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At least 19 records

Power Density Distributions in Electron Beams

Measuring and controlling the power density distribution of electron beams used for welding is critical for producing repeatable welds and for transferring welding parameters between different machines. On any given machine, the power density distribution is controlled by defocusing the beam relative to its sharpest focused condition. However, measuring the power density distribution can be difficult due to the intense nature of welding beams and is further complicated by imperfect electron optics that can distort the beam, making it difficult to quantify. The enhanced modified Faraday cup (EMFC) diagnostic method was used here for beam analysis that utilizes computed tomography to reconstruct the beam’s power density distribution. These results were compared to the International Standards Organization (ISO) method for characterizing laser beams using a second-moment D4σ calculation. For ideal Gaussian-shaped beams, both methods would give the same result. However, for imperfect beams, the calculated D4σ diameter was shown to be about 25% larger relative to the FWe2 diameter measured by the EMFC due to the heavier weighting of data in the tails of the beam by D4σ. Finally, although both methods produce repeatable welds, it is important to understand the differences in the reported beam diameters, divergence angles, and beam parameter products when transferring parameters between machines.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Astigmatic electron beam propagation

An astigmatic electron beam with an ellipticity ratio of approximately 2:1 was examined using the Enhanced Modified Faraday Cup (EMFC) diagnostic to measure its properties and show how the power density distribution varies near the beam waist. Results show that the beam has two power density peaks, one on either side of the beam crossover point, resulting from different focal distances of the major and minor axes of the elliptical beam shape. Quantification of the beam properties was used to establish a depth-of-field where the beam diameter and peak power densities are relatively constant. For the 1 kW beam studied here, the depth-of-field measured approximately ±5 mm from the beam crossover point, illustrating how electron beam diagnostics can be used to identify process control limits for repeatable and reliable welds under non-ideal electron beam power density distribution conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The effect of filament peaking on electron beam weld quality

Electron beam welding uses high intensity beams that are generated by an electron emitting cathode under high vacuum conditions. The cathode, typically a ribbon or wire filament of refractory metal, must be heated to sufficiently high temperatures for electron emission to occur and must be carefully controlled to produce the desired beam current while at the same time optimizing filament lifetime. Traditional methods for doing this in commonly used triode gun assemblies consist of first finding the filament knee point in the filament current versus beam current relationship that produces the desired beam current for a given beam voltage. The filament current is then increased by some amount, typically 5–10%, per conventional wisdom to produce a peaked beam. This investigation studies and quantifies the beam and weld quality produced by underkneed and overpeaked filaments using electron beam diagnostics to measure the power density distribution of these beams. Underkneed filaments are shown to have power densities that drop off very quickly below the traditional knee, resulting in poor weld penetration. Kneed filaments do not reach the full beam intensity and also produce shallow welds. Increasing the filament current 10% above the traditional knee was shown to produce a circular Gaussian-like beam with peaked intensity optimized for welding and for filament lifetime. Further increases in the filament current that produce overpeaked beams do not significantly change the beam or weld quality and would only contribute to a reduced filament lifetime.

Electron Beam Welding↗

The Monolithic Heat Pipe Microreactor Reference Plant Model

This work introduces a reference plant model for a generic monolithic heat-pipe-cooled microreactor. The model will serve as a springboard to develop future evaluation models in the licensing process of similar microreactor designs at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This model has been developed with the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle and its specifications are based on open literature publications for the eVinci TM design. BlueCRAB is the U.S. Nu- clear Regulatory Commission non-light-water reactor analysis system based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment framework, which can couple the Griffin, BISON, and Sockeye applications to resolve the various physics that are essential for the safety analysis of this type of reactor system. The core specifications includes tristructural isotropic fuel, graphite monolith, graphite reflectors, and drums composed of graphite and B 4 C. No moderator or burnable poison pins are used in the design. The fuel enrichment is reduced to control excess reactivity in the core. This core design is not optimized and only serves for testing purposes, since the primary objective of this work is to exercise the multiphysics coupling for this type of reactor system. A three dimensional (3D) core heterogeneous Griffin discrete ordinates (SN) transport model allows the precise calculation of the flux distribution and pin powers. Griffin transfers the power density distribution and obtains a temperature distribution to and from BISON. The BISON model com- putes the 3D core temperature distribution and is coupled to 876 Sockeye subapplications running a heat pipe model. This 3D conduction model is coupled to the various heat pipes via heat flux boundary conditions. The model includes a small gap between the heat pipe and the monolith. Convective heat transfer boundaries with either ambient temperature or condenser temperature as heat sinks are imposed at the model boundaries. The 2D Sockeye heat pipe model uses a vapor- only methodology, which provides the needed resolution for transient calculations and allows the determination of various heat pipe limits. This approach is superior to the superconductor model traditionally used in steady-state calculations. BlueCRAB computes steady-state power and temperature distributions that serve as the initial condition for a loss-of-heat-sink transient simulation. The steady-state results show significant peaking due to the position of the control drum, but this is a characteristic of the particular design used, which is not optimized at this stage. The transient results show the reactor power slowly stabilizing towards a 3% power level after the partial loss of secondary heat removal. Several recriticalities are observed due to cooling through the secondary system but the reactor is self-stabilizing and behaves as expected.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Advancements in Multiphysics Microdepletion Analysis of an eVinci TM -like Microreactor Leveraging OpenMC-CRAB Workflow

Nuclear microreactors (MRs) are a class of nuclear reactor technology, characterized by reduced dimensions, modular design, and reduced power output in contrast to conventional Light Water Reactors (LWRs). MRs are proposed for supplying electricity and eventual process heat to remote locations, such as military installations and disaster-affected areas. Current research work sponsored by the US Department of Energy Microreactor Program (MRP) is devoted to the development of novel modeling and simulation tools to better support MR vendors and regulatory bodies. Notably, the NRC is projected to utilize the CRAB multiphysics software driver for executing both design and beyond-design-basis accident analyses. Furthermore, the NRC has been utilizing the MELCOR code to calculate mechanistic source terms during accidents. Since MELCOR relies on isotopic inventory and reactor temperature/power profiles under accident conditions, which theoretically can be derived from CRAB, the goal is to establish a comprehensive CRAB-MELCOR computational framework. Past work was focused on testing and demonstrating CRAB's capability to generate results that can be used to inform mechanistic source term calculations in MELCOR. In particular, a computational workflow leveraging OpenMC-generated microscopic cross sections and CRAB was first applied to perform multiphysics microscopic depletion calculation followed by an accident scenario for a stylized microreactor problem. In fiscal year 2024, the research work has been focused on applying the OpenMC-CRAB workflow, which was first tested in fiscal year 2023, to a realistic 3D heat-pipe cooled MR problem representative of the eVinci TM design. The latter computational problem was developed with inputs from WEC to conserve selected neutronic and thermal characteristics of the eVinci TM design without releasing proprietary data. The results of this simulation, encompassing isotopic inventory, power density distribution, and kinetic parameters, will inform both MELCOR and the WEC-developed FATE code for mechanistic source terms calculations. The results from the two codes will then be compared for code verification purposes. This report contains the design characteristics of the realist heat pipe cooled microreactor developed as a use-case for the verification exercise, and the current results for the multiphysics microscopic depletion performed with the OpenMC-CRAB workflow. The results include eigenvalue as a function of time, power distribution at EOL, in addition to nuclides inventory's time evolution and spatial distribution. Finally, we report improvements to the workflow efficiency achieved through a collaboration with the NEAMS programs. Through this collaborative effort, we were able to strongly decrease the computational time for the multiphysics microdepletion calculation (i.e., from 17.4 hours to 5.7 hours on 280 processors) in addition to simplifying the interface to generate isotopics spatial distribution utilizable by FATE and MELCOR. Future work, including the improvement of the current microscopic cross-sections' library and the simulation of an accident scenario at EOL, is also discussed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Non-circular electron beam spot welds in stainless steel alloys

Circularly symmetric-shaped spot welds are desirable for welding applications as they relate to heat and fluid flow conditions in the melt pool with predictable weld penetrations and repeatable results. Non-circular spot welds on the other hand result in undesirable and unpredictable weld penetrations or non-bridging of the liquid melt pool across the joint. Two known causes for non-circular melt pools occur when welding dissimilar metals, or when welding with skewed electron or laser beams that are not perpendicular to the surface. A largely unexplored additional factor, shown here, is an asymmetric power density distribution within the beam that can create non-circular melt pools even though the beam dimensions are much smaller than the melt pool itself.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

HFIR High Power HEU Neutronics Analyses

Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration Office of Material Management and Minimization’s mission includes the conversion of civilian research reactors from highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. Analyses have shown that the Oak Ridge National Laboratory High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) will need to operate at 95 MW for the LEU silicide dispersion fuel designs to match key performance metrics obtained with HEU fuel at 85 MW. To prove safe operation of HFIR after installation of plant modifications to increase power, a high power HEU test cycle was proposed. Neutronics model updates and reactor physics analyses are performed to support the development of safety design reports for the high power (HP) HEU test cycle. Reactor physics metrics evaluated herein include fuel depletion, actinide production, cycle length, fission rate density distributions, axial power peaking factors, and reactor kinetic parameters. These reactor physics analyses support the development of future LEU safety design reports by providing key input for future HP HEU HFIR thermal hydraulics and reactor transient safety analyses.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Tunable phase-change metasurfaces coupled with mid-infrared molecular vibrations

Chiral optical metasurfaces have emerged as a promising platform in coupling with molecular vibrational fingerprints through the enhanced light-matter interaction under different circularly polarized light illumination. Here, this work reports the mode coupling between the mid-infrared phonon vibrations of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) molecules and the thermally tunable chiral metasurfaces based on the phase-change material Ge₂Sb₂Te₅ (GST-225). Phase-change chiral metasurfaces with high circular dichroism (CD) in absorption and tunable plasmonic resonance in the frequency range of 48–56 THz are demonstrated, which covers the phonon vibrational frequency of PMMA molecules at 52 THz. The mode splitting features are observed in the absorption and CD spectra when the metasurface resonance is tuned across the phonon vibrational frequency of PMMA molecules during the phase transition of GST-225. The underlying mechanism of molecule-metasurface coupling is further revealed by studying the electric field and power loss density distributions of the phonon–plasmon coupled modes under both left-handed and right-handed circularly polarized (LCP and RCP) light. The demonstrated results show the potential of dynamically tunable chiral metasurfaces for the applications in label-free molecular sensing, biomedical diagnostics, thermal imaging, and mid-infrared photonics.

Tang, Haotian [Missouri Univ. of Science and Techn↗

HFIR LEU High Density Silicide Dispersion Optimized Design Neutronics Analyses with PHAME

A high-fidelity neutronics model of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) with the low-enriched uranium (LEU) high-density silicide dispersion Optimized fuel design was updated and analyzed to generate reactor physics-based metrics to support follow-on thermal hydraulic and transient analyses of this design. The Python HFIR Analysis and Measurement Engine (PHAME) was also updated to enhance the automation capabilities of the framework developed and maintained to perform these reactor physics modeling and simulation efforts. The automated framework significantly increases the efficiency and reproducibility to design and thoroughly analyzes HFIR LEU core designs, changes, and uncertainties. Reactor physics metrics evaluated include but are not limited to fuel depletion, cycle length, fission rate density distributions, axial power peaking factors, kinetics data, reactivity coefficients, control element worths, heat deposition rates, and decay heat. These neutronics results provide essential input to follow-on steady state thermal, thermal hydraulic and reactor transient analyses, which are subject of other reports. The Optimized design operates at 95 MW to maintain HFIR’s current highly enriched uranium core performance level at 85 MW.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Assessment of the Impact of Realistic Sensor Physics and the Integration of Ex-Core Sensors on Reactor Power Synthesis

In the work documented in this report, a weighting function–based core power synthesis method was applied to multiple Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) reactor models, which are informed based on simulated self-powered neutron detector (SPND) responses. The weighting function method used has been coined the point-based iterative (PBI) method. The goal of this application is to assess the impact of considering realistic sensor physics in the generation of the simulated SPND outputs as well as to consider how the synthesis is impacted based on the inclusion of ex-core detectors in the model. The NuScale small modular reactor (SMR) and Westinghouse AP1000 pressurized water reactor (PWR) are the models that served as the testbeds for the assessment of realistic sensor physics; this was achieved by using Geant4 SPND models in comparison with analytical models, such that the effect of electron transport in realistic SPND geometries in the Geant4 model can be understood in terms of synthesis error and convergence time. The comparison was considered for fuel burnup–induced perturbations, for a range of sensor string densities and synthesized power distribution axial fidelities. The Texas A&M Testing, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics Reactor (TAMU TRIGA) reactor MCNP model was used to assess the impact of ex-core sensors; this was done by performing synthesis with and without the ex-core detectors and by quantifying the synthesis error and number of iterations associated with Gaussian-type perturbations in many locations in the core. The TAMU TRIGA model was particularly pertinent for this study because of the interest in future experimental tests with SPNDs in this reactor, as well as the ease of modifying the MCNP model to include ex-core detectors with heterogeneously described response functions. Results from the comparison between the Geant4 and analytical SPND models indicate that similar average and maximum synthesis errors were obtained for burnup-induced perturbations in both the NuScale SMR and the AP1000. This was true for a range of sensor string densities and axial fidelities. However, there were marked differences between both the Geant4 and analytically informed models in terms of the iterations required to converge on the synthesized power distribution. Namely, the Geant4-informed models tended to lead to fewer iterations, except for a few sensor–core configurations that had particularly numerous iterations. Results from the ex-core sensor assessment with the TAMU TRIGA model indicate that the inclusion of ex-core sensors drastically reduces the synthesis error of Gaussian-type perturbations close to the edge of the core, and it slightly reduces synthesis errors for perturbations closer to the center of the core. This was achieved with a minimal increase in computational cost—that is, the number of iterations required for convergence. The errors were identified to be in the same location as the perturbation in the core, indicating that the methodology remains robust for unperturbed regions of the core. A secondary result from this study with the TAMU TRIGA was yielded by analysis of the neutron flux levels in the in-core and ex-core sensor locations of the core; these flux levels indicate that SPNDs could be used as both in-core and ex-core sensors, so long as the emitter material is sensitive to thermal neutrons. The results from these studies provide a quantitative understanding of the importance of considering realistic sensor physics and including ex-core sensors to perform accurate and timely power distribution synthesis of a reactor core.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Effects of spatiotemporal plasma power distribution on the modeling of ignition kernel evolution in quiescent and turbulent methane/air mixtures

Abstract The present work improves a phenomenological plasma-assisted combustion model by integrating the spatiotemporal distribution of plasma power density, thereby considering the evolution of plasma streamers in the modeling, and subsequently, better predicting the ignition kernel evolution. The improved phenomenological model is validated against experiments representing the plasma discharge and post-discharge ignition kernel evolution. Specifically, the new model demonstrates a more accurate prediction of ultrafast gas heating and O 2 dissociation during the plasma discharge, compared to the original model. In addition, the new model is found to closely match the experimental pressure wave and heated channel profiles post-discharge without the need for tuning the energy deposition (unlike the original model), highlighting its accuracy of post-discharge ignition kernel dynamics. The improved phenomenological model is then employed to investigate ignition kernel evolution for a stoichiometric methane-air discharge across various discharge gap configurations. Simulations reveal a non-uniform temperature and streamer distribution progressing from the electrode tips toward the center, contrasting uniform cylindrical discharges previously described in the original model. Streamer propagation is observed to be faster for larger gaps when maintained at the same average electric field for different discharge gaps. The tendency of smaller gaps to produce detached toroidal ignition kernels is observed, while larger gaps promote cylindrical and attached ignition kernels. Interactions between successive ignition kernels from consecutive discharges varied significantly, with the smallest gap (1 mm) promoting the quenching of the preceding ignition kernel due to the initial kernel–kernel separation. The intermediate gap (2 mm) promotes detached kernel growth. In contrast, in the largest gap (4 mm), kernels consistently combine and expand attached to electrodes. The impact of homogeneous isotropic turbulence is also explored, showing the persistence of ignition kernels early on but eventually quenching due to enhanced radical and heat losses with pronounced turbulence intensity.

Johnson, Praise Noah↗

Investigation of radiated-power for low aspect ratio fusion plasmas

Investigating radiated power in fusion plasmas is of utmost importance to understand the effect of undesired impurities, such as metals, in present devices, or also desired impurities, such as noble gasses, to purposefully radiate a large fraction of power in future devices. These studies are especially important for high Z impurities which will play a crucial role in future generation fusion pilot plants. In this work, we have developed a power radiation analysis module, which is used to investigate 2D distributions of impurity densities and radiated power asymmetries caused due to both plasma rotation and the cooling rate dependence on temperature profile for the cases of experimental NSTX plasmas and designed scenarios for the spherical tokamak advanced reactor (STAR), both being low aspect ratio tokamaks. Two different atomic databases have been tested during this work to study their impact on the radiated power distribution, especially for high Z impurities. Also in PRAM, self-consistent calculations of two-dimensional electron, main ion, and impurity ion densities are carried out using one-dimensional input density, temperature, and rotation profiles. In the case of NSTX, discharges with high rotation of ∼ 170 km s, measured with charge exchange recombination spectroscopy, have been investigated. Rotation-induced charge separation, leading to an electrostatic potential, is calculated iteratively to a self-consistent solution while testing high Z impurities to observe any 2D asymmetry in the core radiated power due to centrifugal forces. The STAR design, being much larger (R = 4 m), is projected to have a much lower rotation, and is shown to have low rotation-induced asymmetries, on the order of ten percent or less, between the low field and high field sides. However, another effect not due to rotation but to the dependence of impurity cooling rates on temperature can lead to radiation peaking off-axis, near the plasma edge. This effect is noticeable for argon in NSTX, for example, but can also be enhanced for certain impurities at much higher temperatures projected for STAR (T e0 ~ 32 keV), for example for undesired tungsten or possibly desired xenon.

NSTX↗

Legacy Metallic Fuel U(Pu)Zr Data Qualification

The Metallic Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD) is an organized collection of legacy metallic fuel U(Pu)Zr data, measurements, and reactor conditions from the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) and the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF). The database provides a wealth of information and is easily accessed and utilized by the U.S. nuclear industry and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The database contains three categories of data. The first category covers fuel pin fabrication specifications, including fuel slug diameter and length, cladding diameter, smeared density, etc. The second consists of operational conditions, which include axial distributions of power, temperature, fluence, burnup, isotopic density, etc. The third category contains post-irradiation examination (PIE) results, largely collected at facilities now part of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), formerly part of Argonne National Laboratory -West (ANL-W) and at the Alpha-Gamma Hot Cell Facility (AGHCF) at Argonne National Laboratory, comprising fission gas release and chemistry analysis, profilometry measurements, neutron radiography data, etc. All these data have been organized and preserved in FIPD.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Recent Metallic Fuel Data Recovery in FIPD

The Metallic Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD) [1] is an organized collection of metallic fuel test pin data (U-xPu-yZr, = 0 ~ 28; y = 2 ~ 10) and documentation available to industry. FIPD mainly contains three types of data: (1) Fuel pin fabrication data, including fuel slug diameter, fuel slug length, cladding diameter, smear density, etc. (2) Fuel pin operation conditions, including axial distributions for power, temperatures, fluences, burnup, and isotopic densities, etc. and (3) Fuel pin post-irradiation examination (PIE) data, including fission gas release and gas chemistry, profilometry, and neutron radiography, etc. The operating conditions for pins with PIE data available in FIPD span significant ranges across key parameters. The fuel peak burnup extends from less than 5% up to 20 at%. The cladding peak temperature varies from about 490°C to 660°C. Finally, the cladding peak DPA shows a wide range from less than 5 to 120. These broad ranges reflect the diverse testing conditions and operational parameters captured in the available PIE data. More detail about FIPD can be found in ref. [2]. The database development is an ongoing effort covering metallic fuel experiments from the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) and the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF). As reported in the ref. [3, 4], most of the PIE data generated during the IFR program [5] has been collected, reviewed, processed, and integrated into FIPD. The most recently added PIE data can be found in ref. [4], which shows the collection of over 95% of the PIE data by the time of this paper. The recent improvements to the database are summarized in this paper.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Stress due to electric charge density distribution in a dielectric slab

The spatial distribution of electric field due to an imposed electric charge density profile in an infinite slab of dielectric material is derived analytically by integrating Gauss’s law. Various charge density distributions are considered, including exponential and power-law forms. Here, the Maxwell stress tensor is used to compute a notional static stress in the material due to the charge density and its electric field. Characteristics of the electric field and stress distributions are computed for example cases in polyethylene, showing that field magnitudes exceeding the dielectric strength would be required in order to achieve a stress exceeding the ultimate tensile strength.

42 ENGINEERING↗

What Sets the Star Formation Rate of Molecular Clouds? The Density Distribution as a Fingerprint of Compression and Expansion Rates

We use a suite of 3D simulations of star-forming molecular clouds, with and without stellar feedback, magnetic fields, and driven turbulence, to study the compression and expansion rates of the gas as functions of density. We show that, around the mean density, supersonic turbulence promotes rough equilibrium between the amounts of compressing and expanding gas, consistent with continuous gas cycling between high- and low-density states. We find that the inclusion of protostellar jets produces rapidly expanding and compressing low-density gas. We find that the gas mass flux peaks at the transition between the lognormal and power-law forms of the density probability distribution function (PDF). This is consistent with the transition density tracking the post-shock density, which promotes an enhancement of mass at this density (i.e., shock compression and filament formation). At high densities, the gas dynamics are dominated by self-gravity: the compression rate in all of our runs matches the rate of the run with only gravity, suggesting that processes other than self-gravity have little effect at these densities. The net gas mass flux becomes constant at a density below the sink formation threshold, where it equals the star formation rate. The density at which the net gas mass flux equals the star formation rate is one order of magnitude lower than our sink threshold density, corresponds to the formation of the second power-law tail in the density PDF, and sets the overall star formation rates of these simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Advances in Metallic Fuel Database Development and Data Qualification

The Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD [1]) is a comprehensive repository of data and documents related to Uranium-Zirconium based metallic fuel test pins. This database stores operational conditions of these pins, calculated using a suite of Argonne National Laboratory analysis codes developed during the Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) program. Key calculated data include axial distributions of power, temperature, fluence, burnup, and isotopic densities. Additionally, the FIPD holds post-irradiation examination (PIE) data such as fission gas release, gas chemistry measurements, and axial distributions derived from profilometry, gamma scanning, and neutron radiography. Complementing these data is an extensive archive of documents related to various pins and experiments. These include raw PIE records, design details, safety analyses, and operational reports. More detail about FIPD can be found in ref. [2]. The database development is an ongoing effort covering metallic fuel experiments from the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) and the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF). The recent improvements to the database and the data QA status are summarized in this paper.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Loss Factors for Small Distributed Wind Turbines Based on Field Data in the United States

While wind energy production loss due to unavailability, environmental impacts, curtailment, and other causes has been studied and characterized at the utility-scale wind farm level, observation-based characterization of project loss is lacking for distributed wind energy, particularly for projects involving small wind turbines. Contemporary tools and research that support pre-construction distributed wind energy characterization present a wide range of default loss factors to convert gross energy estimates to net: 7-18%. We hypothesize that we can use generation observations from operational distributed wind projects to develop more accurate representations of loss. Using a density-based filtering technique on distributed wind power generation timeseries, we determine periods of typical performance and use them with regression algorithms in a measure-correlate-predict fashion to simulate what the generation would have been during periods of atypical or unreported performance. From there, the actual versus predicted generation leads to the establishment of observation-informed loss factors (median = 17%) for small, single turbine installation distributed wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗