Parametric 3D Atmospheric Reconstruction in Highly Variable Terrain with Recycled Monte Carlo Paths & an Adapted Bayesian Inference Engine
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We describe a method for accelerating a 3D Monte Carlo forward radiative transfer model to the point where it can be used in a new kind of Bayesian retrieval framework. The remote sensing challenge is to detect and quantify a chemical effluent of a known absorbing gas produced by an industrial facility in a deep valley. The available data is a single low resolution noisy image of the scene in the near IR at an absorbing wavelength for the gas of interest. The detected sunlight has been multiply reflected by the variable terrain and/or scattered by an aerosol that is assumed partially known and partially unknown. We thus introduce a new class of remote sensing algorithms best described as "multi-pixel" techniques that call necessarily for a 3D radaitive transfer model (but demonstrated here in 2D); they can be added to conventional ones that exploit typically multi- or hyper-spectral data, sometimes with multi-angle capability, with or without information about polarization. The novel Bayesian inference methodology uses adaptively, with efficiency in mind, the fact that a Monte Carlo forward model has a known and controllable uncertainty depending on the number of sun-to-detector paths used.
Volcanoes are natural phenomena that have global environmental impacts. Satellite remote sensing can help classify volcanic eruptions and track the dispersion of emissions. We assess multiple volcanic eruptions in Iceland (Eyjafjallajökull 2010, Grímsvötn 2011 and Holuhraun 2014-2015), using space-borne observations to infer information about the geological dynamics of each volcano and the properties and evolution of plume particles. We derive qualitative constraints on plume particle size, shape and light-absorption characteristics from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) space-borne imagery. With the MISR Research Algorithm (RA), we distinguish sulfate/water-dominated volcanic plumes from Holuhraun and ash-dominated plumes from Eyjafjallajökull and Grímsvötn, and even identify subtler changes in ash particle size and light-absorption within plumes. Additionally, plume heights are retrieved geometrically from MISR. These are combined with surface thermal anomalies from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and SO2 concentrations derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) to synthesize eruption remote-sensing chronologies. Signals related to differences in particle properties are identified and linked to evolving magma composition at Eyjafjallajökull. The results illustrate the potential to distinguish qualitative differences in eruptive magma composition based on particle light absorption and plume profile from remote-sensing. For the sulfate-rich Holuhraun plumes, the influence of aerosol hygroscopic growth during transport is inferred from such data. Three processes appear to dominate plume evolution in Iceland: downwind aerosol formation; particle hydration; and particle deposition. This work demonstrates enhanced MISR capabilities, and more generally, remote-sensing analysis that can be applied globally, especially where suborbital volcano observations are limited or entirely absent.