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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Presentation: Sensor Anomaly Detection for Nuclear Reactor Systems Utilizing Linear Regression and K-Means Unsupervised Machine Learning: An overview of methods and results

This presentation is a culmination of work which has occurred over the course of a 10-week internship. Anomaly detection methods must be both robust enough to detect subtle anomalies yet not so sensitive to report false positives, which would result significant loss of revenue. Methods currently being developed for autonomous systems are often pursuing a Digital Twin method, which will look at the entire system and model it as a whole. This presentation, however, focuses less on direct application to an NPP, rather acting as a proof of concept for the methods developed. For the project, we look to develop methods to analyze steady-state data and report anomalies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensor Anomaly Detection for Nuclear Reactor Systems Utilizing Linear Regression and K-Means Unsupervised Machine Learning

Nuclear reactors and related systems are becoming increasingly complex due to advancing technologies in next-generation power reactors. This increased complexity necessitates enhanced automation and data management capabilities. To successfully realize autonomous systems, methods must be developed to handle vast volumes of data and effectively distinguish anomalous data from noise and expected data. While impressive models utilizing digital twins and similar approaches are under development, here we propose a simplified model for analyzing fundamental methods and techniques. Initially, we created a general dataset by using initial data from PCTRAN in order to represent ideal steady-state conditions. We then inserted anomalies based on prevalent sensor anomaly types (e.g., point anomalies, linear drift, and downward deviations), along with unusual anomalies such as exponential drift and upward deviations. To detect anomalies, we developed a program that employs data partitioning and linear regression to preprocess and filter the anomalous data. A K-Means machine learning (ML) method was then applied to separate and count the data within the anomalous partition. The results from all datasets—apart from exponential growth—demonstrated positive outcomes, with each returning multiple instances of greaterthan-95% accuracy. We conducted further investigations using Idaho National Laboratory’s RAVEN software to perform a sensitivity analysis on the input variables (R 2 Tolerance, Slope Tolerance, and Window Size) and found that the output variables (Accuracy and Time) were most sensitive to the Window Size. Despite the promising results published, further development is required to effectively apply these methods to nuclear systems. Nevertheless, the strengths of this approach are evident and hold promise for future applications in the field.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning Functions Varying along a Central Subspace

Many functions of interest are in a high-dimensional space but exhibit low-dimensional structures. This paper studies regression of an s-Hölder function in $R^D$ which varies along a central subspace of dimension $d$ while $d \ll D$. A direct approximation of $f$ in $R^D$ with an accuracy $\varepsilon$ requires the number of samples in the order of $\varepsilon^{-(2s+D)/s}$. In this paper, we analyze the generalized contour regression (GCR) algorithm for the estimation of the central subspace and use piecewise polynomials for function approximation. GCR is among the best estimators for the central subspace, but its sample complexity is an open question. In this paper, we partially answer this questions by proving that if a variance quantity is exactly known, GCR leads to a mean squared estimation error of $O(n^{-1})$ for the central subspace. The estimation error of this variance quantity is also given in this paper. The mean squared regression error of $f$ is proved to be in the order of $(n/\log n)^{-\frac{2s}{2s+d}}$, where the exponent depends on the dimension of the central subspace instead of the ambient space . This result demonstrates that GCR is effective in learning the low-dimensional central subspace. We also propose a modified GCR with improved efficiency. Here, the convergence rate is validated through several numerical experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electrical Conductivities and Association Constants in Dilute Aqueous NdCl 3 Solutions from 298 to 523 K along an Isobar of 25 MPa

Here, electrical measurements were performed in dilute aqueous NdCl 3 solutions from 298 to 523 K along the 25 MPa isobar to obtain limiting conductivities and association constants. The specific conductivity data were estimated using a continuous flow cell and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) correction algorithm. The limiting conductivities for the salts in water were derived by regressing the mean spherical approximation model and speciation analyses based on the MCMC algorithm and the deep earth water model. The limiting conductivities derived from the experimental data were correlated using the Zimmerman-Arcis-Tremaine correlation and agreed well with a predictive correlation proposed by Smolyakov, Anderko, and Lencka. Only the first association constant between neodymium and chloride could be derived at low temperatures (<373 K) due to the apparent large statistical uncertainty of the second association constant. Above 373 K, both association constants could be derived and show a reasonable agreement with Migdisov and Williams-Jones and Gammons et al.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

An finite element analysis surrogate model with boundary oriented graph embedding approach for rapid design

Abstract In this work, we present a boundary oriented graph embedding (BOGE) approach for the graph neural network to assist in rapid design and digital prototyping. The cantilever beam problem has been solved as an example to validate its potential of providing physical field results and optimized designs using only 10 ms. Providing shortcuts for both boundary elements and local neighbor elements, the BOGE approach can embed unstructured mesh elements into the graph and performs an efficient regression on large-scale triangular-mesh-based finite element analysis (FEA) results, which cannot be realized by other machine-learning-based surrogate methods. It has the potential to serve as a surrogate model for other boundary value problems. Focusing on the cantilever beam problem, the BOGE approach with 3-layer DeepGCN model achieves the regression with mean square error (MSE) of 0.011 706 (2.41% mean absolute percentage error) for stress field prediction and 0.002 735 MSE (with 1.58% elements having error larger than 0.01) for topological optimization. The overall concept of the BOGE approach paves the way for a general and efficient deep-learning-based FEA simulator that will benefit both industry and Computer Aided Design (CAD) design-related areas.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating county-level lung cancer incidence from environmental radiation exposure, PM 2.5 , and other exposures with regression and machine learning models

Characterizing the interplay between exposures shaping the human exposome is vital for uncovering the etiology of complex diseases. For example, cancer risk is modified by a range of multifactorial external environmental exposures. Environmental, socioeconomic, and lifestyle factors all shape lung cancer risk. However, epidemiological studies of radon aimed at identifying populations at high risk for lung cancer often fail to consider multiple exposures simultaneously. For example, moderating factors, such as PM 2.5 , may affect the transport of radon progeny to lung tissue. This ecological analysis leveraged a population-level dataset from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results data (2013–17) to simultaneously investigate the effect of multiple sources of low-dose radiation (gross γ activity and indoor radon) and PM 2.5 on lung cancer incidence rates in the USA. County-level factors (environmental, sociodemographic, lifestyle) were controlled for, and Poisson regression and random forest models were used to assess the association between radon exposure and lung and bronchus cancer incidence rates. Tree-based machine learning (ML) method perform better than traditional regression: Poisson regression: 6.29/7.13 (mean absolute percentage error, MAPE), 12.70/12.77 (root mean square error, RMSE); Poisson random forest regression: 1.22/1.16 (MAPE), 8.01/8.15 (RMSE). The effect of PM 2.5 increased with the concentration of environmental radon, thereby confirming findings from previous studies that investigated the possible synergistic effect of radon and PM 2.5 on health outcomes. In summary, the results demonstrated (1) a need to consider multiple environmental exposures when assessing radon exposure’s association with lung cancer risk, thereby highlighting (1) the importance of an exposomics framework and (2) that employing ML models may capture the complex interplay between environmental exposures and health, as in the case of indoor radon exposure and lung cancer incidence.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initial soil organic carbon stocks govern changes in soil carbon: Reality or artifact?

Abstract Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) storage have the potential to affect global climate; hence identifying environments with a high capacity to gain or lose SOC is of broad interest. Many cross‐site studies have found that SOC‐poor soils tend to gain or retain carbon more readily than SOC‐rich soils. While this pattern may partly reflect reality, here we argue that it can also be created by a pair of statistical artifacts. First, soils that appear SOC‐poor purely due to random variation will tend to yield more moderate SOC estimates upon resampling and hence will appear to accrue or retain more SOC than SOC‐rich soils. This phenomenon is an example of regression to the mean. Second, normalized metrics of SOC change—such as relative rates and response ratios—will by definition show larger changes in SOC at lower initial SOC levels, even when the absolute change in SOC does not depend on initial SOC. These two artifacts create an exaggerated impression that initial SOC stocks are a major control on SOC dynamics. To address this problem, we recommend applying statistical corrections to eliminate the effect of regression to the mean, and avoiding normalized metrics when testing relationships between SOC change and initial SOC. Careful consideration of these issues in future cross‐site studies will support clearer scientific inference that can better inform environmental management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Median Point in Keeling Plot to Reduce the Uncertainty of the Isotopic Composition of Evapotranspiration

Abstract The isotopic composition of evapotranspirationδ ET is a crucial parameter in isotope-based evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning and moisture recycling studies. The Keeling plot method is the most prevalent method to calculateδ ET , though it contains large extrapolated uncertainties from the least squares regression. Traditional Keeling regression uses the mean point of individual measurements. Here, a modified Keeling plot framework was proposed using the median point of individual measurements. We tested theδ ET uncertainty using the mean point [σ ET (mean)] and median point [σ ET (median)]. Multiple resolutions of input and output data from six independent sites were used to test the performance of the two methods. Theσ ET (mean) would be greater thanσ ET (median) when the mean value of inverse vapor concentration () is greater than the median value of inverse vapor concentration []. When applying the filter ofr 2 > 0.8, around 70% ofσ ET (mean) was greater thanσ ET (median). This phenomenon might be due to the normality of the vapor concentrationC υ producing the asymmetric distribution of 1/C υ . The median method could perform significantly better than the mean method when inputting high-resolution measurements (e.g., 1 Hz) and when the water vapor concentrationC υ is relatively low. Compared to the mean method, applying the median method could on average reduce 6.88% of ET partitioning uncertainties and could on average reduce 9.00% of moisture recycling uncertainties. This study provided a new insight of the Keeling plot method and emphasized handling model output uncertainty from multiple perspectives instead of only from input parameters.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

PyTREES

PyTREES (Python tool for Training/Testing Robust Explainable Ensembles on Spectra) is software that implements a data-driven approach to predicting the amount of specific oxides present in materials samples of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS); such as from the ChemCam instrument suite onboard the NASA Curiosity rover. PyTREES is designed to input LIBS data in the format provided by the ChemCam team [1]. PyTREES then applies appropriate pre-processing to this data [2], and implements several regression methods for predicting oxides from spectra. The regression methods include: ensemble methods (random forest, extra trees, and gradient boosting regression) and blended submodels using the “double blending” technique. PyTREES additionally implements methods for quantifying the importance of features in regression model: (1) mean decrease in impurity (MDI) and (2) permutation importance to investigate the wavelengths used by the regression methods. [1] Gasda et al. (2021). Spectrochim Acta B, 181, 106223. [2] Clegg et al. (2017). Spectrochim Acta B , 129, 64–85.

Oyen, Diane↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Water Table Elevations Using Historical Rasters as Prior Information 2019 - 20430

In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Collective Risk Ranking of Highway Segments on the Basis of Severity-Weighted Crash Rates

This study is intended to focus on the major factors affecting traffic crash rates and severity levels, in addition to identifying crash-prone locations (i.e., black spots) based on the two indicators. The available crash data for different road segments used for the analysis were obtained from the Washington state database provided by the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) for the years 2006 to 2011. A Random Forest (RF) classifier was used to predict the outcome level of crash severity, while crash rates were predicted by applying RF regressor. Certain features were selected for each model besides the abstraction of new features to check if there are unobserved correlations affecting the independent variables, such as accounting for the number and weight of crashes within 1 km2 area by implementing the Getis-Ord Gi∗ index. Moreover, to calculate the collective risk (CR) score, crash rates were adjusted to incorporate crash severity weights (cost per severity type) and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) bias via Empirical Bayes (EB) method. Finally, segments were ranked according to their CR score.

Li, Dawei↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficacy of a portable, moderate-resolution, fast-scanning differential mobility analyzer for ambient aerosol size distribution measurements

Abstract. Ambient aerosol size distributions obtained with a compact scanning mobility analyzer, the “Spider” differential mobility analyzer (DMA), are compared to those obtained with a conventional mobility analyzer, with specific attention to the effect of mobility resolution on the measured size distribution parameters. The Spider is a 12 cm diameter radial differential mobility analyzer that spans the 10–500 nm size range with 30 s mobility scans. It achieves its compact size by operating at a nominal mobility resolution R=3 (sheath flow = 0.9 L min−1; aerosol flow = 0.3 L min−1) in place of the higher ratio of sheath flow to aerosol flow commonly used. The question addressed here is whether the lower resolution is sufficient to capture key characteristics of ambient aerosol size distributions. The Spider, operated at R=3 with 30 s up- and downscans, was co-located with a TSI 3081 long-column mobility analyzer, operated at R=10 with a 360 s sampling duty cycle. Ambient aerosol data were collected over 26 consecutive days of continuous operation, in Pasadena, CA. Over the 17–500 nm size range, the two instruments exhibit excellent correlation in the total particle number concentrations and geometric mean diameters, with regression slopes of 1.13 and 1.00, respectively. Our results suggest that particle sizing at a lower resolution than typically employed may be sufficient to obtain key properties of ambient size distributions, at least for these two moments of the size distribution. Moreover, it enables better counting statistics, as the wider transfer function for a given aerosol flow rate results in a higher counting rate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Testing the reliability of interpretable neural networks in geoscience using the Madden–Julian oscillation

Abstract. We test the reliability of two neural network interpretation techniques, backward optimization and layerwise relevance propagation, within geoscientific applications by applying them to a commonly studied geophysical phenomenon, the Madden–Julian oscillation. The Madden–Julian oscillation is a multi-scale pattern within the tropical atmosphere that has been extensively studied over the past decades, which makes it an ideal test case to ensure the interpretability methods can recover the current state of knowledge regarding its spatial structure. The neural networks can, indeed, reproduce the current state of knowledge and can also provide new insights into the seasonality of the Madden–Julian oscillation and its relationships with atmospheric state variables. The neural network identifies the phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation twice as accurately as a linear regression approach, which means that nonlinearities used by the neural network are important to the structure of the Madden–Julian oscillation. Interpretations of the neural network show that it accurately captures the spatial structures of the Madden–Julian oscillation, suggest that the nonlinearities of the Madden–Julian oscillation are manifested through the uniqueness of each event, and offer physically meaningful insights into its relationship with atmospheric state variables. We also use the interpretations to identify the seasonality of the Madden–Julian oscillation and find that the conventionally defined extended seasons should be shifted later by 1 month. More generally, this study suggests that neural networks can be reliably interpreted for geoscientific applications and may thereby serve as a dependable method for testing geoscientific hypotheses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Removal of correlated background in a high-order harmonic transient absorption spectra with principal component regression

We demonstrate a 40x mean noise power reduction (NPR) in core-to-valence extreme ultraviolet (XUV) femtosecond transient absorption spectroscopy with a high harmonic generation (HHG) light source. An adaptive iteratively reweighted principal component regression (airPCR) is used to analyze and suppress spectrally correlated HHG intensity fluctuations. The technique requires significantly less user input and leads to a higher mean NPR than a previously introduced edge-pixel PCR method that relies on the manual identification of signal-free spectral regions. Both techniques are applied in a time-resolved XUV absorption study of the 2 snp 1 P o ( n ≥ 2) autoionizing Rydberg states of helium, demonstrating sub-10 −3 optical density sensitivity.

Faccialà, Davide (ORCID:0000000250720394)↗
DOE OSTI2022

In Silico Prediction of the Toxicity of Nitroaromatic Compounds: Application of Ensemble Learning QSAR Approach

In this work, a dataset of more than 200 nitroaromatic compounds is used to develop Quantitative Structure–Activity Relationship (QSAR) models for the estimation of in vivo toxicity based on 50% lethal dose to rats (LD 50 ). An initial set of 4885 molecular descriptors was generated and applied to build Support Vector Regression (SVR) models. The best two SVR models, SVR_A and SVR_B, were selected to build an Ensemble Model by means of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). The obtained Ensemble Model showed improved performance over the base SVR models in the training set (R 2 = 0.88), validation set (R 2 = 0.95), and true external test set (R 2 = 0.92). The models were also internally validated by 5-fold cross-validation and Y-scrambling experiments, showing that the models have high levels of goodness-of-fit, robustness and predictivity. The contribution of descriptors to the toxicity in the models was assessed using the Accumulated Local Effect (ALE) technique. The proposed approach provides an important tool to assess toxicity of nitroaromatic compounds, based on the ensemble QSAR model and the structural relationship to toxicity by analyzed contribution of the involved descriptors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Mean-Corrected Recursive Estimation-Based Optimal DER Dispatch for Distribution System Voltage Control

Recent advances in smart inverters offer opportunities to mitigate adverse grid impacts caused by high penetrations of distributed photovoltaics (PV) in distribution grids, such as voltage violations. Here, this paper proposes a novel measurement-driven optimal power flow (OPF)-based distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) voltage regulation via recursive sensitivity estimation informed coordinated control of distributed PV inverters. The proposed approach leverages available grid and controllable DER measurements, eliminating reliance on system model information while being adaptive and robust to volatile operating conditions. A mean-corrected recursive ridge regression (MCRRR) algorithm is proposed for sensitivity estimation, continuously refining the sensitivity model through a closed-form solution. It effectively manages varying grid operating conditions, such as changes in power injections and topology reconfiguration, to facilitate a time-varying update of the Load Sensitivity Factors (LSF). The proposed approach is formulated as a linear programming (LP) problem and is thus scalable to larger-scale distribution systems. Its effectiveness and efficiency are demonstrated on a realistic distribution feeder with high PV penetrations in Southern California, USA.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Active- and transfer-learning applied to microscale-macroscale coupling to simulate viscoelastic flows

Active- and transfer-learning are applied to microscale dynamics of polymer flows for the multiscale discovery of effective constitutive approximations required in viscoelastic flow simulation. The result is macroscopic rheology directly connected to a microstructural model. Micro and macroscale simulations are adaptively coupled by means of Gaussian process regression (GPR) to run the expensive microscale computations only as necessary. This multiscale method is demonstrated with flows of a polymer solution as a model system. At the microscale level dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) is employed to model the fluid as a suspension of bead-spring micro-structures subjected to steady shear flow. The results yield the non-Newtonian viscosity and the first normal stress difference at strain rates as training data used in a GPR model. DPD parameters are calibrated with respect to experimental data for a real polymer solution. Compliance with these data requires adjustment of the DPD model's cutoff radius, which then becomes a function of the second invariant of the strain rate tensor. The FENE-P model is chosen for the macroscale description using the spectral element method (SEM) to simulate channel flow and flow past a circular cylinder. The DPD results at the lowest possible shear strain rate yield an estimate of the zero-shear rate viscosity, which allows the initiation of the macroscale flow by SEM as a Newtonian fluid. The resulting strain-rate field is surveyed to determine additional shear strain rate sampling points for the DPD system. This new information allows an initial fitting of parameters of the constitutive equation followed by new SEM simulations at the macroscale. Additionally, guided by active-learning GPR to select new sampling points, this process continues until convergence is achieved. The effectiveness of this new simulation paradigm for viscoelastic flows is tested with different macroscale operating conditions. The effective closure learned in the channel simulation is then transferred directly to the flow past a circular cylinder at low Reynolds number, where the results show that only two additional DPD simulations are required to achieve a satisfactory constitutive model. With an increase of the Reynolds number, the active-learning scheme automatically detects the inaccuracy of the learned constitutive model, and initiates additional DPD simulations for the extra data needed to once again close the microscale-macroscale coupled system. This new paradigm of active- and transfer-learning for multiscale modeling is readily applicable to other microscale-macroscale coupled simulations of complex fluids and other materials. Furthermore, the coupling between microscale and macroscale solvers can be seamlessly implemented with our open source multiscale universal interface (MUI) library.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

QUBO formulations for training machine learning models

Abstract Training machine learning models on classical computers is usually a time and compute intensive process. With Moore’s law nearing its inevitable end and an ever-increasing demand for large-scale data analysis using machine learning, we must leverage non-conventional computing paradigms like quantum computing to train machine learning models efficiently. Adiabatic quantum computers can approximately solve NP-hard problems, such as the quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO), faster than classical computers. Since many machine learning problems are also NP-hard, we believe adiabatic quantum computers might be instrumental in training machine learning models efficiently in the post Moore’s law era. In order to solve problems on adiabatic quantum computers, they must be formulated as QUBO problems, which is very challenging. In this paper, we formulate the training problems of three machine learning models—linear regression, support vector machine (SVM) and balanced k-means clustering—as QUBO problems, making them conducive to be trained on adiabatic quantum computers. We also analyze the computational complexities of our formulations and compare them to corresponding state-of-the-art classical approaches. We show that the time and space complexities of our formulations are better (in case of SVM and balanced k-means clustering) or equivalent (in case of linear regression) to their classical counterparts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗