Predicting PV Module Service Life
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14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
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International PV QA Task Force's Proposed Comparative Rating System for PV Modules: Preprint
The International PV Quality Assurance Task Force is developing a rating system that provides comparative information about the relative durability of PV modules. Development of accelerated stress tests that can provide such comparative information is seen as a major step toward being able to predict PV module service life. This paper will provide details of the ongoing effort to determine the format of such an overall module rating system. The latest proposal is based on using three distinct climate zones as defined in IEC 60721-2-1 for two different mounting systems. Specific stresses beyond those used in the qualification tests are being developed for each of the selected climate zones.
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Network Models of Active Degradation Mechanisms and Pathways for Service Life Prediction of Indoor and Outdoor PV Modules
ct: PV service lifetime prediction (SLP) enables accurate calculation of levelized cost of energy (LCOE), which is crucial to rationalizing PV investment and installation. However, SLP is challeging since PV reliability in the field is affected by many combined factors, including various environmental stresses and module quality. In order to map out the active degradation mechanisms and pathways that best resemble real world conditions, we introduce the framework of a study protocol and use network models fitted to data, to enable analysis and SLP of complex PV systems with multiple active degradation mechanisms. The study protocol is the experimental design, including module variants and different exposure conditions, selection of evaluation methods, time-series data acquisition and training of network models to these data. We present SLP of minimodules in the lab and PV systems in the field. For lab SLP, minimodules with 8 variants based on manufacturer, architecture, and encapsulation were prepared and aged in modified damp heat with or without full spectrum light exposure. Stepwise I-V and Suns-Voc data acquisition tracks changes in electrical properties including Rs,IV, Isc,IV, Vmp,PIV providing insights into power loss of minimodules. Network structural equation modeling (netSEM) was utilized to construct degradation pathway models that identify active degradation mechanisms and predict power loss over time. For field SLP, datastreams of Pmp values and I-V curve datastreams of two types of modules installed in three distinctly different Köppen-Geiger climate zones for 9 years were acquired. With power loss modes corresponding to uniform current loss (ΔPIsc), recombination (ΔPVoc), series resistance (ΔPRs), and current mismatch (ΔPImis) determined, the performance loss rates (PLR) were determined using PVplr. We show how to establish a study protocol framework to ensure appropriate parametric variations and valid data collection from the variants of your complex systems. Then the data-driven netSEM model fitting provides a comprehensive mapping of multiple active degradation mechanisms, and accurate service life prediction.
network model, degradation, photovoltaic, solar↗
Future-proofing photovoltaics module reliability through a unifying predictive modeling framework
Solar energy, especially photovoltaics (PV), plays a significant role in the global energy transition required for decarbonization. Technological advancements in increasing efficiencies coupled with cost reductions through economies of scale made PV a cost-competitive energy source set to exceed the milestone of 1 TW globally deployed capacity in 2022. However, ongoing downward price pressure coupled with increasing service life expectations creates tremendous challenges for reliability engineers in ensuring the safe and reliable operation of PV modules and systems over the anticipated service life. Today's reliability research efforts aim for module lifetimes of up to 50 years. Still, our current tools fall short in accurately assessing degradation mechanisms and failure modes over such extended periods. We argue that the well-established PV reliability learning cycle needs to be accelerated to keep up with the rapid technological advancements and high expectations that are put on PV and its role in the global energy transition. In this article, we explore the evolution of the PV reliability learning cycle and highlight the significance that predictive modeling capabilities will have on future PV module reliability. We propose creating a unifying modeling framework - which once established will enable the holistic assessment of PV module reliability, accelerate the PV reliability learning cycle, and bring us closer to quantitative service life predictions of PV modules.
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Quantifying Reliability - The Next Step for a Rapidly Maturing PV Industry and China's Role
PV customers wish to know how long their PV modules will last, but quantitatively predicting service life is difficult because of the large number of ways that a module can fail, the variability of the use environment, the cost of the testing, and the short product development time, especially when compared with the long desired lifetime. China should play a key role in developing international standards because China manufactures most of the world's PV modules. The presentation will describe the steps that need to be taken to create a service life prediction within the context of a defined bill of materials, process window and use environment. Worldwide standards for cost-effective approaches to service-life predictions will be beneficial to both PV customers and manufacturers since the consequences of premature module failure can be disastrous for both.
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Moving Toward Quantifying Reliability - The Next Step in a Rapidly Maturing PV Industry: Preprint
Some may say that PV modules are moving toward being a simple commodity, but most major PV customers ask: 'How can I minimize chances of a module recall?' Or, 'How can I quantify the added value of a 'premium' module?' Or, 'How can I assess the value of an old PV system that I'm thinking of purchasing?' These are all questions that PVQAT (the International PV Quality Assurance Task Force) and partner organizations are working to answer. Defining standard methods for ensuring minimal acceptable quality of PV modules, differentiating modules that provide added value in the toughest of environments, and creating a process (e.g. through IECRE [1]) that can follow a PV system from design through installation and operation are tough tasks, but having standard approaches for these will increase confidence, reduce costs, and be a critical foundation of a mature PV industry. This paper summarizes current needs for new tests, some challenges for defining those tests, and some of the key efforts toward development of international standards, emphasizing that meaningful quantification of reliability (as in defining a service life prediction) must be done in the context of a specific product with design parameters defined through a quality management system.
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Defining a Technical Basis for Confidence in PV Investments - A Pathway to Service Life Prediction (Presentation)
Four levels of accelerated test standards for PV modules are described in the context of how the community can most quickly begin using these.
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Results of I-V Curves and Visual Inspection of PV Modules Deployed at TEP Solar Test Yard (Poster)
The purpose of the PV Service Life Prediction project is to examine and report on how solar modules are holding up after being in the field for 5 or more years. This poster presents the common problems crystalline-silicon and thin-film modules exhibit, including details of modules from three manufactures that were tested January 13-16, 2014.
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Chapter 10.3: Reliability and Durability of PV Modules
Each year the world invests tens of billions of dollars or euros in PV systems with the expectation that these systems will last approximately 25 years. Although the disciplines of reliability, quality, and service life prediction have been well established for numerous products, a full understanding of these is currently challenging for PV modules because the desired service lifetimes are decades, preventing direct verification of lifetime predictions. A number of excellent reviews can be found in the literature summarizing the types of failures that are commonly observed for PV modules. This chapter discusses key failure/degradation mechanisms selected to highlight how the kinetics of failure rates can and cannot be confidently predicted. For EVA-encapsulated modules, corrosion is observed to follow delamination, which then allows water droplets to directly contact the metallization. Extended test protocols such as Qualification Plus were created to address the known problems while standards groups update standard tests through the consensus process.
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DuraMAT: Building a Consortium to Accelerate the Photovoltaic Module Reliability Learning Cycle
Durable and reliable photovoltaic (PV) modules are critical to enabling an efficient transition to sustainable energy generation. The rate at which new module designs and materials are developed and deployed currently outpaces the rate at which we can identify failure mechanisms and understand degradation rates. Increasing the service life of PV modules, and our ability to predict performance over time, requires more durable materials and designs, better durability testing, more extensive material characterization, robust modeling, and methods to cross-examine historical performance data to extract meaningful results. This is a multidisciplinary challenge that requires expertise from a broad range of fields and, therefore, benefits significantly from a collaborative approach. In this Perspective, we outline the approach taken by the Durable Module Materials Consortium (DuraMAT), present a few case studies where our approach was successful, and provide an outlook on where this approach might be applied as the PV technology landscape continues to rapidly evolve. Published by the American Physical Society 2024
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Impact of environmental variables on the degradation of photovoltaic components and perspectives for the reliability assessment methodology
Backsheet cracking has been a major issue observed in the field; however, standardized qualification tests, such as IEC61215, are inadequate to reliably identify such failures of PV modules due to the lack of the critical weathering factors applied sequentially or in combination, such as those found in the service environments. To address this problem, in this work we investigated the effects of various environmental variables on the degradation and failure behaviors of the polyamide-based backsheet in PV modules retrieved from five different locations, encompassing a variety of climates, including humid subtropical, hot-summer Mediterranean, tropical savanna climate and hot arid. The correlations between the degradation indicators and the weathering variables were further demonstrated by principle components analysis (PCA). We found strong relationships between: carbonyl formation and reflected solar radiation; hydroxyl formation and module temperature; yellowness and NO2 concentration, while no simple correlation could be found between a specific weathering factor and cracking. By introducing additional stress factors to the aged polyamide-based backsheet films with the novel 'fragmentation test', we successfully reproduced the field cracking behaviour. This study has demonstrated that different degradation modes of PV components respond differently to the environmental stresses encountered in service. Thereby, any accelerated laboratory test based on a single set condition or lacking key environmental variables would be inadequate to assess the long-term performance of PV modules and components. A new reliability-based methodology is proposed to quantitatively link laboratory testing with field results for the service life prediction of PV materials.
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Improving Solar PV Degradation Prediction Certainty: PREDICTS2 (Final Technical Report)
The rate and type of in-service PV performance degradation vary for different module designs, vintages, and operating climates. The current IEC 61215 module qualification testing standard can be used to identify design and manufacturing flaws that may lead to early life failures, but it was not intended to accurately predict degradation rates in the first 5 to 10 years of a PV plant’s lifetime, nor long-term performance, under varied operating conditions. Correlations between accelerated aging data and real-world degradation data are needed to better predict wear-out degradation in response to environmental stressors, such as elevated temperature, temperature cycling, moisture, wind load, and solar radiation. The PREDICTS2 project aged 36 pristine-condition ‘spare’ modules from a commercial PV power plant in the U.S. Southwest using the IEC 61215 and Qualification Plus (Qual Plus) testing standards. The study is unique in its ability to compare performance degradation data for fielded modules operating outdoors for 6 years in a commercial plant environmental with degradation data for modules of the same make, model and vintage that have been aged artificially in an indoor laboratory. Changes in individual module current-voltage (I-V) curve data were measured before and after the artificial aging process and compared to I-V curve data for the fielded modules. This project advanced the industry’s understanding of how environmental stressors affect performance degradation and established relationships between degradation mechanisms and changes to module electrical parameters and power loss. Improved certainty in degradation rates is expected to be the greatest source of LCOE reduction resulting from this project. Reducing the spread in the degradation rate probability distribution lowers project risk, which translates to lower project financing costs.
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Industry Facing PV Degradation Prediction Tool and Database to Enable a 50-Year Life Module
The Photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs, higher-efficiency cells, and improved module designs. These trends lead to using new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, resulting in a continually changing technological landscape. These changes can potentially introduce new, unknown degradation mechanisms and failure modes that are difficult to diagnose, analyze, test, and model. This introduces uncertainty into the expected lifetime of PV modules of 25 years. Furthermore, research efforts aim for up to 50 years of service life while keeping performance degradation at a minimum for decades of outdoor weathering - putting additional pressure on improving the accuracy of long-term durability and reliability assessments. Here there is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. Because the core of this type of analysis involves calculations that are complicated but ubiquitous for many degradation processes, an enhanced predictive modeling framework will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this work, we present an online tool that can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. A graphical user interface will aid in the understanding of the results. The prediction tool will be built modular and published as open source, enabling users to expand on the existing framework. We use an integration pipeline approach that allows us to leverage weather data from the National Solar Radiation Database to perform geospatial degradation analysis in the US and worldwide. Our repository will contain various degradation models and material parameters suitable for the reliability and durability assessment of materials and components deployed outdoors. We hope to become a repository that can be used for weathering and degradation analysis for various applications beyond the PV industry.
degradation↗
BACKFLIP Project: Determination of BACKsheet Material Properties: A Comparison of Market-Benchmark Technologies to Novel Non-Fluoro-Based Co-Extruded Backsheet Materials and Their Correlation and Impact on PV Module Degradation Rates
Quantifying degradation rate of backsheets will help procuring materials for 30+ years. Today most backsheets on the market have a laminated PET core; polyolefin materials may provide better properties for backsheets (barrier to water, mechanical properties through UV and hydrolytic environments, etc.). End-of-life regulations may require fluorine-free backsheet products in future global markets. Parametrized equation predicting the service life of backsheets, and validated by both lab and outdoor extensive testing. Technical and commercial confidence to the entire value chain: from backsheet and module manufacturers to the downstream community (IPP, banks, developers) that materials of higher quality can help reduce finance costs, therefore driving down LCOE. A fast track PV module market adaptation for novel high-quality materials, such as co-extruded polyolefin-core backsheets, by obtaining unbiased durability data.
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PV degradation curves: non‐linearities and failure modes
Abstract Photovoltaic (PV) reliability and durability have seen increased interest in recent years. Historically, and as a preliminarily reasonable approximation, linear degradation rates have been used to quantify long‐term module and system performance. The underlying assumption of linearity can be violated at the beginning of the life, as has been well documented, especially for thin‐film technology. Additionally, non‐linearities in the wear‐out phase can have significant economic impact and appear to be linked to different failure modes. In addition, associating specific degradation and failure modes with specific time series behavior will aid in duplicating these degradation modes in accelerated tests and, eventually, in service life prediction. In this paper, we discuss different degradation modes and how some of these may cause approximately linear degradation within the measurement uncertainty (e.g., modules that were mainly affected by encapsulant discoloration) while other degradation modes lead to distinctly non‐linear degradation (e.g., hot spots caused by cracked cells or solder bond failures and corrosion). The various behaviors are summarized with the goal of aiding in predictions of what may be seen in other systems. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
Jordan, Dirk C.↗
Estimating Ultraviolet Radiation From Global Horizontal Irradiance
Terrestrial ultraviolet radiation (UV) radiation is a primary factor contributing to the degradation of photovoltaic (PV) modules' efficiency and reliability over time. Therefore, accurate knowledge of terrestrial UV incident on the surface of the PV materials is essential to understand the degradation of PV modules and provide reliable assessment of their service life. As PV is deployed in various climate zones, it is crucial that terrestrial UV information is available at various locations. However, the availability of terrestrial UV data - measured or modeled - is extremely limited. On the other hand, total solar irradiance (TS) datasets are relatively abundant. In this study, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, its industry partners, and ASTM's International Subcommittee on Radiometry and Service Life Prediction are developing a simple method to estimate the clear-sky terrestrial UV irradiance (280-400 nm, 295-400 nm, 285-385 nm, or 295-385 nm) from total irradiance data (280-4000 nm). The goal is to provide reliable estimates of the UV received by samples as a function of location, orientation, tilt, and airmass, thus encompassing a variety of conditions. Here, the Simple Model of the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer of Sunshine (SMARTS) model is used to estimate the UV:TS ratio under various scenarios, and examines the influences of atmospheric constituents, such as aerosols, precipitable water vapor or ozone, and of the local surface characteristics (albedo), on the predicted UV.
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Photovoltaic Cable Jackets: A Comparison of Representative Products Using Combined-Accelerated Stress Testing [Slides]
Photovoltaic (PV) cables facilitate the distribution of electricity collected from modules to the energy grid. Durable cabling enables continuous operation of PV installations, whereas cables with a lifetime less than the modules must be replaced - reducing electricity generation and adding to the operating expense. This study primarily focusses on the aging of the key cable types using the combined-accelerated stress testing (C-AST) protocol. Representative cables for utility, building, and control/auxiliary applications were examined. Cable jacket materials examined include: polyolefin, polyethylene, polyamide, poly(vinyl chloride), chlorinated polyethylene, thermoplastic elastomer, and ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber. Specimen characterizations applied include: optical microscopy, mechanical profilometry, instrumented indentation, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). A variety of performance and durability characteristics were observed, depending on the base material, polymer formulation, and jacket color. The results from C-AST are analyzed and discussed relative to a recent industry survey on electronic balance of system components in addition to a recent study where similar cables were aged using steady state ultraviolet weathering (International Electrotechnical Commission Technical Specification 62788-7-2). Recommendations are made for the screening, industry qualification, and service life prediction of PV cable jackets.
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Photovoltaic cable jackets A comparison of representative products using combined-accelerated stress testing
Not Available
Miller, David C. (ORCID:0000000246985277)↗