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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting the evolution of biomass bulk density through feedstock preprocessing: Discrete element modeling, regression analysis, and pilot-scale validation

Bulk density is an important material property of biomass feedstocks, influencing handling, storage, transport costs, and conversion efficiency. In this study, predictive regression models for loose and tapped bulk densities of Alamo and Cave-in-Rock switchgrass are developed using a comprehensive dataset generated via calibrated bonded-sphere discrete element method (DEM) simulations. Here, a key contribution of this study is the use of a DEM-based approach, which correlates density with moisture content and particle size distribution parameters and enables analysis across a continuous particle size range, overcoming limitations of purely experimental data. For comparison, regression models are also developed using only experimental data from pilot-scale runs at the Biomass Feedstock National User Facility at Idaho National Laboratory. Validation against pilot-scale data showed reasonable prediction accuracy for both model types, particularly for smaller particle sizes (post-secondary grinding). While the experimental model showed slightly better performance matching the validation data in some cases, the DEM-based model benefits from a much larger dataset, reduced predictor multicollinearity, and continuous parameter coverage, highlighting the utility of validated simulation models for developing robust predictive tools for biomass preprocessing applications.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meta‐Analysis and Regression Modeling of the Impacts of Four Indoor Environmental Quality Metrics on Office Performance

Awareness of how buildings interact with the occupant experience—especially human performance—is becoming more prevalent, as seen by increasing interest and investment in healthy built environments. However, there is a need to synthesize the wide array of existing indoor environmental assessment and performance research in a way that can translate directly to building design and operation. Existing research in this area typically focuses on a single isolated metric and has not focused on making the results utilizable by building practitioners. The aim of this research is to investigate existing office performance literature through meta‐analyses and produce regression models for four indoor environmental quality (IEQ) metrics to support critical decision‐making for building operation and renovation. To reach this aim, a literature review was conducted to identify studies that measure the impact of changing ventilation rate, temperature, horizontal illuminance, and noise level in offices on occupant task performance. This repository of field and laboratory studies was analyzed to visualize the trends between the selected IEQ metrics and task performance. The temperature, ventilation rate, and horizontal illuminance regression models showed clear improvement potential when modifying indoor conditions toward the defined high‐performance range, while the regression model for noise level was inconclusive. The discussion notes the importance of designing holistically for all components of these IEQ categories to utilize the results, for example, good filtration on outdoor air for quantifying ventilation impact and uniform overhead lighting with low contrast for quantifying horizontal illuminance impact. The novelty of this work is in considering multiple facets of the indoor environment under a single, unified analysis schema and producing IEQ‐based performance gains that can directly inform cost‐benefit analyses of building design and renovation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

Regression model estimation of early season crop proportions: North Dakota, some preliminary results

To estimate crop proportions early in the season, an approach is proposed based on: use of a regression-based prediction equation to obtain an a priori estimate for specific major crop groups; modification of this estimate using current-year LANDSAT and weather data; and a breakdown of the major crop groups into specific crops by regression models. Results from the development and evaluation of appropriate regression models for the first portion of the proposed approach are presented. The results show that the model predicts 1980 crop proportions very well at both county and crop reporting district levels. In terms of planted acreage, the model underpredicted 9.1 percent of the 1980 published data on planted acreage at the county level. It predicted almost exactly the 1980 published data on planted acreage at the crop reporting district level and overpredicted the planted acreage by just 0.92 percent.

Lin, K. K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data and code from: Multivariate bayesian regression model for predicting disposed ash composition at U.S. coal fired power stations

This dataset contains the code and data files needed for implementation of a Multivariate Bayesian Regression model, described in Jin et al. (2025), for the historical prediction of the chemical composition of disposed coal ash at U.S. coal fired power plants as a function of annualized coal purchase data. The integrated coal supply data file (CoalSupplyDataset.csv) represents a compilation of monthly fuel purchase records for the period 1973-2022 at major U.S. power stations. These records were obtained from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The CSV file also contains, for each coal purchase record, the coal region of the mine as defined by the U.S. Geological Survey. Data entry errors and data gaps in the EIA records were corrected as described in Jin et al. This CSV file represents the integrated coal supply data after corrections were made. The model structure and fitting parameters are encoded in pickle file format (Bayesian.pkl). The model was developed with the coal supply data and coal ash composition data, apportioned according to the Stratified Shuffle Split for training and testing subsets. The model was built using Python and the PyMC library. Reference Publication: Jin, Z.; Huang, J.; Hower, J.C.; Hsu-Kim, H.(2025). Predictive Assessment of the Chemical Composition of Coal Ash in Reserve at U.S. Disposal Sites. Environmental Science & Technology.

Coal ash composition↗
NASA NTRS1976

LACIE: Yield-weather regression models for the Canadian prairies

Most of the variability in wheat production is due to weather fluctuations. Climatic differences within the region account for a large portion of the variability in yields for different parts of the region. Separate regression models were developed for each of the areas indicated.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗
NASA NTRS1979

Relationship of physiography and snow area to stream discharge

The author has identified the following significant results. A comparison of snowmelt runoff models shows that the accuracy of the Tangborn model and regression models is greater if the test data falls within the range of calibration than if the test data lies outside the range of calibration data. The regression models are significantly more accurate for forecasts of 60 days or more than for shorter prediction periods. The Tangborn model is more accurate for forecasts of 90 days or more than for shorter prediction periods. The Martinec model is more accurate for forecasts of one or two days than for periods of 3,5,10, or 15 days. Accuracy of the long-term models seems to be independent of forecast data. The sufficiency of the calibration data base is a function not only of the number of years of record but also of the accuracy with which the calibration years represent the total population of data years. Twelve years appears to be a sufficient length of record for each of the models considered, as long as the twelve years are representative of the population.

Mccuen, R. H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

SLAB: simultaneous labeling and binding affinity prediction for protein–ligand structures

Machine learning models are often used as scoring functions to predict the binding affinity of a protein–ligand complex. These models are trained with limited amounts of data with experimentally measured binding affinity values. A large number of compounds are labeled inactive through single-concentration screens without measuring binding affinities. These inactive compounds, along with the active ones, can be used to train binary classification models, while regression models are trained using compounds with binding affinities only. However, the classification and regression tasks are often handled separately, without sharing the learned feature representations. In this paper, we propose a novel model architecture that jointly performs regression and classification objectives, aiming to maximize data utilization and improve predictive performance by leveraging two complementary tasks. In our setup, the regression yields the binding affinity, whereas the classification task yields the label as active or inactive. We demonstrate our method using PDBbind, the standard 3D structure database, as well as a dataset of flavivirus protease compounds with binding affinity data. Our experiments show that the new joint training strategy improves the accuracy of the model, increasing applicability in various practical drug screening scenarios.

Biological and medical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detection of Diversion in a Realistic Heat Pipe Microreactor Using Supervised Machine Learning

Microreactors (MRs) pose new challenges for international safeguards. Here, their small size and mass reproducibility make them ideal for deployment in greater numbers and in remote locations, making the job of safeguards inspectors more challenging. Machine learning (ML) is currently being applied to many fields to augment human performance and increase automation; in particular, ML could be used to provide insight for international inspectors to help detect the diversion of nuclear fuel from MR cores. Four ML model types (k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, random forest, and histogram-based gradient boosted ensemble) were trained on integrated flux and critical control drum angle data generated with Serpent 2 for a realistic heat pipe MR design, achieving nearly 100% binary classification accuracy of nominal and diversion core configurations by the end of 1 full power year for three of the four model types. Regression model variants were also trained, using the same input data, for predicting the number of fuel pins diverted. Root-mean-square errors below 5% of the total number of fuel pins were achieved by the 1 full power year mark for all models.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1974

Reflectance of vegetation, soil, and water

The author has identified the following significant results. The Kubelka-Munk model, a regression model, and a combination of these models were used to extract plant, soil, and shadow reflectance components of vegetated surfaces. The combination model was superior to the others; it explained 86% of the variation in band 5 reflectance of corn and sorghum, and 90% of the variation in band 6 reflectance of cotton. A fractional shadow term substantially increased the proportion of the digital count sum of squares explained when plant parameters alone explained 85% or less of the variation. Overall recognition of 94 agricultural fields using simultaneously acquired aircraft and spacecraft MSS data was 61.8 and 62.8%, respectively; recognition of vegetable fields larger than 10 acres and taller than 25 cm, rose to 88.9 and 100% for aircraft and spacecraft, respectively. Agriculture and rangeland, were well discriminated for the entire county but level 2 categories of vegetables, citrus, and idle cropland, except for citrus, were not.

Wiegand, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Accelerated test modeling

Cycle life regression model, cycle life prediction model, and acceleration factors are discussed. A method was presented to: (1) select a mathematical model; (2) determine model coefficients using accelerated test data; (3) test model fit of the accelerated test data; and (4) predict normal packs.

Schwartz, D.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning–Augmented Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy for Spectral Discrimination of Iron Oxalates

Enhanced characterization and phase identification of post-PUREX Pu Oxalates (PuOXA) are pivotal for nonproliferation and pre-detonation nuclear forensics. Despite significant advances in the characterization of PuO 2 samples, little is known about the impact of both the chemical structure and oxidation states of PuOXA (i.e., Pu(III) and Pu(IV)) have on optical emission signatures. Here, we demonstrate the analytical capabilities of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) applied to Fe(II) and Fe(III) oxalate samples as surrogates for PuOXA, highlighting the discriminating features in the LIBS emission spectra arising from differences in the oxidation states within mixed FeOXA samples. We report the enhancement of spectral feature selection using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), which enables the analytical superiority of machine learning algorithms such as Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA), Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Random Forest Regression (RFR) over conventional univariate techniques for phase discrimination and chemometric analysis. Cluster analysis revealed how both matrix effects and laser ablation influence cluster separability by introducing spectral artifacts that misdirect the maximization of variance. PCA-selected emission lines were used in the regression models, demonstrating that both univariate and multivariate linear regression models (i.e., PLSR and SVR) can achieve acceptable performance, with machine learning models outperforming conventional calibration regressions. Furthermore, the application of non-linearly activated PCA-selected emission lines illustrates how simplifying the data while retaining captured variance enables the use of less complex and more computationally efficient models. Furthermore, this is particularly evident in the underperformance of RFR, which suffers from increased computational costs and overfitting owing to its high complexity.

Oxalates↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prediction of Creep-Induced Strain Using a Symbolic Regression-Based Model

Material creep under high-temperature conditions limits the lifetime and safety of structural systems such as advanced nuclear reactors. Conventional creep testing is slow and often produces inconsistent results across nominally identical experiments, making lifetime prediction uncertain. Here, to address these challenges, this work develops a data-driven symbolic regression (SR) model that consolidates results from duplicate creep tests and predicts the remaining strain-time curve of an ongoing experiment. The method uses piece-wise multi-objective SR with physical constraints to generate analytic, interpretable functions describing transient creep strain. Applied to Inconel Alloy 617 data, the approach achieved relative mean absolute errors of 1.0–9.5%, providing closed-form predictions of strain evolution. These results demonstrate a first step toward reducing the duration and cost of long-term creep testing while retaining physically interpretable model forms.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying mean, variability, and uncertainty in indoor radon exposure in Pennsylvania using random forest and quantile regression forest models

Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas that poses a serious health risk as the primary cause of lung cancer in non-smokers. Despite the well-known adverse association with health outcomes, current radon exposure assessments are limited to county-level or average-level estimates, which fail to capture regional variability. This study uses Machine Learning models, including Random Forest (RF) and Quantile Regression Forest (QRF), to estimate the indoor radon concentrations at the ZCTA (Zip code tabulation area)-level and characterize uncertainties in model estimates. Incorporating geological, meteorological, and building-specific data, the models aim to improve radon risk assessment by capturing mean exposure, variability, and extreme concentration levels. Processed radon test data (n = 718,111) were analyzed using average, variability, and quantile prediction methods. Models that estimate the average radon exposure at the ZCTA-level can yield promising model-fit results, but they do not capture the underlying variability of indoor radon exposure within a ZCTA. We utilize volatility analyses to identify characteristics indicative of high variability of indoor radon exposure. We also show that a QRF model can be used to estimate upper quantiles of residential radon exposure, thereby uncovering localized areas of elevated exposure that were not apparent in mean estimates. The results highlighted the need for a deep characterization of exposure risk and show that regions with moderate average exposure levels could still harbor extreme outliers with implications for evaluating health risks. Utilizing multiple radon exposure models allows for a deeper characterization of radon risk within a geographic area and can better identify high-risk areas. The results from this study provide a foundation for developing mitigation strategies and examining associations between radon exposure and health outcomes at fine scales. Future research should extend the geographic scope and incorporate additional environmental risk factors to establish a comprehensive framework for risk assessment.

Lee, Heechan [ORNL]↗