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At least 19 records

Remote Sensing Detection of Growing Season Freeze-Induced Defoliation of Montane Quaking Aspen (Populus tremuloides) in Southern Utah, USA

Growing season freeze events pose a threat to quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), leading to canopy defoliation, reduced vigor, and increased mortality, especially for declining montane populations western North America. Detecting the spatial distribution and progression of this damage is challenging due to limited in situ observations in this region. This study represents the first attempt to comprehensively resolve the spatial extent of freeze-induced aspen canopy damage in southern Utah using multispectral remote sensing data. We developed an approach to detect the spatial and temporal dynamics of freeze-damaged aspen stands, focusing on a freeze event from 8–9 June 2020 in southern Utah. By integrating medium- (~250 to 500 m) and high-resolution (~10 m) satellite data, we employed the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to compare post-freeze conditions with historical norms and pre-freeze conditions. Our analysis revealed NDVI reductions of 0.10 to 0.40 from pre-freeze values and a second flush recovery. We introduced a pixel-based method to evaluate freeze vulnerability, establishing a strong correlation (R values 0.78 to 0.82) between the onset of the first flush (NDVI > 0.50) and the accumulation of 100 growing degree days (GDD). These methods support the potential for retrospective assessments, proactive forest monitoring, and forecasting future risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Why Firn Quakes

Snow dampens sounds, but anecdotal reports concisely describe audible propagating collapse events—firnquakes—in Antarctic and Arctic snowfields. We propose combining granular and continuum mechanics to form a testable theory for conditioning, triggering, and propagation of firnquakes consistent with scarce data. A central condition for collapse events is unconsolidated firn at depth. As firn grains compact, stresses are transmitted along force chains which carry the overburden and transition into a continuous medium by pressure sintering. This granular legacy creates solid-like supports of denser layers that keep the material below unconsolidated. Dynamic amplification triggers local brittle failure of the supports, which induces a cascade of collapse propagation. Using bulk density from ice cores as proxy for stiffness, we find the flexural wave speed by collapsing supports matches the recorded firnquake velocities on the order of 100 m/s. Our theory is to be tested in firn sheets and other compacting granular materials.

Voigtländer, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗

The elastic energy and character of quakes in solid stars and planets

The quadrupolar mechanical energy of a rotating axially symmetric solid planet (with or without a liquid interior) is calculated using methods previously developed for neutron stars in which an elastic reference tensor is introduced to describe the build-up of elastic energy in the star. The basic parameters of the theory (the gravitational energy A and elastic energy B) depend upon the internal structure of the planet and may be calculated from specific planetary models. Explicit expressions are obtained for the Love numbers, and for the planetary wobble frequency. The theory provides a simple relationship between changes in shape or axis of figure of the planet and elastic energy release. The theory is extended to describe the Earth by taking into account isostasy, triaxiality and the observed lithospheric configuration.

Pines, D.↗

New dimension analyses with error analysis for quaking aspen and black spruce

Dimension analysis for black spruce in wetland stands and trembling aspen are reported, including new approaches in error analysis. Biomass estimates for sacrificed trees have standard errors of 1 to 3%; standard errors for leaf areas are 10 to 20%. Bole biomass estimation accounts for most of the error for biomass, while estimation of branch characteristics and area/weight ratios accounts for the leaf area error. Error analysis provides insight for cost effective design of future analyses. Predictive equations for biomass and leaf area, with empirically derived estimators of prediction error, are given. Systematic prediction errors for small aspen trees and for leaf area of spruce from different site-types suggest a need for different predictive models within species. Predictive equations are compared with published equations; significant differences may be due to species responses to regional or site differences. Proportional contributions of component biomass in aspen change in ways related to tree size and stand development. Spruce maintains comparatively constant proportions with size, but shows changes corresponding to site. This suggests greater morphological plasticity of aspen and significance for spruce of nutrient conditions.

Woods, K. D.↗

Field and Geochemical Study of Table Legs Butte and Quaking Aspen Butte, Eastern Snake River Plain, Idaho: An Analog to the Morphology of Small Shield Volcanoes on Mars

Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) data allows insight to Martian features in great detail, revealing numerous small shields in the Tempe region, consisting of low profiles and a prominent summit caps . Terrestrial examples of this shield morphology are found on the Eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), Idaho. This plains-style volcanism [2] allows an analog to Martian volcanism based on topographic manifestations of volcanic processes . Recent studies link the slope and morphology of Martian volcanoes to eruptive process and style . The ESRP, a 400km long, 100km wide depression, is host to hundreds of tholeiitic basalt shields, which have low-profiles built up over short eruptive periods of a few months or years . Many of these smaller scale shields (basal diameters rarely exceed 5km) display morphology similar to the volcanoes in the Tempe region of Mars . Morphological variations within these tholeiitic shields are beautifully illustrated in their profiles.

Brady, S. M.↗

Improving UAVSAR results with GPS, radiometry, and QUAKES topographic imager

UAVSAR is NASA’s airborne interferometricsynthetic aperture radar (InSAR) platform. The instrument has been used to detect deformation from earthquakes, volcanoes, oil pumping, landslides, water withdrawal, landfill compaction, and glaciers. It has been used to detect scars from wildfires and damage from debris flows. The instrument performs well for large changes or for local small changes. Determining subtle changes over large areas requires improved instrumentation and processing. We are working to improve the utility of UAVSAR by including GPS station position results in the processing chain, and adding a topographic imager to improve estimates of topography, 3D change, and damage. We are also exploring the benefit of microwave radiometry to mitigating error from water vapor path delay. A goal is to determine 3D tectonic deformation to millimeters per year at ~100 km plate boundary scales and to understand surface processes in areas of decorrelated radar imagery.

Muellerschoen, Ronald↗

Time Series Foundation Models and Deep Learning Architectures for Earthquake Temporal and Spatial Nowcasting

Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities, remains crucial for reducing casualties. This multifaceted challenge has recently gained attention within the deep learning domain, facilitated by the availability of extensive earthquake datasets. Despite significant advancements, the existing literature on earthquake nowcasting lacks comprehensive evaluations of pre-trained foundation models and modern deep learning architectures; each focuses on a different aspect of data, such as spatial relationships, temporal patterns, and multi-scale dependencies. This paper addresses the mentioned gap by analyzing different architectures and introducing two innovative approaches called Multi Foundation Quake and GNNCoder. We formulate earthquake nowcasting as a time series forecasting problem for the next 14 days within 0.1-degree spatial bins in Southern California. Earthquake time series are generated using the logarithm energy released by quakes, spanning 1986 to 2024. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that our introduced models outperform other custom architectures by effectively capturing temporal-spatial relationships inherent in seismic data. The performance of existing foundation models varies significantly based on the pre-training datasets, emphasizing the need for careful dataset selection. However, we introduce a novel method, Multi Foundation Quake, that achieves the best overall performance by combining a bespoke pattern with Foundation model results handled as auxiliary streams.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Earthquakes - on the moon

Information obtained with the Apollo lunar seismic stations is discussed. The four types of natural seismic sources that have been identified are described, viz., thermal moonquakes, deep moonquakes, meteoroid impacts, and shallow moonquakes. It is suggested that: (1) the thermal quakes represent the slow cracking and movement of surface rocks; (2) the deep quakes are induced by the tide-generating force of the earth's gravity; (3) the meteoroids responsible for most of the observed impacts are in the mass range from 1 to 100 kg and are clustered in groups near the earth's orbit; and (4) the shallow quakes are similar to intraplate earthquakes and indicate that the moon is as seismically active as the interior regions of the earth's tectonic plates. The structure of the lunar interior as inferred from seismic signals due to both the last three natural sources and 'artificial' impacts of used spacecraft is examined in detail.

Nakamura, Y.↗

Quantum crystals in neutron stars

Using the many-body techniques appropriate for quantum crystals it is shown that the deep interior of a neutron star is most likely an orderly arrangement of neutrons, protons and hyperons forming a solid. It is shown that a liquid or gas arrangement would produce higher energy. If so, a neutron star can be viewed as two solids (crust and core) permeated by a layer of ordinary or (perhaps) superfluid liquid. Astronomical evidence is in favor of such a structure: the sudden jumps in the periods of the Crab and Vela pulsars that differ by a factor of about 100 can be easily explained by the star-quake model. If the Crab is less massive than Vela (i.e., if it is not dense enough to have a solid core), the star-quakes take place in the crust whereas for Vela they occur in the core.

Canuto, V.↗

Lunar seismicity and tectonics

Results are presented for an analysis of all moonquake data obtained by the Apollo seismic stations during the period from November 1969 to May 1974 and a preliminary analysis of critical data obtained in the interval from May 1974 to May 1975. More accurate locations are found for previously located moonquakes, and additional sources are located. Consideration is given to the sources of natural seismic signals, lunar seismic activity, moonquake periodicities, tidal periodicities in moonquake activity, hypocentral locations and occurrence characteristics of deep and shallow moonquakes, lunar tidal control over moonquakes, lunar tectonism, the locations of moonquake belts, and the dynamics of the lunar interior. It is concluded that: (1) moonquakes are distributed in several major belts of global extent that coincide with regions of the youngest and most intense volcanic and tectonic activity; (2) lunar tides control both the small quakes occurring at great depth and the larger quakes occurring near the surface; (3) the moon has a much thicker lithosphere than earth; (4) a single tectonic mechanism may account for all lunar seismic activity; and (5) lunar tidal stresses are an efficient triggering mechanism for moonquakes.

Lammlein, D. R.↗

Satellite IR Thermal Measurements Prior to the September 2004 Earthquakes in Central California

We present and discuss observed variations in thermal transients and radiation fields prior to the earthquakes of September 18 near Bodie (M5.5) and September 28,2004 near Parkfield(M6.0) in California. Previous analysis of earthquake events have indicated the presence of a thermal anomaly, where temperatures increased or did not return to its usual nighttime value. The procedures used in our work is to analyze weather satellite data taken at night and to record the general condition where the ground cools after sunset. Two days before the Bodie earthquake lower temperature radiation was observed by the NOAA/AVHRR satellite. This occurred when the entire region was relatively cloud-free. IR land surface nighttime temperature from the MODIS instrument rose to +4 C in a 100 km radius around the Bodie epicenter. The thermal transient field recorded by MODIS in the vicinity of Parkfield, also with a cloud free environment, was around +l C and it is significantly smaller than the Parkfield epicenter, however, for that period showed a steady increase 4 days prior to the earthquake and a significant drop of the night before the quake. Geosynchronous weather satellite thermal IR measurements taken every half hour from sunset to dawn, were also recorded for 10 days prior to the Parkfield event and 5 days after as well as the day of the quake. To establish a baseline we also obtained GOES data for the same Julian sets were then used to systematically observe and record any thermal anomaly prior to the events that deviated from the baseline. Our recent results support the hypothesis of a possible relationship between an thermodynamic processes produced by increasing tectonic stress in the Earth's crust and a subsequent electro-chemical interaction between this crust and the atmosphere/ionosphere.

Ouzounov, D.↗

Satellite Infrared Radiation Measurements Prior to the Major Earthquakes

This work describes our search for a relationship between tectonic stresses and increases in mid-infrared (IR) flux as part of a possible ensemble of electromagnetic (EM) phenomena that may be related to earthquake activity. We present and &scuss observed variations in thermal transients and radiation fields prior to the earthquakes of Jan 22, 2003 Colima (M6.7) Mexico, Sept. 28 .2004 near Parkfield (M6.0) in California and Northern Sumatra (M8.5) Dec. 26,2004. Previous analysis of earthquake events has indicated the presence of an IR anomaly, where temperatures increased or did not return to its usual nighttime value. Our procedures analyze nighttime satellite data that records the general condtion of the ground after sunset. We have found from the MODIS instrument data that five days before the Colima earthquake the IR land surface nighttime temperature rose up to +4 degrees C in a 100 km radius around the epicenter. The IR transient field recorded by MODIS in the vicinity of Parkfield, also with a cloud free environment, was around +1 degree C and is significantly smaller than the IR anomaly around the Colima epicenter. Ground surface temperatures near the Parkfield epicenter four days prior to the earthquake show steady increase. However, on the night preceding the quake, a significant drop in relative humidity was indicated, process similar to those register prior to the Colima event. Recent analyses of continuous ongoing long- wavelength Earth radiation (OLR) indicate significant and anomalous variability prior to some earthquakes. The cause of these anomalies is not well understood but could be the result of a triggering by an interaction between the lithosphere-hydrosphere and atmospheric related to changes in the near surface electrical field and/or gas composition prior to the earthquake. The OLR anomaly usually covers large areas surrounding the main epicenter. We have found strong anomalies signal (two sigma) along the epicentral area signals on Dec 21, five days prior to the Northern Sumatra quake compared to the reference field for December 2001-2004 periods. Our recent results support the hypothesis of a possible relationship between a thermodynamic processes produced by increasing tectonic stress in the Earth's crust and a subsequent electro-chemical interaction between this crust and the atmosphere/ionosphere.

Ouzounov, Dimitar↗

Using GPS to Detect Imminent Tsunamis

A promising method of detecting imminent tsunamis and estimating their destructive potential involves the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) data in addition to seismic data. Application of the method is expected to increase the reliability of global tsunami-warning systems, making it possible to save lives while reducing the incidence of false alarms. Tsunamis kill people every year. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed about 230,000 people. The magnitude of an earthquake is not always a reliable indication of the destructive potential of a tsunami. The 2004 Indian Ocean quake generated a huge tsunami, while the 2005 Nias (Indonesia) quake did not, even though both were initially estimated to be of the similar magnitude. Between 2005 and 2007, five false tsunami alarms were issued worldwide. Such alarms result in negative societal and economic effects. GPS stations can detect ground motions of earthquakes in real time, as frequently as every few seconds. In the present method, the epicenter of an earthquake is located by use of data from seismometers, then data from coastal GPS stations near the epicenter are used to infer sea-floor displacements that precede a tsunami. The displacement data are used in conjunction with local topographical data and an advanced theory to quantify the destructive potential of a tsunami on a new tsunami scale, based on the GPS-derived tsunami energy, much like the Richter Scale used for earthquakes. An important element of the derivation of the advanced theory was recognition that horizontal sea-floor motions contribute much more to generation of tsunamis than previously believed. The method produces a reliable estimate of the destructive potential of a tsunami within minutes typically, well before the tsunami reaches coastal areas. The viability of the method was demonstrated in computational tests in which the method yielded accurate representations of three historical tsunamis for which well-documented ground-motion measurements were available. Development of a global tsunami-warning system utilizing an expanded network of coastal GPS stations was under consideration at the time of reporting the information for this article.

Song, Y. Tony↗