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At least 19 records

Compound Mesoscale Convective Systems and Low‐Pressure Systems in Tropical Monsoon Regions: Assessing Their Meteorology and Precipitation

Mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and low-pressure systems (LPS) are both strongly associated with precipitation across the regions where they occur, particularly within global monsoon systems; however, their co-occurrence and its relationship to precipitation have not been systematically examined. Here, we use LPS and MCS trackers to detect compound MCS and LPS events in five monsoon regions and assess the association of this co-occurrence with anomalies of winds, precipitation, and other atmospheric variables. Additionally, we investigate the spatial distribution of precipitating MCS and LPS events. Our results show that most (∼60%) MCS and LPS co-occurrences are located in the lower latitudes, where they contribute up to 40% of annual precipitation. We find that compound events generally produce more extreme precipitation than MCS-only or LPS-only events. Furthermore, our assessment of the synoptic and mesoscale composites reveals that the underlying dynamics of compound events exhibit anomalously positive convective available potential energy and an anomalously low-pressure within the location of the event. In terms of the synoptic environment of the features, the compound MCS and LPS events are associated with inverted troughs in three out of five monsoon locations assessed.

Environmental sciences↗

Automated Operational Forecasting of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems

Monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) are the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, often producing extreme precipitation and hydrological disasters in a region inhabited by nearly two billion people. Despite the importance of these storms, no operational system has automatically identified and tracked LPS in real time in numerical weather prediction model output; many commonly used vortex-tracking algorithms are ill suited for monsoon LPS because of the weak winds and cold cores of these systems. Here, we describe a new system that uses optimized algorithms to identify monsoon LPS in short- to medium-range forecasts from the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and a version of the deterministic Global Forecast System (GFS) adapted and used operationally by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). We also assess the historical performance of these models in forecasting South Asian monsoon LPS, comparing this with the performance of the Integrated Forecasting System of the ECMWF. We assess the accuracy of model predictions of LPS genesis, position, intensity, and precipitation rates for forecast lead times of 1–5 days, yielding quantitative information on model biases to guide operational forecasters and disaster managers. The system we introduce here could be extended to other low-latitude regions affected by dynamically weak, heavily precipitating atmospheric vortices that are often not included in tropical cyclone inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The System for Classification of Low-Pressure Systems (SyCLoPS): An All-In-One Objective Framework for Large-Scale Data Sets

We propose the first unified objective framework (SyCLoPS) for detecting and classifying all types of low-pressure systems (LPSs) in a given data set. We use the state-of-the-art automated feature tracking software TempestExtremes (TE) to detect and track LPS features globally in ERA5 and compute 16 parameters from commonly found atmospheric variables for classification. A Python classifier is implemented to classify all LPSs at once. The framework assigns 16 different labels (classes) to each LPS data point and designates four different types of high-impact LPS tracks, including tracks of tropical cyclone (TC), monsoonal system, subtropical storm and polar low. The classification process involves disentangling high-altitude and drier LPSs, differentiating tropical and non-tropical LPSs using novel criteria, and optimizing for the detection of the four types of high-impact LPS. A comparison of our labels with those in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) revealed an overall accuracy of 95% in distinguishing between tropical systems, extratropical cyclones, and disturbances. SyCLoPS produces a better TC detection skill compared to the previous algorithms, highlighted by an approximately 6% reduction in the false alarm rate compared to the previous TE algorithm. The vertical cross section composite of the four types of high-impact LPS we detect each shows distinct structural characteristics. Finally, we demonstrate that SyCLoPS is valuable for investigating various aspects of LPSs in climate data, such as the evolution of a single LPS track, patterns of LPS frequencies, and precipitation or wind influence associated with a particular LPS class.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating Ensemble Predictions of South Asian Monsoon Low Pressure System Genesis

Abstract Synoptic-scale vortices known as monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) frequently produce intense precipitation and hydrological disasters in South Asia, so accurately forecasting LPS genesis is crucial for improving disaster preparedness and response. However, the accuracy of LPS genesis forecasts by numerical weather prediction models has remained unknown. Here, we evaluate the performance of two global ensemble models—the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Ensemble Prediction System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)—in predicting LPS genesis during the years 2021–22. The GEFS successfully predicted about half the observed LPS genesis events 1–2 days in advance; the ECMWF model captured an additional 10% of observed genesis events. Both models had a false alarm ratio (FAR) of around 50% for 1–2-day lead times. In both ensembles, the control run typically exhibited a higher probability of detection (POD) of observed events and a lower FAR compared to the perturbed ensemble members. However, a consensus forecast, in which genesis is predicted when at least 20% of ensemble members forecast LPS formation, had POD values surpassing those of the control run for all lead times. Moreover, probabilistic predictions of genesis over the Bay of Bengal, where most LPSs form, were skillful, with the fraction of ensemble members predicting LPS formation over a 5-day lead time approximating the observed frequency of genesis, without any adjustment or bias correction.

Suhas, D. L.↗

Historical and future trends in South Asian monsoon low pressure systems in a high-resolution model ensemble

Historical trends in monsoon low pressure systems (LPS), the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, have been difficult to assess due to changes in the observing network. Future projections have also remained uncertain because prior studies concluded that many coarse-resolution climate models do not accurately simulate LPS. Here, we examine changes in South Asian monsoon LPS simulated by an ensemble of global models, including some with high spatial resolution, that we show skillfully represent LPS. In the ensemble mean, the number of strong LPS (monsoon depressions) decreased over the last 65 years (1950–2014) by about 15% while no trend was detected for weaker LPS (monsoon lows). The reduction in depression counts then moderated, yielding no trend in the periods 1980–2050 or 2015–2050. The ensemble mean projects a shift in genesis from ocean to land and an increase in LPS precipitation of at least 7% K −1 , which together contribute to a projected increase in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation over central India.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of monsoon low pressure systems on South Asian disasters and implications for disaster prediction

Transient atmospheric vortices called monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) generate a large fraction of total rainfall over South Asia and often produce extreme precipitation. Here, we assess the influence of these storms on the occurrence of disasters, using information from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) that we geocoded and then associated with LPS tracks. We show that more than half of hydro-meteorological disasters over South Asia during summer are associated with these LPS events. Weaker LPS (which are called monsoon lows) occur more frequently than stronger LPS (called monsoon depressions), but the stronger LPS produce a larger number of disasters. Furthermore, although many prior studies have shown that the peak rainfall in LPS falls southwest of the vortex centre, the disasters are concentrated on the northern edge of the LPS tracks, along the Himalayas and upper basins of the Ganga and Brahmaputra rivers. Observations show a sharp peak in rainfall on the day of disasters, confirming the physical link between LPS and these hydro-meteorological disasters. A similar peak in rainfall is found in weather forecasts made up to five days before the disaster, suggesting that short-term precipitation forecasts can be useful in disaster preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-Pressure Rail System Design with Variable Pressure Control Strategy

This paper presents the design and the control method of a Multiple Pressure Rail system (MPR) with a variable pressure control logic that allows minimization of throttling loss, therefore, increasing the overall fluid power actuation efficiency. An MPR system allows controlling hydraulic actuators with a pressure control logic, as opposed to traditional flow control logics which are well established in mobile applications. A proper setting of the number of pressure rails and the pressure level in each rail permits optimizing the system efficiency of an MPR solution. MPR systems have been recently proposed with different purposes, but seldom adopt variable pressure control strategies to manage the pressure variations in the rails. Moreover, the related past work attempts to maximize the energy recovery during overrunning load conditions. This paper, instead, addresses the case of an MPR system that handles a multitude of hydraulic functions without significant overrunning loads, as it occurs in many mobile applications such as in agriculture. The paper first presents the design alternatives considered for the MPR system, including the supply, the control valves, and the controller. Second, a dedicated test rig is developed to support experimental activities and validations of a lumped parameter model developed within this research to develop the MPR control strategy. The results describe the operating features of the proposed MPR solution. By considering the case of a traditional LS system, the paper results also show how system efficiency can be highly improved, with energy savings in the order of 49%

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

High-efficiency catalytic reduction of residual oxygen for purification of carbon dioxide streams from high-pressure oxy-combustion systems

Pressurized oxy-combustion is a promising technology for carbon capture, utilization, and storage. For the captured CO 2 to be used for enhanced oil recovery or stored in geological formations, flue gas impurities, including residual O 2 in the CO 2 stream, must be purified to meet the purity specifications. A catalytic approach to reducing residual O 2 with CH 4 was investigated in this study. Five CoMn- and Cu-based catalysts were synthesized or acquired, and a reverse-flow fixed-bed reactor was used to assess their performance for O 2 removal from a simulated oxy-combustion flue gas at 15 bar. The impacts of the operating parameters on O 2 removal, such as temperature, gas hourly space velocity, O 2 /CH 4 ratio, and gas pressure, were investigated. Among the tested catalysts, the two CoMn catalysts were superior in both activity and selectivity, with the reaction lighting off at about 350 °C and achieving 99% O 2 removal at about 500 °C. Finally, the kinetics of the catalytic reaction is discussed, and the Mars–van Krevelen redox mechanism is deemed valid for describing the reaction pathway for the top-performing CoMn catalysts. The catalytic reaction was determined to be first order in CH 4 and zero order in O 2 under the test conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Large eddy simulation of particle dispersion analysis in a pressurized reactive fluid–particle system

Pressurized oxy-combustion (POC) is a promising candidate to reduce carbon emissions in power generation. Designing an effective burner plays a vital role in developing new combustion technologies. Because of high pressure, the volumetric fraction of particles in a pressurized oxy-combustor could be higher than that in the conventional combustor, consequently, the particle dynamics in the pressurized vessel need to be evaluated accordingly. Specifically, the present computational work analyzes the pattern of the particle dispersion by extracting the particle mass flow rate and the particle size distribution in the pressurized combustor. A large eddy simulation (LES) with the environment pressure 15-bar and 100 kWth thermal input of fuel particle has been performed. The particle mass flow rates sampled in several cross-section planes strongly fluctuate, indicating the impacts of the flame as well as the gas-phase flow on the particle movement. Animations of the particle-gas flow show that the flow recirculation plays a major role in producing the pulsing phenomenon of the particle mass flow rate.

Li, Lei↗

Numerical case study of the aerosol–cloud interactions in warm boundary layer clouds over the eastern North Atlantic with an interactive chemistry module

The presence of warm boundary layer stratiform clouds over the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) region is commonly influenced by the Azores High, especially during the summer season. To investigate comprehensive aerosol–cloud interactions, this study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem), incorporating aerosol chemical components that are relevant to the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and accounting for aerosol spatiotemporal variation. This study focuses on aerosol indirect effects, particularly the long-range transport of aerosols, in the ENA region under three different weather regimes: a ridge with a surface high-pressure system, a post-trough with a surface high-pressure system, and a weak trough. The WRF-Chem simulations conducted at a near-large-eddy scale offer valuable insights into the model's performance, especially in terms of its ability to use high spatial resolution to capture mesoscale cloud features across various weather regimes. Our result shows that introducing 5 times more aerosols to either non-precipitating or precipitating clouds significantly increases ambient CCN numbers, resulting in, to varying degrees, higher liquid water path (LWP) values. The substantial aerosol–cloud interaction especially occurs in the precipitating clouds and demonstrates the susceptibility of the LWP to changes in CCN under different regimes. Conversely, thin, non-rain clouds at the edges of a cloud system are prone to evaporation, exhibiting an aerosol drying effect. The aerosols released during this process transition back to the accumulation mode, facilitating future activation. This dynamic behavior is not adequately represented in prescribed-aerosol simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Design Considerations for Controlling Silicon Nanoparticle Nucleation and Growth in a Nonthermal Plasma

Controlling the nucleation and growth of nanoparticles in low temperature plasma systems is imperative for controlling nanoparticle size distributions; and for some applications such as deposition and etching in microelectronic processing, preventing particle contamination. In this work, silicon nanoparticle (NP) production from silane is used as a model system to investigate the nucleation process. Although the mechanisms responsible for silicon NP nucleation and growth have been studied, it is unclear how controllable system parameters (e.g., pressure, system geometry, and gas composition) can be used to inhibit or promote NP formation. For example, the transport of reactive silane species is expected to significantly affect the feed fraction of silane required to nucleate silicon NP (the nucleation onset fraction) due to losses at the reactor walls. In this work, NP mass density was determined as a function of system pressure, gas composition, and reactor diameter for a tubular flow-through radiofrequency (RF) plasma using Ar/H2/He/SiH4 gas mixtures. A quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) impactor was developed to measure the total aerosol mass density downstream of the plasma and thereby identify the nucleation onset and its dependence on process parameters. Finally, a reaction mechanism was developed and incorporated into a global plasma chemistry model to better understand the nucleation onset and NP growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Implement-Only Implementation of a Multi Pressure Rail System to an Agricultural Planter

Tightening emissions regulations and rising fuel costs have driven a desire across many industries for more efficient actuation systems. This is particularly true of the agricultural sector. An extremely common arrangement in this sector is the tractor and implement pairing, in which actuators on an implement are powered by a hydraulic supply system on the towing tractor. This arrangement complicates the development of energy efficient hydraulic systems, as many new system designs require modification of both machines to reap efficiency benefits. Past work by the authors’ team has demonstrated great potentials for Multi-Pressure-Rail (MPR) technology involving both the tractor and implement subsystems. However, applicability of this MPR technology in a more realistic scenario where only one vehicle is equipped with such technology was not addressed. This work proposes an implementation of the MPR technology to an agricultural planter that allows significant savings, while only modifying the implement machine. This is done by manipulating the load sense network of a stock tractor to set system pressures to those required by the MPR system. This greatly reduces the barrier to implementation of MPR technology in agriculture. The work begins by outlining the reference machine for the system, then reviews the MPR system working principle. After this, the proposed expansion to the MPR concept is laid out, and applied to the reference system. Finally, experimental validation is carried out, demonstrating on average 37% reduction in system power consumption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An Arduino based automatic pressure evaluation system to quantify growth of non‐model anaerobes in culture

Abstract Measuring the growth rate of non‐model anaerobic microbes typically requires the use of time‐consuming and often destructive manual measurements. Here, an Arduino based automatic pressure evaluation system (A‐APES) was developed to automatically measure the rate of fermentation gas production as a proxy for microbial growth in anaerobic systems. The A‐APES system measures accumulated gas pressure in sealed cultures accurately at high‐resolution, while venting the system at programmed intervals to prevent over pressurization. The utility of A‐APES is demonstrated in this study by quantifying the growth rate and phases of a biomass‐degrading anaerobic gut fungus, which cannot be otherwise measured via conventional techniques due to its association with particulate substrates. Given the utility of the A‐APES approach, we provide a complete construction guide to fabricate the device, which is three times less expensive compared to existing commercial alternatives.

Wilken, St. Elmo↗

Characterization of oceanic post-cold frontal clouds and their model representation. Final report

Low-level clouds are ubiquitous over the oceans, and their impact on the Earth’ radiative budget is important. However, general circulation models (GCMs) that are used to represent our climate and its evolution still experience problems to represent their correct amount and radiative impact. In the extratropical latitudes (~30-60 N/S), cloud properties are strongly modulated by the occurrence of anti-cyclones (high pressure systems) and cyclones (low pressure systems). While deep clouds dominate in cyclones near the center and along the cold and warm fronts, low-level clouds populate the colder regions of the cyclones, and more specifically the region in the wake of the cold fronts, the post-cold frontal region (PCF). The GCMs mentioned above were found to underestimate the amount of these PCF clouds, and this caused errors in their representation of the amount of solar radiation at the surface of the southern hemisphere oceans, causing an excess in absorption and errors in long-term predictions. To better understand which processes are ill-represented in the GCMs to cause such issues, we used ground-based observations from the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) ARM site and a high resolution regional model (called WRF) to examine the properties of PCF clouds. With the WRF model, we simulated the passage of a cold front at the ENA site using theoretically distinct representations of convection and the physics of the boundary layer. While these physical representations had little impact on the timing, structure and circulation of the cold front, we found a high sensitivity to how the large scale information was fed into the model. Errors rapidly developed if the incoming flow information was injected too far from the site, but 1000 km was found to be an optimal distance between the outer boundary and the ENA site for a realistic cold front passage. With this model, we then conducted a series of experiment where convection and boundary layer schemes were changed, and revealed that 1) the clouds were more sensitive to the convection than boundary layer schemes and 2) the interaction between the two has a large impact. Furthermore, changing the representation of the physics in the model had greater impacts on PCF clouds than changing the initial conditions. As large-scale models increase their spatial resolution, convection will eventually be resolved but it remains that their representation of the physics of the boundary layer will matter for the correct representation of shallow (low-level) clouds. Observations were used to find which large-scale information had a clear relationship with PCF cloud and precipitation properties, in view of helping with GCM parameterizations and evaluation. Both lower troposphere stability and surface forcing were found to be important for PCF clouds that experience more vigorous dynamics than their tropical or subtropical counterparts. For cloud base and top heights, a simple measure of the change in potential temperature between the surface and the 800 hPa was found to be a good predictor. This relationship was found to hold as well when using data from campaigns recently conducted in the southern ocean south of Tasmania. A recent GCM was found to succeed in representing similar relations. For cloud depth, water content, and different characteristics of precipitation both the temperature contrast between the surface and near-air and the near-surface wind speed had a strong relationship. To summarize, through observational constraints and regional model experiments, the project has provided guidance to evaluate GCMs and tools to improve their representation of low-level clouds in the extratropics. It has also highlighted differences in behavior between these clouds and those typically found in the subtropics, thus opening new avenues of research for shallow clouds in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Study of Stratus-Lowering Marine-Fog Events Observed During C-FOG

Two stratus lowering marine fog events observed on 28 September and 04 October 2018 during the Coastal Fog (C-Fog) field campaign that took place offshore of Eastern Canada during 1 September to 6 October 2018 are described. In-situ, profiling and remote sensing observations were made at selected land sites in eastern Newfoundland (NL) and Nova Scotia (NS) as well as aboard the research vessel (R/V) Hugh R. Sharp that cruised in adjoining coastal waters. Synoptic scale analysis showed that both fog episodes were an outcome of the interaction between synoptic-scale surface level low-pressure systems and a contiguous high-pressure system. At the same time, back trajectories revealed that the bulk of the fog layer is formed due to differential advection. Here, the diameter of the fog droplets at the surface gradually decreased from the centre of the fog layer to its leading/trailing edges. The bimodal fog droplet diameter distribution with peaks at 5-10 µm and 20-25 µm provided clues on droplet collision and coalescence processes. The observed difference between microphysical variables and droplet distribution between the two fog events and within same fog layer may have been governed by atmospheric boundary layer conditions (e.g., humidity conditions and turbulence) prevailed in the fog layer. Overall, it is concluded that the life cycle of observed stratus-lowering coastal-fog episodes is dependent on synoptic conditions as well as atmospheric boundary layer characteristics such as stability, cloud top cooling and entrainment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗