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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Fish Out of Basin: Increased Stress Physiology and Reduced Performance of Salmon River Hatchery Chinook Salmon

Abstract Variation in rearing conditions across hatcheries and basins can affect the performance of hatchery salmonids in the wild. In 2008, the Shoshone-Bannock Tribes began planning an out-of-basin hatchery facility on the eastern Snake River Plain for rearing threatened Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha for release in tributaries of the upper Salmon River, Idaho, USA. To help determine the viability of the planned out-of-basin hatchery, we reared 100,000 juvenile Chinook Salmon from the same genetic stock at one in-basin (Sawtooth Fish Hatchery on the Salmon River) and one out-of-basin (Springfield Fish Hatchery on the Snake River Plain) site in Idaho that are characterized by significant differences in water hardness and temperature regime. In October 2018 and April 2019, we tested whether fish condition, stress physiology, acute mortality, and downstream survival differed between the two groups at the parr and smolt life stages upon release in the Yankee Fork Salmon River, which is characterized by low water hardness. For both release groups, parr experienced low acute mortality during the 48 h after release; however, the out-of-basin group had a downstream survival rate through an unimpounded portion of the migration corridor that was an order of magnitude lower than that for the in-basin group. During the smolt release, the out-of-basin group showed signs of extreme physiological stress, acute mortality rates of 40–80%, and low survival in the unimpounded portion of the migratory corridor. The in-basin group recovered from the stress of transport and release, had no acute mortality, and survived through the unimpounded migratory corridor at a rate comparable to that of previous years’ releases. Based on the results of this comparative study, comanagers are evaluating alternatives to the proposed out-of-basin hatchery program. This case study highlights the effects of differences between rearing and release conditions on salmon physiology and survival as well as the value of conducting preliminary evaluations prior to implementing large-scale hatchery supplementation programs.

Ebel, Jonathan D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Acute stress reduces population-level metabolic and proteomic variation

Abstract Background Variation in omics data due to intrinsic biological stochasticity is often viewed as a challenging and undesirable feature of complex systems analyses. In fact, numerous statistical methods are utilized to minimize the variation among biological replicates. Results We demonstrate that the common statistics relative standard deviation (RSD) and coefficient of variation (CV), which are often used for quality control or part of a larger pipeline in omics analyses, can also be used as a metric of a physiological stress response. Using an approach we term Replicate Variation Analysis (RVA), we demonstrate that acute physiological stress leads to feature-wide canalization of CV profiles of metabolomes and proteomes across biological replicates. Canalization is the repression of variation between replicates, which increases phenotypic similarity. Multiple in-house mass spectrometry omics datasets in addition to publicly available data were analyzed to assess changes in CV profiles in plants, animals, and microorganisms. In addition, proteomics data sets were evaluated utilizing RVA to identify functionality of reduced CV proteins. Conclusions RVA provides a foundation for understanding omics level shifts that occur in response to cellular stress. This approach to data analysis helps characterize stress response and recovery, and could be deployed to detect populations under stress, monitor health status, and conduct environmental monitoring.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identification of Metal Stresses in Arabidopsis thaliana Using Hyperspectral Reflectance Imaging

Industrial accidents, such as the Fukushima and Chernobyl disasters, release harmful chemicals into the environment, covering large geographical areas. Natural flora may serve as biological sensors for detecting metal contamination, such as cesium. Spectral detection of plant stresses typically employs a few select wavelengths and often cannot distinguish between different stress phenotypes. In this study, we apply hyperspectral reflectance imaging in the visible and near-infrared along with multivariate curve resolution (MCR) analysis to identify unique spectral signatures of three stresses in Arabidopsis thaliana : salt, copper, and cesium. While all stress conditions result in common stress physiology, hyperspectral reflectance imaging and MCR analysis produced unique spectral signatures that enabled classification of each stress. As the level of potassium was previously shown to affect cesium stress in plants, the response of A. thaliana to cesium stress under variable levels of potassium was also investigated. Increased levels of potassium reduced the spectral response of A. thaliana to cesium and prevented changes to chloroplast cellular organization. While metal stress mechanisms may vary under different environmental conditions, this study demonstrates that hyperspectral reflectance imaging with MCR analysis can distinguish metal stress phenotypes, providing the potential to detect metal contamination across large geographical areas.

multivariate curve resolution↗
DOE OSTI2021

A physiological signal derived from sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence quantifies crop physiological response to environmental stresses in the U.S. Corn Belt

Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) measurements have shown unique potential for quantifying plant physiological stress. However, recent investigations found canopy structure and radiation largely control SIF, and physiological relevance of SIF remains yet to be fully understood. This study aims to evaluate whether the SIF-derived physiological signal improves quantification of crop responses to environmental stresses, by analyzing data at three different spatial scales within the U.S. Corn Belt, i.e. experiment plot, field, and regional scales, where ground-based portable, stationary and space-borne hyperspectral sensing systems are used, respectively. We found that, when controlling for variations in incoming radiation and canopy structure, crop SIF signals can be decomposed into non-physiological (i.e. canopy structure and radiation, 60% ~ 82%) and physiological information (i.e. physiological SIF yield, Φ F , 17% ~ 31%), which confirms the contribution of physiological variation to SIF. We further evaluated whether Φ F indicated plant responses under high-temperature and high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) stresses. The plot-scale data showed that Φ F responded to the proxy for physiological stress (partial correlation coefficient, r p = 0.40, p < 0.001) while non-physiological signals of SIF did not respond ( p > 0.1). The field-scale Φ F data showed water deficit stress from the comparison between irrigated and rainfed fields, and Φ F was positively correlated with canopy-scale stomatal conductance, a reliable indicator of plant physiological condition (correlation coefficient r = 0.60 and 0.56 for an irrigated and rainfed sites, respectively). The regional-scale data showed Φ F was more strongly correlated spatially with air temperature and VPD ( r = 0.23 and 0.39) than SIF ( r = 0.11 and 0.34) for the U.S. Corn Belt. The lines of evidence suggested that Φ F reflects crop physiological responses to environmental stresses with greater sensitivity to stress factors than SIF, and the stress quantification capability of Φ F is spatially scalable. Utilizing Φ F for physiological investigations will contribute to improve our understanding of vegetation responses to high-temperature and high-VPD stresses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chronically underestimated: a reassessment of US heat waves using the extended heat index

Abstract The heat index, or apparent temperature, was never defined for extreme heat and humidity, leading to the widespread adoption of a polynomial extrapolation designed by the United States National Weather Service. Recently, however, the heat index has been extended to all combinations of temperature and humidity, presenting an opportunity to reassess past heat waves. Here, three-hourly temperature and humidity are used to evaluate the extended heat index over the contiguous United States during the years 1984–2020. It is found that the 99.9th percentile of the daily maximum heat index is highest over the Midwest. Identifying and ranking heat waves by the spatially integrated exceedance of that percentile, the Midwest once again stands out as home to the most extreme heat waves, including the top-ranked July 2011 and July 1995 heat waves. The extended heat index can also be used to evaluate the physiological stress induced by heat and humidity. It is found that the most extreme Midwest heat waves tax the cardiovascular system with a skin blood flow that is elevated severalfold, approaching the physiological limit. These effects are not captured by the National Weather Service’s polynomial extrapolation, which also underestimates the heat index by as much as 10 ∘ C (20 ∘ F) during severe heat waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing variation in faecal glucocorticoid concentrations in gray whales exposed to anthropogenic stressors

Understanding how individual animals respond to stressors behaviourally and physiologically is a critical step towards quantifying long-term population consequences and informing management efforts. Glucocorticoid (GC) metabolite accumulation in various matrices provides an integrated measure of adrenal activation in baleen whales and could thus be used to investigate physiological changes following exposure to stressors. In this study, we measured GC concentrations in faecal samples of Pacific Coast Feeding Group (PCFG) gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) collected over seven consecutive years to assess the association between GC content and metrics of exposure to sound levels and vessel traffic at different temporal scales, while controlling for contextual variables such as sex, reproductive status, age, body condition, year, time of year and location. We develop a Bayesian Generalized Additive Modelling approach that accommodates the many complexities of these data, including non-linear variation in hormone concentrations, missing covariate values, repeated samples, sampling variability and some hormone concentrations below the limit of detection. Estimated relationships showed large variability, but emerging patterns indicate a strong context-dependency of physiological variation, depending on sex, body condition and proximity to a port. Our results highlight the need to control for baseline hormone variation related to context, which otherwise can obscure the functional relationship between faecal GCs and stressor exposure. Therefore, extensive data collection to determine sources of baseline variation in well-studied populations, such as PCFG gray whales, could shed light on cetacean stress physiology and be used to extend applicability to less-well-studied taxa. GC analyses may offer greatest utility when employed as part of a suite of markers that, in aggregate, provide a multivariate measure of physiological status, better informing estimates of individuals’ health and ultimately the consequences of anthropogenic stressors on populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of High-Temperature Stress on Plant Physiological Traits and Mycorrhizal Symbiosis in Maize Plants

Increasing high temperature (HT) has a deleterious effect on plant growth. Earlier works reported the protective role of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) under stress conditions, particularly influencing the physiological parameters. However, the protective role of AMF under high-temperature stress examining physiological parameters with characteristic phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA) of soil microbial communities including AMF has not been studied. This work aims to study how high-temperature stress affects photosynthetic and below-ground traits in maize plants with and without AMF. Photosynthetic parameters like quantum yield of photosystem (PS) II, PSI, electron transport, and fractions of open reaction centers decreased in HT exposed plants, but recovered in AMF + HT plants. AMF + HT plants had significantly higher AM-signature 16:1ω5cis neutral lipid fatty acid (NLFA), spore density in soil, and root colonization with lower lipid peroxidation than non-mycorrhizal HT plants. As a result, enriched plants had more active living biomass, which improved photosynthetic efficiency when exposed to heat. This study provides an understanding of how AM-mediated plants can tolerate high temperatures while maintaining the stability of their photosynthetic apparatus. This is the first study to combine above- and below-ground traits, which could lead to a new understanding of plant and rhizosphere stress.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Short-term exposure to elevated suspended sediment increases oxygen uptake of gilled larval Eastern Hellbender ( Cryptobranchus alleganiensis ) salamanders

Freshwater ecosystems are increasingly impacted by anthropogenic elevated levels of suspended sediment that may negatively affect aquatic organisms, including salamanders. Although increasing fine sediment in streams has been suggested as a reason for population declines, to date no study has empirically assessed the effect of suspended sediment on gilled larval Eastern Hellbenders (Cryptobranchus alleganiensis (Sonnini de Manoncourt and Latreille, 1801)), a critical life-history stage and a species of conservation concern. We used custom respirometers to elucidate effects of suspended sediments on larval Eastern Hellbender oxygen uptake in trials conducted in situ in Georgia (USA) streams. Mean oxygen uptake increased and was significantly higher in trials when larval salamanders were exposed to suspended sediment (mean = 5.06 mg O 2 /L for 800 mg/L of sediment treatment vs. 2.25 mg O 2 /L for 0.00 mg/L of sediment control). This may indicate elevated physiological stress in response to short-term exposure to suspended sediments. Qualitatively, individuals in both groups exhibited rocking behavior in response to low oxygen (hypoxia), albeit at different frequencies (sediment exposure = 7.6 rocks/min and control = 2.1 rocks/min). Larval salamanders may be able to temporarily compensate for low oxygen through increased rocking behavior when high suspended sediment loads are present, with future respirometry research needed.

hypoxia↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rewiring the unfolded protein response for plant growth recovery after stress

The unfolded protein response (UPR) is a highly coordinated signaling network that alleviates endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress, a condition induced by diverse environmental challenges in plants. Over the past two decades, substantial progress has been made in elucidating the genetic and molecular mechanisms of ER stress sensing and signal transduction in plants, largely through studies in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana . These advances have established the UPR as a central regulator of proteostasis and underscored its broader relevance to plant growth and development and crop productivity under stress conditions. Despite this progress, critical knowledge gaps remain, particularly concerning the downstream biological processes required for growth recovery once ER stress has subsided and how these processes are coordinated by UPR regulators. Recent systems-level and integrative studies have begun to reveal critical roles of UPR signaling in pathways governing growth re-establishment and homeostasis of nutrient allocation and energy metabolism. In this review, we highlight recent findings on the functional roles of the plant UPR in recovery from ER stress, with a focus on mechanisms mediated by UPR regulators and downstream biological pathways that enable the transition from stress mitigation to growth restoration. Although this research area is still emerging, accumulating evidence supports a model in which the UPR functions as a dynamic regulatory network that actively coordinates post-stress physiological recovery to support plant fitness.

ER stress↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Change Risks to Freshwater Subsistence Fisheries in Arctic Alaska: Insights and Uncertainty from Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus

Arctic freshwater ecosystems and fish populations are largely shaped by seasonal and long-term watershed hydrology. In this paper, we hypothesize how changing air temperature and precipitation will alter freeze and thaw processes, hydrology, and instream habitat to assess potential indirect effects, such as the change to the foraging and behavioral ecology, on Arctic fishes, using Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus as an indicator species. Climate change is expected to continue to alter hydrologic pathways, flow regimes, and, therefore, habitat suitability, connectivity, and availability for fishes. Warming and lengthening of the growing season will likely increase fish growth rates; however, the exceedance of threshold stream temperatures will likely increase physiological stress and alter life histories. We expect these changes to have mixed effects on Arctic subsistence fishes and fisheries. Management and conservation approaches focused on preserving the processes that create heterogeneity in aquatic habitats, genes, and communities will help maintain the resilience of Broad Whitefish and other important subsistence fisheries. Long-term effects are uncertain, so filling scientific knowledge gaps, such as identifying important habitats or increasing knowledge of abiotic variables in priority watersheds, is key to understanding and potentially mitigating likely impacts to Arctic fishes in a rapidly changing landscape.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Edaphic controls on genome size and GC content of bacteria in soil microbial communities

Nutrient limitation has been shown to reduce bacterial genome size and influence nucleotide composition; however, much of this work has been conducted in marine systems and the factors which shape soil bacterial genomic traits remain largely unknown. Here, for this work, we determined average genome size, GC content, codon usage, and amino acid content from 398 soil metagenomes across a broad geographic range and used machine-learning to determine the environmental parameters that most strongly explain the distribution of these traits. We found that genomic trait averages were most related to pH, which we suggest is primarily due to the correlation of pH with several environmental parameters, particularly soil carbon content. Low pH soils had higher carbon to nitrogen ratios (C:N) and tended to have communities with lower GC content and larger genomes, potentially a response to increased physiological stress and a requirement for metabolic diversity. Conversely, communities in high pH and low soil C:N had smaller genomes and higher GC content—indicating potential resource driven selection against AT base pairs, which have a higher C:N than GC base pairs. Similarly, we found that nutrient conservation also applied to amino acid stoichiometry, where bacteria in soils with low C:N ratios tended to code for amino acids with lower C:N. Together, these relationships point towards fundamental mechanisms that underpin genome size, and nucleotide and amino acid selection in soil bacteria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

From photosynthetic electron flow to gene regulation: redox signal transduction in cyanobacteria

In cyanobacteria, the free-living ancestors of chloroplasts, photosynthesis simultaneously sustains growth and generates reactive oxygen species (ROS) that damage proteins, lipids, and DNA when light capture outpaces carbon fixation. Maintaining redox balance, therefore, requires cells to read photosynthetic electron flow as a signal that continuously tunes gene expression and protein activity. This review traces how these redox signals are transduced to transcription machinery through three routes: membrane-localized sensors, cytoplasmic redox sensors downstream of photosystem I, and ROS generated when electron sinks are saturated. Membrane-bound histidine kinases (two-component systems) relay the redox state of the plastoquinone pool to control photosystem remodeling, pigment biosynthesis, and circadian timing. Cytoplasmic one-component regulators, by contrast, sense redox directly through thiol-disulfide switches, glutathionylation, iron-sulfur clusters, and metal-catalyzed oxidation to control photosystem-cofactor, electron-carrier, and transition-metal homeostasis. Because many of these regulators persist in algal and plant chloroplasts, cyanobacteria illuminate principles of redox control across photosynthetic eukaryotes. Post-transcriptional and translational control further shapes redox-dependent gene expression programs through transcript stability, ribosome assembly, and translation initiation, extending redox regulation beyond transcription to every step of protein synthesis and even activity modulation. Finally, we connect redox regulation to photosynthetic physiology, stress resilience, and the rational engineering of cyanobacteria for sustainable bioproduction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

2024 IUFRO Tree Biotechnology Conference (Aug 4-8, 2024)

The 2024 IUFRO Tree Biotechnology Conference is the biennial meeting on genomics, molecular biology, and biotechnology of forest trees, associated with the IUFRO Working Party 2.04.06. This year's meeting was held in Annapolis, MD, USA from August 4th to 8th and was hosted by Yiping Qi (University of Maryland), Edward Eisenstein (University of Maryland), Gary Coleman (University of Maryland), and Heather Coleman (Syracuse University). The conference covered seven topics over the course of five days: 1) Biological and ecological insights from OMICS, 2) Advancing technologies for targeted trait manipulation and acceptability to diverse tree species, 3) Genes, development, and physiology, 4) Translating genomics and biotechnology to practice, 5) Trees in a changing world, 6) Genetic and phenotypic diversity for breeding and genomic selection, and 7) Biotechnology for biomaterials and bioeconomy. In addition to the sessions, there were two plenary sessions, provided by John Ralph (University of Wisconsin) and Tanja Pyrhäjärvi (University of Helsinki). The meeting celebrated the second awardees of the newly created IUFRO WG 2.04.06 Award: Excellence in Forest Molecular Biology and Genomics, which was presented to Chung-Jui (C.J.) Tsai (University of Georgia). Greg Goralogia (Oregon State University) was the recipient of the associated Early Career Award. The scientific presentations at the conference highlighted cutting-edge advancements in many facets of forest biotechnology research, including applications of genomic selection in forest genetics and breeding, the use of genetic editing, tree physiology, stress response, molecular breeding, wood development, "omics" technologies, and the social and economic impacts of genetically modified (GM) trees. Scientific take homes from the meeting include the power of NMR to dissect the composition of lignin, the genomic diversity of forest trees that has enormous potential for tree improvement and the integration of systems biology with climate and geographical data. The conference attracted a mix of students (25), postdoctoral fellows (32), and scientists from academia (66) and industry (18). In all, the conference was attended by 141 registered participants, representing 20 countries that participated in 23 invited lectures (including 6 'early-career' keynotes), 27 voluntary talks and 61 poster presentations. Support for the conference was drawn from a wide variety of Academia, Industry, and Government sources, and included financial support from several tree improvement companies. Overall, the conference was a great success, providing an exceptional mix of science and social activities in a relaxed and collegial atmosphere. More information about the meeting can be found at treebiotech.org. The next meeting will be held in Stellenbosch, South Africa, in 2026, hosted jointly by Zander Myburg, Dave Drew (University of Stellenbosch,) and Sanushka Naidoo (University of Pretoria, FABI).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Growth-associated polyhydroxybutyrate accumulation in Azospira suillum PS during aerobic and perchlorate respiration

Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs) are widespread microbial storage polymers increasingly recognized for roles beyond carbon and energy storage, including redox homeostasis and stress physiology. While PHA accumulation is classically associated with stationary-phase metabolism under severe nutrient imbalance, comparatively little is known about growth-associated PHA synthesis in facultative anaerobes with unusual respiratory strategies. Here, we investigated polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) metabolism in Azospira suillum PS, a genetically tractable perchlorate-reducing bacterium capable of both aerobic and anaerobic respiration. Using physiological growth experiments, targeted gene deletions, PHB extractions, and intracellular redox measurements, we examined PHB accumulation under varying respiratory and nutrient conditions. We demonstrate that PHB accumulates during exponential growth under moderately nitrogen-limited conditions, both aerobically and during perchlorate respiration, representing a rare example of growth-associated PHB synthesis under anaerobic conditions. Genomic analysis revealed four phaC homologs, one of which could not be deleted under the experimental conditions tested and co-localized with phaB and phaR. Redox profiling further revealed a strong positive correlation between PHB accumulation and intracellular NADPH/NADP+ ratios. Together, these findings expand the physiological contexts in which PHB synthesis is known to occur and highlight perchlorate-respiring bacteria as underexplored model systems for studying growth-integrated carbon and redox storage strategies.

Meier, David A O↗
DOE OSTI2025

A multi-omic characterization of the physiological responses to salt stress in Scenedesmus obliquus UTEX393

Scenedesmus obliquus UTEX393 is a promising microalgal candidate for sustainable biomanufacturing but its limited halotolerance hinders large-scale cultivation in saline environments. To investigate the molecular basis of salt stress responses, we conducted a comprehensive multi-omic analysis integrating genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, lipidomics, metabolomics, and DNA affinity purification sequencing (DAP-seq). An improved nuclear genome assembly and annotation yielded 19,017 gene models and a 97% BUSCO completeness score, enabling construction of a genome-scale metabolic model. Comparing 15 ppt salinity stress to 5 ppt control, growth and productivity were significantly reduced, accompanied by widespread transcriptomic and proteomic changes. Transcriptomic analysis revealed downregulation of photosynthetic machinery and energy conservation genes, and upregulation of stress-responsive elements such as expansins, flavodoxins, and osmoprotectants. Lipidomic profiling showed accumulation of triacylglycerols (TAGs) and degradation of galactosyl lipids, consistent with a shift toward lipid biosynthesis to mitigate redox imbalance. Depletion of key polar metabolites and branched-chain amino acids suggested a rerouting of central carbon metabolism under stress. DAP-seq identified key transcription factors, including LHY1 and SPL12, that target central metabolic enzymes involved in redox balancing, such as glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH) and malate dehydrogenase (MDH). These findings establish a regulatory-metabolic framework linking redox stress to lipid accumulation and reveal potential engineering targets to enhance salt tolerance. Overall, the multi-omic analysis supports the “overflow” hypothesis, where impaired photosynthesis results in excess reducing equivalents being diverted into TAG synthesis and highlights transcriptional regulators as candidates for improving algal robustness in brackish environments.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Future increases in Amazonia water stress from CO 2 physiology and deforestation

Several different drivers are contributing to climate change within the Amazon basin, including forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols, plant physiology responses to rising CO 2 , and deforestation. Attribution among these drivers has not been quantified for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate simulations. Here we identify the contribution of CO 2 physiology and deforestation to future hydroclimate change in the Amazon basin by combining information from four experiments and eight different Earth system models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Together, forcing from CO 2 physiology and deforestation account for about 44% of the projected annual precipitation decline, 48% of surface relative humidity decline and 11% of warming over the Amazon basin by 2100 for SSP3-7.0. Further, other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 SSP simulations have similar contributions from the two drivers. Insight from our attribution analysis can aid in identifying research priorities aimed at reducing uncertainty in future projections of water availability, carbon dynamics and wildfire risk.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ponderosa pine hydraulic stress predicts more extreme wildfire behavior under future conditions in Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

Background Live fuel moisture contributes to wildfire spread and reflects plant stress and physiological traits. The anticipated change in live fuel moisture under future conditions is likely non-linear, owing to physiological plant thresholds in water hydraulics. We constructed a mechanistic model of live fuel moisture’s response to water stress to understand the impact of future climate on live fuel moisture. We first gathered data on plant physiology and live fuel moisture for Pinus ponderosa at Bandelier National Monument, NM, USA, and modeled their relationship. We then parameterized a mechanistic plant hydrodynamics model (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate changes in plant stress and a statistical model to simulate the resulting impact on live fuel moisture. We then simulated FATES-HYDRO under future climate anomalies (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5: 2080–2100) to understand the change in plant stress and estimate its impact on live fuel moisture. Results We found that the number of days below crucial thresholds of live fuel moisture (100% and 79%) increased from contemporary levels (< 100%: 72 days, < 79%: 1.4 days) under SSP2-4.5 (< 100%: 185 days, < 79%: 10.2 day) and increased exponentially under SSP5-8.5 (< 100%: 215 days, < 79%: 65 days). We found that gross primary productivity decreased under both future climate scenarios (contemporary: 336 g C m −2 , SSP2-4.5: 203 g C m −2 , SSP5-8.5: 243 g C m −2 ); however, spring productivity increased under SSP5-8.5, potentially altering fuel loading. We additionally see a potentially lethal loss of conductivity in hydraulic P. ponderosa under SSP5-8.5. Conclusions The overall increase in plant water stress (as represented by loss of hydraulic conductivity and leaf water potential) and lower live fuel moisture appear to be driven by reduced precipitation during late summer monsoons typical of the region, extending the fire season later in the year. We predict increasing variability in the P. ponderosa wildfire regime under both climate projections driven by changing productivity, rising mortality, and an overall decrease in live fuel moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗