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. In this paper we will report on new Nowcasting and storm warning applications being developed and evaluated at various NOAA Testbeds.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

MAG4 Versus Alternative Techniques for Forecasting Active-Region Flare Productivity

MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free-magnetic-energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative observed aspects of the active region. We demonstrate the method by measuring the difference in performance between the "Present MAG4" technique and each of three alternative techniques, called "McIntosh Active-Region Class," "Total Magnetic Flux," and "Next MAG4." We do this by using (1) the MAG4 database of magnetograms and major-flare histories of sunspot active regions, (2) the NOAA table of the major-flare productivity of each of 60 McIntosh active-region classes of sunspot active regions, and (3) five technique-performance metrics (Heidke Skill Score, True Skill Score, Percent Correct, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Rate) evaluated from 2000 random two-by-two contingency tables obtained from the databases. We find that (1) Present MAG4 far outperforms both McIntosh Active-Region Class and Total Magnetic Flux, (2) Next MAG4 significantly outperforms Present MAG4, (3) the performance of Next MAG4 is insensitive to the forward and backward temporal windows used, in the range of one to a few days, and (4) forecasting from the free-energy proxy in combination with either any broad category of McIntosh active-region classes or any Mount Wilson active-region class gives no significant performance improvement over forecasting from the free-energy proxy alone (Present MAG4).

Falconer, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

MAG4 Versus Alternative Techniques for Forecasting Active-Region Flare Productivity

Falconer, David A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Examining the Trends in Financial Support Given to Science Teams for Data Analysis in Mission Proposals

Introduction: The goal of this summer internship research project was to analyze trends in financial support proposed for the science teams of planetary missions. The analysis focuses on the funding for Co-Investigators (Co-Is) to conduct research and/or data analysis needed to achieve the science objectives of the mission. The operational portion of the missions after launch (i.e., Phase E, including cruise and prime operations at the final destination) were examined since that is when the bulk of research is funded and conducted. The objectives of the project were to determine the average level of support for Co-Investigators, identify variation between mission competitions and over time, and determine the relationship between mission type and the amount of support requested. Methodology: This project was conducted using data from 90 proposals submitted to six mission competitions in the Discovery and New Frontiers programs. The level of support for Co-Is was determined by examining Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) 4 (Science Analysis) for Phase E, which was further subdivided into cruise and prime operations. This data represents a proxy rather than the actual funding Co-Is receive to perform research and data analysis because not every dollar in WBS 4 is spent on this activity. Therefore, the proxy obtained in this research represents an overestimate of the funds allocated to Co-Is for research and data analysis. Findings: Analysis shows that on average a Co-I receives approximately four full years of support spread across the entirety of Phase E for science analysis. The variation among proposed missions is less than expected given the variety of factors that are expected to drive this metric (length of mission, mission type, etc.). Additionally, the level of requested support for Co-Is has been remarkably consistent across every variable considered (by competition, over time, by mission type) over the six competitions and nearly 20 years spanned by this project. This remains true for cruise, primary operations, and all of Phase E. Conclusions: A remarkable amount of science is accomplished by the science teams of planetary missions. However, a surprisingly small amount of funding is requested to support the science analysis driving this productivity, both in terms of absolute magnitude of funding and as a portion of total mission cost. This suggests improvements are needed to refine the estimates of Co-I support and/or that Co-Is rely on other funding sources to conduct their research. Better estimates can be determined by engaging directly with Co-Is and NASA centers to obtain data as well as finding other data sources. Additionally, NASA could consider mandating improved reporting of requested funding levels in mission competitions.

E Murray↗

NASA NTRS2006

Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) Technology Demonstration Project Final Report

Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) is an essential capability that will be required to enable upcoming explorations mission systems such as the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV), as well as NASA aeronautics missions. However, the lack of flight experience and available test platforms have held back the infusion by NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) of ISHM technologies into future space and aeronautical missions. To address this problem, a pioneer project was conceived to use a high-performance aircraft as a low-cost proxy to develop, mature, and verify the effectiveness of candidate ISHM technologies. Given the similarities between spacecraft and aircraft, an F/A-18 currently stationed at Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) was chosen as a suitable host platform for the test bed. This report describes how the test bed was conceived, how the technologies were integrated on to the aircraft, and how these technologies were matured during the project. It also describes the lessons learned during the project and a forward path for continued work.

Mackey, Ryan↗