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At least 19 records

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NASA NTRS1994

Long-term variations in total solar irradiance

For more than a decade total solar irradiance has been monitored simultaneously from space by different satellites. The detection of total solar irradiance variations by satellite-based experiments during the past decade and a half has stimulated modeling efforts to help identify their causes and to provide estimates of irradiance data, using `proxy' indicators of solar activity, for time intervals when no satellite observations exist. In this paper total solar irradiance observed by the Nimbus-7/Earth Radiation Budget (ERB), Solar Maximum Mission (SMM)/Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) 1, and Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS)/ACRIM 2 radiometers is modeled with the Photometric Sunspot Index and the Mg II core-to-wing ratio. Since the formation of the Mg II line is very similar to that of the Ca II K line, the Mg core-to-wing ratio, derived from the irradiance observations of the Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements. It is shown that the observed changes in solar irradiance are underestimated by the proxy models at the time of maximum and during the beginning of the declining portion of solar cycle 22 similar to behavior just before the maximum of solar cycle 21. This disagreement between total irradiance observations and their model estimates is indicative of the fact that the underlying physical mechanism of the changes observed in the solar radiative output is not well-understood. Furthermore, the uncertainties in the proxy data used for irradiance modeling and the resulting limitation of the models should be taken into account, especially when the irradiance models are used for climatic studies.

Pap, Judit M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Evidence linking coronal mass ejections with interplanetary magnetic clouds

Using proxy data for the occurrence of those mass ejections from the solar corona which are directed earthward, we investigate the association between the post-1970 interplanetary magnetic clouds of Klein and Burlaga and coronal mass ejections. The evidence linking magnetic clouds following shocks with coronal mass ejections is striking; six of nine clouds observed at Earth were preceded an appropriate time earlier by meter-wave type II radio bursts indicative of coronal shock waves and coronal mass ejections occurring near central meridian. During the selected periods when no clouds were detected near Earth, the only type II bursts reported were associated with solar activity near the limbs. Where the proxy solar data to be sought are not so clearly suggested, that is, for clouds preceding interaction regions and clouds within cold magnetic enhancements, the evidence linking the clouds and coronal mass ejections is not as clear; proxy data usually suggest many candidate mass-ejection events for each cloud. Overall, the data are consistent with and support the hypothesis suggested by Klein and Burlaga that magnetic clouds observed with spacecraft at 1 AU are manifestations of solar coronal mass ejection transients.

Wilson, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Are interplanetary magnetic clouds manifestations of coronal transients at 1 AU?

Using proxy data for the occurrence of those mass ejections from the solar corona which are directed earthward, the association between the post-1970 interplanetary magnetic clouds of Klein and Burlaga (1982) and coronal mass ejections is investigated. The evidence linking magnetic clouds following shocks with coronal mass ejections is striking; six of nine clouds observed at earth were preceded an appropriate time earlier by meter-wave type II radio bursts indicative of coronal shock waves and coronal mass ejections occurring near central meridian. During the selected control periods when no clouds were detected near earth, the only type II bursts reported were associated with solar activity near the limbs. Where the proxy solar data to be sought are not so clearly suggested, that is, for clouds preceding interaction regions and clouds within cold magnetic enhancements, the evidence linking the clouds and coronal mass ejections is not as clear; proxy data usually suggest many candidate mass-ejection events for each cloud.

Wilson, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Calculating climate attractor dimension from delta O-18 records by the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm

The Grassberger-Procaccia method of calculating dimension from a time series is applied to 14 late Pleistocene delta O-18 records. A step-by-step sequence leading from data to the Grassberger-Procaccia dimension is outlined, and the problems encountered when dealing with observed (as opposed to theoretical) data are discussed; for the climatic proxy data these problems include situations where the time series is not very long, is noisy and/or smoothed, and is not sampled at a constant time interval. The delta O-18 records to be used are described, and the results are presented and compared with previously published dimension calculations. New dimension interpretations are assessed, and an example using a synthetic time series that illustrates the possible error due to inconsistencies in the time scale is analyzed.

Maasch, Kirk A.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Using Cross-Correlations of SEUs and AP8 as a Diagnostic Tool

Timely data on low altitude energetic protons is very important for predicting the effect on humans and satellites. Because of the high bioeffectivity of protons in tissue, determination of the geographical location of the south Atlantic anomally (SAA) would be especially useful for reducing the risk associated with extravehicular activities. Because the AP8 model was developed with an epoch several decades old, the location of the south Atlantic anomally is incorrectly positioned in the model. The lack of extensive present-epoch energetic proton data at low altitude has prevented the update of the AP8 proton model. While there are studies in progress which are attempting to update the model at low altitude by using the path-integrated column density of the residual atmosphere as an organizing parameter, success in those studies will be defined by consistency in organization of old data. New data will still be required to provide a good present epoch model. As an alternative to using instrumental measurements of proton fluxes, background effects, proxy data sets such as SEUs, anomalies in instruments, enhanced background in shielded sensors believed to be induced by high energy protons, and dosimeter data in which key parameters (energy, efficiency, geometric factor, shielding, etc.) are poorly known can also be used. This in situ data is not as precise as direct measurement of the proton flux as geometric factor and shielding etc. are not calibrated, but these factors do not affect determination of the location of the SAA.

Vampola, A. L.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A correction for the errors in ship reports of light winds

The errors in ship wind reports of light wings tend to significantly bias their mean. This occurs because wind speed is a scalar quantity that is constrained to zero or positive values. Therefore, observations tend to overestimate the light winds because of the one-sided distribution of errors, but the bias disappears under stronger winds. A method for removing this bias from ship data is presented. In particular, the method is applied to interpreting the ratios of wind speeds observed by ships to those obtained from tracking low level clouds. Corrected ratios allow low cloud speeds to serve as proxy data for surface based observations.

Hinton, B. B.↗

DOE OSTI2024

North‐East Peri‐Tethyan Water Column Deoxygenation and Euxinia at the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum

Abstract The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is associated with climatic change and biological turnover. It shares features with the Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs) of the Mesozoic, such as transient global warming and biogeochemical perturbations. However, the PETM experienced a more muted expansion of marine anoxia compared to the Mesozoic OAEs (especially OAE2), with geographically limited evidence for photic zone euxinia (PZE). We explore the extent and drivers of marine deoxygenation during the PETM using biomarkers for water column euxinia and anoxia as well as an intermediate complexity Earth system model (cGEnIE). These reveal that the water column in the North‐East Peri‐Tethys became anoxic, with euxinic conditions reaching the photic zone (PZE) during the PETM. Our model shows that euxinia developed due to a global increase in the ocean nutrient inventory with concomitant oxygen consumption, similar to findings for OAE2. The particularly strong regional response in the NE Peri‐Tethys appears to arise from a combination of global CO 2 ‐weathering forcing, regionally restricted circulation and upwelling of sulphidic thermocline waters. Unlike OAE2, anoxia and PZE do not become widespread in our PETM simulations, consistent with new and existing geochemical and biological proxy data. This globally muted response could result from reduced biogeochemical feedbacks to climate forcing relative to the mid‐Cretaceous climate. Our observations suggest that similar mechanisms operated in response to disparate Cenozoic (PETM) and Mesozoic (OAEs) transient global warming events, while also highlighting that background conditions are crucial in modulating the sensitivity of Earth's system to them.

Behrooz, L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Classification Strategy to Improve Streamflow Estimates in Diverse River Basins in the Colorado River Basin

Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) is significantly altered by human activities including land use/cover alterations, reservoir operation, irrigation, and water exports. Climate is also highly varied across the CRB which contains snowpack-dominated watersheds and arid, precipitation-dominated basins. Recently, machine learning methods have improved the generalizability and accuracy of streamflow models. Previous successes with LSTM modeling have primarily focused on unimpacted basins, and few studies have included human impacted systems in either regional or single-basin modeling. We demonstrate that the diverse hydrological behavior of river basins in the CRB are too difficult to model with a single, regional model. We propose a method to delineate catchments into categories based on the level of predictability, hydrological characteristics, and the level of human influence. Lastly, we model streamflow in each category with climate and anthropogenic proxy data sets and use feature importance methods to assess whether model performance improves with additional relevant data. Overall, land use cover data at a low temporal resolution was not sufficient to capture the irregular patterns of reservoir releases, demonstrating the importance of having high-resolution reservoir release data sets at a global scale. On the other hand, the classification approach reduced the complexity of the data and has the potential to improve streamflow forecasts in human-altered regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1980

The corona and heliosphere

The eleven-year solar cycle is an especially appropriate period over which to study the solar output and its variation, because during this cycle most of the important types of solar variability (many characterized by periods shorter than eleven years) are manifested. Studies of solar variability over a solar cycle will improve understanding of solar structure and of the generation of the solar wind, and this improved understanding can be useful in the related studies of stellar structure and stellar winds, since stellar observations are necessarily less detailed and sophisticated than are solar observations. A particularly significant benefit that will accrue from a thorough study of the solar atmosphere and its variability over the next solar cycle is a great enhancement in the usefulness of so-called 'proxy' data in studying longer term solar variations and their terrestrial implication.

Holzer, T.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Solar irradiance variability from modern measurements

Direct measurements from satellites of the solar 'constant' (the total irradiance at mean sun-earth distance) during more than ten years show variations over time scales from minutes to years and decades. At high frequencies, solar oscillations contribute to the variance. The most important influences are related to solar activity: during the passage of active regions on the solar disk (sunspots and faculae) changes of a few 0.1 percent lasting for several days are observed. The effects of spots can be well reproduced by the projected sunspot index, whereas the influence of faculae have to be modeled from proxy data like the Ca-K plage index or the He I index. Long-term trends are detected which are connected to the 11-yr solar activity cycle.

Froehlich, C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Geodynamic contributions to global climatic change

Orbital and rotational variations perturb the latitudinal and seasonal pattern of incident solar radiation, producing major climatic change on time scales of 10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) years. The orbital variations are oblivious to internal structure and processes, but the rotational variations are not. A program of investigation whose objective would be to explore and quantify three aspects of orbital, rotational, and climatic interactions is described. An important premise of this investigation is the synergism between geodynamics and paleoclimate. Better geophysical models of precessional dynamics are needed in order to accurately reconstruct the radiative input to climate models. Some of the paleoclimate proxy records contain information relevant to solid Earth processes, on time scales which are difficult to constrain otherwise. Specific mechanisms which will be addressed include: (1) climatic consequences of deglacial polar motion; and (2) precessional and climatic consequences of glacially induced perturbations in the gravitational oblateness and partial decoupling of the mantle and core. The approach entails constructing theoretical models of the rotational, deformational, radiative, and climatic response of the Earth to known orbital perturbations, and comparing these with extensive records of paleoclimate proxy data. Several of the mechanisms of interest may participate in previously unrecognized feed-back loops in the climate dynamics system. A new algorithm for estimating climatically diagnostic locations and seasons from the paleoclimate time series is proposed.

Bills, Bruce G.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Annual, orbital, and enigmatic variations in tropical oceanography recorded by the Equatorial Atlantic amplifier

Equatorial Atlantic surface waters respond directly to changes in zonal and meridional lower tropospheric winds forced by annual insolation. This mechanism has its maximum effect along the equatorial wave guide centered on 10 deg W. The result is to amplify even subtle tropical climate changes such that they are recorded by marked amplitude changes in the proxy signals. Model realizations, NCAR AGCM and OGCM for 0 Ka and 126 Ka (January and July), and paleoceanographic proxy data show that these winds are also forced by insolation changes at the orbital periods of precession and obliquity. Perhelion in boreal summer produces a strengthened monsoon, e.g., increase meridional and decrease zonal wind stress. This reduces oceanic Ekman divergence and thermocline/nutricline shallowing. The result, in the equatorial Atlantic, is reduced primary productivity and higher euphotic zone temperatures; vice versa for perihelion in boreal winter. Perihelion is controlled by precession. Thus, the dominant period in spectra from a stacked SST record (0-252 Ka BP) at the site of the equatorial Atlantic amplifier is 23 Ky (53 percent of the total variance). This precessional period is coherent (k = 0.920) and in phase with boreal summer insolation. Oscillations of shorter period are present in records from cores sited beneath the amplifier region. These occur between 12.5 and 74.5 Ka BP, when eccentricity modulation of precession is at a minimum. Within this time interval there are 21 cycles with mean periods of 3.0 plus or minus 0.5 Ky. Similar periods have been documented from high latitude regions, e.g., Greenland ice cores from Camp Century. The Camp Century signal in this same time interval contains 21 cycles. A subjective correlation was made between the Camp Century and the equatorial records; the signals were statistically similar, r = 0.722 and k = 0.960.

Mcintyre, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS1992

Sources of uncertainty in direct seismological measurements of the solar helium abundance

The methods by which Dappen et al. (1988, 1990, 1991) and Dziembowski et al. (1990, 1991, 1992) recently obtained discrepant estimates of the helium abundance in the solar convection zone are compared. The aim of the investigation reported in this paper is to identify the main source of the discrepancy. Using as proxy data eigenfrequencies of a set of modes of a theoretical solar model, computed with the same physics as were the frequencies of a reference model with which these data are compared, the two methods yield similar results. Thus we ascertain that the principal source of the discrepancy is not in the inversions themselves, which yield essentially a measure of the variation of the adiabatic exponent gamma of the material in the He II ionization zone. Instead it is in the approximations adopted in the treatment of heavy elements in the equation of state used to relate the variation of gamma to chemical composition. We obtain acceptably consistent results when inverting solar data by two methods using the same equation of state. We attempt to identify the likely residual sources of uncertainty.

Kosovichev, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Solar wind variations in the 60-100 year period range: A review

The evidence for and against the reality of a solar wind variation in the period range of 60-100 years is reexamined. Six data sets are reviewed; sunspot numbers, geomagnetic variations, two auroral data sets and two (14)C data sets. These data are proxies for several different aspects of the solar wind and the presence or absence of 60-100 year cyclic behavior in a particular data set does not necessarily imply the presence or absence of this variation in other sets. It was concluded that two different analyses of proxy data for a particular characteristic of the heliospheric solar wind yielded conflicting results. This conflict can be resolved only by future research. It is also definitely confirmed that proxy data for the solar wind in the ecliptic at 1 A.U. undergo a periodic variation with a period of approximately 87 years. The average amplitude and phase of this variation as seen in eleven cycles of proxy data are presented.

Feynman, J.↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Proxy Method to Bridge LCA Data Gaps Using Automated Material Classification and Probabilistic Under-Specification

Life cycle assessments (LCAs) are essential for understanding the environmental impacts of material production. However, gaps in life cycle inventory (LCI) data for material and chemical inputs present a key challenge for LCA practitioners, especially in the early design stages. Strategies for filling in these gaps require additional time and expertise, which can hinder the LCA’s completion. This study combined automatic material classification and probabilistic under-specification to create a time-efficient method to fill material LCI data gaps. To illustrate the proposed method, proxy environmental impact distributions were generated using publicly available material LCI data classified into the ChemOnt chemical taxonomy using the open-source chemical classification software ClassyFire. Input materials with data gaps were then classified into the same taxonomy, where proxy environmental impact values could be selected from the available distributions to quickly fill in any data gaps. Although these methods were applied to classify material production processes available in the Federal LCA Commons and Ecoinvent databases, they can be applied to any LCA database. This study shows that classifying materials by their chemical structure produces taxonomies with increased granularity relative to industrial classification, improving the ability of under-specified proxy data to be used for differentiating the environmental impacts of competing designs.

biological databases↗

NASA NTRS1993

Long-Term Variations in Total Solar Irradiance

For more than a decade total solar irradiance has been monitored simultaneously from space by different satellites. The detection of total solar irradiance variations by satellite -based experiments during the past decade and a half has stimulated modeling efforts to help identify their causes and to provide estimates of irradiance data, using "proxy" indicators of solar activity, for the time intervals when no satellite observations exist. In this paper the variations in total solar irradiance observed by the Nimbus-7/ERB, SMM/ACRIM I, and UARS/ACRIM II radiometers are compared to the changes in sunspot darkening and the enhanced emission of bright magnetic elements, including faculae and the magnetic network. Quantitative indices of sunspot darkening have been derived from the area and position of sunspots published in the NOAA-WDC Solar Geophysical Data catalog. The Mg core-to-wing ratio, derived from the irradiance observations of Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements. It has been found that a model, calculated from the Mg II core-to-wing ratio underestimates the observed total irradiance at the time of maximum and during the beginning of the declining portion of solar cycle 22 similar in behaviour just before the maximum of solar cycle 21. Similar results are found using He-line equivalent width and 10.7 cm radio flux which indicates that the current irradiance models are in general not capable to reproducing the changes observed in total solar irradiance.

total↗

NASA NTRS1990

A Solar-luminosity Model and Climate

Although the mechanisms of climatic change are not completely understood, the potential causes include changes in the Sun's luminosity. Solar activity in the form of sunspots, flares, proton events, and radiation fluctuations has displayed periodic tendencies. Two types of proxy climatic data that can be related to periodic solar activity are varved geologic formations and freshwater diatom deposits. A model for solar luminosity was developed by using the geometric progression of harmonic cycles that is evident in solar and geophysical data. The model assumes that variation in global energy input is a result of many periods of individual solar-luminosity variations. The 0.1-percent variation of the solar constant measured during the last sunspot cycle provided the basis for determining the amplitude of each luminosity cycle. Model output is a summation of the amplitudes of each cycle of a geometric progression of harmonic sine waves that are referenced to the 11-year average solar cycle. When the last eight cycles in Emiliani's oxygen-18 variations from deep-sea cores were standardized to the average length of glaciations during the Pleistocene (88,000 years), correlation coefficients with the model output ranged from 0.48 to 0.76. In order to calibrate the model to real time, model output was graphically compared to indirect records of glacial advances and retreats during the last 24,000 years and with sea-level rises during the Holocene. Carbon-14 production during the last millenium and elevations of the Great Salt Lake for the last 140 years demonstrate significant correlations with modeled luminosity. Major solar flares during the last 90 years match well with the time-calibrated model.

Perry, Charles A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

SOLERS22 Working Group 1 Report

SOLERS22 Working Group 1 had extensive discussions of current and future space and ground-based observations of total solar irradiance as well as near-UV, visible, and infrared irradiances during the 1-day SOLERS22 meeting held at the IAU Colloquium No. 143 on June 25, 1993. The list of WG1 members attending this session is given at the end of this report.

solar irradiance proxy data faculae SOLERS22 irrad↗