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Salton Sea Geothermal Development: Nontechnical Barriers to Entry – Analysis and Perspectives

Geothermal energy offers an opportunity to generate baseload, renewable energy that can help support the transition to an energy economy with reduced impacts on climate change and replace older, more expensive, nonrenewable, and more resource-impacting energy-generation facilities. The United States has the largest known geothermal resource in the world, with over 31 GW of conventional geothermal potential. However, due to market conditions, an inability to properly quantify both electrical grid benefits and resource stability, and the difficulty of exploring and developing the geothermal resource, few new geothermal projects have come online over the past three decades. The Salton Sea, in Imperial County, California, provides a prime location and opportunity to develop new geothermal resources. The Salton Sea contains a robust, well-mapped, geothermal resource, with opportunities for concurrent development of lithium and other mineral resources. This report describes the history of geothermal development at the Salton Sea and compares geothermal to other renewable energy sources in the area. The report then uses a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model to analyze the relative benefits and costs of various challenges and opportunities and provides recommendations for streamlining geothermal development at the Salton Sea and elsewhere. The challenges and opportunities analyzed in the TEA model were informed by stakeholder interviews and literature reviews. Based upon the identified challenges and opportunities and the results of the TEA model, primary findings are that certain nontechnical barriers such as permitting costs play only a minor role in determining the viability of development of the geothermal resource at the Salton Sea. Other barriers such as permitting timelines, government/agency coordination, and the potential co-location of lithium extraction with a geothermal plant may result in much larger impacts on project viability.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Characterization of Li in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field

Abstract The behavior of lithium during geothermal brine and host-rock interactions in the Salton Sea geothermal field is underconstrained. The lithium brine reservoir inventory is between 4 and 18 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, with an even larger amount present within the reservoir rock mineral phases. Here, we present bulk-rock and brine Li concentration and δ7Li, and in situ Li concentrations of minerals from the California State 2-14 scientific drill core and commercial wells in the Salton Sea geothermal field to identify the mineral hosts of Li and constrain Li behavior during brine-rock interactions. Lithium contents are highest in chlorite (270–580 ppm, ~2,358 m), which encases pyrite, indicating that Li is fixed from the brine into the host rocks during hydrothermal alteration. Lithium abundances in chlorite decrease with depth (70–100 ppm, ~2,882 m), as does whole-rock Li content, whereas whole-rock δ7Li increases (δ7Li = 2.0–4.3‰, ~2,485-m depth; δ7Li = 4.3–7.9‰ from ~2,819 to ~2,882 m). This change in behavior of Li at ~2,500 m suggests temperature dependent partitioning of Li in chlorite; Li becomes more incompatible in chlorite at depths >~2,500 m, corresponding to ~325°C in the reservoir. The brines have δ7Li = 3.7 to 4.7‰ and calculated isotopic fractionation factors between the brine and the host rock agree with a change in Li behavior at ~325°C. Simple closed-system batch modeling does not describe the geothermal system, suggesting open-system behavior of Li within the Salton Sea geothermal field.

Humphreys, J↗

Induced seismicity and geothermal energy production in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field, California

We analyze the relationship between geothermal energy production and seismic hazards in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF) between 1972 and 2022. A clear increase in seismic activity accompanies geothermal energy production and is greatest to the east of the Brawley fault, where the amount of injection exceeds the amount of production. We estimate that, whereas there was a 2% chance of a M6.07 earthquake nucleating inside the SSGF within a fifty-year period prior to energy production (pre-production), there is an equal probability that a M6.70 earthquake nucleates there in a fifty-year period during which historically average energy production conditions persist (syn-production). Similarly, we estimate a 2% chance of a M7.15 and M6.92 occurring in the broader Brawley Seismic Zone (excluding the SSGF) within a fifty-year period during the pre- and syn-production eras, respectively. We find that linear regression models fail to reliably forecast the background seismicity rate as a function of fluid production and injection.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Pathways to cost competitive and viable lithium production from Salton Sea geothermal brines

Lithium supply chains remain heavily concentrated in hard rock and brine resources, creating significant supply risks. Geothermal brines represent an underutilized alternative, yet commercial progress is hindered by the absence of facility-scale cost assessments. Here, we present a techno-economic analysis of large-scale lithium extraction from Salton Sea geothermal brines, drawing on primary company disclosures, process patents, and brine resource modeling. Caused by varying lithium and impurity concentrations, brine dilution over time, and process configurations (e.g., production via carbonation and conversion vs. electrolysis), we find that large-scale production costs may reach ~10,000 United States dollars per ton, but increase up to 22,000 United States dollars per ton with higher certainty of brine modeling, raising concerns about economic competitiveness to conventional low-cost sources. Finally, a project feasibility-focused scenario analyses shows that leveraging brine pre-treatment by-product sales could lower long-term lithium break-even prices by ~5,000 United States dollars per ton, whereas capital cost optimization of 20% could further reduce lithium break-even prices by 10%.

Wesselkaemper, Jannis↗

Characterizing the Geothermal Lithium Resource at the Salton Sea

The energy transition towards a more sustainable and renewable future is a pivotal global endeavor. Central to this shift for the United States is the critical role of domestically sourced lithium, a key mineral in the production of high-performance batteries essential for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage systems. This has driven the United States to invest heavily in a domestic supply chain for batterygrade lithium to enhance energy security, reduce supply chain vulnerabilities, and foster economic growth by tapping into local resources. A notable example is the Biden Administration’s “American Battery Materials Initiative,” which was included in the $2.8-billion Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (The White House, 2022).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

SSGF Mineral Major Elements and Lithium Concentration

Presented are major element and lithium concentrations of minerals from the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF), located in the Imperial Valley, California. With a recent increase in demand for lithium, the area is now being studied as a source of geothermal brine for lithium extraction. This study was performed to help quantify lithium storage in the SSGF brine and surrounding minerals. Rocks and brines sampled in this study are from surface rhyolitic domes on the South Eastern shore of the Salton Sea, the sedimentary and evaporitic rocks in the Durmid Hills, rhyolitic drill clippings previously studied by Schmitt & Hulen, commercial drill wells, and CA State 2-14 well.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Technology for the Recovery of Lithium from Geothermal Brines

Lithium is the principal component of high-energy-density batteries and is a critical material necessary for the economy and security of the United States. Brines from geothermal power production have been identified as a potential domestic source of lithium; however, lithium-rich geothermal brines are characterized by complex chemistry, high salinity, and high temperatures, which pose unique challenges for economic lithium extraction. The purpose of this paper is to examine and analyze direct lithium extraction technology in the context of developing sustainable lithium production from geothermal brines. In this paper, we are focused on the challenges of applying direct lithium extraction technology to geothermal brines; however, applications to other brines (such as coproduced brines from oil wells) are considered. The most technologically advanced approach for direct lithium extraction from geothermal brines is adsorption of lithium using inorganic sorbents. Other separation processes include extraction using solvents, sorption on organic resin and polymer materials, chemical precipitation, and membrane-dependent processes. The Salton Sea geothermal field in California has been identified as the most significant lithium brine resource in the US and past and present efforts to extract lithium and other minerals from Salton Sea brines were evaluated. Extraction of lithium with inorganic molecular sieve ion-exchange sorbents appears to offer the most immediate pathway for the development of economic lithium extraction and recovery from Salton Sea brines. Other promising technologies are still in early development, but may one day offer a second generation of methods for direct, selective lithium extraction. Initial studies have demonstrated that lithium extraction and recovery from geothermal brines are technically feasible, but challenges still remain in developing an economically and environmentally sustainable process at scale.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

4.3.1.1 TCF: Recovery of Lithium from Geothermal Brine with Lithium-Aluminum Layered Double Hydroxide Chloride Sorbents

Lithium has gained importance as a near-critical element for various energy storage applications, and efforts are ongoing to develop simple and cost-effective methods for lithium recovery. For instance, in a typical 50 MW geothermal power plant in the Salton Sea, United States, approximately 15,000 metric tons of Li 2 CO 3 or LiOH salts can be produced annually by recovering and converting LiCl from geothermal plant waste solutions. Currently, approximately 390 MW of geothermal power is generated in the Salton Sea Known Geothermal Resource Area, which corresponds to potential Li 2 CO 3 production of approximately 120,000 metric tons per year. This makes lithium recovery from geothermal brines a promising, potentially low-cost source of lithium, contributing significantly to the global supply chain.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Using Dark Fiber and Distributed Acoustic Sensing to Characterize a Geothermal System in the Imperial Valley, Southern California

The Imperial Valley, CA, is a tectonically active transtensional basin located south of the Salton Sea; the area hosts numerous geothermal fields, including significant hidden hydrothermal resources without surface manifestations. Development of inexpensive, rugged, and highly sensitive exploration techniques for undiscovered geothermal systems is critical for accelerating geothermal power deployment as well as unlocking a low-carbon energy future. We present a case study utilizing distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) and ambient noise interferometry for geothermal reservoir imaging, utilizing unlit fiber-optic telecommunication infrastructure (dark fiber). The study exploits two days of passive DAS data acquired in early November 2020 over a ~28-km section of fiber from Calipatria, CA to Imperial, CA. We apply ambient noise interferometry to retrieve coherent signals from DAS records and develop a bin stacking technique to attenuate the effects from persistent localized noise sources and to enhance retrieval of coherent surface waves. As a result, we are able to obtain high-resolution two-dimensional (2D) S wave velocity ($V_s$) structure to 3 km depth, based on joint inversion of both the fundamental and higher overtones. We observe a previously unmapped high $V_s$ and low $V_p$/$V_s$ ratio feature beneath the Brawley geothermal system, which we interpret to be a zone of hydrothermal mineralization and lower porosity. This interpretation is consistent with a host of other measurements including surface heat flow, gravity anomalies, and available borehole wireline data. These results demonstrate the potential utility of DAS deployed on dark fiber for geothermal system exploration and characterization in the appropriate geological settings.

Vp/Vs imaging↗

DEEPEN Global Standardized Categorical Exploration Datasets for Magmatic Plays

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. As part of the development of the DEEPEN 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) methodology for magmatic plays (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical), weights needed to be developed for use in the weighted sum of the different favorability index models produced from geoscientific exploration datasets. This was done using two different approaches: one based on expert opinions, and one based on statistical learning. This GDR submission includes the datasets used to produce the statistical learning-based weights. While expert opinions allow us to include more nuanced information in the weights, expert opinions are subject to human bias. Data-centric or statistical approaches help to overcome these potential human biases by focusing on and drawing conclusions from the data alone. The drawback is that, to apply these types of approaches, a dataset is needed. Therefore, we attempted to build comprehensive standardized datasets mapping anomalies in each exploration dataset to each component of each play. This data was gathered through a literature review focused on magmatic hydrothermal plays along with well-characterized areas where superhot or supercritical conditions are thought to exist. Datasets were assembled for all three play types, but the hydrothermal dataset is the least complete due to its relatively low priority. For each known or assumed resource, the dataset states what anomaly in each exploration dataset is associated with each component of the system. The data is only a semi-quantitative, where values are either high, medium, or low, relative to background levels. In addition, the dataset has significant gaps, as not every possible exploration dataset has been collected and analyzed at every known or suspected geothermal resource area, in the context of all possible play types. The following training sites were used to assemble this dataset: - Conventional magmatic hydrothermal: Akutan (from AK PFA), Oregon Cascades PFA, Glass Buttes OR, Mauna Kea (from HI PFA), Lanai (from HI PFA), Mt St Helens Shear Zone (from WA PFA), Wind River Valley (From WA PFA), Mount Baker (from WA PFA). - Superhot EGS: Newberry (EGS demonstration project), Coso (EGS demonstration project), Geysers (EGS demonstration project), Eastern Snake River Plain (EGS demonstration project), Utah FORGE, Larderello, Kakkonda, Taupo Volcanic Zone, Acoculco, Krafla. - Supercritical: Coso, Geysers, Salton Sea, Larderello, Los Humeros, Taupo Volcanic Zone, Krafla, Reyjanes, Hengill. **Disclaimer: Treat the supercritical fluid anomalies with skepticism. They are based on assumptions due to the general lack of confirmed supercritical fluid encounters and samples at the sites included in this dataset, at the time of assembling the dataset. The main assumption was that the supercritical fluid in a given geothermal system has shared properties with the hydrothermal fluid, which may not be the case in reality. Once the datasets were assembled, principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to each. PCA is an unsupervised statistical learning technique, meaning that labels are not required on the data, that summarized the directions of variance in the data. This approach was chosen because our labels are not certain, i.e., we do not know with 100% confidence that superhot resources exist at all the assumed positive areas. We also do not have data for any known non-geothermal areas, meaning that it would be challenging to apply a supervised learning technique. In order to generate weights from the PCA, an analysis of the PCA loading values was conducted. PCA loading values represent how much a feature is contributing to each principal component, and therefore the overall variance in the data.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Assessment of Economic Impact of Permitting Timelines on Produced Geothermal Power in Imperial County, California

Despite having a large geothermal power potential in the United States, only a small fraction has been developed for power generation. Various barriers, including technical, financial, and regulatory permit delays, are attributed to lower contribution of geothermal energy in the national grid. Unpredictable environmental reviews and permitting timelines are some of the non-technical barriers that can cause delays in geothermal exploration and utilization plans. Our study shows that the geothermal permitting timelines can vary from six months to several years, depending on the presence or absence of biological resources, cultural resources, and sensitive environmental issues at the project site. The potential impacts of these permit barriers can range from investors abandoning geothermal development to making the product (i.e., electricity) more expensive and uncompetitive. In this study, we conducted economic analysis to assess the impact of permitting timelines on cost of produced electricity from geothermal resources using data from existing geothermal plants as well as prospective sites. In this paper, we present collected timelines data, approach, and results of economic impact of permitting timelines on geothermal power. We evaluated the various environmental management and permit review processes by considering a hypothetical geothermal project in the Salton Sea Known Geothermal Resource Area. Because of the variety of the biological and environmental issues and the involvement of local, state, and federal agencies with overlapping jurisdictions, this project could go through one of the many California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) review scenarios that range from the least to the most complex in its circumstances. The fastest CEQA/NEPA review timelines would have the project completed in six years. In contrast, the project would substantially need longer time to complete if it were located in an area with significant environmental resources or cultural issues that required permitting from various agencies. With increasing project completion timelines, the simplified levelized cost of electricity (sLCOE) can be 4 to 11% higher with longer CEQA/NEPA review timelines than the sLCOE value with the fastest CEQA/NEPA review timeline. Lengthier CEQA/NEPA review timelines could also result in loss of $64 million to $227 million in potential revenue. Such significant economic impacts could determine the success of a geothermal project.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Environmental Impact Assessment of Lithium Recovery from Geothermal Brines in the SS-KGRA: An Overview

There is increasing interest in securing a reliable, domestic source of lithium in the United States to support an electrified grid and energy secure future. The Salton Sea Known Geothermal Resource Area (SS-KGRA) has garnered attention for this purpose due to the abundance of lithium in brines brought to the surface for geothermal energy production in this region. Geothermal production from this field is already expected to grow from the current 400 MWe to 920 MWe in the next 3-4 years with a potential total geothermal capacity in the region estimated at nearly 2,950 MWe. With this growth, there is potential for construction and operation of new direct lithium recovery and processing facilities to meet domestic demands for lithium. In this work, we estimate the potential impact of geothermal expansion and lithium extraction in the SS-KGRA on water use, direct air emissions from facilities, and solid waste production and management.

Busse, MM↗

Economic Impact of Permitting Timelines on Produced Geothermal Power

Despite having a large geothermal power potential in the United States, only a small fraction has been developed for power generation. Various barriers, including technical, financial, and regulatory permit delays, are attributed to lower contribution of geothermal energy in the national grid. Unpredictable environmental reviews and permitting timelines are some of the non-technical barriers that can cause delays in geothermal exploration and utilization plans. This study shows that the geothermal permitting timelines can vary from six months to several years, depending on the presence or absence of biological resources, cultural resources, and sensitive environmental issues at the project site. The potential impacts of these permit barriers can range from investors abandoning geothermal development to making the product (i.e., electricity) more expensive and uncompetitive.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Dataset for report: Non-Technical Barriers to Geothermal Development in California and Nevada

In California and Nevada, geothermal projects are subject to non-technical barriers, which may create development delays leading to higher project costs and risks and decreased competitiveness with other electricity generation technologies. These non-technical barriers may include federal and state permits, authorizations, environmental reviews, and other regulatory requirements that are applicable throughout different phases of geothermal project development. The 2022 National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) report, "Non-Technical Barriers to Geothermal Development in California and Nevada" presents findings of a study on non-technical barriers that may influence geothermal project development. The set of data resources relied upon for the report includes: 1) interviews conducted with relevant geothermal stakeholders including regulators and project developers, 2) federal and state environmental review documents developed for specific projects, 3) a techno-economic analysis conducted using the NREL Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) framework, and 4) an analysis of the impacts of site-specific land access and permitting considerations on project development readiness conducted using the Geothermal Resource Portfolio Optimization and Reporting Technique (GeoRePORT) Socioeconomic Assessment Tool (SEAT).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Solid Wastes from Geothermal Energy Production and Implications for Direct Lithium Extraction

Direct lithium extraction (DLE) of brines after geothermal power production offers opportunities to produce environmentally benign “green” lithium; however, some environmental impact is inevitable. We examined solid waste production at geothermal power plants in southern California that are also locations for planned DLE facilities. Currently, the geothermal plants in this region produce approximately 79,800 metric tons (wet weight) per year of solid waste, which represents about 28 metric tons per GWh of net electricity production or approximately 500 mg solids per kg geothermal brine. Approximately 15% of this waste requires management as hazardous waste. Solids produced during power production represent about 0.2% of the total dissolved solids in the brine. Lithium production will require the removal of silica, iron, and other metals as part of the DLE process. Using a mass balance approach, we calculate that precipitation of silica and metals could produce up to an additional 6800 mg solids per kg brine. Calcium occurs at very high concentrations, and the amount of solids disposed in landfills will be dependent on the amount of calcium removed during lithium recovery. Our analysis shows that evaluation of brine chemistry in the context of the DLE process is useful for evaluating the potential solid waste impacts of producing lithium from brines.

42 ENGINEERING↗