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US Fallout Shelter

Being indoors (sheltering) reduces radiation exposures resulting from nuclear fallout or a power-plant accident. However, most US building types, particularly non-residential buildings, lack quantitative estimates. We provide here a high-level modeling analysis of modern US building protection based on a novel radiation protection building attribute taxonomy, a new building protection model, compilation of prior experimental results, and nationally representative building survey data. This approach provides a consistent, quantitative understanding of US building protection and, when combined with the distribution of people among different buildings, can assist in selecting emergency response strategies. We find that indoor radiation protection varies by orders of magnitude. Most people in non-residential buildings are adequately protected, particularly below ground or in the building center. Residential buildings are less protective and those with lighter weight walls lack adequate, above ground protection. This work also highlights key areas where further investigation will improve the current results. These include the improving the understanding of residential basement protection, additional experimental data on non-residential buildings (particularly schools and industrial buildings), and the frequency of brick veneer and stucco exterior residential buildings.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Aerosol Optical Properties as Part of the Long-Term Aerosol Measurements in Puerto Rico (AOP-LAMP) Field Campaign Report

The University of Puerto Rico-Rio Piedras Campus (UPR-RP) has been measuring aerosol optical, chemical, and microphysical properties at Cape San Juan (CSJ, also known as CPR) since 2004. This site has also hosted several intensive field campaigns, with context provided by the long-term measurements. Hurricane Maria largely destroyed the station on September 20, 2017, forcing a cessation of the measurements. The scientific focus of this intensive operational period was to use a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF) aerosol shelter to enable the resumption of long-term aerosol measurements. This AMF shelter is now the main aerosol shelter for CSJ operations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Radiation Hazard Scale (Expanded Data Product Feedback Report)

During radiation emergencies, it is important to communicate clearly as radiation risks are often unfamiliar to many members of the general public and emergency responders, including public health workers. To partially address this issue, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) developed the Radiation Hazard Scale to communicate radiation risk to the general public, community leaders, and decision makers. The simple numeric scale does not require a background in radiation physics or health effects and can be used to assist people in understanding their risk and motivate protective action compliance. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has assisted the US Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration and the CDC in the development of Radiation Hazard Scale data products. This report documents the feedback received from Federal response officials on an expanded data product set. This expanded set accounts for the effects of building protection on radiation exposure and allows for the comparison between different response actions, including sheltering in place, based on the LLNL developed Regional Shelter Analysis methodology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Radiative Transfer Model for Patchy Landscapes Based on Stochastic Radiative Transfer Theory

The availability of global high-resolution land cover maps provides promising a priori knowledge for characterizing subpixel heterogeneity and improving predictions of directional reflectance of coarse-resolution pixels. Due to mutual shadowing and sheltering effects between the adjacent forest and cropland patches, the spectral nonlinear mixing of patchy ecotones is significant, especially when the sun illuminates the ecotone from the forest side with high solar zenith angle. The spectral linear mixture (SLM) approach leads to overestimation of the bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) in the red band in the principal plane (PP), with a maximum absolute error (MAE) of 0.0063 and a maximum relative error (MRE) of 52.5%, and to underestimation in the near-infrared band in PP with an MAE of 0.0940 and an MRE of 14.5%. In a scenario with randomly distributed boundary orientations, the overestimation of SLM increases with the degree of fragmentation and the view zenith angle. We propose a Radiative Transfer model for patchy ECotones (RTEC). which improves R² from 0.61 to 0.94 in the red band of Landsat-8 directional reflectance at the validation site. The RTEC model provides an efficient and analytical approach for directional reflectance predictions over heterogeneous patchy landscapes at coarse resolution and will be used for biophysical parameter retrievals [e.g., the leaf area index (LAI)] in future applications.

Zeng, Yelu↗

NASA’s first ground-based Galactic Cosmic Ray Simulator: Enabling a new era in space radiobiology research

With exciting new NASA plans for a sustainable return to the moon, astronauts will once again leave Earth’s protective magnetosphere only to endure higher levels of radiation from galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and the possibility of a large solar particle event (SPE). Gateway, lunar landers, and surface habitats will be designed to protect crew against SPEs with vehicle optimization, storm shelter concepts, and/or active dosimetry; however, the ever penetrating GCR will continue to pose the most significant health risks especially as lunar missions increase in duration and as NASA sets its aspirations on Mars. The primary risks of concern include carcinogenesis, central nervous system (CNS) effects resulting in potential in-mission cognitive or behavioral impairment and/or late neurological disorders, degenerative tissue effects including circulatory and heart disease, as well as potential immune system decrements impacting multiple aspects of crew health. Characterization and mitigation of these risks requires a significant reduction in the large biological uncertainties of chronic (low-dose rate) heavy-ion exposures and the validation of countermeasures in a relevant space environment. Historically, most research on understanding space radiation-induced health risks has been performed using acute exposures of monoenergetic single-ion beams. However, the space radiation environment consists of a wide variety of ion species over a broad energy range. Using the fast beam switching and controls systems technology recently developed at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) at Brookhaven National Laboratory, a new era in radiobiological research is possible. NASA has developed the “GCR Simulator” to generate a spectrum of ion beams that approximates the primary and secondary GCR field experienced at human organ locations within a deep-space vehicle. The majority of the dose is delivered from protons (approximately 65%–75%) and helium ions (approximately 10%–20%) with heavier ions (Z ≥ 3) contributing the remainder. The GCR simulator exposes state-of-the art cellular and animal model systems to 33 sequential beams including 4 proton energies plus degrader, 4 helium energies plus degrader, and the 5 heavy ions of C, O, Si, Ti, and Fe. A polyethylene degrader system is used with the 100 MeV/n H and He beams to provide a nearly continuous distribution of low-energy particles. A 500 mGy exposure, delivering doses from each of the 33 beams, requires approximately 75 minutes. To more closely simulate the low-dose rates found in space, sequential field exposures can be divided into daily fractions over 2 to 6 weeks, with individual beam fractions as low as 0.1 to 0.2 mGy. In the large beam configuration (60 × 60 cm 2 ), 54 special housing cages can accommodate 2 to 3 mice each for an approximately 75 min duration or 15 individually housed rats. On June 15, 2018, the NSRL made a significant achievement by completing the first operational run using the new GCR simulator. This paper discusses NASA’s innovative technology solution for a ground-based GCR simulator at the NSRL to accelerate our understanding and mitigation of health risks faced by astronauts. Ultimately, the GCR simulator will require validation across multiple radiogenic risks, endpoints, doses, and dose rates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Mixed-Material Scintillators (MMSS Quarterly Report FY20Q2)

This project aims to invent, model, and prototype mixed-material scintillator systems (MMSSs), a new class of radiation detectors that use heterogenous internal structures of different scintillating materials to detect additional properties of radiation. These internal structures can be produced using additive manufacture (3D printing) of scintillator, a currently emerging application of additive manufacture technology. MMSSs combine the low cost and complexity of conventional scintillation detectors with capabilities currently only available in more expensive and complex detectors. By identifying promising MMSS designs, this project will enable a new class of detectors to meet DNN’s mission needs for SNM detection. This quarter, we delivered one the MMSS Particle-ID Modeling report, a major deliverable of this project. This report describes our results on simulations of the particle-ID (PID) class of detectors. We found that these detectors outperform competing approaches for neutron-gamma discrimination, neutron source pointing, and neutron spectroscopy. Further highlights of the report are described below. During this quarter, We alerted HQ to a change in schedule for the remaining simulations planned for this project: we plan to put off further simulation and reporting of the position-resolving (PR) detector class until July. This change in schedule has allowed us to go into additional detail in the PID work that is both very promising and motivates our upcoming proposal. The other active task in this project is prototyping 3D-printed scintillators with the aim of realizing the designs we’ve simulated. On that front, we had three focuses: measuring the light output, increasing the size of printed parts, and combining blue and green scintillators. We succeeded in measuring the light output, showing an output of 30% of commercial standard. This result leaves room for improvement but is within striking distance of where we need to be. We were on track to demonstrate a key requirement for increasing the size of parts and also to show combined green/blue prints before the laboratory moved to a Minimum Safe (MinSafe) Operations posture as a result of local Shelter In Place orders due to Covid-19.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Protecting building occupants against the inhalation of outdoor-origin aerosols

During normal operations, buildings can protect their occupants from outdoor airborne particle hazards of all types, including airborne pollutants. A long-term international research effort has advanced our knowledge of building protection physics. Recently we have developed an operationally efficient, regional-scale methodology - Regional Shelter Analysis - to account for both building protection effects and the typical distribution of people in and among buildings. To provide input to this capability, we estimate here the degree of protection afforded by the currently existing US building stock. Here, we first assemble and summarize the published literature relevant to indoor particle losses including (a) deposition to indoor surfaces, (b) losses that occur when particles penetrate through the building envelope, and (c) heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system filtration efficiencies as well as general building operating conditions. Building protection against inhaling particulate hazards varies strongly, by orders of magnitude, according to particle size, airborne particle loss rate, and to a lesser extent building use (occupancy). Protection increases modestly as particle size increases from 0.1 to 1 μm and significantly as particle size increases from 1 to 10 μm. Model results are placed in context with previously reported measurements. Suggestions for future work, including enhanced validation datasets are provided.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Development of the Table of Initial Isolation and Protective Action Distances for the 2024 Emergency Response Guidebook

The transportation of hazardous materials creates numerous opportunities for the release of toxic substances into the environment, whether caused by traffic accidents, train derailments, equipment failures, or human error. Such releases can pose acute hazards to the general public and to emergency response personnel who are the first to arrive at the scene. To help first responders determine whether a shipment is potentially hazardous and decide what actions should be taken if a toxic spill does occur, the Emergency Response Guidebook (ERG) is published by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), Transport Canada, and the Secretariat of Transport and Communications of Mexico; with contributions from Centro de Informaciòn Quìmica para Emergencias of Argentina. The most recent version is the 2024 edition of the ERG (ERG 2024), titled 2024 Emergency Response Guidebook (ERG2024). The ERG provides essential information about firefighting, spill response, and potential public health effects. For chemicals that are toxic by inhalation (TIH) and chemicals that produce TIH gases upon reaction with water (TIH by water reactivity or TIHWR), the ERG provides initial isolation distances (IIDs) and protective action distances (PADs). The IID defines the radius of the zone around the spill that should be accessed solely by people who are directly involved in emergency response. The PAD is the distance downwind of the source of the release within which persons should be either evacuated or sheltered in place, depending on the severity of the incident and the nature of the population (e.g., density, age, health).

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Proposed Products to Support Shelter-Evacuation Decision Making in the Event of a Nuclear Detonation

Response strategies implemented in the first few hours to days after a nuclear detonation on the US homeland may save more than 100,000 lives. Effective planning and pre-event capability development can increase the response efficacy and so the number of lives saved. During such an event, the US Department of Defense, Joint Task Force Civil Support (DoD JTF-CS) provides command and control for the DoD forces supporting civil authority response operations. Among other activities, JTF-CS expects to support FEMA as well as State and local agencies in shelter and evacuation response activities. JTF-CS currently uses a manual method to generate evacuation decision making products. This method compares the dose that would be (a) acquired remaining at a given location to that (b) acquired during evacuation along a small number of routes. In these products, evacuation may be warranted when the projected “remain” dose is greater than the “evacuate” dose. This method only provides a limited consideration of the protection buildings provide their occupants. To inform the JTF-CS nuclear detonation response, the DoD Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) has tasked Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to design a set of planning and response products to support shelter-evacuation activities. This report documents these products to facilitate DTRA and JTF-CS planning efforts. To provide context, we also provide appendices that summarize US planning guidance response zones, early (<72 h) response strategies, and other key topics.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Quantitative Evaluation of Potassium Iodide Implementation Strategies for Emergency Preparedness and Response

This study evaluates the effectiveness of potassium iodide (KI) distribution strategies in mitigating exposure to radioiodine during severe nuclear power plant accidents. This analysis quantitatively compares various KI distribution methods (pre-distributed versus stockpiles), including scenarios with and without KI administration. The results indicate that differences in distribution strategies impact the projected thyroid dose by at least an order of magnitude. The results also indicate that the timing of KI administration is critical, as expected. For scenarios involving delayed releases of significant quantities of radionuclides, evacuation is the most effective protection strategy regardless of KI distribution method. For scenarios involving rapid releases, retrieving KI from stockpiles can have a detrimental effect. Pre-distributed KI is potentially the most effective approach when used as a supplement to evacuation and sheltering. However, these model results are based on idealized conditions for KI distribution and administration; the actual benefits of KI prophylaxis are likely to be less than estimated in this report due to many variables. The results highlight the importance of considering the cost and rigor of different distribution programs and public compliance with emergency instructions. This report includes suggested research to explore KI distribution plans for advanced reactors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NA-22 Quarterly Report: April-June, 2020

At LLNL we contribute to two projects in NNSA-IAEC Science and Technology Working Group Area V: Basic Science of Waste Management & Subsurface Science. The motivation behind Topic Area V is to evaluate the scientific and safety case for an intermediate borehole to house Israel’s nuclear waste. WM1 (SNL lead) is Thermomechanical Damage (initially called Damage Accumulation and Wellbore Stability). This work focuses on evaluating the damage to the host rock induced by excavation and heat released from a possible radioactive waste repository/borehole. WM2 (LLNL lead) is Radionuclide Facilitated Transport in Carbonate Rock (initially called Colloidal Transport of Radionuclides). This work focuses on better understanding the transport of radionuclides and colloids from a nuclear waste repository/borehole in a vadose zone environment through experimentation and modeling. In the second quarter (this report) our work has been delayed in part due to COVID-19. LLNL went into shelter in place (SIP), minimum safe operations mid-March. Operations at LLNL have been slowly ramping up with 50% of the workforce back onsite in limited capacity and telecommuting widely used. The good news is that our labs opened up the last week in June and experiments are expected to start up again for WM2 Radionuclide Facilitated Transport in July. LLNL’s contribution to WM1 Thermochemical Damage modeling efforts also started back up in late June. We expect to be able to catch up on much of our work by the end of next quarter. The three national laboratories communication on a bi-monthly basis to make sure Area V projects remain on track and we have a monthly conference call with our Israeli counterparts to make sure we are communicating priorities and coordinating project details.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Reducing Exposures to Airborne Particles Through Improved Filtration: A High-Level Modeling Analysis

Indoor airborne particulates are well-known health hazards and filtration is one common method of reducing exposures. Based on our previously developed Regional Shelter Analysis methodology and parameters that characterize the existing US building stock, we perform a high-level assessment of the potential benefits of upgrading existing filters in furnace and in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems using off-the-shelf filters. We use three metrics to assess the improvement: Building Transmission Factor (a measure of protection against outdoor airborne particles), Indoor Normalized Time and Space Integrated Air Concentration (a measure of indoor exposure to indoor-origin airborne particles), and Building Exit Fraction (fraction of indoor airborne particles that are released to the outdoor atmosphere). We also discuss the potential reduction in regional exposures due to particles exiting the building and exposing downwind building occupants. Our modeling indicates that while buildings provide their occupants passive protection against airborne particulate hazards, including but not limited to PM 2.5 , PM 10 , and wildfire smoke; improving particle filtration efficiency may further improve this protection. The degree of improvement varies with particle size and building type. Of the building types studied, apartments are predicted to benefit most, with greater than a factor of 2 improvement (≥50% reduction in exposures) for 1 µm particle exposures when using MERV 7 to 12 rated filters. Non-residential buildings were notably less responsive to improved filtration but had the highest Building Exit Fractions with 30% to 40% of indoor airborne particles released to the outdoor atmosphere (apartment buildings only released 6% to 9%). Improvements predicted for single family homes were intermediate between apartments and non-residential buildings. Improvements in the Regional Exposure metric are larger, ranging from a factor of 2.5x to 10x for residences (when using MERV 7 to 12 rated filters) and up to 25x for large apartments with MERV 14 or 15 rated filters. The results of our modeling analysis are broadly consistent with the limited experimental data and modeling results available in the literature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗