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At least 19 records

The scale and persistence of soil moisture anomalies as simulated in a global model

Short term variability of climate is intimately connected with soil moisture variability. Soil moisture provides the storage and subsequent return to the atmosphere, through evaporation and transpiration, of precipitation anomalies over land. Global Circulation Model (GCM) simulations enable consistent identification of correlations and dynamical connections between the hydrologic variables, many of which are incompletely observed. One way to facilitate understanding with these increasingly intricate models is to perform sensitivity studies in which a boundary condition or process is prescribed. In this study we will report on a sensitivity study in which a GCM with a sophisticated land surface representation is used to investigate soil moisture variability in the model climate. The simulations to be used in this study were made at R15 resolution (approximately 4.5 deg latitude x 7.5 deg longitude) with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SST) in the GENESIS model (Thompson and Pollard, 1994), which is coupled to a Land Surface Transfer model (LSX) at 2 deg x 2 deg resolution (Pollard and Thompson, 1994). All the results represented here were taken from the monthly averages of the model results. The LSX model accounts for the physical effects of vegetation with two layers specified at each grid point. Vegetation attributes such as leaf area indices, fractional cover, leaf albedos, etc., were taken from the global dataset in Dorman and Sellers (1989). A six-layer soil model extends from the surface to 4.25 m depth. SST's were prescribed in two ten year experiments using monthly SST values with the daily value being interpolated from the nearest two months. In the first experiment monthly climatological values were used, and in the second, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) observed SST's for the years 1979 through 1988 were used (Gates, 1992). Thus, the former experiment gives a measure of the intrinsic model variability, to be compared with that of the latter experiment, which includes month-to-month variability due to ocean forcing.

Fitzjarrald, D.↗

Monitoring Atmospheric CO2 From Space: Challenge & Approach

Atmospheric CO2 is the key radiative forcing for the Earth's climate and may contribute a major part of the Earth's warming during the past 150 years. Advanced knowledge on the CO2 distributions and changes can lead considerable model improvements in predictions of the Earth's future climate. Large uncertainties in the predictions have been found for decades owing to limited CO2 observations. To obtain precise measurements of atmospheric CO2, certain challenges have to be overcome. For an example, global annual means of the CO2 are rather stable, but, have a very small increasing trend that is significant for multi-decadal long-term climate. At short time scales (a second to a few hours), regional and subcontinental gradients in the CO2 concentration are very small and only in an order of a few parts per million (ppm) compared to the mean atmospheric CO2 concentration of about 400 ppm, which requires atmospheric CO2 space monitoring systems with extremely high accuracy and precision (about 0.5 ppm or 0.125%) in spatiotemporal scales around 75 km and 10-s. It also requires a decadal-scale system stability. Furthermore, rapid changes in high latitude environments such as melting ice, snow and frozen soil, persistent thin cirrus clouds in Amazon and other tropical areas, and harsh weather conditions over Southern Ocean all increase difficulties in satellite atmospheric CO2 observations. Space lidar approaches using Integrated Path Differential Absorption (IPDA) technique are considered to be capable of obtaining precise CO2 measurements and, thus, have been proposed by various studies including the 2007 Decadal Survey (DS) of the U.S. National Research Council. This study considers to use the Intensity-Modulated Continuous-Wave (IM-CW) lidar to monitor global atmospheric CO2 distribution and variability from space. Development and demonstration of space lidar for atmospheric CO2 measurements have been made through joint adventure of NASA Langley Research Center and Exelis, Inc. As prototype space IPDA lidars, airborne laser absorption lidar systems operating in 1.57 CO2 absorption band have been developed and tested through lab, ground-based range, and flight campaigns. Very encouraging results have been obtained. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for clear sky IPDA measurements of CO2 differential absorption optical depth (DAOD) for a 10-s integration over vegetated areas with about 10 km range was found to be as high as 1300, resulting in an error 0.077% or equivalent CO2 mixing ratio (XCO2) column precision of ~0.3 ppm. Precise range measurements using the IM-CW lidar approach were also achieved, and the uncertainties have been shown to be at sub meter level. Based on the airborne lidar development, space lidar and atmospheric CO2 observations are simulated. It shows that with the IM-CW approach, accurate atmospheric CO2 measurements can be achieved from space, and a space mission such as that proposed by the DS will meet science goals of atmospheric CO2 monitoring.

Lin, Bing↗

Soil moisture and the persistence of North American drought

Numerical sensitivity experiments on the effects of soil moisture on North American summertime climate are performed using a 12-layer global atmospheric general circulation model. Consideration is given to the hypothesis that reduced soil moisture may induce and amplify warm, dry summers of midlatitude continental interiors. The simulations resemble the conditions of the summer of 1988, including an extensive drought over much of North America. It is found that a reduction in soil moisture leads to an increase in surface temperature, lower surface pressure, increased ridging aloft, and a northward shift of the jet stream. It is shown that low-level moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico is important in the maintenance of persistent soil moisture deficits.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗

Spatial Distribution and Pattern Persistence of Surface Soil Moisture and Temperature Over Prairie from Remote Sensing

Images remotely sensed aboard aircraft during FIFE, namely, PBMR (microwave) soil moisture and NS001 thermal infrared surface temperature, were mapped on the same coordinate system covering the 20 km x 20 km experimental site. For both kinds of image data, the frequency distributions were close to symmetric, and the area average compared reasonably well with the ground based measurements. For any image on any given day, the correlation between the remotely sensed values and collocated ground based measurements over the area was usually high in the case of NS001 surface temperature but low in the case of PBMR soil moisture. On the other hand, at any given flux station the correlation between the PBMR and gravimetric soil moisture over all available days was usually high. The correlation pixel by pixel between images of PBMR on different days was generally high. The preservation of the spatial patterns of soil moisture was also evaluated by considering the correlation station by station between ground-based soil moisture measurements on different days; no persistence of spatial pattern was apparent during wet periods, but a definite pattern gradually established itself toward the end of each drying episode. The spatial patterns of surface temperature revealed by NS001 were not preserved even within a single day. The cross-correlations among the two kinds of images and the vegetation index NDVI were normally poor. This suggests that different processes of vegetation growth, and of the near-surface soil water and energy budgets.

Chen, Daoyi↗

Evaluation of a Model-Based Groundwater Drought Indicator in the Conterminous U.S.

Monitoring groundwater drought using land surface models is a valuable alternative given the current lack of systematic in situ measurements at continental and global scales and the low resolution of current remote sensing based groundwater data. However, uncertainties inherent to land surface models may impede drought detection, and thus should be assessed using independent data sources. In this study, we evaluated a groundwater drought index (GWI) derived from monthly groundwater storage output from the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) using a GWI similarly derived from in situ groundwater observations. Groundwater observations were obtained from unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in eight regions of the central and northeastern U.S. Regional average GWI derived from CLSM exhibited strong correlation with that from observation wells, with correlation coefficients between 0.43 and 0.92. GWI from both in situ data and CLSM was generally better correlated with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at 12 and 24 month timescales than at shorter timescales, but it varied depending on climate conditions. The correlation between CLSM derived GWI and SPI generally decreases with increasing depth to the water table, which in turn depends on both bedrock depth (a CLSM parameter) and mean annual precipitation. The persistence of CLSM derived GWI is spatially varied and again shows a strong influence of depth to groundwater. CLSM derived GWI generally persists longer than GWI derived from in situ data, due at least in part to the inability of coarse model inputs to capture high frequency meteorological variability at local scales. The study also showed that groundwater can have a significant impact on soil moisture persistence where the water table is shallow. Soil moisture persistence was estimated to be longer in the eastern U.S. than in the west, in contrast to previous findings that were based on models that did not represent groundwater. Assimilation of terrestrial water storage data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission improved the correlation between CLSM based regional average GWI and that based on in situ data in six of the eight regions. Practical issues regarding the application of GRACE assimilated groundwater storage for drought detection are discussed. An important conclusion of this study is that model parameters that control the depth to the water table, including bedrock depth, strongly influence the evolution and persistence of simulated groundwater and require careful configuration for drought monitoring.

Evaluation↗

Evaluation of a Model-Based Groundwater Drought Indicator in the Conterminous U.S.

Monitoring groundwater drought using land surface models is a valuable alternative given the current lack of systematic in situ measurements at continental and global scales and the low resolution of current remote sensing based groundwater data. However, uncertainties inherent to land surface models may impede drought detection, and thus should be assessed using independent data sources. In this study, we evaluated a groundwater drought index (GWI) derived from monthly groundwater storage output from the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) using a GWI similarly derived from in situ groundwater observations. Groundwater observations were obtained from unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in eight regions of the central and northeastern U.S. Regional average GWI derived from CLSM exhibited strong correlation with that from observation wells, with correlation coefficients between 0.43 and 0.92. GWI from both in situ data and CLSM was generally better correlated with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at 12 and 24 month timescales than at shorter timescales, but it varied depending on climate conditions. The correlation between CLSM derived GWI and SPI generally decreases with increasing depth to the water table, which in turn depends on both bedrock depth (a CLSM parameter) and mean annual precipitation. The persistence of CLSM derived GWI is spatially varied and again shows a strong influence of depth to groundwater. CLSM derived GWI generally persists longer than GWI derived from in situ data, due at least in part to the inability of coarse model inputs to capture high frequency meteorological variability at local scales. The study also showed that groundwater can have a significant impact on soil moisture persistence where the water table is shallow. Soil moisture persistence was estimated to be longer in the eastern U.S. than in the west, in contrast to previous findings that were based on models that did not represent groundwater. Assimilation of terrestrial water storage data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission improved the correlation between CLSM based regional average GWI and that based on in situ data in six of the eight regions. Practical issues regarding the application of GRACE assimilated groundwater storage for drought detection are discussed. An important conclusion of this study is that model parameters that control the depth to the water table, including bedrock depth, strongly influence the evolution and persistence of simulated groundwater and require careful configuration for drought monitoring.

hydrology↗

Systematic Errors in Simulated L-Band Brightness Temperature in the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Analysis

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission has been providing L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperature (Tb) observations since April 2015. By assimilating the Tb observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model using a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides global, 3-hourly, 9-km resolution estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture with ~2.5-day latency for use in research and applications. The EnKF-based L4_SM analysis assumes unbiased forecast errors. Consequently, the seasonally varying bias between the model forecast Tb and the observed values is removed prior to the assimilation of the SMAP Tb observations. The L4_SM system is thus designed to only correct errors in synoptic-scale and interannual variations from the long-term mean seasonal cycle while maintaining the model’s (possibly wrong) climatology. In this paper, we examine the Tb observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals from the L4_SM Version 7 product (computed after rescaling the Tb observations to the mean seasonal cycle of the simulated Tb). The long-term average of the Tb O-F residuals has a global mean of only 0.13 K and locally small values, ranging from -1 to 3 K. The model forecast Tb, however, still exhibits undesirable systematic errors relative to the (rescaled) Tb observations. At some locations, the time-average Tb O-F values strongly depend on surface soil moisture (SM). At the Yanco SMAP core validation site, for example, the Tb O-F residuals typically range from 5 to 15 K under dry soil moisture conditions (SM < 0.15 m3 m-3) yet are predominantly negative under wet soil moisture conditions (SM > 0.25 m3 m-3), with values ranging from 0 to -40 K. This results in soil moisture analysis increments that persistently make the soil drier under dry SM conditions and persistently make the soil wetter under wet SM conditions, suggesting an error in the dynamic range of the simulated Tb, soil moisture or soil temperature. In this paper, we describe the higher-order systematic Tb forecast errors in more detail, examine their impact on the L4_SM product quality, and explore potential avenues to improve the L4_SM algorithm.

Rolf Reichle↗

Examination of L-Band Brightness Temperature Forecasts in the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Analysis

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission [4] has been providing L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave brightness temperature (Tb) observations since April 2015. By assimilating the Tb observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model [5] using a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office generates the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, which provides global, 3-hourly, 9-km resolution estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture with ~2.5-day latency for use in research and applications [6]. The L4_SM product also includes estimates of soil temperature, land surface fluxes, and assimilation diagnostics such as the model forecast and observed Tb values [7]. The output from the L4_SM system is routinely monitored by the L4_SM team. Such monitoring provides valuable information; instances of unusually large Tb observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals can indicate events during which soil moisture conditions are poorly described in the land modeling system [7,8]. For example, repeated occurrences of very large Tb O-F values in central Australia were traced back to deficiencies in the gauge-based precipitation product used in the land modeling system through L4_SM Version 5; this discovery prompted the use, beginning in Version 6, of satellite- and gauge-based precipitation observations outside of North America [9]. Recently, a statistical analysis of the Tb O-F residuals revealed systematic errors in the “tau-omega” L-band radiative transfer model that converts the land-model simulated soil moisture and temperature into the forecast Tb prior to the L4_SM analysis. The L4_SM analysis is built on the ensemble Kalman filter and assumes unbiased forecast errors. The presence of systematic Tb forecast errors could thus adversely impact the quality of the analyzed soil moisture. In this paper, we examine the Tb O-F residuals of the latest Version 7 L4_SM data (Science Version ID Vv7030 and Vv7032) [10,11,12]. In the L4_SM Version 7 algorithm, key parameters of the L-band radiative transfer model, including soil roughness, scattering albedo, and a (seasonally varying) climatology of vegetation opacity, are obtained from the SMAP Level-2 Radiometer retrieval product (Version 5) [1]. Additionally, we also use ground measurements of surface soil moisture and soil temperature from the SMAP core validation sites as in situ reference of soil conditions [2,3]. As part of the L4_SM system calibration, the seasonally-varying bias between the model forecast Tb and the observed values is removed prior to the assimilation of the SMAP Tb observations [7]. That is, the L4_SM system is designed to only correct errors in synoptic-scale and interannual variations from the long-term mean seasonal cycle while maintaining the model’s (potentially erroneous) climatology. The Tb O-F residuals examined here are thus computed using SMAP Tb observations after they are rescaled to the mean seasonal cycle of Tb from the modeling system without SMAP data assimilation. Consequently, the long-term average of the Tb O-F residuals has a global mean of only 0.13 K and locally small values, ranging from -1 to 3 K. Despite the small time-average values of the Tb O-F residuals, the model forecast Tb was nevertheless found to exhibit undesirable systematic errors. At some locations, the time-average Tb O-F values strongly depend on surface soil moisture (SM). At the Yanco SMAP core validation site, for example, the Tb O-F residuals typically range from 5 to 15 K under dry soil moisture conditions (SM < 0.15 m3 m-3) yet are predominantly negative under wet soil moisture conditions (SM > 0.25 m3 m-3), with values ranging from 0 to -40 K. This results in soil moisture analysis increments that persistently make the soil drier under dry SM conditions and persistently make the soil wetter under wet SM conditions, suggesting an error in the dynamic range of the simulated Tb, soil moisture or soil temperature. In this paper, we describe the higher-order systematic Tb forecast errors in more detail, examine their impact on the L4_SM product quality, and explore potential avenues to further improve the L4_SM algorithm.

Rolf Reichle↗

Enzyme activity in terrestrial soil in relation to exploration of the Martian surface

Urease activity in soil is persistent for long periods under low water, low temperature, and sterile regimes, and it was suggested that some form of enzyme-protective mechanism exists in soil. Dublin soil was extracted by sonication in water followed by adding a mixture of salts. Urease activity is associated with the organo-mineral complex thus obtained and is resistant to the activities of proteolytic enzymes. Clay free soil organic matter prepared subsequently by filtration also exhibits urease activity which is resistant to proteolysis. Models consisting of enzymes with bentonite and lignin were found to mimic this resistance to proteolysis. A model system is presented which suggests both the origin and location of soil ureases and a reason for their persistence in nature.

Ardakani, M. S.↗

Drought Relief and Reversal Over North America from 1500 to 2016

Season-to-season persistence of soil moisture drought varies across North America. Such inter-seasonal autocorrelation can have modest skill in forecasting future conditions several months in advance. Because robust instrumental observations of precipitation span less than 100 years, the temporal stability of the relationship between seasonal moisture anomalies is uncertain. The North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas (NASPA) is a gridded network of separately reconstructed cool (December-April) and warm (May-July) season precipitation series and offers new insights on the intra-annual changes in drought for up to 2,000 years. Here, the NASPA precipitation reconstructions are rescaled to represent the long-term soil moisture balance during the cool season and three-month long atmospheric moisture during the warm season. These rescaled seasonal reconstructions are then used to quantify the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of cool season drought that was relieved or reversed during the following summer months. The adjusted seasonal reconstructions reproduce the general patterns of large-scale drought amelioration and termination in the instrumental record during the 20th century and are used to estimate relief and reversals for the most skillfully reconstructed past 500-years. Sub-continental to continental scale reversals of cool season drought in the following warm season have been rare, but the reconstructions display periods prior to the instrumental data of increased reversal probabilities for the Mid-Atlantic region and the US Southwest. Drought relief at the continental scale may arise in part from macroscale ocean-atmosphere processes, while the smaller scale regional reversals may reflect land-surface feedbacks and stochastic variability.

Drought↗

Enzyme activity in terrestrial soil in relation to exploration of the Martian surface

An exploration was made of enzyme activities in soil, including abundance, persistence and localization of these activities. An attempt was made to develop procedures for the detection and assaying of enzymes in soils suitable for presumptive tests for life in planetary soils. A suitable extraction procedure for soil enzymes was developed and measurements were made of activities in extracts in order to study how urease is complexed in soil organic matter. Mathematical models were developed, based on enzyme action and microbial growth in soil, for rates of oxidation of nitrogen as nitrogen compounds are moved downward in soil by water flow. These biogeochemical models should be applicable to any percolating system, with suitable modification for special features, such as oxygen concetrations, and types of hydrodynamic flow.

Ardakani, M. S.↗

Olivine Dissolution and Formation of Secondary phases in Ultramafic Soils

Introduction: Olivine has been proposed as an indicator for the duration of water-rock interaction within Martian rocks and sediments [1-3]. The use of olivine as a mineralogical indicator for past aqueous alteration on Mars requires interpretation of a complex combination of factors including pH, temperature, and composition [5,6]. Here, we examine the persistence of natural olivine within terrestrial ultramafic soils (Fe/Mg-rich, Al-poor) developing under different climatic conditions and the incipient dissolution of emplaced forsterite (Fo) and fayalite (Fa) surfaces to investigate environmental effects on incipient olivine dissolution, olivine persistence in soils, and formation of secondary phases. Methods: Field Sites. We examined olivine weathering and secondary material formation in ultramafic soils at 6 sites in the Klamath Mountains (KM) of northern California with a mean annual temperature of ~12.8℃ and precipitation of ~55.7-95.4 cm/year [7], and soil pH of ~6.5-7.3; 4 sites in the Tablelands (TB) of Newfoundland, Canada with a mean annual temperature of <3.9℃ and precipitation of ~120.0 cm/year [8], and soil pH of ~7.7; and at 3 sites at Pickhandle Gulch (PG), Nevada with a mean annual temperature of ~14.4℃ and precipitation of ~14.1 cm/year [7], and soil pH of ~8.5. Sampling sites span an age range of ~12.1-50+ kya in the Klamath Mountains [9,10] and ~13-30 kya in the Tablelands [11]. Pickhandle Gulch sites are undated. Parent Material and Soil Analyses. Polished thin sections of bulk soil prepared by Wagner Petrographic, Inc were carbon-coated and analyzed on a JEOL 2100 SEM in back-scattered electron mode in the EMIL lab at UNLV and at the 13-ID-E synchrotron beamline at Argonne National Laboratory using µXRF, µXRD, and XAS. Soil and parent material samples were powdered in a Fritsch pulverisette and analyzed by XRD and soil by VNIR. Soil preparation is further described in [12]. Disk Preparation, Burial, and Collection. Fo disks were cut from a column prepared via hot-pressing and Fa disks by sintering synthetic fayalite powder, see [13] for detail. Disks were polished to a 0.25-micron level with diamond grit. Disks were buried in 3 KM soils, 4 TB soils, and 3 PG soils, collected after exactly 365 days, and washed gently with 100% reagent grade ethanol to remove potential adhered soil material. Weathered disks and soil samples were stored in a -20℃ freezer until analysis. Unaltered control disks prepared identically to the buried disks were stored at -20℃ for the duration of the experiment. Disk Analyses. One Fo and Fa disk from each climate zone was analyzed on a variable pressure Zeiss Supra 40VP SEM at Northern Arizona University. A separate Fo and Fa disk from each climate zone was analyzed by XPS using a Physical Electronics VersaProbe II at the Penn State Univ. Materials Characterization Lab after a Na-dodecyl sulfate wash and ozonation to remove carbon contamination as in [14]. VNIR measurements were conducted at Johnson Space Center using an ASD FieldSpec3 under ambient lab conditions on a separate Fo and Fa disk from each climate zone. One separate Fo and Fa control sample was analyzed for each technique for comparison with weathered samples. XPS uncertainty was determined from 5 repeat measurements on controls. Results: Bedrock and Soil Results Olivine is present in the parent material in the KM and TB. Olivine is found in ~12.1 ka KM soils but is absent from all older soils, while persisting into the oldest (>20 ka) TB soil (Figure 1). In both locations, olivine is found as cores surrounded by a serpentine rind (Figure 2). VNIR spectra from the analyzed soils possess strong OH-associated spectral features at ~2.33 µm indicating the presence of Mg-rich phyllosilicates as well as ferric-oxide features at ~0.92 µm in the KM (Figure 3). Primary crystalline silicate grains mostly incorporate Fe2+, while poorly crystalline weathering rinds are best fit by ferric oxide XAS standards (Figure 4). µXRF also shows that Fe and Ni concentrate in weathering rinds and Cr remains within interior silicate grains (Figure 4). Buried Sample Results All Fo surfaces exhibited formation of dissolution features including shallow pitting not observed on controls. Dissolution features were most visually widespread on the KM disk (Figure 5). Leaching of Mg from KM and TB Fo disks was evident from <1.6 Mg/Si ratios measured by XPS (Figure 6). Fe-rich precipitates in SEM (Figure 5) and Fe presence in XPS scans (Figure 6) indicate Fe deposition onto KM and TB Fo disk surfaces. The appearance of a spectral feature at 0.55 µm in the VNIR spectra from the TB Fo suggests this Fe is ferric (Figure 7). The PG Fo appears least altered, with minimal formation of dissolution features in SEM (Figure 5), a Mg/Si ratio inconsistent with leaching (~2) (Figure 6), and VNIR spectra almost identical to the control sample. Analysis of Fa surfaces is ongoing. The higher temperatures and more acidic pH in the KM soils likely drive the faster dissolution of the Fo disks described above. While the TB soils experience greater precipitation than in the KM, the cooler temperatures and more basic soil pH facilitate observable but more limited alteration. The dry climate and basic soil pH at PG lead to minimal dissolution of the PG disk surfaces.

A D Feldman↗

Chemical rings of lunar basins from orbital X-ray data

Chemical patterns related to basin structure have been observed in digital maps of Mg/Al, Mg/Si and Al/Si variations on the nearside lunar surface. A large part of the inner topographic ring of the Smythii basin is distinguishable chemically in the orbital X-ray data because it is more anorthositic than the surrounding soil. The correlations between the chemistry and morphology of the Symthii basin, supported by X-ray data at Langrenus crater, indicate that: (1) the chemical record of basin-formation in pre-Nectarian times persists in lunar soils despite continuous meteorite bombardment of the moon; (2) strata of contrasting chemistry were excavated on the western side of the Smythii basin, whereas the lithology east of the basin is homogeneous to the depths sampled; (3) the geochemical boundary between the provinces of the eastern near side and far side may represent only surficial differences; and (4) the extent of primary ejecta from the younger Crisium basin was insufficient to mask the chemical features created by the Smythii impact approximately one Crisium-basin diameter away.

Andre, C. G.↗

Inferring Soil Moisture Memory from Streamflow Observations Using a Simple Water Balance Model

Soil moisture is known for its integrative behavior and resulting memory characteristics. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for weeks or even months into the future, making initial soil moisture a potentially important contributor to skill in weather forecasting. A major difficulty when investigating soil moisture and its memory using observations is the sparse availability of long-term measurements and their limited spatial representativeness. In contrast, there is an abundance of long-term streamflow measurements for catchments of various sizes across the world. We investigate in this study whether such streamflow measurements can be used to infer and characterize soil moisture memory in respective catchments. Our approach uses a simple water balance model in which evapotranspiration and runoff ratios are expressed as simple functions of soil moisture; optimized functions for the model are determined using streamflow observations, and the optimized model in turn provides information on soil moisture memory on the catchment scale. The validity of the approach is demonstrated with data from three heavily monitored catchments. The approach is then applied to streamflow data in several small catchments across Switzerland to obtain a spatially distributed description of soil moisture memory and to show how memory varies, for example, with altitude and topography.

Soil Moisture↗

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability and Land Surface Processes

Atmospheric chaos severely limits the predictability of precipitation on subseasonal to interannual timescales. Hope for accurate long-term precipitation forecasts lies with simulating atmospheric response to components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, that can be predicted beyond a couple of weeks. Indeed, seasonal forecasts centers now rely heavily on forecasts of ocean circulation. Soil moisture, another slow component of the Earth system, is relatively ignored by the operational seasonal forecasting community. It is starting, however, to garner more attention. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for months. Because these anomalies can have a strong impact on evaporation and other surface energy fluxes, and because the atmosphere may respond consistently to anomalies in the surface fluxes, an accurate soil moisture initialization in a forecast system has the potential to provide additional forecast skill. This potential has motivated a number of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) studies of soil moisture and its contribution to variability in the climate system. Some of these studies even suggest that in continental midlatitudes during summer, oceanic impacts on precipitation are quite small relative to soil moisture impacts. The model results, though, are strongly model-dependent, with some models showing large impacts and others showing almost none at all. A validation of the model results with observations thus naturally suggests itself, but this is exceedingly difficult. The necessary contemporaneous soil moisture, evaporation, and precipitation measurements at the large scale are virtually non-existent, and even if they did exist, showing statistically that soil moisture affects rainfall would be difficult because the other direction of causality - wherein rainfall affects soil moisture - is unquestionably active and is almost certainly dominant. Nevertheless, joint analyses of observations and AGCM results do reveal some suggestions of land-atmosphere feedback in the observational record, suggestions that soil moisture can affect precipitation over seasonal timescales and across certain large continental areas. The strength of this observed feedback in nature is not large but is still significant enough to be potentially useful, e.g., for forecasts. This talk will address all of these issues. It will begin with a brief overview of land surface modeling in atmospheric models but will then focus on recent research - using both observations and models - into the impact of land surface processes on variability in the climate system.

Koster, Randal↗

Role of soil moisture in maintaining droughts

The influence of soil moisture on the persistence of an ongoing drought was investigated. The case study of drought of the summer of 1980 was selected. The difference in the simulation of two identical twin runs: one with the climatological normal soil moisture and the other with anomalous soil moisture for drought conditions, were examined on the mean monthly circulation. It is found that a reduction in soil moisture did produce a corresponding reduction in precipitation. The pattern of the rainfall anomaly however, was not identical to the soil moisture (evapotranspiration) anomaly but had a good resemblance with observations.

Sud, Y. C.↗

Soil Moisture Memory in Climate Models

Water balance considerations at the soil surface lead to an equation that relates the autocorrelation of soil moisture in climate models to (1) seasonality in the statistics of the atmospheric forcing, (2) the variation of evaporation with soil moisture, (3) the variation of runoff with soil moisture, and (4) persistence in the atmospheric forcing, as perhaps induced by land atmosphere feedback. Geographical variations in the relative strengths of these factors, which can be established through analysis of model diagnostics and which can be validated to a certain extent against observations, lead to geographical variations in simulated soil moisture memory and thus, in effect, to geographical variations in seasonal precipitation predictability associated with soil moisture. The use of the equation to characterize controls on soil moisture memory is demonstrated with data from the modeling system of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project.

Koster, Randal D.↗

Numerical experiments related to the summer 1980 U.S. heat wave

The NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres fourth-order GCM was used in a series of medium-range numerical forecast experiments in order to improve understanding of the severe summer 1980 heat wave over the U.S. The results show that the derived soil moisture anomalies in the summer of 1980 contributed positively to the model's simulation of the heat wave maintenance, and suggest that once a region of reduced soil moisture is established, it tends to persist and maintain warmer and drier conditions. The lower soil moisture values resulted in reduced evaporation, higher ground temperatures, increased sensible heat flux from ground to air, higher surface air temperature, lower sea-level pressure, and higher 500-mb height. The effects of North Pacific sea-surface-temperature anomalies were mostly opposite to those of the soil-moisture anomalies: enhanced northerly flow of cooler drier air, increased evaporation, lower ground and air temperature, higher sea level pressure, and lower 500 mb heights over the Great Plains.

Wolfson, N.↗