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DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Day-Ahead PV Estimation Using Autoencoder-LSTM and Persistence Model

Inherent variability in photovoltaic (PV) and associated impacts on power systems is a challenging problem for both the PV owners and the grid operators. Existing statistical and machine learning algorithms typically work well for weather conditions similar to historical data. Furthermore, uncertain weather conditions pose a great challenge to the estimation accuracy of the estimation models. With the enhanced integration of intelligent electronic devices and the realization of associated automation in the power grid, renewable energy data is becoming more accessible, which can be utilized by deep learning models and improve the PV power generation estimation accuracy. In this paper, a hybrid deep learning model driven by external weather data is proposed to do day-ahead PV output forecasting at 15-minute-interval. The proposed model is motivated by the recent advancement of Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) networks and AutoEncoder (AE), which estimates uncertainties in sequence while making the prediction for complex weather conditions. Meanwhile, the persistence model (PM) is used to predict continuous sunny weather conditions. The forecasting result is validated with data from multiple locations

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Consensus-Based Approach for Active Power Control and Reserve Estimation in Distributed PV Systems

With the increased adoption of distributed energy resources (DER), they are expected to contribute to power system reliability services and enhance power system stability. This paper presents a distributed consensus control approach for the real-time active power reserve estimation and power management in distributed PV (photovoltaic) systems. The proposed method estimates the cumulative active power reserve from numerous PV generators using only the sparse communication network for a DER aggregator to provide active power regulation services. The real-time active power reserve estimation using the proposed approach can be used by DER aggregators to manage curtailment in distributed PV systems to maintain stipulated reserves and further to provide power system frequency regulation. Using the proposed approach, the DER aggregator only requires measurements at the feeder substation and it does not require information from individual DER units, thereby improving system resiliency. The proposed distributed consensus control method is validated on IEEE 123 testbed using PSCAD simulations.

active power reserve↗

DOE OSTI2022

Consensus-Based Approach for Active Power Control and Reserve Estimation in Distributed PV Systems: Preprint

active power reserve↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Self-Organizing Nano Grid (SONG) for Energy Access Clusters

In this paper, a bottom-up dc Self-Organizing Nano Grid (SONG) for rural electrification at ultra-low-cost through a flexible and scalable topology is presented. The proposed nano grid requires no communication and uses dc-bus signaling to convey excess energy in the system through the bus voltage, allowing independent agents to conduct energy transactions based on their needs in a decentralized manner. Moreover, this article proposes a concept that uses a novel multi-source, multi-segment droop control strategy with demand coordination, allowing for dynamic self-balancing of the system under fluctuating operating conditions. The unique use of a surplus photovoltaic (PV) power droop mode precisely estimates energy availability to minimize load chattering that helps in stabilizing the dc-bus. In addition, this architecture uses standard dc/dc converters for a low-cost, modular, Plug and Play ( PnP ) solution with highly automated operation, enabling local assembly, operation, and maintenance by non-technical personnel. The proposed SONG concept was validated in simulation and with a 700W, laboratory-scale, custom made nano grid system. The simulation and experimental test cases show the feasibility of the SONG system by demonstrating the proposed multi-source, multi-segment droop control strategy without load chattering under varying operating conditions.

dc-dc converter↗

DOE OSTI2020

In-Situ Measurement of Power Loss for Crystalline Silicon Modules Undergoing Thermal Cycling and Mechanical Loading Stress Testing

An in-situ method is proposed for monitoring and estimating the power degradation of mc-Si photovoltaic (PV) modules undergoing thermo-mechanical degradation tests that primarily manifest through cell cracking, such as mechanical load tests, thermal cycling and humidity freeze tests. The method is based on in-situ measurement of the module’s dark current-voltage (I-V) characteristic curve during the stress test, as well as initial and final module flash testing on a Sun simulator. The method uses superposition of the dark I-V curve with final flash test module short-circuit current to account for shunt and junction recombination losses, as well as series resistance estimation from the in-situ measured dark I-Vs and final flash test measurements. The method is developed based on mc-Si standard modules undergoing several stages of thermo-mechanical stress testing and degradation, for which we investigate the impact of the degradation on the modules light I-V curve parameters, and equivalent solar cell model parameters. Experimental validation of the method on the modules tested shows good agreement between the in-situ estimated power degradation and the flash test measured power loss of the modules, of up to 4.31 % error (RMSE), as the modules experience primarily junction defect recombination and increased series resistance losses. However, the application of the method will be limited for modules experiencing extensive photo-current degradation or delamination, which are not well reflected in the dark I-V characteristic of the PV module.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Distributed Energy Resource (DER) Reliability for Backup Electric Power Systems

Hospitals, emergency services, military bases, ports, airports, industries, commercial facilities, and others rely on backup power systems to provide electricity for their critical loads during grid outages. The purpose of this report it to provide accurate reliability information on commonly deployed distributed energy resources (DERs) to improve quantitative estimates for the reliability of these backup power systems during a grid outage. A backup power system consists of DERs, an electric distribution system with its associated switches and other devices, and mechanisms to control and manage the flow of electricity. Too often, facilities and campuses fail to properly quantify the reliability of their backup power systems. DERs are assumed to be 100% reliable, with the only concern being the availability of fuel. Such assumptions can lead to gross errors in the backup system's reliability estimates, particularly for long-duration outages. This report provides a set of estimates for reliability of emergency diesel generators (EDGs), natural gas prime generators and combined heat and power (CHP) prime movers, solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and Li-ion battery energy storage systems (BESS). The estimates are derived from empirical data when available and supplemented by modeling results when needed. These reliability estimates are for the DERs ability to provide power during a grid outage, ranging from an hour to 2 weeks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Estimating and parameterizing mismatch power loss in bifacial photovoltaic systems

Nonuniform irradiance on the rear side of bifacial photovoltaic (PV) systems can cause additional mismatch loss, which may not be appropriately captured in PV energy production estimates and software. We evaluated several scenarios including horizontal single-axis tracking (HSAT) over natural ground-cover and rooftop-mounted systems over high albedo reflective roofs. We found mismatch losses of up to 1.5% annual loss for very close-mounted (0.15 m) rooftop systems, but losses for HSAT systems and high-ground-clearance rooftop systems were lower (<0.5%). A simplified empirical relationship was found that links the spatial variation of irradiance (specifically, the mean absolute difference of irradiance) to the resulting mismatch loss factor, with an R 2 better than .99. Furthermore, this approximate relationship was experimentally validated on mismatched PV modules, and it provides a basis for rapidly estimating bifacial mismatch loss factors for use in hourly PV performance simulations such as PVSyst or SAM. Additional parameters investigated include (a) climate dependence and module orientation, which were not found to have a strong impact on bifacial mismatch losses and (b) PV module fill factor and bifaciality ratio, which did have a strong linear impact on mismatch losses.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Method for Spatiotemporal Solar Power Profile Estimation for a Proposed U.S.–Caribbean–South America Super Grid under Hurricanes

Solar photovoltaic (PV) generation technology stands out as a scalable and cost-effective solution to enable the transition toward decarbonization. However, PV solar output, beyond the daily solar irradiance variability and unavailability during nights, is very sensitive to weather events like hurricanes. Hurricanes nucleate massive amounts of clouds around their centers, shading hundreds of kilometers in their path, reducing PV power output. This research proposes a spatiotemporal method, implemented in MATLAB R2023b coding, to estimate the shading effect of hurricanes over a wide distribution of PV solar plants connected to a high-voltage power infrastructure called the U.S.–Caribbean–South America super grid. The complete interconnection of the U.S., the Caribbean, and South America results in the lowest power valley levels, i.e., an overall percentual reduction in PV power output caused by hurricane shading. The simulations assess the impact of hurricanes in 10 synthetic trajectories spanning from Texas to Florida. The Caribbean would also experience lower power valleys with expanded interconnectivity schemes. The U.S.–Caribbean–South America super grid reduces Caribbean variability from 37.8% to 8.9% in the case study. The proposed spatiotemporal method for PV power profile estimation is a valuable tool for future solar power generation expansion, transmission planning, and system design considering the impact of hurricanes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using spatio-temporal graph neural networks to estimate fleet-wide photovoltaic performance degradation patterns

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) system performance is crucial for determining its feasibility as a power generation technology and financial asset. PV-based energy solutions offer a viable alternative to traditional energy resources due to their superior Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). A significant challenge in assessing the LCOE of PV systems lies in understanding the Performance Loss Rate (PLR) for large fleets of PV systems. Estimating the PLR of PV systems becomes increasingly important in the rapidly growing PV industry. Precise PLR estimation benefits PV users by providing real-time monitoring of PV module performance, while explainable PLR estimation assists PV manufacturers in studying and enhancing the performance of their products. However, traditional PLR estimation methods based on statistical models have notable drawbacks. Firstly, they require user knowledge and decision-making. Secondly, they fail to leverage spatial coherence for fleet-level analysis. Additionally, these methods inherently assume the linearity of degradation, which is not representative of real world degradation. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel graph deep learning-based decomposition method called the Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network for fleet-level PLR estimation (PV-stGNN-PLR). PV-stGNN-PLR decomposes the power timeseries data into aging and fluctuation components, utilizing the aging component to estimate PLR. PV-stGNN-PLR exploits spatial and temporal coherence to derive PLR estimation for all systems in a fleet and imposes flatness and smoothness regularization in loss function to ensure the successful disentanglement between aging and fluctuation. We have evaluated PV-stGNN-PLR on three simulated PV datasets consisting of 100 inverters from 5 sites. Experimental results show that PV-stGNN-PLR obtains a reduction of 33.9% and 35.1% on average in Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) and Euclidean Distance (ED) in PLR degradation pattern estimation compared to the state-of-the-art PLR estimation methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1989

Estimated performance and future potential of solar dynamic and photovoltaic power systems for selected LEO and HEO missions

Solar Photo Voltaic (PV) and thermal dynamic power systems for application to selected Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and High Eccentric Orbit (Energy) (HEO) missions are characterized in the regime 7 to 35 kWe. Input parameters to the characterization are varied corresponding to anticipated introduction of improved or new technologies. Comparative assessment is made between the two power system types utilizing newly emerging technologies in cells and arrays, energy storage, optical surfaces, heat engines, thermal energy storage, and thermal management. The assessment is made to common ground rules and assumptions. The four missions (space station, sun-synchronous, Van Allen belt and GEO) are representative of the anticipated range of multi-kWe earth orbit missions. System characterizations include all required subsystems, including power conditioning, cabling, structure, to deliver electrical power to the user. Performance is estimated on the basis of three different levels of component technology: (1) state-of-art, (2) near-term, and (3) advanced technologies. These range from planar array silicon/IPV nickel hydrogen batteries and Brayton systems at 1000 K to thin film GaAs with high energy density secondary batteries or regenerative fuel cells and 1300 K Stirling systems with ultra-lightweight concentrators and radiators. The system estimates include design margin for performance degradations from the known environmental mechanisms (micrometeoroids and space debris, atomic oxygen, electron and proton flux) which are modeled and applied depending on the mission. The results give expected performance, mass and drag of multi-kWe earth orbiting solar power systems and show how overall system figures of merit will improve as new component technologies are incorporated.

Bents, David J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Performance characteristics of a combination solar photovoltaic heat engine energy converter

A combination solar photovoltaic heat engine converter is proposed. Such a system is suitable for either terrestrial or space power applications. The combination system has a higher efficiency than either the photovoltaic array or the heat engine alone can attain. Advantages in concentrator and radiator area and receiver mass of the photovoltaic heat engine system over a heat-engine-only system are estimated. A mass and area comparison between the proposed space station organic Rankine power system and a combination PV-heat engine system is made. The critical problem for the proposed converter is the necessity for high temperature photovoltaic array operation. Estimates of the required photovoltaic temperature are presented.

Chubb, Donald L.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Combination solar photovoltaic heat engine energy converter

Chubb, Donald L.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Performance characteristics of a combination solar photovoltaic heat engine energy converter

Chubb, Donald L.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Frequency Analysis of Solar PV Power to Enable Optimal Building Load Control

In this paper, we present a flexibility estimation mechanism for buildings’ thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) to enable the distribution level consumption of the majority of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation by local building TCLs. The local consumption of PV generation provides several advantages to the grid operation as well as the consumers, such as reducing the stress on the distribution network, minimizing voltage fluctuations and two-way power flows in the distribution network, and reducing the required battery storage capacity for PV integration. This would result in increasing the solar PV generation penetration levels. The aims of this study are twofold. First, spectral (frequency) analyses of solar PV power generation together with the power consumption of multiple building TCLs (such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, water heaters, and refrigerators) are performed. These analyses define the bandwidth over which these TCLs can operate and also describe the PV generation frequency bandwidth. Such spectral analyses, in frequency domain, can help identify the flexible components of PV generation that can be consumed by the various TCLs through optimal building load utilization. Second, a quadratic optimization problem based on model predictive control is formulated to allow consuming most of the low and medium frequency content of the PV power locally by building TCLs, while maintaining occupants’ comfort and TCLs’ physical constraints. The solution to the proposed optimization problem is achieved using optimal control strategies. Numerical results show that most of the low and medium frequency content of the PV generation can be consumed locally by building TCLs. The remaining high-frequency content of the PV generation can then be stored/offset using energy storage systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Metal Oxide Varistor (MOV) Lifetime Estimation with Impulse-Based Testing in PV Inverter Systems

Surges caused by lightning strikes could damage electrical components in photovoltaic (PV) systems. Metal oxide varistors (MOVs) are commonly used to protect PV systems from lightning strikes. This paper proposes a holistic impulse-based MOV lifetime estimation framework. The impacts of peak current and fault duration induced by lightning events are considered in the MOV lifetime estimation framework. Moreover, the impact of different parameter combinations on MOV lifetime estimation is analyzed. The effectiveness of the proposed work is validated in a PV inverter test system developed in MATLAB/Simulink.

lifetime estimation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Metal Oxide Varistor (MOV) Lifetime Estimation with Impulse-Based Testing in PV Inverter Systems: Preprint

Surges caused by lightning strikes could damage electrical components in photovoltaic (PV) systems. Metal oxide varistors (MOVs) are commonly used to protect PV systems from lightning strikes. In this paper, a holistic impulse-based MOV lifetime estimation framework is proposed. The impacts of peak current and fault duration induced by lightning events are considered in the MOV lifetime estimation framework. Moreover, the impact of different parameter combinations on MOV lifetime estimation is analyzed. The effectiveness of the proposed work is validated in a PV inverter test system developed in MATLAB/Simulink.

lifetime estimation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demonstration of an All-Refractory Corrosion-Resistant Molten Salt Pumping and Storage Infrastructure Up to 950 degrees C

Concentrating solar power (CSP) with thermal energy storage (TES) has an estimated cost similar to solar photovoltaics (PV) with lithium-ion batteries (LIB), but CSP + TES has the potential for significantly reduced cost by operating above 700 degrees C. However, this requires a TES medium and containment infrastructure which are chemically compatible and do not degrade above 700 degrees C. MgCl2-KCl-NaCl (MKN) salt is a promising medium, but when MKN salt has small amounts of water and oxygen dissolved in it, it excessively corrodes conventional commercial alloys. Here, we consider refractory materials including graphite, carbon-carbon composite (C/C), and molybdenum because they maintain high mechanical strength at elevated temperatures and are expected to resist corrosion by MKN salt. While selection of refractory materials is often constrained by the need to remain chemically stable in air, this work uses an enclosure filled with inert gas to allow the use of materials like graphite and molybdenum. Notably, graphite components can seal against liquids unlike many brittle refractory materials. We demonstrate a centrifugal pump and mechanical seals made of refractory materials in a laboratory-scale circulation loop, which successfully operated continuously for more than 49 h at temperatures ranging from 750 degrees C to 950 degrees C with no mechanical failures or chemical degradation of the refractory materials. To the best of our knowledge, this is the highest temperature molten salt circulation loop that has been successfully developed, and this refractory infrastructure allows for operation at even much higher temperatures (<1600 degrees C) if a storage medium with a lower vapor pressure is used. The principles of this architecture are relevant to other applications with high temperature flowing metals and salts including Generation IV nuclear fission reactors for power production and molten salt electrolysis reactors for metallurgical processing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Performance Evaluation of an Advanced Distributed Energy Resource Management Algorithm

This paper presents performance evaluation of a new distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) algorithm via an advanced hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform. The HIL platform provides realistic testing in a laboratory environment, including the accurate modeling of sub-transmission and distribution networks, the DERMS software controller, and 84 power hardware solar photovoltaic (PV) inverters, standard communication protocols, and a capacitor bank controller. The DERMS algorithm is also called, Grid-Optimization of Solar (GO-Solar) platform which includes predictive state estimation (PSE) and online multiple objective optimization (OMOO) to dispatch the legacy devices and distributed energy resources (e.g., PV). The voltage regulation performance is evaluated under three scenarios, volt-var smart inverter (baseline), and DERMS control for 100% and 30% of PV. The results show that controlling 30% of PV systems with the GO-Solar platform may provide the best balance of control performance and implementation cost.

distributed energy resource management system (DER↗