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At least 19 records

The Southern hemisphere midlatitude circulation response to rapid adjustments and sea surface temperature driven feedbacks

Rapid adjustments – the response of meteorology to external forcing while sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice are held fixed – can affect the midlatitude circulation and contribute to long-term forced circulation responses in climate simulations. This study examines rapid adjustments in the Southern hemisphere (SH) circulation using nine models from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), which perform fixed SST and coupled ocean experiments for five perturbations: a doubling of carbon dioxide (2xCO2), a tripling of methane (3xCH4), a five-fold increase in sulphate aerosol (5xSO4), a ten-fold increase in black carbon aerosol (10xBC) and a 2% increase in solar constant (2%Sol). In the coupled experiments, the SH eddy-driven jet shifts poleward and strengthens for forcings that produce global warming (and vice versa for 5xSO4), with the strongest response found in austral summer. In austral winter, the responses project more strongly onto a change in jet strength. For 10xBC, which induces strong shortwave absorption, the multi-model mean (MMM) rapid adjustment in DJF jet latitude is ~75% of the change in the coupled simulations. For the other forcings, which induce larger SST changes, the effect of SST-mediated feedbacks on the SH circulation is larger than the rapid adjustment. Nevertheless, for these perturbations the magnitude of the MMM jet shift due to the rapid adjustment is still around 25-33% of that in the coupled experiments. The results demonstrate the need to understand the mechanisms for rapid adjustments in the midlatitude circulation, in addition to the effect of changing SSTs.

Wood, Thomas↗

Changes in Tropical Clouds and Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Rapid Adjustment Induced by Increased Atmospheric CO2 – A Multiscale Modeling Framework Study

The radiative heating increase due to increased CO2 concentration is the primary source for the rapid adjustment of atmospheric circulation and clouds. In this study, we investigate the rapid adjustment resulting from doubling of CO2 and its physical mechanism using a multiscale modeling framework (MMF). The MMF includes an advanced higher-order turbulence closure in its cloud-resolving model component and simulates realistic shallow and deep cloud climatology and boundary layer turbulence. The rapid adjustment over the tropics is characterized by 1) reduced ascent and descent strengths over the ocean, 2) increased lower tropospheric stability (LTS) over the subsidence region, 3) shoaling of planetary boundary layers over the ocean, 4) increased deep convection over lands and shift of cloud coverage from the ocean to lands, and 5) reduced sensible (SH) and latent heat (LH) fluxes over the oceanic deep convective regions. Unlike conventional general circulation models and another MMF, a reduction in the global-mean shortwave cloud radiative cooling is not simulated, due to the increase in low clouds at lower altitudes over the ocean, resulting from reduced cloud-top entrainment due to strengthened inversion. Changes in regional circulation play a key role in cloud changes and shift of cloud coverage to lands. Weaker energy transport resulting from water vapor and cloud CO2 masking effects reduces the upward motion and convective clouds in the oceanic regions. The ocean-land transports are linked to the partitioning of surface SH and LH fluxes that increases humidity over lands and enhances deep convection over the tropical lands.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗

Technical note: Recommendations for diagnosing cloud feedbacks and rapid cloud adjustments using cloud radiative kernels

Abstract. The cloud radiative kernel method is a popular approach to quantify cloud feedbacks and rapid cloud adjustments to increased CO2 concentrations and to partition contributions from changes in cloud amount, altitude, and optical depth. However, because this method relies on cloud property histograms derived from passive satellite sensors or produced by passive satellite simulators in models, changes in obscuration of lower-level clouds by upper-level clouds can cause apparent low-cloud feedbacks and adjustments, even in the absence of changes in lower-level cloud properties. Here, we provide a methodology for properly diagnosing the impact of changing obscuration on cloud feedbacks and adjustments and quantify these effects across climate models. Averaged globally and across global climate models, properly accounting for obscuration leads to weaker positive feedbacks from lower-level clouds and stronger positive feedbacks from upper-level clouds while simultaneously removing a mostly artificial anti-correlation between them. Given that the methodology for diagnosing cloud feedbacks and adjustments using cloud radiative kernels has evolved over several papers, and obscuration effects have only occasionally been considered in recent papers, this paper serves to establish recommended best practices and to provide a corresponding code base for community use.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System: a Scientific Assessment

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg/yr in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27)W/sq m. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W/sq m. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W/sq m. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W/sq m, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (0.50 to +1.08) W/sq m during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (0.06 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of 1.45 to +1.29 W/sq m). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

black carbon↗

Flexiwall 3 SO: A second order predictive strategy for rapid wall adjustment in two-dimensional compressible flow

An improvement is presented for the 2-D strategies for adjustment of the flexible top and bottom walls of an Adaptive (Wind Tunnel) Wall Test Section (AWTS). This adjustment is part of the wall adaptation process to eliminate top and bottom wall interference at the source. The improvements to account for second order effects are described in mathematical detail. It is intended that these improvements should further minimize the necessary iterations in the wall adaptation process. An associated computer program written in BASIC is presented and several test cases run with this program are discussed. The strategy performs well for a theoretical test case but when applied to experimental AWTS data some discrepancies in the adapted wall shapes are found.

Goodyer, M. J.↗

Weak Hydrological Sensitivity to Temperature Change over Land, Independent of Climate Forcing

We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3% per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature-driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5%/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2%/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. We identify a particular need for model investigations and observational constraints on convective precipitation in the Arctic, and large-scale precipitation around the Equator.

Samset, B. H.↗

Modified gas bearing is adjustable to optimum stiffness ratio

Inexpensive and rapid-adjustments of the radial to axial stiffness ratio of a spherical gas bearing are achieved by a series of gas passages in the equatorial plane of the sphere which feed into orifices that can be readily changed in size.

Evans, J. L.↗

Reducing the aerosol forcing uncertainty using observational constraints on warm rain processes

Global climate models (GCMs) disagree with other lines of evidence on the rapid adjustments of cloud cover and liquid water path to anthropogenic aerosols. Attempts to use observations to constrain the parameterizations of cloud processes in GCMs have failed to reduce the disagreement. We propose using observations sensitive to the relevant cloud processes rather than only to the atmospheric state and focusing on process realism in the absence of aerosol perturbations in addition to the process susceptibility to aerosols. We show that process-sensitive observations of precipitation can reduce the uncertainty on GCM estimates of rapid cloud adjustments to aerosols. The feasibility of an observational constraint depends on understanding the precipitation intensity spectrum in both observations and models and also on improving methods to compare the two.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surface Warming and Wetting Due to Methane’s Longwave Radiative Effects Muted By Shortwave Absorption

Although greenhouse gases absorb primarily long-wave radiation, they also absorb short-wave radiation. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of methane short-wave absorption, which enhances its stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing by up to ~ 15%. The corresponding climate impacts, however, have been only indirectly evaluated and thus remain largely unquantified. Here we present a systematic, unambiguous analysis using one model and separate simulations with and without methane short-wave absorption. We find that methane short-wave absorption counteracts ~30% of the surface warming associated with its long-wave radiative effects. An even larger impact occurs for precipitation as methane short-wave absorption offsets ~60% of the precipitation increase relative to its long-wave radiative effects. The methane short-wave-induced cooling is due largely to cloud rapid adjustments, including increased low-level clouds, which enhance the reflection of incoming short-wave radiation, and decreased high-level clouds, which enhance outgoing long-wave radiation. The cloud responses, in turn, are related to the profile of atmospheric solar heating and corresponding changes in temperature and relative humidity. Despite our findings, methane remains a potent contributor to global warming, and efforts to reduce methane emissions are vital for keeping global warming well below 2 °C above preindustrial values.

radiative forcing↗

Water Vapour Adjustments and Responses Differ Between Climate Drivers

Water vapour in the atmosphere is the source of a major climate feedback mechanism and potential increases in the availability of water vapour could have important consequences for mean and extreme precipitation. Future precipitation changes further depend on how the hydrological cycle responds to different drivers of climate change, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. Currently, neither the total anthropogenic influence on the hydrological cycle nor that from individual drivers is constrained sufficiently to make solid projections. We investigate how integrated water vapour (IWV) responds to different drivers of climate change. Results from 11 global climate models have been used, based on simulations where CO2, methane, solar irradiance, black carbon (BC), and sulfate have been perturbed separately. While the global-mean IWV is usually assumed to increase by 7% per kelvin of surface temperature change, we find that the feedback response of IWV differs somewhat between drivers. Fast responses, which include the initial radiative effect and rapid adjustments to an external forcing, amplify these differences. The resulting net changes in IWV range from 6.4±0.9%K(exp -1) for sulfate to 9.8±2%K(exp -1) for BC. We further calculate the relationship between global changes in IWV and precipitation, which can be characterized by quantifying changes in atmospheric water vapour lifetime. Global climate models simulate a substantial increase in the lifetime, from 8.2±0.5 to 9.9±0.7d between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 under a high-emission scenario, and we discuss to what extent the water vapour lifetime provides additional information compared to analysis of IWV and precipitation separately. We conclude that water vapour lifetime changes are an important indicator of changes in precipitation patterns and that BC is particularly efficient in prolonging the mean time, and therefore likely the distance, between evaporation and precipitation.

Hodnebrog, Øivind↗

Thiol post-translational modifications modulate allosteric regulation of the OpcA–G6PDH complex through conformational gate control

In cyanobacteria, the redox-sensitive protein OpcA acts as a metabolic switch for G6PDH, enabling rapid adjustment of reducing power generation from glycogen catabolism and thereby precisely regulating carbon flux between anabolic and catabolic pathways. Although redox-sensitive cysteines in OpcA are known to regulate G6PDH, the mechanisms by which redox post-translational modifications (PTMs) on OpcA control G6PDH structure and activity remain unclear. Here, we combine computational modeling with experimental redox proteomics in Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 to dissect this mechanism. Experimentally, redox proteome analysis revealed differential redox PTM patterns, particularly on cysteines within the G6PDH-binding site of OpcA. These environmentally sensitive PTM changes at the interface suggest that thiol modifications in this region form a key regulatory node. More broadly, redox proteomics identified site-specific cysteine modifications under light/dark transitions and circadian cycling, linking distinct redox regimes to discrete PTM states. We employed PTM-Psi simulations to show that thiol PTMs near the OpcA–G6PDH interface are critical for allosteric regulation of G6PDH. The thiol PTMs on OpcA affect a putative gate region in G6PDH for substrate ingress and product egress as well as key hydrogen-bond networks within the active site. We infer that PTMs on OpcA tune the conformational landscapes of individual G6PDH subunits toward functionally relevant configurations according to environmental gradients, biasing the enzyme toward catalytically favorable states. Together, our results reveal a molecular mechanism in which thiol PTMs on OpcA modulate G6PDH structure and function through PTM-induced reorganization of conformational dynamics and allosteric communication. These findings demonstrate that PTM-level regulation provides a critical control layer from genotypes to phenotypes that enables cyanobacteria to rapidly adapt to environmental fluctuations through precise metabolic fine-tuning.

Allosteric regulation↗

Aquaplanets as a Framework for Examination of Aerosol Effects

Although fundamental to the planetary radiative balance, aerosol impacts are highly uncertain in climate simulations because of the uneven distribution of aerosol sources and the complex interactions with radiation and clouds that are difficult to represent in climate models. This study proposes that aquaplanet configurations represent an idealized framework to investigate aerosol effects. As a simple demonstration, a series of aquaplanet simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 shows that the spatial distribution of aerosol emissions changes the aerosol effective radiative forcing even with unchanged total emissions. Some statistical properties of the simulations are presented to show that relatively short model integrations yield robust results. Much of the aerosol effect is shown to arise from aerosol–cloud interactions, especially through rapid adjustments associated with the aerosol lifetime effect that alter the cloud optical thickness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Historical total ozone radiative forcing derived from CMIP6 simulations

Radiative forcing (RF) time series for total ozone from 1850 up to the present day are calculated based on historical simulations of ozone from 10 climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, RF is calculated for ozone fields prepared as an input for CMIP6 models without chemistry schemes and from a chemical transport model simulation. A radiative kernel for ozone is constructed and used to derive the RF. The ozone RF in 2010 (2005–2014) relative to 1850 is 0.35 W m -2 [0.08–0.61] (5–95% uncertainty range) based on models with both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. One of these models has a negative present-day total ozone RF. Excluding this model, the present-day ozone RF increases to 0.39 W m -2 [0.27–0.51] (5–95% uncertainty range). The rest of the models have RF close to or stronger than the RF time series assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the fifth assessment report with the primary driver likely being the new precursor emissions used in CMIP6. The rapid adjustments beyond stratospheric temperature are estimated to be weak and thus the RF is a good measure of effective radiative forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Time-series RNA metabarcoding of the active Populus tremuloides root microbiome reveals hidden temporal dynamics and dormant core members

The rhizosphere is a critical interface between plant roots and soil, harboring diverse microbial communities that are essential to plant and ecosystem health. Although these communities exhibit stark temporal dynamics, their dormancy/activity transitions remain poorly understood. Such transitions may enable microbes to rapidly adjust functional contributions faster than community turnover alone would allow. Here, we used RNA metabarcoding to characterize the active fraction of microbial communities on the roots of quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) in a time-series study across a natural environmental gradient. We explore cryptic temporal microbial community dynamics of rhizosphere communities at the ecosystem scale. The active rhizosphere bacterial and fungal communities were more temporally dynamic than total communities, while total communities exhibited a stronger response to site-specific conditions. Notably, some core microbiome members were often inactive, yielding a smaller “active core” subset. The fungal endophyte Hyaloscypha finlandica was the only microbe that was both present and active in all plots across all timepoints. Soil temperature strongly influenced both total and active community composition, with the fungal class Eurotiomycetes showing a temperature-dependent seasonal decline in abundance. Together, these results reveal that modulation of microbial activity levels is a key mechanism by which the plant root holobiont responds to environmental variation, and that even dominant symbionts may frequently persist in dormancy within the rhizosphere.

Community Structure and Diversity↗

Climate Sensitivity and the Direct Effect of Carbon Dioxide in a Limited-Area Cloud-Resolving Model

Even in a small domain, it can be prohibitively expensive to run cloud-resolving greenhouse gas warming experiments due to the long equilibration time. Here, a technique is introduced that reduces the computational cost of these experiments by an order of magnitude: instead of fixing the carbon dioxide concentration and equilibrating the sea surface temperature (SST), this technique fixes the SST and equilibrates the carbon dioxide concentration. Using this approach in a cloud-resolving model of radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE), the equilibrated SST is obtained as a continuous function of carbon dioxide concentrations spanning 1 ppmv to nearly 10 000 ppmv, revealing a dramatic increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) at higher temperatures. This increase in ECS is due to both an increase in forcing and a decrease in the feedback parameter. In addition, the technique is used to obtain the direct effects of carbon dioxide (i.e., the rapid adjustments) over a wide range of SSTs. Overall, the direct effect of carbon dioxide offsets a quarter of the increase in precipitation from warming, reduces the shallow cloud fraction by a small amount, and has no impact on convective available potential energy (CAPE).

Romps, David M.↗

Constraining the Twomey effect from satellite observations: issues and perspectives

Abstract. The Twomey effect describes the radiative forcing associated with a change in cloud albedo due to an increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is driven by the perturbation in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd, ant) in liquid-water clouds and is currently understood to exert a cooling effect on climate. The Twomey effect is the key driver in the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions, but rapid adjustments also contribute. These adjustments are essentially the responses of cloud fraction and liquid water path to ΔNd, ant and thus scale approximately with it. While the fundamental physics of the influence of added aerosol particles on the droplet concentration (Nd) is well described by established theory at the particle scale (micrometres), how this relationship is expressed at the large-scale (hundreds of kilometres) perturbation, ΔNd, ant, remains uncertain. The discrepancy between process understanding at particle scale and insufficient quantification at the climate-relevant large scale is caused by co-variability of aerosol particles and updraught velocity and by droplet sink processes. These operate at scales on the order of tens of metres at which only localised observations are available and at which no approach yet exists to quantify the anthropogenic perturbation. Different atmospheric models suggest diverse magnitudes of the Twomey effect even when applying the same anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbation. Thus, observational data are needed to quantify and constrain the Twomey effect. At the global scale, this means satellite data. There are four key uncertainties in determining ΔNd, ant, namely the quantification of (i) the cloud-active aerosol – the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations at or above cloud base, (ii) Nd, (iii) the statistical approach for inferring the sensitivity of Nd to aerosol particles from the satellite data and (iv) uncertainty in the anthropogenic perturbation to CCN concentrations, which is not easily accessible from observational data. This review discusses deficiencies of current approaches for the different aspects of the problem and proposes several ways forward: in terms of CCN, retrievals of optical quantities such as aerosol optical depth suffer from a lack of vertical resolution, size and hygroscopicity information, non-direct relation to the concentration of aerosols, difficulty to quantify it within or below clouds, and the problem of insufficient sensitivity at low concentrations, in addition to retrieval errors. A future path forward can include utilising co-located polarimeter and lidar instruments, ideally including high-spectral-resolution lidar capability at two wavelengths to maximise vertically resolved size distribution information content. In terms of Nd, a key problem is the lack of operational retrievals of this quantity and the inaccuracy of the retrieval especially in broken-cloud regimes. As for the Nd-to-CCN sensitivity, key issues are the updraught distributions and the role of Nd sink processes, for which empirical assessments for specific cloud regimes are currently the best solutions. These considerations point to the conclusion that past studies using existing approaches have likely underestimated the true sensitivity and, thus, the radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗