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Parsimonious Inference Information-Theoretic Foundations for a Complete Theory of Machine Learning (CIS-LDRD Project 218313 Final Technical Report)
This work examines how we may cast machine learning within a complete Bayesian framework to quantify and suppress explanatory complexity from first principles. Our investigation into both the philosophy and mathematics of rational belief leads us to emphasize the critical role of Bayesian inference in learning well-justified predictions within a rigorous and complete extended logic. The Bayesian framework allows us to coherently account for evidence in the learned plausibility of potential explanations. As an extended logic, the Bayesian paradigm regards probability as a notion of degrees of truth. In order to satisfy critical properties of probability as a coherent measure, as well as maintain consistency with binary propositional logic, we arrive at Bayes' Theorem as the only justifiable mechanism to update our beliefs to account for empiracle evidence. Yet, in the machine learning paradigm, where explanations are unconstrained algorithmic abstractions, we arrive at a critical challenge: Bayesian inference requires prior belief. Conventional approaches fail to yield a consistent framework in which we could compare prior plausibility among the infinities of potential choices in learning architectures. The difficulty of articulating well-justified prior belief over abstract models is the provinence of memorization in traditional machine learning training practices. This becomes exceptionally problematic in the context of limited datasets, when we wish to learn justifiable predictions from only a small amount of data.
Prioritization of engineering support requests and advanced technology projects using decision support and industrial engineering models
The evaluation and prioritization of Engineering Support Requests (ESR's) is a particularly difficult task at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) -- Shuttle Project Engineering Office. This difficulty is due to the complexities inherent in the evaluation process and the lack of structured information. The evaluation process must consider a multitude of relevant pieces of information concerning Safety, Supportability, O&M Cost Savings, Process Enhancement, Reliability, and Implementation. Various analytical and normative models developed over the past have helped decision makers at KSC utilize large volumes of information in the evaluation of ESR's. The purpose of this project is to build on the existing methodologies and develop a multiple criteria decision support system that captures the decision maker's beliefs through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes. The model utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), subjective probabilities, the entropy concept, and Maximize Agreement Heuristic (MAH) to enhance the decision maker's intuition in evaluating a set of ESR's.
CROSS: A GDSS for the Evaluation and Prioritization of Engineering Support Requests and Advanced Technology Projects at NASA
Objective evaluation and prioritization of engineering support requests (ESRs) is a difficult task at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Shuttle Project Engineering Office. The difficulty arises from the complexities inherent in the evaluation process and the lack of structured information. The purpose of this project is to implement the consensus ranking organizational support system (CROSS), a multiple criteria decision support system (DSS) developed at KSC that captures the decision maker's beliefs through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes. CROSS utilizes the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), subjective probabilities, entropy concept, and maximize agreement heuristic (MAH) to enhance the decision maker's intuition in evaluation ESRs. Some of the preliminary goals of the project are to: (1) revisit the structure of the ground systems working team (GWST) steering committee, (2) develop a template for ESR originators to provide more comple and consistent information to the GSWT steering committee members to eliminate the need for a facilitator, (3) develop an objective and structured process for the initial screening of ESRs, (4) extensive training of the stakeholders and the GWST steering committee to eliminate the need for a facilitator, (5) automate the process as much as possible, (6) create an environment to compile project success factor data on ESRs and move towards a disciplined system that could be used to address supportability threshold issues at the KSC, and (7) investigate the possibility of an organization-wide implementation of CROSS.
A Subjective Assessment of Alternative Mission Architecture Operations Concepts for the Human Exploration of Mars at NASA Using a Three-Dimensional Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model
The primary driver for developing missions to send humans to other planets is to generate significant scientific return. NASA plans human planetary explorations with an acceptable level of risk consistent with other manned operations. Space exploration risks can not be completely eliminated. Therefore, an acceptable level of cost, technical, safety, schedule, and political risks and benefits must be established for exploratory missions. This study uses a three-dimensional multi-criteria decision making model to identify the risks and benefits associated with three alternative mission architecture operations concepts for the human exploration of Mars identified by the Mission Operations Directorate at Johnson Space Center. The three alternatives considered in this study include split, combo lander, and dual scenarios. The model considers the seven phases of the mission including: 1) Earth Vicinity/Departure; 2) Mars Transfer; 3) Mars Arrival; 4) Planetary Surface; 5) Mars Vicinity/Departure; 6) Earth Transfer; and 7) Earth Arrival. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and subjective probability estimation are used to captures the experts belief concerning the risks and benefits of the three alternative scenarios through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes.
Applicability of Markets to Global Scheduling in Grids: Critical Examination of General Equilibrium Theory and Market Folklore
Markets are often considered superior to other global scheduling mechanisms for distributed computing systems. This claim is supported by: a casual observation from our every-day life that markets successfully equilibrate supply and demand, and the features of markets which originate in the general equilibrium theory, e.g., efficiency and the lack of necessity of 2 central controller. This paper describes why such beliefs in markets are not warranted. It does so by examining the general equilibrium theory, in terms of scope, abstraction, and interpretation. Not only does the general equilibrium theory fail to provide a satisfactory explanation of actual economies, including a computing-resource economy, it also falls short of supplying theoretical foundations for commonly held views of market desirability. This paper also points out that the argument for the desirability of markets involves circular reasoning and that the desirability can be established only vis-a-vis a scheduling goal. Finally, recasting the conclusion of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem as that for global scheduling, we conclude that there exists no market-based scheduler that is rational (in the sense defined in microeconomic theory), takes into account utility of more than one user, and yet yields a Pareto-optimal outcome for arbitrary user utility functions.
Unveiling the mechanism of the photocatalytic reduction of CO 2 to formate promoted by porphyrinic Zr-based metal–organic frameworks
A complete picture of the reaction mechanism responsible for the photocatalytic reduction of CO 2 into formate promoted by the Zr-based porphyrinic MOF-545 (PCN-222) in acetonitrile/triethanolamine (CH 3 CN/TEOA) solutions is provided for the first time by combining experimental and computational approaches. Firstly, we combined the metalation of the porphyrin linkers and the synthesis under microwave conditions of nano-sized materials (150–200 nm) to reach one of the highest CO 2 RR activities under visible light irradiation reported so far for a MOF-based catalyst in terms of formate production (identified in all cases as the sole product), i.e., 6000 μmol g –1 after 4 h for the NanoMOF-545(Fe). A thorough mechanistic study of CO 2 RR is provided afterwards, which elucidated the respective roles of TEOA, porphyrin linkers and Zr 6 -nodes. Photophysical measurements of both metalated and unmetalated MOFs excluded the prevailing belief of ligand-to-Zr 6 cluster charge-transfer state formation, while bulk photolysis proved that the porphyrinic linkers of the MOF promote the photooxidation of TEOA under catalytic conditions. DFT calculations allowed characterization with atomistic detail of a novel reaction mechanism whereby TEOA˙ radicals generated photochemically at the porphyrinic linkers play the crucial role of transferring a formal hydride to a CO 2 molecule activated on a Zr IV center, which acts as a Lewis acid. Notably, this mechanism backed by additional experimental assays explains the experimental activity trends observed upon metalation, on the basis of the ability of the materials to accomplish the photo-oxidation of TEOA. Here, while elucidating the reaction pathways at work in Zr 6 -based MOFs with chromophore linkers, the findings reported herein pinpoint new mechanistic features capable of rationalizing other light-driven reactions making use of TEOA (or structurally related donors) and ultimately, inspire the bottom-up design of new catalysts and catalytic routes.