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At least 19 records

Estimating population size of Pygoscelid Penguins from TM data

An estimate was made toward a continent wide population of penguins. The results indicate that Thematic Mapper data can be used to identify penguin rookeries due to the unique reflectance properties of guano. Strong correlations exist between nesting populations and rookery area occupied by the birds. These correlations allow estimation of the number of nesting pairs in colonies. The success of remote sensing and biometric analyses leads one to believe that a continent wide estimate of penguin populations is possible based on a timely sample employing ground based and remote sensing techniques. Satellite remote sensing along the coastline may well locate previously undiscovered penguin nesting sites, or locate rookeries which have been assumed to exist for over a half century, but never located. Observations which found that penguins are one of the most sensitive elements in the complex of Southern Ocean ecosystems motivated this study.

Olson, Charles E., Jr.↗

Getting more from heterogeneous HIV-1 surveillance data in a high immigration country: estimation of incidence and undiagnosed population size using multiple biomarkers

Most HIV infections originate from individuals who are undiagnosed and unaware of their infection. Estimation of this quantity from surveillance data is hard because there is incomplete knowledge about (i) the time between infection and diagnosis (TI) for the general population, and (ii) the time between immigration and diagnosis for foreign-born persons. We developed a new statistical method for estimating the incidence of HIV-1 and the number of undiagnosed people living with HIV (PLHIV), based on dynamic modelling of heterogeneous HIV-1 surveillance data. The methods consist of a Bayesian non-linear mixed effects model using multiple biomarkers to estimate TI of HIV-1-positive individuals, and a novel incidence estimator which distinguishes between endogenous and exogenous infections by modelling explicitly the probability that a foreign-born person was infected either before or after immigration. The incidence estimator allows for direct calculation of the number of undiagnosed persons. The new methodology is illustrated combining heterogeneous surveillance data from Sweden between 2003 and 2015. A leave-one-out cross-validation study showed that the multiple-biomarker model was more accurate than single biomarkers (mean absolute error 1.01 vs ≥1.95). We estimate that 816 [95% credible interval (CI) 775-865] PLHIV were undiagnosed in 2015, representing a proportion of 10.8% (95% CI 10.3-11.4%) of all PLHIV. Here, the proposed methodology will enhance the utility of standard surveillance data streams and will be useful to monitor progress towards and compliance with the 90–90-90 UNAIDS target.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Impact of the HIV-1 genetic background and HIV-1 population size on the evolution of raltegravir resistance

Background Emergence of resistance against integrase inhibitor raltegravir in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) patients is typically associated with selection of one of three signature mutations: Y143C/R, Q148K/H/R or N155H, representing three distinct resistance pathways. The mechanisms that drive selection of a specific pathway are still poorly understood. We reviewed the effect of the HIV-1 genetic background and population dynamics on the emergence of raltegravir resistance. Using deep sequencing we analyzed the integrase coding sequence (CDS) in longitudinal samples from five patients who initiated raltegravir plus optimized background therapy at viral loads > 5000 copies/ml. To investigate the role of the HIV-1 genetic background we created recombinant viruses containing the viral integrase coding region from pre-raltegravir samples from two patients in whom raltegravir resistance developed through different pathways. The in vitro selections performed with these recombinant viruses were designed to mimic natural population bottlenecks. Results Deep sequencing analysis of the viral integrase CDS revealed that the virological response to raltegravir containing therapy inversely correlated with the relative amount of unique sequence variants that emerged suggesting diversifying selection during drug pressure. In 4/5 patients multiple signature mutations representing different resistance pathways were observed. Interestingly, the resistant population can consist of a single resistant variant that completely dominates the population but also of multiple variants from different resistance pathways that coexist in the viral population. We also found evidence for increased diversification after stronger bottlenecks. In vitro selections with low viral titers, mimicking population bottlenecks, revealed that both recombinant viruses and HXB2 reference virus were able to select mutations from different resistance pathways, although typically only one resistance pathway emerged in each individual culture. Conclusions The generation of a specific raltegravir resistant variant is not predisposed in the genetic background of the viral integrase CDS. Typically, in the early phases of therapy failure the sequence space is explored and multiple resistance pathways emerge and then compete for dominance which frequently results in a switch of the dominant population over time towards the fittest variant or even multiple variants of similar fitness that can coexist in the viral population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Multi-Objective Hyperparameter Optimization for Spiking Neural Network Neuroevolution

Neuroevolution has had significant success over recent years, but there has been relatively little work applying neuroevolution approaches to spiking neural networks (SNNs). SNNs are a type of neural network that includes temporal processing component, are not easily trained using other methods, and can be deployed into energy-efficient neuromorphic hardware. In this work, we investigate two evolutionary approaches for training SNNs. We explore the impact of the hyperparameters of the evolutionary approaches, including tournament size, population size, and representation type, on the performance of the algorithms. We present a multi-objective Bayesian-based hyperparameter optimization approach to tune the hyperparameters to produce the most accurate and smallest SNNs. We show that the hyperparameters can significantly affect the performance of these algorithms. We also perform sensitivity analysis and demonstrate that every hyperparameter value has the potential to perform well, assuming other hyperparameter values are set correctly.

Parsa, Maryam↗

Adaptively resizing populations: Algorithm, analysis, and first results

Deciding on an appropriate population size for a given Genetic Algorithm (GA) application can often be critical to the algorithm's success. Too small, and the GA can fall victim to sampling error, affecting the efficacy of its search. Too large, and the GA wastes computational resources. Although advice exists for sizing GA populations, much of this advice involves theoretical aspects that are not accessible to the novice user. An algorithm for adaptively resizing GA populations is suggested. This algorithm is based on recent theoretical developments that relate population size to schema fitness variance. The suggested algorithm is developed theoretically, and simulated with expected value equations. The algorithm is then tested on a problem where population sizing can mislead the GA. The work presented suggests that the population sizing algorithm may be a viable way to eliminate the population sizing decision from the application of GA's.

Smith, Robert E.↗

The Small Size Debris Population at GEO from Optical Observations

We have observed the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) debris population at sizes smaller than 10 cm using optical observations with the 6.5-m Magellan telescope 'Walter Baade' at the Las Campanas Observatory in Chile. The IMACS f/2 imaging camera with a 0.5-degree diameter field of view has been used in small area surveys of the GEO regime to study the population of optically faint GEO debris. The goal is to estimate the population of GEO debris that is fainter than can be studied with 1-meter class telescopes. A significant population of objects fainter than R = 19th magnitude has been found. These objects have observed with angular rates consistent with circular orbits and orbital inclinations up to 15 degrees at GEO. A sizeable number of these objects have significant brightness variations ("flashes") during the 5-second exposure, which suggest rapid changes in the albedo-projected size product.

Seitzer, Patrick↗

Giant impactors - Plausible sizes and populations

The largest sizes of planetesimals required to explain spin properties of planets are investigated in the context of the impact-trigger hypothesis of lunar origin. Solar system models with different large impactor sources are constructed and stochastic variations in obliquities and rotation periods resulting from each source are studied. The present study finds it highly plausible that earth was struck by a body of about 0.03-0.12 earth masses with enough energy and angular momentum to dislodge mantle material and form the present earth-moon system.

Hartmann, William K.↗

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 m and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 m.

Xu, Y.-L.↗

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version . ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 micron and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 micron.

Xu, Y.-L.↗

Autonomous Environment-Monitoring Networks

Autonomous environment-monitoring networks (AEMNs) are artificial neural networks that are specialized for recognizing familiarity and, conversely, novelty. Like a biological neural network, an AEMN receives a constant stream of inputs. For purposes of computational implementation, the inputs are vector representations of the information of interest. As long as the most recent input vector is similar to the previous input vectors, no action is taken. Action is taken only when a novel vector is encountered. Whether a given input vector is regarded as novel depends on the previous vectors; hence, the same input vector could be regarded as familiar or novel, depending on the context of previous input vectors. AEMNs have been proposed as means to enable exploratory robots on remote planets to recognize novel features that could merit closer scientific attention. AEMNs could also be useful for processing data from medical instrumentation for automated monitoring or diagnosis. The primary substructure of an AEMN is called a spindle. In its simplest form, a spindle consists of a central vector (C), a scalar (r), and algorithms for changing C and r. The vector C is constructed from all the vectors in a given continuous stream of inputs, such that it is minimally distant from those vectors. The scalar r is the distance between C and the most remote vector in the same set. The construction of a spindle involves four vital parameters: setup size, spindle-population size, and the radii of two novelty boundaries. The setup size is the number of vectors that are taken into account before computing C. The spindle-population size is the total number of input vectors used in constructing the spindle counting both those that arrive before and those that arrive after the computation of C. The novelty-boundary radii are distances from C that partition the neighborhood around C into three concentric regions (see Figure 1). During construction of the spindle, the changing spindle radius is denoted by h. It is the final value of h, reached before beginning construction on the next spindle, that is denoted by r. During construction of a spindle, if a new vector falls between C and the inner boundary, the vector is regarded as completely familiar and no action is taken. If the new vector falls into the region between the inner and outer boundaries, it is considered unusual enough to warrant the adjustment of C and r by use of the aforementioned algorithms, but not unusual enough to be considered novel. If a vector falls outside the outer boundary, it is considered novel, in which case one of several appropriate responses could be initiation of construction of a new spindle.

Hand, Charles↗

Do Genetic Drift and Gene Flow Affect the Geographic Distribution of Female Plants in Gynodioecious Lobelia siphilitica?

Variation in population sex ratio is particularly pronounced in gynodioecious angiosperms. Extremely high female frequencies in gynodioecious populations cannot be readily explained by selective forces alone. To assess the contributions of drift and gene flow to extreme sex-ratio variation, we documented sex ratio and population size in 92 populations of Lobelia siphilitica across its range and genotyped plants using plastid and nuclear genetic markers. Similarity in spatial patterns of genetic and demographic variables may suggest that drift and/or gene flow have contributed to population sex-ratio variation in L. siphilitica. We found strong spatial structuring of extremely high female frequencies: populations with >50% female plants are restricted to the south–central portion of the range. However, we did not detect any spatial structuring in population size nor metrics of genetic diversity, suggesting that extreme variation in female frequency is not strongly affected by drift or gene flow. Extreme sex-ratio variation is frequently observed in gynodioecious plants, but its causes are difficult to identify. Further investigation into mechanisms that create or maintain the spatial structure of sex ratios in gynodioecious species will provide much needed insight.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating the Particle Growth in Bimodal Pt/C Catalysts by In-Situ Small-Angle X-ray Scattering: Challenges in the Evaluation of Stress Test Protocol-Dependent Degradation Mechanisms

The influence of different combinations of accelerated stress test (AST) protocols simulating load-cycle and start/stop conditions of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) vehicle is investigated on a bimodal Pt/C catalyst. The bimodal Pt/C catalyst, prepared by mixing two commercial catalysts, serves as a model system and consists of two distinguishable size populations. The change in mean particle size was investigated by in situ small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). The comparison to the reference catalysts, i.e., the two single-size population catalysts, uncovers the presence of electrochemical Ostwald ripening as a degradation mechanism in the bimodal catalyst. Increasing the harshness of the applied AST protocol combinations by faster changing between load-cycle or start/stop conditions, the particle size of the larger population of the bimodal catalyst increases faster than expected. Surprisingly, the change in mean particle size of the smaller size population indicates a smaller increase for harsher AST protocols, which might be explained by a substantial electrochemical Ostwald ripening.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dynamic regimes of local homogeneous population model with time lag

We investigated Moran - Ricker model with time lag 1. It is made analytical and numerical study of the model. It is shown there is co-existence of various dynamic regimes under the same values of parameters. The model simultaneously possesses several different limit regimes: stable state, periodic fluctuations, and chaotic attractor. The research results show if present population size substantially depends on population number of previous year then it is observed quasi-periodic oscillations. Fluctuations with period 2 occur when the growth of population size is regulated by density dependence in the current year.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Footprints of Worldwide Adaptation in Structured Populations of Drosophila melanogaster Through the Expanded DEST 2.0 Genomic Resource

Abstract Large-scale genomic resources can place genetic variation into an ecologically informed context. To advance our understanding of the population genetics of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster, we present an expanded release of the community-generated population genomics resource Drosophila Evolution over Space and Time (DEST 2.0; https://dest.bio/). This release includes 530 high-quality pooled libraries from flies collected across six continents over more than a decade (2009 to 2021), most at multiple time points per year; 211 of these libraries are sequenced and shared here for the first time. We used this enhanced resource to elucidate several aspects of the species' demographic history and identify novel signs of adaptation across spatial and temporal dimensions. For example, we showed that the spatial genetic structure of populations is stable over time, but that drift due to seasonal contractions of population size causes populations to diverge over time. We identified signals of adaptation that vary between continents in genomic regions associated with xenobiotic resistance, consistent with independent adaptation to common pesticides. Moreover, by analyzing samples collected during spring and fall across Europe, we provide new evidence for seasonal adaptation related to loci associated with pathogen response. Furthermore, we have also released an updated version of the DEST genome browser. This is a useful tool for studying spatiotemporal patterns of genetic variation in this classic model system.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

The Impact of Variability in Patient Exposure During Premarket Clinical Development on Postmarket Safety Outcomes

We characterized the size of the premarket safety population for 278 small-molecule new molecular entities (NMEs) and 61 new therapeutic biologics (NTBs) approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) between October 1, 2002, and December 31, 2014, evaluating the relationship of premarket safety population size to regulatory characteristics and postmarket safety outcomes. The median size of the safety population was 1,044, and was lower for NTBs than NMEs (median: 920 vs. 1,138, P = 0.04), orphan products than nonorphan products (393 vs. 1,606, P < 0.001), and for products with fast-track designation (617 vs. 1,455, P < 0.001), priority review (630 vs. 1,735, P < 0.001), and accelerated approval (475 vs. 1,164, P < 0.001), than products without that designation. The median number of postmarket safety label updates and issues added to the label were higher with larger premarket exposure among nonorphan products, but not among orphan products. Products with accelerated approval using a surrogate end point had a higher median number of safety issues added to the label than those with full approval, but this did not vary with the size of the safety population; fast-track and priority review were not associated with the number of safety issues added to the label. Here, a smaller safety population size was associated with a longer time to first safety outcome for nonorphan products but not orphan products. For orphan and nonorphan products combined, smaller premarket safety population size is not associated with the number or timing of postmarket safety outcomes, regardless of expedited program participation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

COMPILE: a GWAS computational pipeline for gene discovery in complex genomes

Abstract Background Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) are used to identify genes and alleles that contribute to quantitative traits in large and genetically diverse populations. However, traits with complex genetic architectures create an enormous computational load for discovery of candidate genes with acceptable statistical certainty. We developed a streamlined computational pipeline for GWAS (COMPILE) to accelerate identification and annotation of candidate maize genes associated with a quantitative trait, and then matches maize genes to their closest rice and Arabidopsis homologs by sequence similarity. Results COMPILE executed GWAS using a Mixed Linear Model that incorporated, without compression, recent advancements in population structure control, then linked significant Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) to candidate genes and RNA regulatory elements contained in any genome. COMPILE was validated using published data to identify QTL associated with the traits of α-tocopherol biosynthesis and flowering time, and identified published candidate genes as well as additional genes and non-coding RNAs. We then applied COMPILE to 274 genotypes of the maize Goodman Association Panel to identify candidate loci contributing to resistance of maize stems to penetration by larvae of the European Corn Borer ( Ostrinia nubilalis ). Candidate genes included those that encode a gene of unknown function, WRKY and MYB-like transcriptional factors, receptor-kinase signaling, riboflavin synthesis, nucleotide-sugar interconversion, and prolyl hydroxylation. Expression of the gene of unknown function has been associated with pathogen stress in maize and in rice homologs closest in sequence identity. Conclusions The relative speed of data analysis using COMPILE allowed comparison of population size and compression. Limitations in population size and diversity are major constraints for a trait and are not overcome by increasing marker density. COMPILE is customizable and is readily adaptable for application to species with robust genomic and proteome databases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗