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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

On Applying the Prognostic Performance Metrics

Prognostics performance evaluation has gained significant attention in the past few years. As prognostics technology matures and more sophisticated methods for prognostic uncertainty management are developed, a standardized methodology for performance evaluation becomes extremely important to guide improvement efforts in a constructive manner. This paper is in continuation of previous efforts where several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics were introduced and were shown to effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically, this paper presents a detailed discussion on how these metrics should be interpreted and used. Several shortcomings identified, while applying these metrics to a variety of real applications, are also summarized along with discussions that attempt to alleviate these problems. Further, these metrics have been enhanced to include the capability of incorporating probability distribution information from prognostic algorithms as opposed to evaluation based on point estimates only. Several methods have been suggested and guidelines have been provided to help choose one method over another based on probability distribution characteristics. These approaches also offer a convenient and intuitive visualization of algorithm performance with respect to some of these new metrics like prognostic horizon and alpha-lambda performance, and also quantify the corresponding performance while incorporating the uncertainty information.

Saxena, Abhinav↗
NASA NTRS2011

Prognostics of Power Mosfets Under Thermal Stress Accelerated Aging Using Data-Driven and Model-Based Methodologies

An approach for predicting remaining useful life of power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor) devices has been developed. Power MOSFETs are semiconductor switching devices that are instrumental in electronics equipment such as those used in operation and control of modern aircraft and spacecraft. The MOSFETs examined here were aged under thermal overstress in a controlled experiment and continuous performance degradation data were collected from the accelerated aging experiment. Dieattach degradation was determined to be the primary failure mode. The collected run-to-failure data were analyzed and it was revealed that ON-state resistance increased as die-attach degraded under high thermal stresses. Results from finite element simulation analysis support the observations from the experimental data. Data-driven and model based prognostics algorithms were investigated where ON-state resistance was used as the primary precursor of failure feature. A Gaussian process regression algorithm was explored as an example for a data-driven technique and an extended Kalman filter and a particle filter were used as examples for model-based techniques. Both methods were able to provide valid results. Prognostic performance metrics were employed to evaluate and compare the algorithms.

Electrolytic capacitors↗
NASA NTRS2009

Evaluating Algorithm Performance Metrics Tailored for Prognostics

Prognostics has taken a center stage in Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) where it is desired to estimate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of the system so that remedial measures may be taken in advance to avoid catastrophic events or unwanted downtimes. Validation of such predictions is an important but difficult proposition and a lack of appropriate evaluation methods renders prognostics meaningless. Evaluation methods currently used in the research community are not standardized and in many cases do not sufficiently assess key performance aspects expected out of a prognostics algorithm. In this paper we introduce several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics and show that they can effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically four algorithms namely; Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Polynomial Regression (PR) are compared. These algorithms vary in complexity and their ability to manage uncertainty around predicted estimates. Results show that the new metrics rank these algorithms in different manner and depending on the requirements and constraints suitable metrics may be chosen. Beyond these results, these metrics offer ideas about how metrics suitable to prognostics may be designed so that the evaluation procedure can be standardized. 1

Saxena, Abhinav↗
NASA NTRS2010

Metrics for Offline Evaluation of Prognostic Performance

Prognostic performance evaluation has gained significant attention in the past few years. Currently, prognostics concepts lack standard definitions and suffer from ambiguous and inconsistent interpretations. This lack of standards is in part due to the varied end-user requirements for different applications, time scales, available information, domain dynamics, etc. to name a few. The research community has used a variety of metrics largely based on convenience and their respective requirements. Very little attention has been focused on establishing a standardized approach to compare different efforts. This paper presents several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics that were recently introduced and were shown to effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically, this paper presents a detailed discussion on how these metrics should be interpreted and used. These metrics have the capability of incorporating probabilistic uncertainty estimates from prognostic algorithms. In addition to quantitative assessment they also offer a comprehensive visual perspective that can be used in designing the prognostic system. Several methods are suggested to customize these metrics for different applications. Guidelines are provided to help choose one method over another based on distribution characteristics. Various issues faced by prognostics and its performance evaluation are discussed followed by a formal notational framework to help standardize subsequent developments.

Saxena, Abhinav↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Practical Comparison of Data-Driven Prognostics Methods for Energy Systems

This study explores data-driven prognostics for nuclear power plant (NPP) condensers, focusing on tube fouling. We utilized the Asherah nuclear power plant simulator (ANS) to compare four methods: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM). By simulating various fouling scenarios in the ANS, we generated data with different degradation rates under transient operations. The models were trained and tested on these data, with performance evaluated visually and numerically including uncertainty assessment. The LSTM model excelled, exhibiting minimal prediction noise and the most accurate remaining useful life estimates across all degradation levels. Its ability to capture long-term dependencies and produce cleaner outputs makes it a strong candidate, although accurate training data across the entire component lifespan are crucial. The RF model emerged as a robust alternative, providing reliable predictions with high confidence. The FCNN and SVR models, while less effective overall, showed potential under specific conditions. FCNN offers a less complex alternative to LSTM and might benefit from larger datasets. SVR excels in precision when the quality of the training data is high. Furthermore, this study highlights the operational benefits of advanced prognostics in the energy sector and emphasizes the need for further research in NPP condenser health management through real-life experiments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2012

Model-based prognostics for batteries which estimates useful life and uses a probability density function

This invention develops a mathematical model to describe battery behavior during individual discharge cycles as well as over its cycle life. The basis for the form of the model has been linked to the internal processes of the battery and validated using experimental data. Effects of temperature and load current have also been incorporated into the model. Subsequently, the model has been used in a Particle Filtering framework to make predictions of remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles as well as for cycle life. The prediction performance was found to be satisfactory as measured by performance metrics customized for prognostics for a sample case. The work presented here provides initial steps towards a comprehensive health management solution for energy storage devices.

Saha, Bhaskar↗
NASA NTRS2016

Probabilistic Prognosis of Non-Planar Fatigue Crack Growth

Quantifying the uncertainty in model parameters for the purpose of damage prognosis can be accomplished utilizing Bayesian inference and damage diagnosis data from sources such as non-destructive evaluation or structural health monitoring. The number of samples required to solve the Bayesian inverse problem through common sampling techniques (e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo) renders high-fidelity finite element-based damage growth models unusable due to prohibitive computation times. However, these types of models are often the only option when attempting to model complex damage growth in real-world structures. Here, a recently developed high-fidelity crack growth model is used which, when compared to finite element-based modeling, has demonstrated reductions in computation times of three orders of magnitude through the use of surrogate models and machine learning. The model is flexible in that only the expensive computation of the crack driving forces is replaced by the surrogate models, leaving the remaining parameters accessible for uncertainty quantification. A probabilistic prognosis framework incorporating this model is developed and demonstrated for non-planar crack growth in a modified, edge-notched, aluminum tensile specimen. Predictions of remaining useful life are made over time for five updates of the damage diagnosis data, and prognostic metrics are utilized to evaluate the performance of the prognostic framework. Challenges specific to the probabilistic prognosis of non-planar fatigue crack growth are highlighted and discussed in the context of the experimental results.

Leser, Patrick E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Prognostics for Microgrid Components

Prognostics is the science of predicting future performance and potential failures based on targeted condition monitoring. Moving away from the traditional reliability centric view, prognostics aims at detecting and quantifying the time to impending failures. This advance warning provides the opportunity to take actions that can preserve uptime, reduce cost of damage, or extend the life of the component. The talk will focus on the concepts and basics of prognostics from the viewpoint of condition-based systems health management. Differences with other techniques used in systems health management and philosophies of prognostics used in other domains will be shown. Examples relevant to micro grid systems and subsystems will be used to illustrate various types of prediction scenarios and the resources it take to set up a desired prognostic system. Specifically, the implementation results for power storage and power semiconductor components will demonstrate specific solution approaches of prognostics. The role of constituent elements of prognostics, such as model, prediction algorithms, failure threshold, run-to-failure data, requirements and specifications, and post-prognostic reasoning will be explained. A discussion on performance evaluation and performance metrics will conclude the technical discussion followed by general comments on open research problems and challenges in prognostics.

Saxena, Abhinav↗
NASA NTRS2011

Model Adaptation for Prognostics in a Particle Filtering Framework

One of the key motivating factors for using particle filters for prognostics is the ability to include model parameters as part of the state vector to be estimated. This performs model adaptation in conjunction with state tracking, and thus, produces a tuned model that can used for long term predictions. This feature of particle filters works in most part due to the fact that they are not subject to the "curse of dimensionality", i.e. the exponential growth of computational complexity with state dimension. However, in practice, this property holds for "well-designed" particle filters only as dimensionality increases. This paper explores the notion of wellness of design in the context of predicting remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles of Li-ion batteries. Prognostic metrics are used to analyze the tradeoff between different model designs and prediction performance. Results demonstrate how sensitivity analysis may be used to arrive at a well-designed prognostic model that can take advantage of the model adaptation properties of a particle filter.

Saha, Bhaskar↗
NASA NTRS2013

Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR) Metric Report

This document outlines a set of metrics for evaluating the diagnostic and prognostic schemes developed for the Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR), a system-level reasoner that encompasses the multiple levels of large, complex systems such as those for aircraft and spacecraft. VIPR health managers are organized hierarchically and operate together to derive diagnostic and prognostic inferences from symptoms and conditions reported by a set of diagnostic and prognostic monitors. For layered reasoners such as VIPR, the overall performance cannot be evaluated by metrics solely directed toward timely detection and accuracy of estimation of the faults in individual components. Among other factors, overall vehicle reasoner performance is governed by the effectiveness of the communication schemes between monitors and reasoners in the architecture, and the ability to propagate and fuse relevant information to make accurate, consistent, and timely predictions at different levels of the reasoner hierarchy. We outline an extended set of diagnostic and prognostics metrics that can be broadly categorized as evaluation measures for diagnostic coverage, prognostic coverage, accuracy of inferences, latency in making inferences, computational cost, and sensitivity to different fault and degradation conditions. We report metrics from Monte Carlo experiments using two variations of an aircraft reference model that supported both flat and hierarchical reasoning.

Cornhill, Dennis↗
NASA NTRS2019

Health Management and Prognostics for Electric Aircraft Powertrain

W and c Any air borne vehicle needs incorporating safety as key parameter of measure, and inclusion of autonomy raises the critical need for safety under autonomous operations. Management of faults and component degradation is key as complexity in autonomous operations grow over the period of time. Therefore, in addition to basic operational requirements, an autonomous electric vehicle should be able to make accurate estimates of its current system health and take the correct decisions to complete its mission successfully. Real-time safety and state-awareness tools are therefore essential for the vehicle to be able to reach its destination in a safe and successful manner. The need for safety assurance and health management capabilities is particularly relevant for aircraft electric propulsion systems, which are relatively new and with limited historical to learn. They are critical systems requiring high power density along with reliability, resilience, efficient management of weight, and operational costs. A model- based fault diagnosis and prognostics approach of complex critical systems can successfully accomplish the safety and state awareness goal for such electric propulsion systems, enabling autonomous decision making capability for safe and efficient operation. To identify critical components in the system a Qualitative Bayesian approach using FMECA is implemented. This requires the assessment of some quantities representing the state of the electric unmanned aerial systems (e-UAS), as well as look-ahead forecasts of such states during the entire flight, presented in form of safety metrics (SM). In-service data and performance data gathered from degraded components sup- ports diagnostic and prognostic methods for these systems, but this data can be difficult to obtain as weight and packaging restrictions reduce redundancy and instrumentation on-board the vehicle. Therefore, an model-based framework should be capable or operating with limited data. In addition to data scarcity, the variability of such complex critical systems re- quires the model-based framework to reason in the presence of uncertainty, such as sensor noise, and modeling imperfections. Quantification of errors and uncertainties in the measured states and quantities is therefore a fundamental step for a precise estimation of such SMs; un-modeled uncertainty may result in erroneous state assessment and un- reliable predictions of future states of e-UAVs. Typical, centralized model-based schemes suffer from inherent disadvantages such as computational complexity, single point of failure, and scalability issues, and therefore may fail in such a complex scenario. This paper presents a methodology for developing a system level diagnostics and prognostics approach using a Qualitative Bayesian FMECA approach along with a formal uncertainty management framework for an e-UAS. In this work we demonstrate the efficacy of the framework to predict effects of sub-system level degradation on vehicle operation incorporating uncertainty management to predict future behavior under different operating conditions.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗
NASA NTRS2009

Benchmarking Diagnostic Algorithms on an Electrical Power System Testbed

Diagnostic algorithms (DAs) are key to enabling automated health management. These algorithms are designed to detect and isolate anomalies of either a component or the whole system based on observations received from sensors. In recent years a wide range of algorithms, both model-based and data-driven, have been developed to increase autonomy and improve system reliability and affordability. However, the lack of support to perform systematic benchmarking of these algorithms continues to create barriers for effective development and deployment of diagnostic technologies. In this paper, we present our efforts to benchmark a set of DAs on a common platform using a framework that was developed to evaluate and compare various performance metrics for diagnostic technologies. The diagnosed system is an electrical power system, namely the Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics Testbed (ADAPT) developed and located at the NASA Ames Research Center. The paper presents the fundamentals of the benchmarking framework, the ADAPT system, description of faults and data sets, the metrics used for evaluation, and an in-depth analysis of benchmarking results obtained from testing ten diagnostic algorithms on the ADAPT electrical power system testbed.

Kurtoglu, Tolga↗
NASA NTRS2018

On-Board Battery Monitoring and Prognostics for Electric-Propulsion Aircraft

The reliability of the propulsion system of an aircraft is paramount for the aircraft safety and hence the aircraft health must be monitored continuously. In contrast to fuel- operated aircraft, electric battery-operated propulsion system poses specific problems, such as, the remaining battery power does not linearly decrease and cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we describe a combined monitoring and prognostics architecture that can continuously monitor all components of the electric propulsion system with respect to safety and performance properties as well as state of charge and rest of useful life for the battery. Our system combines a detailed electrochemical battery model for Li-ion batteries with a powerful prognostics engine based upon an Unscented Kalman Filter with the R2U2 monitoring device, which provides efficient observers for metric temporal logic and Bayesian reasoning. R2U2 is a real-time, realizable, responsive, unobtrusive unit, which continuously monitors sensor readings, outputs of the prognostics engine, as well as the ight software status for safety, performance, and security properties. We illustrate our architecture with two case studies, one reporting actual ight tests with an X8+ octocopter and the other a software-in-the-loop simulation with an unmanned Edge 540 electric aircraft model.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗
NASA NTRS2019

Software and System Health Management with R2U2

R2U2 (Realizable, Responsive, Unobtrusive Unit) is a hardware-supported tool and framework for the real-time system and software health management of cyber-physical systems. R2U2 continuously monitors properties about safety, performance, and security of the vehicle and can perform diagnostic reasoning. Efficient observers for past-time and future-time Metric Temporal Logic, reasoners for Bayesian Networks, and model-based prognostics algorithms are major components of R2U2. Their combination makes it possible to design powerful models for system runtime monitoring, diagnostics, software health management, prognostics, and security monitoring. The R2U2 monitoring engine is designed for minimal runtime overhead and is available as Simulink block or as a software component for integration into the flight software stack, and enables R2U2 to monitor complex cyber-physical systems without any instrumentation of the flight software. In this presentation, we give an overview of R2U2 architecture and reasoning algorithms, present its features, and give a life demo of the tool.

Schumann, Johann↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Runtime Monitoring with R2U2 for Aircraft Systems with Neural Networks

R2U2 (Realizable, Responsive, Unobtrusive Unit) is a hardware-supported tool and framework for real-time system monitoring and software health management of cyber-physical systems. During system operation, R2U2 continuously monitors properties about safety, performance, and security of the vehicle and its vital components and can perform diagnostic reasoning. Efficient observers for past-time and future-time Metric Temporal Logic, fast reasoners for Bayesian Networks, and model-based prognostics algorithms are key components of R2U2 and designed for minimal computational footprint. R2U2 has been implemented in software supporting ROS, NASA's cFS/cFE, and Simulink and as an FPGA configuration. The synergistic combination of monitors and observers in R2U2 makes it possible to design powerful models for system runtime monitoring, diagnostics, software health management, prognostics, and security monitoring. In this presentation, I will give a detailed overview of the R2U2 architecture and its features and will discuss the application of R2U2 for safety-monitoring of a neural-network based autonomous centerline tracking system (ACT) for autonomous aircraft.

Runtime Monitoring↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Runtime Analysis with R2U2: A Tool Exhibition Report

We present R2U2 (Realizable, Responsive, Unobtrusive Unit), a hardware- supported tool and framework for the continuous monitoring of safetycritical and embedded cyber-physical systems.With the widespread advent of autonomous systems such as Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), satellites, rovers, and cars, real-time, on-board decision making requires unobtrusive monitoring of properties for safety, performance, security, and system health. R2U2 models combine past-time and future-time Metric Temporal Logic, “mission time” Linear Temporal Logic, probabilistic reasoning with Bayesian Networks, and modelbased prognostics. The R2U2 monitoring engine can be instantiated as a hardware solution, running on an FPGA, or as a software component. The FPGA realization enables R2U2 to monitor complex cyber-physical systems without any overhead or instrumentation of the flight software. In this tool exhibition report, we present R2U2 and demonstrate applications on system runtime monitoring, diagnostics, software health management, and security monitoring for a UAS. Our tool demonstration uses a hardware-based processor-in-the-loop “iron-bird” configuration.

Johann Martin Schumann↗
NASA NTRS2024

A High-Performance Computing Predictive GNSS Performance Monitor for Autonomous Air Vehicles in Urban Environments

This report offers analysis and design insights for leveraging High-Performance Computing (HPC) to predict line-of-sight (LOS) Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) availability in a city. This work is motivated by the emerging fields of Advanced and Urban Air Mobility (AAM/UAM), where regulatory authorities are seeking city-scale, meter-resolution risk forecasting in order to safely integrate new flight missions with existing urban life and infrastructure. This work addresses the technical challenge of efficiently computing urban GNSS satellite visibility to predict GNSS performance metrics under these requirements. We present a new HPC-optimized shadow casting algorithm variant as a ray-based approach to forecasting satellite visibility. We apply this algorithm variant in a software-defined prognostic service which generates a GNSS navigation risk-correlated map as a path planning-style potential field. We detail dominant computational burdens, viable simplifying assumptions, and different algorithmic implementations, intending to demonstrate a baseline of computation time needed by each stage in such a service. We conclude by analyzing the prototype service’s prediction accuracy compared to receiver data from Corpus Christi, Texas. This informs design trade-offs along the dimensions of hardware, computation time, and tolerable forecasting error (including proportions of false positives and false negatives).

GNSS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enabling Mission Flexibility to Battery Driven Deep Space Endeavors With Generalized Battery-Health-Monitoring Using Physics-Based and Data-Driven Reduced-Order Models

The needs and requirements for an electrochemical energy storage for deep space exploration is well explored. It is often understood that different mission sites and environmental conditions require different battery chemistries or technologies. Additionally, various engineering solutions are deployed to overcome specific chemical challenges. One often overlooked need is the “health” monitoring of an electrochemical storage system. The term generalized health monitoring, as envisioned in this work, refers to the monitoring of various aspects such as electrode health, electrolyte health, reaction pathway health, cooling system health, sensor health, and BMS health [1]. Generalized health monitoring allows mission leads, engineers, and scientists to incorporate flexibility in mission designs, make on-the-fly mission changes, and extend the duration of science missions. Moreover, it enables automation and data-driven decision-making without compromising safety and performance. Recently, our group developed a hierarchy of thermal reduced-order models (TROM) by combining a physics-based modeling approach and data-driven model reduction techniques applied to flight data [2]. The resulting TROMs were found to be not only accurate but also identifiable from the flight data. Consequently, the coefficient of variance of the model parameters is small over the course of hundreds of flights, allowing for monitoring the parameter evolution trajectories as the battery ages and degrades. These parameters constitute the metrics of the generalized health of a battery. Monitoring their evolution allows such models to be used for anomaly detection and prognostics, improving early detection of abnormal behavior and thus enabling timely maintenance, longer battery life, and enhanced battery safety. For this presentation, the practicality of the thermal model will be validated on a pack of 14cells under various topology configurations such as 1S14P, 2P7S, 7S2P, and 1P14S. It is well known that manufacturing and non-uniform aging lead to variability in the performance of a cell, which is exacerbated by cell balancing during active load. Additionally, in extreme scenarios, the paramount objective is to complete the mission, regardless of the stresses on the battery. Topology-induced balancing issues further stress the battery. The goal of this study is to determine if the noise (identifiability) in the reduced-order thermal model parameters is sensitive to topology, cell spacing, cooling strategy, and manufacturing or age variability. The variability in cells is considered by assuming a multimodal distribution for microscopic parameters of a cell (such as porosity, tortuosity, reaction kinetics, volumetric thermal conductivity, and volumetric heat capacity). The compounded effect of manufacturing variability, topological selection, cooling strategies, and cell balancing ages each cell in a battery differently. The study aims to clarify whether the challenge in extracting maximum information depends on the minimum number of sensors or models used for data extraction.

Automation↗