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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Surfactant-Specific AI-Driven Molecular Design: Integrating Generative Models, Predictive Modeling, and Reinforcement Learning for Tailored Surfactant Synthesis

Molecular design is a critical aspect of various scientific and industrial fields, where the properties of molecules hold significant importance. In this study, a 3-fold methodology design is presented that leverages the power of generative artificial intelligence (AI), predictive modeling, and reinforcement learning to create tailored molecules with desired properties. This model synergistically combines deep learning techniques with Self-Referencing Embedded Strings (SELFIES) molecular representation to build a generative model that generates valid molecules and a graphical neural network model that accurately forecasts molecular properties. The Variational Autoencoder (VAE) coupled with reinforcement learning helps refine molecule generation based on targeted attributes. Data from an experimental study involving surfactants were used to test the framework. A validation of the structural integrity of the molecules generated was conducted, and Tanimoto similarities were used to quantify the similarity and diversity between the original and generated molecular structures. Also, saliency maps for the generated surfactants were produced to identify the features explaining the property values. Lastly, molecular dynamics simulations were used to validate the stability of the generated molecules. The results showed that the proposed framework can effectively produce valid molecules within the set property threshold value.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of Predictive Models for Advanced Reactor Autonomous Control

Advanced reactor designs including microreactors and small modular reactors will contribute to the clean production of cheap energy, and autonomous control for advanced reactors is an appealing option for reducing cost. However, there is a lack of industry experience applying autonomous control for advanced nuclear reactors. To accelerate the development and industry acceptance of autonomous control software for nuclear reactors, we aim to demonstrate autonomous control of the Purdue University research reactor (PUR-1) using INL-developed model predictive control (MPC) methods. To prepare for this demonstration, data-driven predictive models based on process data collected from PUR-1 have been developed and integrated with MPC and used to control a physics-based model of PUR-1. A data-driven dynamics model and a gated recurrent unit (GRU) network were both trained on process data from PUR-1. The dynamics model was shown to effectively control the reactor model with MPC when provided reactivity as a control variable but failed to control the model through the control rod positions. The GRU network produced more accurate predictions than the dynamics model when evaluated on operational data, and future work will include the evaluation of the GRU network in the controller.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Hierarchically Informed Engineering Models for Predictive Modeling of Turbulent Premixed Flame Propagation in Pre- chamber Turbulent Jet Ignition

The goal of the project is to improve the predictive accuracy and efficiency of turbulent combustion sub-models for pre-chamber turbulent jet ignition (TJI). This goal is achieved through the development of a hierarchically informed engineering model for turbulent combustion in TJI. The model development starts with the highest level of model description of turbulent combustion with direct numerical simulation (DNS) from which fundamental characteristics and scaling properties of turbulent premixed flame propagation under TJI relevant conditions are obtained.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparison of model predictions with measured proton-induced production of nickel and iridium isotopes

Calculations were performed to support method development for simultaneous production of Ni and Ir isotopes. Here, the work scope included development of the physical target, irradiation configuration, and post-irradiation radiochemical separations. The assumptions of predictive models previously developed were refined based upon the precise experimental configuration selected, including Os target material and a set of stacked targets for concurrent production of Ni and Ir isotopes. Model predictions of the reaction cross sections with EMPIRE 3.21 and implied isotopic yields are compared with proton beam irradiation measurements to refine model parameters and guide future experiments.

Isotope Production↗

A machine learning approach for clinker quality prediction and nonlinear model predictive control design for a rotary cement kiln

Abstract Cement manufacturing is energy‐intensive (5Gj/t) and comprises a significant portion of the energy footprint of concrete systems. Incorporating modern monitoring, simulation and control systems will allow lower energy use, lower environmental impact, and lower costs of this widely used construction material. One of the goals of the CESMII roadmap project on the Smart Manufacturing of Cement included developing an analytical process model for clinker quality that includes the chemistry of the kiln feed and accounts for critical process variables. This predictive model will be used in nonlinear model predictive control system designed to significantly reduce process energy use while maintaining or improving product quality. In the cement manufacturing plant used in this study, the kiln feed (meal) is tested every 12 h and used to estimate the mineral composition of the cement kiln output (clinker) using the stoichiometry‐based Bogue's model and the expertise of the plant operators. During kiln operation, kiln output (clinker) is sampled and tested every 2 h to measure its chemical and mineral composition. The predicted and measured values of the clinker composition are used by the plant operators to adjust the kiln input stream and the production process characteristics to maintain stable operation and uniform product quality. However, the time delay between prediction and testing, along with inaccuracies inherent in the Bogue's model have made any process changes designed to minimize energy use problematic, especially in‐light of potential clinker quality issues that process changes often pose. A new analytical model that integrates quality information and process operation information has been developed from data collected from 2 years of production from an operating cement facility. To make the model fuel‐type‐independent, consumed heat energy was computed in the model instead of fuel type and amount. A Feedforward Network was trained and tailored from collected data. Many data‐based simulations were conducted to quantitatively evaluate the proposed model and the 5‐fold cross‐validation procedure was used to test the models. The resulting predictive model was shown to have a low root mean square error (MSE) with respect to the estimated clinker mineral composition compared to that using the industry standard “Bogue’ model”. The end goal of this work was to develop a single machine learning tool that allows the use of quality control data and process control variables to improve energy efficiency of the process in a continuous fashion. The proposed nonlinear model predictive control system (NMPC) can generate predicted kiln production characteristics based on manipulated variables in manner that accurately follows the target product quality values. Simulation results also show that the proposed model produced accurate predictions of kiln outputs that fell within the required constraints, while manipulating control variables within typical operational ranges.

Ali, Asem M.↗

Model Predictive Control for Urban Traffic Signals with Stability Guarantees

Traditional traffic signal control focuses more on the optimization aspects whereas the stability and robustness of the closed-loop system are less studied. This paper aims to establish the stability properties of traffic signal control systems through the analysis of a practical model predictive control (MPC) scheme, which models the traffic network with the conservation of vehicles based on a store-and forward model and attempts to balance the traffic densities. More precisely, this scheme guarantees the exponential stability of the closed-loop system under state and input constraints when the inflow is feasible and traffic demand can be fully accessed. Practical exponential stability is achieved in case of small uncertain traffic demand by a modification of the previous scheme. Simulation results of a small-scale traffic network validate the theoretical analysis.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗

Effect of particle size and moisture on flow performance of loblolly pine anatomical fractions: Experimental findings and model predictions

The rising energy demand has highlighted biomass as a promising next-generation energy source. However, commercializing biomass-derived energy faces challenges, particularly in handling biomass feedstock. Factors like particle size, shape, moisture content, and surface roughness significantly impact biomass flowability. This study addresses a crucial knowledge gap by examining the effects of particle size and moisture content on the flow behavior and shear properties of different anatomical fractions of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda). The bulk shear behavior was examined using a Schulze ring shear tester, while flow performance was tested through gravity-driven flow experiments in a variable wedge-shape hopper. Results were incorporated into empirical and machine learning-based flow prediction models to evaluate their accuracy and limitations. The study found that samples with higher moisture content show higher unconfined yield strength. The critical arching distance increased with particle size, e.g., from approximately 13 and 33 mm for 2- and 6-mm whole chips, respectively at a 32-degree inclination angle. Conversely, the flow rate decreased for a given hopper opening as particle size increased. For instance, at a 60-mm hopper opening and a 32-degree inclination angle, the mass flow rates for 2- and 6-mm whole chips were 7.83 and 6.42 tonne/h, respectively. The empirical model consistently overpredicted the mass flow rate for all anatomical fractions, while the machine learning model more accurately predicted the central tendency of flow rate but was insensitive to varying tissue proportions. These novel findings provide comprehensive characterization of anatomical fractions, reveal significant combined effects of particle size and moisture content on biomass flow behavior, and demonstrate a better predictive accuracy of a machine learning model, all of which are useful for optimizing material handling strategies and biomass utilization technologies in the industry.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

Advancing the central role of non-model biorepositories in predictive modeling of emerging pathogens

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the insufficiency of a reactive approach to emerging zoonotic pathogens. With spillover increasing in frequency as environments change and the human footprint continues to grow, pandemic prevention will require predictive models that can identify (i) potential zoonoses with a high likelihood of emergence and (ii) environmental or other features that may trigger a shift in host, vector, or pathogen baselines associated with emergence and/or spillover. Artificial intelligence (AI), and particularly its machine learning and deep learning branches, holds enormous potential for detecting shifts in large-scale biodiversity and disease datasets (genomic, ecological, geospatial, etc.). Such algorithms can be trained to identify subtle patterns in large volumes of data to yield insights into complex phenomena for which we have limited knowledge of the true cause(s) or predictor(s), as is the case for emerging infectious diseases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Predictive Models and Novel Accelerated Tests for the Reliability of Cell Metallization in Photovoltaic Modules (Final Report)

Studies of metallization corrosion m photovoltaics have mainly been limited to comparisons of modules placed in accelerated chambers to fielded modules [1]. Damp Heat accelerated tests and phenomenological equations [2] are used to assess metallization corrosion without understanding the effect of UV light and temperature and humidity cycles on encapsulant adhesion degradation. The roles of encapsulant in-and out-diffusions of moisture and encapsulant impurities are important. Furthermore, few photovoltaic metallization corrosion studies included the role of bias and leakage currents, which are crucial in the electrochemical reaction of metallization. Leakage currents can highly accelerate the corrosion mechanism and are important to include in the studies of corrosion. In our research plan, we will address the following gaps in the PV community's understanding of metallization corrosion: (1) metallization corrosion with bias, humidity, and impurities in the encapsulant or metallization; (2) humidity diffusion through fresh and degraded encapsulants; and (3) comparison of model predictions with outdoor field modules and SunPower's extensive data for its back-contact and front-contact fleets [2] along with NREL's store of >20 year old modules. Our goal is to build models and accelerated tests to predict long term degradation of metallization corrosion of photovoltaic modules in the field. Our studies will include metals used in c-Si solar cells (Cu, Ag, and Al) and commonly used encapsulants (EV A (ethylene vinyl acetate), TPO (thermoplastic olefin), and silicone).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quantifying model prediction sensitivity to model-form uncertainty

Computational and mathematical models are essential to understanding complex systems and phenomena. However, when developing such models, limited knowledge and/or resources necessitates the use of simplifying assumptions. It is therefore crucial to quantify the impact of such simplifying assumptions on the reliability and accuracy of resulting model predictions. This work develops a first-of-its-kind approach to quantify the impact of physics modeling assumptions on predictions. Here, we leverage the emerging field of model-form uncertainty (MFU) representations, which are parameterized modifications to modeling assumptions, in combination with grouped Sobol’ indices to quantitatively measure an assumption’s importance. Specifically, we compute the grouped Sobol’ index for the MFU representation’s parameters as a single importance measure of the assumption for which the MFU representation characterizes uncertainty. To ensure this approach is robust to the subjective choice of how to parameterize a MFU representation, we establish bounds for the difference between sensitivity results for two different MFU representations based on differences in model prediction statistics. The capabilities associated with this approach are demonstrated on three exemplar problems: an upscaled subsurface contaminant transport problem, ablation modeling for hypersonic flight, and nuclear waste repository modeling. We found that our grouped approach is able to assess the impact of modeling assumptions on predictions and offers computational advantages over classical Sobol’ index computation while providing more interpretable results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deploying a Model Predictive Traffic Signal Control Algorithm - A Field Deployment Experiment Case Study

This paper presents a field deployment experiment of a real-time traffic signal control algorithm. We implemented the model predictive control (MPC) algorithm based on the virtual phase-link (VPL) model. We selected the deployment locations and times based on an energy saving potential concept. We developed a set of experiment systems, which included sensing, processing, and actuating components, to enable field deployment. We tested the systems rigorously before the experiment days. We reported the key procedures on the experiment days, including the steps taken, the real-time control procedure, and the monitoring of the experiment. We evaluated the impact of the deployment by looking at the changes in delay and energy consumption.

deployment↗

Putting AlphaFold models to work with phenix.process_predicted_model and ISOLDE

AlphaFold has recently become an important tool in providing models for experimental structure determination by X-ray crystallography and cryo-EM. Large parts of the predicted models typically approach the accuracy of experimentally determined structures, although there are frequently local errors and errors in the relative orientations of domains. Importantly, residues in the model of a protein predicted by AlphaFold are tagged with a predicted local distance difference test score, informing users about which regions of the structure are predicted with less confidence. AlphaFold also produces a predicted aligned error matrix indicating its confidence in the relative positions of each pair of residues in the predicted model. The phenix.process_predicted_model tool downweights or removes low-confidence residues and can break a model into confidently predicted domains in preparation for molecular replacement or cryo-EM docking. These confidence metrics are further used in ISOLDE to weight torsion and atom–atom distance restraints, allowing the complete AlphaFold model to be interactively rearranged to match the docked fragments and reducing the need for the rebuilding of connecting regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Patterns, drivers, and a predictive model of dam removal cost in the United States

Given the burgeoning dam removal movement and the large number of dams approaching obsolescence in the United States, cost estimating data and tools are needed for dam removal prioritization, planning, and execution. We used the list of removed dams compiled by American Rivers to search for publicly available reported costs for dam removal projects. Total cost information could include component costs related to project planning, dam deconstruction, monitoring, and several categories of mitigation activities. We compiled reported costs from 455 unique sources for 668 dams removed in the United States from 1965 to 2020. The dam removals occurred within 571 unique projects involving 1–18 dams. When adjusted for inflation into 2020 USD, cost of these projects totaled $\$1.522$ billion, with per-dam costs ranging from $\$1$ thousand (k) to $\$268.8$ million (M). The median cost for dam removals was $\$157$k, $\$823$k, and $\$6.2$M for dams that were< 5 m, between 5–10 m, and > 10 m in height, respectively. Geographic differences in total costs showed that northern states in general, and the Pacific Northwest in particular, spent the most on dam removal. The Midwest and the Northeast spent proportionally more on removal of dams less than 5 m in height, whereas the Northwest and Southwest spent the most on larger dam removals > 10 m tall. We used stochastic gradient boosting with quantile regression to model dam removal cost against potential predictor variables including dam characteristics (dam height and material), hydrography (average annual discharge and drainage area), project complexity (inferred from construction and sediment management, mitigation, and post-removal cost drivers), and geographic region. Dam height, annual average discharge at the dam site, and project complexity were the predominant drivers of removal cost. The final model had an R 2 of 57% and when applied to a test dataset model predictions had a root mean squared error of $\$5.09$M and a mean absolute error of $\$1.45$M, indicating its potential utility to predict estimated costs of dam removal. We developed a R shiny application for estimating dam removal costs using customized model inputs for exploratory analyses and potential dam removal planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Predictive Modeling of Electrodeposition in a Single Pore Flow-Through Electrode: From Electronucleation to Coating Thickness Uniformity

The emergence of advanced manufacturing methods capable of producing porous three-dimensional structures has expanded the design space for next-generation functional components. The ability to fabricate ordered 3D foams for use in electrocatalysis reactors has increased the need for controlled deposition of catalytic metals onto porous support materials, such as carbon. However, there is a lack of clear design guidelines for electrodeposition onto 3D substrates, due to the geometric complexity and multi-scale nature of the problem. Furthermore, electro-nucleation phenomena are often overlooked in macro-scale models of current distribution during deposition. Here, a graphite flow-through electrode (FTE) is used as a model system for copper deposition within a single pore. Potential distributions and electro-nucleation phenomena are coupled in a continuum level model by incorporating nucleation size and density as a function of overpotential, determined experimentally using in situ atomic force microscopy (AFM). The model predictions are validated by measuring the coating uniformity in the pore using micro-computed X-ray tomography (μCT). A scaling analysis comprising dimensionless parameters such as the Wagner number is presented. The simplified scaling relationship framework can guide the electrodeposition process and electrode design to optimize plating of porous substrates under fluid flow conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Field Performance of Commercial Building Load Flexibility Using Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) applied to buildings is starting to see some commercial adoption by companies. However, it is hard to estimate if relative energy cost savings are enough to justify the cost of MPC implementation with few reported demonstrations. In small commercial and residential buildings, a one size-fits-all solution can help reduce implementation costs, while in very large buildings or districts the potential energy cost savings magnitude can cover more tailored solutions. This estimation becomes harder for medium to large commercial buildings, where a one-size-fits-all solution cannot be adopted and potential energy cost savings might not be sufficient to cover a tailored solution. Therefore, value propositions in addition to energy efficiency alone can make MPC technology more attractive through additional energy cost savings. One such value proposition is load shifting in response to dynamic electricity prices. On this aspect, MPC is a key technology to unlock building thermal mass for energy flexibility in response to electric grid conditions. This study shows the experimental results of MPC control of an office building in Berkeley, where different dynamic electricity price profiles were used in the MPC objective function to shift the building load and to calculate hypothetical electricity costs. Results show potential 50% cost savings with respect to the existing controller with the dynamic price scenario.

Zanetti, Ettore↗

Milestone 1.2.13: Preliminary Measurements of Radiolytic Nitric Acid Formation to Support Predictive Model Validation

Predictive computational models have been developed to support the technical basis for extended dry storage of aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) in helium-backfilled cannisters. To date, these models have been optimized on a variety of irradiation experiments designed to elucidate the radiation-induced formation of molecular hydrogen gas, a radiolysis product that is potentially problematic for the safe storage of ASNF. However, the yield of nitric acid (HNO3) has not been determined, despite conservative predictions of its formation (300–4000 ppm) in 1% residual air environments irradiated in contact with ASNF. HNO3, another problematic radiolysis product, can lead to enhanced corrosion and potentially compromise storage canister integrity. Thus, to support the validation of predictive computer models, we report the measurement and quantification of HNO3 from the gamma irradiation of aluminum alloy coupons in humid air.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗