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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Adaptive Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully Bayesian formulations remain rare—especially with implementations in R. Motivated by the success of adaptive Bayesian machine learning models such as BART, BASS and BPPR, we develop a new fully Bayesian adaptive PCE method with an efficient and accessible R implementation: khaos. Our approach includes a novel proposal distribution that enables data-driven interaction selection and supports a modified g-prior tailored to PCE structure. Through simulation studies and real-world UQ applications, we demonstrate that the Bayesian adaptive PCE provides competitive performance for surrogate modeling, global sensitivity analysis and ordinal regression tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model calibration of the liquid mercury spallation target using evolutionary neural networks and sparse polynomial expansions

The mercury constitutive model predicting the strain and stress in the target vessel plays a central role in improving the lifetime prediction and future target designs of the mercury targets at the Spallation Neutron Source. We leverage the experiment strain data collected over multiple years to improve the mercury constitutive model through a combination of large scale simulations of the target behavior and the use of machine learning tools for parameter estimation. We present two interdisciplinary approaches for surrogate-based model calibration of expensive simulations using evolutionary neural networks and sparse polynomial expansions. The newly calibrated simulations achieve 7% average improvement on the prediction accuracy and 8% reduction in mean absolute error compared to previously reported reference parameters, with some individual sensors experiencing up to 30% improvement. The calibrated simulations can aid in fatigue analysis to estimate the mercury target lifetime, which reduces abrupt failure and saves tremendous amount of costs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Permutationally Invariant Polynomial Expansions with Unrestricted Complexity

A general strategy is presented for constructing and validating permutationally invariant polynomial (PIP) expansions for chemical systems of any stoichiometry. Demonstrations are made for three categories of gas-phase dynamics and kinetics: collisional energy-transfer trajectories for predicting pressure-dependent kinetics, three-body collisions for describing transient van der Waals adducts relevant to atmospheric chemistry, and nonthermal reactivity via quasiclassical trajectories. In total, 30 systems are considered with up to 15 atoms and 39 degrees of freedom. Permutational invariance is enforced in PIP expansions with as many as 13 million terms and 13 permutationally distinct atom types by taking advantage of petascale computational resources. The quality of the PIP expansions is demonstrated through the systematic convergence of in-sample and out-of-sample errors with respect to both the number of training data and the order of the expansion, and these errors are shown to predict errors in the dynamics for both reactive and nonreactive applications. Here, the parallelized code distributed as part of this work enables the automation of PIP generation for complex systems with multiple channels and flexible user-defined symmetry constraints and for automatically removing unphysical unconnected terms from the basis set expansions, all of which are required for simulating complex reactive systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Legendre Polynomial Axial Expansion Method

This work presents a new formulation of the axial expansion transport method explicitly using Legendre polynomials for arbitrarily high-order expansions. This new formulation also features an alternative method of axial leakage calculation to allow for nonextruded flat source region meshes. This alternative axial leakage is introduced alongside a balance equation requirement to ensure that neutron balance is preserved in the coarse mesh for a given axial leakage formulation, which allows for effective coarse mesh finite difference acceleration. A matrix exponential table method is derived to allow for fast computations of arbitrarily high-order matrix exponentials for this work and precludes the need for further research into matrix exponential calculations for this method. Numerical results are presented that demonstrate the stability of the axial expansion method in systems with voidlike regions, showcase the speedup from matrix exponential tables, and investigate the axial convergence of the method in terms of both expansion order and mesh size.

Herring, Nicholas↗
DOE OSTI2021

An extended polynomial chaos expansion for PDF characterization and variation with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties

This paper presents an extended polynomial chaos formalism for epistemic uncertainties and a new framework for evaluating sensitivities and variations of output probability density functions (PDF) to uncertainty in probabilistic models of input variables. An ”extended” polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) approach is developed that accounts for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, modeled as random variables, thus allowing a unified treatment of both types of uncertainty. We explore in particular epistemic uncertainty associated with the choice of prior probabilistic models for input parameters. A PCE-based Kernel Density (KDE) construction provides a composite map from the PCE coefficients and germ to the PDF of quantities of interest (QoI). Here, the sensitivities of these PDF with respect to the input parameters are then evaluated. Input parameters of the probabilistic models are considered. By sampling over the epistemic random variable, a family of PDFs is generated and the failure probability is itself estimated as a random variable with its own PCE. Integrating epistemic uncertainties within the PCE framework results in a computationally efficient paradigm for propagation and sensitivity evaluation. Two typical illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Aleatory uncertainty↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Generalized Copula-Polynomial Chaos Expansion for Probabilistic Power Flow Considering Nonlinear Correlations of PV Injections

This paper develops a generalized Copula-polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) framework for power system probabilistic power flow that can handle both linear and nonlinear correlations of uncertain power injections, such as wind and PVs. A data-driven Copula statistical model is used to capture the correlations of uncertain power injections. This allows us to resort to the Rosenblatt transformation to transform correlated variables into independent ones while preserving the dependence structure. This paves the way of leveraging the PCE for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification of power flow results, i.e., achieving the probabilistic distributions of power flows. Simulations carried out on the IEEE 57-bus system show that the proposed framework can get much more accurate results than other alternatives with different linear and nonlinear power injection correlations.

copula↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projection pursuit adaptation on polynomial chaos expansions

Here, the present work addresses the issue of accurate stochastic approximations in high-dimensional parametric space using tools from uncertainty quantification (UQ). The basis adaptation method and its accelerated algorithm in polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) were recently proposed to construct low-dimensional approximations adapted to specific quantities of interest (QoI). The present paper addresses one difficulty with these adaptations, namely their reliance on quadrature point sampling, which limits the reusability of potentially expensive samples. Projection pursuit (PP) is a statistical tool to find the “interesting” projections in high-dimensional data and thus bypass the curse-of-dimensionality. In the present work, we combine the fundamental ideas of basis adaptation and projection pursuit regression (PPR) to propose a novel method to simultaneously learn the optimal low-dimensional spaces and PCE representation from given data. While this projection pursuit adaptation (PPA) can be entirely data-driven, the constructed approximation exhibits mean-square convergence to the solution of an underlying governing equation and thus captures the supports and probability distributions associated with the physics constraints. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a borehole problem and a structural dynamics problem, demonstrating the versatility of the method and its ability to discover low-dimensional manifolds with high accuracy with limited data. In addition, the method can learn surrogate models for different quantities of interest while reusing the same data set.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Direct Nonlinear Approximation for Security Region Boundary of Integrated Energy Systems: A Polynomial Chaos Expansion Solution

The strong interdependence of electricity, gas, and heating systems can facilitate fault propagation within integrated energy systems (IESs), posing significant challenges to secure operation. This paper proposes a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE)-based approximation method to accurately characterize the IES security region boundary (IES–SRB). By integrating the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions with PCE theory, the IES-SRB approximation problem is reformulated as a set of nonlinear equations concerning the approximation coefficients. Using the Galerkin projection method, these equations are further transformed into a system of projection equations that govern the polynomial approximation coefficients in the IES-SRB approximation. To reduce computational complexity while maintaining high approximation accuracy, a piecewise polynomial approximation method is proposed. Numerical studies on the E39-G20-H6 and E118-G96-H52 IES test systems demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately and effectively construct IES security regions.

Wu, Chenghao [Northeast Electric Power University]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Polynomial chaos expansions on principal geodesic Grassmannian submanifolds for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification

In this work we introduce a manifold learning-based surrogate modeling framework for uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional stochastic systems. Our first goal is to perform data mining on the available simulation data to identify a set of low-dimensional (latent) descriptors that efficiently parameterize the response of the high-dimensional computational model. To this end, we employ Principal Geodesic Analysis on the Grassmann manifold of the response to identify a set of disjoint principal geodesic submanifolds, of possibly different dimension, that captures the variation in the data. Since operations on the Grassmann require the data to be concentrated, we propose an adaptive algorithm based on Riemannian K-means and the minimization of the sample Fréchet variance on the Grassmann manifold to identify “local” principal geodesic submanifolds that represent different system behavior across the parameter space. Polynomial chaos expansion is then used to construct a mapping between the random input parameters and the projection of the response on these local principal geodesic submanifolds. Here, the method is demonstrated on four test cases, a toy-example that involves points on a hypersphere, a Lotka-Volterra dynamical system, a continuous-flow stirred-tank chemical reactor system, and a two-dimensional Rayleigh-Bénard convection problem.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven projection pursuit adaptation of polynomial chaos expansions for dependent high-dimensional parameters

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) and inference involving a large number of parameters are valuable tools for problems associated with heterogeneous and non-stationary behaviors. The difficulty with these problems is exacerbated when these parameters are statistically dependent requiring statistical characterization over joint measures. Probabilistic modeling methodologies stand as effective tools in the realms of UQ and inference. Among these, polynomial chaos expansions (PCE), when adapted to low-dimensional quantities of interest (QoI), provide effective yet accurate approximations for these QoI in terms of an adapted orthogonal basis. These adaptation techniques have been cast as projection pursuits in Gaussian Hilbert space in what has been referred to as a projection pursuit adaptation (PPA) by Xiaoshu Zeng and Roger Ghanem (2023). The PPA method efficiently identifies an optimal low-dimensional space for representing the QoI and simultaneously evaluates an optimal PCE within that space. The quality of this approximation clearly depends on the size of the training dataset, which is typically a function of the adapted reduced dimension. Here, the complexity of the problem is thus mediated by the complexity of the low-dimensional quantity of interest and not the complexity of the high-dimensional parameter space.

Data-driven↗
DOE OSTI2022

Manifold Learning-Based Polynomial Chaos Expansions for High-Dimensional Surrogate Models

In this work we introduce a manifold learning-based method for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in systems describing complex spatiotemporal processes. Our first objective is to identify the embedding of a set of high-dimensional data representing quantities of interest of the computational or analytical model. For this purpose, we employ Grassmannian diffusion maps, a two-step nonlinear dimension reduction technique which allows us to reduce the dimensionality of the data and identify meaningful geometric descriptions in a parsimonious and inexpensive manner. Polynomial chaos expansion is then used to construct a mapping between the stochastic input parameters and the diffusion coordinates of the reduced space. An adaptive clustering technique is proposed to identify an optimal number of clusters of points in the latent space. The similarity of points allows us to construct a number of geometric harmonic emulators which are finally utilized as a set of inexpensive pretrained models to perform an inverse map of realizations of latent features to the ambient space and thus perform accurate out-of-sample predictions. Thus, the proposed method acts as an encoder-decoder system which is able to automatically handle very high-dimensional data while simultaneously operating successfully in the small-data regime. The method is demonstrated on two benchmark problems and on a system of advection-diffusion-reaction equations which model a first-order chemical reaction between two species. In all test cases, the proposed method is able to achieve highly accurate approximations which ultimately lead to the significant acceleration of UQ tasks.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interpolation of compound semiconductor alloy parameters from those of their constituents

Several methods have been proposed for interpolation of the value of physical parameters of quaternary alloys from those of their constituent ternary and binary sub-alloys. These expressions agree when non-linear bowing terms are not required; they differ in how the bowing terms of the bounding ternaries should be utilized. Common interpolation expressions for quaternaries can be generalized into two groups: (1) those that use a linear interpolation of the nearest ternary parameter values and (2) those that interpolate over binary values with a bowing term derived from the bounding ternaries. The second group of methods is equivalent to a polynomial expansion over the alloy’s interpolation space. For compound semiconductor alloys, the geometry of the composition space is the direct sum of the group-III and group-V mixture sub-spaces. The mixture sub-spaces are best described using barycentric coordinates on a regular simplex. A general polynomial expansion of the value of an alloy parameter using barycentric coordinates for the group-III and group-V simplex spaces is described along with an algorithm to generate interpolation expressions for alloys with arbitrary numbers of elements, including quinary and senary alloys. It is shown that a polynomial expansion produces values in closer agreement with the direct gap of quaternaries lattice-matched to common substrates than do approaches using an interpolation of the ternary values, despite a prominent recommendation to the contrary. Finally, a quaternary correction term is described that improves the predicted direct bandgap energies of GaInAsSb for compositions near those lattice matched to InP, InAs, and GaSb.

Olesberg, Jonathon T. [Sandia National Laboratorie↗
DOE OSTI2023

Subspace recursive Fermi-operator expansion strategies for large-scale DFT eigenvalue problems on HPC architectures

Quantum mechanical calculations for material modeling using Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT) involve the solution of a nonlinear eigenvalue problem for N smallest eigenvector-eigenvalue pairs, with N proportional to the number of electrons in the material system. Here, these calculations are computationally demanding and have asymptotic cubic scaling complexity with the number of electrons. Large-scale matrix eigenvalue problems arising from the discretization of the Kohn–Sham DFT equations employing a systematically convergent basis traditionally rely on iterative orthogonal projection methods, which are shown to be computationally efficient and scalable on massively parallel computing architectures. However, as the size of the material system increases, these methods are known to incur dominant computational costs through the Rayleigh–Ritz projection step of the discretized Kohn–Sham Hamiltonian matrix and the subsequent subspace diagonalization of the projected matrix. This work explores the potential of polynomial expansion approaches based on recursive Fermi-operator expansion as an alternative to the subspace diagonalization of the projected Hamiltonian matrix to reduce the computational cost. Subsequently, we perform a detailed comparison of various recursive polynomial expansion approaches to the traditional approach of explicit diagonalization on both multi-node central processing unit and graphics processing unit architectures and assess their relative performance in terms of accuracy, computational efficiency, scaling behavior, and energy efficiency.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performant implementation of the atomic cluster expansion (PACE) and application to copper and silicon

The atomic cluster expansion is a general polynomial expansion of the atomic energy in multi-atom basis functions. Here we implement the atomic cluster expansion in the performant C++ code that is suitable for use in large-scale atomistic simulations. We briefly review the atomic cluster expansion and give detailed expressions for energies and forces as well as efficient algorithms for their evaluation. We demonstrate that the atomic cluster expansion as implemented in shifts a previously established Pareto front for machine learning interatomic potentials toward faster and more accurate calculations. Moreover, general purpose parameterizations are presented for copper and silicon and evaluated in detail. We show that the Cu and Si potentials significantly improve on the best available potentials for highly accurate large-scale atomistic simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performant implementation of the atomic cluster expansion

The atomic cluster expansion is a general polynomial expansion of the atomic energy in multi-atom basis functions. Here we implement the atomic cluster expansion in the performant C++ code PACE that is suitable for use in large scale atomistic simulations. We briefly review the atomic cluster expansion and give detailed expressions for energies and forces as well as efficient algorithms for their evaluation. We demonstrate that the atomic cluster expansion as implemented in PACE shifts a previously established Pareto front for machine learning interatomic potentials towards faster and more accurate calculations. Moreover, general purpose parameterizations are presented for copper and silicon and evaluated in detail. We show that the new Cu and Si potentials significantly improve on the best available potentials for highly accurate large-scale atomistic simulations.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗