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Correction to "Predicting a key catalyst-performance descriptor for supported metal nanoparticles: metal chemical potential” by Zhongtian Mao and Charles T. Campbell, ACS Catal. 2021, 11, 8284–8291.
Paper information. Shuang Yu, Indrasis Chakraborty, Gemma J. Anderson, Donald D. Lucas, Yannic Lops, and Daniel Galea. UFNet: Joint U-Net and fully connected neural network to bias correct precipitation predictions from climate models. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 2024. Overview. This work develops the UFNet methodology to correct E3SM historical precipitation projection bias. The UFNet deep learning framework consists of a two-part architecture: a U-Net convolutional network to capture the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and a fully connected network to capture the distribution of higher-order statistics. The joint network, termed UFNet, can simultaneously improve the spatial structure of the modeled precipitation and capture the distribution of extreme precipitation values. Below we provide guidance for applying UFNet to correct the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM; Golaz et al. 2019) daily precipitation projection over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Getting started 1. Obtain the historical climate simulation and observation data. The E3SM historical simulation data are available through https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. The CPC unified gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation can be found through https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cpc.globalprecip.html. The ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century (ERA-20C) data are available through https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-20c. The spatial resolution of E3SM and observed datasets are both regridded to a common 1° resolution grid using conservative interpolation. The regridded E3SM, CPC and ERA-20C with 1° resolution can be found throught ./data/. 2. Train the fully connected network (DNN) Python train_dnn.py 3. Train the UFNet Python train_ufnet.py 4. Evaluation and compared with the baseline Python evaluation.py
Much research has examined the sensitivity of tropical terrestrial ecosystems to various environmental drivers. The predictability of tropical vegetation greenness based on sea surface temperatures (SSTs), however, has not been well explored. This study employed fine spatial resolution remotely-sensed Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and SST indices from tropical ocean basins to investigate the predictability of tropical vegetation greenness in response to SSTs and established empirical models with optimal parameters for hindcast predictions. Three evaluation metrics were used to assess the model performance, i.e., correlations between historical observed and predicted values, percentage of correctly predicted signs of EVI anomalies, and percentage of correct signs for extreme EVI anomalies. Our findings reveal that the pan-tropical EVI was tightly connected to the SSTs over tropical ocean basins. The strongest impacts of SSTs on EVI were identified mainly over the arid or semi-arid tropical regions. The spatially-averaged correlation between historical observed and predicted EVI time series was 0.30 with its maximum value reaching up to 0.84. Vegetated areas across South America (25.76%), Africa (33.13%), and Southeast Asia (39.94%) were diagnosed to be associated with significant SST-EVI correlations (p < 0.01). In general, statistical models correctly predicted the sign of EVI anomalies, with their predictability increasing from ~60% to nearly 100% when EVI was abnormal (anomalies exceeding one standard deviation). These results provide a basis for the prediction of changes in greenness of tropical terrestrial ecosystems at seasonal to intra-seasonal scales. Furthermore, the statistics-based observational relationships have the potential to facilitate the benchmarking of Earth System Models regarding their ability to capture the responses of tropical vegetation growth to long-term signals of oceanic forcings.
Coordinated cyber attacks tamper with measurement data to disrupt the situational awareness of active distribution systems. Various sensors report measurements asynchronously at different rates, which introduces challenges during state estimation. In addition, this forces cyber intruders to exert greater effort to compromise multiple communication channels and launch coordinated attacks. Therefore, multi-channel and asynchronous measurements could be harnessed to develop more secure cyber defense strategies. In this paper, a prediction-correction-based multi-rate observer is designed to exploit the value of asynchronous measurements for the detection of coordinated false data injection (FDI) attacks. First, a time-function-dependent prediction-correction strategy is proposed to adjust the sampling interval for each sensor’s measurement. Then, an observer is designed based on the trade-off between estimation error and the optimal period of the most recent sampling instant, with the convergence of estimation error with the maximum permitted sampling interval. Moreover, the conditions for exponential stability are developed using the Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional technique. Next, a coordinated FDI attack detection strategy is developed based on the dual nonlinear minimization problem. The proposed attack detection and secure state estimation strategies are tested on the IEEE 13-node system. Simulation results show that these schemes are effective in enhancing attack detection based on asynchronous measurements or compromised data.
Wind turbine power production deviates from the reference power curve in real-world atmospheric conditions. Correctly predicting turbine power performance requires models to be validated for a wide range of wind turbines using inflow in different locations. The Share-3 exercise is the most recent intelligence-sharing exercise of the Power Curve Working Group, which aims to advance the modeling of turbine performance. The goal of the exercise is to search for modeling methods that reduce error and uncertainty in power prediction when wind shear and turbulence digress from design conditions. Herein, we analyze data from 55 wind turbine power performance tests from nine contributing organizations with statistical tests to quantify the skills of the prediction-correction methods. We assess the accuracy and precision of four proposed trial methods against the baseline method, which uses the conventional definition of a power curve with wind speed and air density at hub height. The trial methods reduce power-production prediction errors compared to the baseline method at high wind speeds, which contribute heavily to power production; however, the trial methods fail to significantly reduce prediction uncertainty in most meteorological conditions. For the meteorological conditions when a wind turbine produces less than the power its reference power curve suggests, using power deviation matrices leads to more accurate power prediction. We also determine that for more than half of the submissions, the data set has a large influence on the effectiveness of a trial method. Overall, this work affirms the value of data-sharing efforts in advancing power curve modeling and establishes the groundwork for future collaborations.
This paper builds upon previous work to accelerate the Picard iteration (PI) method typically applied for coupled Monte Carlo-Thermal hydraulic (MC-TH) solutions. Previously, the use of the generalized transfer functions (GTFs) to predict variation in macroscopic cross sections following a perturbation in TH properties was demonstrated for a subset of simple 3D problems. In addition, the reduced-order transport prediction block relied on the first order perturbation (FOP) method, which was shown to have computational overheads. Recent work replaced the FOP block with a 1-group nodal diffusion solver to eliminate these overheads. While the use of diffusion is desirable for large-scale problems, the new solver introduces significant homogenization error. This work aims to address this issue by using the Jacobian-Free Newton Krylov (JFNK) method to generate a set of super homogenization (SPH) factors to improve the accuracy of the diffusion solution. The SPH factors will be used in conjunction with an improved cross section prediction method – the expanded transfer function (ETF) method – to produce a highly accurate flux prediction for an axial 1D boiling water reactor (BWR) pincell following a large perturbation in moderator density. The ETF-corrected diffusion (ETF-CD) block is shown to be highly accurate for the 1D test case. Future work will investigate the accuracy of the method for a realistic 3D pressurized water reactor core.
The mission of the DOE Energy Frontier Research Centers CCDM (2014-2018) and CCM (2018-2021) was to theoretically develop, computationally apply, and experimentally validate electronic structure methods for all materials, with a focus on the complex materials, especially layered and two-dimensional materials, strongly-correlated materials, and liquid water. This was achieved by over 200 published journal articles authored by about 17 senior investigators from physics and chemistry and from theory, computation, and experiment, plus their collaborators. In particular, the Centers confirmed the predictive power of the SCAN (strongly constrained and appropriately normed) density functional, which was constructed to satisfy 17 known exact constraints and several appropriate norms. Without being fitted to real bonded systems, and at a modest computational cost, SCAN correctly predicted covalent, ionic, metallic, hydrogen, and van der Waals bonds in many challenging materials. SCAN gave an improved description of defects in semiconductors, surface properties of metals, seven phases of ice, liquid water, liquid and supercooled silicon, subtle structural distortions in ferroelectrics, formation energies and structural predictions for solids, and critical pressures for structural phase transitions. Perhaps most remarkably, SCAN correctly described some strongly-correlated materials that were previously believed to be beyond the reach of density-functional approximations. SCAN is the only density functional that correctly predicts the band gap closing under chemical doping of the cuprate high-temperature superconducting materials. SCAN also predicts a landscape of competing stripe and magnetic phases in the cuprates. For some materials with some codes, SCAN has convergence problems that are greatly reduced by the CCM-developed r 2 SCAN, without loss of accuracy or rigor. SCAN and r 2 SCAN still make some self-interaction error, which is greatly reduced by the CCDM/ CCM-developed local orbital scaling correction (LOSC). These Centers further proved that the fundamental energy gaps of a solid from an orbital energy difference and from total energy differences are the same for a large class of generalized Kohn-Sham (GKS) functionals, including SCAN and standard hybrid functionals, and that symmetry breaking arises when a dynamic density fluctuation drops to zero frequency. The Centers identified new mechanisms for catalysis in layered materials with ions intercalated between the layers, investigated charge density waves both in model systems and in real layered materials, studied changes of band gap with the number of layers, and explored topological ultrathin films, bent nanoribbons, and defects.
The clustering of small heavy inertial particles subjected to Stokes drag in turbulence, which is the concern of present study, is known to be minimal at small and large Stokes number and substantial at St = $\textit{O}$(1). This nonmonotonic trend, which has been shown computationally and experimentally, is yet to be explained analytically. In this study, we obtain an analytical expression for the Lyapunov exponents that quantitatively predicts this trend. The sum of the exponents, which is the normalized rate of change of the signed volume of a small cloud of particles, is correctly predicted to be negative and positive at small and large Stokes numbers, respectively, asymptoting to $\textit{τQ}$ as $\textit{τ}$ → 0 and $τ^{–1/2}|Q|^{1/4}$ as $\textit{τ} → ∞$, where $\textit{τ}$ is the particle relaxation time and $\textit{Q(τ)}$ is the difference between the norm of the rotation- and strain-rate tensors computed along the particle trajectory, which remains negative at all $\textit{τ}$ in turbulent flows. Additionally, the trajectory crossing is predicted only in hyperbolic flows where Q < 0 for sufficiently inertial particles with a $\textit{τ}$ that scales with $|Q|^{–1/2}$. Following the onset of crossovers, a transition from clustering to dispersion is predicted correctly. We show these behaviors are not unique to three-dimensional isotropic turbulence and can be reproduced closely by a one-dimensional mono-harmonic flow, which appears as a fundamental canonical problem in the study of particle clustering. Analysis of this one-dimensional canonical flow shows that the rate of clustering, quantified as the product of the Lyapunov exponent and particle relaxation time, is bounded by –1/2, behaving with extreme nonlinearity in the hyperbolic flows and always remaining positive in the elliptic flows. Finally, this model problem also confirms that dispersion in a hyperbolic flow will occur only if particles' trajectory cross. These findings, which stem from our analysis, are corroborated by the direct numerical simulations.
Turbine inlet temperatures in advanced gas turbines could be as high as 2000 °C. To prevent ingress of this hot gas into the wheelspace between the stator and rotor disks, whose metals can only handle temperatures up to 850 °C, rim seals and sealing flows are used. This study examines the abilities of large eddy simulation (LES) based on the WALE subgrid model and Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) based on the SST model in predicting ingress in a rotor–stator configuration with vanes but no blades, a configuration with experimental data for validation. Results were obtained for an operating condition, where the ratio of the external Reynolds number to the rotational Reynolds number is 0.538. At this operating condition, both LES and RANS were found to correctly predict the coefficient of pressure, C p , located downstream of the vanes and upstream of the seal, but only LES was able to correctly predict the sealing effectiveness. This shows C p by itself is inadequate in quantifying externally induced ingress. RANS was unable to predict the sealing effectiveness because it significantly under predicted the pressure drop in the hot gas path along the axial direction, especially about the seal region. This affected the pressure difference across the seal in the radial direction, which ultimately drives ingress.
Mixing between fuel and shell materials in ICF implosions can affect implosion dynamics and even prevent ignition. We use data from a series of separated reactant experiments on the National Ignition Facility to calibrate and test the predictive power of gas–shell mix models. Two models are used to estimate fuel–shell mix: a Reynolds-averaged turbulence model and molecular diffusion. Minor uncertainties in capsule manufacture, experimental conditions, and values for mix model parameters produce significant variation in simulation results. Using input/output pairs from 1D simulations, we train Gaussian process surrogate models to predict experimental quantities of interest. The surrogates are used to construct posteriors for mix model parameters by marginalizing over uncertainties in capsule manufacture and experimental conditions. Mix models are calibrated with a subset of experimental data (neutron yields, ion temperature, and bang time) and tested using the remaining data. In general, both the diffusion and turbulence model correctly predict experimental DT and TT neutron yields. Despite having more free parameters, the turbulence model underpredicts ion temperature at high convergence ratio. Furthermore, the simpler diffusion model correctly predicts these temperatures, suggesting nonhydrodynamic gas–shell mix. The computational model consistently overpredicts DD neutron yield, indicating possible shortcomings outside of the mix model.
This paper presents the assessment of several recent enhancements for a high-order wall-modeled large-eddy simulation (WMLES) approach and demonstrates order independence with a fixed data exchange location in the wall model. The two enhancements include the use of isotropic tetrahedral elements to improve accuracy and an explicit subgrid-scale model, the Vreman model, to improve accuracy and robustness. The [Formula: see text] study focused on the high-lift Common Research Model (HL-CRM) at the angle of attack of 19.57 deg, a benchmark problem from the 4th AIAA High-Lift Prediction Workshop. Solution polynomial orders of [Formula: see text], and 5 were used in the study. The study demonstrated [Formula: see text] independence in integrated forces, pitch moment, velocity profile in the wall-normal direction, and surface flow topology. It also showed that a [Formula: see text] order of at least 3 ([Formula: see text]) was needed to correctly predict the external inviscid flow and the surface flow topology. Thereafter, [Formula: see text] simulations over several other angles of attack demonstrated that the high-order WMLES approach can correctly predict the maximum lift and flow separation regions for HL-CRM with about 40 million degrees of freedom (DOF) compared to at least 250 million DOF required by second-order methods.
The primary intent of PAR-FIT (Particle Filter based Inference Testing) is to provide hard inductive evidence that a machine learning model is capable and proven for an individual test input. By examining training data used to form the underlying model functional correlation, an estimate of the reliability that a model will make the correct prediction can be made. The Sequential Probability Ratio Test is used to derive a qualitative evaluation for reliability based on hypothesis testing. The PAR-FIT framework achieves this by implementing a particle filter and the sequential probability ratio test algorithms on the machine learning model training data to determine relevancy of new individual test samples to the training dataset. The kernel function evaluates the local proximity and density of training data used to derive a prediction outcome. Particles are used to probabilistically determine which training data to evaluate for proximity. For test samples that are within a close proximity to and surrounded by multiple training data points, the evaluated reliability of the prediction is high. For test samples that are anomalies not represented by the training dataset, in low density data clusters, or are far from existing data points, the evaluated reliability is low as insufficient training evidence exists to suggest the model is capable of making the correct prediction. Sequential Probability Ratio Test is further used to determine when a hypothesis on whether a signal can be rejected or accepted for use. The ratio test collects sequence information from the particle filter to test whether the signal is anomalous or normal via hypothesis testing of the underlying distributions.
Taking into consideration the adsorbate–adsorbent interactions, a novel activity coefficient model is derived from the non-random two-liquid theory for mixed-gas adsorption equilibria. In contrast with the conventional activity coefficient models developed for bulk liquids, the new model correctly predicts negative deviations from ideality for adsorbed phase mixtures including azeotropic behavior exhibited by selected gas-adsorbent systems. Here, the requiring a single binary interaction parameter per adsorbate–adsorbate pair, the model successfully correlates wide varieties of binary adsorption isotherm data and it should be a powerful engineering thermodynamic tool in correlating and predicting mixed-gas adsorption equilibria.
Low-temperature heat release (LTHR) in spark-ignited internal combustion engines is a critical step toward the occurrence of auto-ignition, which can lead to an undesirable phenomenon known as engine knock. As such, correct predictions of LTHR are of utmost importance to improve the understanding of knock and enable techniques aimed at controlling it. While LTHR is typically obscured by the deflagration following the spark ignition, extremely late ignition timings can lead to LTHR occurrence prior to the spark, i.e., pre-spark heat release (PSHR). In this research, PSHR in a boosted direct-injection SI engine was numerically investigated using three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A hybrid approach was used, based on the G-equation model for representing the turbulent flame front and the multi-zone well-stirred reactor model for tracking the chemical reactions within the unburnt region. A recently developed best practice was also employed which keeps the well-stirred reactor model active throughout the entire simulation. This allowed for correct predictions of the previous cycle trapped residuals which have a considerable effect on the onset of LTHR. Multi-cycle simulations were conducted using Co-Optima alkylate and E30 fuels. The predicted in-cylinder pressure and heat release rate agreed well with the experimental data and served as validation for the CFD model. Following the initial validation, the dynamics of PSHR was discussed and a series of parameters of interest were assessed. First, the effect of exhaust valve temperature was investigated, qualitatively highlighting the importance of boundary conditions uncertainty. Further analyses were carried out on the effects of fuel properties, including laminar flame speed (LFS) and heat of vaporization (HOV). The results indicate that PSHR phasing is slightly advanced with lower LFS as more trapped unburnt fuel is made available for the next cycle. A similar trend was observed with lower HOV as less intense spray cooling led to higher mixture temperatures, i.e., higher mixture reactivity. Finally, a comparison of Co-Optima alkylate and E30 fuels was made using the pressure-temperature trajectory framework. It was shown that the differences between Co-Optima alkylate and E30 in PSHR tendency are correlated with both HOV and chemical effects.
Bimetallic catalysts have demonstrated properties favorable for upgrading biofuel through catalytic hydrodeoxygenation. However, the design and optimization of such bimetallic catalysts requires the ability to construct accurate, predictive models of these systems. To generate a model that predicts the kinetic behavior of benzene adsorbed on Pt (111) and a Pt 3 Sn (111) surface alloy (Pt 3 Sn (111)), the adsorption of benzene was studied for a wide range of benzene coverages on both surfaces using density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The adsorption energy of benzene was found to correlate linearly with benzene coverage on Pt (111) and Pt 3 Sn (111); both surfaces exhibited net repulsive lateral interactions. Through an analysis of the d-band properties of the metal surface, it was determined that the coverage dependence is a consequence of the electronic interactions between benzene and the surface. The linear coverage dependence of the adsorption energy allowed us to quantify the influence of the lateral interactions on the heat of adsorption and temperature programmed desorption (TPD) spectra using a mean-field model. A comparison of our simulated TPD to experiment showed that this mean-field model adequately reproduces the desorption behavior of benzene on Pt (111) and Pt 3 Sn (111). In particular, the TPD correctly exhibits a broadening desorption peak as the initial coverage of benzene increases on Pt (111) as well as and a low temperature desorption peak on Pt 3 Sn (111). Furthermore, due to the sensitivity of the TPD peak temperature to the desorption energy, precise alignment of experimental and theoretical TPD spectra demands an accurate calculation of the adsorption energy. Therefore, an analysis of the effect of the exchange-correlation functional on TPD modeling is presented. Through this work, we show the necessity of incorporating lateral interactions into theoretical models in order to correctly predict experimental behavior.
The reliable prediction of the affinity of candidate peptides for the MHC is important for predicting their potential antigenicity and thus influences medical applications, such as decisions on their inclusion in T cell–based vaccines. In this study, we present a rapid, predictive computational approach that combines a popular, sequence-based artificial neural network method, NetMHCpan 4.0, with three-dimensional structural modeling. We find that the ensembles of bound peptide conformations generated by the programs MODELLER and Rosetta FlexPepDock are less variable in geometry for strong binders than for low-affinity peptides. In tests on 1271 peptide sequences for which the experimental dissociation constants of binding to the well-characterized murine MHC allele H-2D b are known, by applying thresholds for geometric fluctuations the structure-based approach in a standalone manner drastically improves the statistical specificity, reducing the number of false positives. Furthermore, filtering candidates generated with NetMHCpan 4.0 with the structure-based predictor led to an increase in the positive predictive value (PPV) of the peptides correctly predicted to bind very strongly (i.e., Kd < 100 nM) from 40 to 52% (p = 0.027). The combined method also significantly improved the PPV when tested on five human alleles, including some with limited data for training. Overall, an average increase of 10% in the PPV was found over the standalone sequence-based method. The combined method should be useful in the rapid design of effective T cell–based vaccines.
Over the last few years, the field of protein structure prediction has been transformed by increasingly-accurate contact prediction software. These methods are based on the detection of coevolutionary relationships between residues from multiple sequence alignments. However, despite speculation, there is little evidence of a link between contact prediction and the physico-chemical interactions which drive amino-acid coevolution. Furthermore, existing protocols predict only a fraction of all protein contacts and it is not clear why some contacts are favoured over others. Using a dataset of 863 protein domains, we assessed the physico-chemical interactions of contacts predicted by CCMpred, MetaPSICOV, and DNCON2, as examples of direct coupling analysis, meta-prediction, and deep learning. We considered correctly-predicted contacts and compared their properties against the protein contacts that were not predicted. Predicted contacts tend to form more bonds than non-predicted contacts, which suggests these contacts may be more important than contacts that were not predicted. Comparing the contacts predicted by each method, we found that metaPSICOV and DNCON2 favour accuracy whereas CCMPred detects contacts with more bonds. This suggests that the push for higher accuracy may lead to a loss of physico-chemically important contacts. These results underscore the connection between protein physico-chemistry and the coevolutionary couplings that can be derived from multiple sequence alignments. This relationship is likely to be relevant to protein structure prediction and functional analysis of protein structure and may be key to understanding their utility for different problems in structural biology. We use publicly-available databases. Our code is available for download at http://opig.stats.ox.ac.uk/.
This report provides a description and assessment of recent efforts to couple acoustic-based experimental measurements and characterization with machine learning models in order to enhance structural health monitoring capabilities for nuclear microreactors. With resilient embedded sensors in development by others supported by programs funded by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy, the work described herein builds upon ongoing efforts to improve non-destructive testing technology that relates measured acoustic signatures to component stresses and/or structural defects, using a combination of new experimental measurements and machine learning architectures. The experimental procedure remained similar to that developed for the previous year’s demonstration of damage detection by the authors, with the same damaged sample tested under similar applied stress conditions. Notably, a new mounting fixture was designed and implemented to improve measurement consistency and a more sophisticated laser Doppler vibrometer was employed to make high-fidelity vibration measurements. Two nominally identical sets of training data were collected for each experimental setup to better understand the repeatability of the experiment and to better test the generality of trained neural network models. Additionally, we obtained new high-quality 3D mode shapes of the damaged test article at various stress and excitation levels, providing greater insights into the physical response of the sample during testing. Previously, we demonstrated that a machine learning model based on a convolutional neural network can predict structural details of an artificially introduced interface (intact, rough cut, smooth cut), and the applied torque level. In this study, we have transitioned to graph-based neural network architectures to better develop and test a flexible framework that is more suitable to being transferred away from controlled benchtop experiments and into more applied settings where less-structured data inputs may be expected. In general, performance testing of a graph neural network on frequency-domain representations of the data indicates strong and consistent identification of test conditions for datasets recorded on damaged components. With goals of predicting damage location and other changing experimental conditions using limited datasets, predictive models using a graph neural network architecture correctly predicted the applied torque level with an accuracy of 85% using only a single measurement point and predicted within one torque level in 95% of test windows. Predictions of damage location had limited success due to the symmetry and minimal number of the damage scenarios presented during model training. Results were ambiguous as to whether the model could detect the location of the artificial damage, or if it was instead learning the location of a given measurement point on the part and subsequently detecting which points were closest to the location of the damage. This finding will be factored into upcoming planned work on damaged graphite components, where new experimental tests with a larger number and variety of damage scenarios are expected to provide improved validation of recent developments in monitoring methodology.