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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive Cognitive Mechanisms to Maintain Calibrated Trust and Reliance in Automation

Trust calibration for a human–machine team is the process by which a human adjusts their expectations of the automation’s reliability and trustworthiness; adaptive support for trust calibration is needed to engender appropriate reliance on automation. Herein, we leverage an instance-based learning ACT-R cognitive model of decisions to obtain and rely on an automated assistant for visual search in a UAV interface. This cognitive model matches well with the human predictive power statistics measuring reliance decisions; we obtain from the model an internal estimate of automation reliability that mirrors human subjective ratings. The model is able to predict the effect of various potential disruptions, such as environmental changes or particular classes of adversarial intrusions on human trust in automation. Finally, we consider the use of model predictions to improve automation transparency that account for human cognitive biases in order to optimize the bidirectional interaction between human and machine through supporting trust calibration. The implications of our findings for the design of reliable and trustworthy automation are discussed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data From: "Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater"

This repository contains the data and code associated with the paper titled "Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater," published in Nature Geoscience, 2026. This study seeks to answer how various ages of groundwater interact with mountainous streamflow in mountainous headwaters such as the East River. It includes various model-data processing scripts, primarily for ParFlow-CLM analysis of simulated water years 2015-2021, and two numerical warming experiments (+2.5 and +4.0 degrees C), including run scripts, forcing scripts, and post-processing, as well as comparison to observation datasets, detailed below. This data requires the use of R (.r, .rmd), Python (.py), Jupyter Notebook or Jupyter Lab (.ipynb), ParFLOW-CLM, EcoSLIM. Further information on the use of all file formats mentioned below (e.g. .tff. .nc) are provided within the associated scripts and directory where the files are located. Contents & Usage ASO/: ​​Contains the bash and python scripts used to convert airborne snow observatory (ASO) data (ASO, 2023) in various data formats (georeferenced tiff file, NetCDF, UTM, and to latitude/longitude) then regrided to the ParFlow equivalent grid. Output data are in regrid_regll_data.zip and subsequently visualized and analyzed in plot_and_compare.py for Supplementary Figures A14 and A15. The wksht_ASO_comparison.xlsx spreadsheet is used to calculate the data for Supplementary Figure A16. EcoSLIM/: Contains the scripts and input files to run the EcoSLIM particle tracking simulations (/run_scripts) and the post-processing python script (/plot_scripts/eco_agedist_plots.ipynb). Jasechko et al./: Contains the jupyter notebook (Extract_Elevation.ipynb) to determine the outlet elevations of the 260 watersheds used in Jasechko et al. (2016), and the corresponding table, Table_S1_Watersheds_alt.csv. Used to create Supplementary Information Figure A2. PLM_Wells/: Contains the QA/QC-ed groundwater level time series of the PLM-1 and PLM-6 Monitoring Wells from Faybishenko et al. (2023), reformatted to water years used for Supplementary Figures A19 and and A20. ParFlow/: Contains the input files and run scripts to run ParFlow-CLM (/run_scripts), the python and tool command language (Tcl) scripts to create and distribute the ParFlow forcing simulation files (/forcing), and various scripts and intermediary files to analyze the model outputs (/post_process). SQUIRE/: Contains the processing scripts and intermediary files for the Surface QUantitatIve pRecipitation Estimation (SQUIRE) data (Grover, 2023) used to generate Supplementary Figure A18. USGS_Streamflow/: Contains the raw and gap-filled United States Geological Survey streamflow data (U.S. Geological Survey, 2026) used at the Almont station (site number 09112500). Gap-filling is performed in the R script with data from the Taylor station (site number 09110000). (/USGS_09112500_EAST_RIVER_AT_ALMONT_GAP_FILLED/code_almont_streamflow_gap_fill.Rmd). discharge/: Contains the gap-filled discharge data at the Watershed Function SFA East River pumphouse site (Newcomer et al., 2022) used to generate Supplementary Figure A13 and to compute hourly Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients (NSE) in Table A4. snotel_and_flux_tower/: Contains the snow telemetry data (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024) from the Butte (site ID 380) and Schofield (site ID 737) stations, reformatted by water year, accessed with the snotelr R package. Used to create Supplementary Figure A17. Also contains the flux tower observational data (FluxTower_Pumphouse_ESS-DIVE.ET_only.h.txt) from Ryken et al. (2022) and sap flux transpiration data (MaxB_Transpiration_5Sites.daily_sums.h.txt) from Ryken (2021), used to create Supplementary Figures A22 and A23, respectively. Raw EcoSLIM model outputs are in excess of 24TB, and are stored on National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) and publicly available via the external link provided in the paper.

atmospheric warming↗
DOE OSTI2022

A description of multi-material hydrodynamics without reliance upon Pressure-Temperature-Equilibrium and its relevance to Eulerian codes [Slides]

This report contains "a description of the full multi-material Euler system without reliance on the assumption of the PTE closure; a discussion of the details that a numerical scheme discretizing the above system might need to have; a description of how that might play out in a PTE code after all; and, an attempt to lay out the maximally consistent set of equations."

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Alaska's First Thermalize Campaign: An Effort to Reduce Fuel Reliance in Juneau, AK

In 2018, the Bureau and City of Juneau set the goal of reaching 80% renewable energy in the sectors of transportation and space heating by 2045. This effort will minimize their reliance on fossil fuels, reduce their carbon footprint and increase their resilience in the event of a natural disaster as fuel oil reaches Juneau by boat and such shipments may be disrupted in a disaster. The community's resilience in the face of a disaster and lower carbon footprint goes hand-in-hand with public safety and health. The Cold Climate Housing and Research Center (CCHRC) partnered with several local and statewide groups, including Alaska Heat Smart and Information Insights, Inc, to lead Alaska's first thermalize campaign. Thermalize Juneau 2021 is an energy campaign working to lower the cost of heating homes in Juneau through beneficial electrification and increased energy efficiency. The goal of the campaign was to offer homeowners a streamlined and more affordable way to install heat pumps and energy efficiency improvements into their homes. Converting household heating from fuel to electricity also helps improve indoor and outdoor air quality and reduces maintenance requirements. The campaign had over 160 participants. As of Fall 2021, it is in its final stages of heat pump installations and energy efficiency improvements. In addition to tracking the energy savings and carbon reduction attributed to the campaign, the social equity was an important aspect. Thermalize Juneau attempted to include all the demographics present in Juneau in the campaign. The presentation will cover the goals and implementation of the campaign, current data on how it is improving community and household resilience, lessons learned, and next steps.

clean energy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Boosting efficiency and reducing graph reliance: Basis adaptation integration in Bayesian multi-fidelity networks

The computational cost of high-fidelity numerical models makes outer-loop analysis, which requires repeated interrogation of the model such as uncertainty quantification, computationally demanding. Multi-fidelity methods, which construct a surrogate model using data from an ensemble of models of varying cost and accuracy, can substantially reduce the cost of outer-loop analysis. However, these methods can be difficult to apply when the model ensemble does not admit a clear hierarchy a priori and the correlations between models are low. Consequently, in this paper, we present a multi-fidelity method that leverages dimension reduction to enhance the correlation between models, thereby reducing the amount of data needed to train a surrogate from an unordered ensemble of models. Our method utilizes basis adaptation to build low-dimensional polynomial chaos expansions of each model and employs Multi-fidelity Networks to encode the relationships among models. We show that the resulting method exhibit two notable advantages over its counterpart: (1) enhanced accuracy (both reduced bias and variance); and (2) reduced dependency on the graph structure encoding relationships among models. We demonstrate the approach on an analytical test problem and a challenging finite element model for a spent nuclear fuel. Our method produces a surrogate model that is significantly more accurate than either a single-fidelity surrogate or a multi-fidelity surrogate constructed without basis adaptation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets

Countries worldwide are transforming their energy systems to achieve Carbon-Neutrality. Investing in renewable resources-based technologies and implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are common strategies to achieve higher sequestration levels. Negative emissions through Bioenergy with CCS are expected to play an essential role in the transition to full decarbonization. On top of that, biomass is a limited resource that depends on environmental factors, which create uncertainties related to the amount that can be sustainably provided to the energy system. Here this study emphasizes the relevance of variability in carbon sequestration for achieving climate targets by 2050. Here this paper proposes a probabilistic approach that integrates the Global Change Analysis Model for Latin America (GCAM-LA) with a chance constraint approach. GCAM-LA is used to assess the impact on the energy sector of different limits of sustainable biomass and carbon budget scenarios. The risk associated with exceeding the sequestration capacity of a given region is modeled via Chance Constraint. Results show that electrification is an appropriate long-term decarbonization strategy. It smoothes the effects of uncertainty in sequestration capacity and responds to end-user demands. For this case study, higher levels of electrification are obtained at likelihood levels >66% for end-use sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater

Atmospheric warming is reducing snowpack, with uncertain effects on mountainous streamflow, a crucial water resource. Despite limited historical observations of groundwater–streamflow interactions above 2,500 m, new measurements in the Upper Colorado River headwaters indicate declining groundwater storage that is dated decades to millennia old. Here we use integrated hydrologic modelling spanning water years 2015–2021 to determine whether the loss of old-age groundwater buffers streamflow during low-snow years and whether that loss is exacerbated with warming. Results show that old-groundwater contributions to streams remain relatively steady through time, unlike the more variable contributions from young groundwater. Numerical experiments of increased surface air temperatures (+2.5 °C and +4 °C) increase rain–snow fractions and evapotranspiration and decrease runoff ratio by 2–3% per degree Celsius increase. As streamflow declines with warming, the age of groundwater supporting it gets older, in part owing to intermediate-aged (1–3 year) groundwater declining twice as fast. Simulations show that water table depths at higher elevations (>3,700 m) decline disproportionately and fail to recover even during wet years. These findings suggest altered groundwater–streamflow interactions with warming and snow loss, with implications for water resources.

Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R. [Lawrence Berkeley Nati↗
DOE OSTI2022

Shifting from Fossil Fuel Reliance to Green Energy Sovereignty: Ute Mountain Ute Tribe

Self-determination has been an on-going effort for Native American people and gained much traction with the passing of The Energy Policy Act of 2005, which included the Indian Tribal Energy Development and Self-Determination Act. Congress passed this act to assist Native American tribes and Alaska Native villages with planning, development, and assistance to achieve their energy goals. The Ute Mountain Ute Tribe (UMUT) has relied on oil and natural gas for economic support the last 70 years. Burning fossil fuels, along with oil and gas development, decreases the quality of air and leads to increased greenhouse gas emissions. Subsequently, the burning of fossil fuels to produce energy is now more costly than many renewable energy sources, including solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Environmental stewardship, along with the need to maintain revenue generation, has led UMUT’s efforts to achieve energy self-determinism employing PV and exploring other technology. In the past, the tribe completed a 1 megawatt PV project near Towaoc, Colorado, which serves as a case study on the tribe’s energy goals: a future where renewables will dominate their energy landscape. This paper explores UMUT’s past and on-going efforts toward energy independence and how it relates to the broader landscape of Native American energy sovereignty.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Yes, No, Maybe So: Human Factors Considerations for Fostering Calibrated Trust in Foundation Models Under Uncertainty

High-stakes analytical environments require analysts to evaluate evidence and generate conclusions to inform critical decisions often under conditions of uncertainty. Probabilistic decision-making based on incomplete or inaccurate information can reduce productivity, compromise national interests, and endanger public safety. Researchers are developing expert systems built on foundation models (FMs) to support analysts’ decision-making processes by enabling human-artificial intelligence (AI) teaming, in part through the quantification and expression of uncertainty information. As FMs continue to mature, it is imperative to correspondingly consider analysts’ needs for appropriately interpreting and using uncertainty information. However, prior research indicates that it remains unclear how analysts engage with FM-generated uncertainty information and the extent to which these interactions influence trust in, and reliance on, expert systems. We plan to review the state of the science and conduct an exploratory, qualitative study to (a) understand how properly communicated uncertainty can foster calibrated trust and appropriate reliance and (b) identify approaches for effectively conveying FM-generated uncertainty information during analytical workflows. We will administer semi-structured interviews with analysts from a specific high-stakes analytical environment to collect their current experiences with job-related uncertainty and their impressions when viewing FM-generated uncertainty information. During the interview protocol, participants will be presented with several different FM outputs and invited to discuss their thoughts and beliefs about the uncertainty information displayed. Participants may provide insights into how trust and reliance may be influenced by uncertainty. The results of this study will help us to better understand how analysts currently interpret and use uncertainty information. Our findings may inform human factors recommendations for effectively conveying uncertainty information to foster calibrated trust in, and appropriate reliance on, expert systems. Interaction designers and FM developers can use this knowledge to enhance human-AI teaming and ensure the responsible deployment of FM-based expert systems in analytical workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of Mechanical Recycling on Carbon Fiber-Based Hybrid Composites

Carbon fiber (CF) reinforced composites are high-performing, highly utilized material systems historically used in aerospace. As the cost of CF decreases, other industries, such as automotive and energy generation, seek to adopt CF composites into their applications. A sudden increase in CF demand may create supply chain issues if the adoption happens without scaling up of the CF production. A solution for reducing the reliance on CF is to substitute some portion of the CF content with another fiber type without significantly reducing the material properties. When multiple reinforcing fillers are introduced into a composite system, the materials system is often referred to as a hybrid composite and in this case a CF-based hybrid composite. To further relieve reliance on CF and with sustainable manufacturing becoming more prominent in industry, mechanical recycling can be employed to replace all or a percentage of the virgin material content. Utilizing recycled content in place of virgin content will further aid in reducing the reliance on virgin CF and decrease overall material costs. Here, the effects of utilizing mechanically recycled feedstocks on the mechanical properties of injection molded samples are explored to understand the feasibility of re-manufacturing recycled CF-based hybrid composites. By determining the mechanical properties and mechanisms in which the properties change through varying recycled content, the assessment of how the material will perform in other manufacturing processes can be inferred. As a result, industry will gain better insight into utilizing mechanically recycled feedstocks to reduce their reliance on the CF supply chain.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solar Canopy Expansion Project (Final Technical Report)

This project is a parking-lot canopy solar photovoltaic system, consisting of four canopy structures and 1,080 470-watt (W) modules. The nameplate rating of the project is 507.6 kilowatts direct current (kWDC) at Standard Test Condition (STC), and 448 kilowatts alternating current (kWAC). It is interconnected to the existing Tribe-owned medium-voltage micro-grid generation system via a step-up transformer and short medium-voltage line. This project offsets energy usage from more expensive existing sources, specifically the Tribe-owned gas-fired engine generators providing the primary power source for existing Tribal facilities and the electric utility, which provides an alternate source. The solar photovoltaic system is a renewable source, which has the benefit of reducing reliance on fossil-fuel burning sources. By reducing demand on existing Tribe-owned conventional generators, the project has avoided the need to add more conventional generation and has prolonged the lifespan of existing gas-fired engine generators. The project reduced energy costs and reliance on fossil-fuel burning power sources, increasing Tribe-owned generating sources and self-reliance, and prolonging the lifespan of existing generators. A side benefit to the project is the production of dozens of covered parking spaces in the existing parking lot.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 Study

This paper explores the role of electricity in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in the United States based on results from 17 models as part of the 37th Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). In the study's Net-Zero scenario, the models use diverse pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with gross energy-related residual emissions ranging from 17.2 to 66.6 % of 2020 levels. Electricity consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero, with models projecting rapid electrification of end-uses and rapidly declining CO2 intensity of electricity. However, the extent of electrification and the technology mix to decarbonize the power sector vary considerably across models. In the Net-Zero scenario, electricity is projected to evolve from ~20 % of final energy in 2020 to 17-63 % in 2050 across the models driven by electrification in all sectors-buildings, industry, and transportation-and, to a lesser extent by direct air capture. By 2050, total electricity consumption increases by 24-176 % (relative to 2020), accompanied by significant expansion in renewable electricity production. Together, solar and wind generation grows by 175-834 %, supplying 45-90 % of total electricity in 2050, with wind achieving slightly higher shares than solar. Electricity storage technologies are deployed at scale to support wind and solar generation. The electricity generation mix varies across models: some project almost complete reliance on renewables, while others see a substantial role for natural gas, often with carbon capture and storage. This paper synthesizes the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results, highlighting differing views on how key drivers of electricity demand and supply might evolve.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward sustainable electrochemically mediated separations driven by renewable energy

Environmental pollution, water scarcity, resource shortage, and fossil fuel reliance have all represented threats to a sustainable future. Separation processes play a pivotal role in improving sustainability in fields such as industrial processes, resource recycling, wastewater treatment, and water desalination, among others. Electrochemical systems have gained increased attention as effective separation platforms, not only in performance but also as a potentially energy-efficient approach. However, the reliance on non-renewable energy sources, such as fossil fuels, for electricity generation limits the advancement toward a fully sustainable separation process. Integration of separation processes with eco-friendly renewable energy sources can increase overall sustainability and decrease carbon footprint. Here, in this review, we provide an overview of electrochemical separations and recent efforts to integrate them with renewable energy sources such as heat and solar energy. We discuss electrochemical separations, including electrosorption and electrodialysis, and research to transition these processes to thermoelectrochemical (TEC) and photoelectrochemical (PEC) platforms. Finally, we discuss current challenges and future prospects in direct integration of renewable energy sources with separation processes.

electrochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Minimizing grid energy consumption in wastewater treatment plants: Towards green energy solutions, water sustainability, and cleaner environment

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) consume significant amount of energy to sustain their operation. From this point, the current study aims to enhance the capacity of these facilities to meet their energy needs by integrating renewable energy sources. The study focused on the investigation of two primary solar energy systems in As Samra WWTP in Jordan. The first system combines parabolic trough collectors (PTCs) with thermal energy storage (TES). This system primarily serves to fulfill the thermal energy demands of the plant by reducing the demands from boiler units, which allows more biogas for electricity generation. The second system is a photovoltaic (PV) system with Lithium-Ion batteries, which directly produces electricity that will be used to cover part of the electrical energy demands of plant. To assess the optimal configuration, two distinct scenarios have been formulated and compared to the current case scenario (SC#1). The first scenario focuses on maximizing the net present value (NPV) and minimizing the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). The second scenario is centred on minimizing the levelized cost of heat (LCOH). The findings indicate that both scenarios succeeded in reducing the reliance on the grid to a value that reach 1 %. Moreover, they both reduced biogas percentage in energy production from 88 % to approximately 65 % through the integration of the PV system. In terms of thermal demand, SC#2 reduced the reliance on biogas boiler units from 100 % to 25 %, while SC#3 achieved an even more impressive reduction to just 8 %. The best LCOE value was attained in SC#2, at 0.0895 USD/kWh, with an NPV of 10.54 million USD. Conversely, SC# 3 yielded an LCOH value of 0.0432 USD/kWh th compared to 0.0534 USD/kWh th USD for SC#2. In conclusion, despite their relatively high capital and operating costs, SC#2 and SC#3 managed to substantially decrease the annual electricity expenditure from approximately 2 million USD to 86,000 USD and 0 USD, respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Large-Scale Carbon Removal Will Create Public Health, Economic, and Climate Tradeoffs

Economy-wide efforts to achieve net-zero emissions offer both climate and air quality-related public health benefits from reducing fossil fuel combustion. We explore the expected costs and benefits if carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is deployed at scale in support of these efforts. Six leading forms of CDR at two levels of deployment are compared to a scenario with no U.S. climate action. We find that heavy reliance on CDR avoids a $2.5-5.8 trillion USD2020 in climate damages, provides $2.8-6.5 trillion USD2020 public health benefits, returns $5-6 trillion USD2020 in CDR revenues, but requires $11-13 trillion USD2020 CO2 mitigation cost, cumulatively by 2050 in the U.S. In contrast, lower reliance on CDR requires much deeper near-term fossil-fuel reductions, which increases mitigation costs by 52% but also creates 26% higher public health benefits from reductions in particulate matter- and ozone-related mortality and morbidity, preventing about 12,600 premature deaths by mid-century in the U.S.

Javadi, Parisa↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deployment expectations of multi-gigatonne scale carbon removal could have adverse impacts on Asia’s energy-water-land nexus

Abstract Existing studies indicate that future global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal (CDR) efforts could largely be concentrated in Asia. However, there is limited understanding of how individual Asian countries and regions will respond to varying and uncertain scales of future CDR concerning their energy-land-water system. We address this gap by modeling various levels of CDR-reliant pathways under climate change ambitions in Asia. We find that high CDR reliance leads to residual fossil fuel and industry emissions of about 8 Gigatonnes CO 2 yr −1 (GtCO 2 yr −1 ) by 2050, compared to less than 1 GtCO 2 yr −1 under moderate-to-low CDR reliance. Moreover, expectations of multi-gigatonne CDR could delay the achievement of domestic net zero CO 2 emissions for several Asian countries and regions, and lead to higher land allocation and fertilizer demand for bioenergy crop cultivation. Here, we show that Asian countries and regions should prioritize emission reduction strategies while capitalizing on the advantages of carbon removal when it is most viable.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗