PBL height from random forest, random forest classifier and lightGBM ML models.
PBL height from random forest, random forest classifier and lightGBM ML models.
LightGBM ML models↗
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Machine Learning Classification of Molten Salt Heat Exchanger Channel Plugging using Synthetic Data
This report addresses the requirements of Milestone M3.4 AI capability to identify and predict maintenance events. Development of digital twins (DT) for molten salt reactor (MSR) components is crucial for reducing operating and maintenance costs (O&M) and ensuring commercial viability of these reactors. Our focus is on development of DT for MSR primary system heat exchanger (HX), a critical component, the fault in which can reduce operating efficiency and force reactor shutdown. We are investigating the feasibility of a conceptual DT of HX consisting of internal distributed temperature sensing with fiber optics and machine learning (ML) algorithms to detect and localize faults. To determine the optimal approach to detection and localization of channel plugging, we benchmark seven different ML models: Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Gaussian Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machines (SVM), Decision Tree Classifier, Random Forest Tree Classifier, and Feed-Forward Neural Network. ML algorithms are benchmarked using synthetic HX plugging data generated with computational fluid dynamics COMSOL software, with added brown noise to represent experimental noise. We show that the best performance is obtained with the Decision Tree classifier.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
On the discovery of stars, quasars, and galaxies in the Southern Hemisphere with S-PLUS DR2
ABSTRACT This paper provides a catalogue of stars, quasars, and galaxies for the Southern Photometric Local Universe Survey Data Release 2 (S-PLUS DR2) in the Stripe 82 region. We show that a 12-band filter system (5 Sloan-like and 7 narrow bands) allows better performance for object classification than the usual analysis based solely on broad bands (regardless of infrared information). Moreover, we show that our classification is robust against missing values. Using spectroscopically confirmed sources retrieved from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR16 and DR14Q, we train a random forest classifier with the 12 S-PLUS magnitudes + 4 morphological features. A second random forest classifier is trained with the addition of the W1 (3.4 $\mu\mathrm{m} $) and W2 (4.6 $\mu\mathrm{m} $) magnitudes from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). Forty-four per cent of our catalogue have WISE counterparts and are provided with classification from both models. We achieve 95.76 per cent (52.47 per cent) of quasar purity, 95.88 per cent (92.24 per cent) of quasar completeness, 99.44 per cent (98.17 per cent) of star purity, 98.22 per cent (78.56 per cent) of star completeness, 98.04 per cent (81.39 per cent) of galaxy purity, and 98.8 per cent (85.37 per cent) of galaxy completeness for the first (second) classifier, for which the metrics were calculated on objects with (without) WISE counterpart. A total of 2926 787 objects that are not in our spectroscopic sample were labelled, obtaining 335 956 quasars, 1347 340 stars, and 1243 391 galaxies. From those, 7.4 per cent, 76.0 per cent, and 58.4 per cent were classified with probabilities above 80 per cent. The catalogue with classification and probabilities for Stripe 82 S-PLUS DR2 is available for download.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Optimizing Classifiers for Radionuclide Identification
Identifying threat nuclear materials is a critical for the prevention of acts of nuclear terrorism on the homeland. For this purpose, many radionuclide identification devices are deployed in the field. However, these will not necessarily be in the hands of non-experts, therefore these devices need to provide ready-made answers for the personnel in the field. This is where advanced algorithms are employed to both interpret the data and provide the identification of the nuclear material being interrogated. We took a machine learning approach to identification, by using training and validation data sets to create and optimize classifiers which determine which radionuclide is consistent with the data. The classifiers investigated were the Random Forest, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, and XG Boost and their performance was judged using the F1 Score for both hyperparameter tuning and comparison. In the end, we found out that the Random Forest Classifier worked the best based off the F1 Score they got which was 0.98.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Classification Analysis of Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes Prior to Landfall
This study evaluates the ability of a random forest classifier to identify tropical cyclone (TC) intensification or weakening prior to landfall over the western region of the Southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO) basin. For both Australia mainland and SWPO island cases, when a TC first crosses land after spending ≥24 h over the ocean, the closest hour prior to the intersection is considered as the landfall hour. If the maximum wind speed (V max ) at the landfall hour increased or remained the same from the 24-h mark prior to landfall, the TC is labeled as intensifying and if the V max at the landfall hour decreases, the TC is labeled as weakening. Geophysical and aerosol variables closest to the 24 h before landfall hour were collected for each sample. The random forest model with leave-one-out cross validation and the random oversampling example technique was identified as the best-performing classifier for both mainland and island cases. The model identified longitude, initial intensity, and sea skin temperature as the most important variables for the mainland and island landfall classification decisions. Incorrectly classified cases from the test data were analyzed by sorting the cases by their initial intensity hour, landfall hour, monthly distribution, and 24-h intensity changes. TC intensity changes near land strongly impact coastal preparations such as wind damage and flood damage mitigations; hence, this study will contribute to improve identifying and prioritizing prediction of important variables contributing to TC intensity change before landfall.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Analysis of an optical imaging system prototype for autonomously monitoring zooplankton in an aquaculture facility
Traditional approaches to biomonitoring in aquatic systems, such as sample collection, sorting, and identification, require significant time and effort, thereby limiting the spatiotemporal resolution of sample collection. Additionally, collection and preservation of samples for subsequent taxonomic identification and enumeration leads to mortality of organisms. Recent advances in technologies that utilize optical imaging and machine learning have provided new opportunities to expedite biomonitoring and lead to significant cost savings. These technologies can be advantageous to scientists or managers that conduct routine biomonitoring to inform operations, as in the case of aquaculture facilities. The Small Aquatic Organism optical imaging system (SAO) is a high-throughput optical imaging and classification prototype system that relies on computer vision and machine learning (Support Vector Machines, or SVMs) to autonomously identify and enumerate aquatic organisms. The SAO provides a more sustainable method of collecting large volumes of data and has the benefit of being used in situ. In this study, we tested the performance of the SAO in providing comparable results to manual zooplankton community monitoring in ten ponds at an aquaculture facility. We performed a side-by-side study comparing the sampling methods of plankton tow nets, where major zooplankton taxonomic classes were manually identified and enumerated, to sampling with the SAO. Vouchered samples were used to develop a training library for the SAO, where classes consisted of water boatman and zooplankton groups: cladocerans, copepod adults, copepod nauplii, and rotifers. SAO imagery was manually classified and compared with predicted results for validation. Accuracy for the SVM classifier of the SAO was 37.4 %. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Random Forest classifiers were also applied to SAO imagery and image features for comparison. The best CNN model and our Random Forest model had accuracies of 80.4 % and 46.6 % respectively. Challenges faced included the small size of copepod nauplii and rotifers and the limited resolution of the imaging camera, although there are tradeoffs between imaging resolution and the sample processing rate. Furthermore, our comparison shows that advancement in both optical imaging and ML are needed in order for the SAO prototype to yield comparable results to manual community monitoring in an aquaculture facility.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Learning From User Behavior: A Survey-Assist Algorithm for Longitudinal Mobility Data Collection
GPS-based travel surveys are widely used in mobility studies to gather crucial qualitative data, like purpose, transportation mode and replaced mode. However, survey response still poses a burden to users, especially in long-term mobility studies, leading to response fatigue. We explore a survey-assist strategy to ease this burden by a novel, user-level modeling approach that leverages past responses from each user to predict responses for new trips, without relying on external data sources like GIS data. We investigate three main algorithms for predicting responses: (i) clustering trips and extrapolating responses for similar trips, (ii) using random forest classification, and (iii) clustering that uses a hybrid algorithm to determine spatial structure, which is then fed as input to a classic random forest classifier. The clustering approach can flexibly predict responses for even complex qualitative survey questions; it achieved F-scores of 65%. The random forest pipeline uses architecture that restricts it to predicting three predetermined survey questions: trip purpose, mode, and replaced mode. However, it achieved F-scores of 78%. While the survey-assist approach has been implemented by several proprietary systems, to our knowledge, this is the first exploration in the academic literature. It follows that this is also the first rigorous evaluation of multiple algorithms that can implement the approach. The evaluation uses a large scale, publicly available, longitudinal dataset consisting of ~ 92k trips from 235 users over a period of roughly one and a half years. With this approach, travel surveys can be pre-filled with the predicted responses for each trip, thus streamlining the survey process for users. Combined with an active learning system that requests user input on low-confidence predictions, models can be updated and improved over time to better support the long-term collection of longitudinal qualitative data.
clustering↗
Chemical composition based machine learning model to predict defect formation in additive manufacturing
With a goal of exploiting additive manufacturing to improve the manufacturing of existing reactor materials, we developed a chemical composition-based machine learning model to predict the printability of any given alloy in laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) using experimental data from peer-reviewed literature. We defined printability as the ability to avoid defects like cracking, balling, porosity, and lack of fusion, that are caused by thermal stresses (during solidification or liquation), molten pool disintegration into disconnected small beads or lack of heat input respectively. Our models predict the tendency of balling defect formation and porosity percentage for a given composition, under a given set of processing conditions. To predict the likelihood of balling defect, three models: a random forest classifier, a gradient boost regressor and a neural network were trained on a dataset containing both traditional alloys and high entropy alloys. The neural network model showed the highest accuracy of 92.3 % in predicting the balling defect formation. A random forest regressor, gradient boost regressor and neural network were trained and tested on a dataset of various alloys to predict porosity. The random forest regressor showed the best predictions with an R 2 score of 0.97. The models also revealed the relative importance of the input descriptors on defect-formation tendency. Of particular significance was the identification of carbon as an important element in determining the occurrence of balling and percent porosity in alloys like steel, as well as being moderately important to the percentage porosity in other alloys as well as steel. Manganese was also identified as a key descriptor for the percentage of porosity in steel and other alloys. Manganese’s low thermal conductivity and consistent presence in the dataset is the likely cause for its contribution. Carbon’s role is attributable to its relatively high specific heat and high melting temperature. In conclusion, our model serves as a swift, chemistry-based tool to design experiments and find modified compositions better suited for additive manufacturing.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Data-assisted combustion simulations with dynamic submodel assignment using random forests
This investigation outlines a data-assisted approach that employs random forest classifiers for local and dynamic submodel assignment in turbulent-combustion simulations. This method is demonstrated in simulations of a single-element GOX/GCH4 rocket combustor; a priori as well as a posteriori assessments are conducted to (i) evaluate the accuracy and adjustability of the classifier for targeting different quantities of interest (QoIs), and (ii) assess improvements, resulting from the data-assisted combustion model assignment, in predicting target QoIs during simulation runtime. Results from the a priori study show that random forests, trained with local flow properties as input variables and combustion model errors as training labels, assign three different combustion models – finite-rate chemistry (FRC), flamelet progress variable (FPV) model, and inert mixing (IM) – with reasonable classification performance even when targeting multiple QoIs. Applications in a posteriori studies demonstrate improved predictions from data-assisted simulations, in temperature and CO mass fraction, when compared with monolithic FPV calculations. An additional a posteriori data-assisted simulation of a modified configuration demonstrates that the present approach can be successfully applied to different configurations, as long as thermophysical behavior can be represented by the training data. Furthermore, these results demonstrate that this data-driven framework holds promise for dynamic combustion submodel assignments in reacting flow simulations.
42 ENGINEERING↗
A Machine Learns to Predict the Stability of Highly Diverse Multi-planetary Systems
Machine learning has proven to be an invaluable tool for characterizing the stability of planets in simplified planetary systems. In this work, we investigate the performance of a machine learning classifier on tightlypacked systems containing a rich diversity of planets, from Earths to Jupiters. Using information derived from short numerical simulations about a planet’s early orbital evolution and its relationship with the most massive planets in the system, we train a random forest classifier to predict instability with a > 88 percent accuracy. Our classifier relies on relative planet masses and the standard deviation of eccentricity for much of its predictive power. Most misclassified planets lie along a multi-dimensional boundary between stable and unstable planets, indicating that their early orbital evolution is ambiguous. The major reason for misclassification in this work is timescale: because our classifier uses information from only the first 137 years of simulation data, it is blind to late time interactions that cause or prevent instability. Machine learning methods like those utilized in this work provide powerful tools to complement numerical simulations across a wide range of planetary architectures.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
A2Cloud‐RF : A random forest based statistical framework to guide resource selection for high‐performance scientific computing on the cloud
Summary This article proposes a random‐forest based A2Cloud framework to match scientific applications with Cloud providers and their instances for high performance. The framework leverages four engines for this task: PERF engine, Cloud trace engine, A2Cloud‐ext engine, and the random forest classifier (RFC) engine. The PERF engine profiles the application to obtain performance characteristics, including the number of single‐precision (SP) floating‐point operations (FLOPs), double‐precision (DP) FLOPs, x87 operations, memory accesses, and disk accesses. The Cloud trace engine obtains the corresponding performance characteristics of the selected Cloud instances including: SP floating point operations per second (FLOPS), DP FLOPS, x87 operations per second, memory bandwidth, and disk bandwidth. The A2Cloud‐ext engine uses the application and Cloud instance characteristics to generate objective scores that represent the application‐to‐Cloud match. The RFC engine uses these objective scores to generate two types of random forests to assist users with rapid analysis: application‐specific random forests (ARF) and application‐class based random forests. The ARF consider only the input application's characteristics to generate a random forest and provide numerical ratings to the selected Cloud instances. To generate the application‐class based random forests, the RFC engine downloads the application profiles and scores of previously tested applications that perform similar to the input application. Using these data, the RFC engine creates a random forest for instance recommendation. We exhaustively test this framework using eight real‐world applications across 12 instances from different Cloud providers. Our tests show significant statistical agreement between the instance ratings given by the framework and the ratings obtained via actual Cloud executions.
Samuel, David↗
DeepMerge: Classifying high-redshift merging galaxies with deep neural networks
In this work, we investigate and demonstrate the use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for the task of distinguishing between merging and non-merging galaxies in simulated images, and for the first time at high redshifts (i.e. $z=2$). We extract images of merging and non-merging galaxies from the Illustris-1 cosmological simulation and apply observational and experimental noise that mimics that from the Hubble Space Telescope; the data without noise form a "pristine" data set and that with noise form a "noisy" data set. The test set classification accuracy of the CNN is $79\%$ for pristine and $76\%$ for noisy. The CNN outperforms a Random Forest classifier, which was shown to be superior to conventional one- or two-dimensional statistical methods (Concentration, Asymmetry, the Gini, $M_{20}$ statistics etc.), which are commonly used when classifying merging galaxies. We also investigate the selection effects of the classifier with respect to merger state and star formation rate, finding no bias. Finally, we extract Grad-CAMs (Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping) from the results to further assess and interrogate the fidelity of the classification model.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Applications of Machine Learning to Predicting Core-collapse Supernova Explosion Outcomes
Most existing criteria derived from progenitor properties of core-collapse supernovae are not very accurate in predicting explosion outcomes. We present a novel look at identifying the explosion outcome of core-collapse supernovae using a machine-learning approach. Informed by a sample of 100 2D axisymmetric supernova simulations evolved with F ornax , we train and evaluate a random forest classifier as an explosion predictor. Furthermore, we examine physics-based feature sets including the compactness parameter, the Ertl condition, and a newly developed set that characterizes the silicon/oxygen interface. With over 1500 supernovae progenitors from 9-27 M ⊙ , we additionally train an autoencoder to extract physics-agnostic features directly from the progenitor density profiles. We find that the density profiles alone contain meaningful information regarding their explodability. Both the silicon/oxygen and autoencoder features predict the explosion outcome with ≈90% accuracy. In anticipation of much larger multidimensional simulation sets, we identify future directions in which machine-learning applications will be useful beyond the explosion outcome prediction.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone development classification utilizing machine learning and synoptic composites
This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A Machine Learning Approach to Quantitative Analysis of Enamel Microstructure from Scanning Electron Microscopy Images
Dental enamel, the outermost tissue of mammalian teeth, must withstand a lifetime of wear and cyclic contact. To meet this demand, enamel possesses a combination of high hardness and resistance to fracture, properties that are typically mutually exclusive. The impressive damage tolerance has been attributed largely to decussation of the enamel rods, the principal unit of its microstructure. As such, enamel is inspiring the design of next‐generation structural materials. However, quantitative descriptions of the decussated enamel rod microstructure remain limited due to challenges encountered in applying computed tomography and in acquiring quality images appropriate for traditional digital processing methods. Here, a machine learning segmentation method is applied to images of the enamel obtained using scanning electron microscopy to support quantitative analysis of the microstructure. A pretrained convolutional neural network is used to expand the input training image dataset to allow the training of a random forest classifier, which ultimately segments the image with a very small training set ( n = 3 images). A validation of this segmentation method is presented, in addition to its application to calculate relevant microstructural parameters for images of tooth enamel from selected mammalian species. The methodology applied here is equally applicable to other hard tissues.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Employing Machine Learning for New Particle Formation Identification and Mechanistic Analysis: Insights From a Six‐Year Observational Study in the Southern Great Plains
We present a supervised machine learning (ML) framework to automatically identify new particle formation (NPF) events and analyze key atmospheric factors associated with their occurrence and growth. We applied ML to detect NPF events using start time and particle concentrations across size ranges, while identifying atmospheric variables including ambient temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation intensity (SRI), wind speed, wind direction, boundary layer height, total organics, sulfate, nitrate, total surface area concentration, sulfur dioxide, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). We analyzed a 6-year data set from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, USA. Using long-term ground-based measurements, we identified NPF events and applied Random Forest Classifiers, which achieved 90%–95% prediction accuracy. Feature importance analysis highlighted SRI, relative humidity, and ambient temperature as the most influential variables, contributing normalized importances of 28%, 17%, and 10%. Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) indicated that higher SRI and lower relative humidity were critical in promoting NPF formation at SGP. Seasonally, NPF events were more frequent in winter (42.1%) and spring (35.5%), and least in summer (4.0%). Particle growth rates also exhibited a seasonal variation, with the lowest in winter (below 2 nm hr −1 ) and highest in late spring and early summer (exceeding 5 nm hr −1 ). Temperature, turbulent kinetic energy, and aerosol properties were the primary factors of growth rate variability. This study advances predictive modeling of NPF, offers insights for future campaign deployments, and demonstrates the effectiveness of ML in understanding the formation and growth of atmospheric aerosols.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Microglia are implicated in the development of paclitaxel chemotherapy-associated cognitive impairment in female mice
Chemotherapy remains a mainstay in the treatment of many types of cancer even though it is associated with debilitating behavioral side effects referred to as “chemobrain,” including difficulty concentrating and memory impairment. The predominant hypothesis in the field is that systemic inflammation drives these cognitive impairments, although the brain mechanisms by which this occurs remain poorly understood. Here, we hypothesized that microglia are activated by chemotherapy and drive chemotherapy-associated cognitive impairments. To test this hypothesis, we treated female C57BL/6 mice with a clinically-relevant regimen of a common chemotherapeutic, paclitaxel (6 i.p. doses at 30 mg/kg), which impairs memory of an aversive stimulus as assessed via a contextual fear conditioning (CFC) paradigm. In this work, paclitaxel increased the percent area of IBA1 staining in the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus. Moreover, using a machine learning random forest classifier we identified immunohistochemical features of reactive microglia in multiple hippocampal subregions that were distinct between vehicle- and paclitaxel-treated mice. Paclitaxel treatment also increased gene expression of inflammatory cytokines in a microglia-enriched population of cells from mice. Lastly, a selective inhibitor of colony stimulating factor 1 receptor, PLX5622, was employed to deplete microglia and then assess CFC performance following paclitaxel treatment. PLX5622 significantly reduced hippocampal gene expression of paclitaxel-induced proinflammatory cytokines and restored memory, suggesting that microglia play a critical role in the development of chemotherapy-associated neuroinflammation and cognitive impairments. This work provides critical evidence that microglia drive paclitaxel-associated cognitive impairments, a key mechanistic detail for determining preventative and intervention strategies for these burdensome side effects.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Characterization and prediction of the electromechanical wear of contact tips during wire arc additive manufacturing of 316L stainless steel
Here, this study seeks to better understand the degradation of the contact tip with respect to WAAM for a 316L wire electrode as well as explore methods of monitoring the contact tip state from process data. The contact tip, a consumable component, positions the wire and serves as the electrical contact surface between the wire electrode and the welding power supply. The wear of the contact tip was characterized in terms of material loss and material contamination for a set of tips worn to discrete levels as measured by the amount of wire fed or arc time. Geometrical characterization found a 49% increase in the bore exit area at 180 meters of wire fed. Machine learning models were developed to predict the relative bore exit area of the contact tip from arc-based process data and a random forest classifier exhibited favorable performance with a cross-validated f1-score of 0.84. The regression architecture implemented a multi-layer perceptron with the ability to predict the relative exit area with an $R^2$ score of 0.75. Key features used in the prediction include the standard deviation of the voltage and the time between shorts.
Contact tip wear↗