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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Observations of PV Systems Post-Hurricane

NREL's observations of post-hurricane photovoltaic (PV) systems were shared with PV reliability researchers during the Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop held in Lakewood, Colorado the week of February 26, 2018. NREL hosts an annual Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (PVRW) so that solar technology experts can share information leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology - both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace. This presentation is intended to share real world examples of PV survivability during and after Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Delayed coastal inundations caused by ocean dynamics post-Hurricane Matthew

Post Hurricane Abnormal Water Level (PHAWL) poses a persistent inundation threat to coastal communities, yet unresolved knowledge gaps exist regarding its spatiotemporal impacts and causal mechanisms. Using a high-resolution coastal model with a set of observations, we find that the PHAWLs are up to 50 cm higher than the normal water levels for several weeks and cause delayed inundations around residential areas of the U.S. Southeast Coast (USSC). Numerical experiments reveal that while atmospheric forcing modulates the coastal PHAWLs, ocean dynamics primarily driven by the Gulf Stream control the mean component and duration of the shelf-scale PHAWLs. Because of the large spatial impact of the post-hurricane oceanic forcing, the coastal hazards are not limited to a direct hit from a hurricane but can be detected throughout the USSC where the oceanic processes reach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) for Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery

Tropical cyclones are an important cause of forest disturbance, and major storms caused severe structural damage and elevated tree mortality in coastal tropical forests. Model capabilities that can be used to understand post-hurricane forest recovery are still limited. We use a vegetation demography model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES) to study the processes and the key factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery. We implemented hurricane-induced forest damage, including defoliation, structural biomass reduction, and tree mortality, performed ensemble model simulations, and used random forest feature importance. For the simulation in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico, we identified factors controlling the post-hurricane forest recovery, and quantified the sensitivity of key model parameters to the post-hurricane forest recovery. The results indicate a tendency for the Bisley forests to shift toward the light demanding plant functional type (PFT) when the pre-hurricane biomass between the light demanding and shade tolerant PFTs is nearly equal and forests experience hurricane disturbance with mortality >60% for both the two PFTs. Under more realistic conditions where the shade tolerant PFT is initially dominant, mortality >80% is required for a shift toward dominance of the light demanding PFT at Bisley. Hurricane mortality and background mortality are the two major factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery in simulations. This research improves understanding of the ELM-FATES model behavior associated with hurricane disturbance and provides guidance for dynamic vegetation model development in representing hurricane induced forest damage with varied intensities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

After the hurricane: Validating a resilience assessment methodology

With increasing utility grid outages in the United States, there is growing interest in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of grid outages. Working with the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a replicable energy resilience assessment methodology and investment decision tool to: (1) identify and score hazards and vulnerabilities at the site level; (2) analyze risks to energy infrastructure; and (3) identify and prioritize energy resilience investments. This work improves on existing resilience assessment methodologies and tools by combining a bottom-up, all-hazards assessment methodology with top-down geographic information system mapping capabilities to provide an innovative, dynamic tool for identifying and prioritizing actionable solutions. This process combines probabilistic forecasting with an iterative approach for continuously updating and reassessing risks to address temporal dynamism. Relationships among systems are modeled and visualized to estimate the effectiveness of resilience actions across multiple interdependent systems and inform financial priorities through cost-difficulty-impact trade-offs. The approach is validated in a case study at Tyndall Air Force Base (AFB) in Florida, which experienced a Category 5 hurricane in 2018. The risks and mitigation strategies identified pre-hurricane are compared with post-hurricane, realized impacts. The assessment effectively identifies risks and actions to increase site energy resilience, but the methodology can be enhanced though greater consideration of the interdependencies between the energy system and related systems like transportation, communication, and food/water systems, which impact the recovery of the energy system and the base.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A framework to enhance disaster debris estimation with AI and aerial photogrammetry

This study addresses the critical need to enhance disaster preparedness and response, focusing on hurricane impact assessment and debris estimation. Accurate assessments in this context are critical for post-event search-and-rescue (SAR) operations and resource distribution. Recent computing advancements are revealing the potential of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in collecting data and assisting with post-hurricane reconnaissance. However, the use of AI and UAV photogrammetry for accurate disaster impact analysis remains underexplored. To this end, this study proposes a damage and debris analysis framework harnessing reality capture through aerial imagery and photogrammetry. Within this framework, a region-based neural network is leveraged to detect debris locations in aerial imagery with favorable performance. In a testbed within the Beaumont-Port Arthur region, in Southeast Texas, this study performs 3D reality captures of the built environment. Since the accuracy of the 3D reality capture is of importance in research areas associated with time-sensitive disaster response, we further investigate the optimal 2D aerial imagery overlap ratio required to generate a sufficiently accurate 3D model for disaster impact analysis and debris volume estimation. Results indicate that, in the case of aerial imagery for infrastructure systems, a minimum of 60 % overlap is recommended for damage assessment and debris analysis. In contrast, for flat green areas, a minimum of 50 % overlap is adequate. Overall, for disaster response applications, our study reveals that an overlap ratio between 60 % and 70 % is optimal for achieving a balance between time efficiency and data quality in aerial data collection. Furthermore, these quantitative recommendations are crucial for enabling efficient disaster response efforts. Additionally, our study outcomes will improve disaster impact analysis and facilitating timely and effective response strategies.

Artificial intelligence↗

Remote sensing and statistical analysis of the effects of hurricane María on the forests of Puerto Rico

Widely recognized as one of the worst natural disaster in Puerto Rico's history, hurricane María made landfall on September 20, 2017 in southeast Puerto Rico as a high-end category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale causing widespread destruction, fatalities and forest disturbance. This study focused on hurricane María's effect on Puerto Rico's forests as well as the effect of landform and forest characteristics on observed disturbance patterns. In this work, we used Google Earth Engine (GEE) to assess the severity of forest disturbance using a disturbance metric based on Landsat 8 satellite data composites with pre and post-hurricane María. Forest structure, tree phenology characteristics, and landforms were obtained from satellite data products, including digital elevation model and global forest canopy height. Our analyses showed that forest structure, and characteristics such as forest age and forest type affected patterns of forest disturbance. Among forest types, highest disturbance values were found in sierra palm, transitional, and tall cloud forests; seasonal evergreen forests with coconut palm; and mangrove forests. For landforms, greatest disturbance metrics was found at high elevations, steeper slopes, and windward surfaces. As expected, high levels of disturbance were also found close to the hurricane track, with disturbance less severe as hurricane María moved inland. Results demonstrated that forest and landform characteristics accounted for 34% of the variation in spatial forest spectral disturbance patterns. This study demonstrated an informative regional approach, combining remote sensing with statistical analyses to investigate factors that result in variability in hurricane effects on forest ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Panel-Segmentation [SWR-21-18]

Panel-Segmentation contains the scripts for automated metadata extraction of solar PV installations, using satellite imagery coupled with computer vision techniques. In this package, the user can perform the following actions: *Automatically generate a satellite image using a set of lat-long coordinates, and a Google Maps API key. Users would need to set up a Google Cloud account and get a Maps Static API key. Please refer to Setting Up Google Maps Static API Key section for this process. *Perform image segmentation on the satellite image, to locate the solar array(s) in the image on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using an image segmentation model (panel_detection_model.pth). Get classification of the installation (rooftop, ground mounted fixed-tilt or tracking, carport, etc). *Perform azimuth estimation on each solar array cluster in the masked image. *Detect solar panels and get its latitude, longitude, and address within a geographic bounding box through the SOL-Searcher Pipeline. *Detect and calculate hurricane damage on solar installations given pre-hurricane and post-hurricane satellite imagery through the Hurricane Detection Pipeline. *Detect and calculate hail damage on solar installations given satellite imagery through the Hail Detection pipeline. *Convert NOAA MESH (Maximum Estimated Size of Hail) grib2 files into kml or geojson files. *Estimate tilt and azimuth of a solar array by processing USGS LiDAR data for the array’s location.

Edun, Ayobami↗

Assessing Simulations of Forest Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery in Puerto Rico by ELM-FATES Using Field Measurements

In the past three decades, Puerto Rico (PR) experienced five hurricanes that met or exceeded category three, and they caused severe forest structural damage and elevated tree mortality. To improve our mechanistic understanding of hurricane impacts on tropical forests and assess hurricane-affected forest dynamics in Earth system models, we use in situ forest measurements at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds in Northeast PR to evaluate the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES). The observations show that before Hurricane Hugo, 77.3% of the aboveground biomass (AGB) is from the shade-tolerant plant function type (PFT). The Hugo-induced mortality rates are over ~50%, and they induce a ~39% AGB reduction, which recovers to a level like the pre-Hugo condition in 2014, following a second, lower intensity hurricane, Georges. We perform numerical experiments that simulate damage from Hugo and Georges on the forests, including defoliation, sapwood and structural biomass damage, and hurricane-induced mortality. ELM-FATES can reasonably represent coexistence between the two PFTs–light-demanding and shade-tolerant–for both the pre-Hugo and post-Hugo conditions. The model represents a reasonable size distribution of mid-and large-sized trees although it underestimates AGB, likely due to the overestimated nonhurricane mortality. ELM-FATES temporarily stimulated leaf biomass and diameter increment after Georges, an effect that should be tested with observations of future hurricane defoliation events. This research indicates that addressing model-data mismatches in tree mortality and understory dynamics are essential to simulation of more extreme hurricane effects under climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗