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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Planning Under Continuous Time and Resource Uncertainty: A Challenge for AI

There has been considerable work in Al on decision-theoretic planning and planning under uncertainty. Unfortunately, all of this work suffers from one or more of the following limitations: 1) it relies on very simple models of actions and time, 2) it assumes that uncertainty is manifested in discrete action outcomes, and 3) it is only practical for very small problems. For many real world problems, these assumptions fail to hold. A case in point is planning the activities for a Mars rover. For this domain none of the above assumptions are valid: 1) actions can be concurrent and have differing durations, 2) there is uncertainty concerning action durations and consumption of continuous resources like power, and 3) typical daily plans involve on the order of a hundred actions. We describe the rover problem, discuss previous work on planning under uncertainty, and present a detailed. but very small, example illustrating some of the difficulties of finding good plans.

Bresina, John↗
NASA NTRS1987

Simulation Of Research And Development Projects

Measures of preference for alternative project plans calculated. Simulation of Research and Development Projects (SIMRAND) program aids in optimal allocation of research and development resources needed to achieve project goals. Models system subsets or project tasks as various network paths to final goal. Each path described in terms of such task variables as cost per hour, cost per unit, and availability of resources. Uncertainty incorporated by treating task variables as probabilistic random variables. Written in Microsoft FORTRAN 77.

Miles, Ralph F.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Modeling Uncertainty in Large Natural Resource Allocation Problems

The productivity of the world's natural resources is critically dependent on a variety of highly uncertain factors, which obscure individual investors and governments that seek to make long-term, sometimes irreversible investments in their exploration and utilization. These dynamic considerations are poorly represented in disaggregated resource models, as incorporating uncertainty into large-dimensional problems presents a challenging computational task. This study introduces a novel numerical method to solve large-scale dynamic stochastic natural resource allocation problems that cannot be addressed by conventional methods. The method is illustrated with an application focusing on the allocation of global land resource use under stochastic crop yields due to adverse climate impacts and limits on further technological progress. For the same model parameters, the range of land conversion is considerably smaller for the dynamic stochastic model as compared to deterministic scenario analysis. The scenario analysis can thus significantly overstate the magnitude of expected land conversion under uncertain crop yields.

Cai, Yongyang↗
NASA NTRS2024

Assessing Effects of Climate and Technology Uncertainties in Large Natural Resource Allocation Problems

The productivity of the world's natural resources is critically dependent on a variety of highly uncertain factors, which obscure individual investors and governments that seek to make long-term, sometimes irreversible, investments in their exploration and utilization. These dynamic considerations are poorly represented in disaggregated resource models, as incorporating uncertainty into large-dimensional problems presents a challenging computational task. In this paper, we apply the SCEQ algorithm (Cai and Judd, 2023) to solve a large-scale dynamic stochastic global land resource use problem with stochastic crop yields due to adverse climate impacts and limits on further technological progress. For the same model parameters and bounded shocks, the range of land conversion is considerably smaller for the dynamic stochastic model than for deterministic scenario analysis.

numerical methods↗
NASA NTRS2005

Software for Automation of Real-Time Agents, Version 2

Version 2 of Closed Loop Execution and Recovery (CLEaR) has been developed. CLEaR is an artificial intelligence computer program for use in planning and execution of actions of autonomous agents, including, for example, Deep Space Network (DSN) antenna ground stations, robotic exploratory ground vehicles (rovers), robotic aircraft (UAVs), and robotic spacecraft. CLEaR automates the generation and execution of command sequences, monitoring the sequence execution, and modifying the command sequence in response to execution deviations and failures as well as new goals for the agent to achieve. The development of CLEaR has focused on the unification of planning and execution to increase the ability of the autonomous agent to perform under tight resource and time constraints coupled with uncertainty in how much of resources and time will be required to perform a task. This unification is realized by extending the traditional three-tier robotic control architecture by increasing the interaction between the software components that perform deliberation and reactive functions. The increase in interaction reduces the need to replan, enables earlier detection of the need to replan, and enables replanning to occur before an agent enters a state of failure.

Fisher, Forest↗
NASA NTRS2012

Planning as an Iterative Process

Activity planning for missions such as the Mars Exploration Rover mission presents many technical challenges, including oversubscription, consideration of time, concurrency, resources, preferences, and uncertainty. These challenges have all been addressed by the research community to varying degrees, but significant technical hurdles still remain. In addition, the integration of these capabilities into a single planning engine remains largely unaddressed. However, I argue that there is a deeper set of issues that needs to be considered namely the integration of planning into an iterative process that begins before the goals, objectives, and preferences are fully defined. This introduces a number of technical challenges for planning, including the ability to more naturally specify and utilize constraints on the planning process, the ability to generate multiple qualitatively different plans, and the ability to provide deep explanation of plans.

Smith, David E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

An Integrated Gate Turnaround Management Concept Leveraging Big Data/Analytics for NAS Performance Improvements

The Integrated Gate Turnaround Management (IGTM) concept was developed to improve the gate turnaround performance at the airport by leveraging relevant historical data to support optimization of airport gate operations, which include: taxi to the gate, gate services, push back, taxi to the runway, and takeoff, based on available resources, constraints, and uncertainties. By analyzing events of gate operations, primary performance dependent attributes of these events were identified for the historical data analysis such that performance models can be developed based on uncertainties to support descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive functions. A system architecture was developed to examine system requirements in support of such a concept. An IGTM prototype was developed to demonstrate the concept using a distributed network and collaborative decision tools for stakeholders to meet on time pushback performance under uncertainties.

Big Data and Net-enabled ATM↗
NASA NTRS2005

Enabling Autonomous Rover Science through Dynamic Planning and Scheduling

This paper describes how dynamic planning and scheduling techniques can be used onboard a rover to autonomously adjust rover activities in support of science goals. These goals could be identified by scientists on the ground or could be identified by onboard data-analysis software. Several different types of dynamic decisions are described, including the handling of opportunistic science goals identified during rover traverses, preserving high priority science targets when resources, such as power, are unexpectedly over-subscribed, and dynamically adding additional, ground-specified science targets when rover actions are executed more quickly than expected. After describing our specific system approach, we discuss some of the particular challenges we have examined to support autonomous rover decision-making. These include interaction with rover navigation and path-planning software and handling large amounts of uncertainty in state and resource estimations.

planning↗
NASA NTRS2021

A sampling-based optimization approach to handling environmental uncertainty for a planetary lander

Planning for unknown environments presents a number of technical challenges. The planner must ensure robustness to unknown phenomena and manage unpredictable variation in execution, all while operating in a capacity that maximizes its objective. Productivity in the face of these challenges re-quires an integrated approach to planning and execution that is capable of accomplishing goals, reacting to variation, and maximizing overall utility. We examine this problem in the context of a Europa Lander concept mission. We model the problem as a hierarchical task network, framing it as a utility maximization problem constrained on a depletable energy resource. We propose an uncertainty–sensitive deterministic planning framework that utilizes periodic replanning to better handle model uncertainty and variable execution. We demonstrate the efficacy of our framework through simulations of a Europa Lander concept mission in which our algorithm out-performs several baseline approaches in both utility maximization and robustness

Zilberstein, Shlomo↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Sampling-Based Optimization Approach to Handling Environmental Uncertainty for a Planetary Lander

Planning for unknown environments presents a number of technical challenges. The planner must ensure robustness to unknown phenomena and manage unpredictable variation in execution, all while operating in a capacity that maximizes its objective. Productivity in the face of these challenges re-quires an integrated approach to planning and execution that is capable of accomplishing goals, reacting to variation, and maximizing overall utility. We examine this problem in the context of a Europa Lander concept mission. We model the problem as a hierarchical task network, framing it as a utility maximization problem constrained on a depletable energy resource. We propose an uncertainty–sensitive deterministic planning framework that utilizes periodic replanning to better handle model uncertainty and variable execution. We demonstrate the efficacy of our framework through simulations of a Europa Lander concept mission in which our algorithm out-performs several baseline approaches in both utility maximization and robustness

Chien, Steve↗
NASA NTRS1965

Lunar geothermal power - Some problems and potentials

Power from geothermal deposits on earth is an established fact, with plant capacities ranging from a few kilowatts to several hundred megawatts. The increasing evidence for contemporary volcanic and fumarolic activity on the moon lends strong support to the validity of the concepts of utilizing geothermal fluids as a source of lunar power. Geothermal energy, whatever the size of installation desired, will probably not be an energy source during early exploratory operations, because of the inherent uncertainty in developing natural resources. On the other hand, the attractiveness of geothermal concepts with their abundant potential for byproduct fuel and life-support production, plus the potential for large continuous power outputs, suggests chat the location and testing of areas of geothermal potential should be an early goa] for lunar exploration efforts. This paper briefly describes the chemical and structural properties of geothermal deposits and outlines the differences expected between lunar and terrestrial deposits and their surface expressions. The problems of finding geothermal deposits, and of then deciding upon the probable subsurface exploitive testing for initial production are suggested and the problems inherent in large-scale geothermal development and utilization are indicated.

ENERGY SOURCE↗
NASA NTRS2006

Using Planning, Scheduling and Execution for Autonomous Mars Rover Operations

With each new rover mission to Mars, rovers are traveling significantly longer distances. This distance increase raises not only the opportunities for science data collection, but also amplifies the amount of environment and rover state uncertainty that must be handled in rover operations. This paper describes how planning, scheduling and execution techniques can be used onboard a rover to autonomously generate and execute rover activities and in particular to handle new science opportunities that have been identified dynamically. We also discuss some of the particular challenges we face in supporting autonomous rover decision-making. These include interaction with rover navigation and path-planning software and handling large amounts of uncertainty in state and resource estimations. Finally, we describe our experiences in testing this work using several Mars rover prototypes in a realistic environment.

automated rover operations↗
NASA NTRS2017

Selection of a Representative Subset of Global Climate Models that Captures the Profile of Regional Changes for Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment

We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P) GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs) for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry) are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

Climate Change; GCMs; Climate Model Subset; Repres↗
NASA NTRS2021

Placing the East-West North American Aridity Gradient in a Multi-Century Context

Instrumental records indicate a century-long trend towards drying over western North America and wetting over eastern North America. A continuation of these trends into the future would have significant hydroclimatic and socioeconomic consequences in both the semi-arid Southwest and humid East. Using tree-ring reconstructions and hydrologic simulations of summer soil moisture, we evaluate and contextualize the modern summer aridity gradient within its natural range of variability established over the past 600 years and evaluate the effects of observed and anthropogenic precipitation, temperature, and humidity trends. The 2001–2020 positive (wet east-dry west) aridity gradient was larger than any 20-year period since 1400 CE, preceded by the most negative (wet west-dry east) aridity gradient during 1976-1995, leading to a strong multi-decade reversal in aridity gradient anomalies that was rivaled only by a similar event in the late-16th century. The 2001-2020 aridity gradient was dominated by long-term summer precipitation increases in the Midwest and Northeast, with smaller contributions from more warming in the West than the East and spring precipitation decreases in the Southwest. Multi-model mean climate simulations from CMIP6 experiments suggest anthropogenic climate trends should not have strongly affected the aridity gradient thus far. However, there is high uncertainty due to inter-model disagreement on anthropogenic precipitation trends. The recent strengthening of the observed aridity gradient, its increasing dependence on precipitation variability, and disagreement in modeled anthropogenic precipitation trends reveal significant uncertainties in how water resource availability will change across North America in the coming decades.

drought↗
NASA NTRS2024

Transboundary sky waters in the Middle East: definition, challenges, and opportunities

Transboundary water disputes in the Middle East have increased in recent years due to growing constraints on water resources. Efforts to harvest more water from the atmosphere through weather intervention projects have exacerbated existing conflicts. Here, we propose that atmospheric water vapor should be recognized as a transboundary resource that involves substantial uncertainty. As such, this note serves as a starting point for characterizing various components of this concept, the knowledge gaps, and a roadmap to address those gaps. These efforts would reduce uncertainties and help integrate the sky water into transboundary water negotiations and collaborative understanding.

Amin Dezfuli↗
NASA NTRS2016

Development of a Prototype Model-Form Uncertainty Knowledge Base

Uncertainties are generally classified as either aleatory or epistemic. Aleatory uncertainties are those attributed to random variation, either naturally or through manufacturing processes. Epistemic uncertainties are generally attributed to a lack of knowledge. One type of epistemic uncertainty is called model-form uncertainty. The term model-form means that among the choices to be made during a design process within an analysis, there are different forms of the analysis process, which each give different results for the same configuration at the same flight conditions. Examples of model-form uncertainties include the grid density, grid type, and solver type used within a computational fluid dynamics code, or the choice of the number and type of model elements within a structures analysis. The objectives of this work are to identify and quantify a representative set of model-form uncertainties and to make this information available to designers through an interactive knowledge base (KB). The KB can then be used during probabilistic design sessions, so as to enable the possible reduction of uncertainties in the design process through resource investment. An extensive literature search has been conducted to identify and quantify typical model-form uncertainties present within aerospace design. An initial attempt has been made to assemble the results of this literature search into a searchable KB, usable in real time during probabilistic design sessions. A concept of operations and the basic structure of a model-form uncertainty KB are described. Key operations within the KB are illustrated. Current limitations in the KB, and possible workarounds are explained.

Green, Lawrence L.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Corrosion Risk Assessment Model for Underground Piping

The Pressure Systems Manager at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) has embarked on a project to collect data and develop risk assessment models to support risk-informed decision making regarding future inspections of underground pipes at ARC. This paper shows progress in one area of this project - a corrosion risk assessment model for the underground high-pressure air distribution piping system at ARC. It consists of a Corrosion Model of pipe-segments, a Pipe Wrap Protection Model; and a Pipe Stress Model for a pipe segment. A Monte Carlo simulation of the combined models provides a distribution of the failure probabilities. Sensitivity study results show that the model uncertainty, or lack of knowledge, is the dominant contributor to the calculated unreliability of the underground piping system. As a result, the Pressure Systems Manager may consider investing resources specifically focused on reducing these uncertainties. Future work includes completing the data collection effort for the existing ground based pressure systems and applying the risk models to risk-based inspection strategies of the underground pipes at ARC.

Datta, Koushik↗