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At least 19 records

Application of remote sensing precipitation data and the $\mathrm{CONNECT}$ algorithm to investigate spatiotemporal variations of heavy precipitation: Case study of major floods across Iran (Spring 2019)

In recent years, the number of floods following unprecedented rainfall events have increased in Iran during early spring (March 21st to April 20th, referred to in Iran as the month of “Farvadin”). While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes and precipitation trends at different temporal scales from daily to annual across the country, analyses of short-duration and heavy precipitation, especially during recent years, are rarely considered. Furthermore, most studies investigate the variations in extremes and total precipitation using a limited number of synoptic weather stations across Iran. Here this study assesses the variations in heavy precipitation (precipitation with intensities greater than or equal to 3 mm/3 h) at 0.04° spatial and 3-hourly temporal resolution during the month of Farvardin. In addition, the effect of atmospheric river conditions over Iran and their possible link to intensifying heavy precipitation is explored. For this purpose, the CONNected-objECT (CONNECT) algorithm is applied on a precipitation dataset, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), and an Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) dataset from the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2). The results suggest that the increase in the number of floods in recent years is related to the increase in the intensity and volume of heavy precipitation events, although the frequency and duration of heavy precipitation events have not changed significantly. Furthermore, the results show that atmospheric river conditions over the country are present during the same window as each year’s most extreme events. It is found that 8 out of 13 of the largest ARs over Iran come from moisture plumes with pathways over the African and Red Sea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi–year analysis of rain–snow levels at Marquette, Michigan

This study uses observations from a ground-based instrument suite to investigate the rain-snow level in stratiform rainfall from January 2014 to April 2020 in the Upper Great Lakes Region. The height above the surface where ice melts to rain, the rain-snow level (RSL), influences microphysical assumptions in remote sensing precipitation retrievals and the ability of space-based radar to discriminate surface precipitation phase because of ground clutter. The instrument suite is installed at the Marquette, MI (MQT) National Weather Service station adjacent to Lake Superior. Rain events and the RSL are studied through a ground-based vertically profiling radar (Micro Rain Radar), a custom NASA-developed video disdrometer (Precipitation Imaging Package), and reanalyses products from ECMWF ERA5 and NASA MERRA-2. Further, distinct macro and micro physical characteristics are observed in precipitation events with shallow RSL ( < 1.8 km above ground level [AGL]) and intermediate RSL ( > 1.8 km AGL). Intermediate RSL correspond to rain events with relatively higher rain rates and a higher concentration of small drops in the drop size distributions (DSDs). Shallow RSL DSDs contain relatively higher concentrations of large drops with lower fall speeds suggesting that partially melted snowflakes may be reaching the surface. Reflectivity-rain-rate relationships are also impacted by microphysical differences associated with RSL regimes. Radar-detected RSL agree with reanalysis-derived melt levels- especially at wet-bulb isotherms of 0.5°C and 1°C. Seasonal differences such as shallow rain-snow levels in winter, fall, and spring have subsequent implications for satellite detectability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a Full-Scale Connected U-Net for Reflectivity Inpainting in Spaceborne Radar Blind Zones

CloudSat’s Cloud Profiling Radar is a valuable tool for remotely monitoring high-latitude snowfall, but its ability to observe hydrometeor activity near the Earth’s surface is limited by a radar blind zone caused by ground clutter contamination. This study presents the development of a deeply supervised U-Net-style convolutional neural network to predict cold season reflectivity profiles within the blind zone at two Arctic locations. The network learns to predict the presence and intensity of near-surface hydrometeors by coupling latent features encoded in blind zone-aloft clouds with additional context from collocated atmospheric state variables (i.e., temperature, specific humidity, and wind speed). Results show that the U-Net predictions outperform traditional linear extrapolation methods, with low mean absolute error, a 38% higher Sørensen–Dice coefficient, and vertical reflectivity distributions 60% closer to observed values. The U-Net is also able to detect the presence of near-surface cloud with a critical success index (CSI) of 72% and cases of shallow cumuliform snowfall and virga with 18% higher CSI values compared to linear methods. An explainability analysis shows that reflectivity information throughout the scene, especially at cloud edges and at the 1.2-km blind zone threshold, along with atmospheric state variables near the tropopause, are the most significant contributors to model skill. This surface-trained generative inpainting technique has the potential to enhance current and future remote sensing precipitation missions by providing a better understanding of the nonlinear relationship between blind zone reflectivity values and the surrounding atmospheric state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating fine-resolution, regional outputs of a variable resolution global climate model

Climate models have been used to study water resources and regional hydrologic responses to climate change, but climate model outputs must be downscaled to provide relevant regional data. However, the accuracy of this regional data is limited by uncertainties across and within downscaling methods, uncertainty across global outputs, and discontinuities at downscaled boundaries. A new alternative to traditional downscaling is a variable resolution model that incorporates fine-resolution regions directly into a coarse-resolution, global climate simulation in order to capture contiguous dynamics across resolution boundaries. In this study, we used the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to generate one-eighth degree (14 km) fine-resolution outputs for the western U.S. and eastern China from 1970-2006. We focus our evaluation on precipitaiton, temperature, snow pack, solar radiation, and wind. We compare the model outputs with remote-sensing-based precipitation data, and both reanalysis and gridded weather station data for precipitation and temperature. VR-CESM generally has a cold bias in winter and a warm bias in summer in the western U.S., which compensate each other to reduce the annual bias. In eastern China, however, the sign of temperature biases are more consistent throughout the year with cold biases in the higher mountains and warm biases throughout most of the rest of the region. Precipitation biases are dependent upon reference data, and show slight overestimation in high mountain regions in both the U.S. and China with respect to gridded weather station data. Simulated snow cover in the western U.S. is reasonable compared to remote sensing data, but snow cover and snow water equivalent have larger biases when compared to reanalysis data. In eastern China there are widespread snow cover biases compared to remote sensing data. VR-CESM underestimates downward shortwave radiation to a greater degree in summer than in winter, and underestimates surface layer windspeed over mountains to a greater degree than in other areas. Comparison between VR-CESM and a coarser simulation (1-degree Beijing Climate Center model) shows reduced precipitation biases in the mountainous regions with finer resolution, indicating the value of variable-resolution modeling for reigonal studies.

Di Vittorio, Alan↗

Bulk cloud microphysical properties as seen from numerical simulation and remote sensing products: case study of a hailstorm event over the La Plata Basin

Hailstorms develop over the La Plata Basin, in south-eastern South America, more often during later winter and early austral spring, between September and October. These systems have significant socioeconomic impacts over the region. Thus, a better understanding of how atmospheric drivers modulate the formation of hailstorms is important to improve the forecast of such phenomena. In this study, we selected a hailstorm event observed over the eastern La Plata Basin during 14–15 July 2016 to evaluate the performance of the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (BRAMS) model. The ability of the model in simulating cloud microphysical properties was evaluated by comparing simulations driven by different global forcings against in situ and remote sensing observations. The model results showed good skill in capturing the basic characteristics of the thunderstorm, particularly in terms of the spatial distribution of hydrometeors. The simulated spatial distribution of hail covers locations where hail fall was reported. The BRAMS simulations suggest that, despite relatively low values of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) (700–1000 J kg -1 ), environments with strong 0–8-km bulk shear (60–70 kt, ~30.9–36.0 m s –1 ) can promote the formation of ice clouds and hail fall over the eastern La Plata Basin. To be more conclusive, however, further research is needed to understand how different combinations of CAPE and shear affect hail formation over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Southern Ocean Low Cloud and Precipitation Phase Observed During the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE)

Shallow cloud decks residing in or near the boundary layer cover a large fraction of the Southern Ocean (SO) and play a major role in determining the amount of shortwave radiation reflected back to space from this region. In this article, we examine the macrophysical characteristics and thermodynamic phase of low clouds (tops <3 km) and precipitation using ground-based ceilometer, depolarization lidar and vertically-pointing W-band radar measurements collected during the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) from April 2016 to March 2017. During MICRE, low clouds occurred ~65% of the time on average (slightly more often in austral winter than summer). About 2/3 of low clouds were cold-topped (temperatures ≤0°C). These were thicker and had higher bases on average than warm-topped clouds. 83%–88% of cold-topped low clouds were liquid phase at cloud base (depending on the season). The majority of low clouds had precipitation in the vertical range 150–250 m below cloud base, a significant fraction of which did not reach the surface. Phase characterization is limited to the period between April 2016 and November 2016. Small-particle (low-radar-reflectivity) precipitation (which dominates precipitation occurrence) was mostly liquid below-cloud, while large-particle precipitation (which dominates total accumulation) was predominantly mixed/ambiguous or ice phase. Approximately 40% of cold-topped clouds had mixed/ambiguous or ice phase precipitation below (with predominantly liquid phase cloud droplets at cloud base). Below-cloud precipitation with radar reflectivity factors below about -10 dBZ were predominantly liquid, while reflectivity factors above about 0 dBZ were predominantly ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Utilizing a Storm-Generating Hotspot to Study Convective Cloud Transitions: The CACTI Experiment

The Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign was designed to improve understanding of orographic cloud life cycles in relation to surrounding atmospheric thermodynamic, flow, and aerosol conditions. The deployment to the Sierras de Córdoba range in north-central Argentina was chosen because of very frequent cumulus congestus, deep convection initiation, and mesoscale convective organization uniquely observable from a fixed site. The C-band Scanning Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Precipitation Radar was deployed for the first time with over 50 ARM Mobile Facility atmospheric state, surface, aerosol, radiation, cloud, and precipitation instruments between October 2018 and April 2019. An intensive observing period (IOP) coincident with the RELAMPAGO field campaign was held between 1 November and 15 December during which 22 flights were performed by the ARM Gulfstream-1 aircraft. A multitude of atmospheric processes and cloud conditions were observed over the 7-month campaign, including numerous orographic cumulus and stratocumulus events; new particle formation and growth producing high aerosol concentrations; drizzle formation in fog and shallow liquid clouds; very low aerosol conditions following wet deposition in heavy rainfall; initiation of ice in congestus clouds across a range of temperatures; extreme deep convection reaching 21-km altitudes; and organization of intense, hail-containing supercells and mesoscale convective systems. These comprehensive datasets include many of the first ever collected in this region and provide new opportunities to study orographic cloud evolution and interactions with meteorological conditions, aerosols, surface conditions, and radiation in mountainous terrain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

3D Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment at kennaook Cape Grim (3D-CAPE-k) Field Campaign Report

The objective of this campaign was to complement the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s Cloud And Precipitation Experiment at kennaook (CAPE-k) in northwest Tasmania by deploying scanning, fixed pointing angle, and in situ aerosol, cloud, and precipitation remote-sensing instruments during the last six months of the experiment. These instruments provided a three-dimensional (3D) context to the second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2) vertically pointing observations collected at the kennaook Cape Grim (KCG) site and captured a portion of the life cycle of the clouds before and after the passage over the AMF2 vertical column. These 3D cloud measurements will be used in the near future to 1) investigate how the vertical profiles of aerosol and cloud properties are representative of the broader area and how these properties evolve during the portion of the cloud life cycle captured by the scanning instruments, 2) quantify how accurate the cloud fraction derived with assumptions from vertically pointing observations are compared with direct 3D cloud fraction measurements, 3) evaluate cloud fraction and liquid water path in the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator–Convective-scale (ACCESS-C) forecast model, and 4) evaluate aerosol and cloud products from the European Space Agency/Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (ESA/JAXA) Earth Cloud Aerosol Radiation Explorer (EarthCARE) mission using the scanning measurements, offering more chances of exact collocation, thereby complementing the statistical approach we are planning to employ with AMF2 observations for that same purpose.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate (PDIR-Now): A Near-Real-Time, Quasi-Global Satellite Precipitation Dataset

This study presents the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Dynamic Infrared Rain Rate (PDIR-Now) near-real-time precipitation dataset. This dataset provides hourly, quasi-global, infrared-based precipitation estimates at 0.04° × 0.04° spatial resolution with a short latency (15–60 min). It is intended to supersede the PERSIANN–Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) dataset previously produced as the near-real-time product of the PERSIANN family. We first provide a brief description of the algorithm’s fundamentals and the input data used for deriving precipitation estimates. Second, we provide an extensive evaluation of the PDIR-Now dataset over annual, monthly, daily, and subdaily scales. Last, the article presents information on the dissemination of the dataset through the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) web-based interfaces. The evaluation, conducted over the period 2017–18, demonstrates the utility of PDIR-Now and its improvement over PERSIANN-CCS at all temporal scales. Specifically, PDIR-Now improves the estimation of rain/no-rain days as demonstrated by a critical success index (CSI) of 0.53 compared to 0.47 of PERSIANN-CCS. In addition, PDIR-Now improves the estimation of seasonal and diurnal cycles of precipitation as well as regional precipitation patterns erroneously estimated by PERSIANN-CCS. Finally, an evaluation is carried out to examine the performance of PDIR-Now in capturing two extreme events, Hurricane Harvey and a cluster of summer thunderstorms that occurred over the Netherlands, where it is shown that PDIR-Now adequately represents spatial precipitation patterns as well as subdaily precipitation rates with a correlation coefficient (CORR) of 0.64 for Hurricane Harvey and 0.76 for the Netherlands thunderstorms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Parameterization of arctic hydrometeor physics using new precipitation measurement technologies: Final Report

Predictions of precipitation are highly sensitive to the accuracy of parameterized growth and sedimentation processes, especially in remote regions such as the Arctic where observations are scarce. The goal of this study was to combine measurements of meteorological conditions and retrievals from passive and active remote sensors to provide refined parameterizations of precipitation properties and processes with a particular focus on the Arctic. To accomplish the project goals, new instrumentation was used from the Oliktok Point Mobile Facility and the Utqiagvik (Barrow) North Slope of Alaska ARM site focusing in particular on Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC) data. The MASC is the first device able to automatically photograph precipitation particles in free-fall from multiple angles while simultaneously measuring their fall speed. The MASC installed at the ARM Oliktok Point and Utqiagvik facilities was used to examine the nature of Arctic precipitation, taking particular advantage of the unique suite of precipitation, meteorological, and remote sensing instrumentation that is available at the high latitude sites. Combined with radiometer data we were able to explore the relationship between precipitation particle characteristics and the clouds where the snow is created. Ground-based wind measurements provided detailed data on turbulence. Further theoretical work explored the physical mechanisms controlling precipitation size distributions, the physics determining hydrometeor fallspeed, and the existence of general solutions to the Navier-Stokes equations for falling particles. Outreach work introduced hydrometeor classification to classrooms across the United States.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Retrospective Analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging of CMIP6 Precipitation in the Nile River Basin

The Nile River basin is one of the global hotspots vulnerable to climate change impacts because of a fast-growing population and geopolitical tensions. Previous studies demonstrated that general circulation models (GCMs) frequently show disagreement in the sign of change in annual precipitation projections. Here, we first evaluate the performance of 20 GCMs from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) benchmarked against a high-spatial-resolution precipitation dataset dating back to 1983 from Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR). Next, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach is adopted to derive probability distributions of precipitation projections in the Nile basin. Retrospective analysis reveals that most GCMs exhibit considerable (up to 64% of mean annual precipitation) and spatially heterogenous bias in simulating annual precipitation. Moreover, it is shown that all GCMs underestimate interannual variability; thus, the ensemble range is underdispersive and is a poor indicator of uncertainty. The projected changes from the BMA model show that the value and sign of change vary considerably across the Nile basin. Specifically, it is found that projected changes in the two headwaters basins, namely, the Blue Nile and Upper White Nile, are 0.03% and -1.65%, respectively; both are statistically insignificant at α = 0.05. The uncertainty range estimated from the BMA model shows that the probability of a precipitation decrease is much higher in the Upper White Nile basin whereas projected change in the Blue Nile is highly uncertain both in magnitude and sign of change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

PERSIANN-CCS-CDR, a 3-hourly 0.04° global precipitation climate data record for heavy precipitation studies

Accurate long-term global precipitation estimates, especially for heavy precipitation rates, at fine spatial and temporal resolutions is vital for a wide variety of climatological studies. Most of the available operational precipitation estimation datasets provide either high spatial resolution with short-term duration estimates or lower spatial resolution with long-term duration estimates. Furthermore, previous research has stressed that most of the available satellite-based precipitation products show poor performance for capturing extreme events at high temporal resolution. Therefore, there is a need for a precipitation product that reliably detects heavy precipitation rates with fine spatiotemporal resolution and a longer period of record. Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CCS-CDR) is designed to address these limitations. This dataset provides precipitation estimates at 0.04° spatial and 3-hourly temporal resolutions from 1983 to present over the global domain of 60°S to 60°N. Evaluations of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR and PERSIANN-CDR against gauge and radar observations show the better performance of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR in representing the spatiotemporal resolution, magnitude, and spatial distribution patterns of precipitation, especially for extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate Model (PDIR) for High-Resolution, Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimation

Precipitation measurements with high spatiotemporal resolution are a vital input for hydrometeorological and water resources studies; decision-making in disaster management; and weather, climate, and hydrological forecasting. Moreover, real-time precipitation estimation with high precision is pivotal for the monitoring and managing of catastrophic hydroclimate disasters such as flash floods, which frequently transpire after extreme rainfall. While algorithms that exclusively use satellite infrared data as input are attractive owing to their rich spatiotemporal resolution and near-instantaneous availability, their sole reliance on cloud-top brightness temperature (T b ) readings causes underestimates in wet regions and overestimates in dry regions—this is especially evident over the western contiguous United States (CONUS). We introduce an algorithm, the Precipitation Estimations from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) Dynamic Infrared–Rain rate model (PDIR), which utilizes climatological data to construct a dynamic (i.e., laterally shifting) T b –rain rate relationship that has several notable advantages over other quantitative precipitation-estimation algorithms and noteworthy skill over the western CONUS. Validation of PDIR over the western CONUS shows a promising degree of skill, notably at the annual scale, where it performs well in comparison to other satellite-based products. Analysis of two extreme landfalling atmospheric rivers show that solely IR-based PDIR performs reasonably well compared to other IR- and PMW-based satellite rainfall products, marking its potential to be effective in real-time monitoring of extreme storms. This research suggests that IR-based algorithms that contain the spatiotemporal richness and near-instantaneous availability needed for rapid natural hazards response may soon contain the skill needed for hydrologic and water resource applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Remote Sensing of Electric Fields Observed Within Winter Precipitation During the 2020 Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) Field Campaign

Aircraft electric fields from NASA's Lightning Instrument Package (LIP) were coupled with other airborne and ground-based, and in situ measurements to understand electrification in winter clouds that did not produce lightning. The measurements were made during seven research flights by a NASA ER-2 during the 2020 Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) campaign. Observed total electric field magnitudes were as high as 80 V m -1 and variability in the electric field was observed along the flight path of the ER-2, indicating horizontal and/or vertical inhomogeneity in the cloud's electrical structure. X-band airborne radar data indicated 20-dBZ echo tops above 5 km in regions where electrification exceeded 10 V m -1 . In these regions, 85-GHz brightness temperatures (TB) from an airborne radiometer were lower than 265 K, with the lowest T B (~210 K) associated with ice scattering collocated with the strongest electric fields. In situ microphysical measurements from the NASA P-3 aircraft on February 7 indicated that regions near strong electric field contained supercooled water, rimed ice hydrometeors, ice water p- content as high as 1 g m -3 , liquid water content as high as 0.15 g m -3 , and supersaturation as high as 3.5%. Furthermore, these observations support the role of mixed phase microphysics in the generation of electric fields in clouds. In three case studies, ground based S-band polarimetric radar observed depolarization streaks in differential reflectivity near areas where the strongest electrification was observed. This observation reinforces the utility of depolarization streaks to identify areas of electrification prior to lightning occurrence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance of New Near-Real-Time PERSIANN Product (PDIR-Now) for Atmospheric River Events over the Russian River Basin, California

Most heavy precipitation events and extreme flooding over the U.S. Pacific coast can be linked to prevalent atmospheric river (AR) conditions. Thus, reliable quantitative precipitation estimation with a rich spatiotemporal resolution is vital for water management and early warning systems of flooding and landslides over these regions. At the same time, high-quality near-real-time measurements of AR precipitation remain challenging due to the complex topographic features of land surface and meteorological conditions of the region: specifically, orographic features occlude radar measurements while infrared-based algorithms face challenges, differentiating between both cold brightband (BB) precipitation and the warmer nonbrightband (NBB) precipitation. It should be noted that the latter precipitation is characterized by greater orographic enhancement. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a recently developed near-real-time satellite precipitation algorithm: Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate-Now (PDIR-Now). This model is primarily dependent on infrared information from geostationary satellites as input; consequently, PDIR-Now has the advantage of short data latency, 15–60-min delay between observation to precipitation product delivery. The performance of PDIR-Now is analyzed with a focus on AR-related events for cases dominated by NBB and BB precipitation over the Russian River basin. In our investigations, we utilize S-band (3-GHz) precipitation profilers with Joss/Parsivel disdrometer measurements at the Middletown and Santa Rosa stations to classify BB and NBB precipitation events. In general, our analysis shows that PDIR-Now is more skillful in retrieving precipitation rates over both BB and NBB events across the topologically complex study area as compared to PERSIANN-Cloud Classification System (CCS). Also, we discuss the performance of well-known operational near-real-time precipitation products from 2017 to 2019. Conventional categorical and volumetric categorical indices, as well as continuous statistical metrics, are used to show the differences between various high-resolution precipitation products such as Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗