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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Departure Queue Prediction for Strategic and Tactical Surface Scheduler Integration

A departure metering concept to be demonstrated at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) will integrate strategic and tactical surface scheduling components to enable the respective collaborative decision making and improved efficiency benefits these two methods of scheduling provide. This study analyzes the effect of tactical scheduling on strategic scheduler predictability. Strategic queue predictions and target gate pushback times to achieve a desired queue length are compared between fast time simulations of CLT surface operations with and without tactical scheduling. The use of variable departure rates as a strategic scheduler input was shown to substantially improve queue predictions over static departure rates. With target queue length calibration, the strategic scheduler can be tuned to produce average delays within one minute of the tactical scheduler. However, root mean square differences between strategic and tactical delays were between 12 and 15 minutes due to the different methods the strategic and tactical schedulers use to predict takeoff times and generate gate pushback clearances. This demonstrates how difficult it is for the strategic scheduler to predict tactical scheduler assigned gate delays on an individual flight basis as the tactical scheduler adjusts departure sequence to accommodate arrival interactions. Strategic/tactical scheduler compatibility may be improved by providing more arrival information to the strategic scheduler and stabilizing tactical scheduler changes to runway sequence in response to arrivals.

departure scheduling↗
NASA NTRS2001

Resource Selection Using Execution and Queue Wait Time Predictions

We developed techniques to predict application execution times for instance-based learning with an average error of 33% of average run time. We developed techniques to predict queue wait times that included a simulation of scheduling algorithms and execution time predictions. We implemented these techniques for the NAS Origin cluster.

Smith, Warren↗
NASA NTRS2002

Resource Selection Using Execution and Queue Wait Time Predictions

Computational grids provide users with many possible places to execute their applications. We wish to help users select where to run their applications by providing predictions of the execution times of applications on space shared parallel computers and predictions of when scheduling systems for such parallel computers will start applications. Our predictions are based on instance based learning techniques and simulations of scheduling algorithms. We find that our execution time prediction techniques have an average error of 37 percent of the execution times for trace data recorded from SGI Origins at NASA Ames Research Center and that this error is 67 percent lower than the error of user estimates. We also find that the error when predicting how long applications will wait in scheduling queues is 95 percent of mean queue wait times when using our execution time predictions and this is 57 percent lower than if we use user execution time estimates.

Warren, Smith↗
NASA NTRS2002

Resource Selection Using Execution and Queue Wait Time Predictions

Computational grids provide users with many possible places to execute their applications. We wish to help users select where to run their applications by providing predictions of the execution times of applications on space shared parallel computers and predictions of when scheduling systems for such parallel computers will start applications. Our predictions are based on instance based learning techniques and simulations of scheduling algorithms. We find that our execution time prediction techniques have an average error of 37 percent of the execution times for trace data recorded from SGI Origins at NASA Ames Research Center and that this error is 67 percent lower than the error of user estimates. We also find that the error when predicting how long applications will wait in scheduling queues is 95 percent of mean queue wait times when using our execution time predictions and this is 57 percent lower than if we use user execution time estimates.

Smith, Warren↗
NASA NTRS1975

Cost performance satellite design using queueing theory

The Poisson arrival model was used to determine the effects of limiting the number of channels for a disaster warning satellite. State probabilities and delay probabilities were estimated for several values of the number of channels (C) for arrival and service rates obtained from disaster warnings issued by the National Weather Service. The results predicted by the queueing model were compared with the results of a digital computer simulation.

Hein, G. F.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Computer architecture evaluation for structural dynamics computations: Project summary

The intent of the proposed effort is the examination of the impact of the elements of parallel architectures on the performance realized in a parallel computation. To this end, three major projects are developed: a language for the expression of high level parallelism, a statistical technique for the synthesis of multicomputer interconnection networks based upon performance prediction, and a queueing model for the analysis of shared memory hierarchies.

Standley, Hilda M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Performance prediction of concurrent systems

Concurrent systems are computers that use multiple processors to solve a single problem. A means to predict the application performance on these systems is a useful tool in many areas of concurrent system research. A computationally efficient and accurate method to predict performance for a class of parallel computations on concurrent systems is described. A parallel computation is modeled as a task system with precedence relationships expressed as a series parallel directed acyclic graph. Resources in concurrent systems are modeled as service centers in queueing network models. Using these two models as inputs, the method outputs predictions of both the time to complete the computation and the concurrent system utilization. The algorithm used is based on the approximate Mean Value Analysis in queueing network modeling with extensions to model concurrency in the computation. The new algorithm was validated against both detailed simulation and actual execution on a commercial multiprocessor.

Mak, Victor W. K.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Parallel discrete-event simulation of FCFS stochastic queueing networks

Physical systems are inherently parallel. Intuition suggests that simulations of these systems may be amenable to parallel execution. The parallel execution of a discrete-event simulation requires careful synchronization of processes in order to ensure the execution's correctness; this synchronization can degrade performance. Largely negative results were recently reported in a study which used a well-known synchronization method on queueing network simulations. Discussed here is a synchronization method (appointments), which has proven itself to be effective on simulations of FCFS queueing networks. The key concept behind appointments is the provision of lookahead. Lookahead is a prediction on a processor's future behavior, based on an analysis of the processor's simulation state. It is shown how lookahead can be computed for FCFS queueing network simulations, give performance data that demonstrates the method's effectiveness under moderate to heavy loads, and discuss performance tradeoffs between the quality of lookahead, and the cost of computing lookahead.

Nicol, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Adaptive allocation of decisionmaking responsibility between human and computer in multitask situations

As human and computer come to have overlapping decisionmaking abilities, a dynamic or adaptive allocation of responsibilities may be the best mode of human-computer interaction. It is suggested that the computer serve as a backup decisionmaker, accepting responsibility when human workload becomes excessive and relinquishing responsibility when workload becomes acceptable. A queueing theory formulation of multitask decisionmaking is used and a threshold policy for turning the computer on/off is proposed. This policy minimizes event-waiting cost subject to human workload constraints. An experiment was conducted with a balanced design of several subject runs within a computer-aided multitask flight management situation with different task demand levels. It was found that computer aiding enhanced subsystem performance as well as subjective ratings. The queueing model appears to be an adequate representation of the multitask decisionmaking situation, and to be capable of predicting system performance in terms of average waiting time and server occupancy. Server occupancy was further found to correlate highly with the subjective effort ratings.

Chu, Y.-Y.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Conservative parallel simulation of priority class queueing networks

A conservative synchronization protocol is described for the parallel simulation of queueing networks having C job priority classes, where a job's class is fixed. This problem has long vexed designers of conservative synchronization protocols because of its seemingly poor ability to compute lookahead: the time of the next departure. For, a job in service having low priority can be preempted at any time by an arrival having higher priority and an arbitrarily small service time. The solution is to skew the event generation activity so that the events for higher priority jobs are generated farther ahead in simulated time than lower priority jobs. Thus, when a lower priority job enters service for the first time, all the higher priority jobs that may preempt it are already known and the job's departure time can be exactly predicted. Finally, the protocol was analyzed and it was demonstrated that good performance can be expected on the simulation of large queueing networks.

Nicol, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Conservative parallel simulation of priority class queueing networks

A conservative synchronization protocol is described for the parallel simulation of queueing networks having C job priority classes, where a job's class is fixed. This problem has long vexed designers of conservative synchronization protocols because of its seemingly poor ability to compute lookahead: the time of the next departure. For, a job in service having low priority can be preempted at any time by an arrival having higher priority and an arbitrarily small service time. The solution is to skew the event generation activity so that the events for higher priority jobs are generated farther ahead in simulated time than lower priority jobs. Thus, when a lower priority job enters service for the first time, all the higher priority jobs that may preempt it are already known and the job's departure time can be exactly predicted. Finally, the protocol was analyzed and it was demonstrated that good performance can be expected on the simulation of large queueing networks.

Nicol, David↗
NASA NTRS2016

Analyzing Double Delays at Newark Liberty International Airport

When weather or congestion impacts the National Airspace System, multiple different Traffic Management Initiatives can be implemented, sometimes with unintended consequences. One particular inefficiency that is commonly identified is in the interaction between Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and time based metering of internal departures, or TMA scheduling. Internal departures under TMA scheduling can take large GDP delays, followed by large TMA scheduling delays, because they cannot be easily fitted into the overhead stream. In this paper we examine the causes of these double delays through an analysis of arrival operations at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) from June to August 2010. Depending on how the double delay is defined between 0.3 percent and 0.8 percent of arrivals at EWR experienced double delays in this period. However, this represents between 21 percent and 62 percent of all internal departures in GDP and TMA scheduling. A deep dive into the data reveals that two causes of high internal departure scheduling delays are upstream flights making up time between their estimated departure clearance times (EDCTs) and entry into time based metering, which undermines the sequencing and spacing underlying the flight EDCTs, and high demand on TMA, when TMA airborne metering delays are high. Data mining methods (currently) including logistic regression, support vector machines and K-nearest neighbors are used to predict the occurrence of double delays and high internal departure scheduling delays with accuracies up to 0.68. So far, key indicators of double delay and high internal departure scheduling delay are TMA virtual runway queue size, and the degree to which estimated runway demand based on TMA estimated times of arrival has changed relative to the estimated runway demand based on EDCTs. However, more analysis is needed to confirm this.

traffic management advisor↗
NASA NTRS2016

Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

Probability Theory↗
NASA NTRS1986

An experimental paradigm for team decision processes

The study of distributed information processing and decision making is presently hampered by two factors: (1) The inherent complexity of the mathematical formulation of decentralized problems has prevented the development of models that could be used to predict performance in a distributed environment; and (2) The lack of comprehensive scientific empirical data on human team decision making has hindered the development of significant descriptive models. As a part of a comprehensive effort to find a new framework for multihuman decision making problems, a novel experimental research paradigm was developed involving human terms in decision making tasks. Attempts to construct parts of an integrated model with ideas from queueing networks, team theory, distributed estimation and decentralized resource management are described.

Serfaty, D.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Analyzing Double Delays at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR)

When weather or congestion impacts the National Airspace System, multiple different Traffic Management Initiatives can be implemented, sometimes with unintended consequences. One particular perceived inequity that is commonly identified is in the interaction between Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and time based scheduling of internal departures by the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) (now operationally superseded by the FAA's the Time-Based Flow Management system). Internal departures under TMA scheduling can take large GDP delays, followed by large TMA scheduling delays, because they cannot easily fit into the arrival flow at the runway. In this paper we examine the causes of these double delays through an analysis of arrival operations at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) from June to August 2010. TMA scheduling delays are found to be generally higher than TMA airborne metering delays, regardless of prior GDP delays. Depending on how the double delay is defined, between 42 and 62 of all internal departures in GDP and TMA scheduling experienced double delays in this period. A deep dive into the data reveals that contributors to double delays include upstream flights departing before their Expect Departure Clearance Times (EDCTs); differences in the rates used for setting EDCTs and TMA Scheduled Times of Arrival; differences in the arrival demand expected based on EDCTs and the arrival demand entering TMA; and shorter en route times between takeoff and entry into TMA than assumed in the calculation of flight EDCTs, all of which undermine the sequencing and spacing underlying flight EDCTs. Double delays are also found to coincide with periods in which the virtual runway arrival queue being served by a TMA is large, there are periods of high demand relative to capacity, and there are high airborne metering delays. Data mining techniques are used to confirm that each of these factors contribute to the occurrence of double delay andor high internal departure scheduling delay across three months of data from June to August 2010. Predictors of the occurrence of double delay and high TMA scheduling delay are built using logistic regression, providing prediction accuracies of 69 and 73, respectively.

traffic flow management↗
NASA NTRS2019

ATD-2 TFDM Terminal Publication Service (TTP)

Learn the many benefits of the newest SWIM feed from the surface system. This will discuss current options to onboard with this feed, allow participants to ask questions and provide some examples of how the data can be used. Service Includes Flight Data Individual flight updates containing flight identifiers, targeted times, actual times, runway, parking gate, spot, departure fix (predicted, assigned, actual as appropriate), flight states, and more. Airport Information Airport configurations, airport and runway rates, ramp closures, runway closures, taxiway closures. Traffic Management Restrictions Call for Release programs departure MIT/MINIT restrictions, departure stop/ground stop programs. Along with list of impacted flights for each. Flight Delay Airport and runway delay by arrival, departure, and total. Operational Metrics Metrics on airport throughput and individual flight metrics. Surface Metering Program SMP start / end times, metering constraint type / details, updates to existing programs, TMAT compliance window, departure queue length, and more.

Gorman, Shawn M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Extensibility and limitations of FDDI

Recently two standards for Metropolitan Area Networks (MANs), Fiber Distributed Data Interface (FDDI) and Distributed Queue Dual Bus (DQDB), have emerged as the primary competitors for the MAN arena. Great interest exists in building higher speed networks which support large numbers of node and greater distance, and it is not clear what types of protocols are needed for this type of environment. There is some question as to whether or not these MAN standards can be extended to such environments. The extensibility of FDDI to the Gbps range and a long distance environment is investigated. Specification parameters which affect performance are shown and a measure is provided for predicting utilization of FDDI. A comparison of FDDI at 100 Mbps and 1 Gbps is presented. Some specific problems with FDDI are addressed and modifications which improve the viability of FDDI in such high speed networks are investigated.

Game, David↗
NASA NTRS2018

Tactical Surface Metering Procedures for Charlotte Douglas International Airport

NASA has been collaborating with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and aviation industry partners to develop and demonstrate new concepts and technologies for the Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) traffic management capabilities under the Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) project. The primary goal of the ATD-2 project is to improve the predictability and the operational efficiency of the air traffic system in metroplex environments while maintaining or improving throughput by enhancing and integrating arrival, departure and surface prediction, scheduling, and management systems. In the Phase 1 Baseline IADS Demonstration, the tactical surface scheduling capability and the user interfaces for ramp controllers and ramp traffic managers were implemented for ramp operations. The purpose of the tactical surface scheduling capability is to provide the airline ramp controller with aircraft pushback advisories that prevent surface congestion and to respond to surface and airspace constraints that become known over relatively short time horizons. For this purpose, the tactical surface metering tool first estimates the capacity of current and near-future runway resources from flight schedule and surveillance data. With demand forecasts and predicted taxi trajectories, this tool computes an efficient runway schedule of aircraft in the planning horizon based on their readiness, Earliest Off-Block Times (EOBTs), and a ration by schedule (RBS) rule. Details on the implementation of the Tactical Surface Metering tool will be provided in the full paper. Both pushback and recommended hold times advisories provided by this surface metering tool are shown on the user interfaces for the ramp controller and the ramp traffic manager, called Ramp Traffic Console (RTC) and Ramp Manager Traffic Console (RMTC), respectively. There is excess queue time in the system due to demand capacity imbalance, this time can be taken as a hold on the runway queue or at the gate and was referred to as the Metering Value. This metering value can be adjusted by the Ramp Manager in collaboration with Air Traffic Controller-Tower Traffic Management Coordinator (TMC). They selected a set of metering values as default values for the tool during human-in-the-loop simulation. As the metering value increases, there is a decrease in the gate hold and increase in the queue time at the runway. Procedures and Information needs related to managing the surface metering procedures were researched in the simulated environment. These procedures will be compared to the procedures adopted at Charlotte Douglas International Airport when the tools were deployed and adopted in November 2017 for one departure push bank per day. Feedback regarding initial issues, information needs such as the need to see EOBTs on the flight data tags and how they compare to scheduled times will also be discussed in the full paper. Initial results will be provided regarding the choice of the metering value and how it was adjusted on a daily basis and what procedures evolved will also be presented in the paper.

surface metering↗