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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Relative Importance of Vital Rates to Population Dynamics of Wood Ducks

The wood duck (Aix sponsa) is a common and important cavity-nesting duck in North America; however, we know very little about how changes in vital rates influence population growth rate (λ). We used estimates of fertility and survival of female wood ducks from our nest-box studies in South Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia, USA, to create a stage-based matrix population model. We conducted perturbation analyses and ranked elasticity values to examine the relative importance of 17 component vital rates to λ. Female survival is influenced by nest success, so we recognized this female heterogeneity in our analyses. Four vital rates showed the greatest importance to λ. Analytic elasticities were greatest for breeding season and nonbreeding season survival of females that nested successfully, followed by nest success and female recruitment to the breeding population. Differences in female quality were important to λ. Next, we used process variation of vital rates and conducted life-stage simulation analyses (LSA) followed by variance decomposition to determine the amount of variation in λ explained by each vital rate. Female recruitment to the breeding population explained 57.7% of the variation in λ followed by nest success (11.4%), and breeding and nonbreeding season survival of females that nested successfully (9.3% and 9.4%, respectively). Together these 4 vital rates explained 88% of the variation in λ. Mean asymptotic population growth rate (λ = 0.80 ± 0.08 [SD]) from LSA revealed a declining population. Recruitment of females hatched from nest boxes was insufficient to sustain the nest-box population. Furthermore, including yearling (SY) females that were produced outside of nest boxes (i.e., immigrants) increased recruitment rates 1.5 to 2 times more than when only SY females recruited from nest boxes were included. Future research that examines how emigration and immigration interact with survival and reproduction to influence local population dynamics of wood ducks will be important for identifying the value of nest-box programs to wood duck conservation and management.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Model reduction methods for population dynamics with fast-switching environments: Reduced master equations, stochastic differential equations, and applications

Here we study stochastic population dynamics coupled to fast external environments and combine expansions in the inverse switching rate of the environment and a Kramers–Moyal expansion in the inverse size of the population. This leads to a series of approximation schemes, capturing both intrinsic and environmental noise. These methods provide a means of efficient simulation and we show how they can be used to obtain analytical results for the fluctuations of population dynamics in switching environments. We place the approximations in relation to existing work on piecewise-deterministic and piecewise-diffusive Markov processes. Finally, we demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of these model-reduction methods in different research fields, including systems in biology and a model of crack propagation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Species-specific ribosomal RNA-FISH identifies interspecies cellular-material exchange, active-cell population dynamics and cellular localization of translation machinery in clostridial cultures and co-cultures

ABSTRACT The development of synthetic microbial consortia in recent years has revealed that complex interspecies interactions, notably the exchange of cytoplasmic material, exist even among organisms that originate from different ecological niches. Although morphogenetic characteristics, viable RNA and protein dyes, and fluorescent reporter proteins have played an essential role in exploring such interactions, we hypothesized that ribosomal RNA-fluorescence in situ hybridization (rRNA-FISH) could be adapted and applied to further investigate interactions in synthetic or semisynthetic consortia. Despite its maturity, several challenges exist in using rRNA-FISH as a tool to quantify individual species population dynamics and interspecies interactions using high-throughput instrumentation such as flow cytometry. In this work, we resolve such challenges and apply rRNA-FISH to double and triple co-cultures of Clostridium acetobutylicum, Clostridium ljungdahlii, and Clostridium kluyveri . In pursuing our goal to capture each organism’s population dynamics, we demonstrate dynamic rRNA, and thus ribosome, exchange between the three species leading to the formation of hybrid cells. We also characterize the localization patterns of the translation machinery in the three species, identifying distinct, dynamic localization patterns among them. Our data also support the use of rRNA-FISH to assess the culture’s health and expansion potential, and, here again, our data find surprising differences among the three species examined. Taken together, our study argues for rRNA-FISH as a valuable and accessible tool for quantitative exploration of interspecies interactions, especially in organisms which cannot be genetically engineered or in consortia where selective pressures to maintain recombinant species cannot be used. IMPORTANCE Though dyes and fluorescent reporter proteins have played an essential role in identifying microbial species in co-cultures, we hypothesized that ribosomal RNA-fluorescence in situ hybridization (rRNA-FISH) could be adapted and applied to quantitatively probe complex interactions between organisms in synthetic consortia. Despite its maturity, several challenges existed before rRNA-FISH could be used to study Clostridium co-cultures of interest. First, species-specific probes for Clostridium acetobutylicum and Clostridium ljungdahlii had not been developed. Second, “state-of-the-art” labeling protocols were tedious and often resulted in sample loss. Third, it was unclear if FISH was compatible with existing fluorescent reporter proteins. We resolved these key challenges and applied the technique to co-cultures of C. acetobutylicum , C. ljungdahlii , and Clostridium kluyveri . We demonstrate that rRNA-FISH is capable of identifying rRNA/ribosome exchange between the three organisms and characterized rRNA localization patterns in each. In combination with flow cytometry, rRNA-FISH can capture sub-population dynamics in co-cultures.

Hill, John D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation of the photodetachment spectra of the nitrate anion (NO 3 ₋ ) in the B ~ 2 E' energy range and non-adiabatic electronic population dynamics of NO 3

The photodetachment spectrum of the nitrate anion (NO 3 ₋ ) in the energy range of the NO 3 second excited state is simulated from first principles using quantum wave packet dynamics. The prediction at 10 K and 435 K relies on the use of an accurate full-dimensional fully coupled five state diabatic potential model utilizing an artificial neural network. The ability of this model to reproduce experimental spectra was demonstrated recently for the lower energy range. Analysis of the spectra indicates a weaker Jahn–Teller coupling compared to the first excited state. The detailed non-adiabatic dynamics is studied by computing the population dynamics. An ultra-fast non-statistical radiationless decay is found only among the Jahn–Teller components, which is followed by a slow statistical non-radiative decay among the different state manifolds. The latter is reproduced perfectly by a simple first order kinetics model. The dynamics in the second excited state is not affected by the presence of a conical intersection with the first excited state manifold.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Host population dynamics influence Leptospira spp. transmission patterns among Rattus norvegicus in Boston, Massachusetts, US

Leptospirosis (caused by pathogenic bacteria in the genus Leptospira ) is prevalent worldwide but more common in tropical and subtropical regions. Transmission can occur following direct exposure to infected urine from reservoir hosts, or a urine-contaminated environment, which then can serve as an infection source for additional rats and other mammals, including humans. The brown rat, Rattus norvegicus , is an important reservoir of Leptospira spp. in urban settings. We investigated the presence of Leptospira spp. among brown rats in Boston, Massachusetts and hypothesized that rat population dynamics in this urban setting influence the transportation, persistence, and diversity of Leptospira spp. We analyzed DNA from 328 rat kidney samples collected from 17 sites in Boston over a seven-year period (2016–2022); 59 rats representing 12 of 17 sites were positive for Leptospira spp. We used 21 neutral microsatellite loci to genotype 311 rats and utilized the resulting data to investigate genetic connectivity among sampling sites. We generated whole genome sequences for 28 Leptospira spp. isolates obtained from frozen and fresh tissue from some of the 59 positive rat kidneys. When isolates were not obtained, we attempted genomic DNA capture and enrichment, which yielded 14 additional Leptospira spp. genomes from rats. We also generated an enriched Leptospira spp. genome from a 2018 human case in Boston. We found evidence of high genetic structure among rat populations that is likely influenced by major roads and/or other dispersal barriers, resulting in distinct rat population groups within the city; at certain sites these groups persisted for multiple years. We identified multiple distinct phylogenetic clades of L. interrogans among rats that were tightly linked to distinct rat populations. This pattern suggests L. interrogans persists in local rat populations and its transportation is influenced by rat population dynamics. Finally, our genomic analyses of the Leptospira spp. detected in the 2018 human leptospirosis case in Boston suggests a link to rats as the source. These findings will be useful for guiding rat control and human leptospirosis mitigation efforts in this and other similar urban settings.

Stone, Nathan E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distinct critical behaviors from the same state in quantum spin and population dynamics perspectives

There is a deep connection between the ground states of transverse-field spin systems and the late-time distributions of evolving viral populations—within simple models, both are obtained from the principal eigenvector of the same matrix. However, that vector is the wave-function amplitude in the quantum spin model, whereas it is the probability itself in the population model. We show that this seemingly minor difference has significant consequences: Phase transitions that are discontinuous in the spin system become continuous when viewed through the population perspective, and transitions that are continuous become governed by new critical exponents. We introduce a more general class of models that encompasses both cases and that can be solved exactly in a mean-field limit. Numerical results are also presented for a number of one-dimensional chains with power-law interactions. We see that well-worn spin models of quantum statistical mechanics can contain unexpected new physics and insights when treated as population-dynamical models and beyond, motivating further studies.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Utilizing Geo-located Sensors and Social Media for Studying Population Dynamics and Land Classification

The ability to understand where, when, and why humans move across space and time has always been essential to research areas such as urban planning, transportation, population dynamics, and emergency preparedness and response. The increasing sources of activity data is generating novel opportunities to understand human dynamics that previously was not possible; Geo-located user generated content from mobile devices and sensors allow a level of spatial and temporal granularity that could possibly answer the reasons for human movement at a high-resolution. This work discusses a broad array of research agenda in human dynamics and land use by proposing an explicit model that assists in delineating and articulating the opportunities, challenges, and limitations of using new forms of unauthoritated data, such as social media in main-stream GIS research. We study mobile phone call volume and GPS locations to characterize human activity patterns and provide inference on land use. Later, we demonstrate the ability of geo-located social media posts to provide insight on population density estimates for special events and Points of Interest detection. The chapter underpins the need to utilize new forms of data collection mechanism as well as their use to augment our understanding of human dynamics research and future application of geographical information systems.

Thakur, Gautam Malviya↗
DOE OSTI2016

Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Disentangling top-down drivers of mortality underlying diel population dynamics of Prochlorococcus in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre

Photosynthesis fuels primary production at the base of marine food webs. Yet, in many surface ocean ecosystems, diel-driven primary production is tightly coupled to daily loss. This tight coupling raises the question: which top-down drivers predominate in maintaining persistently stable picocyanobacterial populations over longer time scales? Motivated by high-frequency surface water measurements taken in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG), we developed multitrophic models to investigate bottom-up and top-down mechanisms underlying the balanced control of Prochlorococcus populations. Here, we find that incorporating photosynthetic growth with viral- and predator-induced mortality is sufficient to recapitulate daily oscillations of Prochlorococcus abundances with baseline community abundances. In doing so, we infer that grazers in this environment function as the predominant top-down factor despite high standing viral particle densities. The model-data fits also reveal the ecological relevance of light-dependent viral traits and non-canonical factors to cellular loss. Finally, we leverage sensitivity analyses to demonstrate how variation in life history traits across distinct oceanic contexts, including variation in viral adsorption and grazer clearance rates, can transform the quantitative and even qualitative importance of top-down controls in shaping Prochlorococcus population dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Sendai virus intra-host population dynamics and host immunocompetence influence viral virulence during in vivo passage

In vivo serial passage of non-pathogenic viruses has been shown to lead to increased viral virulence, and although the precise mechanism(s) are not clear, it is known that both host and viral factors are associated with increased pathogenicity. Under- or overnutrition leads to a decreased or dysregulated immune response and can increase viral mutant spectrum diversity and virulence. The objective of this study was to identify the role of viral mutant spectra dynamics and host immunocompetence in the development of pathogenicity during in vivo passage. Because the nutritional status of the host has been shown to affect the development of viral virulence, the diet of animal model reflected two extremes of diets which exist in the global population, malnutrition and obesity. Sendai virus was serially passaged in groups of mice with differing nutritional status followed by transmission of the passaged virus to a second host species, guinea pigs. Viral population dynamics were characterized using deep sequence analysis and computational modeling. Histopathology, viral titer and cytokine assays were used to characterize viral virulence. Viral virulence increased with passage and the virulent phenotype persisted upon passage to a second host species. Additionally, nutritional status of mice during passage influenced the phenotype. Sequencing revealed the presence of several non-synonymous changes in the consensus sequence associated with passage, a majority of which occurred in the hemagglutinin-neuraminidase and polymerase genes, as well as the presence of persistent high frequency variants in the viral population. In particular, an N1124D change in the consensus sequences of the polymerase gene was detected by passage 10 in a majority of the animals. In vivo comparison of an 1124D plaque isolate to a clone with 1124N genotype indicated that 1124D was associated with increased virulence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

New insights into the nonadiabatic state population dynamics of model proton-coupled electron transfer reactions from the mixed quantum-classical Liouville approach

In a previous study [F. A. Shakib and G. Hanna, J. Chem. Phys. 141, 044122 (2014)], we investigated a model proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) reaction via the mixed quantum-classical Liouville (MQCL) approach and found that the trajectories spend the majority of their time on the mean of two coherently coupled adiabatic potential energy surfaces. This suggested a need for mean surface evolution to accurately simulate observables related to ultrafast PCET processes. In this study, we simulate the time-dependent populations of the three lowest adiabatic states in the ET-PT (i.e., electron transfer preceding proton transfer) version of the same PCET model via the MQCL approach and compare them to the exact quantum results and those obtained via the fewest switches surface hopping (FSSH) approach. We find that the MQCL population profiles are in good agreement with the exact quantum results and show a significant improvement over the FSSH results. All of the mean surfaces are shown to play a direct role in the dynamics of the state populations. Interestingly, our results indicate that the population transfer to the second-excited state can be mediated by dynamics on the mean of the ground and second-excited state surfaces, as part of a sequence of nonadiabatic transitions that bypasses the first-excited state surface altogether. This is made possible through nonadiabatic transitions between different mean surfaces, which is the manifestation of coherence transfer in MQCL dynamics. We also investigate the effect of the strength of the coupling between the proton/electron and the solvent coordinate on the state population dynamics. Drastic changes in the population dynamics are observed, which can be understood in terms of the changes in the potential energy surfaces and the nonadiabatic couplings. Finally, we investigate the state population dynamics in the PT-ET (i.e., proton transfer preceding electron transfer) and concerted versions of the model. The PT-ET results confirm the participation of all of the mean surfaces, albeit in different proportions compared to the ET-PT case, while the concerted results indicate that the mean of the ground- and first-excited state surfaces only plays a role, due to the large energy gaps between the ground- and second-excited state surfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Relationship between population dynamics and the self-energy in driven non-equilibrium systems

We compare the decay rates of excited populations directly calculated within a Keldysh formalism to the equation of motion of the population itself for a Hubbard-Holstein model in two dimensions. While it is true that these two approaches must give the same answer, it is common to make a number of simplifying assumptions, within the differential equation for the populations, that allows one to interpret the decay in terms of hot electrons interacting with a phonon bath. Furthermore, we show how care must be taken to ensure an accurate treatment of the equation of motion for the populations due to the fact that there are identities that require cancellations of terms that naively look like they contribute to the decay rates. In particular, the average time dependence of the Green's functions and self-energies plays a pivotal role in determining these decay rates.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sub-daily virus sampling at the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series reveals diel and depth-structured population dynamics without community-level shifts

Ocean microbes contribute to biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem function, but they do so under top-down pressure imposed by viruses. While viruses are increasingly understood spatially and beginning to be incorporated into predictive modeling, high-frequency ocean virus dynamics remain understudied due to methodological challenges. Here we sampled stratified Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS) waters for 112 hours at sub-daily 4- (surface) or 12- (deep chlorophyll maximum) hour intervals, purified viral particles from these samples, sequenced their metagenomes, and used the resulting data to characterize high-frequency virus community dynamics. Aggregated community diversity metrics changed with depth, but were not statistically significant temporally at a fixed location. However, finer-scale population-level analyses revealed both depth and temporal change, including physicochemical depth-driven differences and, in surface waters, thousands of viral populations that exhibited statistically significant diel rhythms. Statistical analyses revealed three main archetypes of temporal dynamics that themselves differed in abundance patterns, host predictions, viral taxonomy, and gene functions. Among these, highlights include viruses resembling an archetype with a night peaking pattern in activity that include an over-representation of viruses that putatively infect Prochlorococcus, a phototrophic cyanobacteria. Together, these efforts provide baseline community- and population-scale short-time-frame observations relevant to future climate state modeling.

Carrillo, Alfonso [The Ohio State University, Colu↗
DOE OSTI2016

Study of a mixed dispersal population dynamics model

In this study, we consider a mixed dispersal model with periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions and its corresponding linear eigenvalue problem. This model describes the time evolution of a population which disperses both locally and non-locally. We investigate how long time dynamics depend on the parameter values. Furthermore, we study the minimization of the principal eigenvalue under the constraints that the resource function is bounded from above and below, and with a fixed total integral. Biologically, this minimization problem is motivated by the question of determining the optimal spatial arrangement of favorable and unfavorable regions for the species to die out more slowly or survive more easily. Our numerical simulations indicate that the optimal favorable region tends to be a simply-connected domain. Numerous results are shown to demonstrate various scenarios of optimal favorable regions for periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fusing time-varying mosquito data and continuous mosquito population dynamics models

Climate change is arguably one of the most pressing issues affecting the world today and requires the fusion of disparate data streams to accurately model its impacts. Mosquito populations respond to temperature and precipitation in a nonlinear way, making predicting climate impacts on mosquito-borne diseases an ongoing challenge. Data-driven approaches for accurately modeling mosquito populations are needed for predicting mosquito-borne disease risk under climate change scenarios. Many current models for disease transmission are continuous and autonomous, while mosquito data is discrete and varies both within and between seasons. This study uses an optimization framework to fit a non-autonomous logistic model with periodic net growth rate and carrying capacity parameters for 15 years of daily mosquito time-series data from the Greater Toronto Area of Canada. The resulting parameters accurately capture the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability of mosquito populations within a single geographic region, and a variance-based sensitivity analysis highlights the influence each parameter has on the peak magnitude and timing of the mosquito season. This method can easily extend to other geographic regions and be integrated into a larger disease transmission model. This method addresses the ongoing challenges of data and model fusion by serving as a link between discrete time-series data and continuous differential equations for mosquito-borne epidemiology models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗