Achieving equitable widespread residential building electrification – examining barriers, strategies, and opportunities using Los Angeles as a case study
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32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
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Lawrence, Massachusetts, Residential Building Efficiency and Electrification Analysis [Slides]
As part of the Communities Local Energy Action Program (CLEAP), the Lawrence Stakeholders Coalition (LSC) is interested in assessing and understanding the potential for and pathways to electrification for the City of Lawrence. The LSC's main questions are: What is the impact of various electrification packages on residential electricity bills and what types of buildings should the LSC target for electrification plus weatherization packages? This technical assistance, using ResStock tool modeling, aims to assist the Coalition's electrification and energy burden reduction planning by: 1. Providing cross-cutting data on housing stock characteristics, energy burden characteristics, fuel types, energy consumption, and system efficiency; and 2. Providing information on upgrade package costs, emissions reduction, and energy reductions by prioritized housing segment. The ResStock analysis presented here focuses on opportunities to reduce energy burden, energy consumption, and energy bills for single family homes, multifamily buildings, and mobile homes.
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Leveraging NREL's ResStock & ComStock Dataset to Evaluate Building Stock Electrification: Preprint
Residential and commercial buildings accounted for 40% of U.S. energy consumption in 2022 and represent a significant opportunity for decarbonization through energy efficiency and electrification, and for grid planning. Building stock energy modeling is a powerful tool that can evaluate what-if scenarios as utilities, municipalities, policymakers, building owners and others work towards equitable building decarbonization and climate goals. This presentation will highlight several high-impact use cases of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)'s highly granular, bottom-up building stock energy modeling tools, ResStock and ComStock. These use cases cover a wide range of project scale, from neighborhood electrification analysis and municipality long-term energy planning, to state energy code development and national policy evaluation. This presentation will showcase specific real-world applications for which ResStock and ComStock have been utilized across the country, including California codes and standards cost-effectiveness analysis, New York City affordable housing electrification cost gap analysis, and California targeted electrification and gas decommissioning analysis. For each use case, this presentation will illustrate how ResStock and ComStock played a crucial role in accurately characterizing regional building stocks, providing discrete and aggregated end-use load shapes, and calculating lifecycle consumption, emissions, and costs for a variety of building electrification strategies and scenarios. Finally, this presentation will demonstrate how the data provided by ResStock and ComStock can help unlock significant outcomes for these use cases, including but not limited to, customer bill impact, incentive and program design, and energy equity analyses.
building stock modeling↗
Informing electrification strategies of residential neighborhoods with urban building energy modeling
Electrifying end uses is a key strategy to reducing GHG emissions in buildings. However, it may increase peak electricity demand that triggers the need to upgrade the existing power distribution system, leading to delays in electrification and needs of significant investment. There is also concern that building electrification may cause an increase of energy costs, leading to further energy burden for low-income communities. This study uses the urban scale building modeling tool CityBES to assess the electrification impacts of more than 43,000 residential buildings in a neighborhood of Portland, Oregon, USA. Energy efficiency upgrades were investigated on their potential to mitigate the increase of peak electricity demand and energy burden. Simulation results from the calibrated EnergyPlus models show that electrification with heat pumps for space heating and cooling as well as for domestic water heating can reduce CO2e emissions by 38%, but increase peak electricity demand by about 9% from the baseline building stock. Combining electrification measures and energy efficiency upgrades can reduce CO2e emissions by 48% while reducing peak electricity demand by 6% and saving the median household energy costs by 28%. City and utility decision makers should consider integrating energy efficiency upgrades with electrification measures as an effective residential building electrification strategy, which significantly reduces carbon emissions, caps or even decreases peak demand while reducing energy burden of residents.
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Equitable Strategies for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Electrification in San José, California
Hotter summers, heat waves, wildfires, and droughts are already affecting San Jose residents, with historically marginalized communities impacted first and worst. The City of San Jose has ambitious goals to make the city climate-neutral by 2030 and serve as an example for cities to accelerate climate action around the world. Electrifying and decarbonizing residential buildings are important priorities to achieve San Jose's plans to reach carbon neutrality while enabling residents to live the "Good Life 2.0" - a vision that aligns with community-identified priorities of safety, health, freedom, community, and positive experiences. This technical assistance built upon the Electrify San Jose: Framework for Existing Building Electrification to identify actionable strategies to make single- and multi-family buildings both energy-efficient and all-electric. This report is intended to provide the San Jose Climate Smart team and their partners with relevant data, insights, and actionable analysis to aid in-depth and nuanced engagements with key stakeholders. In particular, the findings in this report highlight opportunities and challenges for San Jose City Council, residents, building owners, developers, financial institutions, and utility partners instrumental in building support and earning buy-in for energy efficiency and electrification upgrades in existing buildings.
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Equitable Strategies for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Electrification in San José, California [Slides]
Hotter summers, heat waves, wildfires, and droughts are already affecting San Jose residents, with historically marginalized communities impacted first and worst. The City of San Jose has ambitious goals to make the city climate-neutral by 2030 and serve as an example for cities to accelerate climate action around the world. Electrifying and decarbonizing residential buildings are important priorities to achieve San Jose's plans to reach carbon neutrality while enabling residents to live the "Good Life 2.0" - a vision that aligns with community-identified priorities of safety, health, freedom, community, and positive experiences. This technical assistance built upon the Electrify San Jose: Framework for Existing Building Electrification to identify actionable strategies to make single- and multi-family buildings both energy-efficient and all-electric. This report is intended to provide the San Jose Climate Smart team and their partners with relevant data, insights, and actionable analysis to aid in-depth and nuanced engagements with key stakeholders. In particular, the findings in this report highlight opportunities and challenges for San Jose City Council, residents, building owners, developers, financial institutions, and utility partners instrumental in building support and earning buy-in for energy efficiency and electrification upgrades in existing buildings.
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Electrification of residential and commercial buildings integrated with hybrid renewable energy systems: A techno-economic analysis
Here, this study assesses the techno-economic viability of city-scale building electrification, comparing a base case scenario with conventional HVAC systems to an electrified scenario with heat pump systems. EnergyPlus simulations reveal a 28% increase in annual electricity consumption in the electrified scenario, shifting the peak consumption from summer to winter with a 49% surge. Hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs) are then evaluated using HOMER Pro, considering renewable penetration from 0% to 100%. The net present cost (NPC) of the base case and electrified scenarios range from $\$10.34$ to $\$24.38$ billion and $\$8.79$ to $\$50.31$ billion, respectively. Sensitivity analysis explores the impact of carbon tax, fuel price, and renewable subsidies on HRESs in the electrified scenario. Results indicate that applying a carbon tax up to $\$120$/tonne of CO 2 increases the optimum renewable fraction from 5% to 26%, while higher fuel prices and renewable subsidies further enhance the feasibility by shifting the optimum renewable fraction to 60% and 54%, respectively, demonstrating the interplay between economic factors and renewable integration in electrified urban contexts.
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Peak Reduction Using Mode Adjustment of Heat Pump Water Heaters in a Residential Neighborhood
Building electrification is putting pressure on distribution grid worldwide. Peak reduction is an important concern that can help reduce the growing stress and allow to defer investments in new capacity. Water heaters represent a convenient way of reducing peak because they are less dependent on weather, and their storage volume allows for asynchronous water heating and hot water use. Previous empirical studies investigated the ability of water heaters to reduce peak through the adjustment of the temperature setpoint. However, not all equipment vendors offer this option. This study aims at understanding the feasibility of peak reduction with an alternative configuration available in the market - by adjusting the device mode rather than temperature setpoint. The peak reduction methodology is tested in an occupied 46-townhome neighborhood located in Atlanta, GA. We find that peak shifting is possible with the adjustable mode approach, with the change in the peak load by 30-60%.
demand response↗
Towards COP27: Decarbonization patterns of residential building in China and India
As the two largest emerging emitters with the highest growth in operational carbon emissions from residential buildings, the historical emission patterns and decarbonization efforts of China and India warrant further exploration. This study aims to be the first to present a carbon intensity model considering end-use performances, assessing the operational decarbonization progress of residential building in India and China over the past two decades using the newest decomposing structural decomposition approach. Results indicate (1) the annual operational carbon intensity increased by 1.4% and 2.5% in China and India, respectively, between 2000 and 2020. Household expenditure-related energy intensity and emission factors were crucial in decarbonizing residential buildings. (2) Building electrification played a significant role in decarbonizing space cooling (–87.7 in China and – 130.2 kg of carbon dioxide (kgCO 2 ) per household in India) and appliances (~ –169.7 in China and ~ –43.4 kgCO 2 per household in India). (3) China and India collectively decarbonized 1498.3 and 399.7 M-tons of CO 2 in residential building operations, respectively. In terms of decarbonization intensity, India (164.8 kgCO 2 per household) nearly caught up with China (182.5 kgCO 2 per household) in 2020 and is expected to surpass China in the upcoming years, given the country's robust annual growth rate of 7.3%. Overall, this study provides an effective data-driven tool for investigating the building decarbonization potential in China and India, and offers valuable insights for other emerging economies seeking to decarbonize residential buildings in the forthcoming COP28 1 age.
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Assessing electrification readiness in U.S. single-family homes based on a nationwide survey of electrical panel capacities
Electrification of residential buildings is a key strategy for increasing the use of renewable energy sources. Central to this transition is understanding the capacity of existing electrical infrastructure—specifically electrical panels—to safely and effectively manage increased electricity demands from electrification technologies. However, comprehensive nationwide data on electrical panel capacities in U.S. single-family homes is currently lacking. To address this gap, we conducted a nationwide survey of single-family homes, collecting detailed data on electrical panel capacities, breaker slot availability, major electric and gas appliances, electrical panel models, and home characteristics such as construction year and floor area. Photographic documentation was used to verify electrical panel data and appliance information. Results show that approximately 60% of surveyed homes have electrical panels rated at ≥200 amperes (A), indicating that a significant portion of the existing housing stock can accommodate additional electric loads. However, 31% of homes possess panels rated at ≤100 A, potentially restricting their ability to adopt new electric appliances without significant upgrades. Panel capacities positively correlate with both home size and construction year, with newer and larger homes generally better suited for electrification. Homes with higher-capacity panels tend to have fewer gas appliances, reflecting a gradual shift toward electric technologies. Conversely, homes with lower-capacity panels frequently rely on multiple gas appliances, highlighting substantial electrification challenges. Additionally, approximately 3% of surveyed homes had potentially hazardous electrical panel models, emphasizing important safety considerations in the residential electrification process. Our findings underscore the need for targeted policies, financial incentives, and infrastructure investments designed specifically to address infrastructural and safety barriers, particularly in older and smaller homes, to support equitable and efficient electrification across the U.S. residential sector.
Gul, Sadia↗
Achieving equitable space heating electrification: A case study of Los Angeles
Not Available
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Low-Power, Load-Balancing Whole Home Electrification Solution: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)
Testing was conducted at the Systems Performance Laboratory in NREL’s Energy Systems Integration Facility to test the performance of 120V wall-mounted heat pumps, 120V heat pump water heaters (HPWH), Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE), and other plug-in loads, using NeoCharge Smart Splitters and whole home energy software as appropriate. Four different simulated occupancy scenarios were used to evaluate the package of technology and controls.
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Long-term impact of electrification and retrofits of the U.S residential building in diverse locations
The U.S. buildings sector contributes 30% of operational carbon emissions, with residential buildings accounting for 56%. Reducing residential carbon emissions is crucial for achieving net-zero carbon goal. While many studies examine energy efficiency retrofit (EER) and electrification, few explore their long-term impacts across diverse climates and dynamic grid clean energy penetrations, as well as their economic effects on households. Here, this study proposes a method to assess how EER and electrification affect long-term decarbonization and economics across different climates, focusing on carbon emissions, energy burden (the percentage of household income spent on energy), and payback period in four locations: Tampa, San Diego, Denver, and Great Falls. The study also introduces the concept of implicit energy burden by considering investment costs. Results show that while electrification can reduce long-term emissions with increased clean energy penetration, it may not always achieve decarbonization due to mismatches between clean energy availability and demand. In cooling-dominant locations, electrification lowers energy burden and peak demand, but in heating-dominant locations, it increases energy burden to 8.24%, raises peak demand by 632.78%, and shifts it from summer to winter. After integrating investment costs, the implicit energy burden can reach 8.35% in cold climates. For already highly electrified buildings in Denver and Great Falls, the payback period of EER measures can be shortened by up to 48.98%. The study highlights a tradeoff between decarbonization and energy burden alleviation, showing that while EER measures can reduce the energy burden, they only achieve one-quarter of the carbon emission reduction of electrification.
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Grid Planning for Building Electrification: A Report by the Energy Systems Integration Group’s Grid Planning for Building Electrification Task Force
The increased electrification of buildings across the United States is being driven by technical advancements, cost reductions for some building technologies, consumer preferences, and policy goals for decarbonization. However, the effects of this load growth on the electric distribution system are often only a minor consideration in policymaking and long-term planning studies. The long lead time and useful life of power system equipment means that the decisions taken today are expected to support our society well into the 2060s and beyond. Distribution planning stakeholders can take steps today to establish a grid foundation that captures the new challenges presented by building electrification. This report focuses on building electrification for the residential and commercial sectors, focusing most heavily on space heating, as this end use stands to most strongly impact demand.1 Across all end uses, building electrification could require somewhere between 10% and 70% more electricity generation capacity than exists today depending on technology adoption and energy efficiency.
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North Birmingham Housing Energy Baseline and Upgrade Strategies [Slides]
The community of North Birmingham, Alabama, participated in the Communities LEAP pilot program. As part of this technical assistance pilot, residential buildings, energy efficiency, and electrification were analyzed. This slide deck details the baseline analysis of residential buildings in the community and potential upgrade strategies.
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Decarbonizing residential buildings in the United States: A comparative analysis of households and construction professionals
In this study, we present a comparative analysis of surveys distributed to home occupants and construction professionals in the U.S., focused on energy upgrades and electrification retrofits that support residential building decarbonization. The surveys were executed by separate research groups and combined for this study. The study examines the decision-making, sentiments, perceptions, experiences, and practices of both groups by analyzing data from three separate surveys. These surveys assess technologies, attitudes, awareness, motivations, barriers, and opportunities related to energy retrofits and electrification. The analysis highlights key differences in the perceptions and behaviors of households and construction professionals, revealing substantial barriers to achieving decarbonization goals. For example, households cite climate change and sustainability as key motivators for pursuing energy retrofits (89%), while construction industry professionals view these themes as less important for their clients (44%). This suggests an opportunity for the construction industry to align its messaging with the values that households prioritize, helping to advance residential decarbonization. Overall, the study identifies challenges faced by both groups, factors influencing the adoption of energy-efficient practices, and inconsistencies between occupant and construction industry professionals' views. These insights contribute to the development of targeted strategies and policies to accelerate the decarbonization of residential buildings in the U.S.
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Housing Characteristics and Energy Burden Analysis for Highland Park, Michigan
Through the Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) Pilot, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) engaged the Highland Park Stakeholder Coalition to scope four technical assistance work areas to address their energy needs and goals. This slide deck addresses the highlighted tasks under work area "C", related to Housing Characteristics and Energy Burden Analysis. Assessed residential building energy consumption across different building envelope and electrification upgrades to see potential savings in energy consumption, emissions, energy bills, and energy burden.
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ResStock Technical Reference Documentation (V.3.3.0)
ResStock™ is the best-in-class building stock energy model for simulating and publishing energy use, utility bills, and greenhouse gas emissions from the residential sector of the U.S. ResStock answers two primary questions: (1) How is energy used in the U.S. residential building stock? and (2) What is the timeseries aggregate impact of energy technologies? Specifically, ResStock quantifies energy use across geographical locations, demographic groups, building types, fuels, end uses, and time of day. Additionally, it details the impact of efficiency or electrification measures: total changes in the amount of energy used by measure; where or in what use cases efficiency or electrification upgrade measures save energy; when or at what times of day savings occur; and which building stock or demographic segments have the biggest savings potential. This model, and the datasets it produces, are foundational to identifying pathways to affordable and equitable decarbonization of the U.S. residential buildings sector.
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