A deep-learning approach to predict river temperature in Alaska
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Chang, Shuyu↗
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Enhanced flood synchrony and downstream severity in the Delaware River under rising temperatures
River floods threaten life and economic stability, with risks increasing globally, especially in densely populated coastal areas. In mountainous coastal watersheds like the Delaware River Basin, rising temperature is projected to reduce snowpack, reshaping upstream–downstream flood dynamics. However, the impact on flood synchronization between upland tributaries and estuarine mainstems remains poorly understood. Using multidecadal streamflow simulations from a high-resolution hydrological model, we find significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of synchronized floods under future warming scenarios, particularly severe floods (above the 75 th percentile). Under higher warming scenarios, snowpack and rain-on-snow floods in headwater subbasins nearly vanish. Surprisingly, this regime shift amplifies estuarine flooding by enhancing synchronization between historically snow-dominated subbasins and their downstream counterparts. Despite intensified synchronization and flood magnitude, cold-season flood risk declines due to fewer rain-on-snow events. Conversely, summer floods grow larger, more frequent, and synchronized, driving a seasonal reconfiguration of flood risk that should be considered in future mitigation strategies.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Deep Learning Advances Arctic River Water Temperature Predictions
The accelerated warming in the Arctic poses serious risks to freshwater ecosystems by altering streamflow and river thermal regimes. However, limited research on Arctic River water temperatures exists due to data scarcity and the absence of robust methodologies, which often focus on large, major river basins. To address this, we leveraged the newly released, extensive AKTEMP data set and advanced machine learning techniques to develop a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. By incorporating ERA5-Land reanalysis data and integrating physical understanding into data-driven processes, our model advanced river water temperature predictions in ungauged, snow- and permafrost-affected basins in Alaska. Our model outperformed existing approaches in high-latitude regions, achieving a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.95 and root mean squared error of 1.0°C. The LSTM model learned air temperature, soil temperature, solar radiation, and thermal radiation—factors associated with energy balance—were the most important drivers of river temperature dynamics. Soil moisture and snow water equivalent were highlighted as critical factors representing key processes such as thawing, melting, and groundwater contributions. Glaciers and permafrost were also identified as important covariates, particularly in seasonal river water temperature predictions. Our LSTM model successfully captured the complex relationships between hydrometeorological factors and river water temperatures across varying timescales and hydrological conditions. This scalable and transferable approach can be potentially applied across the Arctic, offering valuable insights for future conservation and management efforts.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Deep Learning Advances Arctic River Water Temperature Predictions
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Shuyu Y. Chang↗
Kankakee River Water Resources: Monitoring Temperature and Vegetation to Detect River Flow Impediments at Energy Intake Structures
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Marisa Smedsrud↗
Kankakee River Water Resources: Monitoring Temperature and Vegetation to Detect River Flow Impediments at Energy Intake Structures
The goal of this tutorial is to provide a comprehensive and accessible guide for detecting aquatic vegetation within the Kankakee River using Earth Observation data as well as pairing these observations with environmental trends monitoring. By offering step-by-step instructions and insights into the latest remote sensing technologies, this tutorial aims to equip readers with the knowledge and tools necessary to identify and track aquatic vegetation within a river extent of their choice.
Marisa Smedsrud↗
Gas Supersaturation May Reduce the Survival of Yearling Chinook Salmon in the Lower Columbia River and Ocean Plume
Unusually high flows in the Columbia River in 2011 raised total dissolved gas (TDG) levels in the river above the 120 percent legal limit imposed to prevent harmful impacts to aquatic organisms. This provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the effect on smolt survival. In-river (IR) migrating juvenile yearling Chinook released at Bonneville Dam with acoustic tags during periods when TDG exceeded 120 percent received estimated maximum exposures of 134 TDG. Subsequent daily survival rates in the lower river and plume were reduced by 0.06 per day (SE equals 0.01) and 0.15 per day (SE equals 0.05) relative to IR migrant fish released when TDG was less than 120 percent. Transported smolts (T) released 10-13 kilometers below Bonneville Dam had lower maximum exposure levels (126 percent) and experienced no difference in daily survival rates relative to unexposed smolts. River temperature levels and trends in turbidity and disease prevalence between releases of high and low exposure smolts were not consistent with the observed effects on survival rates. We conclude that smolts may suffer from chronic effects of elevated TDG exposure while migrating through the Columbia River and plume. Consideration should be given to measuring these survival losses in an explicit experimental framework that isolates possible confounding factors.
survival↗
Groundwater and river water elevations and temperature from 2017 to 2022 across Meander Z in the East River Watershed, Colorado
This dataset includes groundwater and river water elevations and temperature data collected in the East River watershed located in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The data were collected in order to investigate the coupling between hydrology and biogeochemical processes in the floodplain. Data was collected at ten groundwater locations in Meander Z (MZ), located just upstream of the confluence with Brush Creek and two river locations directly adjacent to Meander Z from 2017-2019. From 2019-2022, data was collected at five groundwater locations in Meander Z. Note that location names, not location identifiers (IDs), are used in the related publication Dewey et al. (2022). Both location IDs and names are included in data files. Files in this dataset include the main data files for each location zipped into a single folder (waterlevel_data.zip), an installation methods file describing sensor installation (InstallationMethods.csv), a file containing field metadata including GPS (Global Positioning System) coordinates and ground surface elevations (transducers_locations.csv). This dataset also includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type. This dataset conforms to the ESS-DIVE hydrological reporting format. 2026-04-27 Update: The river water elevation data files (ER-MZR1.csv and ER-MZR2.csv) were corrected. The data for these two locations were inadvertently swapped in the original published data. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Riverbank temperatures on the Selawik River, Alaska 2010-2012, and Koyukuk River, Alaska June to July 2018.
The data package includes temperature measurements from riverbanks along the Selawik and Koyukuk Rivers in northwest Alaska. The Selawik River data also includes meteorological data collected locally and the Koyukuk River includes bulk density and ice content data from the riverbanks. The Selawik River data was collected between 2010 and 2013 with meteorological data collected for the entire time period and riverbank temperatures collected in shorter time intervals between 2010 to 2012. All of the Selawik River data were collected a single river bend. The Koyukuk River temperature data was collected from late June to early July 2018 at a total of five locations on three riverbanks. Ice content measurements on the Koyukuk were made at five riverbank locations. The data collection on both rivers was done in support of studies on the influence of permafrost on riverbank erosion. The temperature data was collected to monitor the thermal conditions of the river banks both seasonally and during periods of erosion. The ice content of the banks was measured to better understand how bank erosion rates are influenced by ice in the frozen riverbanks.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Warming of the lower Columbia River , 1853 to 2018
Abstract Water temperature is a critical ecological indicator; however, few studies have statistically modeled century‐scale trends in riverine or estuarine water temperature, or their cause. Here, we recover, digitize, and analyze archival temperature measurements from the 1850s onward to investigate how and why water temperatures in the lower Columbia River are changing. To infill data gaps and explore changes, we develop regression models of daily historical Columbia River water temperature using time‐lagged river flow and air temperature as the independent variables. Models were developed for three time periods (mid‐19th, mid‐20th, and early 21st century), using archival and modern measurements (1854–1876; 1938–present). Daily and monthly averaged root‐mean‐square errors overall are 0.89°C and 0.77°C, respectively for the 1938–2018 period. Results suggest that annual averaged water temperature increased by 2.2°C ± 0.2°C since the 1850s, a rate of 1.3°C ± 0.1°C/century. Increased water temperatures are seasonally dependent. An increase of approximately 2.0°C ± 0.2°C/century occurs in the July–Dec time‐frame, while springtime trends are statistically insignificant. Rising temperatures change the probability of exceeding ecologically important thresholds; since the 1850s, the number of days with water temperatures over 20°C increased from ~5 to 60 per year, while the number below 2°C decreased from ~10 to 0 days/per year. Overall, the modern system is warmer, but exhibits less temperature variability. The reservoir system reduces sensitivity to short‐term atmospheric forcing. Statistical experiments within our modeling framework suggest that increased water temperature is driven by warming air temperatures (~29%), altered river flow (~14%), and water resources management (~57%).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Data and Scripts Associated with the Manuscript “Water Column Respiration in the Yakima River Basin is Explained by Temperature, Nutrients and Suspended Solids”
This data package is associated with the publication “Water Column Respiration in the Yakima River Basin is Explained by Temperature, Nutrients and Suspended Solids” published in EGU Biogeochemistry (Laan et al. 2025). In this research, water column respiration (ERwc) data, surface water chemistry data, organic matter (OM) chemistry data, and publicly available geospatial data were used in analysis to evaluate the variability in ERwc at 47 sites across the Yakima River basin in Washington, USA. In addition to this readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. The data package includes the data inputs, and outputs, and R scripts to reproduce all the analyses performed in the manuscript and create manuscript figures. The data package is comprised of three main folders (Code, Data, and Figures). The Code folder is comprised of four scripts and three analysis-specific subfolders that contain the R scripts to perform the analyses described in the publication and create publication figures. The Data folder is comprised of two “.csv” files and four subfolders that contain data input and output files. The Published_Data folder contains a readme that directs the user to download the appropriate files and add to this folder when using scripts. The Figures folder includes figures from the manuscript in “.pdf” and “.png” formats and a folder with intermediate figure files. This data package is associated with a GitHub repository which can be found at https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/rcsfa-RC2-SPS-ERwc. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected some of these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Water Column Respiration in the Yakima River Basin is Explained by Temperature, Nutrients and Suspended Solids
Understanding aquatic ecosystem metabolism involves the study of two key processes: carbon fixation via primary production and organic C mineralization as total ecosystem respiration (ERtot). In streams and rivers, ERtot includes respiration in the water column (ERwc) and in the sediments (ERsed). While literature surveys suggest that ERsed is often a dominant contributor to ERtot, recent studies indicate that the relative influence of sediment-associated processes versus water column processes can fluctuate along the river continuum. Still, a comprehensive understanding of the factors contributing to these shifts within basins and across stream orders is needed. Here we contribute to this need by measuring ERwc and collecting water samples across 47 sites in the Yakima River basin, Washington, USA. We found that ERwc rates varied throughout the basin during baseflow conditions, ranging from –7.38 to 0.36 g O2 m?3 d?1, and encompassed the range of ERwc literature values. Additionally, by comparing to ERtot estimates for rivers across the contiguous United States, we suggest that the contribution of ERwc rates to reach-scale ERtot rates across the Yakima River was likely highly variable, but we did not test this directly. We observed that temperature, nutrient concentrations (dissolved organic carbon, total dissolved nitrogen), and total suspended solids explained 41% of ERwc variability across the basin. Our findings highlight the potential relevance of water column processes in aquatic ecosystem metabolism, with the Yakima River basin serving as an environmentally diverse river network representative of the larger Columbia River basin that spans much of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. Our results are generally congruent with previous work, suggesting that the observed variability and suite of associated environmental factors influencing ERwc are potentially transferable across basins.
Laan, Maggi M.↗
Advancing stream temperature prediction with a generalizable large-sample framework across CONUS river reaches
Accurately predicting stream temperature in ungauged basins remains a critical challenge for water resource management, thermoelectric power plant cooling, and ecosystem conservation. Large-sample machine learning models trained on hundreds of well-monitored river basins have shown remarkable performance; however, such models have yet to be developed solely using forcing data that can be readily extracted to simulate stream temperatures anywhere in the contiguous United States (CONUS). In this study, we present a scalable, large-sample deep learning framework using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to simulate daily stream temperatures in ungauged basins across the CONUS. The framework leverages both modeled reanalysis of meteorological and streamflow inputs as well as static attributes available for all 2.7 million CONUS river reaches in the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlusV2). By generating dynamical inputs from predefined thermally relevant upstream contributing areas, rather than the entire upstream basin, the model also offers improvements in very large basins where full-basin averaging can dilute the most important influences on stream temperature. Evaluated across 300 basins, the model achieves a median Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.1 °C and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.95 on temporally and spatially distinct test folds—comparable to models trained exclusively using meteorological and streamflow observational data. The flexible, high-performing framework generalizes to any unmonitored river reach without significant regulation or unnatural thermal input immediately upstream, substantially expanding predictive capabilities in data-scarce regions.
Hydrology↗
Stream Temperature Responses to Summer Urban Rain Events Along the Savannah River
The hydrological urban heat island (HUHI) is a recent facet of the urban heat island (UHI), describing thermal enhancement of bodies of water in response to urbanization. Although the forefront of this work has been studied for large Metropolitan areas, this effect on developing cities is currently unknown. To locally measure and quantify HUHI effects in a developing city, we utilized Multi-Radar Multi Sensor (MRMS) radar-derived rainfall data to estimate rainfall in the Augusta Metropolitan Area (AMA) and the Savannah Metropolitan Area (SMA), two developing communities adjacent to the Savannah River. We analyzed mean temperature trends of two stream gauges measuring temperature at, and downstream of the central AMA and the SMA. Results show overall peak stream temperatures within AMA are reached within a 2hr timeframe with surge temperatures between 1-2 K, perhaps assisted by the presence of the Augusta Shoals further upstream. The SMA appears to have little HUHI effects due to urban greening and impacts to coastal meteorology. It is suggested that Moderate rainfall events (10-25mm of rainfall) have a significant correlation (~0.1 correlation coefficient with a significance level of 0.05) between stream temperature and rainfall, indicating potential warmer runoff input into the Savannah River. Although results seem promising, further research into moderate rainfall events are needed to determine the extent of the HUHI for AMA.
Wermter, Joseph E. [Savannah River National Labora↗
Observations of Subduction, Downward Heat Flux and Dense Filament Collapse in the Northern Gulf of Mexico
Submesoscale processes are important contributors to the global heat budget and generally support upward heat transport through restratification. However, in salinity‐stratified regions, such as the northern Gulf of Mexico with its influx of freshwater from the Mississippi‐Atchafalaya river system, temperature can act like a passive tracer and submesoscale processes can contribute to downward heat transport. Oceanic heat content is a factor in many environmental risks the region faces, for example, hurricane intensification, and marine heatwaves. During the 2022 field campaign of the Submesoscales Under Near‐Resonant Inertial Shear Experiment, a sampling plan was developed to study such submesoscale processes in high resolution. Over 31 hr, four assets (two research ships and two remotely controlled boats) drove in parallel across a dense filament, capturing its evolution in time and space. The observations show that surface waters, warmed by daytime solar radiation, were subducted and that the associated overturning circulation transported heat below the surface layer where it was later irreversibly mixed away. The estimated downward heat flux was as strong as the concurrent net air‐sea heat flux into the ocean. The filament was then observed to rapidly collapse which we attribute to boundary layer turbulence and the breakdown of geostrophic balance. The collapsing fronts display behaviors indicative of gravity currents. These observations highlight how in salinity‐stratified regions, frontal dynamics can be associated with downward heat flux and how the submesoscale can play an important role in the oceanic heat budget.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Sea, ice and surface water circulation, Alaskan continental shelf
The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery has been extremely useful in understanding the tidal water movements in a large estuary such as Cook Inlet. As more imagery obtained during various tidal stages become available it appears that complex and fast changing micro-circulation patterns develop in various regions of Cook Inlet during each advancing and receding tide. More ERTS-1 synoptic imagery is needed to fully understand the effect of the approach of tidal front on the water movements in the various regions through the estuary. The conventional onboard ship data gathered during various cruises although revealed the overall circulation pattern in Cook Inlet but failed to show micro-subgyres which develop in various regions during each tide which are discernible on ther ERTS-1 imagery. Suspended load distribution in the Bering Sea during summer varies significantly. In areas of phytoplankton bloom and at the river mouths the suspended load is higher than the 1 mg/1 which is found over most areas. The influence of major rivers on temperature, salinity, and suspended load in surface water as well as at shallow depth is apparent. On the Bering shelf a strong pycnocline generally at depth 10-20 m is formed by surface fresh water flow which retains sediment in suspension over extended periods.
Sharma, G. D.↗
Kankakee Water Resources: Monitoring Temperature and Vegetation to Detect River Flow Impediments at Energy Intake Structures
In recent years, unpredictable grassing events have occurred at the Dresden Generating Station, located on the Kankakee River in northern Illinois. Grassing events are characterized by large mats of aquatic vegetation that accumulate downstream, resulting in the clogging of water intake structures and leading to major disruptions in power generation. Currently, employees at the Dresden Generating Station are responsible for reactively responding to each grassing event individually. This project, in partnership with Constellation Nuclear and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), assessed the feasibility of using Earth observations (Landsat 9 OLI-2, Landsat 8 OLI, Sentinel-2 MSI, DOVE PlanetScope, WorldView-3, and GPM IMERG) to detect floating aquatic vegetation within the Kankakee River and identify predictive factors that trigger grassing events, as doing so will provide the Dresden Generating Station the ability to anticipate future grassing events and enhance general hydrologic modeling efforts held by the USGS. The results of this study illustrated that, while aquatic vegetation can be detected by satellites with up to moderate spatial resolution (30 m), temporal resolution is a major limiting factor for tracking movements in floating aquatic vegetation and identifying predictive measures for these events. In addition, correlation results suggest a possible negative relationship between grassing events and river discharge (-0.875 correlation coefficient). In the future, pairing these results with ground control surveys and sensors with higher temporal capabilities would allow our project partners to predict and proactively address future grassing events, ensuring the reliable operation of the Dresden Generating Station.
Marisa Smedsrud↗
Snowpack Contributions and Temperature Characterization of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the Western Cordillera of the United States
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J. Michelle Hu↗