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The Global Technical, Economic, and Feasible Potential of Renewable Electricity
Renewable electricity generation will need to be rapidly scaled to address climate change and other environmental challenges. Doing so effectively will require an understanding of resource availability. We review estimates for renewable electricity of the global technical potential, defined as the amount of electricity that could be produced with current technologies when accounting for geographical and technical limitations as well as conversion efficiencies; economic potential, which also includes cost; and feasible potential, which accounts for societal and environmental constraints. We consider utility-scale and rooftop solar photovoltaics, concentrated solar power, onshore and offshore wind, hydropower, geothermal electricity, and ocean (wave, tidal, ocean thermal energy conversion, and salinity gradient energy) technologies. We find that the reported technical potential for each energy resource ranges over several orders of magnitude across and often within technologies. Therefore, we also discuss the main factors explaining why authors find such different results. According to this review and on the basis of the most robust studies, we find that technical potentials for utility-scale solar photovoltaic, concentrated solar power, onshore wind, and offshore wind are above 100 PWh/year. Hydropower, geothermal electricity, and ocean thermal energy conversion have technical potentials above 10 PWh/year. Rooftop solar photovoltaic, wave, and tidal have technical potentials above 1 PWh/year. Salinity gradient has a technical potential above 0.1 PWh/year. The literature assessing the global economic potential of renewables, which considers the cost of each renewable resource, shows that the economic potential is higher than current and near-future electricity demand. Fewer studies have calculated the global feasible potential, which considers societal and environmental constraints. While these ranges are useful for assessing the magnitude of available energy sources, they may omit challenges for large-scale renewable portfolios.
Utility-Based Renewable Electricity Supply Options Overview
Overview guidance for the Better Buildings, Better Plants and Better Climate Challenge programs on the utility-based renewable electricity supply options available for sourcing green energy.
Integrated multimodel analysis reveals achievable pathways toward reliable, 100% renewable electricity for Los Angeles
Climate change has prompted many communities to set targets for carbon-free power supplies, but they often lack data-driven strategies to achieve them. We present a comprehensive analysis of an entirely renewable electric power system that can maintain operating reliability and resource adequacy using detailed models of the city of Los Angeles power grid. In consultation with the operating utility, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), and the local community, we develop four supply scenarios across three demand projections to analyze which types of infrastructure and operational changes would achieve reliable electricity at least cost. We find that a reliable, 100%-renewable power system yielding more than $1 billion annually in health and climate co-benefits is achievable. Solar can supply most future energy needs, while combustion turbines that use renewable, storable carbon-neutral fuels are key to maintaining reliability. This study provides a replicable methodology that other jurisdictions globally can follow.
Air quality and public health co-benefits of 100% renewable electricity adoption and electrification pathways in Los Angeles
To demonstrate how a mega city can lead in decarbonizing beyond legal mandates, the city of Los Angeles (LA) developed science-based, feasible pathways towards utilizing 100% renewable energy for its municipally-owned electric utility. Aside from decarbonization, renewable energy adoption can lead to co-benefits such as improving urban air quality from reductions in combustion-related emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NO x ), primary fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and others. Herein, we quantify changes to air pollutant concentrations and public health from scenarios of 100% renewable electricity adoption in LA in 2045, alongside aggressive electrification of end-use sectors. Our analysis suggests that while ensuring reliable electricity supply, reductions in emissions of air pollutants associated with the 100% renewable electricity scenarios can lead to 8% citywide reductions of PM 2.5 concentration while increasing ozone concentration by 5% relative to a 2012 baseline year, given identical meteorology conditions. The combination of these concentration changes could result in net monetized public health benefits (driven by avoided deaths) of up to $\$$1.4 billion in year 2045 in LA, results potentially replicable for other city-scale decarbonization scenarios.
Renewable electricity capacity planning with uncertainty at multiple scales
Abstract We formulate and compare optimization models of investment in renewable generation using a suite of social planning models that compute optimal generation capacity investments for a hydro-dominated electricity system where inflow uncertainty results in a risk of energy shortage. The models optimize the expected cost of capacity expansion and operation allowing for investments in hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, and thermal plant, as well as battery storage for smoothing load profiles. A novel feature is the integration of uncertain seasonal hydroelectric energy supply and short-term variability in renewable supply in a two-stage stochastic programming framework. The models are applied to data from the New Zealand electricity system and used to estimate the costs of moving to a 100% renewable electricity system by 2035. We also explore the outcomes obtained when applying different forms of CO 2 constraint that limit respectively non-renewable capacity, non-renewable generation, and CO 2 emissions on average, almost surely, or in a chance-constrained setting, and show how our models can be used to investigate the merits of a proposed pumped-hydro scheme in New Zealand’s South Island.
Global Progress Toward Renewable Electricity: Tracking the Role of Solar (Version 4)
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Global Progress Toward Renewable Electricity: Tracking the Role of Solar (Version 3)
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Quantifying Impacts of Renewable Electricity Deployment on Air Quality and Human Health in Southeast Asia Based on AIMS III Scenarios
This study augments the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III) by quantifying changes to air quality and human health that result from its renewable integration and transmission interconnection scenarios. Performing this analysis requires translation of the changes in projected generation from different power sector fuel sources in the AIMS III scenarios to changes in air pollutant emissions, developing what is known as an emissions inventory for each scenario and year evaluated. An emissions inventory represents who emits air pollutants, from where the pollutants are emitted, when, and how much of which air pollutants are emitted. With the assistance of the ASEAN Centre for Energy and leveraging the best available in-region public data sources, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) team compiled a detailed inventory of power plants in the ASEAN region, mapping their PM 2.5 , sulfur oxides (SOx), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions. A new, first-of-its-kind, and user-friendly global air quality model, Global InMAP (Thakrar et al. 2022), is then used to transform the inventory of changes in emissions to changes in concentration of fine particulate matter. Global InMAP then maps the location of human populations in ASEAN countries to calculate humans' exposure to PM 2.5 and estimate excess PM 2.5 -caused mortality attributable to thermal generation sources, as modeled in the AIMS III scenarios.
Global Progress Toward Renewable Electricity: Tracking the Role of Solar (Version 2)
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Global Progress Toward Renewable Electricity: Tracking the Role of Solar (Version 5)
Photovoltaics (PV) represented ~70% of newly installed global electricity generating capacity for 2024, continuing a trend of increasing fractional contribution over each of the past 5 years. Year-to-year growth in both PV installations and PV-generated electricity continued at remarkable levels (~32% and ~28%, respectively), while grid scale battery storage again demonstrated triple digit fractional growth (113%). The contribution to electricity generation from combined low-carbon sources (hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar) exceeded a new threshold of 40%. Following its initial publication in 2021, this annual article collects information from multiple sources and presents it systematically as a reference for IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics readers.
Quantifying Impacts of Renewable Electricity Deployment on Air Quality and Human Health in Southeast Asia Based on Aims III Scenarios
Exposure to outdoor air pollution is the largest environmental risk factor for death and disease worldwide, associated with millions of cases of excess deaths (mortality) each year. Although there are many pollutants in the air that affect our health, the most important class of pollutants is fine particulate matter, PM 2.5 , which are airborne particles of diameter ≤2.5 micrometers (µm). These particles are small enough to deposit deep in the respiratory system where they can then enter the bloodstream, traveling and causing damage to other bodily systems. Exposure to outdoor (ambient) PM 2.5 has been found to be the most important environmental risk factor for mortality in Southeast Asia, associated with 130,000 - 320,000 excess deaths in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries in 2019. Southeast Asia, especially its mega-cities, but also other areas, has some of the worst air quality in the world. Almost all human activity emits air pollutants. Fine particulate matter is both directly emitted and formed in the atmosphere through chemical reactions, the latter of which requires modeling to predict. Power generation is one of the major sources of air pollutants that lead to elevated concentrations of fine particulate matter, including in Southeast Asia. Fossil fuel combustion for power generation, especially coal but also diesel, is the main source of air pollutant emissions from power generation. While natural gas burns cleaner than coal or diesel, in the quantities combusted for power generation in Southeast Asia, it is also a significant emitter. This study augments the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III) by quantifying changes to air quality and human health that result from its renewable integration and transmission interconnection scenarios. Performing this analysis requires translation of the changes in projected generation from different power sector fuel sources in the AIMS III scenarios to changes in air pollutant emissions, developing what's known as an emissions inventory for each scenario and year evaluated. We then use for the first time a new global, reduced-complexity air quality model to transform the changes in emissions to changes in air pollutant concentration of the deadliest air pollutant for human health, fine particulate matter (or PM 2.5 ). The air quality model, Global InMAP, then utilizes the location of human population in ASEAN countries to calculate exposure to PM 2.5 concentration changes and translates that to estimates of excess mortality attributable to the AIMS III scenarios.
Upcycling Carbon Dioxide: Ethylene Glycol from Cleaned Fossil Carbon Chemical Industry CO2 and Renewable Electricity - Phase II
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Data for Carbon-negative Hydrogen: Aqueous Phase Reforming (APR) of Glycerol over NiPt Bimetallic Catalyst Coupled with CO2 Sequestration
Herein we report the production of high-pressure (19.3 bar), carbon-negative hydrogen (H2) from glycerol with a purity of 98.2 mol% H2, 1.8 mol% light hydrocarbons (mainly methane), and 400 ppm of CO. Aqueous phase reforming (APR) of 10 wt% glycerol solution was studied with a series of NiPt alumina bimetallic catalysts supported on alumina. The Ni8Pt1-450 catalyst had the highest hydrogen selectivity (95.6%) and the lowest alkanes selectivity (3.7%) of the tested catalysts. The hydrogen selectivity decreased in the order of Ni8Pt1-450 > Ni8Pt1-260 > Ni1Pt1-260 > Pt-260. The CO2 was sequestered with CaO adsorbent which formed CaCO3. We measured the adsorption capacity of the CaO adsorbent at different temperatures. Life cycle analysis showed that the APR of glycerol coupled with CO2 capture has net negative CO2 equivalent greenhouse gas emissions. The CO2 emissions are −9.9 kg CO2 eq./kg H2 and −50.1 kg CO2 eq./kg H2 when grid electricity and renewable electricity are used, respectively, and the CO2 is allocated respectively to the mass of products produced. The cost of this H2 (denoted as “green-emerald”) was estimated to be 2.4 USD per kg H2 when grid electricity is used and 2.7 USD per kg H2 when using renewable electricity. The cost of glycerol has the highest contribution of 1.71 USD per kg H2. Participation in the carbon credit markets can further decrease the price of the produced H2.
Carbon-negative hydrogen: aqueous phase reforming (APR) of glycerol over NiPt bimetallic catalyst coupled with CO 2 sequestration
Herein we report the production of high-pressure (19.3 bar), carbon-negative hydrogen (H 2 ) from glycerol with a purity of 98.2 mol% H 2 , 1.8 mol% light hydrocarbons (mainly methane), and 400 ppm of CO. Aqueous phase reforming (APR) of 10 wt% glycerol solution was studied with a series of NiPt alumina bimetallic catalysts supported on alumina. The Ni 8 Pt 1 -450 catalyst had the highest hydrogen selectivity (95.6%) and the lowest alkanes selectivity (3.7%) of the tested catalysts. The hydrogen selectivity decreased in the order of Ni 8 Pt 1 -450 > Ni 8 Pt 1 -260 > Ni 1 Pt 1 -260 > Pt-260. The CO 2 was sequestered with CaO adsorbent which formed CaCO 3 . We measured the adsorption capacity of the CaO adsorbent at different temperatures. Life cycle analysis showed that the APR of glycerol coupled with CO 2 capture has net negative CO 2 equivalent greenhouse gas emissions. The CO 2 emissions are –9.9 kg CO 2 eq./kg H 2 and –50.1 kg CO 2 eq./kg H 2 when grid electricity and renewable electricity are used, respectively, and the CO 2 is allocated respectively to the mass of products produced. The cost of this H 2 (denoted as “green-emerald”) was estimated to be 2.4 USD per kg H 2 when grid electricity is used and 2.7 USD per kg H 2 when using renewable electricity. The cost of glycerol has the highest contribution of 1.71 USD per kg H 2 . As a result, participation in the carbon credit markets can further decrease the price of the produced H 2 .
Abstract for CRADA between National Energy Technology Laboratory and Mattiq, Inc.
To decarbonize the chemicals and fuels industry, we require new and innovative technologies that can leverage renewable feedstocks including renewable electricity and renewable carbon sources, such as CO 2 . State-of-the-art (SOTA) CO 2 utilization technologies that can produce renewable chemicals and fuels, such as the electrochemical reduction of CO 2 , are still significantly lacking in efficiency, and are therefore not cost-competitive with existing infrastructure. The key bottleneck to cost-competitive chemicals and fuels sourced from CO 2 and renewable electricity is the lack of any efficient catalyst material. The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and Mattiq will collaborate in the development of an efficient catalyst material that can effectively convert CO 2 into products of interest. Specifically, NETL will utilize high-performance computing to greatly reduce the number of potential materials to be investigated by Mattiq ultrahigh-throughput experimental catalyst discovery framework. This work is poised to rapidly accelerate the development of novel and efficient CO 2 reduction electrocatalysts that can bring CO 2 utilization closer to commercial viability.
Comparison of ammonia with methanol, liquefied natural gas and conventional marine transportation fuels through life cycle cost and emissions analysis
This work evaluates ammonia as a potential marine fuel for a SUEZMAX tanker and compares it with methanol, liquefied natural gas, and conventional fuel oils. The motivation arises from the need to identify low-emission, cost-competitive fuel options that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping. The central hypothesis is that ammonia produced from renewable energy sources can achieve lower well-to-wake greenhouse gas emissions with varying life cycle costs based on the region. Life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis were performed for a thirty-year vessel lifetime on two representative trade routes: from Saudi Arabia to Japan and from Saudi Arabia to the Netherlands. Four ammonia production pathways were assessed: natural gas, natural gas with carbon capture, natural gas pyrolysis, and renewable electricity–based synthesis. Results show that wind-based ammonia produced in Saudi Arabia achieved the lowest life cycle well-to-wake greenhouse gas emissions, between 0.58 and 0.64 million metric tons, among all fuels when using regional grid process electricity. With renewable process electricity, ammonia produced from natural gas pyrolysis in Saudi Arabia showed comparable emissions of 0.37 to 0.44 million metric tons with wind-based ammonia of 0.37 to 0.43 million metric tons. Liquefied natural gas exhibited the lowest life cycle cost, between 402 and 412 million United States dollars, and the only negative carbon abatement cost, ranging from −277 to –322 United States dollars per metric ton of greenhouse gas, compared with high sulfur fuel oil. The findings indicate that renewable ammonia offers a promising long-term pathway for reducing shipping emissions, while liquefied natural gas remains the most cost-effective option in the near term.
Guam Energy Strategies
In 2024, GPA met approximately 12%1 of electricity sales with renewable energy, up from 6% in 20202. GPA's 2021 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) charts a potential path to meeting 100% renewable electricity by 2040. Since achieving 100% will require significant infrastructure investment to transition the power system to renewable electricity generation, Guam Energy Strategies is exploring technology options, locations, resource adequacy, rate impacts, and other considerations for reaching Guam's energy goals.