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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Future Industrial Demand: Large, Elastic, and Concentrated [Guest Editorial]

Here, the future industrial demand on the grid is expected to be large, price sensitive, and concentrated. Grid industrial demand increasingly encompasses a new customer type defined as a large flexible load (LFL). This LFL type defines customers with consumption that responds quickly to price or other incentives without interrupting their core business process, such cryptocurrency mining. This customer type can often ramp up and down quickly, which across an entire industry can mean gigawatts of power within a few minutes. In addition to these price-sensitive loads, significant growth is also anticipated in sectors like manufacturing, data centers, and electrification of transportation and buildings.

Mukherjee, Srijib [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2026

How does drought affect residential water demand and price elasticity?

Urban water scarcity is an important social and economic concern, particularly as the intensity, duration, and frequency of droughts is increasing in many regions. We consider whether drought induces changes to water demand and the price elasticity of demand for water that may last beyond a drought’s official end date. If drought shocks prompt long-term changes in water demand behavior, and these changes occur at broad geographic scale, they could have important implications for modeling adaptive responses to water scarcity. We assemble a novel dataset on residential water demand and pricing in the western United States to test empirically for effects of drought on water demand and price elasticity. We perform our analysis with aggregate quantity, price, and drought data, accounting for endogenous prices under increasing-block water tariffs and using both average and marginal water fees in estimating water demand functions. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that households may become less price-sensitive after exposure to drought. However, we find no systematic evidence of long-run, drought-related reductions in water demand, itself.

demand hardening↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simplified, Infiltration-free Ceramic Matrix Composite Manufacturing

Manufacturing of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) with carbon fiber and carbon matrix includes a time- and labor-intensive ceramic infiltration step that is responsible for more than half of the total manufacturing cost. To make CMCs cost-competitive in price-sensitive markets, like concentrated solar power, it is essential to develop a CMC manufacturing process that skips the ceramic infiltration process. In this work, we will show how a high-char-yield preceramic resin can eliminate the infiltration step while maintaining material density and evaluate the technoeconomic impact of our CMC manufacturing process. Here, we monitor both morphology and porosity to determine the quality of CMCs made with different preceramic resins and evaluate the impact of polymer infiltration and pyrolyzing cycles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1977

Technical and economic evaluation of advanced air cargo system concepts

The paper reviews NASA air cargo market studies, reports on NASA and NASA-sponsored studies of advanced freighter concepts, and identifies the opportunities for the application of advanced technology. The air cargo market is studied to evaluate the timing for, and the potential market response to, advanced technology aircraft. The degree of elasticity in future air freight markets is also being investigated, since the demand for a new aircraft is most favorable in a price-sensitive environment. Aircraft design studies are considered with attention to mission and design requirements, incorporation of advanced technologies in transport aircraft, new cargo aircraft concepts, advanced freighter evaluation, and civil-military design commonality.

Whitehead, A. H., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Discrete Wavelength-Locked External Cavity Laser

A prototype improved external cavity laser (ECL) was demonstrated in the second phase of a continuing effort to develop wavelength-agile lasers for fiber-optic communications and trace-gas-sensing applications. This laser is designed to offer next-generation performance for incorporation into fiber-optic networks. By eliminating several optical components and simplifying others used in prior designs, the design of this laser reduces costs, making lasers of this type very competitive in a price-sensitive market. Diode lasers have become enabling devices for fiber optic networks because of their cost, compactness, and spectral properties. ECLs built around diode laser gain elements further enhance capabilities by virtue of their excellent spectral properties with significantly increased (relative to prior lasers) wavelength tuning ranges. It is essential to exploit the increased spectral coverage of ECLs while simultaneously insuring that they operate only at precisely defined communication channels (wavelengths). Heretofore, this requirement has typically been satisfied through incorporation of add-in optical components that lock the ECL output wavelengths to these specific channels. Such add-in components contribute substantially to the costs of ECL lasers to be used as sources for optical communication networks. Furthermore, the optical alignment of these components, needed to attain the required wavelength precision, is a non-trivial task and can contribute substantially to production costs. The design of the present improved ECL differs significantly from the designs of prior ECLs. The present design relies on inherent features of components already included within an ECL, with slight modifications so that these components perform their normal functions while simultaneously effecting locking to the required discrete wavelengths. Hence, add-in optical components and the associated cost of alignment can be eliminated. The figure shows the locking feedback signal, and the frequency locking achieved by use of this signal, as a mirror is tilted through a range of angles to tune the ECL through 48 channels. The data for the frequency plot were obtained, simultaneously with the data for the locking-signal plot, by using a scanning Michelson interferometer to precisely determine the ECL wavelength (and, hence, frequency). Given the ability of the Michelson interferometer to obtain highly precise readings, the frequency plot can be taken to be a reliable indication of single-mode operation. The discontinuities in the frequency plot signify the switching of the ECL between channels; in other words, they indicate tuning with locking to discrete frequencies. The peaks of the feedbacklocking signal correspond to the centers, or near centers, of the mirror angle scan through the corresponding channels. Thus, it is clear that when the feedback-locking signal is at a local maximum, the ECL is operating at single frequency at or near the middle frequency of the selected channel. This is all that is required for precisely locking the ECL output wavelength. The locking is achieved without additional external optical components.

Pilgrim, Jeffrey S.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Sensitivity analysis of add-on price estimate for select silicon wafering technologies

The cost of producing wafers from silicon ingots is a major component of the add-on price of silicon sheet. Economic analyses of the add-on price estimates and their sensitivity internal-diameter (ID) sawing, multiblade slurry (MBS) sawing and fixed-abrasive slicing technique (FAST) are presented. Interim price estimation guidelines (IPEG) are used for estimating a process add-on price. Sensitivity analysis of price is performed with respect to cost parameters such as equipment, space, direct labor, materials (blade life) and utilities, and the production parameters such as slicing rate, slices per centimeter and process yield, using a computer program specifically developed to do sensitivity analysis with IPEG. The results aid in identifying the important cost parameters and assist in deciding the direction of technology development efforts.

Mokashi, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Assessment of industrial applications for fuel cell cogeneration systems

The fuel cell energy systems are designed with and without a utility connection for emergency back-up power. Sale of electricity to the utility during periods of low plant demand is not considered. For each of the three industrial applications, conceptual designs were also developed for conventional utility systems relying on purchased electric power and fossil-fired boilers for steam/hot water. The capital investment for each energy system is estimated. Annual operating costs are also determined for each system. These cost estimates are converted to levelized annual costs by applying appropriate economic factors. The breakeven electricity price that would make fuel cell systems competitive with the conventional systems is plotted as a function of naphtha price. The sensitivity of the breakeven point to capital investment and coal price is also evaluated.

Stickles, R. P.↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability

This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.

petrochemicals↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamically Learning Incentives for Load Control

As electrical generation becomes more distributed and volatile, and loads become more uncertain, controllability of distributed energy resources (DERs), regardless of their ownership status, will be necessary for grid reliability. Grid operators lack direct control over end-users' grid interactions, such as energy usage, but incentives can influence behavior -- for example, an end-user that receives a grid-driven incentive may adjust their consumption or expose relevant control variables in response. A key challenge in studying such incentives is the lack of data about human behavior, which usually motivates strong assumptions, such as distributional assumptions on compliance or rational utility-maximization. In this paper, we propose a general incentive mechanism in the form of a constrained optimization problem -- our approach is distinguished from prior work by modeling human behavior (e.g., reactions to an incentive) as an arbitrary unknown function. We propose feedback-based optimization algorithms to solve this problem that each leverage different amounts of information and/or measurements. We show that each converges to an asymptotically stable incentive with (near)-optimality guarantees given mild assumptions on the problem. Finally, we evaluate our proposed techniques in voltage regulation simulations on standard test beds. We test a variety of settings, including those that break assumptions required for theoretical convergence (e.g., convexity, smoothness) to capture realistic settings. In this evaluation, our proposed algorithms are able to find near-optimal incentives even when the reaction to an incentive is modeled by a theoretically difficult (yet realistic) function.

demand response↗
NASA NTRS2007

Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

Hendricks, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

Hendricks, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Sensitivity analysis of the add-on price estimate for the silicon web growth process

The web growth process, a silicon-sheet technology option, developed for the flat plate solar array (FSA) project, was examined. Base case data for the technical and cost parameters for the technical and commercial readiness phase of the FSA project are projected. The process add on price, using the base case data for cost parameters such as equipment, space, direct labor, materials and utilities, and the production parameters such as growth rate and run length, using a computer program developed specifically to do the sensitivity analysis with improved price estimation are analyzed. Silicon price, sheet thickness and cell efficiency are also discussed.

Mokashi, A. R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Agent-Based Simulation of Price-Demand Dynamics in Multi-Service Charging Station

As the adoption of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles grows, understanding how dynamic pricing strategies influence charging and refueling behaviors becomes crucial for optimizing local energy markets. This paper proposes a simulation-based analysis of a hydrogen-electricity integrated charging station that serves both types of vehicles. A multi-agent simulation framework is developed to model the interactions between vehicles and the station, incorporating price- and delay-sensitive behaviors in decision-making. The station can dynamically adjust energy prices, while vehicles optimize their charging or refueling choices based on their utility values. A series of sensitivity analyses are conducted to evaluate how electricity pricing, infrastructure capacity, and waiting behavior impact station performance. Results highlight that moderate electricity prices maximize user participation without sacrificing profit, infrastructure should be right-sized to demand to avoid over- or underutilization, and delay-toleration also affects service outcomes, which may reach the maximum service coverage at the threshold of 45 minutes.

Wang, Xudong [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic analysis of sugarcane bagasse and straw conversion into cellulosic ethanol via consolidated bioprocessing

Cellulosic biofuels offer a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels and a means to mitigate climate change. Consolidated bioprocessing (CBP) featuring engineered thermophilic bacteria, combined with mechanical disruption during fermentation (cotreatment), has potential to lower production costs compared to featuring thermochemical pretreatment and added cellulase. A techno-economic analysis was conducted (230 million L ethanol/year) from sugarcane bagasse and straw at stand-alone facilities generating electricity from residues. Three scenarios were evaluated: Conventional, featuring hydrothermal pretreatment, fungal cellulase, and yeast fermentation (current commercial standard); Mid-term CBP, relying on bagasse solubilization without pretreatment or cotreatment; and Mature CBP, incorporating cotreatment but no pretreatment. Results for these scenarios in this order were: fixed capital investment (CapEx) $\$$589M, $\$$658M, and $\$$472M; net annual revenue (EBITDA) $\$$56M, $\$$96M, and $\$$94M; and minimum ethanol selling price 0.73, 0.61, and 0.48 US$\$$/L. Payback periods were 10.5, 6.9, and 5.1 years, while all scenarios showed <5 years at European prices for scales >100M L/year. Sensitivity and risk analysis highlighted ethanol price as the most critical variable. It is notable that Mid-term CBP had shorter payback times and better overall economic feasibility compared to Conventional. Our results underscore opportunities for research-driven innovation on low-cost cellulosic ethanol technologies in Brazil and elsewhere.

Consolidated bioprocessing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cooled Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Analysis for NH 3 -CH 4 Fuel Mixes (Up to 100% NH 3 )

In this study, a cooled gas turbine (GT) analysis was conducted for varying levels of ammonia (NH 3 ) blends with methane. The ultimate goal is to have a gas turbine design that can be used for all the fuel blends (including 100% NH 3 ) without any changes to the system. The technological developments in the cooling system, gas turbine design, and materials that will be required for NH 3 combustion were identified and analyzed in this study to develop an advanced gas turbine design for NH 3 fuels. The study includes a combined cycle performance analysis with the NH 3 fuel blends using the advanced gas turbine design developed in this study. A techno-economic analysis was conducted for analyzing the impact of the NH 3 fuels on the levelized cost of electricity and cost sensitivities to fuel price and capacity factor.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1989

Longwave spectral dependence of emission from warm dust clouds

Observations of the continuum emission from warm dust clouds at 230 GHz, or 1300 microns, enables the determination of the frequency dependence of the optically thin longwave emission. Integrating the emission over the solid angle of the clouds gives a flux independent of the beam size and of the internal temperature structure of the clouds. The frequency resolving power of 64 allows the correction of these fluxes for the contribution of free-free emission from nearby H II regions at a price of reduced sensitivity. These observations were combined with similar observations made by others in the submillimeter and far infrared regimes to determine the continuum spectra of the dust clouds. Mean characteristics were determined for these clouds, fitting the spectra with simple transfer equations. Results are briefly discussed.

Gordon, M. A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating CO 2 mitigation strategies in SAF biorefineries: Techno-economic and life cycle analysis

The aviation sector requires scalable decarbonization strategies, and lignocellulosic sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) represents a promising pathway. This study comparatively evaluates the techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment (LCA) of three CO 2 management strategies integrated within a U.S.-based gasification–Fischer–Tropsch SAF biorefinery: (i) catalytic hydrogenation of captured CO 2 to methanol, (ii) geological CO 2 sequestration, and (iii) mineralization to sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO 3 ). Techno-economic analysis indicates that methanol synthesis requires approximately 26% higher capital investment and 33% higher operating costs than mineralization. Although methanol co-production generates the highest gross revenue, NaHCO 3 production reduces the SAF minimum selling price by approximately 38% relative to both methanol synthesis and geological sequestration pathways, reflecting a more balanced cost allocation through mineral co-product valorization. Geological sequestration lowers operating costs by nearly 50% compared with methanol synthesis but remains highly dependent on carbon credit mechanisms. LCA reveals substantial divergence in climate performance. Relative to methanol synthesis, sequestration improves net greenhouse gas performance by approximately 163%, transitioning the system from net-positive to net-negative emissions. Mineralization further enhances carbon mitigation, achieving roughly 85% greater carbon reduction than sequestration and over sixfold improvement relative to methanol synthesis within the defined system boundary. Sensitivity analysis identified hydrogen price, co-product market value, and process emissions as dominant drivers. Under baseline assumptions, CO 2 mineralization is found to offer the most balanced pathway.

Carbon capture and storage↗