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At least 19 records

Predicting spring phenology in deciduous broadleaf forests: NEON phenology forecasting community challenge

Accurate models are important to predict how global climate change will continue to alter plant phenology and near-term ecological forecasts can be used to iteratively improve models and evaluate predictions that are made a priori. The Ecological Forecasting Initiative's National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Forecasting Challenge, is an open challenge to the community to forecast daily greenness values, measured through digital images collected by the PhenoCam Network at NEON sites before the data are collected. For the first round of the challenge, which is presented here, we forecasted canopy greenness throughout the spring at eight deciduous broadleaf sites to investigate when, where, and for what model type phenology forecast skill is highest. A total of 192,536 predictions were submitted, representing eighteen models, including a persistence and a day of year mean null models. We found that overall forecast skill was highest when forecasting earlier in the greenup curve compared to the end, for shorter lead times, for sites that greened up earlier, and when submitting forecasts during times other than near budburst. The models based on day of year historical mean had the highest predictive skill across the challenge period. In this first round of the challenge, by synthesizing across forecasts, we started to elucidate what factors affect the predictive skill of near-term phenology forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Phenology of Photosynthesis in Winter‐Dormant Temperate and Boreal Forests: Long‐Term Observations From Flux Towers and Quantitative Evaluation of Phenology Models

Abstract We examined the seasonality of photosynthesis in 46 evergreen needleleaf (evergreen needleleaf forests (ENF)) and deciduous broadleaf (deciduous broadleaf forests (DBF)) forests across North America and Eurasia. We quantified the onset and end (Start GPP and End GPP ) of photosynthesis in spring and autumn based on the response of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 to sunlight. To test the hypothesis that snowmelt is required for photosynthesis to begin, these were compared with end of snowmelt derived from soil temperature. ENF forests achieved 10% of summer photosynthetic capacity ∼3 weeks before end of snowmelt, while DBF forests achieved that capacity ∼4 weeks afterward. DBF forests increased photosynthetic capacity in spring faster (1.95% d −1 ) than ENF (1.10% d −1 ), and their active season length (End GPP –Start GPP ) was ∼50 days shorter. We hypothesized that warming has influenced timing of the photosynthesis season. We found minimal evidence for long‐term change in Start GPP , End GPP , or air temperature, but their interannual anomalies were significantly correlated. Warmer weather was associated with earlier Start GPP (1.3–2.5 days °C −1 ) or later End GPP (1.5–1.8 days °C −1 , depending on forest type and month). Finally, we tested whether existing phenological models could predict Start GPP and End GPP . For ENF forests, air temperature‐ and daylength‐based models provided best predictions for Start GPP , while a chilling‐degree‐day model was best for End GPP . The root mean square errors (RMSE) between predicted and observed Start GPP and End GPP were 11.7 and 11.3 days, respectively. For DBF forests, temperature‐ and daylength‐based models yielded the best results (RMSE 6.3 and 10.5 days).

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Tonoplast Sucrose Transporter SUT4-Dependent Sugar Partitioning Modulates Phenological Transitions and Reproductive Success in Poplar

Climate uncertainty is intensifying the need for greater plasticity in carbohydrate reserve utilization to support winter survival and spring growth in woody perennials. In poplar, the single-copy SUT4, which encodes a tonoplast-localized sucrose transporter, and the SUT5/SUT6 genome duplicates, which encode plasma membrane-localized transporters, are expressed year-round, with SUT4 showing the highest expression during cool seasons. Given its role in vacuolar sucrose efflux and winter-predominant expression, SUT4 may play a key role in modulating seasonal carbohydrate dynamics. While SUT4-knockdown and knockout effects have been studied under greenhouse conditions, their impact under field conditions remains unexplored. Here, we report a field-based study comparing CRISPR knockout mutants of winter-expressed SUT4 and SUT5/SUT6 in Populus tremula x alba. We show that sut4, but not sut5/6, mutants exhibited earlier autumn leaf senescence, delayed spring bud flush, reduced stem growth, and altered sugar partitioning in winter xylem and bark relative to controls. After 2 years in the field, all genotypes flowered before leaf flush in early spring; however, sut4 mutants produced sterile ovules despite developing normal-looking catkins. Metabolic profiling revealed disrupted sucrose and raffinose dynamics in elongating sut4 catkins. This was accompanied by transcriptomic signatures of elevated stress and downregulation of proanthocyanidin biosynthesis and circadian clock genes. These findings highlight the critical role of SUT4 in coordinating sugar allocation, stress responses, and seasonal development in poplar.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DeepPhenoMem V1.0: deep learning modelling of canopy greenness dynamics accounting for multi-variate meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology

Abstract. Vegetation phenology plays a key role in controlling the seasonality of ecosystem processes that modulate carbon, water and energy fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere. Accurate modelling of vegetation phenology in the interplay of Earth's surface and the atmosphere is thus crucial to understand how the coupled system will respond to and shape climatic changes. Phenology is controlled by meteorological conditions at different timescales: on the one hand, changes in key meteorological variables (temperature, water, radiation) can have immediate effects on the vegetation development; on the other hand, phenological changes can be driven by past environmental conditions, known as memory effects. However, the processes governing meteorological memory effects on phenology are not completely understood, resulting in their limited performance of vegetation phenology represented in land surface models. A deep learning model, specifically a long short-term memory network (LSTM), has the potential to capture and model the meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology. Here, we apply the LSTM to model the vegetation phenology using meteorological drivers and high-temporal-resolution canopy greenness observations through digital repeat photography by the PhenoCam network. We compare a multiple linear regression model, a no-memory-effect LSTM model and a full-memory-effect LSTM model to predict the whole seasonal greenness trajectory and the corresponding phenological transition dates across 50 sites and 317 site years during 2009–2018, covering deciduous broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands. Results show that the deep learning model outperforms the multiple linear regression model, and the full-memory-effect LSTM model performs better than the no-memory-effect model for all three plant function types (median R2 of 0.878, 0.957 and 0.955 for broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands). We also find that the full-memory-effect LSTM model is capable of predicting the seasonal dynamic variations of canopy greenness and reproducing trends in shifting phenological transition dates. We also performed a sensitivity analysis of the full-memory-effect LSTM model to assess its plausibility, revealing its coherence with established knowledge of vegetation phenology sensitivity to meteorological conditions, particularly changes in temperature. Our study highlights that (1) multi-variate meteorological memory effects play a crucial role in vegetation phenology, and (2) deep learning opens up new avenues for improving the representation of vegetation phenological processes in land surface models via a hybrid modelling approach.

Geology↗

Fine-scale landscape characteristics, vegetation composition, and snowmelt timing control phenological heterogeneity across low-Arctic tundra landscapes in Western Alaska

The Arctic is warming at over twice the rate of the rest of the Earth, resulting in significant changes in vegetation seasonality that regulates annual carbon, water, and energy fluxes. However, a crucial knowledge gap exists regarding the intricate interplay among climate, permafrost, and vegetation that generates high phenology variability across extensive tundra landscapes. This oversight has led to significant discrepancies in phenological patterns observed across warming experiments, long-term ecological observations, and satellite and modeling studies, undermining our ability to understand and forecast plant responses to climate change in the Arctic. To address this problem, we assessed plant phenology across three low-Arctic tundra landscapes on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, using a combination of in-situ phenocam observations and high-resolution PlanetScope CubeSat data. We examined the patterns and drivers of phenological diversity across the landscape by (1) quantifying phenological diversity among dominant plant function types (PFTs) and (2) modeling the interrelations between plant phenology and fine-scale landscape features, such as topography, snowmelt, and vegetation. Our findings reveal that both spring and fall phenology varied significantly across Arctic PFTs, accounting for about 25%–44% and 34%–59% of the landscape-scale variation in the start of spring [SOS] and start of fall [SOF], respectively. Deciduous tall shrubs (e.g. alder and willow) had a later SOS (~7 d behind the mean of other PFTs), but completed leaf expansion (within 2 weeks) considerably faster compared to other PFTs. We modeled the landscape-scale variation in SOS and SOF using Random Forest, which showed that plant phenology can be accurately captured by a suite of variables related to vegetation composition, topographic characteristics, and snowmelt timing (variance explained: 53%–68% for SOS and 59%–82% for SOF). Notably, snowmelt timing was a crucial determinant of SOS, a factor often neglected in most spring phenology models. Our study highlights the impact of fine-scale vegetation composition, snow seasonality, and landscape features on tundra phenological heterogeneity. Improved understanding of such considerable intra-site phenological variability and associated proximate controls across extensive Arctic landscapes offers critical insights for representation of tundra phenology in process models and associated impact assessments with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The underappreciated importance of solar radiation in constraining spring phenology of temperate ecosystems in the Northern and Eastern United States

Spring phenology of temperate ecosystems is highly sensitive to climate change, generating various impacts on many important terrestrial surface biophysical processes. Although various prognostic models relying on environmental variables of temperature and photoperiod have been developed for spring phenology, comprehensive ecosystem-scale evaluations over large landscapes and long-time periods remain lacking. Further, environmental variables other than temperature and photoperiod might also importantly constrain spring phenology modelling but remain under-investigation. To address these issues, we leveraged around 20-years datasets of environmental variables (from Daymet and GLDAS products) and the spring phenology metric (i.e., the greenup date) respectively derived from MODIS and PhenoCams across 108 sites in the Northern and Eastern United States. We firstly cross-compared MODIS-derived greenup date with official PhenoCams product with high accuracy (R 2 = 0.70). Then, we evaluated the three prognostic models (i.e., Growing Degree Date (GDD), Sequential (SEQ) and optimality-based (OPT)) with MODIS-derived spring phenology, assessed the model residuals and their associations with soil moisture, rainfall, and solar radiation, and revised the two photoperiod-relevant models (SEQ, OPT) by replacing the daylength variable with solar radiation, which was found to contribute the most to model residuals. We found that 1) all models demonstrated good capability in characterizing spring phenology, with OPT performing the best (RMSE = 8.04 ± 5.05 days), followed by SEQ (RMSE = 10.57 ± 7.77 days) and GDD (RMSE = 10.84 ± 8.42 days), 2) all models displayed high model residuals showing tight correlation with solar radiation (r = 0.45–0.75), and 3) the revised models that included solar radiation significantly performed better with an RMSE reduction by 22.08%. Such results are likely because solar radiation better constrains early growing season plant photosynthesis than photoperiod, supporting the hypothesis of spring phenology as an adaptive strategy to maximize photosynthetic carbon gain (approximated by solar radiation) while minimizing frost damage risk (captured by temperature). Collectively, our study here reveals the underappreciated importance of solar radiation in constraining spring phenology of temperate ecosystems, and suggests ways to improve spring phenology modelling and other phenology-related ecological processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PiCAM: A Raspberry Pi-based open-source, low-power camera system for monitoring plant phenology in Arctic environments

Time-lapse cameras have been widely used as a tool to monitor the timing of seasonal vegetation growth. These simple, relatively inexpensive systems can provide high-frequency observations of leaf development and demography which are critical data sets needed to characterize plant phenology from species to landscapes. This is important for understanding how plants are responding to global changes, as well as for validating satellite-derived phenology products. However, in remote regions including the high-latitude Arctic, deploying time-lapse cameras could be challenging. The remoteness and lack of widespread power and telecommunications infrastructure limit options for the installation, maintenance and retrieval of data and equipment, and make it difficult for cameras to survive in extreme weather (e.g. long cold winters). To improve our understanding of Arctic phenology, new technologies are required to address these challenges. Here, we present a novel, low-power, compact, lightweight time-lapse camera system, called power-interval camera automation module (PiCAM). The PiCAM was designed with explicit consideration to simplify deployment (i.e. without a need for external power supplies) of camera systems and to address the challenges of camera survival in harsh Arctic environments. In this paper, we describe the design, setup and technical details of the PiCAM and provide a roadmap for how to build and operate these systems. As proof of concept, we deployed 26 PiCAMs at three low-Arctic tundra sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska in early August 2021 for characterizing Arctic plant phenology. Of the 26 PiCAMs, 70% remained active at the point of our revisit in late July 2022 despite the extreme winter temperatures they experienced (< –30°C, heavy snow cover). We extracted key plant phenology metrics from the PiCAMs and captured strong differences across key Arctic plant species. We showed that the PiCAM has the potential to be widely used for monitoring plant phenology across the broader Arctic region, addressing the need for ground-based understanding of Arctic phenological diversity to develop knowledge of plant response to climate change and to validate remote sensing products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate lags and genetics determine phenology in quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides )

Spatiotemporal patterns of phenology may be affected by mosaics of environmental and genetic variation. Environmental drivers may have temporally lagged impacts, but patterns and mechanisms remain poorly known. Here, we combine multiple genomic, remotely sensed, and physically modeled datasets to determine the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of canopy phenology in quaking aspen, a widespread clonal dioecious tree species with diploid and triploid cytotypes. We show that over 391 km 2 of southwestern Colorado: greenup date, greendown date, and growing season length vary by weeks and differ across sexes, cytotypes, and genotypes; phenology has high phenotypic plasticity and heritabilities of 31–61% (interquartile range); and snowmelt date, soil moisture, and air temperature predict phenology, at temporal lags of up to 3 yr. Our study shows that lagged environmental effects are needed to explain phenological variation and that the effect of cytotype on phenology is obscured by its correlation with topography. Phenological patterns are consistent with responses to multiyear accumulation of carbon deficit or hydraulic damage.

carbon allocation↗

Widespread spring phenology effects on drought recovery of Northern Hemisphere ecosystems

The time required for an ecosystem to recover from severe drought is a key component of ecological resilience. The phenology effects on drought recovery are, however, poorly understood. These effects centre on how phenology variations impact biophysical feedbacks, vegetation growth and, ultimately, recovery itself. Using multiple remotely sensed datasets, we found that more than half of ecosystems in mid- and high-latitudinal Northern Hemisphere failed to recover from extreme droughts within a single growing season. Earlier spring phenology in the drought year slowed drought recovery when extreme droughts occurred in mid-growing season. Delayed spring phenology in the subsequent year slowed drought recovery for all vegetation types (with importance of spring phenology ranging from 46% to 58%). The phenology effects on drought recovery were comparable to or larger than other well-known postdrought climatic factors. These results strongly suggest that the interactions between vegetation phenology and drought must be incorporated into Earth system models to accurately quantify ecosystem resilience.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SPRUCE Ground Observations of Phenology in Experimental Plots, 2023

This data set consists of one comma separated (*.csv) file containing phenological transition dates, as derived from direct observations of vegetative and reproductive phenology recorded by a human observer, from the SPRUCE experiment during 2023 (2023-03-30 to 2023-11-29), the eighth full year of whole-ecosystem warming (Hanson et al. 2017). Both spring and autumn phenological events are included. Since April 2016, human observers have been directly tracking the phenology of both woody and herbaceous species on a weekly schedule within the SPRUCE experimental chambers, these data are reported in annual ground observations data sets (see Related Data Sets). The observed date reported here is the first survey date in 2023 on which an event/phenophase was definitively observed. This data set also contains a companion file in HTML (*.html) containing figures showing the relationship between the day of year and temperature treatment for different phenological phases by species for 2023.

Marcell Experimental Forest↗

SPRUCE Ground Observations of Phenology in Experimental Plots, 2024

This data set consists of one comma separated (*.csv) file containing phenological transition dates, as derived from direct observations of vegetative and reproductive phenology recorded by a human observer, from the SPRUCE experiment during 2024 (2025-03-06 to 2025-11-21), the ninth full year of whole-ecosystem warming (Hanson et al. 2017). Both spring and autumn phenological events are included. Since April 2016, human observers have been directly tracking the phenology of both woody and herbaceous species on a weekly schedule within the SPRUCE experimental chambers, these data are reported in annual ground observations data sets (see Related Data Sets). The observed date reported here is the first survey date in 2024 on which an event/phenophase was definitively observed. This data set also contains a companion file in HTML (*.html) containing figures showing the relationship between the day of year and temperature treatment for different phenological phases by species for 2024.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SPRUCE Manual Phenology Observations and Photographs Beginning in 2011

This dataset contains periodic (most often weekly during the active season) observations of the phenology of vegetation bud swell, leaf out, leaf off, flowering, fruiting and the nature of snow cover and ice presence from the 2011-2023 growing seasons. These observations are supplemented by the collection of images from periodic photographs of the experimental plots (e.g., panoramic photographs) or images within plots (e.g., pictures of vegetation development or community status within defined ground footprints such as flux collars). A summary of vegetation phenology and snow and ice presence form 2011-2016 is also provided. Related data sets are also available that summarize site phenology (see Related Datasets). This dataset contains 336 phenology notes files in *.pdf format, 2284 phenology photos in *.jpg format, and three companion files containing phenology summaries, methodological, other contextual information. Early observations were conducted throughout the S1-Bog with an emphasis on the southern end of the bog. Observations collected since the spring of 2013 have focused on the southern end of the S1-Bog and the plots 2 through 21 of the SPRUCE experiment. Beginning in 2015 those observations included assessments within the enclosure space surrounding plots 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13, 16, 17, 19 and 20. These observations are ongoing, and this dataset will be appended annually.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cooling outweighs warming across phenological transitions in the Northern Hemisphere

Vegetation phenology, i.e., seasonal biological events such as leaf-out and leaf-fall, regulates local climate through biophysical processes like evapotranspiration (ET) and albedo. However, the net surface temperature impact of these processes—whether ET cooling or albedo-induced warming predominates—and how the dominance changes across phenological transitions and regions remains poorly understood. Here, we investigated the effects of vegetation foliage on daytime land surface temperature (LST) following six phenological transitions, spanning from the start of season to end of season, in deciduous and mixed forests across the mid- to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere during 2013–2021 using multiple satellite products and ground observations. We quantified vegetation effect as the difference between observed LST and LST estimates from the Annual Temperature Cycle (ATC) model, representing a no-foliage scenario. We found that vegetation-induced cooling consistently outweighs warming following all phenological transitions except for the end of the season. Cooling intensity increased with vegetation greenness, ranging from 1.0 ± 0.5 °C (mean ± 0.15 SD) in 59% of forests after the start of the season (SOS) to 6.1 ± 0.8 °C in 89% of forests following the onset of maturity, before declining toward the end of the season. Over half of the regions experiencing cooling showed intensification of surface cooling with climate warming, suggesting an amplified vegetation-mediated cooling under future climate change. The findings provide a more precise understanding of the role of vegetation in modulating climate at the intraseasonal scale, highlighting the importance of integrating phenological impacts into climate adaptation strategies and Earth system modeling.

albedo↗

SPRUCE Ground Observations of Phenology in Experimental Plots, 2022

This data set consists of one comma separated (*.csv) file containing phenological transition dates, as derived from direct observations of vegetative and reproductive phenology recorded by a human observer, from the SPRUCE experiment during 2022 (2022-03-28 to 2021-11-17), the seventh full year of whole-ecosystem warming (Hanson et al. 2017). Both spring and autumn phenological events are included. Since April 2016, human observers have been directly tracking the phenology of both woody and herbaceous species on a weekly schedule within the SPRUCE experimental chambers, these data are reported in annual ground observations data sets (see Related Data Sets). The observed date reported here is the first survey date in 2022 on which an event/phenophase was definitively observed. This data set also contains a companion file in HTML (*.html) containing figures showing the relationship between the day of year and temperature treatment for different phenological phases by species for 2022.

SPRUCE experiment, plant phenological phases, Spru↗

An ecologically-constrained deep learning model for tropical leaf phenology monitoring using PlanetScope satellites

In tropical forests, leaf phenology signals leaf-on/off status and exhibits considerable variability across scales from a single tree-crown to the entire forest ecosystem. Such phenology signals importantly regulate large-scale biogeochemical cycles and regional climate. PlanetScope CubeSats data with a 3-m resolution and near-daily global coverage provide an unprecedented opportunity to monitor both fine- and ecosystem-scale phenology variability along large environmental gradients. However, a scalable method that accurately characterizes leaf phenology from PlanetScope with biophysically meaningful metrics remains lacking. Here we developed an index-guided, ecologically constrained autoencoder (IG-ECAE) method to automatically derive a deciduousness metric (i.e. percentage of tree canopies with leaf-off status within an image pixel) from PlanetScope. The IG-ECAE first estimated the reflectance spectra of leafy/leafless canopies based on their spectral indices characteristics, then used the derived reflectance spectra to guide an autoencoder deep learning method with additional ecological constraints to refine the reflectance spectra, and finally used linear spectral unmixing to estimate the relative abundance of leafless canopies (or deciduousness) per PlanetScope image pixel. We tested the IG-ECAE method at 16 tropical forest sites spanning multiple continents and a large precipitation gradient (1470-2819 mm year -1 ). Among these sites, we evaluated the PlanetScope-derived deciduousness with corresponding measures derived from WorldView-2 (n=9 sites) and local phenocams (n=9 sites). Our results show that PlanetScope-derived deciduousness agrees: 1) with that derived from WorldView-2 at the patch level (90m×90m) with r 2 =0.89 across all sites; and 2) with that derived from phenocams to quantify ecosystem-scale seasonality with r 2 ranging from 0.62-0.96. These results demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of IG-ECAE in characterizing the wide variability in deciduousness across scales from pixels to forest ecosystems, and from a single date to the full annual cycle, indicating the potential for using high-resolution satellites to track the large-scale phenological patterns and response of tropical forests to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

HP-LSP: A reference of land surface phenology from fused Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 with PhenoCam data

Abstract Land surface phenology (LSP) products are currently of large uncertainties due to cloud contaminations and other impacts in temporal satellite observations and they have been poorly validated because of the lack of spatially comparable ground measurements. This study provided a reference dataset of gap-free time series and phenological dates by fusing the Harmonized Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 (HLS) observations with near-surface PhenoCam time series for 78 regions of 10 × 10 km 2 across ecosystems in North America during 2019 and 2020. The HLS-PhenoCam LSP (HP-LSP) reference dataset at 30 m pixels is composed of: (1) 3-day synthetic gap-free EVI2 (two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index) time series that are physically meaningful to monitor the vegetation development across heterogeneous levels, train models (e.g., machine learning) for land surface mapping, and extract phenometrics from various methods; and (2) four key phenological dates (accuracy ≤5 days) that are spatially continuous and scalable, which are applicable to validate various satellite-based phenology products (e.g., global MODIS/VIIRS LSP), develop phenological models, and analyze climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Exploring the role of biotic factors in regulating the spatial variability in land surface phenology across four temperate forest sites

Here, land surface phenology (LSP), the characterization of plant phenology with satellite data, is essential for understanding the effects of climate change on ecosystem functions. Considerable LSP variation is observed within local landscapes, and the role of biotic factors in regulating such variation remains underexplored. In this study, we selected four National Ecological Observatory Network terrestrial sites with minor topographic relief to investigate how biotic factors regulate intra-site LSP variability. We utilized plant functional type (PFT) maps, functional traits, and LSP data to assess the explanatory power of biotic factors for the start and end of season (SOS and EOS) variability. Our results indicate that PFTs alone explain only 0.8–23.4% of intra-site SOS and EOS variation, whereas including functional traits significantly improves explanatory power, with cross-validation correlations ranging from 0.50 to 0.85. While functional traits exhibited diverse effects on SOS and EOS across different sites, traits related to competitive ability and productivity were important for explaining both SOS and EOS variation at these sites. These findings reveal that plants exhibit diverse phenological responses to comparable environmental conditions, and functional traits significantly contribute to intra-site LSP variability, highlighting the importance of intrinsic biotic properties in regulating plant phenology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗