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Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Safeguards; Evaluating Safeguards and Security Risks and Benefits for Advanced and Small Modular Reactor Deployments

Rapidly growing interest in advanced and small modular reactor (A/SMR) technologies presents challenges as well as opportunities for implementing international safeguards and security. A/SMR deployments are expected to be more numerous, more geographically dispersed, and more varied in their designs, placing new demands on the data systems and analytical tools used to support oversight (Alberti et al., 2023; Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission et al., 2024). Because of this variability, the importance and reliance on data systems for A/SMR deployments is expected to be higher than for previous reactor generations. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) offer potential capabilities to address the high variability inherent in A/SMR technology. The beneficiaries of AI-assisted tools include facility operators, government regulators, IAEA inspectors, and A/SMR vendors. This report analyzes how AI/ML-assisted technologies can strengthen the implementation of IAEA safeguards and security measures. It also identifies AI-assisted tools to strengthen operator, facility, and regulator knowledge management practices and examines the potential risks AI/ML-based tools may introduce to IAEA safeguards and security efforts. It concludes with a set of hypothetical, standards-style requirements for AI/ML systems used in safeguards contexts, grounded in an inspector-centric view of system verification. Despite the potential benefits of AI/ML systems, understanding potential intentional and unintentional failure modes is critical for ensuring adequate protection of nuclear materials and facilities. Unique features of A/SMRs including sealed cores, remote and novel paradigms of operation, off-site reactor fabrication, novel fuel forms, and varied refueling requirements, introduce challenges for traditional safeguards technological approaches (Pensado et al., 2024; Federation of American Scientists, 2025). AI/ML systems deployed to address these challenges may introduce new risks requiring systematic evaluation rooted in both AI-specific risk frameworks, such as the NIST AI Risk Management Framework (NIST AI RMF), and established cyber risk management standards such as NIST SP 800-30 (National Institute of Standards and Technology [NIST], 2023; NIST, 2012).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Identify and Assess Technical Challenges in Safeguards Measurements of Spent Advanced Reactor Fuels

Advanced reactor (AR) designs use various nuclear fuel types that can be significantly different than conventional light-water reactor (LWR) fuels, including differences in sizes, compositions, and chemical forms (e.g., oxide, carbide, metal). Nearly all the proposed AR fuels use high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), which will have higher enrichments (5–20 wt% 235 U) than LWR fuels (currently limited to <5 wt% 235 U). In advance of the wide use of these new fuel types around the world, international safeguards organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA]) are working with some of the AR vendors to formulate safeguards approaches for these AR fuel cycles. As part of the overall safeguards approach, it is important to identify the potential technical challenges in performing safeguards verification measurements of these AR fuels (both fresh and spent fuels) in advance of the widespread adoption of these new fuel types, because new safeguards technologies can take several years to develop, test, and approve for use. This report documents work performed in fiscal year 2024 based on modeling and simulation to assess the performance of the existing safeguards measurement technologies for irradiated or spent AR fuel elements or items. This work is a continuation of the work performed in fiscal year 2023 that focused on fresh AR fuels. Spent AR fuels have a distinct difference from their LWR counterparts: unlike the spent LWR fuels typically stored in a water-filled pool, some spent AR fuels—such as tristructural-isotropic (TRISO)-based fuels—will most likely be stored in air-filled hot cells. Because most safeguards measurements on spent fuel performed to date have been conducted under water, the air-filled hot cell environment could present unique challenges to safeguards measurements. Fork detector (FDET) and Cerenkov viewing device (CVD) systems have been the two primary instruments used by the IAEA for several decades to measure spent LWR fuel assemblies stored in pools for safeguards verification purposes. Because the lower refractive index of air causes Cerenkov light to be of lower intensity in air than in water, existing CVDs are likely unable to perform safeguards verification measurements for spent fuel stored in an air-filled hot cell, as is the case for the TRISO-based spent fuel elements (e.g., pebbles, graphite fuel blocks). Unlike FDET measurements, CVD measurements do not require fuel be moved, so they are a simpler and faster to take than FDET measurements. The inability to perform CVD measurements on the TRISO-based AR fuel types presents a major technical challenge in the effort to use existing technology to perform safeguards measurements on spent AR fuels. This study was mainly conducted through the modeling and simulation of an FDET or an FDET-like system on five spent AR fuel types, including one metallic fuel type and four TRISO-based fuel types in both pebble and graphite block forms in their respective storage configurations and environments. Because the various AR fuel types have significantly different dimensions, FDET systems must be adapted to accommodate them. Partial defect tests were also simulated in this study to assess the FDET’s ability to detect potential fuel diversions. The FDET measures the fuel’s total passive neutron and gamma emissions. The simulated FDET results from spent AR fuel items are compared against results from a typical spent pressurized water reactor (PWR) assembly. High-purity germanium (HPGe) gamma detector measurements were also simulated for the spent AR fuel types and the PWR assembly because the signature photopeaks have been used in LWR safeguards verifications, although HPGe is usually not used to detect diversions because of the fuel’s self-attenuation effects on those photopeaks. The results indicate that these detectors have significant challenges in performing safeguards measurements of the spent AR fuel items, including incompatibilities between AR fuel items and existing FDETs, lower neutron count rates, lower sensitivities to fuel diversions in certain AR fuel items, and significantly higher interference from a neighboring fuel item when the measurement is performed in air. These results suggest that an alternative technology or significant and timely technology development is needed to perform adequate safeguards measurements of some of these AR fuel items.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Knowledge Transfer Program for International Nuclear Safeguards

Nuclear safeguards were first announced in 1945 by the U.S., Canadian and British governments as a means to exchange scientific information about peaceful uses of atomic energy and prevent the use of nuclear material for weapons. International nuclear safeguards, now under the provision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), serves to hold accountable the 140 member countries (States) that have entered into treaties and agreements against the spread of nuclear weapons. Most notably, the IAEA acts as a nuclear materials inspectorate under the global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, brought about in 1968, that specifies commitments member States make to the world?s non-proliferation regime. The Office of International Nuclear Safeguards (OINS) is part of the National Nuclear Security Administration, a semi-autonomous agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. Within OINS, the Human Capital Development program recognizes the need to build workforce capacity and safeguards expertise. This includes supporting the education and training of younger generations working in international nuclear safeguards. One of the program?s main concerns is core competencies being lost to retirement or attrition and building knowledge retention pipelines from senior to new professionals. One identified core competency is knowledge gained by individuals who have completed IAEA assignments such as missions to member States to conduct safeguards inspections. Such individuals possess unique knowledge, and efforts are being put forth to effectively capture this knowledge within the national laboratories complex. To this end, we report findings from a one-year mentor-mentee knowledge retention program in which an international safeguards subject matter expert imparted knowledge and skills to a willing professional mentee. The knowledge and skills stem from the mentor?s multi-year assignment at the IAEA in Vienna, Austria.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL

Resolving Issues Regarding Disposal of Safeguarded Nuclear Materials: Concepts for Near Surface and Intermediate Depth Disposal sites

This document presents two case studies on nuclear waste disposal to explore the safeguards challenges and potential solutions present under each scenario. Both involve the disposal of nuclear materials, either for waste containing safeguarded nuclear materials or waste where safeguards on the nuclear materials have been previously terminated. The first case study is that of a low-level waste (LLW) repository that is situated near the surface. This facility will accept safeguarded nuclear materials for disposal. Examples of this type of activity are rare, but the potential for more facilities of this type is very possible as States become more comfortable with considering safeguards measures in perpetuity on deep geological repositories. The second study extends this to the case of terminated wastes at an intermediate depth disposal site. In this case, the reasons why terminated nuclear materials could be found in these disposal facilities and how obligations under the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA) and Additional Protocol (AP) are met when the disposed waste items are intermediate level waste (ILW) or high-level waste (HLW).

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P

Identifying Challenges in Safeguards for Metallic Fuel Fabrication Facilities

As new advanced reactors gain popularity, there is an increasing interest in metallic fuel fabrication for fast reactors. While metallic fuels themselves are not a new idea, as many of the first reactors employed metallic fuels, new designs, compositions, and fabrication methods are appearing throughout the nuclear community. As the interest grows and facilities are constructed, both domestic and international safeguards will need to be heavily involved to support safeguards-by-design (SBD) measures from the start. This work compiles a review of historical and modern fuel types and fabrication methods, fabrication processes, safeguards gaps, and potential safeguards solutions. Metallic nuclear fuel types have been around for many decades and were included in some of the first reactors including the Experimental Breeder Reactor (EBR)-I and -II, the Fermi 1 reactor, the Integral Fast Reactor (IFR), and the Dounreay Fast Reactor (DFR). These reactors used various compositions including pure uranium (U) metal, U-zirconium (Zr) alloys, plutonium (Pu)-aluminum (Al) alloys, U-fissium (Fs) alloys, U-Pu-Zr alloys, and U-molybdenum (Mo) alloys [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]. These small alloying additions are included to improve the material properties of the pure U metal. The alpha-phase U (stable below 661C) suffers elongation in one direction causing grain boundary cracking and increasing creep rate due to irradiation growth, thermal cycling, and preferential crystal orientation. It is ideal to utilize the gamma-phase U (typically stable above 769C) by adding small amounts of alloying elements such as Zr or Mo to stabilize this phase down to room temperature [3]. Additionally, some research has been focused on U with transuranic (TRU) elements present, typically coming from the used fuel recycling process. Including these elements in fast reactor fuel can aid in the reduction of nuclear waste by burning minor long-lived actinides. However, the additions of TRU elements can cause concerns to arise when trying to fabrication or safeguard metallic fuels. A typical metallic fuel element is shown in Figure 1. Sodium is added into the cladding to create a thermal bond between the fuel slug and cladding wall. The fuel slug is then inserted and the end plug is welded on to the top of the fuel element. A gas plenum is left to create a headspace for gaseous fission products to escape rather than continue to build in the fuel itself [1, 5]. Other fuel element geometries exist as well, such as the Lightbridge twisted cruciform geometry shown in Figure 2 [6]. This design allows for better cooling performance and provides room for fuel rod swelling without impacting the fuel rod diameter. There are many different fabrication methods for metallic fuels, which is one of the many benefits of these fuel types. Many of these fabrication methods are relatively easy and cost-efficient. The most popular fabrication method is injection casting, sometimes called vacuum induction melting (VIM), shown in Figure 3 [4, 8, 9, 7, 10]. This method was largely used for EBR-II fuel fabrication. The injection casting system is contained inside of a vessel consisting of a Y2O3-coated graphite crucible surrounded by an induction coil with ZrO2-coated quartz molds suspended above the crucible. The fuel feedstock is placed inside of the graphite crucible and melted using the induction furnace. The induction furnace utilizes a dual frequency with the high frequency melting the feedstock and the low frequency causing stirring of the melted feedstock to form a homogeneous mixture. The mixture is heated to approximately 1600C in an argon environment. The vessel is evacuated and then the quartz molds are lowered into the graphite crucible containing the molten metal and the vessel is repressurized to inject the metal fuel upwards into the molds. The molds are removed and then shattered to release the fuel slugs. This fabrication method was used to fabricate 39,000 metallic fuel pins for EBR-II. While injection casting has been the most common metallic fuel fabrication method throughout the decades, many other methods have been explored including low-pressure gravity casting, microwave casting, continuous casting, centrifugal casting, coextrusion, and many others [11, 12, 8, 13, 14, 15]. Some of these methods aim to mitigate challenges that arise with americium (Am) volatilization during the casting process for TRU-containing fuel feedstocks, an issue with injection casting. Coextrusion is one of the methods explored at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and has been utilized for the initial fabrication tests of Lightbridge's unique fuels, as well as other metallic fuels with cladding coextruded. In this process, large billets are formed and machined and then inserted into a molten salt bath for approximately 30 minutes. The billets are then loaded into the extrusion press and extruded. This process can be seen in Figure 4 [15].

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

LLM Generation of Online Courses from a Curated Set of Documents in the Nuclear Safeguards Domain

A multidisciplinary team at Argonne National Laboratory explores the application of advanced technologies to enhance knowledge transfer and retention within the nuclear safeguards domain. Specifically, it examines the feasibility of leveraging secure large language models (LLMs) to streamline the creation of e-learning modules for the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Office of International Nuclear Safeguards (NA-241). The initiative addresses the critical need for preserving institutional memory and accelerating skill development amidst the imminent retirement of senior professionals in the field in addition to supporting good knowledge management practices. The project integrates instructional design theory with cutting-edge AI technologies to transform curated document sets from the Safeguards Knowledge Repository (SKR) into modular online courses. By automating the generation of learning objectives and instructional content, the effort aims to reduce manual effort while maintaining high-quality educational outcomes. A limited measure of human supervision, however, ensures accuracy, relevance, and alignment with NNSA’s strategic priorities. Key findings highlight the potential of AI-assisted course generation to support safeguards professionals by creating structured, interactive learning experiences. The report underscores the importance of SME validation to address limitations in AI-generated content, such as terminology errors and gaps in coverage. Recommendations include adopting a structured workflow combining LLM acceleration with expert oversight to ensure accuracy, usability, and alignment with learner needs. This work demonstrates Argonne’s commitment to advancing national security and scientific excellence through innovative knowledge management solutions.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION

Refining a Novel Process Monitoring Method to Safeguard Continuously Cycling Designs Using Isotopic Ratios

In advanced reactor (AR) designs, a common feature is continuous chemical processing and circulation of the nuclear material. This work bridges a significant measurement gap in safeguarding reactors with circulating fuel or continuous refueling by leveraging and building on the isotope ratio method first developed by our team under an FY21 Advanced Reactors International Safeguards Engagement (ARISE) project (Uribe et al. 2021). In circulating fuel designs, the radioisotope inventory changes from traditional effects (e.g., radioactive decay, fission) but also includes material transport due to pressure and temperature gradients. Such designs may also require regular or continuous additions or removals during operation, which significantly increases the rate of inventory change compared to traditional pressurized water reactor (PWR)s. Thus, directly tracking the nuclear inventory is ineffective since the isotopes are continuously added and removed. The isotope ratio method instead focuses on detecting changes to the input and output flows of radioisotopes. Previous work showed that for well-chosen pairs of isotopes, the isotopic ratio provides a sensitive and lasting indicator of deviation from normal conditions (e.g., startup, shutdown, diversion). The isotope ratio method is a process monitoring method with potential for application in for forward-looking approaches to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. The original process monitoring method was developed for a specific case—the decay tank of a thorium-fueled molten salt breeder reactor. In this expanded work, we explored other types of reactors and processes with nonstationary (e.g., flowing) nuclear material, which are difficult to safeguard with traditional methods because of the transient nature of the systems. The goal of the present work is to generalize the isotope ratio method for use in processes with continuously flowing nuclear material. All continuous processes have an average time for isotopes to be replaced in the system. The isotope ratio method works by choosing radioisotopes with half-lives both above and below the processing time. The present work seeks to explore which isotopes are suitable for the method by simulating the nuclear inventory, radioisotope emissions, and detector responses for several classes of advanced reactors. While the method can in principle be applied to other processes (e.g., enrichment or reprocessing facilities), the present work limits scope to ARs with continuously flowing fuel. Section 2 details the mathematics supporting the isotope ratio method, and Section 3 introduces the representative ARs selected for this work. Section 4 discusses how each reactor was analyzed, and Section 5 showcases the results for each representative reactor. Finally, Section 6 provides concluding remarks and suggests pathways for further analysis.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P

Advanced Facility Design and AI/ML Enabled Safeguards to Establish Secure, Economical Recycling of Fast Reactor Fuels (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The project, "Advanced Facility Design and AI/ML Enabled Safeguards to Establish Secure, Economical Recycling of Fast Reactor Fuels," represents a significant advancement in nuclear fuel recycling technology. It integrates cutting-edge multimodal sensor fusion, machine learning (ML), and digital twin (DT) technologies to address challenges in material safeguarding, process optimization, and regulatory compliance for pyroprocessing facilities. This research has significantly enhanced the understanding of pyrochemical fuel recycling processes by developing innovative tools and methodologies. The Multimodal Safeguards Monitoring Unit (MSMU) combines electroanalytical techniques, Raman spectroscopy, and differential thermal analysis (DTA) to enable high-fidelity, near-real-time material accountancy measurements. Machine learning techniques, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) autoencoders, are utilized to detect anomalies in material balances and sensor data, improving the reliability of safeguards monitoring. Additionally, digital twin technology has been established to provide real-time system-level monitoring and diagnostics, integrating physics-based models with sensor data to optimize process safety and efficiency.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

New NDA Methods for Thorium Fuel Cycle Safeguards (Final Report)

This project developed portable Neutron Resonance Transmission Analysis (pNRTA) as a new non-destructive assay (NDA) method for thorium fuel cycles safeguards and other applications where multiple isotopes must be measured when present together. pNRTA leverages epithermal neutron resonances to assay multiple safeguards-relevant isotopes (e.g., 233 U and 235 U) when they are present together in a sample. Existing techniques are challenged by this task, driving the need for new active interrogation methods. With selected detectors, pNRTA works in high gamma-ray backgrounds from fission and activation products and 232 U progeny expected in thorium fuel cycle samples. This project leveraged a pNRTA system developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and collaboration with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The system uses a commercially available deuterium-tritium (DT) neutron generator at short standoff (2 m). Key achievements in this project included: first-of-a-kind pNRTA quantitative measurements of 233 U oxide samples, an assessment of neutron detector technologies suitable for pNRTA in high gamma-ray background environments, experimentally demonstrating quantitative assay of samples containing 233 U and 235 U, and modeling studies showing the applicability of pNRTA to a wide range of material forms. Further, a custom algorithm was developed at MIT, which provided mean bias of 9% and relative standard deviation of 36% in assaying 233 U, 235 U, 238 U, and 232 Th content in eight measured samples. These outcomes form a solid technical basis for pNRTA as a new promising capability for international safeguards verification that is portable, non-destructive, quantitative, and isotopic specific.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Bubbler Design Updates for Nuclear Safeguards Applications

The accurate monitoring of molten salt compositions is crucial for nuclear safeguards, particularly in the context of mixtures used in molten salt reactors as well as pyroprocessing. However, for nuclear material accountancy in actinide bearing molten salts, the solution volume is also needed to determine the total mass of material in the salt. This study explores the effectiveness of two bubbler configurations, triple and single, for density and level measurements within these molten salts for salt volume determinations. The triple bubbler system utilizes three gas dip-tubes strategically positioned at different heights within the molten salt. With this design, the molten salt level, density, and surface tension can be determined simultaneously. The single bubbler configuration, on the other hand, relies on a dynamic single dip-tube to determine the density and level. Both configurations will be tested in aqueous solutions as well as in LiCl-KCl and NaCl-MgCl2 molten salts between 450°C and 750°C. Dip-tube diameters and bubbler inferences will also be explored. A new bubbler is being designed based on results. The findings of this study will provide valuable insights into the optimal bubbler design and configuration for ensuring representative sampling of molten salt compositions in nuclear safeguards applications. This will contribute to enhanced accountability and transparency in the monitoring of actinide bearing molten salts, promoting nuclear safeguards objectives.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Modeling and Simulation Supporting Material Control and Accounting for Advanced Reactors: Task 2: Safeguards Modeling and Simulation Assessment

Commercial interest in advanced reactors for power production in the United States is increasing. A variety of advanced reactor designs are being developed, and many of them use non-traditional fuel forms. Therefore, the material control and accounting (MC&A) methods that will be required for these advanced reactor systems also need to be developed to ensure that the necessary safeguards are implemented. To provide information that can be leveraged to explore different MC&A approaches, three representative advanced reactor types were evaluated from a technical safeguards perspective. These reactor designs were selected to encompass common materials and configurations that could affect safeguards considerations. The three designs evaluated were a molten salt reactor (MSR), a gas-cooled reactor (GCR), and a heat pipe-cooled microreactor.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Application of a Triple Bubbler Inside Molten Salt for Pyroprocessing Safeguards Purposes

The application of a triple bubbler system within molten salt environments, specifically a eutectic mixture of LiCl-KCl, is explored for nuclear safeguards purposes, focusing on nuclear material accountancy (NMA) and holdup accountancy in pyroprocessing techniques. Traditional holdup accountancy methods, which involve periodic sampling and lengthy lead times, are being supplemented by the development of actinide sensors using electrochemistry. However, these methods alone are insufficient to meet regulatory requirements set by agencies like NRC and IAEA. The triple bubbler device measures salt level, density, and surface tension simultaneously using three dip tubes of varying diameters and heights. This study investigates the accuracy and robustness of the triple bubbler in molten salt conditions at temperatures ranging from 450-550°C. The updated bubbler design, utilizing tantalum metal and larger tube geometry, demonstrated minimal plugging and maintained measurement accuracy within acceptable uncertainties: 0.611% for depth, 1.34% for density, and approximately 40% for surface tension. Results indicate that the triple bubbler system is effective for real-time, accurate measurements in pyroprocessing environments, making it a promising tool for ensuring compliance with nuclear safeguards and supporting nuclear non-proliferation efforts.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Field Testing of Safeguards Technologies in the Hot Fuel Examination Facility

Recent developments in nuclear fuel reprocessing techniques have yielded more efficient processes and fuel cycle options that strengthen the nuclear industry and production of clean energy. One such area of interest is pyroprocessing of used oxide fuel. However, with these advances in the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, advances in safeguards instrumentation, measurements, and approaches are needed to ensure special nuclear material (SNM) is accounted for according to regulatory requirements. As a high-level overview of a nominal pyroprocessing approach, used oxide fuel from commercial light water reactors (LWR) is mechanically removed from the metallic cladding. Then the fuel is crushed and randomized representative samples are taken and sent to an analytical lab for analysis. The analytical results of the feed material are used for input accountancy into the rest of the process. The crushed oxide fuel is then moved to the oxide reduction (OR) furnace where it is reduced from an oxide to metallic form. The OR product is distilled to remove salt and then moved to an electrorefiner (ER), where it is immersed in a eutectic mixture of lithium chloride potassium chloride (LiCl-KCl) that typically ranges between 450-550 ?. Within the ER, the usable uranium is electrochemically transported through the molten salt from the anode to the cathode, and then subsequently removed as a relatively pure U product.. A simplified model of pyroprocessing techniques with added emphasis on the safeguards can be seen below in Fig. 1

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

MPACT Safeguards Modeling: FY25 Update

Sandia National Laboratories develops and maintains several open-source software packages to support material accountancy analyses. This includes the Material Accountancy Performance Indicator Toolkit (MAPIT), the Fissile Facility Flow Modeler (F3M) and the Separation and Safeguards Performance Model Library (SSPM-L). MAPIT is responsible for performing statistical safeguards analyses on bulk and itemized data from nuclear fuel cycle facilities and can operate on real or synthetic data. MAPIT is the only open-source software for such analyses. F3M is a library of modules, built in MATLAB Simulink, that contain pre made blocks to represent different generic fuel cycle processes. These blocks can be used together in a modular fashion to represent and simulate nuclear fuel cycle processes with the goal of improving facility-level accountancy during the design phase. F3M is also an open-source library. Finally, the SSPM-L library is a series of completed models built from F3M. The library includes facility models such as a generic PUREX facility and a fuel fabrication facility. The SSPM-L library is not open source, but is available to collaborators with a relevant use case. These tools include modeling and simulation pipelines to simulate nuclear fuel cycle facilities and the underlying software needed to simulate measurement uncertainty and perform statistical analyses. Together, these tools can perform end-to-end nuclear material accountancy analyses. This report documents the various improvements made to these tools in FY25. Specifically, we added new statistical test, new statistical modeling capabilities, new fuel cycle facility models, and launched a new open-source model component library.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Non-invasive Pipe Pressure Monitoring for Safeguards

Our project explores a new solution to complement current safeguards toolbox by independently, and noninvasively, determining the pressure inside uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 )-carrying Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plant (GCEP) pipes. Proof-of-principle, non-invasive pipe pressure monitoring tests were conducted through measurements of hoop and axial strain using an optical-interference dilatometry technique based on fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) inscribed in the core of telecommunication-type 125 µm diameter optical fibers. The fibers were affixed to commercial stainless steel and aluminum tubes and pipes of the type expected to be found at GCEP’s, each measuring four inches in diameter. When the internal air pressure in the pipes changes their external diameter and length follow, and the pitch in the FBG shrinks and/or expands accordingly. In turn, these changes result in a shift of the light wavelength reflected by the FBGs. Several FBGs physically attached to the pipe, as well as control FBGs not attached, were interrogated during the process using state-of-the-art commercial interrogators that operate on swept-wavelength laser technology. Strains measured were contrasted against calculations based on the known elastic and mechanical properties of the pipes. Good agreement is found, and strategies are proposed for further improvement of the experimental resolution as well as future implementation of this novel approach for GCEP safeguards.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Assessment of Self-interrogation Safeguards Signatures for Pebble Bed Reactor Fuel

New reactor designs, such as pebble-bed reactors, present challenges for the safeguarding of fissile material. Due to the multi-pass fuel circulation design and the non-uniform path a pebble may traverse through a pebble-bed reactor, there will be variations in the irradiation history of spent fuel pebbles. The standard approach of estimating actinide quantities based on fission gamma spectra or neutron emission paired with depletion modeling may yield uncertainties too large for safeguards and material accountancy. This project investigated, through modeling and experimentation, the potential of neutron self-interrogation of spent fuel pebbles as an innovative method to implement materials accountability. As an example, our feasibility studies indicate that the mass of U-235, U-238, Pu-239 and Pu-241 can be predicted to 4.1, 0.86, 13 and 13 % accuracy, respectively, when measuring 100 closely packed end-of-life spent fuel pebbles over approximately 12 days using a 4π counting geometry.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

NASA guidelines for assuring the adequacy and appropriateness of security safeguards in sensitive applications

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Circular A-71, transmittal Memorandum No. 1, requires that each agency establish a management control process to assure that appropriate administrative, physical and technical safeguards are incorporated into all new computer applications. In addition to security specifications, the management control process should assure that the safeguards are adequate for the application. The security activities that should be integral to the system development process are examined. The software quality assurance process to assure that adequate and appropriate controls are incorporated into sensitive applications is also examined. Security for software packages is also discussed.

Tompkins, F. G.

Validation and demonstration of the AEFC as a practical safeguards tool for inventory verification

The Advanced Experimental Fuel Counter (AEFC) is a nondestructive assay (NDA) instrument designed to determine the residual fissile mass in irradiated fuel assemblies for safeguards verification purposes. This is done by actively interrogating an assembly with a neutron source and measuring the total (Singles) and correlated (Doubles) neutron count rates resulting from induced fissions in the irradiated nuclear fuel and relating those rates to the residual fissile mass using calibration curves. Comprehensive NDA measurements of the irradiated fuel inventory at Israeli Research Reactor 1 (IRR-1) were taken with the AEFC to validate a set of previously developed calibration curves. During the campaign, measurements were acquired of 32 standard fuel assemblies and three control assemblies in just nine days. This is a significant majority of the research reactor's irradiated fuel inventory and the largest data set gathered by the AEFC to date. Many of the fuel assemblies measured during the campaign had much shorter cooling times than those assemblies previously measured with the instrument. Calibration curves developed from previous AEFC deployments were used to determine the residual 235 U mass in the measured standard fuel assemblies. The results of the campaign demonstrated that the AEFC can be used to estimate the 235 U mass remaining in a large number of irradiated fuel assemblies with 1%–5% uncertainty in a reasonable amount of time despite operating in a high dose environment.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P