Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “response theory”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Gauge invariance and Ward identities in nonlinear response theory

We present a formal analysis of nonlinear response functions in terms of correlation functions in real- and imaginary-time domains. In particular, we show that causal nonlinear response functions, expressed in terms of nested commutators in real time, can be obtained from the analytic continuation of time-ordered response functions, which are more easily amenable to diagrammatic calculation. This generalizes the well-known result of linear response theory. We then use gauge invariance arguments to derive exact relations between second-order response functions in density and current channels. These identities, which are non-perturbative in the strength of inter-particle interactions, allow us to establish exact connections between nonlinear optics calculations done in different electromagnetic gauges.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Curing the Divergence in Time-Dependent Density Functional Quadratic Response Theory

While time-dependent density functional theory has emerged as a method of choice for computing electronic spectra and response of molecules and materials, its reliability is hindered by the adiabatic approximation that is commonly made. In this work, we address one problematic aspect that arises from this approximation: an incorrect pole structure in the quadratic response function, leading to unphysical divergences in excited state-to-state transition probabilities and hyperpolarizabilties. We find the form of the exact quadratic response kernel and derive a practical and accurate approximation that cures the divergence. Here, we demonstrate our results on excited state-to-state transition probabilities of a model system and of the LiH molecule.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benchmarking and Fidelity Response Theory of High-Fidelity Rydberg Entangling Gates

The fidelity of entangling operations is a key figure of merit in quantum information processing, especially in the context of quantum error correction. High-fidelity entangling gates in neutral atoms have seen remarkable advancement recently. A full understanding of error sources and their respective contributions to gate infidelity will enable the prediction of fundamental limits on quantum gates in neutral atom platforms with realistic experimental constraints. In this work, we implement the time-optimal Rydberg controlled-Z (CZ) gate, design a circuit to benchmark its fidelity, and achieve a fidelity, averaged over symmetric input states, of 0.9971 ( 5 ) , downward corrected for leakage error, which together with our recent work [Nature 634, 321–327 (2024)] forms a new state of the art for neutral atoms. The remaining infidelity is explained by an error model, consistent with our experimental results over a range of gate speeds, with varying contributions from different error sources. Further, we develop a fidelity response theory to efficiently predict infidelity from laser noise with nontrivial power spectral densities and derive scaling laws of infidelity with gate speed. Besides its capability of predicting gate fidelity, we also utilize the fidelity response theory to compare and optimize gate protocols, to learn laser frequency noise, and to study the noise response for quantum simulation tasks. Finally, we predict that a CZ gate fidelity of ≳ 0.999 is feasible with realistic experimental upgrades. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Tsai, Richard Bing-Shiun (ORCID:0000000286758677)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Response Theory for Dynamics

Quantifying the sensitivity - how a quantity of interest (QoI) varies with respect to a parameter – and response – the representation of a QoI as a function of a parameter - of a computer model of a parametric dynamical system is an important and challenging problem. Traditional methods fail in this context since sensitive dependence on initial conditions implies that the sensitivity and response of a QoI may be ill-conditioned or not well-defined. If a chaotic model has an ergodic attractor, then ergodic averages of QoIs are well-defined quantities and their sensitivity can be used to characterize model sensitivity. The response theorem gives sufficient conditions such that the local forward sensitivity – the derivative with respect to a given parameter - of an ergodic average of a QoI is well-defined. We describe a method based on ergodic and response theory for computing the sensitivity and response of a given QoI with respect to a given parameter in a chaotic model with an ergodic and hyperbolic attractor. This method does not require computation of ensembles of the model with perturbed parameter values. The method is demonstrated and some of the computations are validated on the Lorenz 63 and Lorenz 96 models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Relativistic spin hydrodynamics with torsion and linear response theory for spin relaxation

Using the second law of local thermodynamics and the first-order Palatini formalism, we formulate relativistic spin hydrodynamics for quantum field theories with Dirac fermions, such as QED and QCD, in a torsionful curved background. We work in a regime where spin density, which is assumed to relax much slower than other non-hydrodynamic modes, is treated as an independent degree of freedom in an extended hydrodynamic description. Spin hydrodynamics in our approach contains only three non-hydrodynamic modes corresponding to a spin vector, whose relaxation time is controlled by a new transport coefficient: the rotational viscosity. We study linear response theory and observe an interesting mode mixing phenomenon between the transverse shear and the spin density modes. We propose several field-theoretical ways to compute the spin relaxation time and the rotational viscosity, via the Green-Kubo formula based on retarded correlation functions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Second Linear Response Theory and the Analytic Calculation of Excited-State Properties

We present a method based on second linear response time-dependent density func- tional theory (TDDFT) to calculate permanent and transition multipoles of excited states, which are required to compute excited-state absorption/emission spectra, multi- photon optical processes, among others. In previous work, we examined computations based on second linear response theory in which linear response TDDFT was employed twice. In contrast, the present methodology only requires information from a single linear response calculation to compute the excited-state properties. These are eval- uated analytically through various algebraic operations involving electron repulsion integrals and excitation vectors. The present derivation focuses on full many-body wave functions instead of single orbitals, as in our previous approach. Here, we test the proposed method by applying it to several diatomic and triatomic molecules. This shows that the computed excited-state dipoles are consistent with respect to reference equation-of-motion coupled cluster calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performant automatic differentiation of local coupled cluster theories: Response properties and ab initio molecular dynamics

In this work, we introduce a differentiable implementation of the local natural orbital coupled cluster (LNO-CC) method within the automatic differentiation framework of the PySCFAD package. The implementation is comprehensively tuned for enhanced performance, which enables the calculation of first-order static response properties on medium-sized molecular systems using coupled cluster theory with single, double, and perturbative triple excitations [CCSD(T)]. We evaluate the accuracy of our method by benchmarking it against the canonical CCSD(T) reference for nuclear gradients, dipole moments, and geometry optimizations. In addition, we demonstrate the possibility of property calculations for chemically interesting systems through the computation of bond orders and Mössbauer spectroscopy parameters for a [NiFe]-hydrogenase active site model, along with the simulation of infrared spectra via ab initio LNO-CC molecular dynamics for a protonated water hexamer.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Graph-based quantum response theory and shadow Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics

Graph-based linear scaling electronic structure theory for quantum-mechanical molecular dynamics simulations [A. M. N. Niklasson et al., J. Chem. Phys. 144, 234101 (2016)] is adapted to the most recent shadow potential formulations of extended Lagrangian Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, including fractional molecular-orbital occupation numbers [A. M. N. Niklasson, J. Chem. Phys. 152, 104103 (2020) and A. M. N. Niklasson, Eur. Phys. J. B 94, 164 (2021)], which enables stable simulations of sensitive complex chemical systems with unsteady charge solutions. The proposed formulation includes a preconditioned Krylov subspace approximation for the integration of the extended electronic degrees of freedom, which requires quantum response calculations for electronic states with fractional occupation numbers. For the response calculations, we introduce a graph-based canonical quantum perturbation theory that can be performed with the same natural parallelism and linear scaling complexity as the graph-based electronic structure calculations for the unperturbed ground state. Further, the proposed techniques are particularly well-suited for semi-empirical electronic structure theory, and the methods are demonstrated using self-consistent charge density-functional tight-binding theory both for the acceleration of self-consistent field calculations and for quantum-mechanical molecular dynamics simulations. Graph-based techniques combined with the semi-empirical theory enable stable simulations of large, complex chemical systems, including tens-of-thousands of atoms.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Excited-State Densities from Time-Dependent Density Functional Response Theory

While the variational principle for excited-state energies leads to a route to obtaining excited-state densities from time-dependent density functional theory, relatively little attention has been paid to the quality of the resulting densities in real space obtained with different exchange-correlation functional approximations or how nonadiabatic approximations developed for energies of states of double-excitation character perform for their densities. Here we derive an expression directly in real space for the excited-state density, which includes the case of nonadiabatic kernels and consequently is able, for the first time, to yield densities of states of double-excitation character. Under some well-defined simplifications, we compare the performance of the local-density approximation and exact-exchange approximation, which are in a sense at the opposite extremes of the fundamental functional approximations, on local and charge-transfer excitations in one-dimensional model systems and show that the dressed Time-Dependent Density Functional Theory (TDDFT) approach gives good densities of double excitations.

approximation↗
DOE OSTI2020

A generalized Boltzmann kinetic theory for strongly magnetized plasmas with application to friction

Coulomb collisions in plasmas are typically modeled using the Boltzmann collision operator, or its variants, which apply to weakly magnetized plasmas in which the typical gyroradius of particles significantly exceeds the Debye length. Conversely, O’Neil has developed a kinetic theory to treat plasmas that are so strongly magnetized that the typical gyroradius of particles is much smaller than the distance of the closest approach in a binary collision. Here, we develop a generalized collision operator that applies across the full range of magnetization strength. Since there is no closed-form solution for the scattering cross section when plasma is strongly magnetized, the input to the collision operator is obtained by numerically calculating particle trajectories. To demonstrate novel physics associated with strong magnetization, it is used to compute the friction force on a massive test charge. In addition to the traditional stopping power component, this is found to exhibit a transverse component that is perpendicular to both the velocity and Lorentz force vectors in the strongly magnetized regime, as was predicted recently using linear response theory. As a result, good agreement is found between the collision theory and linear response theory in the regime in which both apply, but the new collision theory also applies to stronger magnetization strength regimes than the linear response theory is expected to apply in.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Heat transport in liquid water from first-principles and deep neural network simulations

In this work, we compute the thermal conductivity of water within linear response theory from equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, by adopting two different approaches. In one, the potential energy surface (PES) is derived on the fly from the electronic ground state of density functional theory (DFT) and the corresponding analytical expression is used for the energy flux. In the other, the PES is represented by a deep neural network (DNN) trained on DFT data, whereby the PES has an explicit local decomposition and the energy flux takes a particularly simple expression. By virtue of a gauge invariance principle, established by Marcolongo, Umari, and Baroni, the two approaches should be equivalent if the PES were reproduced accurately by the DNN model. We test this hypothesis by calculating the thermal conductivity, at the GGA (PBE) level of theory, using the direct formulation and its DNN proxy, finding that both approaches yield the same conductivity, in excess of the experimental value by approximately 60%. Besides being numerically much more efficient than its direct DFT counterpart, the DNN scheme has the advantage of being easily applicable to more sophisticated DFT approximations, such as meta-GGA and hybrid functionals, for which it would be hard to derive analytically the expression of the energy flux. We find in this way that a DNN model, trained on meta-GGA (SCAN) data, reduces the deviation from experiment of the predicted thermal conductivity by about 50%, leaving the question open as to whether the residual error is due to deficiencies of the functional, to a neglect of nuclear quantum effects in the atomic dynamics, or, likely, to a combination of the two.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

ORNL_AISD-Ex: Quantum chemical prediction of UV/Vis absorption spectra for over 10 million organic molecules

We performed calculations of electronic excitation energies and associated oscillator strengths based on the time-dependent density-functional tight-binding (TD-DFTB) method [1]. The SMILES (Simplified molecular-input line-entry system) strings of the molecules from the AISD HOMO-LUMO database [2] were converted to a 3D atomistic structure and stored in a PDB file after preliminary geometry optimization using the Merck Molecular Force Field (MMFF94) in RDKit [3,4]. The primary information stored in the PDB file archive consists of Cartesian coordinates for each atom of the molecule in their 3D location in space, along with summary information about the structure, sequence, and experiment. We then performed molecular geometry optimization using the density-functional tight-binding (DFTB) method [5] in the electronic ground state, followed by single-point excited states calculations, as described below. We note that, since RDKit employs a random choice for the generation of molecular conformers, the molecular geometries obtained in this dataset could be different from the ones that were generated when the AISD HOMO-LUMO dataset was generated. The computed excitation energies and associated oscillator strengths can be converted to predict UV/Vis absorption spectra, where excitation energies correspond to absorption peak positions, and oscillator strengths are a good measure of the probability of absorption of visible or UV light in transitions between electronic ground and excited states. The conversion of SMILES strings to 3D Cartesian coordinates of fully DFTB-optimized molecules was successful for 10,502,904 out of 10,502,917 molecules. For these molecules, both geometry optimizations and excited states calculations were successful. The DFTB calculations did not complete for 13 molecules of the original AISD HOMO-LUMO dataset. We still provide information about the geometry of these molecules. The molecules are diverse for chemical compositions (which span 5 non-hydrogen elements: oxygen, carbon, nitrogen, fluorine, sulfur) and molecular size (the smallest molecule contains 5 non-hydrogen atoms, and the largest molecule contains 71 non-hydrogen atoms). The DFTB method [5] is an approximation to density functional theory (DFT), utilizing a minimal basis set in conjunction with a two-center approximation to the electronic Hamiltonian and overlap matrix elements. The DFTB total energy is the sum of an electronic and a repulsive energy contribution, and their calculation requires optimized electronic parameters and diatomic repulsive potential energy functions. All DFTB calculations were performed using the DFTB+ code [6] (version 21.2) and the wrapper for DFTB+ in the Atomic Simulation Environment (ASE) (version 3.22.1) [7], which performed an internal conversion of Cartesian coordinates from PDB to the .gen file format. For the geometry optimizations on the electronic ground state potential energy surface of the molecules, we have chosen the third-order DFTB (DFTB3) method [5c] and employed the matching 3ob set of electronic parameters and repulsive potentials [8]. The empirical γ-damping for hydrogen bond correction, and Grimme's D3 empirical dispersion correction with Becke-Johnson damping (D3(BJ)) [9] dispersion correction was included to improve the description of non-covalent interactions. For excited states single-point energy calculations, we employed the TD-DFTB method in conjunction with the DFTB2 method [5b] and the matching mio [5b,10] and halorg [11] parameter sets. We opted to request the simultaneous calculation of 50 excited states for singlet transition to investigate sufficient number of excited states, based on linear response theory using the Casida equation [Ref: T. A. Niehaus, S. Suhai, F. Della Sala, P Lugli, M. Elstner, G. Seifert, and Th. Frauenheim. Tight-binding approach to time-dependent density-functional response theory. Phys. Rev. B, 63:085108, 2001] and the ARPACK diagonalizer [R. B. Lehoucq, D. C. Sorensen, and C. Yang. Arpack users guide: Solution of large-scale eigenvalue problems by implicitly restarted arnoldi methods, 1997. 46, 51]. The dataset contains 1001 tar.gz files. Tar files are named as “ornl_aisd_ex_1.tar.gz†through “ornl_aisd_ex_1000.tar.gzâ€. Additionally, the 13 failed molecules are in “ornl_aisd_ex_unprocessed.tar.gzâ€. Except for the tar files listed below, each tar file contains 10,500 molecules. Tar files numbered 34, 121, 128, 352, 360, 429, 495, 509, 518, 627, 676, 668, and 862 contain 10,499 molecules each. The last tar file numbered 1000 contains 13,417 molecules. The total size of the uncompressed dataset is over 283 Gigabytes. The code for calculating the electronic excitation energies and statistical analysis of the dataset is provided at the following GitLab repository: https://github.com/ORNL/Analysis-of-Large-Scale-Molecular-Datasets-with-Python Calculating the UV spectrum of a molecule requires performing 3 main operations: 1. Converting the smiles string representation of a molecule into a geometric structure where each atom is assigned XYZ coordinates. The geometric structure is written to the file smiles.pdb. 2. Using smiles.pdb to compute the relaxed geometry of the molecule, which corresponds with the position of the atoms at the position of equilibrium at the ground state. This generates the files band.out, detailed.out, and geo_end.gen. 3. Using geo_end.gen to calculate the UV spectrum of the molecule which is written into the file EXC.DAT. Every molecule in the dataset has its own directory. The files contained in each molecule directory are as follows: 1. geo_end.gen 2. detailed.out 3. band.out 4. EXC.DAT 5. smiles.pdb REFERENCES [1] Niehaus, T. A.; Suhai, S.; Della Salla, F.; Lugli, P.; Elstner, M.; Seifert, G.; Frauenheim, Th. Tight-binding approach to time-dependent density-functional response theory. Phys. Rev. B, 2001, 63, 085108/1-9. [2] Blanchard, A.; Gounley, J.; Metha, K.; Yoo, P.; Irle, S. AISD HOMO-LUMO. DOI: 10.13139/ORNLNCCS/1869409 [3] RDKit: Cheminformatics and Machine Learning Software. 2013, [http://www.rdkit.org] [4] Tosco, P.; Stiefl, N. and Landrum, G. Bringing the MMFF force field to the RDKit: implementation and validation. J Cheminform. 2014, 6, 1–4. [5] a) Porezag, D.; Frauenheim, T.; Kohler, T.; Seifert, G.; Kaschner, Construction of tight-binding-like potentials on the basis of density-functional theory: Application to carbon, R. Phys. Rev. B 1995, 51, 12947-12957; b) Elstner, M.; Porezag, D.; Jungnickel, G.; Elsner, J.; Haugk, M.; Frauenheim, Th.; Suhai, S.; Seifert, G.; Phys. Rev. B 1998, 58, 7260-7268; c) Gaus, M.; Cui, Q.; Elstner, M. DFTB3: Extension of the Self-Consistent-Charge Density-Functional Tight-Binding Method (SCC-DFTB), J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2011, 7, 931-948; d) Cui, Q.; Elstner, M. Density functional tight binding: values of semi-empirical methods in an ab initio era, Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys. 2014, 16, 14368-14377. [6] Hourahine, B. et al. DFTB+, a software package for efficient approximate density functional theory based atomistic simulations, J. Chem. Phys. 2020, 152, 124101/1-19. [7] Larsen, A. H. et al. The atomic simulation environment—a Python library for working with atoms. J. Phys.: Cond. Matter 2017, 29, 273002. [8] Kubillus, M.; Kubar, T.; Gaus, M.; Rezac, J.; Elstner, M. Parameterization of the DFTB3 Method for Br, Ca, Cl, F, I, K, and Na in Organic and Biological Systems, J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2015, 11, 332-342. [9] Brandenburg, J. G.; Grimme, S. Accurate Modeling of Organic Molecular Crystals by Dispersion-Corrected Density Functional Tight Binding (DFTB), J. Phys. Chem. Lett. 2014, 5, 1785−1789. [10] a) Niehaus, T. A.; Elstner, M.; Frauenheim, Th.; Suhai, S. Application of an approximate density-functional method to sulfur containing compounds. J. Mol. Struct.: THEOCHEM 2001, 541, 185-94; b) Elstner, M.; Hobza, P.; Frauenheim, Th.; Suhai, S.; Kaxiras, E. Hydrogen bonding and stacking interactions of nucleic acid base pairs: A density-functional-theory based treatment. J. Chem. Phys. 2001, 114, 5149-55. [11] Kubar, T.; Bodrog, Z.; Gaus, M.; Köhler, C.; Aradi, B.; Frauenheim, Th.; Elstner, M. Parametrization of the SCC-DFTB Method for Halogens. J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2013, 9, 2939-49.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chiral kinematic theory and converse vortical effects

Response theories in condensed matter typically describe the response of an electron fluid to external electromagnetic fields, while perturbations on neutral particles are often designed to mimic such fields. Here, we study the response of fermions to a space-time-dependent velocity field, thereby sidestepping the issue of gauge charge. First, we use a semiclassical chiral kinematic theory to obtain the local density of current and extract the orbital magnetization. The theory immediately predicts a "converse vortical effect," defined as an orbital magnetization driven by linear velocity. It receives contributions from magnetic moments on the Fermi surface and the Berry curvature of the occupied bands. Then, transcending semiclassics via a complementary Kubo formalism reveals that the uniform limit of a clean system receives only the Berry curvature contribution while other limits sense the Fermi surface magnetic moments too. We propose CoSi as a candidate material and suggest magnetometry of a sample under a thermal gradient to detect the effect. Overall, our study sheds light on the effects of a space-time-dependent velocity field on electron fluids and paves the way for exploring quantum materials using new probes and perturbations.

Chen, Kai↗
DOE OSTI2020

Intensity measure adequacy assessment for nonlinear site response using Information Theory

Nonlinear site response modeling is a crucial aspect of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. Site amplification models routinely rely on a rock intensity measure to characterize the strength of the bedrock motion. However, the adequacy of such intensity measures towards predicting amplifications across the oscillator period range has not been investigated in the literature. This paper analyzes the adequacy of rock intensity measures using state of the art criterion established in Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering and techniques from Information Theory. The efficiency and the sufficiency of several rock intensity measure are assessed. It was found that spectral accelerations at low periods usually are adequate for predicting amplifications across the period range. This supports the current practice of using Peak Ground Acceleration in Ground Motion Models. However, for extremely soft sites, which demonstrate nonlinear effects well into the period range, it is better practice to ensure that amplification and spectral acceleration share the same oscillator period. Lastly, for predicting the peak shear strain (an important parameter that controls nonlinearity of site response), Peak Ground Velocity is generally adequate, and this conclusion is in line with the definition of proxy shear strain.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

Abstract. The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4 mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 ∘C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗