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DOE OSTI2020

A survey of nonlinear robust optimization

Robust optimization (RO) has attracted great attention from the optimization community over the past decade. RO is dedicated to solving optimization problems subject to uncertainty: design constraints must be satisfied for all the values of the uncertain parameters within a given uncertainty set. Uncertainty sets may be modeled as deterministic sets (boxes, polyhedra, ellipsoids), in which case the RO problem may be reformulated via worst-case analysis, or as families of distributions. The challenge of RO is to reformulate or approximate robust constraints so that the uncertain optimization problem is transformed into a tractable deterministic optimization problem. Most reformulation methods assume linearity of the robust constraints or uncertainty sets of favorable shape, which represents only a fraction of real-world applications. This survey addresses nonlinear RO and includes problem formulations and applications, solution approaches, and available software with code samples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2012

Robustness Analysis and Optimally Robust Control Design via Sum-of-Squares

A control analysis and design framework is proposed for systems subject to parametric uncertainty. The underlying strategies are based on sum-of-squares (SOS) polynomial analysis and nonlinear optimization to design an optimally robust controller. The approach determines a maximum uncertainty range for which the closed-loop system satisfies a set of stability and performance requirements. These requirements, de ned as inequality constraints on several metrics, are restricted to polynomial functions of the uncertainty. To quantify robustness, SOS analysis is used to prove that the closed-loop system complies with the requirements for a given uncertainty range. The maximum uncertainty range, calculated by assessing a sequence of increasingly larger ranges, serves as a robustness metric for the closed-loop system. To optimize the control design, nonlinear optimization is used to enlarge the maximum uncertainty range by tuning the controller gains. Hence, the resulting controller is optimally robust to parametric uncertainty. This approach balances the robustness margins corresponding to each requirement in order to maximize the aggregate system robustness. The proposed framework is applied to a simple linear short-period aircraft model with uncertain aerodynamic coefficients.

Dorobantu, Andrei↗

DOE OSTI2023

Residuals-based distributionally robust optimization with covariate information

We consider data-driven approaches that integrate a machine learning prediction model within distributionally robust optimization (DRO) given limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates. Our framework is flexible in the sense that it can accommodate a variety of regression setups and DRO ambiguity sets. We investigate asymptotic and finite sample properties of solutions obtained using Wasserstein, sample robust optimization, and phi-divergence-based ambiguity sets within our DRO formulations, and explore cross-validation approaches for sizing these ambiguity sets. Through numerical experiments, we validate our theoretical results, study the effectiveness of our approaches for sizing ambiguity sets, and illustrate the benefits of our DRO formulations in the limited data regime even when the prediction model is misspecified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Distributionally robust optimization with correlated data from vector autoregressive processes

Not Available

Dou, Xialiang↗

DOE OSTI2015

Selective robust optimization: A new intensity-modulated proton therapy optimization strategy

Purpose: To develop a new robust optimization strategy for intensity-modulated proton therapy as an important step in translating robust proton treatment planning from research to clinical applications. Methods: In selective robust optimization, a worst-case-based robust optimization algorithm is extended, and terms of the objective function are selectively computed from either the worst-case dose or the nominal dose. Two lung cancer cases and one head and neck cancer case were used to demonstrate the practical significance of the proposed robust planning strategy. The lung cancer cases had minimal tumor motion less than 5 mm, and, for the demonstration of the methodology, are assumed to be static. Results: Selective robust optimization achieved robust clinical target volume (CTV) coverage and at the same time increased nominal planning target volume coverage to 95.8%, compared to the 84.6% coverage achieved with CTV-based robust optimization in one of the lung cases. In the other lung case, the maximum dose in selective robust optimization was lowered from a dose of 131.3% in the CTV-based robust optimization to 113.6%. Selective robust optimization provided robust CTV coverage in the head and neck case, and at the same time improved controls over isodose distribution so that clinical requirements may be readily met. Conclusions: Selective robust optimization may provide the flexibility and capability necessary for meeting various clinical requirements in addition to achieving the required plan robustness in practical proton treatment planning settings.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

BROOD: Bilevel and Robust Optimization and Outlier Detection for Efficient Tuning of High-Energy Physics Event Generators

The parameters in Monte Carlo (MC) event generators are tuned on experimental measurements by evaluating the goodness of fit between the data and the MC predictions. The relative importance of each measurement is adjusted manually in an often time-consuming, iterative process to meet different experimental needs. In this work, we introduce several optimization formulations and algorithms with new decision criteria for streamlining and automating this process. These algorithms are designed for two formulations: bilevel optimization and robust optimization. Both formulations are applied to the datasets used in the ATLAS A14 tune and to the dedicated hadronization datasets generated by the SHERPA generator, respectively. The corresponding tuned generator parameters are compared using three metrics. We compare the quality of our automatic tunes to the published ATLAS A14 tune. Moreover, we analyze the impact of a pre-processing step that excludes data that cannot be described by the physics models used in the MC event generators.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-187: Quantifying Normal Tissue Sparing with 4D Robust Optimization of Intensity Modulated Proton Therapy

Purpose: To report an approach to quantify the normal tissue sparing for 4D robustly-optimized versus PTV-optimized IMPT plans. Methods: We generated two sets of 90 DVHs from a patient’s 10-phase 4D CT set; one by conventional PTV-based optimization done in the Eclipse treatment planning system, and the other by an in-house robust optimization algorithm. The 90 DVHs were created for the following scenarios in each of the ten phases of the 4DCT: ± 5mm shift along x, y, z; ± 3.5% range uncertainty and a nominal scenario. A Matlab function written by Gay and Niemierko was modified to calculate EUD for each DVH for the following structures: esophagus, heart, ipsilateral lung and spinal cord. An F-test determined whether or not the variances of each structure’s DVHs were statistically different. Then a t-test determined if the average EUDs for each optimization algorithm were statistically significantly different. Results: T-test results showed each structure had a statistically significant difference in average EUD when comparing robust optimization versus PTV-based optimization. Under robust optimization all structures except the spinal cord received lower EUDs than PTV-based optimization. Using robust optimization the average EUDs decreased 1.45% for the esophagus, 1.54% for the heart and 5.45% for the ipsilateral lung. The average EUD to the spinal cord increased 24.86% but was still well below tolerance. Conclusion: This work has helped quantify a qualitative relationship noted earlier in our work: that robust optimization leads to plans with greater normal tissue sparing compared to PTV-based optimization. Except in the case of the spinal cord all structures received a lower EUD under robust optimization and these results are statistically significant. While the average EUD to the spinal cord increased to 25.06 Gy under robust optimization it is still well under the TD50 value of 66.5 Gy from Emami et al. Supported in part by the NCI U19 CA021239.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Revealing Decision Conservativeness Through Inverse Distributionally Robust Optimization

This paper introduces Inverse Distributionally Robust Optimization (I-DRO) as a method to infer the conservativeness level of a decision-maker, represented by the size of a Wasserstein metric-based ambiguity set, from the optimal decisions made using Forward Distributionally Robust Optimization (F-DRO). By leveraging the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions of the convex F-DRO model, we formulate I-DRO as a bi-linear program, which can be solved using off-the-shelf optimization solvers. Additionally, this formulation exhibits several advantageous properties. We demonstrate that I-DRO not only guarantees the existence and uniqueness of an optimal solution but also establishes the necessary and sufficient conditions for this optimal solution to accurately match the actual conservativeness level in F-DRO. Furthermore, we identify three extreme scenarios that may impact I-DRO effectiveness. Our case study applies F-DRO for power system scheduling under uncertainty and employs I-DRO to recover the conservativeness level of system operators. Numerical experiments based on an IEEE 5-bus system and a realistic NYISO 11-zone system demonstrate I-DRO performance in both normal and extreme scenarios. An extended version of this paper with additional analyses is available at li2024revealing.

distributionally robust optimization↗

NASA NTRS2004

Employing Sensitivity Derivatives for Robust Optimization under Uncertainty in CFD

A robust optimization is demonstrated on a two-dimensional inviscid airfoil problem in subsonic flow. Given uncertainties in statistically independent, random, normally distributed flow parameters (input variables), an approximate first-order statistical moment method is employed to represent the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code outputs as expected values with variances. These output quantities are used to form the objective function and constraints. The constraints are cast in probabilistic terms; that is, the probability that a constraint is satisfied is greater than or equal to some desired target probability. Gradient-based robust optimization of this stochastic problem is accomplished through use of both first and second-order sensitivity derivatives. For each robust optimization, the effect of increasing both input standard deviations and target probability of constraint satisfaction are demonstrated. This method provides a means for incorporating uncertainty when considering small deviations from input mean values.

Newman, Perry A.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Exploratory Study of 4D versus 3D Robust Optimization in Intensity Modulated Proton Therapy for Lung Cancer

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare the impact of uncertainties and interplay on 3-dimensional (3D) and 4D robustly optimized intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) plans for lung cancer in an exploratory methodology study. Methods and Materials: IMPT plans were created for 11 nonrandomly selected non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cases: 3D robustly optimized plans on average CTs with internal gross tumor volume density overridden to irradiate internal target volume, and 4D robustly optimized plans on 4D computed tomography (CT) to irradiate clinical target volume (CTV). Regular fractionation (66 Gy [relative biological effectiveness; RBE] in 33 fractions) was considered. In 4D optimization, the CTV of individual phases received nonuniform doses to achieve a uniform cumulative dose. The root-mean-square dose-volume histograms (RVH) measured the sensitivity of the dose to uncertainties, and the areas under the RVH curve (AUCs) were used to evaluate plan robustness. Dose evaluation software modeled time-dependent spot delivery to incorporate interplay effect with randomized starting phases of each field per fraction. Dose-volume histogram (DVH) indices comparing CTV coverage, homogeneity, and normal tissue sparing were evaluated using Wilcoxon signed rank test. Results: 4D robust optimization plans led to smaller AUC for CTV (14.26 vs 18.61, respectively; P=.001), better CTV coverage (Gy [RBE]) (D{sub 95%} CTV: 60.6 vs 55.2, respectively; P=.001), and better CTV homogeneity (D{sub 5%}-D{sub 95%} CTV: 10.3 vs 17.7, resspectively; P=.002) in the face of uncertainties. With interplay effect considered, 4D robust optimization produced plans with better target coverage (D{sub 95%} CTV: 64.5 vs 63.8, respectively; P=.0068), comparable target homogeneity, and comparable normal tissue protection. The benefits from 4D robust optimization were most obvious for the 2 typical stage III lung cancer patients. Conclusions: Our exploratory methodology study showed that, compared to 3D robust optimization, 4D robust optimization produced significantly more robust and interplay-effect-resistant plans for targets with comparable dose distributions for normal tissues. A further study with a larger and more realistic patient population is warranted to generalize the conclusions.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2016

WE-AB-209-01: A Monte Carlo-Based Method to Include Random Errors in Robust Optimization

Purpose: To develop an efficient method to implement random set-up errors and organ motion in robust optimization for proton therapy treatment planning. Methods: The plans were created with an in-house robust optimizer, coupled with a super-fast Monte Carlo (MC) engine (less than 1 minute for final dose). MC simulates random errors by shifting randomly the starting point of each particle, according to their probability distribution. Such strategy assumes a sufficient number of treatment fractions. Two strategies are presented: 1) Full robust optimization with beamlets that already include the effect of random errors and 2) Mixed robust optimization, where the nominal beamlets are involved but a correction term C modifies the prescription. Starting from C=0, the method alternates optimization of the spot weights with the nominal beamlets and updates of C, with C=Drandom-Dnominal and where Drandom results from a regular MC computation (without pre-computed beamlets) that simulates random errors. Updates of C can be triggered as often as necessary by running the MC engine with the last corrected values for the spot weights as input. The method was applied to lung and prostate cases. For both patients the range error was set to 3%, systematic setup error to 5mm and standard deviation for random errors to 5 mm. Comparison between full robust optimization and the mixed strategy (with 3 updates of C) is presented. Results: Target coverage was far below the clinical constraints (D{sub 95} > 95% of the prescribed dose) for plans where random errors were not simulated, especially for lung case. However, by using the proposed strategies the plans achieved a target coverage above clinical constraints. Conclusion: Full robust optimization gives better results than the mixed strategy, but the latter can be useful in cases where a MC engine is not available or too computationally intensive for beamlets calculation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

TH-CD-209-04: Fuzzy Robust Optimization in Intensity-Modulated Proton Therapy Planning to Account for Range and Patient Setup Uncertainties

Purpose: We propose to apply a robust optimization model based on fuzzy-logic constraints in the intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) planning subject to range and patient setup uncertainties. The purpose is to ensure the plan robustness under uncertainty and obtain the best trade-off between tumor dose coverage and organ-at-risk(OAR) sparing. Methods: Two IMPT plans were generated for 3 head-and-neck cancer patients: one used the planning target volume(PTV) method; the other used the fuzzy robust optimization method. In the latter method, nine dose distributions were computed - the nominal one and one each for ±3mm setup uncertainties along three cardinal axes and for ±3.5% range uncertainty. For tumors, these nine dose distributions were explicitly controlled by adding hard constraints with adjustable parameters. For OARs, fuzzy constraints that allow the dose to vary within a certain range were used so that the tumor dose distribution was guaranteed by minimum compromise of that of OARs. We rendered this model tractable by converting the fuzzy constraints to linear constraints. The plan quality was evaluated using dose-volume histogram(DVH) indices such as tumor dose coverage(D95%), homogeneity(D5%-D95%), plan robustness(DVH band at D95%), and OAR sparing like D1% of brain and D1% of brainstem. Results: Our model could yield clinically acceptable plans. The fuzzy-logic robust optimization method produced IMPT plans with comparable target dose coverage and homogeneity compared to the PTV method(unit: Gy[RBE]; average[min, max])(CTV D95%: 59 [52.7, 63.5] vs 53.5[46.4, 60.1], CTV D5% - D95%: 11.1[5.3, 18.6] vs 14.4[9.2, 21.5]). It also generated more robust plans(CTV DVH band at D95%: 3.8[1.2, 5.6] vs 11.5[6.2, 16.7]). The parameters of tumor constraints could be adjusted to control the tradeoff between tumor coverage and OAR sparing. Conclusion: The fuzzy-logic robust optimization generates superior IMPT with minimum compromise of OAR sparing. This research was supported by the National Cancer Institute Career Developmental Award K25CA168984, by the Fraternal Order of Eagles Cancer Research Fund Career Development Award, by The Lawrence W. and Marilyn W. Matteson Fund for Cancer Research, by Mayo Arizona State University Seed Grant, and by The Kemper Marley Foundation. eRA Person ID(s) for the Principal Investigator: 11017970 (Research Supported by National Institutes of Health)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Stochastic Optimal Power Flow Based on Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Optimization

We propose a data-driven method to solve a stochastic optimal power flow (OPF) problem based on limited information about forecast error distributions. The objective is to determine power schedules for controllable devices in a power network to balance operational cost and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of device and network constraint violations. These decisions include scheduled power output adjustments and reserve policies, which specify planned reactions to forecast errors in order to accommodate fluctuating renewable energy sources. Instead of assuming the uncertainties across the networks follow prescribed probability distributions, we assume the distributions are only observable through a finite training dataset. By utilizing the Wasserstein metric to quantify differences between the empirical data-based distribution and the real data-generating distribution, we formulate a distributionally robust optimization OPF problem to search for power schedules and reserve policies that are robust to sampling errors inherent in the dataset. A multi-stage closed-loop control strategy based on model predictive control (MPC) is also discussed. A simpIe numerical example illustrates inherent tradeoffs between operational cost and risk of constraint violation, and we show how our proposed method offers a data-driven framework to balance these objectives.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2016

TH-CD-209-05: Impact of Spot Size and Spacing On the Quality of Robustly-Optimized Intensity-Modulated Proton Therapy Plans for Lung Cancer

Purpose: To investigate how spot size and spacing affect plan quality, especially, plan robustness and the impact of interplay effect, of robustly-optimized intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) plans for lung cancer. Methods: Two robustly-optimized IMPT plans were created for 10 lung cancer patients: (1) one for a proton beam with in-air energy dependent large spot size at isocenter (σ: 5–15 mm) and spacing (1.53σ); (2) the other for a proton beam with small spot size (σ: 2–6 mm) and spacing (5 mm). Both plans were generated on the average CTs with internal-gross-tumor-volume density overridden to irradiate internal target volume (ITV). The root-mean-square-dose volume histograms (RVH) measured the sensitivity of the dose to uncertainties, and the areas under RVH curves were used to evaluate plan robustness. Dose evaluation software was developed to model time-dependent spot delivery to incorporate interplay effect with randomized starting phases of each field per fraction. Patient anatomy voxels were mapped from phase to phase via deformable image registration to score doses. Dose-volume-histogram indices including ITV coverage, homogeneity, and organs-at-risk (OAR) sparing were compared using Student-t test. Results: Compared to large spots, small spots resulted in significantly better OAR sparing with comparable ITV coverage and homogeneity in the nominal plan. Plan robustness was comparable for ITV and most OARs. With interplay effect considered, significantly better OAR sparing with comparable ITV coverage and homogeneity is observed using smaller spots. Conclusion: Robust optimization with smaller spots significantly improves OAR sparing with comparable plan robustness and similar impact of interplay effect compare to larger spots. Small spot size requires the use of larger number of spots, which gives optimizer more freedom to render a plan more robust. The ratio between spot size and spacing was found to be more relevant to determine plan robustness and the impact of interplay effect than spot size alone. This research was supported by the National Cancer Institute Career Developmental Award K25CA168984, by the Fraternal Order of Eagles Cancer Research Fund Career Development Award, by The Lawrence W. and Marilyn W. Matteson Fund for Cancer Research, by Mayo Arizona State University Seed Grant, and by The Kemper Marley Foundation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A multistage distributionally robust optimization approach to water allocation under climate uncertainty

This paper investigates a Multistage Distributionally Robust Optimization (MDRO) approach to water allocation under climate uncertainty. The MDRO is formed by creating sets of conditional distributions (called conditional ambiguity sets) on a finite scenario tree. The distributions in the conditional ambiguity sets remain close to a nominal conditional distribution according a ø-divergence (e.g., Kullback-Leibler divergence, Hellinger distance, Burg entropy, etc.). Here, the paper discusses a decomposition algorithm to solve the resulting MDRO with ø-divergences, which uses the dual formulation and solves only linear subproblems instead of convex ones. Some properties of the algorithm such as generating feasible policies and valid upper/lower bounds are established. The paper then applies the modeling and solution techniques to allocate water in a rapidly-developing area of Tucson, Arizona. Tucson, like many arid and semi-arid regions around the world, faces considerable uncertainty in its ability to provide water for its citizens in the future. The primary sources of uncertainty in the Tucson region include (1) unpredictable population growth, (2) the availability of water from the Colorado River, and (3) the effects of climate variability on water consumption. This paper integrates forecasts for all these sources of uncertainty into a single optimization model for robust and sustainable water allocation. Then, it uses this model to analyze the value of constructing additional treatment facilities to reduce future water shortages. The results indicate that the MDRO approach can be very valuable for water managers by providing insights to minimize their risks and help them plan for the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Robust Optimal Experimental Design of Infinite-Dimensional Bayesian Nonlinear Inverse Problems

Abstract. We consider robust optimal experimental design (ROED) for nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). An optimal design is one that maximizes some utility quantifying the quality of the solution of an inverse problem. However, the optimal design is dependent on elements of the inverse problem such as the simulation model, the prior, or the measurement error model. ROED aims to produce an optimal design that is aware of the additional uncertainties encoded in the inverse problem and remains optimal even after variations in them. We follow a worst-case scenario approach to develop a new framework for robust optimal design of nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems. The proposed framework (a) is scalable and designed for infinite-dimensional Bayesian nonlinear inverse problems constrained by PDEs; (b) develops efficient approximations of the utility, namely the expected information gain; (c) employs eigenvalue sensitivity techniques to develop analytical forms and efficient evaluation methods of the gradient of the utility with respect to the uncertainties against which we wish to be robust; and (d) employs a probabilistic optimization paradigm that properly defines and efficiently solves the resulting combinatorial max-min optimization problem. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is illustrated for optimal sensor placement problem in an inverse problem governed by an elliptic PDE.

Chowdhary, Abhijit↗

DOE OSTI2016

Limited Impact of Setup and Range Uncertainties, Breathing Motion, and Interplay Effects in Robustly Optimized Intensity Modulated Proton Therapy for Stage III Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: To investigate the impact of setup and range uncertainties, breathing motion, and interplay effects using scanning pencil beams in robustly optimized intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) for stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: Three-field IMPT plans were created using a minimax robust optimization technique for 10 NSCLC patients. The plans accounted for 5- or 7-mm setup errors with ±3% range uncertainties. The robustness of the IMPT nominal plans was evaluated considering (1) isotropic 5-mm setup errors with ±3% range uncertainties; (2) breathing motion; (3) interplay effects; and (4) a combination of items 1 and 2. The plans were calculated using 4-dimensional and average intensity projection computed tomography images. The target coverage (TC, volume receiving 95% of prescribed dose) and homogeneity index (D{sub 2} − D{sub 98}, where D{sub 2} and D{sub 98} are the least doses received by 2% and 98% of the volume) for the internal clinical target volume, and dose indexes for lung, esophagus, heart and spinal cord were compared with that of clinical volumetric modulated arc therapy plans. Results: The TC and homogeneity index for all plans were within clinical limits when considering the breathing motion and interplay effects independently. The setup and range uncertainties had a larger effect when considering their combined effect. The TC decreased to <98% (clinical threshold) in 3 of 10 patients for robust 5-mm evaluations. However, the TC remained >98% for robust 7-mm evaluations for all patients. The organ at risk dose parameters did not significantly vary between the respective robust 5-mm and robust 7-mm evaluations for the 4 error types. Compared with the volumetric modulated arc therapy plans, the IMPT plans showed better target homogeneity and mean lung and heart dose parameters reduced by about 40% and 60%, respectively. Conclusions: In robustly optimized IMPT for stage III NSCLC, the setup and range uncertainties, breathing motion, and interplay effects have limited impact on target coverage, dose homogeneity, and organ-at-risk dose parameters.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Residuals-based distributionally robust optimization with covariate information

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗