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Risk Reduction Project in Pad Abort-1 Launch Vehicle Loads & Dynamics

The Pad Abort (PA-1) system includes the Launch Abort System (LAS) and the Command Module (CM). The PA-1 abort flight test will launch from the White Sands Missile Range. Prior to the ignition, the vehicle will be resting, without restraints, on a short support structure. The Launch Abort Motor will ignite and burn for less than 5 seconds before a 20 second coast. Then the LAS will separate from the CM and the CM will descend via parachute to a soil landing. The static firing of the Abort Motor (ST-1) for PA-1 Launch Vehicle resulted in unexpected higher levels that superseded the environment predictions and all the design and test loads of all subassemblies and components. A rapid project was put in place to develop the flight environments, loads and associated uncertainties for the Verification Load Cycle (VLC) of PA-1. An acoustic test and shaker test of the CM were planned and executed in support of the developments of damping and transfer functions. Instead of using the traditional structure-borne envelops, the actual ST-1 pressures and forces were used to develop the internal accelerations. The PA-1 motor was cooled to 60 Deg F using thermal conditioning to reduce the thrust profile. The plumes of the abort motor were studied to determine if the airborne environments would be reduced. The combination of all items, noted above, allowed a reduction in loads for VLC.

Sasan C Armand

NASA Agile Community of Practice 2024-2026 Report

This 2024-2026 report provides a summary of the products and activities executed by the NASA Agile Community of Practice (CoP) during its second and third years. Building on the foundation established in its inaugural year, the CoP continued to advance Agile values and principles across NASA centers. The report highlights key initiatives, including specialized framework training, AI integration in Agile toolkits, and active participation in agency-wide project management and systems engineering workshops.

Agile

PROBABALISTIC RISK ANALYSIS AND THERMAL MARGIN PROCESS FOR AN INFLATABLE AEROSHELL

Atmospheric entry vehicle thermal protection systems (TPS) are margined due to the uncertainties that exist in entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of the materials and structures. Traditional approaches typically over-margin TPS and offer very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight. A probabilistic margin process can be used to apply thermal margin to an aeroshell based on a rigorously calculated risk of failure. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory modifications, and risk trades while preventing excessive margin from being applied. This methodology can also be applied to other TPS applications, hot structures, and other engineering disciplines.

Steven A Tobin

Risks of Depress as a Fire Suppression Technique in Spacecraft

Spacecraft are designed to prevent fires through careful material selection and configuration control combined with electrical design controls and isolation of ignition sources. Despite these best efforts, fire risk still exists due to the potential for configuration changes with the introduction of crew and the potential for a ‘failure of imagination’ by designers in anticipating all fuel and ignition sources. Therefore, fire suppression is a critical capability for any crewed spacecraft as a last resort for crew survival. Many spacecraft suppression methods have relied on fire suppressants such as compressed carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and water. A proposed alternative is depressurization of the cabin as a method to extinguish a fire. Limited testing was conducted during Skylab and showed that depress could result in stirring the air flow and aggravating a fire before extinguishing. However, limited information was available on how the test was conducted. To better characterize the approach, testing was conducted at NASA’s White Sands Test Facility to evaluate the effect of depressurization on material extinguishment. The results showed that depressurization does not provide a safe and effective fire suppression capability. The testing approach, results, and conclusions are described and discussed.

Toni Griego

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning

Chapter 12 - Flight Envelope

The term "flight envelope" is used to refer to the boundaries of aircraft loading and flight conditions within which operation of the aircraft is satisfactory, and beyond which some aspect becomes unacceptable. This flight envelope represents, in fact, the limiting conditions arising from a matrix of inter-related flight envelopes covering the appropriate variables. Thus, for each loading (i.e., external stores configuration and its associated range of weight and center of gravity (c.g.) position) and aircraft configuration (i.e., position of undercarriage (u/c), flaps, slats, etc.), the envelopes of airspeed versus altitude, airspeed versus load factor, angle of attack versus angle of sideslip, etc., must be investigated to establish the limits within which all aspects such as handling qualities, engine behavior, structural loads, etc., remain acceptable. Flight testing of new or derivative aircraft models is carried out with the initial purpose of defining a flight envelope which is, first and foremost, safe and secondarily, which enables the effective use of the vehicle for its intended purpose. Flight testing occurs only after numerous reviews of the design and review of results from ground tests and predictions of flight characteristics in such areas as structures, aerodynamics, stability and control, flight controls (particularly fly-by-wire control systems, propulsion, etc.). Accordingly, opening and expanding the envelope is a task that must be approached cautiously, systematically, and with coordination and cooperation of the many disciplines involved in the design and test of an airplane. (Sections 8 and 10 cover test planning and safety of flight considerations, respectively). The fundamental tenet in establishing a flight envelope via flight test is risk reduction. This is reflected in the typical sequence of events leading to initial flight test - design reviews (both hardware and software), then ground test involving singular disciplines (windtunnel tests for aerodynamics, structurally loading the wing/fuselage/nacelle on a ground test article with loads anticipated to occur in flight, flight control system control law checkout, propulsion test cell runs and/or flying test bed tests, etc.), and then ground tests involving multi-disciplines (See Section 9). Only after these have been accomplished will an initial, limited, low-risk, flight envelope be established. The limited envelope will typically be in the middle of the projected final flight envelope. Subsequent flight tests will then be devoted to expanding the initial envelope by operating the airplane at increasing ranges - representing increasing risk - of engine operation, airspeeds both fast and slow, altitude, load factor both above and below 1g, centers of gravity (fore and aft), and with system/subsystem failures. Whether flight tests are to define a flight envelope on a new model airplane with the attendant new airframe, new engine(s), and new subsystems (hydraulics, pressurization, etc.), or on an airplane involving only a few of these areas such as new engines in an old airframe, the fundamental approach to establishing an envelope is the same.

H Walgemoed

Cost reductions in nickel-hydrogen battery

Significant progress was made toward the development of a commercially marketable hydrogen nickel oxide battery. The costs projected for this battery are remarkably low when one considers where the learning curve is for commercialization of this system. Further developmental efforts on this project are warranted as the H2/NiO battery is already cost competitive with other battery systems.

Beauchamp, Richard L.

Mechanical Properties of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Composites Exposed to Cryogenic Conditions and Space Radiation via Simulation and Testing

As NASA missions extend beyond low Earth orbit, increasing reliance is placed on carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites for spacecraft structures where mass efficiency, durability, and long-term reliability are critical. In service, these materials are subjected to a combination of ultraviolet radiation, vacuum, ionizing radiation, atomic oxygen, and extreme thermal excursions under sustained mechanical loading. Flight systems such as the Boeing Starliner and SpaceX Dragon employ external composite structures that will experience these environments for extended durations. Although prior spaceflight and ground studies have reported limited changes in bulk mechanical properties, the synergistic effects of these environments on composite microstructure, particularly at the fiber matrix interphase, remain insufficiently characterized and represent a potential qualification and reliability risk. This study investigates the effects of short-term cryogenic exposure on a radiation shielding carbon epoxy composite, SC2020, as a ground-based analog for space relevant thermal extremes. The SC2020 material system has previously flown on the International Space Station under the Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) program. Composite specimens were exposed to liquid nitrogen for 6 and 24 hours and evaluated using a multiscale characterization framework that combined ASTM D3039 tensile testing, Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) based interphase analysis, and helium gas permeability measurements. Tensile testing showed no statistically significant or permanent degradation in global strength or modulus following cryogenic exposure. In contrast, AFM measurements revealed reductions in interphase modulus, weakened adhesion, and increased nanoscale heterogeneity, indicating localized degradation mechanisms not captured by conventional bulk testing. Gas permeability measurements showed a progressive increase in helium diffusion with exposure duration, consistent with micro-void formation or partial interfacial debonding. The results indicate that cryogenic exposure initiates degradation at the fiber matrix interphase while leaving global mechanical properties largely unchanged over short durations. These findings underscore the importance of multiscale diagnostics for identifying early-stage damage mechanisms that may influence long term performance and qualification margins for spaceflight composite structures. The data presented establish a cryogenic baseline for comparison with forthcoming MISSE flight exposure results and support ongoing NASA Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) efforts aimed at improving composite qualification methodologies, risk assessment, and reliability prediction for space environments.

composite reliability

Using Open Innovation in Reducing Risk to Crews

In the exploration of destinations outside of Earth's neighborhood, specifically Mars, scientific and engineering inquiries have occurred by two means; observations from satellites and observations by landed spacecraft. Satellite observations (Mariner, MRO, Mars Odyssey, provide global-scale spatial and temporal data while landed spacecraft (Viking, Mars Pathfinder, Spirit, Opportunity, Phoenix Mars Lander) investigate highly localized areas of the surface of the planet. In preparation for human exploration, extensive knowledge of the surface and atmospheric environments should be known before the first human leaves Earth. The primary goal of performing reconnaissance on Mars on a sub-global scale is to know as much as possible about the environment to which crews will be subjected. At the current rate of launching and landing probes to Mars, it will take a very long time to understand the surface and atmospheric conditions associated with the regions where prospective crews may land. Meanwhile electronics and electrical systems are rapidly getting smaller. One can argue that to acquire the knowledge of the region, one must take hundreds, maybe thousands of measurements simultaneously. One means to perform such a task is to deploy a swarm of sensors. Such a swarm would perform an in-situ assessment of the region. Imagine a close flyby mission to Mars for example, where mini- to micro-sensors are deposited into the atmosphere over half an orbit or more. The sensors, captured by the atmospheric drag and Martian gravity slowly descend buffeted about by Martian winds and weather until they settle on the surface a great time later (think of how long dust takes to settle). As they descend they communicate a vast array of data; temperature, chemistry, pressure, radiation dose, electric or magnetic properties from a region of the planet and an individual sensor need not measure the same quantity as its neighbors. Initially, they could move at the whim of the environment but later versions could have locomotion or propulsion mechanisms. Humans wouldn't need to decide where the sensors go, the sensors do that for themselves. This is a key strength of a sensor swarm. The intelligence relies on the group not on a decision maker on earth. Real time sensor inputs direct what the swarm considers most interesting to investigate resulting in emergent behavior. We issued a $20,000 challenge to the global innovators to provide solutions as to how such a swarm could be initialized and by what protocols and methodologies by which they operate. Over 400 innovators from 49 countries took a look at the problem, with three receiving partial awards for solutions.

Mel Ferebee

Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) Capability Maturity Levels for Ecosystems Enabling Digital Transformation

Digital engineering (DE) and integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) are widely recognized as critical enablers of faster, more affordable, and more reliable aerospace systems. However, many organizations have struggled to realize the promised return on investment (ROI) from digital initiatives. A primary reason is the absence of a shared, decision-focused framework that distinguishes simple digitization of existing workflows from true digital transformation that fundamentally changes how engineering decisions are made. This paper introduces an ICME capability maturity framework that fills this gap. The framework defines six cumulative ICME capability maturity levels (CMLs), explicitly tied to decision authority, engineering integration, optimization, and uncertainty management across material, process, structure, and performance scales. It is designed to complement established readiness metrics such as technology readiness levels (TRLs), manufacturing readiness levels (MRLs), and integration readiness levels (IRLs), by addressing a missing dimension: the conditions required for model-informed decision authority across scales. A unifying figure and capability table illustrate the six-level ICME Capability Maturity Framework, showing how organizations progress from digitization—with limited or negative ROI—to true digital transformation, where ICME-enabled workflows deliver measurable improvements in decision quality, cycle time, risk reduction, and reuse. The framework is intended for both technical practitioners and executive leadership, providing a common language to assess current state, guide roadmaps, align software ecosystem investments, and set realistic expectations for digital transformation outcomes. A regulatory-relevant statement clarifying the relationship between ICME capability and existing certification frameworks is provided.

ICME

Hot Water, Cold Reality: Experimental Analysis of Sorption Constraints in Iodine Filtration Media Under Heated-Water Conditions

Iodine has been widely employed as a residual biocide in potable water applications during crewed missions. Unlike other biocides, it is essential to remove iodine from drinking water prior to consumption, as its biocidal concentration raises health concerns. Consequently, effectively removing iodine species from water is a critical step in potable water processing. Although the non-biocided heated leg has not violated microbial specifications on the International Space Station, any wetted volume lacking biocide presents potential risks for long‑duration exploration missions and for systems that are sensitive to microbial growth/contamination. Recent assessments indicate, however, that iodine‑removal performance may degrade under elevated temperature conditions, such as those required for dispensing hot water for food preparation. This reduction in efficacy appears to stem from both the potential physical degradation of filtration media and the temperature‑dependent behavior of adsorption processes. To investigate the influence of water temperature on the efficacy of filtration media for iodine removal, a series of adsorption capacity tests were conducted at both room temperature and elevated temperatures (90 °C). These experiments aimed to benchmark the performance of the adsorbents that constitute the ACTEX filter in the ISS’s potable water dispenser. The findings of this study provide critical insights into the iodine filtration process, verify the potential performance shortfall under elevated temperature conditions, and establish the basis for defining new absorbent requirements to ensure reliable iodine removal in future mission architectures.

drinking water

Hot Water, Cold Reality: Experimental Analysis of Sorption Constraints in Iodine Filtration Media Under Heated-Water Conditions

Iodine has been widely employed as a residual biocide in potable water applications during crewed missions. Unlike other biocides, it is essential to remove iodine from drinking water prior to consumption, as its biocidal concentration raises health concerns. Consequently, effectively removing iodine species from water is a critical step in potable water processing. Although the non-biocided heated leg has not violated microbial specifications on the International Space Station, any wetted volume lacking biocide presents potential risks for long‑duration exploration missions and for systems that are sensitive to microbial growth/contamination. Recent assessments indicate, however, that iodine‑removal performance may degrade under elevated temperature conditions, such as those required for dispensing hot water for food preparation. This reduction in efficacy appears to stem from both the potential physical degradation of filtration media and the temperature‑dependent behavior of adsorption processes. To investigate the influence of water temperature on the efficacy of filtration media for iodine removal, a series of adsorption capacity tests were conducted at both room temperature and elevated temperatures (90 °C). These experiments aimed to benchmark the performance of the adsorbents that constitute the ACTEX filter in the ISS’s potable water dispenser. The findings of this study provide critical insights into the iodine filtration process, verify the potential performance shortfall under elevated temperature conditions, and establish the basis for defining new absorbent requirements to ensure reliable iodine removal in future mission architectures.

iodine

Technology Readiness Assessment for Stirling Power Convertor

Stirling-based power conversion system could represent a critical enabling technology for future NASA missions, offering significantly enhanced power efficiency over traditional thermoelectric systems. To ensure the successful infusion of this technology into deep space and planetary surface missions, a rigorous evaluation of its maturity and associated risks is essential. The objective of this Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) is to determine the current technology readiness level (TRL) of the Stirling power convertor and identify key technical risks and challenges associated with its maturation and potential infusion into a targeted flight system. The evaluation process will rigorously follow the NASA TRA procedure: (1) determining the requirements that underpin the design, function, and performance; (2) finding and listing all new technology elements (NTEs) and critical technology elements (CTEs); (3) identifying the level of integration assumed for the assessment; and (4) assessing the TRL for each NTE and CTE. The overall subassembly TRL will then be determined via a roll-up using the “weakest link” criterion, culminating in a final (5) assessment of risks to further progression of maturity. This paper will present the results of a comprehensive technology readiness assessment (TRA) conducted on the Stirling-based dynamic power conversion subassembly, excluding the radioisotope heat source. The paper will also describe a detailed breakdown of the TRL roll-up and a matrix of identified risks and recommended mitigation paths, along with identified key technical risks and challenges to achieve the required long-duration performance. Key Words: Radioisotope Power Conversion, Technology Readiness Assessment

Radioisotope Power Conversion

Thermal Data-driven Model Reduction for Enhanced Battery Health Monitoring

Electric aviation faces a major challenge of avoiding potentially catastrophic consequences of the battery’s thermal runaway while keeping the weight of the battery low. Detection of early warning signals of battery failures requires accurate monitoring of the battery’s health throughout its lifespan. However, identifying the parameters of the battery from field data is notoriously difficult. We investigate this problem within the framework of modeling the temperature dynamics of a Li-ion cell during tests simulating loading in electric aircraft flights. It is found that the parameters of a higher-fidelity physics-based thermal model cannot be identified from the simulated flight data. To resolve this issue, we reduce the higher-fidelity thermal model to a model with fewer parameters. The resulting reduced-order model can predict temperature dynamics accurately and is identifiable throughout the cell’s lifespan which allows using the model’s parameters to monitor the state-of-health of the aging cell and detect anomalies in thermal behavior.

Li ion batteries