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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Considering Risk and Resilience in Decision-Making

This paper examines the concepts of decision-making, risk analysis, uncertainty and resilience analysis. The relation between risk, vulnerability, and resilience is analyzed. The paper describes how complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity are the most critical factors in the definition of the approach and criteria for decision-making. Uncertainty in its various forms is what limits our ability to offer definitive answers to questions about the outcomes of alternatives in a decision-making process. It is shown that, although resilience-informed decision-making would seem fundamentally different from risk-informed decision-making, this is not the case as resilience-analysis can be easily incorporated within existing analytic-deliberative decision-making frameworks.

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo↗

The Adaptable and Resilient Safety System: The Human Factor in Future In-Time Aviation Safety Management Systems

In-time integrated safety management will be paramount for safely enabling the envisioned transformations of the future National Airspace System (NAS). The path for realizing the vision includes addressing the increasing need for advanced data analytics and fusion of aviation safety data, managed by human decision-makers. The paper describes safety management systems and its’ challenges, and how the concept of In-time Aviation Safety Management Systems addresses the need to ensure an adaptable and resilient future safety system in the envisioned transformed NAS. Finally, it discusses potential human factors challenges, including new human roles and responsibilities, new information and cognitive requirements, new intelligent technologies that change human-system interaction and coordination, and new design paradigms for human system integration and teaming.

L. Prinzel↗

The Adaptable and Resilient Safety System: The Human Factor in Future In-Time Aviation Safety Management Systems

In-time integrated safety management will be paramount for safely enabling the envisioned transformations of the future National Airspace System (NAS). The path for realizing the vision includes addressing the increasing need for advanced data analytics and fusion of aviation safety data, managed by human decision-makers. The paper describes safety management systems and its’ challenges, and how the concept of In-time Aviation Safety Management Systems addresses the need to ensure an adaptable and resilient future safety system in the envisioned transformed NAS. Finally, it discusses potential human factors challenges, including new human roles and responsibilities, new information and cognitive requirements, new intelligent technologies that change human-system interaction and coordination, and new design paradigms for human system integration and teaming.

Aviation Safety↗

Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)

This Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) summarises the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation, based on the peer-reviewed scientific, technical and socio-economic literature since the publication of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. he assessment is undertaken within the context of the evolving international landscape, in particular, developments in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process, including the outcomes of the Kyoto Protocol and the adoption of the Paris Agreement. It reflects the increasing diversity of those involved in climate action. This report integrates the main findings of the AR6 Working Group reports and the three AR6 Special Reports. It recognizes the interdependence of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies; the value of diverse forms of knowledge; and the close linkages between climate change adaptation, mitigation, ecosystem health, human well-being and sustainable development. Building on multiple analytical frameworks, including those from the physical and social sciences, this report identifies opportunities for transformative action which are effective, feasible, just and equitable using concepts of systems transitions and resilient development pathways. Different regional classification schemes4 are used for physical, social and economic aspects, reflecting the underlying literature.

climate impacts↗

Design and validation of fault-tolerant flight systems

Flight systems must be validated to show that they are consistent with the requirements of their intended applications. While high reliability is difficult to validate, the additional complexity of fault tolerance further compounds the validation problem. The objective of NASA’s research is to develop a methodology for designing validatable fault-tolerant systems. Under the design-for-validation philosophy, emphasis is placed on developing validation methods that can be incorporated into the design process right from the start and design methods and guidance which, while incorporating fault tolerance, can assure validatability. This paper examines the statistical issues of validating highly reliable, fault tolerant system. There are many problems associated with traditional methods of designing and validating these potentially complex hardware and software systems. Useful design-for-validation methods, which include structured specification and design methodologies, mathematical proof techniques, analytical modeling, simulation and emulation, and physical testing, are discussed. Important design issues associated with fault tolerance are presented along with the related validation concerns which must be addressed. Experience has shown that synchronization and Byzantine resilience must accompany fault tolerance. Other design attributes associated with fault tolerance may be used by a designer on the basis of cost, weight, performance, and validation considerations.

Computer systems↗

Assessing the Viability of Using GEOS-Forecast Product for Landslides Forecasting: A Step Toward Early Warning System

Landslides across the globe are mostly triggered by extreme rainfall events affecting infrastructure, transportation and livelihoods. The risks are rarely quantified due to lack of data, analytical skills and limited modeling techniques. Knowledge of local to global scale landslide risks provides communities and national agencies the ability to adapt disaster management practices to mitigate and recover from these hazards. In order to minimize the risks and improve characterization of community resilience to landslides, it is vital to have reliable information about the factors triggering landslides such as rainfall, well ahead in time. Forecasting potential landslide activity and impacts can be achieved through reliable precipitation forecast models. However, it is challenging because of the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, an important factor in triggering landslides. Evaluation of the precipitation field, associated errors, and sampling uncertainties is integral for development of efficient and reliable landslide forecasting and early warning system. This study develops a methodology to assess the viability of using a precipitation field provided by a global model and its potential integration in the landslide forecasting system. The study focuses on the comparison between the IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission) and GEOS (NASA Goddard Earth Observing System)-Forecast product over contiguous United States (CONUS). GEOS model assimilates new observations every 6 hours, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. The framework is tested on the GEOS-Forecast Model initialized at 00 UTC using daily IMERG early product as reference using both categorical and continuous statistics. The categorical statistics includes the probability of detection (POD), success ratio (SR), critical success index (CSI), and the hit bias. Continuous statistics such as correlation, normalized standard deviation, and root-mean-square error are also evaluated. Overall, GEOS-Forecast precipitation field over the analysis period (~1 year) show underestimation with respect to IMERG early for the daily accumulated rainfall. However, the probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function of both show similar patterns. In terms of correlations, POD, SR, CSI, hit bias, the performance varies with respect to the rainfall threshold used.

Sana Khan↗

A NASA Supply Chain Beyond Low Earth Orbit: Explore Moon to Mars

Presentation will highlight the Space Shuttle Program Lessons Learned with a simulation of the complexity, volatility and multi-functional relationships of the supplier base followed by a review of a key element in the NASA KSC Supply Chain/Logistics Strategic Roadmap to include supply chain resiliency modeling as impacted by 3D Printing technology maturation and campaign-level network flow modeling for logistics nodal positioning of critical product needed to support space operations and In-Space Manufacturing beyond Low Earth Orbit.

Supply Chain Analytics↗

Development and Testing of an Innovative Two-Arm Focal-Plane Thermal Strap (TAFTS)

Maintaining temperature stability in optical focal planes comes with the intrinsic challenge of creating a pathway that is both extremely flexible mechanically and highly conductive thermally. The task is further complicated because science‐caliber optical focal planes are extremely delicate, yet their mechanical resiliency is rarely tested and documented. The mechanical engineer tasked with the thermo‐mechanical design must then create a highly conductive thermal link that minimizes the tensile and shear stresses transmitted to the focal plane without design parameters on an acceptable stiffness. This paper will describe the development and testing of the thermal link developed for the Portable Remote Imaging Spectrometer (PRISM) instrument. It will provide experimentally determined mechanical stiffness plots in the three axes of interest. Analytical and experimental thermal conductance results for the two‐arm focal‐plane thermal strap (TAFTS), from cryogenic to room temperatures, are also presented. The paper also briefly describes some elements of the fabrication process followed in developing a novel design solution, which provides high conductance and symmetrical mechanical loading, while providing enhanced flexibility in all three degrees of freedom.

flexible thermal strap↗

The Enigmatic Longevity of Granular Materials on Mars: The Case for Geologically Episodic Dune Formation

Martian sand dunes are concentrated in vast sand seas in the circumpolar belt of the planet's northern hemisphere, but they are also pervasive over the whole planet. Their occurrence is to be expected on a super-arid planetary surface subjected to boundary layer drag from a continually active atmosphere. Whilst their occurrence is to be expected, their survival is enigmatic. But the enigma only arises if the martian system is considered similar to Earth's --where sand is moved highly frequently, more or less on a seasonal basis. Experimentally it is readily demonstrated that active sand will soon wear down to small grains and eventually diminish to below the critical sand size required to sustain dune formation. According to conventional wisdom, sand moves at higher speeds on Mars than on Earth, and if it were to move as frequently as it does on Earth, then the dune-forming sand population should have long since disappeared, given the great longevity of the martian aeolian system (Sagan coined the term "kamikaze" grains to express this disappearance). No supply of sand could keep pace with this depletion, especially in light of the fact that Mars does not have very active weathering, nor significant crustal differentiation. On Earth, plate tectonics, magmatic activity, and general crustal differentiation over geological time have produced great concentrations of quartz crystals in the continental crustal masses. Not only are these quartz grains chemically and mechanically resilient, they are about the right size for being transported by either wind or water. Add to this, the geologically recent contribution of glacial grinding, and it is easy to see why there are dune field on Earth. So what are the martian dunes composed of, and how does the material survive the eons of attrition? In addition to experimental demonstrations of sand comminution in laboratory aeolian simulations, the problem can be approached from first principles. Sagan showed that by simple considerations of material strength versus mechanical work applied to the material, comminution to sub-sand size would be inevitable. Another semi-analytical approach might be taken by considering that the archetypal aeolian sand surface texture is an irregularly pitted ("frosted") surface composed of chipping hollows approximately 10 microns in diameter, 5 microns deep. Their volume = about 250 cubic microns, or about 1/25000 of the volume of a 100 micron diameter dune grain. Because a saltating grain always strikes another grain, then two surfaces are impacted. Thus each grain undergoes two impacts for every one saltation leap, when the impact statistics are considered for a closed dune system (it can be calculated that a grain can never undergo <1 impact, and never >2 per saltation leap). Hence, if we conservatively assume that there is damage to a grain each time it bounces, but with the minimum damage of only 2 microscopic craters per impact, then approximately 12,500 impacts are required to completely eliminate the grain. Of course, it would require only a fraction of this amount to reduce the grain to below sand size. A grain will make only several tens of saltation leaps on the stoss side of a dune before becoming buried on the lee slope. The dune then has to move its full length before the grain is exhumed again for abrasion. Even with this hiatus in transport, it is easy to see that terrestrial dunes need resupplying with sand in order to survive. In recent theoretical work it has been shown that martian aeolian transport may be initiated with high-speed grains, but this converts to a lower energy dynamic transport equilibrium in which a reptation population dominates grain transport (on Earth, at least half of the flux is by reptation and creep). On Mars, therefore, average grain speeds may be lower than those on Earth, or at least comparable. This would permit greater longevity for martian sands, but it would not go far enough to solve the survival problem. It may, however, explain why martian dunes are about the same size as terrestrial dunes. If martian saltation leaps were significantly longer than on Earth (as usually assumed), then a dune's lee slope would have to be correspondingly longer in order to trap the sand; this would scale up the whole dune structure. But with shorter trajectories in a reptation population, larger dunes would be unnecessary. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J.↗

Designing for Advanced Aerial Mobility: Human-Autonomy Teaming and In-Time System-Wide Safety Assurance

The continued growth of aviation shall require new innovative technologies and operational concepts to meet the ever-increasing demands on air transportation. The NASA Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) project focuses on emerging aviation markets, such as Urban Air Mobility (UAM). UAM is defined as “...a safe and efficient system for air passenger and cargo transportation within an urban area. It is inclusive of small package delivery and other urban unmanned aerial system services and supports a mix of onboard/ground-piloted and increasingly autonomous operations” ([1]). The AAM project emphasizes technology development and validating system-level concepts and solutions in coordination with other NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) projects to enable UAM metro- and micro-plex vertiport and airspace concepts of operations. The NASA AAM research portfolio includes the concepts of Remote Supervisor-in-Command (RSC) and Fleet and Airspace Manager (FAM) as possible human roles for consumer fleet providers. NASA research in RSC is focused on development of guidelines and standards for remote pilots/operators passively and actively controlling a large fleet of autonomous aircraft. For FAM, flight and ground system concepts and technologies to enable high density homogeneous operations at increased scale from vertiport(s), and coordination with other humans in the systems (e.g., UAM urban airspace manager, Air Traffic Control) are key research areas. The envisioned UAM operations are posited to require autonomous systems to enable functions ranging from fleet and resource management to vehicle control. Although automation has become increasingly sophisticated and ubiquitous in civil aviation, autonomy represents a significant evolution in automation, which has generally been limited in functional scope and capability. As autonomy takes on increasing responsibilities, humans and machines will be required to work together in new and different ways [2], rather than traditional design approaches focused on how machines (i.e., autonomy) can do the work of people. The emerging field of human-autonomy teaming (HAT) represents a comprehensive and prioritized research-driven approach to enable the success of future emerging aviation market applications through capabilities and principles that facilitate humans and machine working and thinking better together. The NASA Transformational Tools and Technologies (TTT) Autonomous System (AS) Sub-project was created to assist with the transition into higher levels of autonomy to enable new modes of air transportation, such as UAM. TTT-AS has identified HAT as a key research need to enable UAM while maintaining today’s ultra-safe aviation system safety levels. The latter challenge has been taken up by the NASA System-Wide Safety (SWS) Project, which recognizes that aviation safety, as it evolves, shall require new ways of thinking about safety to include integration of a wide-range of existing and new safety systems and practices, enhanced tools and technologies, increased access to data and data fusion, improved data analysis capabilities, enhanced in-time risk monitoring and detection, hazard prioritization and mitigation, safety assurance decision-support, and in-time integrated system analytics [3].The operational concept of UAM represents a variety of work that has been termed, “work-as-imagined” to characterize the idea that how people think that work is done and how work is actually done are often not the same [4]. To ensure design success and system safety, looking at “work-as-done” provides a comparative approach toward UAM concept and technology design through examination of corresponding analogs found today in aviation (e.g., on-demand operations) and other transportation domains (e.g., port operations). The paper shall discuss various alternative applications with specific focus on airline operation center (AOC) operations, and unmanned aerial system (UAS) command-and-control to inform scaled-versions of FAM and RSC, respectively, and with consideration of the national airspace system contextual environment. The tenets and principles of the HAT field and current NASA research efforts under the TTT-AS sub-project shall also be described. Finally, the SWS sub-project efforts to develop In-Time System-Wide Safety Assurance (ISSA) and In-Time Safety Management Systems (IASMS) are discussed in terms of how “in-time” safety assurance may be conceptualized for the on-demand mobility air taxi “work-as-imagined” operational concept [5]. As part of this effort, concepts from the emerging field of resilience engineering, are being studied. Traditional approaches to aviation safety have focused on what can go wrong and how to prevent it. Another approach to thinking about system safety should reflect not only “avoiding things that go wrong” (protective safety) but also “ensuring that things go right” (productive safety), that enables a system to exhibit the resilient performance [6] necessary for the success of the future aviation system emerging concepts of operations. The paper shall describe efforts focused on how productive safety and resilience may enable a more complete approach to system safety thinking and design of ISSA and IASMS for UAM. Future directions and research needs shall also be discussed.

resilience↗

NSCOR for Evaluating Risk Factors and Biomarkers for Adaptation and Resilience to Spaceflight: Emotional Valence and Social Processes in ICC/ICE Environments

Space exploration class missions, such as a mission to Mars, will require optimization of human performance, adaptability, and resilience. This NASA Specialized Center of Research (NSCOR) utilizes the NIMH Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) framework to identify biological and behavioral markers of individual social adaptation and emotional resilience (as well as vulnerability) to spaceflight-relevant stressors such as living in extended isolation. The overarching goal of this NSCOR is to obtain novel information to help identify biomarkers of individuals who are resilient and/or adaptable to the stressors of isolated, confined, and controlled (ICC) and isolated, confined, and extreme (ICE) environments.A total of N=90 healthy adult astronaut surrogates are being studied in three spaceflight-analog environments: (1) n=40 healthy adults in the Isolation and Confinement Analog Research Unit (ICARUS), an ICC at the University of Pennsylvania, during 7-day missions, for a target total of 280 subject days; (2) n=32 healthy adult astronaut surrogates studied in NASA’s Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA), an ICC at Johnson Space Center during 45-day missions, for a target total of 2,112 subject days; and (3) n=18 healthy adults in the Alfred-Wegener-Institute’s Neumayer Station III, an ICE in Antarctica, during 14-month missions, for a target total of 7,560 subject days. Dr. Nindl’s Laboratory at the University of Pittsburgh is analyzing a priori selected protein biomarkers in blood, saliva, and urine. Complementary rodent models of exposure to early life stressors, confinement, and isolation are being evaluated at Dr. Hensch’s Laboratory to further validate the neurobehavioral and biological findings from the human studies.Given the inconsistency and varied definition of resilience/adaptation in the scientific literature, the NSCOR team developed a composite resilience/adaptation measure that reflects the most relevant outcomes to resilience/adaptation across psychosocial and neurobehavioral functions, as well as neurocognitive and spaceflight-relevant operational performance. To achieve this, group consensus was attained from subject matter experts to produce a rank-order of importance for each input variable. The final resilience/adaptation score included 36 variables that were collected across spaceflight analogs. As of 10/1/2021, the NSCOR project acquired data on n=27 subjects at ICARUS, n=16 at HERA, and n=18 at Neumayer. The COVID-19 pandemic delayed data acquisition at ICARUS and HERA.Among subjects studied to date, 99% of neural and neurobehavioral data (e.g., neuroimaging for structure and function, behavioral measures) as well as blood, saliva, and urine for biochemical assays have been acquired. For rodent models, Dr. Hensch’s laboratory has established biochemical and behavioral parameters reflecting confinement stress in social networks of mice for comparison to stress responses in the human spaceflight analog environments.Group social behaviors were measured with a Social Network Analysis (SNA) approach to define objective parameters associated with sociability and its plasticity by sex. This analytic approach may help identify a network of individuals who are more effective teammates or more likely to generate new social relationships. Data acquisition, biomarker assessment, and data quality control will continue through September 2022.

D F Dinges↗