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At least 19 records

Ultrafast population and structural dynamics of a Ni-bipyridine photoredox catalyst reveal a significant deactivation pathway

The ultrafast excited state pathways and dynamics of NiII-bipyridine complexes influence the yield of photochemical processes involved in their catalytic cross-coupling reactions. Here we present ultrafast Ni K x-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) and x-ray solution scattering (XSS) of a NiII-bipyridine aryl halide complex, [Ni(t-Bubpy)(o-tol)Br], to quantify the excited state population dynamics and structural changes of the pre-catalyst. Due to the local spin-sensitivity of XES, the population dynamics of metal-to-ligand charge transfer (MLCT) and metal-centered (MC) excited states is established. A rapid ground state recovery pathway is newly identified, representing a significant deactivation pathway during photocatalysis. Furthermore, the pseudotetrahedral structure of the long-lived MC excited state is unambiguously identified and refined by XSS. The results advance our understanding of the ultrafast relaxation mechanisms that impact the photocatalytic mechanism and yield for NiII-bipyridine aryl halide cross-coupling catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Supersonically expanded sodium metal-dilute halogen gas interactions. The importance of reaction populated and energy storing reservoir states and population inversion created amplification in Na2

The reactions of Cl, Br, and I with Nan=2,3 produced in a supersonic expansion form Na2* and Na* excited states extending across the visible and ultraviolet regions. Emission in the region extending from 410 to 600 nm indicates selectively formed excited state Na2 emission features. Experimental evidence suggests that this emission is associated with Na3 + X reactions. Broadband (0.5 cm−1) laser measurements demonstrate gain (population inversion) for select features at∼524–528(1%), ∼492(0.3%), and ∼458.7–461(0.8%) nm. Single mode (0.007 cm−1) measurements extending from 528.03 to 527.63 nm demonstrate amplification involving five to six individual rovibronic levels with a maximum gain close to 3% recorded at 527.9 nm. The observed gain is associated with select transitions from levels of the Na2 11Πu state populated, via identified curve crossings, through collision induced transfer from long-lived Na2 21Σg+ and 11Πg reservoir states. Collision induced population buildup in the lowest vibrational levels of these reservoir states and collision induced transfer to the Na2 11Πu state create a population inversion in transitions to the X 1Σg+ state of Na2. The observed amplification is aided by rapid vibrational and rotational relaxation in both the Na2 ground and excited reservoir states producing amplifiers in the visible region like the HF amplifier in the infrared. This study suggests the importance of reaction populated and energy storing long-lived reservoir states in small sodium molecule combustion processes and indicates the potential for providing new short wavelength visible and ultraviolet amplifiers for future laser-based chemical propulsion concepts.

Chemistry↗

Microcoleus (Cyanobacteria) form watershed-wide populations without strong gradients in population structure

The relative importance of separation by distance and by environment to population genetic diversity can be conveniently tested in river networks, where these two drivers are often independently distributed over space. To evaluate the importance of dispersal and environmental conditions in shaping microbial population structures, we performed genome-resolved metagenomic analyses of benthic Microcoleus -dominated cyanobacterial mats collected in the Eel and Russian River networks (California, USA). The 64 Microcoleus genomes were clustered into three species that shared >96.5% average nucleotide identity (ANI). Most mats were dominated by one strain, but minor alleles within mats were often shared, even over large spatial distances (>300 km). Within the most common Microcoleus species, the ANI between the dominant strains within mats decreased with increasing spatial separation. However, over shorter spatial distances (tens of kilometres), mats from different subwatersheds had lower ANI than mats from the same subwatershed, suggesting that at shorter spatial distances environmental differences between subwatersheds in factors like canopy cover, conductivity, and mean annual temperature decreases ANI. Since mats in smaller creeks had similar levels of nucleotide diversity (π) as mats in larger downstream subwatersheds, within-mat genetic diversity does not appear to depend on the downstream accumulation of upstream-derived strains. The four-gamete test and sequence length bias suggest recombination occurs between almost all strains within each species, even between populations separated by large distances or living in different habitats. Overall, our results show that, despite some isolation by distance and environmental conditions, sufficient gene-flow occurs among cyanobacterial strains to prevent either driver from producing distinctive population structures across the watershed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Spin-squeezing-induced enhancement of the sensitivity of an atomic clock using coherent population trapping

The coherent population trapping (CPT) effect is used for making compact atomic clocks. There are two types of CPT clocks: the one in which the Raman beams are applied continuously and the one in which two CPT pulses separated by a dark period are applied (Ramsey scheme). It is obvious that the technique of spin squeezing can only be applied to the Ramsey CPT clock to enhance the sensitivity. However, it is not apparent how to adapt to the CPT clock the protocols for the microwave clock using one-axis-twist squeezing (OATS), since the Ramsey CPT clock is not trivially equivalent to the Ramsey microwave clock. In this paper, we show explicitly how to adapt two protocols using OATS, namely, the Schrödinger cat state protocol (SCSP) and the generalization thereof, and the echo squeezing protocol (ESP), to the CPT clock. The ESP magnifies the phase shift by a factor of N / e , while the SCSP magnifies the phase shift by a factor of N / 2 , making it able to achieve a higher sensitivity in the presence of excess noise.

Li, Jinyang↗

Data for "Genetics of flooding tolerance in an F2 Miscanthus sacchariflorus ssp. lutarioriparius × M. sinensis population"

This dataset contains all data and supplementary materials from "Genetics of flooding tolerance in an F2 Miscanthus sacchariflorus ssp. lutarioriparius × M. sinensis population". 1. The dataset S1 table contains the raw phenotypic data collected during the experiment. 2. The dataset S2 table contains the LSmean values for the 24 traits studied. 3. The dataset S3 table contains the TASSEL GBSv2 map, marker information, and genotype data used for mapping. 4. The dataset S4 table contains information on candidate genes found in each of the QTL intervals. 5. The dataset S5 table contains the GO annotations and KEGG enrichment analyses for those candidate genes. 6. The dataset S6 table contains information on the sequences used to classify AP2 ERF transcription factors. 7. The dataset S7 table contains information on AP2 ERF orthologs between Miscanthus and rice based on synteny. 8. Supplementary file 1 contains the ANOVA results using the raw phenotypic data collected from protocol "A". 9. Supplementary file 2 contains the ANOVA results using the raw phenotypic data collected from protocol "B". 10. Supplementary file 3 contains notes on the comparison of SNP calling methods. 11. Supplementary file 4 is a script for analyzing candidate genes found in QTL intervals.

Miscanthus, flood, partial submergence, complete s↗

Initial Mobility Analysis for ORNL VA-EDH Synthetic Populations

Travel burdens are a major barrier to healthcare access among US Veteran patient populations, particularly those residing in rural areas. Spatial accessibility to points of care for US Veteran populations is commonly assessed in two ways. The first approach uses open data from the US Census to represent collective travel burdens, for example the distance between population-weighted census tract centroids and VHA points of care. The second approach uses restricted-access VHA patient data to measure travel costs (e.g., distance, time) for accessing points of care with respect to geolocated patient addresses and real or approximated transportation networks. While the advantage of the open data approach lies in its reproducibility, it has notable limitations in its tendency to infer individual travel behavior from aggregate population characteristics, a problem known as ecological fallacy. Conversely, while the patient data approach is able to account for individual travel behavior, its ability to account for localized access disparities (e.g., a neighborhood with exceptionally high transportation costs) and patient demographics is limited as protecting individual patient data requires their storage in closed systems with limited capacity for adequately modeling real-world travel patterns or for supplementing patient attributes. Additionally, the patient data approach cannot account for veterans who are not enrolled in the VHA system but who may be eligible for care. These challenges limit the ability to perform “what if” analyses on the effects of place-specific interventions on veteran populations with high access barriers to healthcare. To address these challenges, we explore the application of realistic synthetic populations to examine travel burdens and spatial accessibility issues among veteran patient populations. Synthetic populations provide a virtual, individually-resolved and cross-sectional representation of the veteran patient population that enables investigation of spatial access to points of care in ways in which aggregate data and patient data do not. First, synthetic populations allow one to directly assess how individuals access points of care, from synthesized residential locations to outpatient facilities on real-world transportation networks. Modeling access to points of care at the individual scale addresses the ecological fallacy problem associated with using aggregated census data to represent veteran populations and patterns of movement. Second, synthetic populations provide a means of completely representing an area’s veteran population using only publicly available, anonymized census microdata from the American Community Survey (ACS) to ensure the privacy of real-world individuals. Generating synthetic populations from the ACS also expands descriptive characteristics beyond what patient data typically offers to include socio-demographic, economic, housing, and mobility attributes. More detailed profiles of both VHA patient populations and veterans not enrolled in the VA system will provide a comprehensive picture of groups that may benefit from interventions or outreach. As an initial exercise for using synthetic populations to measure veteran travel burdens to VA care, we apply Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) UrbanPop capability to generate a series of synthetic VHA patient populations for 9 Veterans Integrated Services Networks (VISN) market areas in 9 Census Divisions across the continental United States, which are listed in Table 1. We use UrbanPop to produce synthetic populations for the VISN markets selected for each US Census Division, then assign VA outpatient clinic destinations to synthetic VHA patients based on travel about each VISN market’s road network. To demonstrate using the synthetic populations to evaluate healthcare travel burdens, we compare the time-based impedance between simulated home locations and VA outpatient clinics in each VISN market. We then perform validation exercises on the synthetic populations with respect to neighborhood (block group) demographic composition as well as patient mobility, comparing aggregate origin-destination statistics for the synthetic population to outpatient visits available in restricted patient data from the VA’s Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW) database.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Rapid recovery of invasive wild pig (Sus scrofa) populations following density reduction

Abstract Trapping is an effective strategy for control of invasive wild pig (Sus scrofa), but eradication of populations via trapping alone typically is impractical throughout much of the species’ introduced range. Consequently, recovery of wild pig populations to pre-trapping levels following control is a major impediment to success of long-term control. In this study, we conducted camera-trap surveys to monitor recovery of two wild pig populations immediately following density reductions achieved via trapping on two sites on the Savannah River Site, SC. We used spatial capture-recapture models to estimate wild pig density during seven 3 week periods spanning 12 months to: (1) determine the time required for populations to recover to pre-trapping levels; and (2) evaluate trends in population growth, density, and distribution during recovery. Recovery of both wild pig populations started immediately after trapping ceased, with populations reaching pre-trapping levels in 3 and 5 months. Threeweek population growth rates for each wild pig population during recovery averaged 1.28 (range = 1.11–1.39 on site 1) and 1.24 (range = 0.64–1.92 on site 2), which corresponded to a 345% and 132% increase in abundance (an increase of 141 and 126 individual wild pigs on site 1 and 2, respectively) of each population by the last survey period. Rapid recovery and growth beyond pre-trapping levels of wild pig populations likely were driven by residual wild pigs not removed by trapping and compensatory reproduction and immigration. Our study is one of the first to provide information on how quickly wild pig populations can recover following overall density reductions of 54–68% and indicates practitioners should be prepared to reinitiate trapping efforts in as little as 3 months to prevent recovery of wild pig populations following control.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗

Areal interpolation of population projections consistent with different SSPs from 1-km resolution to block level based on USA Structures dataset

Population data are normally collected at various census administrative levels, and areal interpolation of population is often required to transform population to the desired spatial resolution. Building footprint datasets, such as Microsoft building footprints, have proven to be useful in estimating population distribution and can therefore be used for areal interpolation of population. In addition to Microsoft building footprints, the recently released USA Structures dataset provides additional information such as building type and building height for some regions, which may provide valuable information for a better depiction of population distribution and improved population areal interpolation accuracy. In this study, we have conducted areal interpolation of population projections consistent with three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5) from 1-km grid cells to block level in Washington state for every ten years from 2020 to 2040 based on USA Structures. We assessed USA Structures-based population downscaling accuracy using U.S. decennial survey data in 2020 under three different downscaling schemes, including population downscaling from census tracts to block groups, from census tracts to blocks, and from block groups to blocks. The resulting accuracies were compared with those based on Microsoft building footprints. The comparison showed that USA Structures achieved higher accuracies across different population density regions and areas with different urbanization extent within our study area.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Data for "Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the shared socioeconomic pathways"

Datasets supporting findings and visualizations behind McManamay et al. (2024) Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the shared socioeconomic pathways. Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2eec Using a spatial modeling experiment at high resolution (1-km), this study compared how two alternative US population projections, varying in the spatially explicit nature of demographic patterns and migration, affect urban land dynamics simulated by the Spatially Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City development (SELECT) model for SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5. The numerical experiment, inputs and outputs are fully described in McManamay et al. (2024). The datasets summarize SELECT model simulations within urban areas and rural areas of the conterminous United States. For code to reproduce the results, please refer to https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/mcmanamay_etal_2024_erl Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details. Descriptions of the datasets are provided below. Dataset(s) Descriptions: Urban_Land_delta_UA_County.csv: Urban land area for original (default) population, updated population, and urban land delta (difference between the two) according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and year. Urban land is summarized for U.S. counties (FIPS code) and urban areas (GEOID) as unique areas within various counties. JO_Gao_pop_ufdelta.csv: Comparison of population differences and urban land differences between the origial (default) and updated population projections. City_Case_studies.csv: Differences in urban land areas arising from different population projections summarized for selected cities (Atlanta, Los Angeles, Houston, and New York) and their surrounding rural areas UA_county_FID.zip: Zipped folder of .tiff file depicting unique combination of urban areas and US counties used for summarizing urban land differences in urban and rural areas based on different population projections. ULD_clusters.zip: Zipped folder of .csv files depicting normalized changes in urban land delta (difference in urban land arising from population projections) and the respective Ward's hierarchical clusters, which group urban and rural areas based on similarities in temporal trends. Urban_Percent_change_2100.zip: Zipped folder of .csv files depicting percent changes in urban land area for year 2100 based on differences in the original (default) population and updated population. Each file is for SSPs and urban or rural areas.

Land↗

Population structure limits the use of genomic data for predicting phenotypes and managing genetic resources in forest trees

There is overwhelming evidence that forest trees are locally adapted to climate. Thus, genecological models based on population phenotypes have been used to measure local adaptation, infer genetic maladaptation to climate, and guide assisted migration. However, instead of phenotypes, there is increasing interest in using genomic data for gene resource management. We used whole-genome resequencing and common-garden experiments to understand the genetic architecture of adaptive traits in black cottonwood. We studied the potential of using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and genomic prediction to detect causal loci, identify climate-adapted phenotypes, and inform gene resource management. We analyzed population structure by partitioning phenotypic and genomic (single-nucleotide polymorphism) variation among 840 genotypes collected from 91 stands along 16 rivers. Most phenotypic variation (60 to 81%) occurred among populations and was strongly associated with climate. Population phenotypes were predicted well using genomic data (e.g., predictive abilityr> 0.9) but almost as well using climate or geography (r> 0.8). In contrast, genomic prediction within populations was poor (r< 0.2). We identified many GWAS associations among populations, but most appeared to be spurious based on pooled within-population analyses. Hierarchical partitioning of linkage disequilibrium and haplotype sharing suggested that within-population genomic prediction and GWAS were poor because allele frequencies of causal loci and linked markers differed among populations. Given the urgent need to conserve natural populations and ecosystems, our results suggest that climate variables alone can be used to predict population phenotypes, delineate seed zones and deployment zones, and guide assisted migration.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Population change is a main driver behind global environmental change, including urban land expansion. In future scenario modeling, assumptions regarding how populations will change locally, despite identical global constraints of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), can have dramatic effects on subsequent regional urbanization. Using a spatial modeling experiment at high resolution (1 km), this study compared how two alternative US population projections, varying in the spatially explicit nature of demographic patterns and migration, affect urban land dynamics simulated by the Spatially Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City development (SELECT) model for SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5. The population projections included: (1) newer downscaled state-specific population (SP) projections inclusive of updated international and domestic migration estimates, and (2) prevailing downscaled national-level projections (NP) agnostic to localized demographic processes. Our work shows that alternative population inputs, even those under the same SSP, can lead to dramatic and complex differences in urban land outcomes. Under the SP projection, urbanization displays more of an extensification pattern compared to the NP projection. This suggests that recent demographic information supports more extreme urban extensification and land pressures on existing rural areas in the US than previously anticipated. Urban land outcomes to population inputs were spatially variable where areas in close spatial proximity showed divergent patterns, reflective of the spatially complex urbanization processes that can be accommodated in SELECT. Although different population projections and assumptions led to divergent outcomes, urban land development is not a linear product of population change but the result of complex relationships between population, dynamic urbanization processes, stages of urban development maturity, and feedback mechanisms. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for spatial variations in the population projections, but also urbanization process to accurately project long-term urban land patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extrapolating Contaminant Effects from Individuals to Populations: A Case Study on Nanoparticle Toxicity to Daphnia Fed Environmentally Relevant Food Levels

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is charged with assessing the likelihood a chemical will have adverse environmental or ecological effects. When assessing the risk of a potential contaminant to biological organisms, ecologists are most concerned with the sustainability of populations of organisms, rather than protecting every individual. However, ERA most commonly relies on data on the effect of a potential contaminant on individuals because these experiments are more feasible than costly population-level exposures. In this work, we address the challenge of extrapolating these individual-level results to predict population-level effects. Previous per-capita population growth rate estimates calculated from individual-level exposures of Daphnia pulicaria to silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) at different food rations predict a critical daily food requirement for daphnid populations exposed to 200 μg/L AgNPs to avoid extinction. To test this, we exposed daphnid populations to the same AgNP concentration at three different food inputs, with the lowest ration close to the extinction threshold predicted from data on individuals. The two populations with the higher food inputs persisted, and the population with the lowest food input went extinct after 50 days but did persist through two generations. Further, we demonstrate that we can extrapolate between these levels of biological organization by parameterizing an individual-level biomass model with data on individuals’ response to AgNPs and using these parameters to predict the outcome for control and AgNP-exposed populations. Key to successful extrapolation is careful modeling of temporal changes in resource density, driven by both the experimental protocols and feedback from the consumer. The implication for ecotoxicology is that estimates of extinction thresholds based on studies of individuals may be reliable predictors of population outcomes, but only with careful treatment of resource dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗

Increasing temperature weakens the positive effect of genetic diversity on population growth

Abstract Genetic diversity and temperature increases associated with global climate change are known to independently influence population growth and extinction risk. Whether increasing temperature may influence the effect of genetic diversity on population growth, however, is not known. We address this issue in the model protist system Tetrahymena thermophila . We test the hypothesis that at temperatures closer to the species’ thermal optimum (i.e., the temperature at which population growth is maximal, or T opt ), genetic diversity should have a weaker effect on population growth compared to temperatures away from the thermal optimum. To do so, we grew populations of T . thermophila with varying levels of genetic diversity at increasingly warmer temperatures and quantified their intrinsic population growth rate, r . We found that genetic diversity increases population growth at cooler temperatures, but that as temperature increases, this effect weakens. We also show that a combination of changes in the amount of expressed genetic diversity (G) in r , plastic changes in population growth across temperatures (E), and strong G × E interactions underlie this temperature effect. Our results uncover important but largely overlooked temperature effects that have implications for the management of small populations with depauperate genetic stocks in an increasingly warming world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Impact of Metal Population Distribution in MFI-Supported Mo Catalysts for Methane Dehydroaromatization

Precise evaluation of intrinsic kinetic behavior in Mo/MFI catalysts for methane dehydroaromatization (MDA) is confounded by variations in Mo dispersion and speciation, which are influenced by metal loading and zeolite acidity. This work advances the utility of H 2 -temperature programmed reduction (H 2 -TPR) for characterizing Mo/MFI catalysts by enabling quantitative comparison of MoO x populations distinguished by reduction behavior and linked to initial catalytic performance. A comprehensive H 2 reduction pathway is established through systematic H 2 - TPR studies varying catalyst composition (1–10 wt % Mo, Si/Al = 15, 40, ∞), supplemented by UV-Raman spectroscopy, X-ray powder diffraction, N 2 physisorption, NH 3 -TPD, and advanced spectroscopic analysis (in situ XAS with principal component analysis/multivariate curve resolution—alternating least squares). Two low-temperature H 2 -TPR regions capture distinct Mo populations undergoing initial Mo(VI)→Mo(IV) reduction: a lower-temperature population (Mo-RI) associated primarily with highly dispersed, anchored MoO x species expected to predominantly reside within MFI channels, and a higher-temperature population (Mo-RII) corresponding to a broader set of MoO x species that becomes increasingly bulk-like/extrazeolitic at higher Mo loading. Quantification of these populations provides practical, kinetically relevant descriptors for comparing initial MDA rates across catalysts with varying Mo loading, Si/Al ratio, and MoO x heterogeneity. Application of lower-temperature Mo-RI estimates to kinetic measurements reveals a minimum threshold of ∼0.12 × 10 –3 mol Mo-RI/g cat , above which initial forward benzene rates normalized to this population converge despite differences in metal loading and zeolite Brønsted acidity. This threshold coincides with a transition toward a common C 2 -mediated benzene-forming regime, as indicated by approach-to-equilibrium analysis of methane-to-ethane, ethane-to-ethylene, and ethylene-to-benzene reaction steps. Above this threshold, normalized initial benzene rates are nearly invariant with increasing Mo-RII/Mo-RI population ratio, indicating that excess Mo-RII populations, including bulk-like/extrazeolitic MoO x domains present at higher loading, do not measurably suppress benzene formation associated with anchored and mostly channel-confined Mo population under the initial-rate conditions examined.

Mo/MFI↗

Different Spatiotemporal Patterns in Global Human Population and Built‐Up Land

Abstract Population concentration and built‐up land expansion are two prominent features of contemporary urbanization. Existing literature on the population aspect of urbanization has mostly focused on national and regional aggregates, and literature on the land development aspect has often relied on spatial case studies of individual cities or their meta‐analyses. Using newly‐available data, here we conduct the first global‐coverage, spatial analysis of the relationship between (changes in) population and built‐up land at multiple spatial scales, and compare to existing common beliefs about urbanization based on individual city studies. We find that population and built‐up land show distinctly different spatial and temporal patterns (with a global correlation coefficient around 0.6). Contrary to common impressions, our results show that during recent decades, developed and developing regions across the world experienced comparable amounts of built‐up land expansion. While meta‐analyses have reported that built‐up land in urban areas expands globally on average twice as fast as population grows, our results show the global change rates of built‐up land and population are similar. Also, most global population, including what national statistics agencies call urban population, reside in areas with low land development levels (which are frequently less than 5% built up). These changes in perspective suggest that urbanization's potential large‐scale impacts may need to be re‐evaluated, and lead to best‐practice recommendations for urbanization modeling and analysis. Especially, the common practice in large‐scale earth system modeling of assuming demographically‐defined urban population resides in areas with medium to high built‐up land development levels should change.

Gao, Jing↗