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Framework for a Digital Documented Safety Analysis

This framework is developed to progress the digital implementation of digital tools applied to the DOE authorization process, with future applications to NRC SAR development/review, to accelerate the design and review processes of advanced nuclear reactors. The engineering design and licensing process for nuclear reactors is currently burdened by a document-based approach that leads to duplications and errors due to a lack of traceability among numerous static documents. Changes to design information require labor-intensive manual tracing through these documents, creating a high potential for human error. The adoption of a digital ecosystem, utilizing a digital thread to link various aspects of project design and analysis, promises dynamic documentation generation, automatic updates, and error reduction. Model Based Definition (MBD) and Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) tools are central to this digital transformation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Digital Twin Industry Standards and Opportunities from the Particle Accelerator Community

Digital twins (DTs) are predictive models of a physical system that dynamically update to reflect any changes. This concept was first conceived as early as 1993 by David Gelernter in his speculative non-fiction Mirror Worlds. DTs were coined in 2002 by Michael Grieves and applied to Product Lifecycle Management for manufacturing. Since then, industry has been developing tools to simplify the creation, deployment, and use of digital twins for manufacturing, fleet management, and biological systems. We will recommend industry standard technology and interfaces that we should adopt in the accelerator community. We further identify gaps in this technology to which we can add new capabilities and solutions, which can be expanded for our use cases.

Miceli, Tia [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000265577789)

Modeling Cyber Supply Chain Incidents with Multilayered Graph Motifs

As noted within the literature, supply chain includes people and organizations---manufacturers, integrators, and third-party vendors---that are involved in one or more stages of a product lifecycle. Since supply chains, by definition, include organizations and people, supply chain risk management activities must consider dependencies between an organization's business processes and third-party resources. Just as adversarial tactics can be implemented via techniques implemented via networked computer systems, so can such tactics be expressed via legal business relationships. A cyber incident may have an exponential impact downstream, for example, by leveraging a product's distribution channel (e.g. malicious updates in SolarWinds, buggy updates in CrowdStrike). Similarly, legitimate and legal business relationships also affect the attack surface exposure of systems, enabling long-term persistence and/or unknown impacts to product quality that are hard to detect. This paper catalogs several recent digital supply chain incidents and applies a multilayered network formalism to develop structural indicators (graph motifs) that reflect potentially-adversarial behavior. Finally, we compare and contrast the characteristics of adversarial tactics (e.g. Loss of Availability, Data Collection) that leverage cyber-physical dependencies to those that leverage legal organizational relationships.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

A critical review and meta-analysis of energy demand, carbon footprint, and other environmental impacts from carbon fiber manufacturing

The demand for carbon fibers and carbon fiber-reinforced polymers (CFRPs) is rapidly growing due to their outstanding mechanical properties and potential to enhance sustainability, particularly for lightweighting applications. However, carbon fibers are typically produced from fossil-based feedstocks, involve energy-intensive processes, and have limited options for sustainable end-of-life management or circularity. Despite these challenges, the energy demand and lifecycle environmental implications of their production remain poorly understood. Here, we conduct a critical literature review and meta-analysis of carbon fiber manufacturing, revealing significant variations in reported energy demand, carbon footprint, and lifecycle inventory data. Our analysis makes two novel contributions. First, we identify key underlying factors driving these variations. Second, we highlight that carbon fiber, far from being a homogeneous product, has grades varying substantially in mechanical properties, end-use markets, energy intensity of manufacturing processes, and therefore environmental impacts—an aspect often underrepresented in life cycle assessments. We assert that current data are insufficient for reliably evaluating environmental impacts, posing a risk of misleading decision-making. Addressing this gap requires new lifecycle inventory datasets clearly incorporating carbon fiber heterogeneity and key influencing factors identified in this study. Additionally, we propose actionable recommendations, including a checklist, to advance sustainability in the carbon fiber sector.

CED

ORNL Package Testing Program Software Quality Assurance Plan

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Package Testing Program (PTP) uses commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software in performing data collection of thermal test results for package designs that contain radioactive materials. Specifically, this software is used to collect temperature data from the furnace, packages, and ambient air to prepare and execute the thermal test specified in 10 CFR 71.73, “Thermal Test.” This software quality assurance (SQA) plan sets forth the guidelines, standards, and procedures that shall be used to provide SQA for PTP software applications. This is a living document that will be maintained for the lifecycle of the PTP program. The SQA plan follows the requirements set forth in ORNL Standards Based Management System (SBMS): Information Technology; Subject Area: Software Quality Assurance. When applicable to the requirements as described in ORNL SBMS, Software Quality Assurance, the software shall be listed in the ORNL Software Registration System (SRS). Exemptions to this SBMS are COTS and firmware that are not modified; spreadsheet applications and personal productivity tools that do not have a utility or safety application, research applications, legacy software, system software, vendor-supplied software used to interface with the vendor’s services, software used within the organization to facilitate processing or management of information, and software developed for applications not specific to the US Department of Energy (DOE).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Life Cycle Inventories and Data Gap Analysis for Rare Earth Elements: Neodymium and Dysprosium from Mining to Magnets

The United States demand for Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) magnets, produced from rare earth elements (REEs) such as (Nd) and Dysprosium (Dy), far exceeds its nascent domestic production capacity, rendering it reliant on vulnerable global supply chains dominated by China. To guide research and development investments in securing U.S. REE supply, defensible benchmark metrics across environmental, economic, and social dimensions are needed. In this study, we built globally-representative, process-based cradle-to-cradle life cycle inventories for Nd and Dy in NdFeB magnets lifecycles, encompassing primary material acquisition, beneficiation, smelting and refining, metal processing, specialty alloy and chemical transformation, subcomponent manufacturing, consumer application (use phase) and end-of-life management. We carried out detailed literature review, and applied process engineering principles to build industry-representative upscaled life cycle inventories for both metals. We used these models to conduct bottom-up literature review and gap analysis on existing literature, compilation of data sources for each life cycle stage (and transformations where necessary), and a preliminary technoeconomic analysis (TEA)/life cycle costing analysis (LCCA). Findings from this work emphasize the need for metal specific, representative REE LCIs to establish robust benchmarks for advancing sustainable REE technologies and guiding R&D in REE supply chains.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

A techno-economic assessment of carbon dioxide removal pathways via biochemical conversion of lignocellulose to biofuels and bioplastics

Biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS) is a promising pathway to mitigate climate change via large scale removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). We modeled several fermentation technologies, producing a variety of bioproducts from lignocellulosic feedstocks, to understand their levelized cost of CO 2 removal under multiple scenarios. Lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are accounted to provide cradle-to-grave estimates of carbon intensity (CI). We did not account for the avoided fossil CO 2 emissions from the use of biofuels in our CO 2 removal cost calculations, because avoided emissions do not contribute to CO 2 removal. The main products from the fermentation technologies we modeled include renewable diesel, ethanol, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and polyethylene (PE), with co-products including CO 2 , adipic acid, steam, and electricity. PE, depending on its end-of-life management, can serve as a form of biogenic carbon storage. PE has the potential to remove 1.2–1.5 tCO 2 per dry t-biomass, whereas biofuels have the potential to remove 0.3–0.9 tCO 2 per dry t-biomass, indicating that PE production is a more efficient method of carbon removal. We quantify costs of CO 2 removal to be $\$$60 – $\$$675 per metric tCO 2 removed across the various fermentation pathways. Under the scenarios analyzed, bioplastic production from lignocellulosic biomass is a more cost-effective route to CO 2 removal than biofuel production, with costs of CO 2 removal via bioplastics being 50–90 % lower than that of biofuels. Future research should explore the potential benefits and drawbacks of expanding bioplastic production for large-scale CO 2 removal.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

Circular Economy for Photovoltaics in Service of Energy Transition

The challenge of energy transition is immediate and immense; current projections target 75 TW of photovoltaics (PV) capacity by 2050. While any transition to renewable energy technology is preferable to the current fossil-based system, it is ideal to improve the sustainability of PV to minimize negative environmental and social impacts. Circular economy (CE) has been proposed as a method to improve the sustainability of PV, especially for emerging materials like perovskites. CE is a set of actions, principles, and systems which aim to design out waste and keep products and materials in use, to reduce environmental impacts and enable sustainable development. At the most basic level, CE is "reduce, reuse, recycle", the R-actions, in ranked order. CE of a PV technology can be metricized in a variety of ways, such as the Material Circularity Indicator (Smith and Jones, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2019) or recycling rates. Unfortunately, standard CE metrics have several shortcomings for measuring renewable energy technologies in the context of deployment for energy transition (Figge 2018, Saidani 2019): 1) Only measure mass flows; 2) De-prioritization of the use phase in favor of mass circularity when scoring; and 3) Tight focus on a single product scale The use phase and energy flows of PV are key to energy transition, and therefore need to be quantified. Additionally, correlating product-scale to system-scale is necessary for quantifying the environmental impacts of energy transition. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) can address some of these concerns, but also focuses on a single product scale and has trouble capturing the dynamics of system-scale energy transition, such as the interaction of module lifetime with manufacturing demands for energy transition deployment schedules. Therefore, we developed an open-source Python-based system dynamics model to quantify the mass, energy and carbon impacts of CE R-actions for PV technologies in the energy transition; PV in the CE (PV ICE) (Ovaitt & Mirletz 2021). The tool captures supply chains from material extraction through end of life, incorporating 5 circular end of life pathways. PV ICE takes in any evolving bill of materials, module properties and deployment schedule to support researchers and decision makers with data-backed insights. In this work, we quantify and compare proposed CE sustainable PV module designs and lifecycle management strategies, spanning currently commercialized technologies, government and industry technology targets, and several low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) emerging PV technologies, including perovskites. Our analyses capture the projected evolutions of lifetime, efficiency and material circularity of these PV technologies, as well as their material supply chains. Our analyses emphasize the importance of examining a suite of metrics to identify priorities and tradeoffs, and inform design or lifecycle management decisions holistically. Previous analyses have demonstrated the central importance of PV module lifetime to support energy transition while minimizing impacts. High levels of material circularity (>90%) enable minimizing lifecycle wastes, can reduce virgin material demands if paired with improving efficiency, but demonstrate tradeoffs in energy return on investment. In the fervor of new material and technology development, it is important to remember that CE is not the end goal; decarbonization and energy transition are the end goal. CE should be used in service to improve the sustainability of PV, and R-actions evaluated for their usefulness and efficacy to this end.

carbon

Integrated System Planning: Emerging Software Requirements in the Power Industry

Power system planning software remains fragmented across organizational boundaries, with specialized tools for capacity expansion, production cost modeling, power flow, and dynamic analysis operating on incompatible data models and assumptions. This article argues that the fragmentation is not merely a technical problem but a predictable consequence of Conway's law: software architectures mirror the departmental structures within which they are developed. Regulatory milestones like Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 888 formalized these divisions, but the roots trace back to the distinct engineering disciplines-mechanical, chemical, and electrical-that staffed generation and transmission planning departments in vertically integrated utilities. As the industry moves toward integrated system planning (ISP) that coordinates generation, transmission, and distribution investment decisions, the software ecosystem must evolve accordingly. We identify five categories of software requirements to enable this transition: coherent data inputs decoupled from individual applications, unified and extensible data schemas, modular component representations that support multiple abstraction levels, lifecycle management of planning datasets, and well-defined application programming interface (API) contracts that separate data exchange from algorithmic control. We examine how these requirements interact with three common workflow patterns-serial gate clearing, sequential multiapplication, and convergence oriented-and discuss the interface design principles each demands. We then outline a vision for platform-based planning architectures where specialized analytical services compose through standardized interfaces and where artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) tools augment decision support within a disciplined software infrastructure. The practices proposed here offer a path from today's siloed tool collections toward collaborative planning ecosystems capable of handling the complexity of modern power system transformation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

A Data Science and Machine Learning Platform Supporting Large Particle Accelerator Control and Diagnostics Applications Final Report: SBIR Initial Phase II DE-SC0022583

The Machine Learning Data Platform (MLDP) is a product providing full-stack support for data science, Machine Learning, and Artificial Intelligence (ML/AI) applications at particle accelerator and large experimental physics facilities. It supports ML/AI applications from front-end, high-speed acquisition of heterogeneous, time-series data, through data archiving and management, to back-end analysis. The MLDP embodies a “data-science ready” platform for data analysis and ML/AI applications in diagnosis, modelling, control, and optimization of these facilities. It provides data scientists and applications a consistent, datacentric interface to archive data standardizing implementation and deployment of ML/AI algorithms to different operations configurations within the same facility, or between facilities. Being an open-source, public-domain project, the MLDP is intended for broadest possible impact by increasing accessibility and minimizing the required expertise for installation and operation. The MLDP can also be deployed at user facilities for experimental data collection, archiving, and analysis. It is capable of acquisition and archiving of heterogeneous data from experimental equipment (e.g., images, arrays, structures, etc.) along with system hardware configurations (e.g., scalars, tables), control system process variables, and any metadata required for provenance. Thus, the MLDP can manage experimental data through its entire lifecycle, from acquisition and archiving, through analysis and investigation, to release and final publication.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS