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At least 19 records

How Can Construction Process Simulation Modeling Aid the Integration of Lean Principles in the Factory-Built Housing Industry?

New and existing factories that produce and deliver factory-built housing can benefit from construction process simulation modeling to explore the integration of Lean principles in their operations. Construction process simulation modeling provides digital or virtual recreations of the real-world factory environments to visualize, quantify, analyze, and optimize their underlying behavior, including factory productivity, material flow, labor dynamics, bottlenecks, and work scope. One of the key benefits of process simulation modeling is the ability to create and compare "what-if" scenarios, including integrating Lean principles such as reducing waste (for example, transportation, waiting), line balancing, and just-in-time concepts. In general, three process simulation methods are widely used: discrete event simulation (DES), agentbased modeling (ABM), and system dynamics (SD). Myriad process simulation software also is available, but depending on the industry, complexity of the system, and purposes of the simulation, some software might be more appropriate. Similar to how computer-aided design (CAD) software such as AutoCAD and Rhinoceros enable building design of modular or factory-built housing, process simulation modeling software such as jStrobe, ProModel, and AnyLogic can enable factory design of new and existing factories to deliver modular affordable housing at scale, as opposed to traditional site-built construction. Software with DES capabilities can help generate a process model that is a logical representation of resources and activities in a factory. Software with CAD-DES integration can leverage product-process data integration to help spatially visualize a DES model of the factory in the CAD environment. Software with multimethod simulation capabilities, widely used in the manufacturing industry, brings together DES, ABM, and SD in a single platform that allows visualization, quantification, analyses, and optimization at varying data fidelities. Near-real-time data from an existing factory can be directly plugged into multimethod simulation software so that the construction process simulation model is a near-accurate representation of the real-world factory conditions. This report provides insights into the use of simulation as an aid to integrate Lean concepts in factories, including guidelines for selecting the appropriate process simulation modeling method and software. These insights have been developed as part of ongoing process simulation modeling research, development, and demonstration projects at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory focused on how process simulation models can enable better integration of resilience, energy efficiency, and low-carbon design strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Discrete-event Simulation Process Model for the Pyrochemical Processing of Plutonium at Los Alamos National Laboratory

The pyrochemical metal production operations that occur in the Plutonium Facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory perform plutonium purification with the aim to provide plutonium metal for a variety of defense- and non-defense missions within the National Nuclear Security Administration. The demands and constraints associated with the pyrochemical processing of plutonium are complex, making decision analyses challenging for program managers who require plutonium production for their mission applications. The construction of a discrete-event simulation process model is proposed to measure and report the process capacity, material throughput, equipment requirements, and dose accumulation for operators of the pyrochemical metal production operations. The process model, constructed in the ExtendSim™ software, will represent the cause-and-effect relationships between the pyrochemical processing environment and the process constraints, including criticality limitations, material control and accountability measures, chemical analysis requirements, and equipment availability. An accurate representation of the pyrochemical metal production process capacity through simulation modeling will be helpful to program managers in their efforts to forecast plutonium availability for mission applications. Furthermore, the proposed process model will be vital for future analyses that will measure the interactions between the pyrochemical metal production operations and the aqueous reprocessing operations and their ability to minimize transuranic waste disposal.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Quench process modeling & simulation in the heat-treatment of critical aerospace components

To manufacture light-weight, advanced metal alloy components for gas turbine engines, quench heat-treatment processes are typically used. By quenching the component from elevated temperatures, the alloy sometimes undergoes a solid-state phase transformation which produces special microstructures with the required, enhanced mechanical properties. However, the quenching can also lead to cracks forming in the component. Addressing the quench cracking problems adds a significant burden to the cost, schedule, and energy demand of manufacture. Currently, optimizing the quench process to mitigate or avoid the cracking is performed largely by trial-and-error, relying heavily on costly experimental (thermocouple)trials to understand the local thermal gradients which cause the cracks to form. In this first part (Phase 1) of the work, high-performance computing is employed to establish the ability of modern CFD (computational fluid dynamics) to alleviate or wholly replace the experimental quenching trials by virtual testing. A Baseline CFD model is defined and its accuracy established to be comparable to(and which usually exceeds) the accuracy of existing HTC (heat-transfer coefficient) based simulation methods of quenching. As a first-principles based approach, “calibration” of the Baseline CFD model is independent of the quench process itself, but instead relies on the accuracy of the underlying (modeled),generic two-phase fluid processes which cannot be currently resolved by CFD for large, industrial-scale cases. A novel, high-fidelity DNS capability has been developed and verified to examine and further improve upon the mean-field closure submodels on which the Baseline CFD approach is based.1

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Quench process modeling & simulation in the heat-treatment of critical aerospace components

To manufacture light-weight, advanced metal alloy components for gas turbine engines, quench heat-treatment processes are typically used. By quenching the component from elevated tempera-tures, the alloy sometimes undergoes a solid-state phase transformation which produces special microstructures with the required, enhanced mechanical properties. However, the quenching can also lead to cracks forming in the component. Addressing the quench cracking problems adds a significant burden to the cost, schedule, and energy demand of manufacture. Currently, optimizing the quench process to mitigate or avoid the cracking is performed largely by trial-and-error, relying heavily on costly experimental (thermocouple) trials to understand the local thermal gradients which cause the cracks to form. In this first part (Phase 1) of the work, high-performance computing is employed to establish the ability of modern CFD (computational fluid dynamics) to alleviate or wholly replace the experimental quenching trials by virtual testing. A baseline CFD model is defined and its accuracy established to be comparable to (and which usually exceeds) the accuracy of existing HTC (heat-transfer correlation) based simulation methods of quenching. As a first-principles based approach, “calibration” of the Baseline CFD model is independent of the quench process itself, but instead relies on the accuracy of the underlying (modeled), generic two-phase fluid processes which cannot be currently resolved by CFD for large, industrial-scale cases. A novel, high-fidelity DNS capability has been developed and verified to examine and further improve upon the mean-field closure submodels on which the Baseline CFD approach is based.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The IDAES process modeling framework and model library—Flexibility for process simulation and optimization

Abstract Energy systems and manufacturing processes of the 21st century are becoming increasingly dynamic and interconnected, which require new capabilities to effectively model and optimize their design and operations. Such next generation computational tools must leverage state‐of‐the‐art techniques in optimization and be able to rapidly incorporate new advances. To address these requirements, we have developed the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform, which builds on the strengths of both process simulators (model libraries) and algebraic modeling languages (advanced solvers). This paper specifically presents the IDAES Core Modeling Framework (IDAES‐CMF), along with a case study demonstrating the application of the framework to solve process optimization problems. Capabilities provided by this framework include a flexible, modifiable, open‐source platform for optimization of process flowsheets utilizing state‐of‐the‐art solvers and solution techniques, fully open and extensible libraries of dynamic unit operations models and thermophysical property models, and integrated support for superstructure‐based conceptual design and optimization under uncertainty.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Biochemical Process Modeling and Simulation (BPMS)

The Biochemical Process Modeling and Simulation project aims to reduce the cost and time of research by applying theory, modeling, and simulation to the most relevant bottlenecks in the biochemical process. We use molecular modeling, quantum mechanics, metabolic modeling, fluid dynamics, and reaction-diffusion methods in close collaboration with pretreatment, hydrolysis, upgrading, and TEA. The project's outcomes are increased yields and efficiency of the biochemical process, added value to products, and reduced price of fuels by specifically targeting catalytic efficiency, reactor design, enzyme efficiency, and microbial design. We work closely with experimental projects to identify problems and iterate with experiments to find and refine solutions. By working with experimentalists, we decide on problems that can be solved with simulation that could otherwise not be solved or would take too long with experiment alone to reach BETO's targets. Over the years, we have produced solutions that have resulted in determining the most likely fatty-acid derivative for passive transport out of bacteria that upgrade biomass, and we have also designed enzyme mutations for enhanced lignin upgrading. Metabolic models have been developed to tune the activity of 2,3 butanediol production for the 2030 target. A computational method to deliver understanding of how complex omics data can be interpreted in the metabolic pathways of organisms used in the Agile Biofoundry. We have found methods to overcome specific barriers and continue to develop those methods. Our reactor studies have guided the design of both the microbes and reactors for aerobic and micro-aerobic production at all scales and have been instrumental in improving the accuracy of techno-economic analysis models. This project is essential in the process of selecting the final processes for 2030 SAF production targets. More specifically, recently, we have: 1) Predicted the strength of the basic structural interactions in commodity plastics to provide guidance for plastics upcycling strategies. 2) Developed computational tool to improve the characterization of lignin-derived compounds 3) Developed new methodologies to enable Machine Learning-based Directed Evolution for protein engineering. 4) Developed Machine Learning methods to predict protein promiscuity and mutations to further improve microbial and enzymatic driven processes and demonstrated the utility of ML approaches to engineering proteins from sparse experimental datasets. 5) Developed new methods to enable high-fidelity simulation of aerobic fermentation at industrial scale and resolving mismatch of time scales through subcycling/operator splitting 7) Identified the difficulty in preventing local high-oxygen conditions in industrial bubble columns, which leads to less-desirable acetoin production, suggesting future research directions in alternative reactor configurations (e.g loop reactors, shallow-channel reactors).

BIOMASS FUELS↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Biochemical Process Modeling and Simulation (BPMS)

The Biochemical Process Modeling and Simulation project aims to reduce the cost and time of research by applying theory, modeling, and simulation to the most relevant bottlenecks in the biochemical process. We use molecular modeling, quantum mechanics, metabolic modeling, fluid dynamics, and reaction-diffusion methods in close collaboration with pretreatment, hydrolysis, upgrading, and TEA. The project's outcomes are increased yields and efficiency of the biochemical process, added value to products, and reduced price of fuels by specifically targeting catalytic efficiency, reactor design, enzyme efficiency, and microbial design.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Opportunities and challenges in process modeling and simulation of electrochemical systems

Electrochemical technologies have garnered intense interest in both academic research and industrial applications due to their potential to increase energy efficiency and reduce carbon footprint. However, electrochemical process fundamentals have been absent from the chemical process simulators available to millions of chemical engineers worldwide. To expedite process research and development of electrochemical technologies in the chemical industry, it is imperative that essential electrochemical process fundamentals be incorporated into process simulators to support modeling and simulation of electrochemical processes. Here, this study examines three process fundamentals key to the research and development of electrochemical processes: electrochemical reaction kinetics, electrolyte thermodynamics, and heat and mass transfer. It further illustrates application of these process fundamentals with a case study modeling an electrochemical process for the conversion of acrylonitrile to adiponitrile. The modeling example highlights the roles of applied voltage on reaction rates, and electron flow rates on the performance of electrochemical processes. It suggests that the applied voltage and electron flow rates are two unique concepts that should be included in simulators for electrochemical processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DART-PFLOTRAN: An ensemble-based data assimilation system for estimating subsurface flow and transport model parameters

Ensemble-based Data Assimilation (EDA), based on the Monte Carlo approach, has been effectively applied to estimate model parameters through inverse modeling in subsurface flow and transport problems. However, implementation of EDA approach involves a complicated workflow that include setting up and executing ensemble forward model simulations, processing observations and model simulation results for parameter updates, and repeat for sequential or iterative EDA. To facilitate the management of such workflow and lower the barriers for adopting EDA-based parameter estimation in subsurface science, we develop a generic software frame-work linking the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) with a massively parallel subsurface FLOw and TRANsport code PFLOTRAN. The new DART-PFLOTRAN leverages both the core data assimilation engines in DART and the computational power afforded by PFLOTRAN. In addition to the standard smoother and filtering options, DART-PFLOTRAN enables an iterative EDA workflow based on the Ensemble Smoother for Multiple Data Assimilation method (ES-MDA) to improve estimation accuracy for nonlinear forward problems. Here, we verify the implementation of ES-MDA in DART-PFLOTRAN using two synthetic cases designed to estimate static permeability and dynamic exchange fluxes across the riverbed, respectively, from continuous temperature measurements made across a depth profile. One-dimensional hydro-thermal simulations are performed in both cases to relate temperature responses with the parameters of interest. In the case of estimating dynamic parameters, we demonstrate the flexibility of DART-PFLOTRAN in automating sequential ES-MDA workflow, which will significantly reduce the time researchers spend on managing complex workflows in similar applications. Both studies yield accurate estimations of the parameters compared to their synthetic truth, while ES-MDA leads to more accurate estimation when a high level of nonlinearity exist between observed responses and unknown parameters. With a code base in Python and Fortran, DART-PFLOTRAN paves the way for applications in large-scale subsurface inverse modeling by automating the complex workflow of sequential ES-MDA that can be executed on various computing platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

AI-Enabled Discovery and Physics-Based Optimization of Energy Efficient Processing Strategies for Advanced Turbine Alloys (Final Technical Report)

In this project, the multi-organizational team of academic and industrial researchers from the University of Kentucky an aerospace and energy generation OEM partner has leveraged novel Digital Process Twin (DPT) models of process/structure interactions (i.e., process-induced surface integrity) to advance a paradigm of fully integrated computational materials engineering (ICME). Using efficient process models as the core of a digital process simulator for a reinforcement learning algorithm, the team has integrated industrial data and metrics of structure/performance/energy relationships and manufacturing-related energy metrics to optimize dynamic processing parameters for significantly improved life-cycle energy efficiency of advanced γ-TiAl low-pressure turbine (LPT) alloys, as indicated by a set of design relevant parameters (e.g., residual stresses and scrap rate). The key objective and anticipated outcome of the project was at least a 10% reduction in life-cycle embodied energy for a recently developed, γ-TiAl low-pressure turbine (LPT) alloy and nickel-based superalloy Inconel 718, through the adoption of the proposed AI-enabled process optimization approach. The final project outcomes significantly exceeded this original target, realizing manufacturing-related energy efficiency improvements of more than 130% for TiAl and up to 80% for Inconel 718. Rather than following the prevailing and highly inefficient empirical paradigm, the proposed study demonstrated the feasibility of adopting a digital, physics-based process design and optimization paradigm. The recurring need for manual intervention, rework, reinspection causes significant production bottlenecks and unnecessary expense associated with delivering the requisite component quality. The OEM partner, and turbine industry in general, expect to reap significant cost and resource savings if an AI-optimized set of parameters can be applied to specific machining operations. The technical scope of the proposed project involved the paving of a realistic path towards model-based and AI-enabled Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME), and away from inefficient empirical process optimization and legacy manufacturing practices, which are no longer able to efficiently process novel high-performance turbine alloy materials. The project team will address the fundamental knowledge gap that currently exists within the ICME paradigm with respect to the process/structure/performance/energy impacts of finishing processes. While significant resources have been devoted to the ‘early stages’ of manufacturing, such as alloy design, primary and secondary processing, finishing processes have not been adequately integrated within ICME. To provide an actionable path towards model-based finishing process design (e.g., machining, burnishing, grinding, polishing), we will employ a novel AI-enabled process optimization paradigm, based on a computationally efficient, physics-based process simulator. Through limited experimental work to calibrate and validate our process simulator model via an advanced in-situ characterization technique and process optimization via reinforcement learning, the project will seek to demonstrate a viable alternative to the inefficient ‘legacy’ processing strategies, empirical testing and broad scope machining learning approaches, all of which fail to adequately consider complex process physics. The project team has identified an intermetallic γ-TiAl LPT alloy, which is currently being used as part of the OEM partner’s advanced gas turbine designs. This particular alloy poses significant manufacturing challenges during finishing operations, which limit the degree to which the current turbine design can be manufactured in an energy- and cost-efficient manner. Empirical testing and numerical modeling efforts to optimize processing parameters for γ-TiAl have not been able to resolve these manufacturing challenges, so the proposed physics-based AI-enabled optimization technology would offer a truly novel and transformative capability. The multi-organizational team of academic and industry experts from the UKY and the OEM partner will work together closely to demonstrate the analytical and experimental critical function and characteristic proof of concept of this novel approach.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Process Modeling of CO 2 Absorption with Monoethanolamine Aqueous Solutions Using Rotating Packed Beds

A first-principle process simulation model is presented for the chemical absorption of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) with monoethanolamine (MEA) aqueous solutions using rotating packed beds (RPB). Built on a proven rate-based packed bed absorber model, the RPB model rigorously simulates the phase and chemical equilibria at the vapor-liquid interface, the heat and mass transfer across the gas and liquid films, the fast reactions between MEA and CO 2 in the liquid film, and the RPB hydraulics. Here, estimation of the mass transfer rate across the liquid film is central to accurate simulation of the CO 2 absorption process with MEA aqueous solutions. We show that the literature lab-scale RPB data for CO 2 removal efficiency can be satisfactorily correlated by introducing a correction factor for the effective packing surface area predicted by the Onda correlation. Given the validated RPB model, we further show that, among the gas-phase mass transfer coefficient, the liquid-phase mass transfer coefficient, and the reaction rate constant for the reaction between amine and CO 2 , the reaction rate constant is the controlling step with the highest potential to enhance the CO 2 absorption performance in RPB.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Machine learning models inaccurately predict current and future high-latitude C balances

The high-latitude carbon (C) cycle is a key feedback to the global climate system, yet because of system complexity and data limitations, there is currently disagreement over whether the region is a source or sink of C. Recent advances in big data analytics and computing power have popularized the use of machine learning (ML) algorithms to upscale site measurements of ecosystem processes, and in some cases forecast the response of these processes to climate change. Due to data limitations, however, ML model predictions of these processes are almost never validated with independent datasets. To better understand and characterize the limitations of these methods, we develop an approach to independently evaluate ML upscaling and forecasting. We mimic data-driven upscaling and forecasting efforts by applying ML algorithms to different subsets of regional process-model simulation gridcells, and then test ML performance using the remaining gridcells. In this study, we simulate C fluxes and environmental data across Alaska using ecosys, a process-rich terrestrial ecosystem model, and then apply boosted regression tree ML algorithms to training data configurations that mirror and expand upon existing AmeriFLUX eddy-covariance data availability. We first show that a ML model trained using ecosys outputs from currently-available Alaska AmeriFLUX sites incorrectly predicts that Alaska is presently a modeled net C source. Increased spatial coverage of the training dataset improves ML predictions, halving the bias when 240 modeled sites are used instead of 15. However, even this more accurate ML model incorrectly predicts Alaska C fluxes under 21st century climate change because of changes in atmospheric CO 2 , litter inputs, and vegetation composition that have impacts on C fluxes which cannot be inferred from the training data. Our results provide key insights to future C flux upscaling efforts and expose the potential for inaccurate ML upscaling and forecasting of high-latitude C cycle dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Study of Reduced Tubing Size Effects on Flow in Depleted Reservoir Natural Gas Storage Wells

This report explores the effects of tubing size reductions on natural gas flow from representative depleted reservoir underground storage wells and fields using basic models for coupled reservoir and pipe flow. This work was motivated by interest at the U.S. Department of Transportation, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, in evaluating the effects of tubing and packer as a potential safety upgrade to implement double-barrier systems to existing underground natural gas storage wells. Reservoir and well flow models were developed from widely accepted industry equations, verified against a commercial process simulator model, and validated against field data. The study utilized U.S. operator survey data to provide context and assure that modeling parameters including aver age deliverability rates for wells and fields, operating pressures, well depths, and storage capacities were all carefully considered to keep the modeling relevant to the known range of U.S. operations. The models generally found that wells and fields with inherently low deliverability were relatively insensitive to reductions in tubing diameter, primarily because the hydraulics in those cases were controlled by reservoir properties. For the high-producing wells and fields, the models found that reducing tubing diameter could produce significant reductions in deliverability, both at the field- and well-level. When put into context with occurrence data regarding average deliverability of fields and wells, it appears that most wells and most fields across the U.S. would experience deliverability reductions on the low end of what was simulated here, generally below 20%. For fields with moderate to high deliverability, reductions were generally larger, and could reach as high as 60% for the highest-producing wells and fields.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Tanana River Test Site Model Verification Using the Marine and Hydrokinetic Toolkit (MHKiT)

The marine energy (ME) industry historically lacked a standardized data processing toolkit for common tasks such as data ingestion, quality control, and visualization. The marine and hydrokinetic toolkit (MHKiT) solved this issue by providing a public software deployment (open-source and free) toolkit for the ME industry to store and maintain commonly used functionality for wave, tidal, and river energy. This paper demonstrates an initial model verification study in MHKiT. Using Delft3D, a numerical model of the Tanana River Test Site (TRTS) at Nenana, Alaska was created. Field data from the site was collected using an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) at the proposed Current Energy Converter (CEC) locations. MHKiT is used to process model simulations from Delft3D and compare them to the transect data from the ADCP measurements at TRTS. The ability to use a single tool to process simulation and field data demonstrates the ease at which the ME industry can obtain results and collaborate across specialties, reducing errors and increasing efficiency.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Adaptation Strategies Strongly Reduce the Future Impacts of Climate Change on Simulated Crop Yields

Abstract Simulations of crop yield due to climate change vary widely between models, locations, species, management strategies, and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To understand how climate and adaptation affects yield change, we developed a meta‐model based on 8703 site‐level process‐model simulations of yield with different future adaptation strategies and climate scenarios for maize, rice, wheat and soybean. We tested 10 statistical models, including some machine learning models, to predict the percentage change in projected future yield relative to the baseline period (2000–2010) as a function of explanatory variables related to adaptation strategy and climate change. We used the best model to produce global maps of yield change for the RCP4.5 scenario and identify the most influential variables affecting yield change using Shapley additive explanations. For most locations, adaptation was the most influential factor determining the projected yield change for maize, rice and wheat. Without adaptation under RCP4.5, all crops are expected to experience average global yield losses of 6%–21%. Adaptation alleviates this average projected loss by 1–13 percentage points. Maize was most responsive to adaptive practices with a projected mean yield loss of −21% [range across locations: −63%, +3.7%] without adaptation and −7.5% [range: −46%, +13%] with adaptation. For maize and rice, irrigation method and cultivar choice were the adaptation types predicted to most prevent large yield losses, respectively. When adaptation practices are applied, some areas are predicted to experience yield gains, especially at northern high latitudes. These results reveal the critical importance of implementing adequate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change on crop yields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗