Deep Learning Advances Arctic River Water Temperature Predictions
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Shuyu Y. Chang↗
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Kankakee River Water Resources: Monitoring Temperature and Vegetation to Detect River Flow Impediments at Energy Intake Structures
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Marisa Smedsrud↗
Kankakee River Water Resources: Monitoring Temperature and Vegetation to Detect River Flow Impediments at Energy Intake Structures
The goal of this tutorial is to provide a comprehensive and accessible guide for detecting aquatic vegetation within the Kankakee River using Earth Observation data as well as pairing these observations with environmental trends monitoring. By offering step-by-step instructions and insights into the latest remote sensing technologies, this tutorial aims to equip readers with the knowledge and tools necessary to identify and track aquatic vegetation within a river extent of their choice.
Marisa Smedsrud↗
Gas Supersaturation May Reduce the Survival of Yearling Chinook Salmon in the Lower Columbia River and Ocean Plume
Unusually high flows in the Columbia River in 2011 raised total dissolved gas (TDG) levels in the river above the 120 percent legal limit imposed to prevent harmful impacts to aquatic organisms. This provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the effect on smolt survival. In-river (IR) migrating juvenile yearling Chinook released at Bonneville Dam with acoustic tags during periods when TDG exceeded 120 percent received estimated maximum exposures of 134 TDG. Subsequent daily survival rates in the lower river and plume were reduced by 0.06 per day (SE equals 0.01) and 0.15 per day (SE equals 0.05) relative to IR migrant fish released when TDG was less than 120 percent. Transported smolts (T) released 10-13 kilometers below Bonneville Dam had lower maximum exposure levels (126 percent) and experienced no difference in daily survival rates relative to unexposed smolts. River temperature levels and trends in turbidity and disease prevalence between releases of high and low exposure smolts were not consistent with the observed effects on survival rates. We conclude that smolts may suffer from chronic effects of elevated TDG exposure while migrating through the Columbia River and plume. Consideration should be given to measuring these survival losses in an explicit experimental framework that isolates possible confounding factors.
survival↗
Sea, ice and surface water circulation, Alaskan continental shelf
The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery has been extremely useful in understanding the tidal water movements in a large estuary such as Cook Inlet. As more imagery obtained during various tidal stages become available it appears that complex and fast changing micro-circulation patterns develop in various regions of Cook Inlet during each advancing and receding tide. More ERTS-1 synoptic imagery is needed to fully understand the effect of the approach of tidal front on the water movements in the various regions through the estuary. The conventional onboard ship data gathered during various cruises although revealed the overall circulation pattern in Cook Inlet but failed to show micro-subgyres which develop in various regions during each tide which are discernible on ther ERTS-1 imagery. Suspended load distribution in the Bering Sea during summer varies significantly. In areas of phytoplankton bloom and at the river mouths the suspended load is higher than the 1 mg/1 which is found over most areas. The influence of major rivers on temperature, salinity, and suspended load in surface water as well as at shallow depth is apparent. On the Bering shelf a strong pycnocline generally at depth 10-20 m is formed by surface fresh water flow which retains sediment in suspension over extended periods.
Sharma, G. D.↗
Kankakee Water Resources: Monitoring Temperature and Vegetation to Detect River Flow Impediments at Energy Intake Structures
In recent years, unpredictable grassing events have occurred at the Dresden Generating Station, located on the Kankakee River in northern Illinois. Grassing events are characterized by large mats of aquatic vegetation that accumulate downstream, resulting in the clogging of water intake structures and leading to major disruptions in power generation. Currently, employees at the Dresden Generating Station are responsible for reactively responding to each grassing event individually. This project, in partnership with Constellation Nuclear and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), assessed the feasibility of using Earth observations (Landsat 9 OLI-2, Landsat 8 OLI, Sentinel-2 MSI, DOVE PlanetScope, WorldView-3, and GPM IMERG) to detect floating aquatic vegetation within the Kankakee River and identify predictive factors that trigger grassing events, as doing so will provide the Dresden Generating Station the ability to anticipate future grassing events and enhance general hydrologic modeling efforts held by the USGS. The results of this study illustrated that, while aquatic vegetation can be detected by satellites with up to moderate spatial resolution (30 m), temporal resolution is a major limiting factor for tracking movements in floating aquatic vegetation and identifying predictive measures for these events. In addition, correlation results suggest a possible negative relationship between grassing events and river discharge (-0.875 correlation coefficient). In the future, pairing these results with ground control surveys and sensors with higher temporal capabilities would allow our project partners to predict and proactively address future grassing events, ensuring the reliable operation of the Dresden Generating Station.
Marisa Smedsrud↗
Snowpack Contributions and Temperature Characterization of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the Western Cordillera of the United States
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J. Michelle Hu↗
Water resources planning for rivers draining into Mobile Bay. Part 2: Non-conservative species transport models
Total coliform group bacteria were selected to expand the mathematical modeling capabilities of the hydrodynamic and salinity models to understand their relationship to commercial fishing ventures within bay waters and to gain a clear insight into the effect that rivers draining into the bay have on water quality conditions. Parametric observations revealed that temperature factors and river flow rate have a pronounced effect on the concentration profiles, while wind conditions showed only slight effects. An examination of coliform group loading concentrations at constant river flow rates and temperature shows these loading changes have an appreciable influence on total coliform distribution within Mobile Bay.
April, G. C.↗
Modelling the Future Hydroclimatology of the Lower Fraser River and its Impacts on the Spawning Migration Survival of Sockeye Salmon
Short episodic high temperature events can be lethal for migrating adult Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). We downscaled temperatures for the Fraser River, British Columbia to evaluate the impact of climate warming on the frequency of exceeding thermal thresholds associated with salmon migratory success. Alarmingly, a modest 1.0 C increase in average summer water temperature over 100 years (1981-2000 to 2081-2100) tripled the number of days per year exceeding critical salmonid thermal thresholds (i.e. 19.0 C). Refined thresholds for two populations (Gates Creek and Weaver Creek) of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) were defined using physiological constraint models based on aerobic scope. While extreme temperatures leading to complete aerobic collapse remained unlikely under our warming scenario, both populations were increasingly forced to migrate upriver at reduced levels of aerobic performance (e.g. in 80% of future simulations, => 90% of salmon encountered temperatures exceeding population specific thermal optima for maximum aerobic scope; T(sub opt)) = 16.3 C for Gates Creek and T(sub sopt)=14.5 C for Weaver Creek). Assuming recent changes to river entry timing persist, we also predicted dramatic increases in the probability of freshwater mortality for Weaver Creek salmon due to reductions in aerobic, and general physiological, performance (e.g. in 42% of future simulations =>50% of Weaver Creek fish exceeded temperature thresholds associated with 0 - 60% of maximum aerobic scope). Potential for adaptation via directional selection on run-timing was more evident for the Weaver Creek population. Early entry Weaver Creek fish experienced 25% (range: 15 - 31%) more suboptimal temperatures than late entrants, compared with an 8% difference (range: 0 - 17%) between early and late Gates Creek fish. Our results emphasize the need to consider daily temperature variability in association with population-specific differences in behaviour and physiological constraints when forecasting impacts of climate change on migratory survival of aquatic species.
Hague, M. J.↗
Modelling of physical influences in sea level records for vertical crustal movement detection
Attempts to specify and evaluate such physical influences are reviewed with the intention of identifying problem areas and promising approaches. An example of linear modelling based on air/water temperatures, atmospheric pressure, river discharges, geostrophic and/or local wind velocities, and including forced period terms to allow for the long period tides and Chandlerian polar motion is evaluated and applied to monthly mean sea levels recorded in Atlantic Canada. Refinement of the model to admit phase lag in the response to some of the driving phenomena is demonstrated. Spectral analysis of the residuals is employed to assess the model performance. The results and associated statistical parameters are discussed with emphasis on elucidating the sensitivity of the technique for detection of local episodic and secular vertical crustal movements, the problem areas most critical to the type of approach, and possible further developments.
Anderson, E. G.↗
To What Extent Can Vegetation Mitigate Greenhouse Warming? A Modeling Approach
Climate models participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report indicate that under a 2xCO2 environment, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We postulate that the increase in precipitation associated with the increase in CO2 is also increasing vegetation density, which may already be feeding back onto climate. Including this feedback in a climate model simulation resulted in precipitation and runoff trends consistent with observations and reduced the warming by 0.6OC overland. This unaccounted for missing water may be linked to about 10% of the missing land carbon sink. A recent compilation of outputs from 19 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) shows projected increases in air temperature, precipitation and river discharge for 24 major rivers in the world in response to doubling CO2 by the end of the century (1). The ensemble mean from these models also indicates that, compared to their respective baselines overland, the global mean of the runoff change would increase faster (8.9% per year) than that of the precipitation (5% per year). We analyze century-scale observed annual runoff time-series (1901-2002) over 9 hydrological units covering large regions of the Eastern United States (Fig.1) compiled by the United States Geological Survey (USGS)(2). These regions were selected because they are the most forested; the least water-limited and are not under extensive irrigation. We compare these time-series to similar time-series of observed annual precipitation anomalies spanning the period 1900-1995 (3). Both time-series exhibit a positive longterm trend (Fig. 2); however, in contrast to the analysis of (I), these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increase is 5.5 % per year, roughly double the rate of runoff increase of 3.1 % per year.
Bounoua, L.↗
A Thermal Survey Instrument Using LSI Data Storage
This paper describes a developmental system for monitoring the temperature of lakes and rivers. The battery powered instrument is housed in a buoy and requires no external electrical connections. Temperature is periodically sampled and stored in LSI shift register circuits. Depending on the type of data reduction used, storage times from days to weeks are possible. The measurement range is from 0 C to 50 C with an accuracy of +/- 0.1 c. This is accomplished using a novel temperature sensitive C/MOS oscillator together with off-line computer linearization. The electronics is partitioned for eventual C/MOS LSI implementation which should result in a total cost of under $1,000 for the system.
Lathrop. Jay W.↗
Thermal study of the Missouri River in North Dakota using infrared imagery
Studies of infrared imagery obtained from aircraft at 305- to 1,524-meter altitudes indicate the feasibility of monitoring thermal changes attributable to the operation of thermal electric plants and storage reservoirs, as well as natural phenomena such as tributary inflow and ground water seeps in large rivers. No identifiable sources of ground water inflow below the surface of the river could be found in the imagery. The thermal patterns from the generating plants and the major tributary inflow are readily apparent in imagery obtained from an altitude of 305 meters. Portions of the tape-recorded imagery were processed in a color-coded quantization to enhance the displays and to attach quantitative significance to the data. The study indicates a marked decrease in water temperature in the Missouri River prior to early fall and a moderate increase in temperature in late fall because of the Lake Sakakawea impoundment.
Crosby, O. A.↗
Global change data sets: Excerpts from the Master Directory, version 2.0
The recent awakening to the reality of human-induced changes to the environment has resulted in an organized effort to promote global change research. The goal of this research as outlined by NASA's Earth System Science Committee (Earth System Science: A closer View, 1988) is to understand the entire Earth system on a global scale by describing how its component parts and their interactions have evolved, how they function, and how they may be expected to evolve on all timescales. The practical result is the capacity to predict that evolution over the next decade to century. Key variables important for the study of global change include external forcing factors (solar radiance, UV flux), radiatively and chemically important trace species (CO2, CH4, N2O, etc.), atmospheric response variables (temperature, pressure, winds), landsurface properties (river run-off, snow cover, albedo, soil moisture, vegetation cover), and oceanic variables (sea surface temperature, sea ice extent, sea level ocean wind stress, currents, chlorophyll, biogeochemical fluxes). The purpose of this document is to identify existing data sets available (both remotely sensed and in situ data) covering some of these variables. This is not intended to be a complete list of global change data, but merely a highlight of what is available. The information was extracted from the Master Directory (MD), an on-line scientific data information service which may be used by any researcher. This report contains the coverage dates for the data sets, sources (satellites, instruments) of the data and where they are archived.
Beier, Joy↗
Hydrologic applications of Nimbus 5 ESMR data
A region of low brightness temperature lying along the Mississippi River from Cairo, Illinois, to Morganza, Louisiana was observed in early Nimbus 5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer images. This region, which generally corresponds to an outwash aquifer in the Mississippi Valley, had brightness temperatures, at times as much as 40 K below the surrounding (drier) older uplands. Fluctuations of as much as 30 K were observed during the time interval 15 December 1972 to 28 February 1973. Comparison images taken from the Earth Resources Technology Satellite indicate that the study area is aligned with the Mississippi River floodplain, a region of potentially high soil moisture content. The brightness temperature fluctuations were compared with variations in precipitation and other hydrologic parameters in order to delineate the causative factors.
Schmugge, T. J.↗
Multi-Factor Impact Analysis of Agricultural Production in Bangladesh with Climate Change
Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040-2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins' hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.
Ruane, Alex C.↗
Effects of Mackenzie River Discharge and Bathymetry on Sea Ice in the Beaufort Sea
Mackenzie River discharge and bathymetry effects on sea ice in the Beaufort Sea are examined in 2012 when Arctic sea ice extent hit a record low. Satellite-derived sea surface temperature revealed warmer waters closer to river mouths. By 5 July 2012, Mackenzie warm waters occupied most of an open water area about 316,000 sq km. Surface temperature in a common open water area increased by 6.5 C between 14 June and 5 July 2012, before and after the river waters broke through a recurrent landfast ice barrier formed over the shallow seafloor offshore the Mackenzie Delta. In 2012, melting by warm river waters was especially effective when the strong Beaufort Gyre fragmented sea ice into unconsolidated floes. The Mackenzie and other large rivers can transport an enormous amount of heat across immense continental watersheds into the Arctic Ocean, constituting a stark contrast to the Antarctic that has no such rivers to affect sea ice.
Mackenzie↗
A comparison of surface temperature derived from HCMM infrared measurements with field data
The satellite for the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission (HCMM) was launched on April 26, 1978. The HCMM had the objective to collect data in support of studies concerned with the feasibility of using infrared temperature data to compute the thermal inertia from the earth's surface. The HCMM radiometer had a channel for reflected radiation in the 0.5 to 1.1 micron waveband, and a channel for the infrared radiation in the 10.5 to 12.5 micron band. However, difficulties developed in connection with changes in the characteristics of the radiometer. The present investigation is concerned with a comparison of HCMM infrared temperatures with in situ data from the Mississippi River in the St. Louis, Missouri, area and with sea-surface temperatures collected in the Nantucket Shoals and Gulf of Mexico regions. It was found that, on the average, the difference between satellite in situ data was -4.6 C.
Vukovich, F. M.↗