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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

An Enhanced Computational Framework for Energy Storage Participation in Transmission Planning with Electricity Market Participation: Dynamic Market Participation Restriction Estimation

In the previous study and report, we developed a computational framework to explore the technical and economic viability of the dual use of pumped storage hydropower (PSH) for both transmission assets and market participation. The rationale for the dual-use application is to improve the resource utilization rate and reduce the cost recovery burden. A PSH-based transmission solution generally has a large capacity, which corresponds to a higher investment cost compared to a traditional line solution. Market participation may allow the PSH asset to offset part of its high investment cost. A critical question is whether it is economically and technically viable to allow dual use of a PSH-based transmission project without jeopardizing transmission system reliability. And a more specific follow-up question is how to improve market participation performance while maintaining transmission reliability. In this study, we extend the computational framework by updating the method to determine transmission service obligation requirements dynamically based on the possibility of the need for transmission service in operation. Specifically, we correlate the need for transmission service with the probability of thermal overloading on a monitored transmission line, which is essentially based on the probability distribution of power flow and its probability of exceeding the line rating based on system dispatch and operational uncertainties. In addition, the need depends on the level of risk that a system operator is willing to take. The higher the risk tolerance, the lower the requirement that the system operator would apply to the PSH project as a transmission asset. The requirements are updated every day before the PSH project determines its market participation strategy. With the updated transmission service requirements, it is expected that a PSH project can serve as a transmission asset when the transmission system is at risk and really needs it, while it can participate in a market with sufficient information and certain restrictions. In this way, the transmission service quality and market participation performance can both be improved.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Review of Fissile Material Exemptions and General Licenses in 10 CFR Part 71 - 14578

Title 10 of the United States (US) Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), Part 71, Packaging and Transportation of Radioactive Material includes requirements for the transport of fissile material in packages. These regulations provide requirements for packaging that is certified by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to transport fissile material, but the regulations also include provisions that allow for shipment of fissile material in packages that are not required to be certified by the NRC. These provisions include criteria for exemptions from classification as fissile material (10 CFR 71.15) and permit general licenses for limited quantities of fissile material and plutonium-beryllium special form sources (10 CFR 71.22 and 10 CFR 71.23, respectively). These regulations were revised by NRC as part of a broad rulemaking effort in 2004. These regulations are used frequently for a wide-variety of fissile material shipping operations and shippers must interpret the regulations for particular shipping situations. The quantity of fissile material that presents a criticality safety risk depends on the other materials in the system that might absorb neutrons emitted from fission or moderate (slow) those neutrons to lower energies where the probability of them creating an additional fission is highest. Besides the absorption and moderation of neutrons, other parameters that must be considered to ensure criticality safety are: the mass, concentration, or isotopic distribution of the fissile material; and the system geometry and neutron reflection of the package from surrounding materials. These parameters were carefully considered in developing the requirements for the exemptions from the classification of fissile material and the requirements for general licenses for fissile material. This paper will review the technical basis, intent, and anticipated usage of each of the fissile material exemption and general license provisions. Additionally, this paper will discuss the recent regulatory history of the Part 71 fissile material exemptions and general licenses, including the 2015 rulemaking effort. Finally, this paper will outline an upcoming NUREG/CR document regarding the fissile material exemptions and general licenses, and discuss recommendations that are being formulated for potential future revisions to the regulations. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Methodology for Risk-informed O&M decision making in power plants

Incorporation of real-time component information using equipment condition assessment (ECA) through the development of enhanced risk monitors (ERM) for active components in advanced reactor (AR) and advanced small modular reactor (SMR) designs. We incorporate time-dependent failure probabilities from prognostic health management (PHM) systems to dynamically update the risk metric of interest. This information is used to augment data used for supervisory control and plant-wide coordination of multiple modules by providing the incremental risk incurred due to aging and demands placed on components that support mission requirements.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2015

Credit Enhancements and Capital Markets to Fund Solar Deployment: Leveraging Public Funds to Open Private Sector Investment

Credit enhancements represent a variety of financial support structures that are designed to reduce risk to those holding the debt, including debt raised via a securitization process, and thus lower the required yield associated with the security. The purpose of all forms of credit enhancement is to increase the collateral against which notes are secured (Lin,1999). The following section evaluates is not guaranteed. Perceived risks of the solar asset class--including those related to technology, offtaker creditworthiness, and regulatory policy--can increase the required yield, increase probability of investor loss of interest and/or principal, or both. In many cases, this is a cyclical phenomenon: risk perception is fed by lack of historical knowledge, which is in turn fed by risk perception. Therefore, successful access to capital market investment in order to spur low-cost solar deployment depends on the success of this initial fledgling period.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing fluvial flood mitigation strategies: A multi-objective approach for cost-effective and socially-aware infrastructure feasibility analysis

Effective levee planning must balance capital cost, risk reduction, and community priorities. These objectives are rarely optimized together. This study presents a feasibility phase, simulationin-the-loop framework that couples terrain-based flood modeling with a socially aware multiobjective optimizer. Flood risk is measured as Expected Annual Exposed Population (EAEP), obtained by integrating exposure over Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) nodes, mirroring the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Flood Damage Reduction Analysis (HEC-FDA) expected-annual formulation but with people rather than dollars. Exposure per scenario is computed by overlaying binary inundation masks with a population surface at the tract level. Distributional fairness is encoded through a Group Benefit Share (GBS) constraint that requires high-SVI tracts to receive at least a baseline share of annualized benefits. Capital cost is represented by a height-dependent unit-cost model suitable for screening. This study addresses the two-objective problem, minimize cost and expected annual exposure subject to the GBS constraint, using Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) and leveraging Pareto front for feasibility phase decision making. Implemented with terrain-based flood modeling, GeoFlood, for rapid scenario evaluation, the framework is demonstrated in Southeast Texas. The results reveal clear trade-offs among cost, risk, and social benefits and identify non-dominated levee height configurations that satisfy the benefit-share floor. The contributions are a scalable decision support method that operationalizes expected annual population-based risk, embeds enforceable benefit-sharing guarantees, and uses lightweight simulation to explore large design spaces before higher fidelity design stages.

Flood mitigation↗
DOE OSTI2016

Development of a Severe Accident Analysis Engine Using Approximate Reasoning

In hypothetical severe accident scenarios, nuclear power plant safety is challenged by core degradation and release of fission products. To aid the plant operator and technical support center staff, research has been performed to develop understanding of severe accident phenomenology, assessing their risk and devise measures to mitigate accident consequences (Sehgal, 2011). Nuclear power plant accidents involve highly complex physical and chemical interactions, a large number of safety related systems, and emergency operating procedures (EOP) and severe accident management guidelines (SAMG). Large number of factors with uncertainty and stress can overwhelm the operators. The overall objective of the present research is to develop a methodology and tools that an operator can use to predict severe accident progression and make effective decisions to arrest and manage the accident under large uncertainties. Towards this goal, this study examines a novel approach that brings to bear a combined use of techniques in artificial intelligence (Russel and Norvig, 2010), including Bayesian Network (BN), Answer Set Programming (ASP) and Fuzzy Inference (FI) to achieve faster-than-real-time, yet sufficiently accurate analysis of severe accident progression. Bayesian network (BN) is a type of probabilistic graphical models that can be used to represent knowledge and conditional dependencies about an uncertain realm. It is useful for capturing the causal relationships in a complex system. It also allows prediction via Bayesian inference (Kelly and Smith, 2012). It is composed of nodes and edges, which express random variables and probabilistic relationships between the nodes, respectively. This relationship, given by conditional probability is calculated using stochastic methods. The BN is used in several systems for analysis and management of accident risk; e.g. (Knochenhauer and Frid, 2010). In those systems, the nodes or so-called 'effective factors' are presumably known within the network by system descriptions in SAMGs. There are two steps to configure the BN, namely (i) identifying compositions within the network and (ii) defining conditional dependency between nodes. The first step is performed following the spirit of ASP (Baral, 2003) using Prolog (Wielemaker, 2005). Knowledge representation is used to build databases required for processing by ASP. Knowledge representation is defined as the expression of knowledge in a way that is understandable to both human and computers. Originally knowledge indicates data, information and facts. To focus, knowledge should be formed to achieve a goal. In a severe accident, key physics and safety related components status are defined according to a failure mode. The conditional dependencies between nodes are generated by approximate reasoning using Fuzzy inference (Zadeh, 1995). Fuzzy logic is a multiple-valued logic to treat ambiguous features such as linguistic description. It indicates possibility, which is distinguished from probability. Fuzzy set consists of linguistic variables according to the fixed rule. In other words, even uncertain states could be expressed as not binary logic, but as many-value logic by rule-based technology. Fuzzy control system is comprised of Fuzzy inference engine that is performed based on the 'If-Then Rule'. The 'If-Then Rule' is of the following form. If Y1 is B11 and Y2 is B12 then Z is C1. If Y1 is B21 and Y2 is B22 then Z is C2. Y1 and Y2 are inputs, which indicate conditional variables. Z indicates decision-making and both B and C are linguistic variables. With this rule-based technique, the approximate reasoning can be realized by Fuzzy inference. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Mining data in a dynamic PRA framework

Computational (also known as Dynamic) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods employs system simulation codes coupled with stochastic analysis tools in order to determine probabilities of certain outcomes such as system failure. In contrast to classical PRA methods (i.e., Event-Tree and Fault-Tree) in which timing and sequencing of events is set by the analyst, accident progression is dictated by the system control logic and its interaction with system temporal evolution. Due to the nature of the problem, Simulation-Based PRA methods require large amount of computationally expensive simulation runs. In addition, these methods usually generate a large number of simulation runs (database storage may be on the order of gigabytes or higher). In this paper we investigate and apply several methods and algorithms to analyze these large amounts of time-dependent data. Furthermore, the scope of this article is to present a broad overview of methods and algorithms that can be used to improve data quality and to analyze and extract information from large data sets containing time dependent data. In this context, “extracting information” means constructing input-output correlations, finding commonalities, and identifying outliers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

Decision Analysis Methods For the Analysis of Nuclear Terrorism Threats with Imperfect Information

Protection of commercial nuclear fuel cycles against adversary groups who may attempt to steal weapons-usable material is an issue of interest to the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy. The wide array of potential nuclear fuel cycle configurations and the security measures that could be deployed to protect them pose a daunting system design problem. In general, there are billions of potential design configurations. Moreover, the design choices are not independent – the effectiveness of one design feature or security measure can affect the desirability of other design choices. To explore this issue, we develop a mixed-integer optimization problem that solves a complex decision tree to allocate security resources across a commercial nuclear fuel cycle configuration. A nominal UREX+ reprocessing facility is used to demonstrate how the model allocates resources across a particular fuel cycle facility and shows how the problem can be scaled up to include other facilities and design features in the fuel cycle. In our model, the defender first chooses a set of safeguards to implement in order to mitigate the risk of a terrorist theft from various unit operations in the reprocessing facility. The attacker observes the defender’s strategy choice and executes an attack to acquire material, including the possibility of declining to attack at all. The model considers the terrorist as an intelligent adversary with a set of attack strategies known to the defender. The strategic choices made by both the defender and attacker affect the probability of a successful attack by the terrorist and in turn affect the distribution of consequences to the defender. We use a decision tree to illustrate the interactions among costs, decisions, correlated uncertainties, and outcomes, and then show how to formulate the problem as a mixed-integer program with an equivalent solution. The novel features of our formulation include the following. First, as discussed above, we use a sequential game-theoretic formulation (a Stackelberg game). This formulation assumes the attacker can observe the defender’s actions before the attack is executed. Many previous game-theoretic studies have assumed attacker and defender act simultaneously without knowledge of the other’s strategy choice. We believe the sequential game formulation is more applicable for knowledgeable insider adversaries, the focus of this study. Second, we build on our previous work that has developed a methodology to reflect the correlation among probability distributions represented as discrete chance nodes in a decision tree. We illustrate how this methodology can be applied to two chance nodes in a decision tree that relate the quality of the materials that might be stolen or diverted by an adversary with the yield of a weapon that might be constructed from that material. In a decision tree, the dependence of the yield on the quality of the material could be modeled with conditional probabilities of the weapon yield given the quality of the materials obtained. For three outcome discretizations, this would require the assessment of nine conditional probabilities from domain experts as part of the model building effort. In contrast, our methodology will allow this same representation of the tree based on the assessment of the correlation between these two chance nodes by the experts, which we believe is a much easier and more reliable assessment task. The advantage of this approach increases as the number of dependent chance nodes grows in a decision tree representation of this problem. Third, we extend this approach to the approximation of the dependence between discrete binary events such as success or failure represented by binary chance nodes in a decision tree or in the special case of a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) based on an event tree. This extension is a novel application in this domain, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to determine the appropriate conditional probabilities on the binary chance nodes when the number of correlated uncertainties is more than two. Fourth, we show how these decision trees or probability trees can be formulated and solved as equivalent integer programming (IP) problems. The advantages of the IP representation include the opportunity to use the computing power associated with powerful optimization solver algorithms available on high speed computers to solve very large versions of these trees, and the ability to include several such models of different facilities into a much larger IP with connecting constraints that represent budget restrictions, number of available inspection opportunities in a given time window, or other dependencies among these facilities. Policy makers can use the resulting model to inform their decisions about how to assess terrorism risk and to safeguard the commercial nuclear fuel cycle.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Approach to Dependence Assessment in Human Reliability Analysis: Application of Lag and Linger Effects

Dependence assessment refers to an approach used in human reliability analysis (HRA) to adjust a human error probability (HEP) for the following action by considering the impact of the preceding action. It has been known to significantly affect the overall results of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). If the dependence assessment is not adequate, the result could be unconvincing for explaining the operator failures in the context of PSA. To date, several methods and some recent research have identified suggestions for treating dependence issues in HRA; however, these are still exclusively based on the intrinsic approach of the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP), an HRA method. THERP inevitably has a challenge with the subjectivity of expert evaluation as well as the requirement for PSA and HRA expertise with resource-intensive and time-consuming processes. This paper suggests an approach to dependence assessment that could not only minimize the influence of expert judgment, but also saves time to perform the analysis with reasonable manpower. It modifies existing HRA methods with considering lag and linger effects to apply dependence effects for them. Based on a representative HRA method, i.e., Standardized Plant Analysis Risk - HRA (SPAR-H), guidance for how to apply lag and linger effects for the HRA method is suggested. Then, an investigation is carried out to compare quantification results of the revised HRA method with that of the original approach based on experimental data.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Using Generalized Equivalent Uniform Dose Atlases to Combine and Analyze Prospective Dosimetric and Radiation Pneumonitis Data From 2 Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Dose Escalation Protocols

Purpose: To demonstrate the use of generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) atlas for data pooling in radiation pneumonitis (RP) modeling, to determine the dependence of RP on gEUD, to study the consistency between data sets, and to verify the increased statistical power of the combination. Methods and Materials: Patients enrolled in prospective phase I/II dose escalation studies of radiation therapy of non-small cell lung cancer at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) (78 pts) and the Netherlands Cancer Institute (NKI) (86 pts) were included; 10 (13%) and 14 (17%) experienced RP requiring steroids (RPS) within 6 months after treatment. gEUD was calculated from dose-volume histograms. Atlases for each data set were created using 1-Gy steps from exact gEUDs and RPS data. The Lyman-Kutcher-Burman model was fit to the atlas and exact gEUD data. Heterogeneity and inconsistency statistics for the fitted parameters were computed. gEUD maps of the probability of RPS rate {>=}20% were plotted. Results: The 2 data sets were homogeneous and consistent. The best fit values of the volume effect parameter a were small, with upper 95% confidence limit around 1.0 in the joint data. The likelihood profiles around the best fit a values were flat in all cases, making determination of the best fit a weak. All confidence intervals (CIs) were narrower in the joint than in the individual data sets. The minimum P value for correlations of gEUD with RPS in the joint data was .002, compared with P=.01 and .05 for MSKCC and NKI data sets, respectively. gEUD maps showed that at small a, RPS risk increases with gEUD. Conclusions: The atlas can be used to combine gEUD and RPS information from different institutions and model gEUD dependence of RPS. RPS has a large volume effect with the mean dose model barely included in the 95% CI. Data pooling increased statistical power.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2017

A Measure-Theoretic Algorithm for Estimating Bottom Friction in a Coastal Inlet: Case Study of Bay St. Louis during Hurricane Gustav (2008)

The majority of structural damage and loss of life during a hurricane is due to storm surge, thus it is important for communities in hurricane-prone regions to understand their risk due to surge. Storm surge in particular is largely influenced by coastal features such as topography/bathymetry and bottom roughness. Bottom roughness determines how much resistance there is to the flow. Manning’s formula can be used to model the bottom stress with the Manning’s n coefficient, a spatially dependent field. Given a storm surge model and a set of model outputs, an inverse problem may be solved to determine probable Manning’s n fields to use for predictive simulations. The inverse problem is formulated and solved in a measure-theoretic framework using the state-of-the-art Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model. The use of measure theory requires minimal assumptions and involves the direct inversion of the physics-based map from model inputs to output data determined by the ADCIRC model. Thus, key geometric relationships in this map are preserved and exploited. By using a recently available subdomain implementation of ADCIRC that significantly reduces the computational cost of forward model solves, the authors demonstrate the method on a case study using data obtained from an ADCIRC hindcast study of Hurricane Gustav (2008) to quantify uncertainties in Manning’s n within Bay St. Louis. However, the methodology is general and could be applied to any inverse problem that involves a map from model input to output quantities of interest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Prostate Stereotactic Ablative Radiation Therapy Using Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy to Dominant Intraprostatic Lesions

Purpose: To investigate boosting dominant intraprostatic lesions (DILs) in the context of stereotactic ablative radiation therapy (SABR) and to examine the impact on tumor control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Methods and Materials: Ten prostate datasets were selected. DILs were defined using T2-weighted, dynamic contrast-enhanced and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging. Four plans were produced for each dataset: (1) no boost to DILs; (2) boost to DILs, no seminal vesicles in prescription; (3) boost to DILs, proximal seminal vesicles (proxSV) prescribed intermediate dose; and (4) boost to DILs, proxSV prescribed higher dose. The prostate planning target volume (PTV) prescription was 42.7 Gy in 7 fractions. DILs were initially prescribed 115% of the PTV{sub Prostate} prescription, and PTV{sub DIL} prescriptions were increased in 5% increments until organ-at-risk constraints were reached. TCP and NTCP calculations used the LQ-Poisson Marsden, and Lyman-Kutcher-Burman models respectively. Results: When treating the prostate alone, the median PTV{sub DIL} prescription was 125% (range: 110%-140%) of the PTV{sub Prostate} prescription. Median PTV{sub DIL} D50% was 55.1 Gy (range: 49.6-62.6 Gy). The same PTV{sub DIL} prescriptions and similar PTV{sub DIL} median doses were possible when including the proxSV within the prescription. TCP depended on prostate α/β ratio and was highest with an α/β ratio = 1.5 Gy, where the additional TCP benefit of DIL boosting was least. Rectal NTCP increased with DIL boosting and was considered unacceptably high in 5 cases, which, when replanned with an emphasis on reducing maximum dose to 0.5 cm{sup 3} of rectum (Dmax{sub 0.5cc}), as well as meeting existing constraints, resulted in considerable rectal NTCP reductions. Conclusions: Boosting DILs in the context of SABR is technically feasible but should be approached with caution. If this therapy is adopted, strict rectal constraints are required including Dmax{sub 0.5cc}. If the α/β ratio of prostate cancer is 1.5 Gy or less, then high TCP and low NTCP can be achieved by prescribing SABR to the whole prostate, without the need for DIL boosting.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Effect of reconstruction methods and x-ray tube current–time product on nodule detection in an anthropomorphic thorax phantom: A crossed-modality JAFROC observer study

Purpose: To evaluate nodule detection in an anthropomorphic chest phantom in computed tomography (CT) images reconstructed with adaptive iterative dose reduction 3D (AIDR{sup 3D}) and filtered back projection (FBP) over a range of tube current–time product (mAs). Methods: Two phantoms were used in this study: (i) an anthropomorphic chest phantom was loaded with spherical simulated nodules of 5, 8, 10, and 12 mm in diameter and +100, −630, and −800 Hounsfield units electron density; this would generate CT images for the observer study; (ii) a whole-body dosimetry verification phantom was used to ultimately estimate effective dose and risk according to the model of the BEIR VII committee. Both phantoms were scanned over a mAs range (10, 20, 30, and 40), while all other acquisition parameters remained constant. Images were reconstructed with both AIDR{sup 3D} and FBP. For the observer study, 34 normal cases (no nodules) and 34 abnormal cases (containing 1–3 nodules, mean 1.35 ± 0.54) were chosen. Eleven observers evaluated images from all mAs and reconstruction methods under the free-response paradigm. A crossed-modality jackknife alternative free-response operating characteristic (JAFROC) analysis method was developed for data analysis, averaging data over the two factors influencing nodule detection in this study: mAs and image reconstruction (AIDR{sup 3D} or FBP). A Bonferroni correction was applied and the threshold for declaring significance was set at 0.025 to maintain the overall probability of Type I error at α = 0.05. Contrast-to-noise (CNR) was also measured for all nodules and evaluated by a linear least squares analysis. Results: For random-reader fixed-case crossed-modality JAFROC analysis, there was no significant difference in nodule detection between AIDR{sup 3D} and FBP when data were averaged over mAs [F(1, 10) = 0.08, p = 0.789]. However, when data were averaged over reconstruction methods, a significant difference was seen between multiple pairs of mAs settings [F(3, 30) = 15.96, p < 0.001]. Measurements of effective dose and effective risk showed the expected linear dependence on mAs. Nodule CNR was statistically higher for simulated nodules on images reconstructed with AIDR{sup 3D} (p < 0.001). Conclusions: No significant difference in nodule detection performance was demonstrated between images reconstructed with FBP and AIDR{sup 3D}. mAs was found to influence nodule detection, though further work is required for dose optimization.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Calculation of narrower confidence intervals for tree mortality rates when we know nothing but the location of the death/survival events

Abstract Many ecological applications, like the study of mortality rates, require the estimation of proportions and confidence intervals for them. The traditional way of doing this applies the binomial distribution, which describes the outcome of a series of Bernoulli trials. This distribution assumes that observations are independent and the probability of success is the same for all the individual observations. Both assumptions are obviously false in many cases. I show how to apply bootstrap and the Poisson binomial distribution (a generalization of the binomial distribution) to the estimation of proportions. Any information at the individual level would result in better (narrower) confidence intervals around the estimation of proportions. As a case study, I applied this method to the calculation of mortality rates in a forest plot of tropical trees in Lambir Hills National Park, Malaysia. I calculated central estimates and 95% confidence intervals for species‐level mortality rates for 1,007 tree species. I used a very simple model of spatial dependence in survival to estimate individual‐level risk of mortality. The results obtained by accounting for heterogeneity in individual‐level risk of mortality were comparable to those obtained with the binomial distribution in terms of central estimates, but the precision increased in virtually all cases, with an average reduction in the width of the confidence interval of ~20%. Spatial information allows the estimation of individual‐level probabilities of survival, and this increases the precision in the estimates of mortality rates. The general method described here, with modifications, could be applied to reduce uncertainty in the estimation of proportions related to any spatially structured phenomenon with two possible outcomes. More sophisticated approaches can yield better estimates of individual‐level mortality and thus narrower confidence intervals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Joint Cyber/Safety Risk in Nuclear Power Systems

This report presents an analysis of the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) for a generic Boiling Water Reactor (BWR)-4 NPP. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed Hazards and Consequences Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS) process is applied to the ECCS and its subsystems to identify unsafe control actions (UCAs) which act as possible cyber events of concern. The analysis is performed for two design basis events: Small-break Loss of Coolant Accident (SLOCA) and general transients (TRANS), such as unintended reactor trip. In previous work, HAZCADS UCAs were combined with other cyber-attack analysis to develop a risk-informed approach; however, this was for a single system. This report explores advanced systems engineering modeling approaches to model the interactions between digital assets across multiple systems which may be targeted by cyber adversaries. The complex and interdependent design of digital systems has the potential to introduce emergent cyber properties that are generally not covered by hazard analyses nor formal nuclear Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The R&D and supporting analysis presented here explores approaches to predict and manage how interdependent system properties effect risk. To show the potential impact of a successful cyber-attack to formal PRA event tree probabilities, HAZCADS analysis was also used. HAZCADS was also used to model the automatic depressurization system (ADS) automatic actuation. This analysis extended to an integrated system analysis for common-cause failure (CCF). In this aspect, the HAZCADS analysis continued by analyzing plant design details for system connectivity in support of critical plant functions. A dependency matrix was developed to depict the integrated functionality of the interconnected systems. Areas of potential CCF are indicated. Future work could include adversary attack development to show how CCF could be caused, resulting in PRA events. Across the multiple systems that comprise the ECCS, the analysis shows that the change in such probabilities was very different between systems. This indicates that some systems have a larger potential risk impact from successful cyber-attack or digital failure, which indicates a need for these systems to have a higher priority for design and defensive measures. Furthermore, we were able to establish that a risk analysis using any arbitrary threat model establishes an ordering of components with regard to cyber-risk. This ordering can be used to influence the overall system design with an eye to lowering risk, or as a way to understand real-time risk to operational systems based on a current threat landscape. Expert knowledge of both the analysis process and the system being analyzed is required to perform a HAZCADS analysis. The need for a tiered risk analysis is demonstrated by the results of this report.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Rare-event Simulation for Stochastic Korteweg-de Vries Equation

An asymptotic analysis of the tail probabilities for the dynamics of a soliton wave $U(x,t)$ under a stochastic time-dependent force is developed. The dynamics of the soliton wave $U(x,t)$ is described by the Korteweg-de Vries Equation with homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions under a stochastic time-dependent force, which is modeled as a time-dependent Gaussian noise with amplitude $\epsilon$. The tail probability we considered is $w(b) :=P(\sup_{t\in [0,T]} U(x,t) > b ),$ as $b\rightarrow \infty,$ for some constant $T>0$ and a fixed $x$, which can be interpreted as tail probability of the amplitude of water wave on shallow surface of a fluid or long internal wave in a density-stratified ocean. Our goal is to characterize the asymptotic behaviors of $w(b)$ and to evaluate the tail probability of the event that the soliton wave exceeds a certain threshold value under a random force term. Such rare-event calculation of $w(b)$ is very useful for fast estimation of the risk of the potential damage that could caused by the water wave in a density-stratified ocean modeled by the stochastic KdV equation. In this work, the asymptotic approximation of the probability that the soliton wave exceeds a high-level $b$ is derived. In addition, we develop a provably efficient rare-event simulation algorithm to compute $w(b)$. The efficiency of the algorithm only requires mild conditions and therefore it is applicable to a general class of Gaussian processes and many diverse applications.

Xu, Gongjun↗
DOE OSTI2015

Incorporating realistic conservatism into criticality alarm placement and emergency response: a regulatory perspective - 14425

Review of historical process plant criticality accidents shows that their consequences vary widely and are extremely difficult to predict accurately. Because of the wide variability and inherent uncertainty in estimating consequences, criticality detector placement analysis and consequence estimation for emergency response typically utilize very conservative assumptions with regard to the total fissions, time-dependent fission rate, and intervening shielding. For detector placement, a 'minimum accident of concern' is typically defined, whereas emergency consequence evaluations typically define a maximum fission source term. These require different mindsets because what is conservative for one type of analysis may be non-conservative for the other. While some conservatism is commonly practiced in both cases, excessive conservatism can result in a net increase in risk, such as resulting from inadvertent alarm activations, that can be costly to operations and counterproductive to safety. Conversely, reliance on very detailed calculational models to reduce conservatism could increase the number and complexity of controls, such as shielding for dose mitigation. Deterministic regulatory criteria have also been applied for determining where criticality detectors are to be deployed and what areas must be evacuated in the event of an accident. This paper explores several issues associated with criticality alarm placement and emergency response from a regulatory perspective. This paper will discuss insights gained from historical fuel facility accidents and significant events regarding the inherent risk of criticality, the most likely locations for criticality to occur, and the most probable characteristics of a critical excursion. This will include discussion of the previously disputed relevance of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (USNRC's) longstanding model for a critical excursion. While USNRC regulations deterministically require dual alarm coverage in all areas having greater than a 'critical mass' of fissionable material, a process is provided to grant exemptions when a risk-informed argument is technically justified. Similar risk-informed considerations have been used to justify compensatory measures allowing limited operation during periods of alarm system outage due to component failure or maintenance. This paper will explore the application of risk information and performance history to address requirements for criticality alarm system coverage, granting exemptions from deterministic criteria, allowing compensatory measures during system outages, determining evacuation areas and routes, and assessing the significance associated with alarm system issues. Finally, the impact of shielding on the USNRC's regulatory risk basis and approved subcritical margin will be reviewed. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Methods for Cyclical and Coupled Systems with Changing Failure Rates

Advancements in nuclear system designs with automated control features provide many benefits, but can lead to complex coupled systems and dynamic failure scenarios. This is especially true for microreactor designs where components are not expected to be replaced during the reactor’s lifetime. Hence, the life of the system, in addition to the safety, needs to be evaluated. Modeling these sequences of time-dependent events requires addressing cyclical processes and changing failure rates in ways that represent the actual system dynamics in contrast to a single sampling for a component’s time to failure. This research presents two distinct analytical methods for several failure distributions that evaluate a final time to failure used for different scenarios where the time to failure must be sampled multiple times. The first method is used when evaluating a component whose failure rate increases due to an outside event after the initial sampling but before the initially sampled time to failure. The second method is used when evaluating multiple identical components or a component that has been replaced with a new identical version before the second sampling. The two methods were implemented in a few representative case studies developed in the dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams. Overall, this paper provides guidelines on how these approaches give a more realistic and accurate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of complex systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗