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At least 19 records

Volcano infrasound: progress and future directions

Over the past two decades (2000–2020), volcano infrasound (acoustic waves with frequencies less than 20 Hz propagating in the atmosphere) has evolved from an area of academic research to a useful monitoring tool. As a result, infrasound is routinely used by volcano observatories around the world to detect, locate, and characterize volcanic activity. It is particularly useful in confirming subaerial activity and monitoring remote eruptions, and it has shown promise in forecasting paroxysmal activity at open-vent systems. Fundamental research on volcano infrasound is providing substantial new insights on eruption dynamics and volcanic processes and will continue to do so over the next decade. The increased availability of infrasound sensors will expand observations of varied eruption styles, and the associated increase in data volume will make machine learning workflows more feasible. More sophisticated modeling will be applied to examine infrasound source and propagation effects from local to global distances, leading to improved infrasound-derived estimates of eruption properties. Future work will use infrasound to detect, locate, and characterize moving flows, such as pyroclastic density currents, lahars, rockfalls, lava flows, and avalanches. Infrasound observations will be further integrated with other data streams, such as seismic, ground- and satellite-based thermal and visual imagery, geodetic, lightning, and gas data. The volcano infrasound community should continue efforts to make data and codes accessible and to improve diversity, equity, and inclusion in the field. In summary, the next decade of volcano infrasound research will continue to advance our understanding of complex volcano processes through increased data availability, sensor technologies, enhanced modeling capabilities, and novel data analysis methods that will improve hazard detection and mitigation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

SIDM Concerto: Compilation and Data Release of Self-interacting Dark Matter Zoom-in Simulations

We present SIDM Concerto: 14 cosmological zoom-in simulations in cold dark matter (CDM) and self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) models based on the Symphony and Milky Way-est suites. SIDM Concerto includes one Large Magellanic Cloud– (LMC-) mass system (host mass ∼10 11 M ⊙ ), two Milky Way (MW) analogs (∼10 12 M ⊙ ), two group-mass hosts (∼10 13 M ⊙ ), and one low-mass cluster (∼10 14 M ⊙ ). Each host contains ≈2 × 10 7 particles and is run in CDM and one or more strong, velocity-dependent SIDM models. Our analysis of SIDM (sub)halo populations over seven subhalo mass decades reveals that (1) the fraction of core-collapsed isolated halos and subhalos peaks at a maximum circular velocity corresponding to the transition of the SIDM cross section from a v −4 to v 0 scaling; (2) SIDM subhalo mass functions are suppressed by ≈50% relative to CDM in LMC, MW, and group-mass hosts but are consistent with CDM in the low-mass cluster host; (3) subhalos’ inner density profile slopes, which are more diverse in SIDM than in CDM, are sensitive to both the amplitude and shape of the SIDM cross section. Our simulations provide a benchmark for testing SIDM predictions with astrophysical observations of field and satellite galaxies, strong lensing systems, and stellar streams. Data products are publicly available at doi:10.5281/zenodo.14933624.

dark matter↗

Data Integration and Visualization for Enhanced Resilience and Sustainability in Hydropower (DIVERS-H)

U.S. hydropower plants face potential threats from shrinking water supply, rising demands, and warmer stream temperatures from various causes. Power plant owners, operators, and regulators require new tools to take advantage of and interpret the diverse range of scientific data being produced by both observational methods (for example, satellite, radar, stream gauges) and computer modeling methods that evaluate and predict how earth's dynamic systems (atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and sea ice) are changing and interacting. Combining datasets such as these with AI-based analyses introduces a novel decision support system to help users anticipate and address potential impacts on power generation stations. This new technology has been named DIVERS-H for "Data Integration and Visualization for Enhanced Resilience and Sustainability in Hydropower." In Phase I, technical feasibility was established with the development and demonstration of all the new technologies that are required. Most notably, DIVERS-H will use new artificial intelligence (AI) methods to capture the complex dynamics of water availability, demand, and environmental changes. In addition, new data management software was developed, and a prototype user interface was implemented as the precursor to a full scale decision support system. With technical research complete, the project focus now shifts to development of a commercial software product to provide users with actionable insight into water availability and the risk/resilience of critical systems at their locations of interest. Although DIVER-H was originally conceived as a tool for hydroelectric power applications, the same underlying technology can be readily applied to other water-consuming systems including coal, natural gas, oil, and nuclear power plants.

Chaudhary, Aashish [Kitware, Inc., Clifton Park, N↗

Using heterogeneous data to identify signatures of dengue outbreaks at fine spatio-temporal scales across Brazil

Dengue virus remains a significant public health challenge in Brazil, and seasonal preparation efforts are hindered by variable intra- and interseasonal dynamics. Here, we present a framework for characterizing weekly dengue activity at the Brazilian mesoregion level from 2010–2016 as time series properties that are relevant to forecasting efforts, focusing on outbreak shape, seasonal timing, and pairwise correlations in magnitude and onset. In addition, we use a combination of 18 satellite remote sensing imagery, weather, clinical, mobility, and census data streams and regression methods to identify a parsimonious set of covariates that explain each time series property. The models explained 54% of the variation in outbreak shape, 38% of seasonal onset, 34% of pairwise correlation in outbreak timing, and 11% of pairwise correlation in outbreak magnitude. Regions that have experienced longer periods of drought sensitivity, as captured by the “normalized burn ratio,” experienced less intense outbreaks, while regions with regular fluctuations in relative humidity had less regular seasonal outbreaks. Both the pairwise correlations in outbreak timing and outbreak trend between mesoresgions were best predicted by distance. Our analysis also revealed the presence of distinct geographic clusters where dengue properties tend to be spatially correlated. Forecasting models aimed at predicting the dynamics of dengue activity need to identify the most salient variables capable of contributing to accurate predictions. Our findings show that successful models may need to leverage distinct variables in different locations and be catered to a specific task, such as predicting outbreak magnitude or timing characteristics, to be useful. This advocates in favor of “adaptive models” rather than “one-size-fits-all” models. The results of this study can be applied to improving spatial hierarchical or target-focused forecasting models of dengue activity across Brazil.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating LEO and GEO Observations: Toward Optimal Summertime Satellite Precipitation Retrieval

Abstract Reliable quantitative precipitation estimation with a rich spatiotemporal resolution is vital for understanding the Earth’s hydrological cycle. Precipitation estimation over land and coastal regions is necessary for addressing the high degree of spatial heterogeneity of water availability and demand, and for resolving the extremes that modulate and amplify hazards such as flooding and landslides. Advancements in computation power along with unique high spatiotemporal and spectral resolution data streams from passive meteorological sensors aboard geosynchronous Earth-orbiting (GEO) and low Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellites offer exciting opportunities to retrieve information about surface precipitation phenomena using data-driven machine learning techniques. In this study, the capabilities of U-Net–like architecture are investigated to map instantaneous, summertime surface precipitation intensity at the spatial resolution of 2 km. The calibrated brightness temperature products from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) radiometer are combined with multispectral images (visible, near-infrared, and infrared bands) from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard the GOES-R satellites as main inputs to the U-Net–like precipitation algorithm. Total precipitable water and 2-m temperature from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model are also used as auxiliary inputs to the model. The results show that the U-Net–like algorithm can capture fine-scale patterns and intensity of surface precipitation at high spatial resolution over stratiform and convective precipitation regimes. The evaluations reveal the potential of extracting relevant, high spatial features over complex surface types such as mountainous regions and coastlines. The algorithm allows users to interpret the inputs’ importance and can serve as a starting point for further exploration of precipitation systems within the field of hydrometeorology.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast—Part 2: Circulation, Boundary Layer, and Clouds

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) is a complex land-ocean-atmosphere system that experiences a wide range of atmospheric phenomena, which in turn drive unique aerosol transport pathways, cloud morphologies, and boundary layer variability. This work, Part 2 of a 2-part paper series, provides an overview of the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three-dimensional cloud structure, and precipitation over the WNAO; the companion paper (Part 1) focused on chemical characterization of aerosol, gas, and wet deposition. Seasonal changes in the circulation and sea surface temperature explain a clear transition in cloud morphologies from small shallow cumulus clouds, convective clouds, and tropical storms in summer, to stratus/stratocumulus and multi-layer cloud systems associated with winter storms. Synoptic variability in cloud fields is estimated using satellite-based weather states, and the role of postfrontal conditions (cold-air outbreaks) in the development of stratiform clouds is further analyzed. Precipitation is persistent over the ocean, with a regional peak over the Gulf Stream path, where offshore sea surface temperature gradients are large and surface fluxes reach a regional peak. Satellite data show a clear annual cycle in cloud droplet number concentration along the coast in winter, and minima in summer, suggesting a marked annual cycle in aerosol-cloud interactions. The performance of four climate models are assessed against satellite cloud retrievals. The models qualitatively reproduce the annual cycle in cloud cover and liquid water path, but with large discrepancies across models, especially in the extra-tropics. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding issues and recommendations for future work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cosmology of Sub-MeV Dark Matter Freeze-In

Dark matter (DM) could be a relic of freeze-in through a light mediator, where the DM is produced by extremely feeble, IR-dominated processes in the thermal standard model plasma. In the simplest viable models with DM lighter than 1 MeV, the DM has a small effective electric charge and is born with a nonthermal phase-space distribution. This DM candidate would cause observable departures from standard cosmological evolution. In this work, we combine data from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), Lyman-α forest, quasar lensing, stellar streams, and Milky Way satellite abundances to set limits on freeze-in DM masses up to ~20 keV, with the exact constraint depending on whether the DM thermalizes in its own sector. Further, we perform forecasts for the CMB-S4 experiment, the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array, and the Vera Rubin Observatory, finding that freeze-in DM masses up to ~80 keV can be explored.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

California wildfire spread derived using VIIRS satellite observations and an object-based tracking system

Changing wildfire regimes in the western US and other fire-prone regions pose considerable risks to human health and ecosystem function. However, our understanding of wildfire behavior is still limited by a lack of data products that systematically quantify fire spread, behavior and impacts. Here we develop a novel object-based system for tracking the progression of individual fires using 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire detections. At each half-daily time step, fire pixels are clustered according to their spatial proximity, and are either appended to an existing active fire object or are assigned to a new object. This automatic system allows us to update the attributes of each fire event, delineate the fire perimeter, and identify the active fire front shortly after satellite data acquisition. Using this system, we mapped the history of California fires during 2012–2020. Our approach and data stream may be useful for calibration and evaluation of fire spread models, estimation of near-real-time wildfire emissions, and as means for prescribing initial conditions in fire forecast models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TESS Hunt for Young and Maturing Exoplanets (THYME). IV. Three Small Planets Orbiting a 120 Myr Old Star in the Pisces–Eridanus Stream

Young exoplanets can offer insight into the evolution of planetary atmospheres, compositions, and architectures. We present the discovery of the young planetary system TOI 451 (TIC 257605131, Gaia DR2 4844691297067063424). TOI 451 is a member of the 120 Myr old Pisces–Eridanus stream (Psc–Eri). We confirm membership in the stream with its kinematics, its lithium abundance, and the rotation and UV excesses of both TOI 451 and its wide-binary companion, TOI 451 B (itself likely an M-dwarf binary). We identified three candidate planets transiting in the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite data and followed up the signals with photometry from Spitzer and ground-based telescopes. The system comprises three validated planets at periods of 1.9, 9.2, and 16 days, with radii of 1.9, 3.1, and 4.1 R {sub ⨂}, respectively. The host star is near-solar mass with V = 11.0 and H = 9.3 and displays an infrared excess indicative of a debris disk. The planets offer excellent prospects for transmission spectroscopy with the Hubble Space Telescope and the James Webb Space Telescope, providing the opportunity to study planetary atmospheres that may still be in the process of evolving.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The Milky Way’s stellar streams and globular clusters do not align in a Vast Polar Structure

ABSTRACT There is increasing evidence that a substantial fraction of Milky Way satellite galaxies align in a rotationally supported plane of satellites, a rare configuration in cosmological simulations of galaxy formation. It has been suggested that other Milky Way substructures (namely young halo globular clusters and stellar/gaseous streams) similarly tend to align with this plane, accordingly dubbed the Vast Polar Structure (VPOS). Using systemic proper motions inferred from Gaia data, we find that globular cluster orbital poles are not clustered in the VPOS direction, though the population with the highest VPOS membership fraction is the young halo clusters (∼30 per cent). We additionally provide a current census of stellar streams, including new streams discovered using the Dark Energy Survey and Gaia data sets, and find that stellar stream normals are also not clustered in the direction of the VPOS normal. We also find that, based on orbit modelling, there is a likely association between NGC 3201 and the Gjöll stellar stream and that, based on its orbital pole, NGC 4147 is likely not a Sagittarius globular cluster. That the Milky Way’s accreted globular clusters and streams do not align in the same planar configuration as its satellites suggests that the plane of satellites is either a particularly stable orbital configuration or a population of recently accreted satellites. Neither of these explanations is particularly likely in light of other recent studies, leaving the plane of satellites problem as one of the more consequential open problems in galaxy formation and cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Weakly supervised anomaly detection in the Milky Way

ABSTRACT Large-scale astrophysics data sets present an opportunity for new machine learning techniques to identify regions of interest that might otherwise be overlooked by traditional searches. To this end, we demonstrate how Classification Without Labels (CWoLa), a weakly supervised anomaly detection method, can help identify cold stellar streams within the more than one billion Milky Way stars observed by the Gaia satellite. CWoLa operates without the use of labelled streams or knowledge of astrophysical principles. Instead, it uses a classifier to distinguish between mixed samples for which the proportions of signal and background samples are unknown. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate that this computationally lightweight strategy is able to detect both simulated streams and the known stream GD-1 in data. Originally designed for high-energy collider physics, this technique may have broad applicability within astrophysics as well as other domains interested in identifying localized anomalies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fast Data Processing for Hyperspectral Sensors on Small Platforms

Hyperspectral imaging is a very promising technology for nuclear proliferation detection. However, due to size and weight restrictions, small hyperspectral platforms such as satellites and small drones lack the on-board computing resources for accurate, real-time analysis of the enormous flow of data that a continuously operating hyperspectral sensor generates. This severely limits satellite systems, which can collect far more data than what they can telemeter, and hinders the ability of all platforms to adapt their missions on the fly in response to observations. This program addresses the hyperspectral data processing challenge through development of new, fast and accurate algorithms that produce data products in real time. The algorithms circumvent the major computational bottlenecks in existing processing streams, and would be incorporated in lightweight, power-efficient single-board computer systems. The toolkit of fast algorithms will be immediately useful in current and future hyperspectral systems being built by the Government and by private industry, including drone-based systems and satellite constellations that acquire timely global imagery.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

HAIMOS Ensemble Forecasts for Intra-day and Day- Ahead GHI, DNI and Ramps

The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

MODAQ-BB (Modular Offshore Data Acquisition System - Blackbox) [SWR-24-72]

MODAQ-BB is a compact, rapid deployment data acquisition system that can withstand water depths up to 400m. Codenamed "BlackBox" (or simply BB), since its initial purpose was to track marine assets and record vital data streams that could later be recovered in the event of a mishap - much like a traditional black box used in aviation and shipping, the name has stuck. MODAQ BlackBox is a battery-operable microcontroller platform with internal inertial sensing, GPS, satellite communications, and additional I/O (input/output) support in a depth-rated pressure enclosure. Since BB is self-contained and relatively compact, it can be quickly deployed with minimal effort. The enclosure can be clamped to a tube (such as part of a railing) or mast in a location with unobstructed view of the sky using the available clamp accessory or a common hose clamp. While BB is designed to operate unattended, users can configure what data are uploaded and the frequency of satellite transmissions. Once data are uploaded, they can be relayed to an email distribution list, the MODAQ:Web operational dashboard, or a custom destination. BB has found utility in the National Laboratory of the Rockies' (NLR's) Waterpower projects beyond its original vision and has been configured and successfully deployed in more traditional data-gathering applications where a simple, battery-operated solution was indicated. As part of the MODAQ family, BB fills a space in the spectrum of missions that can be supported that were previously impractical using the traditional MODAQ hardware architecture due to factors such as weight, size, and cost.

Raye, Robert↗

Quantifying Variability and Controls of Riverine Dissolved Organic Carbon Exported to Arctic Coastal Margins of North America (Final Report)

This project involved implementation and application of a coupled permafrost hydrology and dissolved organic carbon process models to investigate how spatial and seasonal variations in terrestrial hydrology and soil freeze/thaw dynamics influence the mobilization, loading, and export of organic carbon to the stream network for selected arctic basins across northern Alaska and northwest Canada. The model simulations were constrained by detailed observations of in- stream chemistry, soil active layer profile moisture and temperature dynamics, streamflow, soil carbon inventories and satellite microwave remote sensing based assessments of surface soil freeze-thaw dynamics. We developed and applied the numerical modeling and data analysis, incorporating observed data for calibration and validation, in order to investigate the terrestrial hydrology, permafrost dynamics, and associated DOC production and loading to rivers across a region encompassing watersheds draining to the coast. The project produced six publications and three datasets archived in public repositories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Proximal remote sensing: an essential tool for bridging the gap between high‐resolution ecosystem monitoring and global ecology

Summary A new proliferation of optical instruments that can be attached to towers over or within ecosystems, or ‘proximal’ remote sensing, enables a comprehensive characterization of terrestrial ecosystem structure, function, and fluxes of energy, water, and carbon. Proximal remote sensing can bridge the gap between individual plants, site‐level eddy‐covariance fluxes, and airborne and spaceborne remote sensing by providing continuous data at a high‐spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we review recent advances in proximal remote sensing for improving our mechanistic understanding of plant and ecosystem processes, model development, and validation of current and upcoming satellite missions. We provide current best practices for data availability and metadata for proximal remote sensing: spectral reflectance, solar‐induced fluorescence, thermal infrared radiation, microwave backscatter, and LiDAR. Our paper outlines the steps necessary for making these data streams more widespread, accessible, interoperable, and information‐rich, enabling us to address key ecological questions unanswerable from space‐based observations alone and, ultimately, to demonstrate the feasibility of these technologies to address critical questions in local and global ecology.

Plant Sciences↗

The Amazon Water Cycle: Perspectives from Water Budget Closure and Ocean Salinity

Global and regional water cycle includes precipitation, water vapor divergence, and change of column water vapor in the atmosphere, and land surface evapotranspiration, terrestrial water storage change, and river discharge, which is linked to ocean salinity near the river mouth. The water cycle is a crucial component of the Earth system, and numerous studies have addressed its individual components (e.g., precipitation). Here we assess, for the first time, if remote sensing and reanalysis datasets can accurately and self-consistently portray the Amazon water cycle. This is further assisted with satellite ocean salinity measurements near the mouth of the Amazon River. The widely used practice of taking the mean of an ensemble of datasets to represent water cycle components (e.g., precipitation) can produce large biases in water cycle closure. Additionally, closure is achieved with only a small subset of data combinations (e.g., ERA5 precipitation and evapotranspiration plus GRACE satellite terrestrial water storage), which rules out the lower precipitation and higher evapotranspiration estimates, providing valuable constraints on assessments of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and their ratio. The common approach of using the Óbidos stream gauge (located hundreds of kilometers from the river mouth) multiplied by a constant (1.25) to represent the entire Amazon discharge is found to misrepresent the seasonal cycle, and this can affect the apparent influence of Amazon discharge on tropical Atlantic salinity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Hidden depths in the local Universe: The Stellar Stream Legacy Survey

Context. Mergers and tidal interactions between massive galaxies and their dwarf satellites are a fundamental prediction of the Lambda-cold dark matter cosmology. These events are thought to provide important observational diagnostics of non-linear structure formation. Stellar streams in the Milky Way and Andromeda are spectacular evidence for ongoing satellite disruption. However, constructing a statistically meaningful sample of tidal streams beyond the Local Group has proven a daunting observational challenge, and the full potential for deepening our understanding of galaxy assembly using stellar streams has yet to be realised. Aims. Here we introduce the Stellar Stream Legacy Survey, a systematic imaging survey of tidal features associated with dwarf galaxy accretion around a sample of ~3100 nearby galaxies within z~0.02, including about 940 Milky Way analogues. Methods. Our survey exploits public deep imaging data from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys, which reach surface brightness as faint as ~29 mag arcsec –2 in the r band. As a proof of concept of our survey, we report the detection and broad-band photometry of 24 new stellar streams in the local Universe. Results. We discuss how these observations can yield new constraints on galaxy formation theory through comparison to mock observations from cosmological galaxy simulations. These tests will probe the present-day mass assembly rate of galaxies, the stellar populations and orbits of satellites, the growth of stellar halos, and the resilience of stellar disks to satellite bombardment.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗