SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “physics-based simulations”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Scientific Discovery with Physics-Informed System Identification (Abbreviated Report)

My fellowship research focused on making physics-based simulations faster and more useful through machine learning. Many problems in science and engineering are governed by partial differential equations, but high-fidelity simulations are often too expensive to run repeatedly. I worked on improving Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI), a reduced-order modeling framework that compresses large simulation data sets into a smaller representation and then learns how that representation evolves over time. The motivation was to develop reduced models that remain accurate for more challenging systems, especially when predictions must remain reliable over long time intervals or when the underlying dynamics are more complicated than standard methods can easily handle. I also contributed to related work on Quandary, a high-performance software effort for simulation and control of open quantum systems, before focusing primarily on Latent Space Dynamics Identification methods. The main outcomes of the fellowship were two new algorithms (both of which were published), Rollout-LaSDI and Higher-Order LaSDI, together with supporting work on multi-stage Latent Space Dynamics Identification. Rollout-LaSDI improved long-term prediction by training the model to stay accurate over extended time horizons, and Higher-Order LaSDI broadened the method so it could model systems with higher-order time dynamics. My contributions to multistage Latent Space Dynamics Identification also helped show that its later training stages could be simplified without losing effectiveness, and that this behavior held across different model architectures and training strategies. Taken together, these advances improved the accuracy, flexibility, and practical value of reduced-order modeling tools for computational science.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Regional Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations for Southern California With EQSIM: Insights From the 2008 Chino Hills, 2024 Highland Park, and 2021 Carson Earthquakes

This study presents physics-based, 3D simulations using the EQSIM framework for several earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The primary objective was to assess the ability of deterministic physics-based ground motion simulations to reproduce the observed motions from historical events. The selected events included the mathematical equation M w 5.4 2008 Chino Hills, the mathematical equation M w 4.4 2024 Highland Park, and the mathematical equation M w 4.3 2021 Carson events. The simulated motions were evaluated by comparing the recorded and simulated seismograms, as well as the Fourier amplitude spectra, across multiple seismic stations. The SCEC 3D velocity model, CVM-S4.26.M01, was used to represent the regional geology, and ground motion simulations were carried out with a resolution of up to 5 Hz. The results indicate that the simulated motions captured the recorded motions up to approximately 4 Hz. While careful iterations regarding source parameters and corner frequencies were required, and, for the case of the Highland Park event, some of the near-source stations had relatively low accuracy, the present study established a positive step toward the utilization of physics-based simulations in practical applications. The computational efficiencies exhibited by EQSIM, especially on GPU clusters, further supported this assertion, as wall-clock times of simulations involving more than 10 billion grid points were as low as mathematical equation minutes. This permits ensemble simulations for a considered scenario event so that modeling uncertainties (e.g., source and geology) can be bracketed.

EQSIM↗

DOE OSTI2026

AutoBEM: A scalable framework for nationwide building energy simulation and retrofit evaluation in the United States

This paper presents AutoBEM, an integrated, automated framework for nationwide building energy modeling and retrofit evaluation in the United States. Unlike prior UBEM platforms that either rely primarily on representative stock sampling or operate at city scale, AutoBEM automates the generation of building-resolved, physics-based EnergyPlus/OpenStudio simulation models at national scale using GIS-derived geometry, prototype-based assumptions, and standardized scalable workflows. Leveraging the Model America dataset and high-performance computing, AutoBEM generates and simulates energy models for 122.9 million buildings, representing 97.8% of the U.S. building stock. These models are being made publicly and freely available as the Model America v1.0 (MAv1) dataset. AutoBEM supports detailed, building-level assessments of energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and post-processed anthropogenic heat emissions (AHE), and evaluates 151 energy conservation measures (ECMs) using localized utility pricing and building characteristics. In addition, AutoBEM incorporates both typical and future climate conditions through integration with Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) and Future TMY (fTMY) weather data derived from IPCC scenarios. In a case study of Phoenix, Arizona, AutoBEM identified several high-efficiency HVAC upgrades and selected envelope measures with short modeled payback periods (1.5 years) for certain building types and standards. Simulations under future climate scenarios (SSP5–RCP8.5) project an 11.3% increase in electricity use and a 32% reduction in natural gas demand by 2100, underscoring the need for climate-adaptive retrofit planning. By enabling reproducible, bottom-up, and location-specific analysis at scale, AutoBEM provides a step toward a national digital twin of the built environment and supports data-driven screening and planning for decarbonization, resilience, and energy equity.

Li, Hang [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000306001920)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Computational methods in solution-based plastics purification

Plastic waste can be recycled into resins with near-virgin properties by solution-based purification processes that selectively dissolve polymers, remove contaminants, or detach printing residues. Here, in this review, we examine computational methods for predicting the behavior governing solution-based plastic purification, motivated by the vast polymer–solvent–contaminant compositional space. We discuss thermodynamic and machine learning methods for predicting polymer–solvent and polymer–contaminant interaction and review physics-based molecular dynamics simulations that resolve molecular-scale phenomena within polymer matrices inaccessible to screening methods. We highlight how these methods have informed experimental design for dissolution-based recycling and solvent-based contaminant removal. Finally, we discuss the prospective role of agentic AI in integrating these computational tools with real-time sorting data to adapt purification conditions to the compositional variability of real post-consumer feedstocks. This review charts a path toward computationally guided solution-based purification workflows that can respond to the complexity inherent in plastic waste streams.

Altamimi, Ali [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (Un↗

DOE OSTI2026

Geothermal district energy systems coupled with seasonal underground thermal energy storage: a U.S. techno-economic screening by climate and geology

In the United States, cooling-dominated commercial building loads can cause geothermal heat pump-based district energy systems to accumulate a long-term subsurface thermal imbalance, motivating the incorporation of seasonal underground thermal energy storage. We developed a transferable workflow to evaluate geothermal district systems that pair ground heat exchangers with seasonal underground thermal energy storage. Using standardized hourly loads for seven commercial buildings and a uniform cost framework, we simulated ten U.S. cities with a physics-based ground heat exchanger model, subsurface storage simulations, and economic assessment to isolate the roles of climate and hydrogeology. In cooling-dominated cities, underground thermal energy storage supplied the majority of annual cooling, cutting electricity use and summer peaks substantially while achieving levelized costs comparable to or below conventional chiller-boiler plants. In cooler climates, the storage share shrunk, required borefield size and costs rose, and levelized cost of energy increased nearly linearly with declining underground thermal energy storage fraction, indicating storage fraction as the primary economic lever. Sensitivity analysis showed capital risk dominated by borefield drilling and surface heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning and piping, with underground thermal energy storage costs secondary. This workflow provides a transparent foundation for site-specific design and screening of next-generation geothermal district energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrated Process-Structure-Property Simulations for Additive Manufacturing Using the Open-Source Materialite Package

The microstructure and properties of additively manufactured (AM) metals are strongly dependent on process conditions. Therefore, process-structure-property (PSP) simulations are a useful tool for exploring process parameter space, studying process variations, and quantifying uncertainty in material properties. However, integrating process-structure and structure-property simulations often involves connecting multiple software packages. Each package may use unique data structures and require substantial domain knowledge. This presentation demonstrates PSP simulation capabilities of Materialite, an open-source package developed at NASA Langley Research Center. Materialite simplifies model linkages by using a common data structure and model interface, enabling straightforward simulation across a PSP model chain. Physics-based models, including kinetic Monte Carlo and crystal plasticity, are implemented within the package. The model interface is also intended to simplify implementation of new models and enable integration with external simulation tools. Example use cases include uncertainty quantification with PSP models and GPU-accelerated powder bed fusion AM process models.

additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Concentrating Solar Thermal Modeling Using System Advisor Model (SAM)

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technologies play a critical role in enabling dispatchable power and high-temperature industrial heat applications. Accurate and flexible modeling tools are essential for evaluating system performance, guiding technology research and development, and informing investment decisions. The National Laboratory of the Rockies's System Advisor Model (SAM) is a widely used techno-economic simulation platform for CST systems, providing detailed performance and financial modeling capabilities for multiple CST system configurations. SAM integrates physics-based performance models with financial analysis to simulate the behavior of complex energy systems under realistic operating conditions. For CST technologies (including tower, parabolic trough, and linear Fresnel), SAM enables hourly simulations using site-specific weather data that ensure feasible operating conditions and convergence of mass and energy between core system components (i.e., solar field, receiver, thermal energy storage, and power cycle). These capabilities allow researchers and developers to evaluate annual energy production, capacity factors, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and system dispatch strategies. A key advantage of SAM lies in its flexibility for parametric analysis and large-scale computational studies. Users can vary system design parameters such as heliostat field layout, receiver dimensions, thermal energy storage capacity, power block sizing, and installation cost assumptions to investigate their impact on system performance and financial metrics. When combined with automated scripting through LK, SDKTool, or Python interfaces, SAM enables high-throughput simulation workflows that support sensitivity analysis, technology benchmarking, and optimization studies. These approaches are particularly valuable for next-generation CST concepts, where design spaces are large and system interactions are complex. Another important capability of SAM is its support for dispatch optimization and thermal energy storage modeling, which are central to the value proposition of CST technologies. The ability to simulate integrated storage and flexible power generation allows researchers to explore strategies that maximize grid value, improve capacity utilization, and enhance integration with variable resources such as photovoltaic and wind generation. This poster will present an overview of SAM's thermal system modeling capabilities including concentrating solar. Additionally, we will highlight new feature developments including: 1) implementing Google's OR-Tools optimization platform for faster and more robust dispatch optimization, 2) developing a new power load following controller for modeling behind-the-meter applications, 3) enabling direct modeling of CSP-PV hybrid systems with the inclusion of battery storage, and 4) developing a multi-receiver falling particle Gen3 system model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Plume Impingement Software Module for Real-Time Proximity Operations

Successfully executing proximity operations in space, such as docking or in-orbit servicing, requires sophisticated spacecraft design that accounts for induced environments. As a chaser vehicle’s attitude control thrusters fire, they create rarefied plumes that can impact the target vehicle, with the potential to overload components, exceed thermal limits, and spin the target vehicle out of control. High-fidelity simulations of the thruster plume impingement environment require the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method, but DSMC is too computationally expensive to simulate proximity operations that involve thousands of thruster firings. For this analysis to be tractable, engineering models of the plume flowfield and impingement events are used to simulate these trajectories [1]. Currently, on-orbit plume impingement environments are modeled through an inefficient open-loop analysis cycle where the vehicle’s flight controller and plume impingement teams iterate on the trajectories until they pass the target vehicle’s plume requirements. As complex on-orbit missions evolve and become more frequent, lengthy design cycles will become operational bottlenecks. To address this gap, this work develops an advanced plume impingement module capable of operating at real-time scale that can be integrated with existing mission planning tools and onboard flight systems. The plume module leverages state-of-the-art plume simulation techniques [2] to deliver fast, physics-based impingement predictions in a software architecture that can be tailored to diverse proximity operations scenarios. A prototype of this plume impingement module is built to demonstrate the feasibility of real-time performance. This prototype completes plume impingement calculations in microseconds per target geometry mesh point. The software serves as a foundational capability for plume-aware trajectory design, operational risk assessment, and future autonomous decision-making systems.

Plume Impingement↗

DOE OSTI2026

APOLLO: a facility-scale differentiable virtual accelerator for Fermilab

As the design complexity of modern accelerators grows, there is more interest in using advanced simulations that have fast execution time or yield additional insights like gradients. The FAST/IOTA facility has been working on implementing and experimentally validating an end-to-end digital twin that is both fast and gradient-aware, allowing for rapid prototyping of new software and experiments with minimal beam time costs. Our framework integrates physics and ML codes for linac and ring simulation through a set of generic interfaces between surrogate and physics-based sections. To reproduce device inputs and outputs, system state is exposed as a deterministic discrete event simulator. Because Fermilab is undergoing control system transition, both EPICS and ACNET frontends are supported. Recently, we have begun transitioning to a new community lattice standard, PALS, as well as developing standardized infrastructure for data ingest and normalization to prepare for model calibration during FAST proton injector commissioning. We discuss implementation details as well as challenges, and future plans to extend modelling to main complex proton accelerators like PIPII and Booster.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Two-Level Sketching Alternating Anderson Acceleration for Complex Physics Applications

We present a novel two-level sketching extension of the Alternating Anderson–Picard (AAP) method for accelerating fixed-point iterations in challenging single- and multiphysics simulations governed by discretized PDEs. Our approach combines a static, physics-based projection that reduces the least-squares (LS) problem to the most informative field (e.g., via Schur-complement insight) with a dynamic, algebraic sketching stage driven by a backward stability analysis under Lipschitz continuity. We introduce inexpensive estimators for stability thresholds and cache-aware randomized selection strategies to balance computational cost against memory access overhead. The resulting algorithm solves reduced LS systems in place, minimizes memory footprints, and seamlessly alternates between low-cost Picard updates and Anderson mixing. Implemented in Julia, our two-level sketching AAP achieves up to 50% time-to-solution reductions compared to standard Anderson acceleration—without degrading convergence rates—on benchmark problems including Stokes, 𝑝-Laplacian, bidomain, and Navier–Stokes formulations at varying problem sizes. These results demonstrate the method’s robustness, scalability, and potential for integration into high-performance scientific computing frameworks. Our implementation is available open source in the AAP.jl library.

Barnafi, Nicolas [University of Chile, Santiago]↗

DOE OSTI2026

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER) With Envelope Improvements and Advanced Air Sealing

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson, et al. 2022). This document focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP) (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER) With Envelope Improvements. This measure combines a two-stage GHP with envelope improvements as a single package. As this package is a combination of two other measures, this document focused on documenting the results associated with this combination of technologies, with individual measure documents for two-stage GHPs and envelope improvements providing the information on the details of these measures. When the two technologies are combined, envelope improvements can modestly reduce energy consumption by a further 10%-15%, but also reduce the required size of the ground heat exchanger and heat pump by approximately 33% on average across all sites. The cost of installing envelope improvements in these homes is likely to be more than paid for by the reduction in equipment and drilling costs in these buildings for the majority of the stock.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Single-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (3.8 COP, 18.6 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Single-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP).?Single-stage GHPs are able to reduce energy consumption by 31% for the entire stock. Additional results provided below detail how savings changes for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuel and in different climate zones, as well as the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (4.4 COP, 30.9 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock (TM) is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP). This document provides the relevant new modeling information for variable-speed systems not previously covered in either the single-stage or two-stage documents. Variable-speed GHPs represent the most efficient option available for this technology: They provide the most savings, with up to 46% for the applicable portion of the housing stock, compared to 31% for less efficient single-stage GHPs. Additional results shown here detail how the savings change for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuels and in different climate zones, and they show the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This document focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER). This document builds on details established in the single-stage document (Maguire et al. 2025) to detail differences in the approach to modeling this higher efficiency, but more commonly deployed, type of geothermal heat pump. Specific EnergyPlus objects and product specific curves used are highlighted along with showing the results of this measure compared to the baseline and single-speed geothermal heat pumps. Two-speed geothermal heat pumps are able to save even more energy and on utility bills than single-speed products, albeit at the expense of a higher first cost.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

PPPL Report on Reduced Modeling of Fusion Alpha Transport in ARC Burning Plasmas

We are reporting on the modeling of fusion alpha particle transport in the planned ARC fusion device being designed by the CFS (Commonwealth Fusion Systems: https://cfs.energy). The ARC tokamak is designed to operate in a burning-plasma regime characterized by a substantial population of fusion-born alpha particles. Alfvén eigenmode (AE) stability is assessed both analytically and numerically, incorporating alpha-particle drive, ion Landau, and radiative damping from thermal species and collisional damping from trapped electrons. Regions of unstable and near-threshold AE activity are mapped across ARC’s operational parameter space. Linear stability analysis with NOVA indicates multiple, often marginally unstable AEs, extending to toroidal mode numbers up to n= 30. The present report focuses on the ARC flat-top operating point prior to the sawtooth event. Alpha-particle transport on timescales exceeding the neoclassical slowing-down time is assessed using the NUBEAM module [1][2] of the TRANSP code [3], employing transport coefficients derived from the RBQ quasilinear modeling (cf. Appendix B). These global simulations identify favorable and unfavorable operating regimes with respect to alpha confinement, pressure redistribution, and overall alpha-heating efficiency. We also evaluate additional transport mechanisms—including neoclassical tearing mode (TM)–induced stochasticity, sawtooth-driven redistribution, and toroidal-field ripple using the kick model (cf. Appendix C) which makes use of the guiding-center code ORBIT, see Section 5. The kick model is integrated into TRANSP to enable self-consistent predictions of alpha-driven current formation and sustainment within the ARC scenario. Sensitivity scans are performed over the mode frequency, rational-surface alignment, island width, mode amplitude, and proximity of the limiter to the plasma. Our study provides an initial, physics-based guidance for machine design, operational planning, and equilibrium control, ensuring adequate alpha confinement and robust self-heating performance in ARC. Our simulations mostly targeted worst case scenarios, e.g. for TMs and sawteeth. Overall, we expect benign effects for the ARC scenario investigated in this work on fusion alpha confinement and losses in the presence of AEs, tearing modes and sawteeth. This report addresses three thrusts identified at the outset. The first thrust focuses on analytic estimates of the parametric dependencies of EP relaxation based on local AE stability simulations (Section 3). The second thrust involves global evaluations of AE stability using the NOVA, RBQ, and NUBEAM codes (Section 4). Finally, we investigate alpha-particle transport driven by low-frequency instabilities associated with sawteeth and tearing modes (Section 5).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗