Results for “reliability, risk, and resilience”

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Recommendations to Advance Space Trusted Autonomy

While the various space agencies of the U.S. federal government have distinctly different visions for future operational space systems, all share important foundational commonalities: improve mission performance, reduce mission costs, incorporate technology advances more rapidly, increase reliability and resiliency, reduce risk, and adapt to anomalies and environmental hazards. These common needs, combined with the maturation of autonomous technology and the prospect of leveraging autonomous systems to address these needs, have led each agency to consider how and when to implement increasing levels of autonomy in their space systems. Simultaneously, the related question of how to determine the trustworthiness of an autonomous system is also escalating in significance.

Christopher A Jones↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Foundational Concepts in Simulation-Based Resilience Analysis and Design

Resilience is a topic of increasing interest–with ever-present calls from policymakers to increase the resilience of complex systems and infrastructure. However, resilience as a concept can be confusing, because of a lack of a common unified definition and frame of reference. Sometimes it can appear as if resilience analysis is merely duplicating other, more mature fields such as safety, reliability, or risk, while other times it seems as if resilience is providing an “alternative” view with limited rigor. To better understand the resilience concept (and its relation to the broader field of risk management), this paper will present the perspective of simulation-based resilience analysis and design, including some of the foundational precepts and resultant concepts defining the resilience concept. It will further present the motivation for using simulation to understand resilience and highlight some ongoing work and research challenges in this area. From this frame of reference, one can better understand the field of resilience, including how different aspects and definitions of resilience relate to each other, and how resilience relates to broader design considerations and practices.

resilience↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Foundational Concepts in Simulation-Based Resilience Analysis and Design

Resilience is a topic of increasing interest–with ever-present calls from policymakers to increase the resilience of complex systems and infrastructure. However, resilience as a concept can be confusing, because of a lack of a common unified definition and frame of reference. Sometimes it can appear as if resilience analysis is merely duplicating other, more mature fields such as safety, reliability, or risk, while other times it seems as if resilience is providing an “alternative” view with limited rigor. To better understand the resilience concept (and its relation to the broader field of risk management), this paper will present the perspective of simulation-based resilience analysis and design, including some of the foundational precepts and resultant concepts defining the resilience concept. It will further present the motivation for using simulation to understand resilience and highlight some ongoing work and research challenges in this area. From this frame of reference, one can better understand the field of resilience, including how different aspects and definitions of resilience relate to each other, and how resilience relates to broader design considerations and practices.

resilience↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Viability of Using GEOS-Forecast Product for Landslides Forecasting: A Step Toward Early Warning System

Landslides across the globe are mostly triggered by extreme rainfall events affecting infrastructure, transportation and livelihoods. The risks are rarely quantified due to lack of data, analytical skills and limited modeling techniques. Knowledge of local to global scale landslide risks provides communities and national agencies the ability to adapt disaster management practices to mitigate and recover from these hazards. In order to minimize the risks and improve characterization of community resilience to landslides, it is vital to have reliable information about the factors triggering landslides such as rainfall, well ahead in time. Forecasting potential landslide activity and impacts can be achieved through reliable precipitation forecast models. However, it is challenging because of the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, an important factor in triggering landslides. Evaluation of the precipitation field, associated errors, and sampling uncertainties is integral for development of efficient and reliable landslide forecasting and early warning system. This study develops a methodology to assess the viability of using a precipitation field provided by a global model and its potential integration in the landslide forecasting system. The study focuses on the comparison between the IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission) and GEOS (NASA Goddard Earth Observing System)-Forecast product over contiguous United States (CONUS). GEOS model assimilates new observations every 6 hours, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. The framework is tested on the GEOS-Forecast Model initialized at 00 UTC using daily IMERG early product as reference using both categorical and continuous statistics. The categorical statistics includes the probability of detection (POD), success ratio (SR), critical success index (CSI), and the hit bias. Continuous statistics such as correlation, normalized standard deviation, and root-mean-square error are also evaluated. Overall, GEOS-Forecast precipitation field over the analysis period (~1 year) show underestimation with respect to IMERG early for the daily accumulated rainfall. However, the probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function of both show similar patterns. In terms of correlations, POD, SR, CSI, hit bias, the performance varies with respect to the rainfall threshold used.

Sana Khan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Role of PHM in Autonomous Decision-Making: Aerospace applications

There is an increased need for onboard decision-making capabilities in cyber-physical systems be it in energy, automotive, aviation, space, or other industries as they aim for increased efficiency, resiliency, and mission assurance capabilities. Emerging next-gen technologies such as multi-rover planetary missions, distributed satellites, unmanned ground and aerial vehicle operations and smart grid systems rely on in-time risk assessment and autonomous decision-making. One critical piece of the autonomy puzzle is reliable prediction of system behavior under time-varying and potentially uncertain environmental conditions. Further, if agent states change during operation such as initiation of faults or degradation, reliable diagnostic tools need to be investigated. In this tutorial, we will revise approaches that integrates existing physics-based and data-driven models of agents interacting with probability models of the environment and component operation state. Role of existing PHM methodologies as they feed into decision-making under uncertainty will be studied. Balancing critical trade-offs between high-fidelity prognostic models, prediction time-horizons and the computational requirements for in-time cost-effective decision-making will be discussed through the implementation of surrogate models. Finally, the audience will be introduced to a real-time application of in-time trajectory planning of an unmanned aerial system (UAS) based on its PHM assessments under uncertain and varying wind conditions.

decision-making↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lessons Learned from Astrobee Operations on the International Space Station

Since its launch in 2019, NASA has been operating three Astrobee free-flying robots providing an autonomous and adaptable research platform aboard the International Space Station (ISS). These robots have not only facilitated a myriad of national and international research endeavors in microgravity but have also served as a STEM outreach platform for student competitions aboard the ISS. Amidst its extensive operational tenure, spanning over five years and exceeding 1200 hours of cumulative free-flyer operation as of April 2024, the Astrobee robots have encountered software and hardware anomalies. Despite its inherent design for on-orbit repair or replacement, certain anomalies have proven to be complex, necessitating remote resolution via software and firmware updates or, in extreme cases, hardware replacements or the return of faulty units to NASA's ground facilities for repair. Such challenges underscore the delicate balance between the autonomous functionality of Astrobee and the occasional need for human intervention to maintain optimal performance. One recurring point of failure identified during Astrobee's operational lifespan has been the SD card, a critical component utilized by the different Astrobee processors and the Dock Station. The occurrence of SD card anomalies, both on orbit and within ground units, has provided invaluable insights into the improvement of Astrobee's systems and mitigation to future faults. This presentation will focus on four key areas: 1. Overview of Faults and Anomalies: A comprehensive examination of the diverse array of faults and anomalies encountered by Astrobee and its associated systems both in orbit and on the ground. From software glitches to hardware malfunctions, this section provides insights into the challenges faced during Astrobee's operational tenure. 2. Resolution Processes and Procedures: An in-depth discussion of the methodologies and procedures implemented to resolve the encountered anomalies. This includes remote troubleshooting, software patches, firmware updates, and, when necessary, the logistics involved in hardware replacements or down-massing for repair. 3. Implementation of Software Updates and Hardware Upgrades: A detailed exploration of the strategies employed to mitigate the risk of recurring anomalies through the implementation of software updates and hardware upgrades. This section highlights the iterative nature of Astrobee's development, emphasizing the continuous pursuit of robustness and reliability. 4. Lessons Learned and Future Directions: Reflecting on the insights gained from addressing anomalies, this section examines the lessons learned and outlines future directions for enhancing Astrobee's robustness and resilience. It underscores the iterative nature of space exploration and the importance of adaptability and continuous improvement in the pursuit of scientific discovery. Through a nuanced examination of Astrobee's operational challenges and the strategies employed to overcome them, this presentation sheds light on the complexities of operating autonomous robotic systems in the ISS environment. It underscores NASA's commitment to pushing the boundaries of exploration and innovation while navigating the inherent challenges of space exploration.

Astrobee↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lessons Learned from Astrobee Operations on the International Space Station

Since its launch in 2019, NASA has been operating three Astrobee free-flying robots providing an autonomous and adaptable research platform aboard the International Space Station (ISS). These robots have not only facilitated a myriad of national and international research endeavors in microgravity but have also served as a STEM outreach platform for student competitions aboard the ISS. Amidst its extensive operational tenure, spanning over five years and exceeding 1200 hours of cumulative free-flyer operation as of April 2024, the Astrobee robots have encountered software and hardware anomalies. Despite its inherent design for on-orbit repair or replacement, certain anomalies have proven to be complex, necessitating remote resolution via software and firmware updates or, in extreme cases, hardware replacements or the return of faulty units to NASA's ground facilities for repair. Such challenges underscore the delicate balance between the autonomous functionality of Astrobee and the occasional need for human intervention to maintain optimal performance. One recurring point of failure identified during Astrobee's operational lifespan has been the SD card, a critical component utilized by the different Astrobee processors and the Dock Station. The occurrence of SD card anomalies, both on orbit and within ground units, has provided invaluable insights into the improvement of Astrobee's systems and mitigation to future faults. This presentation will focus on four key areas: 1. Overview of Faults and Anomalies: A comprehensive examination of the diverse array of faults and anomalies encountered by Astrobee and its associated systems both in orbit and on the ground. From software glitches to hardware malfunctions, this section provides insights into the challenges faced during Astrobee's operational tenure. 2. Resolution Processes and Procedures: An in-depth discussion of the methodologies and procedures implemented to resolve the encountered anomalies. This includes remote troubleshooting, software patches, firmware updates, and, when necessary, the logistics involved in hardware replacements or down-massing for repair. 3. Implementation of Software Updates and Hardware Upgrades: A detailed exploration of the strategies employed to mitigate the risk of recurring anomalies through the implementation of software updates and hardware upgrades. This section highlights the iterative nature of Astrobee's development, emphasizing the continuous pursuit of robustness and reliability. 4. Lessons Learned and Future Directions: Reflecting on the insights gained from addressing anomalies, this section examines the lessons learned and outlines future directions for enhancing Astrobee's robustness and resilience. It underscores the iterative nature of space exploration and the importance of adaptability and continuous improvement in the pursuit of scientific discovery. Through a nuanced examination of Astrobee's operational challenges and the strategies employed to overcome them, this presentation sheds light on the complexities of operating autonomous robotic systems in the ISS environment. It underscores NASA's commitment to pushing the boundaries of exploration and innovation while navigating the inherent challenges of space exploration.

Astrobee↗

NASA NTRS2025

HabSim: A Modular Coupled Virtual Testbed for Simulating ExtraTerrestrial Habitat Systems

Extraterrestrial habitats involve a tightly coupled combination of hardware, software, and humans while operating in an unforgiving environment that poses many risks, both anticipated and unanticipated. Traditional approaches with such systems of systems focus on reliability, robustness, and redundancy. These approaches seek to avoid failure rather than reduce overall risk. However, faults are inevitable, and understanding and managing the complex and emergent behavior and cascading events of such a complex system is critical. This study describes the development of HabSim, a computational simulation environment intended to support research to establish the know-how to design and operate resilient and autonomous SmartHabs. HabSim is a modular virtual testbed composed of many of the coupled dynamic systems expected in a typical SmartHab. A heterogeneous set of interconnected physics-based and phenomenological models is used to represent the essential functions of a SmartHab. HabSim further considers disruptions and models damage and repair of certain components. This paper discusses a) system and subsystem requirements of the deep space habitat included in the HabSim platform; b) architectural choices made in response to the requirements; c) technical considerations for developing, verifying, configuring, and executing HabSim; and d) illustrative sample results from a simulation of a representative disruption scenario.

Mohsen Azimi↗

NASA NTRS2016

Space: It's Not What It Used to Be. A Goddard Approach to This Challenge, Questions About SmallSats, a Few Answers, and the Need for Transformative Thought in a Transformative Time

The "final frontier" is not what is used to be. Advancements in systems capabilities, easier access to orbit, a rapidly expanding spacefaring community saddled with imagination, and innovative approaches to mitigate chronic fiscal constraints are all converging to create novel spaceflight systems and mission architectures. Persons content to apply yesterday's thought to today's challenges stand the risk of finding themselves following instead of leading. The Dellingr 6U CubeSat project ongoing at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is demonstrating that while there is great potential to achieve compelling science, new systems and processes are required to fully leverage the cost and schedule efficiencies small satellites can yield. In addition, realizing the potential of these platforms in environments more challenging than benign low earth orbit requires spacecraft systems designed for reliable or resilient operation, and reliable components and subsystems.

Johnson, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Increasing Small Satellite Reliability- A Public-Private Initiative

At present, CubeSat components and buses are generally not appropriate for missions where significant risk of failure, or the inability to quantify risk or confidence, is acceptable. However, in the future we anticipate that CubeSats will be used for missions requiring reliability of 1-3 years for Earth-observing missions and even longer for Planetary, Heliophysics, and Astrophysics missions. Their growing potential utility is driving an interagency effort to improve and quantify CubeSat reliability, and more generally, small satellite mission risk. The Small Satellite Reliability Initiative (SSRI)—an ongoing activity with broad collaborative participation from civil, DoD, and commercial space systems providers and stakeholders—targets this challenge. The Initiative seeks to define implementable and broadly-accepted approaches to achieve reliability and acceptable risk postures associated with several SmallSat mission risk classes—from “do no harm” missions, to those associated with missions whose failure would result in loss or delay of key national objectives. These approaches will maintain, to the extent practical, cost efficiencies associated with small satellite missions and consider constraints associated with supply chain elements, as appropriate. The SSRI addresses this challenge from two architectural levels—the mission- or system-level, and the component- or subsystem-level. The mission- or system-level scope targets assessment approaches that are efficient and effective, with mitigation strategies that facilitate resiliency to mission or system anomalies while the component- or subsystem-level scope addresses the challenge at lower architectural levels. The initiative does not limit strategies and approaches to proven and traditional methodologies, but is focused on fomenting thought on novel and innovative solutions. This paper discusses the genesis of and drivers for this initiative, how the public-private collaboration is being executed, findings and recommendations derived to date, and next steps towards broadening small satellite mission potential.

SmallSat↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA's Implementation of Cloud Services for Human Space Flight

Cloud is a tried-and-true technology used throughout United States government agencies, including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). With reliable results and infrequent downtimes, cloud allows for secure remote access, customizability, and streamlined monitoring options, creating an environment for better data integrity and availability. As NASA increasingly migrates functions to the cloud, the Space Communications and Navigation Program (SCaN) program has been investigating how this capability can be leveraged to provide communication services to its users and customers. Currently, missions such as NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR), Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE), and Roman Space Telescope (RST) are planned to incorporate cloud into their data delivery architecture. However, SCaN is looking to expand further. This conversion to using cloud services allows for greater availability of mission data for both robotic and human space flight (HSF)missions. The SCaN program and the Near Space Network (NSN) are working to consolidate resources and create a cloud environment suitable for the entirety of the SCaN program network architecture. SCaN is in the process of finalizing its cloud architecture and soon will be implementing cloud services. The new services used will adhere to federal regulations including Federal Risk and Authorization Management Program (FedRAMP), which is built upon National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)documentation. While keeping in mind these security requirements, an auxiliary objective of the cloud integration is to ensure the most cost-efficient solution; providing a scalable, robust and resilient system. Using cloud services, NASA will gain access to better centralized monitoring and management features, along with customizable services on a pay-per-use plan. With the ever-growing NASA mission data volume needs, maintaining ample storage space is another major constraint. Processing and storing such large amounts of data, on the order of terabytes a day, requires dynamic processing capability which is inherently a strength of cloud computing. By routing this data from ground stations through the cloud, there will be greater ease of access for both SCaN and the user community. Artificial intelligence and other built-in cloud functions can also enhance efficiency, improving data processing time. Thereby also allowing for better data availability. As we look to the future of cloud services, NASA will continue to leverage capabilities that will benefit NASA’s ability to provide cost-effective communication services. This paper further outlines the evolution of cloud use by SCaN in the context of Human Space Flight.

cloud storage↗