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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Secure State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements for Coordinated Cyber Attack Detection in Active Distribution Systems

Coordinated cyber attacks tamper with measurement data to disrupt the situational awareness of active distribution systems. Various sensors report measurements asynchronously at different rates, which introduces challenges during state estimation. In addition, this forces cyber intruders to exert greater effort to compromise multiple communication channels and launch coordinated attacks. Therefore, multi-channel and asynchronous measurements could be harnessed to develop more secure cyber defense strategies. In this paper, a prediction-correction-based multi-rate observer is designed to exploit the value of asynchronous measurements for the detection of coordinated false data injection (FDI) attacks. First, a time-function-dependent prediction-correction strategy is proposed to adjust the sampling interval for each sensor’s measurement. Then, an observer is designed based on the trade-off between estimation error and the optimal period of the most recent sampling instant, with the convergence of estimation error with the maximum permitted sampling interval. Moreover, the conditions for exponential stability are developed using the Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional technique. Next, a coordinated FDI attack detection strategy is developed based on the dual nonlinear minimization problem. The proposed attack detection and secure state estimation strategies are tested on the IEEE 13-node system. Simulation results show that these schemes are effective in enhancing attack detection based on asynchronous measurements or compromised data.

asynchronous measurements↗
DOE OSTI2026

Particle Filter Based Inference Testing

The primary intent of PAR-FIT (Particle Filter based Inference Testing) is to provide hard inductive evidence that a machine learning model is capable and proven for an individual test input. By examining training data used to form the underlying model functional correlation, an estimate of the reliability that a model will make the correct prediction can be made. The Sequential Probability Ratio Test is used to derive a qualitative evaluation for reliability based on hypothesis testing. The PAR-FIT framework achieves this by implementing a particle filter and the sequential probability ratio test algorithms on the machine learning model training data to determine relevancy of new individual test samples to the training dataset. The kernel function evaluates the local proximity and density of training data used to derive a prediction outcome. Particles are used to probabilistically determine which training data to evaluate for proximity. For test samples that are within a close proximity to and surrounded by multiple training data points, the evaluated reliability of the prediction is high. For test samples that are anomalies not represented by the training dataset, in low density data clusters, or are far from existing data points, the evaluated reliability is low as insufficient training evidence exists to suggest the model is capable of making the correct prediction. Sequential Probability Ratio Test is further used to determine when a hypothesis on whether a signal can be rejected or accepted for use. The ratio test collects sequence information from the particle filter to test whether the signal is anomalous or normal via hypothesis testing of the underlying distributions.

Chen, Edward [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Ida↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probabilistic inference in very large universes

Our current favored cosmological theories allow for the striking and controversial possibility that the observable universe is just a small part of a much larger universe in which parameters that describe the effective, low-energy laws of physics vary from one region to another. The controversy is largely driven by the fact that such a “very large universe” is mostly observationally inaccessible to us, so the issue arises of how we can reasonably assess a theory that describes such a universe. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian method for theory assessment based on theory-generated probability distributions for our observations. We focus on the principles that define this method, leaving aside concerns about how, in practice, one would carry out the required calculations. (One important issue that we set aside is the measure problem.) We argue that cosmological theories can be tested by the standard method of Bayesian updating, but we need to use theoretical predictions for “first-person” probabilities—that is, probabilities that we should use for our observations, taking into account all relevant selection effects. These selection effects can vary from one observer to another and can vary with time, so, in principle, first-person probabilities are defined for each observer instant—an observer at a specific instant of time. Calculations of first-person probabilities should take into account everything that the observer believes about herself and her surroundings, which we refer to as her subjective state. If the universe is very large, a theory might predict that there are many observer instants in the same subjective state; we argue that first-person probabilities should be calculated using a principle of self-locating indifference (PSLI), the assumption that any real observer should make predictions for her future as if she were chosen randomly and uniformly from the theoretically predicted observer instants that share her subjective state. We believe the PSLI is intuitively very reasonable, but we also argue that, if the theory is correct, the use of this principle maximizes the expected fraction of observers who will make correct predictions. A further complication is that cosmological theories are not expected to fully predict the detailed properties of the universe, but rather will predict a set of possible universes, each with a probability. Different possible universes will generically have different numbers of observers. We argue that, in the calculation of first-person probabilities, the probability for each possible universe should be weighted by the number of observer instants in the specified subjective state that it contains. These issues have been controversial in the literature, so we also provide a rebuttal to the claim that principles like the PSLI involve a “selection fallacy”; a rebuttal to what we dub the principle of required certainty; an argument rejecting theories that predict a preponderance of Boltzmann brains; a rebuttal to a parable about humans and Jovians used by Hartle and Srednicki to argue that assumptions of typicality can lead to absurd consequences; and, finally, a discussion about how the use of “old evidence” can be fit into a Bayesian mold.

Azhar, Feraz [University of Notre Dame, IN (United↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modification of ion-temperature-gradient turbulence by impurities in stellarator plasmas

Recent nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations have shown that impurities can strongly modify the turbulent heat flux in stellarator plasmas. Here, the ion-temperature-gradient (ITG) dispersion relation in a plasma containing impurities is analytically solved in certain limits and an expression for the modification of the ITG growth rate by impurities is derived. The analytical expression is the sum of three terms corresponding to three different physical causes (impurity density gradient, impurity temperature gradient and dilution) of the change in the growth rate. The scalings predicted analytically for the modification of the growth rate are shown to be reproduced by linear gyrokinetic simulations. The conditions for reduction or increase of the ITG growth by impurities are also correctly predicted by the analytical solution to the dispersion relation. Finally, a remarkable correlation is found between the analytical expression for the modification of the growth rate and the modification of the turbulent heat flux obtained from nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations.

Calvo, Iván [Research Centre for Energy, Environme↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Electronic Structure of Zirconium and Hafnium Monochalcogenides

High-level ab initio CCSD(T) and spin–orbit icMRCI+Q calculations were used to predict potential energy curves (PECs) for the lowest-lying states of ZrO, ZrS, HfO, and HfS. The prediction of the ground state is basis set dependent at the icMRCI+Q level for ZrO and ZrS due to the small singlet–triplet splitting between the lowest 1 Σ + and 3 Δ states. CCSD(T) with a spin orbit correction predicted the 1 Σ + ground state in agreement with experiment. New all-electron basis sets were developed for Hf to improve the results over those predicted by use of effective core potentials (ECPs) that subsume the 4f electrons into the definition of the core. The use of the new DK-4f basis sets rather than ECPs became more important for HfO and HfS where there is a lack of a good core–valence separation. icMRCI+Q, CCSD(T), and DFT calculations for the spectroscopic parameters of ZrO, ZrS, HfO, and HfS were benchmarked with available experimental data. Bond dissociation energies (BDEs) of these four systems were calculated at the Feller–Peterson–Dixon (FPD) level to be 762.1 (ZrO), 543.5 (ZrS), 803.8 (HfO), and 575.1 kJ/mol (HfS), in excellent agreement with experiment. The HfS BDE was remeasured using the R3PI method, providing an updated experimental measurement of D 0 (HfS) = 5.978 ± 0.002 eV = 576.8 ± 0.2 kJ/mol. This experimental value, combined with experimental measurements of the ionization energies of Hf and HfS, gives the cationic BDE of D 0 (Hf + -S) = 5.124 ± 0.002 eV = 494.4 ± 0.2 kJ/mol.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

How the choice of exchange–correlation functional affects DFT-based simulations of the hydrated electron

Hydrated electrons are anionic species that are formed when an excess electron is introduced into liquid water. Building an understanding of how hydrated electrons behave in solution has been a long-standing effort of simulation methods, of which density functional theory (DFT) has come to the fore in recent years. The ability of DFT to model the reactive chemistry of hydrated electrons is an attractive advantage over semi-classical methodologies; however, relatively few density functional approximations (DFAs) have been used for the hydrated electron simulations presented in the literature. Here, we simulate hydrated electron systems using a series of exchange–correlation (XC) functionals spanning Jacob’s ladder. We calculate a variety of experimental and other observables of the hydrated electron and compare the XC functional dependence for each quantity. We find that the formation of a stable localized hydrated electron is not necessarily limited to hybrid XC functionals and that some hybrid functionals produce delocalized hydrated electrons or electrons that react with the surrounding water at an unphysically fast rate. Here, we further characterize how different DFAs impact the solvent structure and predicted spectroscopy of the hydrated electron, considering several methods for calculating the hydrated electron’s absorption spectrum for the best comparison between structures generated using different density functionals. None of the dozen or so DFAs that we investigated are able to correctly predict the hydrated electron’s spectroscopy, vertical detachment energy, or molar solvation volume.

Ab-initio molecular dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2026

The relative influences of hydrologic information and dams’ hydropower scheduling decisions on electricity price forecasts

Price dynamics in wholesale electricity markets are driven by supply and demand. In markets with hydroelectric dams, the timing and amount of hydropower offered can influence prices in similar ways to wind and solar power. Unlike variable renewable energy, however, the supply of hydropower in wholesale markets is a function of both water availability and operational decisions at dams. Dam operators maximize revenues in wholesale markets by aligning generation with the periods of highest expected prices, and these scheduling decisions may in turn influence prices. Here, we examine the relative importance of two types of information in predicting forward electricity prices: a) water availability at dams, in the form of short-to-medium-range hydrological forecasts; and b) hourly scheduling decisions at dams. Using softly coupled hydrologic, hydropower scheduling, and power systems models spanning the U.S. Western Interconnection, we quantify the importance of hydrologic forecast accuracy in correctly predicting wholesale electricity prices and compare this with the influence of dam operators’ own hourly scheduling decisions on realized market prices. We find that aligning hydropower generation schedules with the periods of high forecasted prices causes larger, inadvertent price forecast errors than imperfect hydrologic forecasts. This suggests that knowledge of how water is managed by dam operators within the week is more important than weekly inflow forecast errors when predicting forward electricity prices. Our findings have implications for optimal hydropower scheduling by region. Specifically, accounting for price effects is critical in markets dominated by hydropower capacity.

Electricity markets↗
DOE OSTI2025

Symmetry is the Key to the Design of Reticular Frameworks

De novo prediction of reticular framework structures is a challenging task for chemists and materials scientists. Herein, a computational workflow that predicts a list of possible reticular frameworks based on only the connectivity and symmetry of node and linker building blocks is presented. This list is ranked based on the occurrence of topologies in known structures, thus providing a manageable number of structures that can be optimized using density functional theory, and inform future experiments. This workflow is broadly applicable, correctly predicts known reticular materials, and furthermore identifies novel unknown phases for some systems.

COF↗
DOE OSTI2026

A new interatomic potential for mixed Mg-Al-Ga-In spinels

While density functional theory (DFT) has become the de facto approach for accurate simulation of materials at the atomic scale, there are many aspects of materials that are simply out of reach of DFT methods. In particular, finite temperature properties such as diffusivities, the structure and properties of grain boundaries and interfaces, and the study of defect properties in complex alloys are computationally challenging for DFT methods. Recently, a new class of spinels in which three cations order over two sublattices was discovered. In order to predict the properties of these types of structures, classical potentials are a must. Here, in this work, we derive a new classical potential for Mg-bearing spinels in which the B cations are Al, Ga, and/or In. The potential does well in describing the DFT energetics of various spinel structures as a function of chemistry and inversion. In particular, it reproduces the thermodynamically favorable MgAlGaO 4 structure while correctly predicting that neither MgAlInO 4 nor MgGaInO 4 are stable. Further, it reproduces physical trends in elastic properties as compared against experiment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kinematic flow for cosmological loop integrands

Recently, an interesting pattern was found in the differential equations satisfied by the Feynman integrals describing tree-level correlators of conformally coupled scalars in a power-law FRW cosmology [1, 2]. It was proven that simple and universal graphical rules predict the equations for arbitrary graphs as a flow in kinematic space. In this note, we show that the same rules — with one small addition — also determine the differential equations for loop integrands. We explain that both the basis of master integrals and the singularities of the differential equations can be represented by tubings of marked graphs. An important novelty in the case of loops is that some basis functions can vanish, and we present a graphical rule to identify these vanishing functions. Taking this into account, we then demonstrate that the kinematic flow correctly predicts the differential equations for all loop integrands.

Cosmological models↗
DOE OSTI2026

A buoyancy–shear–drag–scalar-based turbulence model for power-law acceleration-driven Rayleigh–Taylor, reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing

A previously developed phenomenological turbulence model for Rayleigh–Taylor, reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability-induced mixing based on a general buoyancy–shear–drag model [O. Schilling, “A buoyancy–shear–drag-based turbulence model for Rayleigh–Taylor, reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing,” Physica D 402, 132238 (2020)] is extended to include active or passive scalar mixing and power-law acceleration-driven Rayleigh–Taylor mixing. The buoyancy–shear–drag equations are coupled to a scalar variance equation that is used to define the molecular mixing parameter θ m , and when the scalar is active, modifies the Rayleigh–Taylor and Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing layer growth parameters to depend on the asymptotic value of this parameter, θ mol . Here, the scalar variance equation is closed by algebraically or differentially modeling the scalar variance dissipation rate. Nonlinear analytical solutions of the model are obtained in the total and separate bubble and spike mixing layer width formulations with the algebraic scalar variance dissipation rate for each instability, which are then used to calibrate the mechanical and scalar equation coefficients to predict specific values of physical observables and molecular mixing parameters. Surrogate mechanical and scalar turbulent fields can be constructed by multiplying a presumed self-similar spatial profile by appropriate functions of the width and its time derivative, and of the scalar obtained by solving the ordinary differential model equations. The explicit modeling and solution of turbulent transport equations are not required. The bubble and spike mixing layer width and scalar variance equations are then solved numerically for constant-acceleration Rayleigh–Taylor, impulsively reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing, confirming that the prescribed level of molecular mixing is correctly predicted and illustrating the spatiotemporal evolution of the scalar fields.

Buoyancy–drag↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of Atmosphere and Ocean Horizontal Model Resolution on Tropical Cyclone and Upper-Ocean Response Forecasts in Four Major Hurricanes

A coupled atmosphere–ocean model is necessary for tropical cyclone (TC) prediction to accurately characterize ocean feedback on atmospheric processes within the TC environment. Here, the ECMWF coupled global model is run at horizontal resolutions from 9 to 1.4 km in the atmosphere, as well as 25 and 8 km in the ocean, to identify how resolution impacts forecast accuracy of four observed major TCs in the Atlantic: Irma, Florence, Teddy, and Ida. Most of the resolutions used here are unprecedented for global models. GOES-16 and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images and best track data are used for atmospheric validation. Salinity and temperature observations from Air-Launched Autonomous Micro-Observer (ALAMO) floats are used to validate modeled upper-ocean response, including mixed layer deepening, sea surface cooling, and near-inertial waves in the wakes of TCs. Increasing atmospheric resolution leads to more realistic TC structure and stronger winds, significantly improving TC intensity forecasts and modestly improving track errors. Ocean resolution impacts the upper-ocean response but does not influence atmospheric forecasts for the fast-moving TCs considered here. Stronger mixing, sea surface cooling, and near-inertial oscillations are found for both higher atmosphere and ocean resolutions, provided the initial upper-ocean state is the same for the two ocean resolutions. Whether this agrees better with the ALAMO observations also depends on the realism of the initial upper-ocean state in the model, emphasizing the importance of ocean initialization for the accurate upper-ocean response. Overall, the model at all resolutions correctly predicts stronger mixing, surface cooling, and near-inertial oscillation amplitudes to the right of a TC center, as observed by ALAMO floats.

Atmosphere-ocean interaction↗
DOE OSTI2024

A coarse-grained model of clay colloidal aggregation and consolidation with explicit representation of the electrical double layer

The aggregation of clay minerals in liquid water exemplifies colloidal self-assembly in nature. These negatively charged aluminosilicate platelets interact through multiple mechanisms with different sensitivities to particle shape, surface charge, aqueous chemistry, and interparticle distance and exhibit complex aggregation structures. Experiments have difficulty resolving the associated colloidal assemblages at the scale of individual particles. Conversely, all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations provide detailed insight on clay colloidal interaction mechanisms, but they are limited to systems containing a few particles. We develop a new coarse-grained (CG) model capable of representing assemblages of hundreds of clay particles with accuracy approaching that of MD simulations, at a fraction of the computational cost. Our CG model is parameterized based on MD simulations of a pair of smectite clay particles in liquid water. A distinctive feature of our model is that it explicitly represents the electrical double layer (EDL), i.e., the cloud of charge-compensating cations that surrounds the clay particles. Our model captures the simultaneous importance of long-range colloidal interactions (i.e., interactions consistent with simplified analytical models, already included in extant clay CG models) and short-range interactions such as ion correlation and surface and ion hydration effects. The resulting simulations correctly predict, at low solid-water ratios, the existence of ordered arrangements of parallel particles separated by water films with a thickness up to ~10 nm and, at high solid-water ratios, the coexistence of crystalline and osmotic swelling states, in agreement with experimental observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

William A. Bardeen: A life in physics and the legacy of the chiral anomaly

William Allan Bardeen (September 15, 1941 − November 18, 2025) was an American theoretical physicist who worked at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. He is renowned for his foundational work on the chiral anomaly, the Adler-Bardeen theorem, the non-Abelian anomaly and gravitational anomalies. He was instrumental in the development of quantum chromodynamics and its applications, such as semileptonic decays and the Λ $\overline{MS}$ scheme frequently used in perturbative analysis of high energy processes involving strong interactions. Bardeen also played a major role in developing a theory of dynamical breaking of electroweak symmetry via top quark condensates, leading to one of the first composite Brout-Englert-Higgs boson models. His work on the chiral symmetry dynamics of heavy-light quark bound states correctly predicted abnormally long-lived resonances which are chiral symmetry partners of the ground state.

Hill, Christopher T. [Fermi National Accelerator L↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling High Current Pulsed Discharge in AA Battery Cathodes: The Effect of Localized Charging during Rest

During high current operation, substantial heterogeneity develops within battery cathodes, particularly when their thickness is large. Heterogeneity relaxation during subsequent rest is important for understanding battery performance under pulsed conditions. Localized charge balancing phenomena within batteries at zero net current are not well understood and merit investigation. In this work, the heterogeneity within cathodes of commercial alkaline Zn–MnO 2 batteries is measured during discharge and monitored during rest using energy dispersive X-ray diffraction (EDXRD). Significant gradients in protonation form during discharge and partially relax under rest. It is demonstrated that the proton gradient relaxation is through local redox activity at zero net current, where local (de)protonation works to redistribute charge across the cathode thickness. To support this redox-based relaxation, a fundamental kinetic study on prismatic MnO 2 cathodes is conducted to determine an appropriate model to describe both discharge and charge kinetics of MnO 2 . These kinetics are incorporated into a computational model to simulate the proton gradient formation and partial relaxation under identical discharge conditions as the operando EDXRD experiments. Model and experimental data are found to be in excellent agreement, correctly predicting localized charge balancing at rest.

Batteries↗
DOE OSTI2025

Libration of hydroxyl groups in layered aluminum (oxy)hydroxides and other material analogs: insights from inelastic neutron scattering and theory

We analyzed the hydroxyl librational signatures of five structurally related aluminum (oxy)hydroxides, using inelastic neutron scattering (INS) and plane-wave lattice dynamics simulations. A clear trend across these aluminum-containing phases illustrates the relationship between hydrogen bonding, local atomic structure, and the spectral location and profile of the librational bands. The INS spectra have been compared to previous optical spectroscopy and computational studies, highlighting the complementary nature of the INS technique. Taking into account other structurally or chemically related material analogs, we have identified a correlation between a blueshift (to higher energy) of the upper librational band edge and the geometry of the hydrogen bond interactions, mirroring (with opposite correlation) the well-known redshift in the intramolecular O–H stretching energy with increasing hydrogen bond strength. For hydroxyl groups that do not participate in hydrogen bonding effectively, the bending librations occur at lower energies and hybridize with metal–oxygen lattice modes. Standard density functional theory approximations, including dispersion corrections, struggle to correctly predict vibrational frequencies of motions dominated by H but perform well for metal–oxygen modes, allowing us to make detailed mode assignments in several cases, including a demonstration of how layer-to-layer disorder in boehmite hydrogen bond orientations is reflected in the sharp but minor low energy peaks (at ∼70–80 meV) of the INS spectrum.

Wang, Hsiu-Wen [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis and investigation into explosive sensitivity for a series of new picramide explosives

Tailoring the molecular properties that govern energetic material sensitivity is essential to improve safety and help develop new energetic materials. Despite this need, understanding the complex chemistry and physics of explosive initiation and propagation is still a challenge. Recent work by our group has reinforced the view that explosive sensitivity under sub-shock conditions is connected to the strength of the weakest covalent bond in the molecule, that is, its “trigger linkage.” These correlations have been observed with different classes of energetic molecules and indicate that “trigger linkage” bond breaking, and heat of explosion are good indicators for the sensitivity trends. Herein we report the synthesis of aliphatic energetic materials with ethane, propane and neopentane backbones. Experimental and computational studies show that the trigger linkage model, based on results from quantum molecular dynamics simulations, correctly predicts trends observed in the impact sensitivity of the molecules. However, while the model predicts the impact sensitivities of the ethane series, the neopentane series has higher impact sensitivities than predicted, which is presumably influenced by crystal packing effects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Plasma confinement state classification via FPP relevant microwave diagnostics

We present a parsimonious and robust machine learning approach for identifying plasma confinement states in fusion power plants (FPPs) where reliable identification of the low-confinement and high-confinement regimes is critical for safe and efficient operation. Unlike research-oriented devices, FPPs must operate with a severely constrained set of diagnostics. To address this challenge, we demonstrate that a minimalist model, using only electron cyclotron emission (ECE) signals, can achieve accurate and reliable state classification. ECE provides electron temperature profiles without the engineering or survivability issues of in-vessel probes, making it a primary candidate for FPP-relevant diagnostics. Our framework employs ECE as input, extracts features using radial basis functions, and applies a gradient boosting classifier, achieving a test accuracy of 96% (correct predictions). Robustness analysis and feature importance analyzes confirm the approach’s reliability. These results demonstrate that state-of-the-art performance is attainable from a restricted diagnostic set, paving the way for minimalist yet resilient plasma control architectures for FPPs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗