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At least 19 records

Probability of Initiation in Neutron Transport

We discuss the numerical solution of the nonlinear integro-differential equation for the probability of a divergent neutron chain in a stationary system (i.e., the probability of initiation (POI)). We follow the development described in Bell’s classic paper on the stochastic theory of neutron transport. As noted by Bell, the linearized form of this equation resembles the linear adjoint neutron transport equation. A matrix formalism for the discretized steady state (or forward) neutron equation in slab geometry is first developed and is then used to derive the discrete adjoint equation. A main advantage of this discrete development is that the resulting discrete adjoint equation does not depend upon how the multigroup cross sections for the forward problem are obtained. That is, we derive the discrete adjoint directly from the discrete forward equations rather than discretizing directly the adjoint equation. This also guarantees that the discrete adjoint operator is consistent with the inner product used to define the adjoint operator. We discuss three approaches for the numerical solution of the POI equations, and present numerical results on several test problems. The three solution methods are a simple fixed-point iteration, a second approach that is akin to a nonlinear Power iteration, and a third approach which uses a Newton-Krylov nonlinear solver. We also give sufficient conditions to guarantee the existence and uniqueness of nontrivial solutions to our discrete POI equations when the discrete system is supercritical, and that only the trivial solution exists when the discrete system is subcritical. Our approach is modeled after the analysis presented for the continuous POI equations by Mokhtar-Kharroubi and Jarmouni-Idrissi, and by Pazy and Rabinowitz.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Note on the Probability of Initiation Problem

The purpose of this note is to draw attention to Pál’s derivation of the Pál Bell equation which is used by LLNL and LANL to model Probability of Initiation (POI) problems. Both laboratories credit the equation to Bell and Lee. Although the equation formulated by Bell and Lee and the equation derived by Pál appear to be the same, the derivation by Bell and Lee is flawed. Scattering, which was absent in Bell’s original formulation of a POI problem, was later introduced by Bell and Lee by simply replacing a fission term with a scattering term. Such a replacement, however, leads to an inaccurate average number v̅ of neutrons that is produced by a fission event. By approaching a POI problem from probabilistic point of view, Pál formulates the problem as a branching process that determines v̅ correctly. There are six reasons for writing this report. The first is to clarify the failing in Bell and Lee’s derivation. The second is to establish the origin of the equation used by the laboratories. The third is to elucidate the fixed point technique formulated by Mokhtar-Kharroubi for solving the Pál-Bell equation. The fourth is to derive the α eigenvalue that is associated with a time dependent Pál-Bell equation. The fifth is to show in Appendix A that the non-linear fission operator of the Pál-Bell equation is descended from the operator of the Galton-Watson process of stochastic theory. The sixth is to describe in Appendix B a second order positivity preserving technique that accelerates the convergence of the first order fixed point method developed by Mokhtar-Kharroubi.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Note on the Probability of Initiation Problem

The purpose of this note is to draw attention to Pál for his derivation of the Pál-Bell equation which is used by LLNL and LANL to model Probability of Initiation (POI) problems. Both laboratories credit the equation to Bell and Lee. Although the equation formulated by Bell and Lee and the equation derived by Pál appear to be the same, the equation by Bell and Lee is flawed. Scattering, which was absent in Bell’s original formulation of a POI problem, was later introduced by Bell and Lee by replacing a fission term with a scattering term. Such a replacement, however, leads to an incorrect average number $\overline{v}$ of neutrons that is produced in a fission event. By approaching a POI problem from probabilistic point of view, Pál formulates the problem as a branching process that i) describes the growth of a population of neutrons in a fissile medium, and ii) predicts $\overline{v}$ correctly. There are five reasons for writing this report. The first is to clarify the failing in Bell and Lee’s derivation. The second is to establish the origin of the equation used by the laboratories. The third is to elucidate the fixed point technique formulated by Mokhtar-Kharroubi to solve the Pál-Bell equation. The fourth is to derive the α eigenvalue that is associated with a super-critical situation. The fifth is to describe in the Appendix a second order positivity preserving technique that accelerates the convergence of the first order fixed point method developed by Mokhtar-Kharroubi.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

TRISO SiC Failure Probability for Reactivity Initiated Accidents in High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors

This work analyzes the failure process of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer in tristructural isotropic (TRISO) during reactivity-initiated accident scenarios for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) with BISON. Two cases are considered—a group control rod withdrawal (CRW) and a control rod ejection (CRE)—reproduced from a previous study. Failure probability is modeled using Weibull statistics, and worst-case scenario Weibull parameters are adopted to simulate the envelopes in BISON with a one-dimensional TRISO model. CRW scenario results are characterized by higher values of maximum energy deposition and final temperature and volumetric strain with respect to the CRE ones, but the latter have remarkably higher SiC failure probability, mainly due to the offset in strain rates between the two cases. This work also confirms the validity and conservatism of the performance envelopes produced in a previous work by replicating the envelope formulation using RELAP5-3D and RAVEN with a different sampling technique and obtaining consistent results. A sensitivity analysis using the Sobol variance decomposition method on SiC failure probability is then performed involving a set of inputs on both CRW and CRE. The two most important parameters are Weibull modulus and characteristic stress, and their relative importance depends on the specific case. The proposed interpretation of the results is that both energy deposition and strain rate influence the relative degree of importance of the failure parameters. Computation of 95% confidence intervals around worst-case scenario SiC failure probability values is also carried out for four different sets of Weibull parameters. Heren a new criterion for SiC TRISO quality classification built upon safety-based ranges of Weibull parameters is proposed to be integrated in future Fuel-Production Quality Assurance Plans.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Model-Based Method for Sensor Validation

Fault detection, diagnosis, and prognosis are essential tasks in the operation of autonomous spacecraft, instruments, and in situ platforms. One of NASA s key mission requirements is robust state estimation. Sensing, using a wide range of sensors and sensor fusion approaches, plays a central role in robust state estimation, and there is a need to diagnose sensor failure as well as component failure. Sensor validation can be considered to be part of the larger effort of improving reliability and safety. The standard methods for solving the sensor validation problem are based on probabilistic analysis of the system, from which the method based on Bayesian networks is most popular. Therefore, these methods can only predict the most probable faulty sensors, which are subject to the initial probabilities defined for the failures. The method developed in this work is based on a model-based approach and provides the faulty sensors (if any), which can be logically inferred from the model of the system and the sensor readings (observations). The method is also more suitable for the systems when it is hard, or even impossible, to find the probability functions of the system. The method starts by a new mathematical description of the problem and develops a very efficient and systematic algorithm for its solution. The method builds on the concepts of analytical redundant relations (ARRs).

Vatan, Farrokh↗

Gaussian maximum likelihood and contextual classification algorithms for multicrop classification

The paper reviews some of the ways in which context has been handled in the remote-sensing literature, and additional possibilities are introduced. The problem of computing exhaustive and normalized class-membership probabilities from the likelihoods provided by the Gaussian maximum likelihood classifier (to be used as initial probability estimates to start relaxation) is discussed. An efficient implementation of probabilistic relaxation is proposed, suiting the needs of actual remote-sensing applications. A modified fuzzy-relaxation algorithm using generalized operations between fuzzy sets is presented. Combined use of the two relaxation algorithms is proposed to exploit context in multispectral classification of remotely sensed data. Results on both one artificially created image and one MSS data set are reported.

Di Zenzo, Silvano↗

The Corfu Landslide: Analog to Giant Landslides on Mars

In an analog to the great landslides of the Vales Marineris, Mars, a detailed study was made of the Corfu Landslide in south-central Washington. This prehistoric slide is located on the northern flank of the Saddle Mountains, southwest of Othello, Washington. The slide covers a 13 square km area centered on section 11 of T.15N., R.27E., Willamette Meridian, adjacent to the Corfu townsite. Approximately 1 cubic km of material is involved in sliding that was probably initiated by Missoula flooding through the Channeled Scabland. It is concluded that there were four primary factors involved in the initiation of the Corfu landsliding: (1) A slip surface was present at the right orientation; (2) Glacial flooding undercut the slope; (3) Wetter climatic conditions prevailed during that time period; and (4) Some seismic vibrations, known to occur locally, probably acted as a trigger. These factors show that special conditions were required in conjunction to produce landsliding. Studies in progress of the Vales Marieneris suggest that the same factors probably contributed to landsliding there.

Scott W. Lewis↗

Differential Processing of Low and High LET Radiation Induced DNA Damage: Investigation of Switch from ATM to ATR Signaling

The members of the phosphatidylinositol kinase-like kinase family of proteins namely ataxia-telangiectasia mutated (ATM) and ATM- and Rad3-related (ATR) are directly responsible for the maintenance of genomic integrity by mounting DDR through signaling and facilitating the recruitment of repair factors at the sites of DNA damage along with coordinating the deployment of cell cycle checkpoints to permit repair by phosphorylating Checkpoint kinase Chk1, Chk2 and p53. High LET radiation from GCR (Galactic Cosmic Rays) consisting mainly of protons and high energy and charged (HZE) particles from SPE (Solar Particle Event) pose a major health risk for astronauts on their space flight missions. The determination of these risks and the design of potential safeguards require sound knowledge of the biological consequences of lesion induction and the capability of the cells to counter them. We here strive to determine the coordination of ATM and ATR kinases at the break sites directly affecting checkpoint signaling and DNA repair and whether differential processing of breaks induced by low and high LET radiation leads to possible augmentation of swap of these damage sensors at the sites of DNA damage. Exposure of cells to IR triggers rapid autophosphorylation of serine-1981 that causes dimer dissociation and initiates monomer formation of ATM. ATM kinase activity depends on the disruption of the dimer, which allows access and phosphorylation of downstream ATM substrates like Chk2. Evidence suggests that ATM is activated by the alterations in higher-order chromatin structure although direct binding of ATM to DSB ends may be a crucial step in its activation. On the other hand, in case of ATR, RPA (replication protein A)-coated ssDNA (single-stranded DNA) generated as a result of stalled DNA replication or during processing of chromosomal lesions is crucial for the localization of ATR to sites of DNA damage in association with ATR-interacting protein (ATRIP). Although the majority of RPA-coated ssDNA is generally present only during DNA replication, ATR activation in G1 and G2-phase might still require formation of RPA-coated ssDNA, probably initiated by the MRN-CtIP complex and then extended by the Exo1- or BLM-dependent mechanisms at the sites of DSBs. Evidence accumulates that activation of ATM and ATR are oppositely regulated by the length of single stranded overhangs generated at the break sites by processes mentioned above and these stretches of single stranded overhangs hold the clue for ATM to ATR switch at broken DNA ends. We irradiated 82-6hTERT human fibroblast cells with low LET gamma-rays and high LET Fe and Si particles. Preliminary results with cells exposed to 1Gy gamma-rays show that the kinetics of pChk2-pT68 foci formation is comparable to that of gamma-H2AX although they appear to recede quicker. The number and intensity of observed foci reaches a maximum at 30 min and 60 min post IR for Chk2-pT68 and gamma-H2AX foci respectively and all Chk2-pT68 foci colocalize with gamma-H2AX foci. The kinetics of Chk1-pS345 and ATRIP are being determined. Results of Chk2-pT68 foci kinetics was also corroborated by western blot experiments, although phosphorylation was detected as early as 10 min and started receding 30 min post IR with 2Gy of gamma-rays. On the other hand, level of ATR-pS428 reached its maximum between 60 and 120 min and was maintained until the last measured time point of 4 hours post IR as determined by western blotting. Experiments performed with high LET Fe and Si particles will be reported.

Saha, Janapriya↗

Multi-Layer Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds Simulated by a Cloud-Resolving Model: Comparison with ARM Observations and Sensitivity Experiments

A cloud-resolving model (CRM) is used to simulate the multiple-layer mixed-phase stratiform (MPS) clouds that occurred during a three-and-a-half day subperiod of the Department of Energy-Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program s Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE). The CRM is implemented with an advanced two-moment microphysics scheme, a state-of-the-art radiative transfer scheme, and a complicated third-order turbulence closure. Concurrent meteorological, aerosol, and ice nucleus measurements are used to initialize the CRM. The CRM is prescribed by time-varying large-scale advective tendencies of temperature and moisture and surface turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat. The CRM reproduces the occurrences of the single- and double-layer MPS clouds as revealed by the M-PACE observations. However, the simulated first cloud layer is lower and the second cloud layer thicker compared to observations. The magnitude of the simulated liquid water path agrees with that observed, but its temporal variation is more pronounced than that observed. As in an earlier study of single-layer cloud, the CRM also captures the major characteristics in the vertical distributions and temporal variations of liquid water content (LWC), total ice water content (IWC), droplet number concentration and ice crystal number concentration (nis) as suggested by the aircraft observations. However, the simulated mean values differ significantly from the observed. The magnitude of nis is especially underestimated by one order of magnitude. Sensitivity experiments suggest that the lower cloud layer is closely related to the surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat; the upper cloud layer is probably initialized by the large-scale advective cooling/moistening and maintained through the strong longwave (LW) radiative cooling near the cloud top which enhances the dynamical circulation; artificially turning off all ice-phase microphysical processes results in an increase in LWP by a factor of 3 due to interactions between the excessive LW radiative cooling and extra cloud water; heating caused by phase change of hydrometeors could affect the LWC and cloud top height by partially canceling out the LW radiative cooling. It is further shown that the resolved dynamical circulation appears to contribute more greatly to the evolution of the MPS cloud layers than the parameterized subgrid-scale circulation.

Luo, Yali↗

Highly Active Hydrogen Evolution Reaction (HER) Catalysts Formed by Energetic Pt n Cluster Deposition: Deposition Dynamics and the HER Mechanism

Mass-selected Pt n + (n ≤ 7) were deposited at variable energies on highly oriented pyrolytic graphite (HOPG), creating highly active hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) electrocatalysts. HER mass activities were ~2 to >10 times higher than those for the surface atoms in bulk Pt and for Pt n deposited on several other supports. Thus, high activity reflects the Pt-C structures formed by energetic Pt n -HOPG impacts, in addition to high Pt surface availability. The Pt n /HOPG electrodes were probed by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, low energy ion scattering, and electron microscopy. Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics (BOMD) was used to simulate Pt n - HOPG impacts, revealing the types of structures formed at different energies, then DFT was used to probe their most important HER pathways. For low deposition energies, the Pt n deposit onto the HOPG surface with sub-unit sticking probability, aggregating at defects. With increasing deposition energy, the sticking probability initially decreases, then rises to unity as subplantation and defect creation allow formation of strongly bonded platinum-carbon structures. Barriers for HER on these structures were found to be low and weakly dependent on Pt n size, consistent with experiment. The activities were highest for small covalently-bonded Pt-C structures created at high deposition energies. The larger aggregated structures formed at low energies were less active, but still substantially better than the bulk Pt surface monolayer. The catalysts were stable in repeated potential cycling at reducing potentials, but electrodes containing subplanted Pt became more active when scanned to oxidizing potentials, due to emergence of subplanted Pt onto the surface.

08 HYDROGEN↗

The electric fields and “lightning jets” of the Sun and solar wind

A model of electric energization of the solar wind and corona is developed, including electro-magnetic particle effects precluded by traditional magneto-hydro (MHD) assumptions. Using standard 1D radial solar models for particle density and temperature, the core gravito-electric field is calculated; and the range of possible photospheric photo-electric fields is estimated. The extant DC field apparently arises from about 460 C of charge displacement, mainly caused by the immense solar energy flux pushing electrons outward. Energetically, this electric field can accelerate surface protons out of the 2 keV gravity well and up to the 4 keV energies observed in the fast solar wind. The electrical energy is released in pervasive, persistent “proton lightning jets,” which are proton beams, charge-neutralized by co-propagating electrons. The jets are formed by pinched “avalanche breakdown” of the weakly ionized photosphere, probably initiated on the down-welling edges of solar surface granulations. These energetic jets will glow as discrete filamentary surface spicules and will be observed in reflected solar light as the diffuse K-corona. Significantly, the total charge displacement and observed fast wind speed are quantitatively predicted by a novel “virial limit”: the (positive) electrical potential energy at r = 0 is limited in magnitude to the 10 keV gravitational well at r = 0.

Physics↗

Design of a minimum level lunar base infrastructure

The minimum necessary planet infrastructure required to support a lunar base is discussed. Various mission architectures are studied to illustrate the strategy of the minimum service level infrastructure (MSLI). These architectures encompass a standard suite of lunar surface elements (habitats, rovers, and power and communications systems), which are absolutely required to create and support the lunar base. Scientists are considered to be the most probable initial customers of a lunar base, and the initial lunar base is envisioned to provide the level of services required to support the scope of scientific activities. MSLI is considered to represent various additional services which cannot be justified by private investment or parochial interests and thereby must be provided by NASA or the government to encourage outside participation.

Connolly, John F.↗

Lossless compression of NOAA-AVHRR satellite data

A high-performance lossless compression system for satellite NOAA data is developed. The data is called 'high resolution picture transmission' (HRPT) data, and consists of around 93 percent advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) multi-channel image data and 7 percent of miscellaneous data. In compressing the image portion, we classify each pixel into 10 different groups and apply a multi-channel prediction and a non-linear error conversion. The entropy coder is an arithmetic coder which is adaptive and regenerates the approximation of the statistical properties of the source as an initial probability table. To compress the non-image part, we used the general compressor (gzip). From experimental results, the original information is compressed down to 25 percent to approx. 40 percent.

Takamura, Seishi↗

Radar Interferometry Studies of the Mass Balance of Polar Ice Sheets

The objectives of this work are to determine the current state of mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Our approach combines different techniques, which include satellite synthetic-aperture radar interferometry (InSAR), radar and laser altimetry, radar ice sounding, and finite-element modeling. In Greenland, we found that 3.5 times more ice flows out of the northern part of the Greenland Ice Sheet than previously accounted for. The discrepancy between current and past estimates is explained by extensive basal melting of the glacier floating sections in the proximity of the grounding line where the glacier detaches from its bed and becomes afloat in the ocean. The inferred basal melt rates are very large, which means that the glaciers are very sensitive to changes in ocean conditions. Currently, it appears that the northern Greenland glaciers discharge more ice than is being accumulated in the deep interior, and hence are thinning. Studies of temporal changes in grounding line position using InSAR confirm the state of retreat of northern glaciers and suggest that thinning is concentrated at the lower elevations. Ongoing work along the coast of East Greenland reveals an even larger mass deficit for eastern Greenland glaciers, with thinning affecting the deep interior of the ice sheet. In Antarctica, we found that glaciers flowing into a large ice shelf system, such as the Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea, exhibit an ice discharge in remarkable agreement with mass accumulation in the interior, and the glacier grounding line positions do not migrate with time. Glaciers flowing rapidly into the Amudsen Sea, unrestrained by a major ice shelf, are in contrast discharging more ice than required to maintain a state of mass balance and are thinning quite rapidly near the coast. The grounding line of Pine Island glacier (see diagram) retreated 5 km in 4 years, which corresponds to a glacier thinning rate of 3.5 m/yr. Mass imbalance is even more negative on Thwaites Glacier. This sector of West Antarctica probably initiated its collapse decades or centuries ago, once the embaying ice shelves in front of them started to melt because of enhanced basal melting from warmer ocean waters. Additional information is contained in the original.

Rignot, Eric↗

Environmental Influence of Gravity and Pressure on Arc Tracking of Insulated Wires Investigated

Momentary short-circuit arcs between a defective polyimide-insulated wire and another conductor may thermally char (pyrolize) the insulating material. The charred polyimide, being conductive, can sustain the short-circuit arc, which may propagate along the wire through continuous pyrolization of the polyimide insulation (arc tracking). If the arcing wire is part of a multiple-wire bundle, the polyimide insulation of other wires within the bundle may become thermally charred and start arc tracking also (flash over). Such arc tracking can lead to complete failure of an entire wire bundle, causing other critical spacecraft or aircraft failures. Unfortunately, all tested candidate wire insulations for aerospace vehicles were susceptible to arc tracking. Therefore, a test procedure was designed at the NASA Lewis Research Center to select the insulation type least susceptible to arc tracking. This test procedure addresses the following three areas of concern: (1) probability of initiation, (2) probability of reinitiation (restrike), and (3) extent of arc tracking damage (propagation rate). Item 2 (restrike probability) is an issue if power can be terminated from and reapplied to the arcing wire (by a switch, fuse, or resettable circuit breaker). The degree of damage from an arcing event (item 3) refers to how easily the arc chars nearby insulation and propagates along the wire pair. Ease of nearby insulation charring can be determined by measuring the rate of arc propagation. Insulation that chars easily will propagate the arc faster than insulation that does not char very easily. A popular polyimide insulated wire for aerospace vehicles, MIL-W-81381, was tested to determine a degree of damage from an arcing event (item 3) in the following three environments: (1) microgravity with air at 1-atm pressure, (2) 1g with air at 1 atm, and (3) 1g within a 10^-6 Torr vacuum. The microgravity 1-atm air was the harshest environment, with respect to the rate of damage of arc tracking, for the 20 AWG (American Wiring Gauge) MIL-W-81381 wire insulation type . The vacuum environment resulted in the least damage. Further testing is planned to determine if the environmental results are consistent between insulation types and to evaluate the other two parameters associated with arc tracking susceptibility.

Source record↗

The Reconstruction and Failure Analysis of The Space Shuttle Columbia

This viewgraph presentation describes a very detailed reconstruction plan and failure analysis of The Space Shuttle Columbia accident. The contents include: 1) STS-107 Timeline; 2) Foam Impact; 3) Recovery; 4) Reconstruction; 5) Reconstruction Plan; 6) Reconstruction Hanger; 7) Pathfinders; 8) Aluminum Pathfinder; 9) Early Analysis - Left MLG Door Area; 10) Emphasis Switched to Left Hand Wing Leading Edge; 11) Wing Leading Edge Subsystem (LESS); 12) 3D Reconstruction of Left WLE; 13) Left Wing Tile Table; 14) LESS Observations; 15) Left Hand Wing Debris Points to RCC 8/9 - Slumped Tile; 16) Reconstructed View of LC/P 9 tile with I/B Tile; 17) Reconstructed View of Lower C/P 9 Tile; 18) Carrier Panel 8 - Upper; 19) Left Hand Wing Debris Points to RCC 8/9 - Erosion and RCC with attach hole intact; 20) Erosion on Panel 8 Upper Outboard Rib; 21) RCC Panels 8 & 9 Erosion Features; 22) Slumping Source for Carrier Panel 9 Tile was Revealed; 23) Debris Indicated Highest Probability Initiation Site; 24) Left Hand Wing Debris Points to RCC 8/9- Metallic Deposits; 25) Relative Metallic Deposition on L/H Wing Materials; 26) Metallic Deposit Example, LH RCC 8; 27) High Level Questions; 28) Analysis Plan Challenges; 29) Analysis Techniques; 30) Analysis Approach; 31) RCC Panel 8 Erosion Features; 32) Radiographic Features; 33) Radiography WLE LH Panel 8; 34) LH RCC 8 Upper Apex; 35) LH RCC 8 - Deposit Feature: Thick Tear Shaped; 36) LH RCC 8 - Deposit Feature: Thick Globules; 37) LH RCC 8 - Deposit Feature: Spheroids; 38) LH RCC 8 - Deposit Feature: Uniform Deposit; 39) Significant Findings - Sampling All Other panels; 40) Proposed Breach Location and Plasma Flow; 41) Corroborating Information - RCC Panel Debris Locations; 42) Corroborating Information - LH OMS Pod Analysis; 43) Corroborating Information - Impact Testing; and 44) Overall Forensic Conclusions.

Russell, Richard W.↗

ENRE 655 Class Project. Development of the Initial Main Parachute Failure Probability for the Constellation Program (CxP) Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Parachute Assembly System (CPAS)

Loss of Crew (LOC) and Loss of Mission (LOM) are two key requirements the Constellation Program (CxP) measure against. To date, one of the top risk drivers for both LOC and LOM has been Orion's Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Parachute Assembly System (CPAS). Even though the Orion CPAS is one of the top risk drivers of CxP, it has been very difficult to obtain any relevant data to accurately quantify the risk. At first glance, it would seem that a parachute system would be very reliable given the track record of Apollo and Soyuz. Given the success of those two programs, the amount of data is considered to be statistically insignificant. However, due to CxP having LOC/LOM as key design requirements, it was necessary for Orion to generate a valid prior to begin the Risk Informed Design process. To do so, the Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Space Shuttle & Exploration Analysis Section generated an initial failure probability for Orion to use in preparation for the Orion Systems Requirements Review (SRR).

Fuqua, Bryan C.↗

Prediction of initiation of low and high explosive fillers due to fragment or projectile impact

A methodology is presented which provides predictions for the probability of initiation of explosion in high explosive filled warheads and in propellant filled rocket motor cases given the impact of compact fragments or of small projectiles. Equations of velocities at which 50 percent of the explosive filled cases will initiate either high or low order are developed for compact fragments, and for projectiles. These data are used to establish the standard deviation of the data from the 50 percent initiation line. Standard deviation is used to provide predictions of the probability of initiation given the impact velocity and other pertinent parameters using equations and logic which are established in a computer model. This computer model uses fragment material properties and encounter parameters to predict fragment impact initiation, and projectile and casing material properties and encounter parameters to predict projectile impact initiation.

Zabel, P. H.↗