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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Preventive Power Outage Estimation Based on a Novel Scenario Clustering Strategy

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events is challenging power grid operation. For extreme weather events, the system operator is responsible for estimating the power outages and scheduling the restoration resources. This paper proposes an outage evaluation framework to identify the possible unserved load profiles, vulnerable areas, and mobile energy adequacy. The outputs of an outage prediction model tool are used to generate numerous faulted line scenarios. Next, each scenario's nodal unserved load profile is obtained by solving a three-phase restoration model that considers repair crews and mobile energy resources (MERs). Then, a novel scenario clustering strategy is developed to cluster the unserved load profiles into multiple representative profiles which the system operator can focus on. Finally, case studies on a distribution system evaluate the damage caused by an extreme weather event and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scenario clustering strategy.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,POWER TRANSMISSION AND D↗
DOE OSTI2024

Preventive Power Outage Estimation Based on A Novel Scenario Clustering Strategy: Preprint

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events is challenging the power grid operation. In front of the extreme weather, the system operator is responsible for estimating the power outage and scheduling the restoration resources. This paper proposes an outage evaluation framework to identify the possible unserved load profiles, vulnerable areas, and mobile energy adequacy. The predicted vulnerable lines of an outage prediction model tool are utilized to generate numerous faulted line scenarios. Next, each scenario's nodal unserved load profile is obtained by solving a three-phase restoration model that considers the schedule of repair crews and mobile energy resources. Then, a novel scenario clustering strategy is developed to cluster the unserved load profiles into multiple representative ones for straightforward analysis. Finally, case studies on a distribution system evaluate the damage level brought by extreme weather and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scenario clustering strategy.

mobile energy resources↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Clustering-Based Scenario Generation Framework for Power Market Simulation with Wind Integration

A critical step in stochastic optimization models of power system analysis is to select a set of appropriate scenarios and significant numbers of scenario generation methods exist in the literature. This paper develops a clustering based scenario generation method, which aims to improve the performance of existing scenario generation techniques by grouping a set of correlated wind sites into clusters according to their cross-correlations. Copula based models are utilized to model spatiotemporal correlations and the Gibbs sampling is then used to generate scenarios for day-ahead markets. Our results show that the generated scenarios based on clustered wind sites outperform existing approaches in terms of reliability and sharpness and can reduce the total computational time for scenario generation and reduction significantly. The clustering-based framework can therefore provide a better support for real-world market simulations with high wind penetration.

data visualization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic economic dispatch of wind power under uncertainty using clustering-based extreme scenarios

Operation of power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy sources requires tools for robust decision making under uncertainty. Stochastic economic dispatch and stochastic unit commitment are effective techniques for planning and operation under uncertainty, whose effectiveness depends on the cardinality and quality of the scenario set. Here, this article proposes a machine learning method using -means clustering for capturing relevant physical information from a large population of analog scenarios. Extreme scenario samples drawn from the clusters are used in a two-stage stochastic economic dispatch computation. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is assessed on a synthetic 200-bus system with a geographic footprint over Illinois, USA for four months from each season of WIND Toolkit data. The combination of -means clustering with importance sampling is shown to reduce the total operational cost by over 43% compared to sampling from populations based on heuristic clustering-based methods. Additionally, the variability in the mean cost is about 56% lower than the variability using Monte Carlo sampling. Moreover, the operational cost with the presented approach is shown to be close to the cost calculated based on a hindsight exact wind profile, signifying a highly accurate quantification of wind uncertainty by the presented -means clustering based sampling method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Dynamic-to-Static Correction Factor from Petrophysical Data and Chemostratigraphy using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Estimating static mechanical properties of stratigraphic layers is critical for optimizing subsurface engineering applications. To estimate dynamic-to-static correction factor F ds (static-to-dynamic Young’s modulus ratio) across the Caney shale interval in Oklahoma, USA, we integrated triaxial test measurements and petrophysical data, including well logs and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) using unsupervised machine learning (ML). We used a novel workflow that includes principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce data set dimensionality of well logs and XRF data sets—both separately and combined—creating three scenarios, and later applied inverse distance weighting (IDW) to derive F ds profiles for these scenarios. Furthermore, we applied K-means clustering on each scenario to predict depositional facies, and built a stiffness zonation profile through chemostratigraphic analysis of the terrigenous elements to validate the predicted F ds . The predicted F ds profile from each scenario using the PCA-IDW method was compared with the constant F ds approach from our previous study by calculating the root mean square error (RMSE). The combined data sets scenario yielded the lowest RMSE value of 0.113, while the RMSE values for the well logs and XRF scenarios were 0.131 and 0.129, respectively. In addition, the predicted F ds from the XRF scenario well-matched the stiffness zonation from the chemostratigraphic analysis that was built using the optimized K-means clustering of nine clusters for that scenario. These methods and findings offer a valuable tool for refining lithological classification and improving the F ds profile, potentially enhancing drilling and stimulation strategies for subsurface energy engineering applications.

clastic rock↗
DOE OSTI2023

Late growth of early-type galaxies in low-z massive clusters

ABSTRACT We study a sample of 936 early-type galaxies (ETGs) located in 48 low-z regular galaxy clusters with M200 ≥ 1014 M⊙ at z < 0.1. We examine variations in the concentration index, radius, and colour gradient of ETGs as a function of their stellar mass and loci in the projected phase space (PPS) of the clusters. We aim to understand the environmental influence on the growth of ETGs according to the time since infall into their host clusters. Our analysis indicates a significant change in the behaviour of the concentration index C and colour gradient around $M_{\ast } \approx 2\times 10^{11} ~M_\odot \equiv \tilde{M}_{\ast }$. Objects less massive than $\tilde{M}_{\ast }$ present a slight growth of C with M*, with negative and approximately constant colour gradients in all regions of the PPS. Objects more massive than $\tilde{M}_{\ast }$ present a slight decrease of C with M*, with colour gradients becoming less negative and approaching zero. We also find that objects more massive than $\tilde{M}_{\ast }$, in all PPS regions, have smaller R90 for a given R50, suggesting a smaller external growth in these objects or even a shrinkage possibly due to tidal stripping. Finally, we estimate different dark matter fractions for galaxies in different regions of the PPS, with the ancient satellites having the largest fractions, fDM ≈ 65 per cent. These results favour a scenario where cluster ETGs experience environmental influence the longer they remain and the deeper into the gravitational potential they lie, indicating a combination of tidal stripping + harassment, which predominate during infall, followed by mergers + feedback effects affecting the late growth of ancient satellites and BCGs.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating static PRA information with risk informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) simulation methods

The overall objective of the project was to develop a computationally feasible and user-friendly mechanized process to integrate traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and dynamic PRA (DPRA) results. Starting with the systematic identification of items in an existing PRA that need dynamic augmentation, the project used a generic 4-loop pressurized reactor (PWR) and 3-loop PWR as example plants. Station blackout (SBO) and large break loss of coolant accident SBLOCA) were selected as the example initiating events. Using the traditional event-tree (ET)/fault-tree (FT) methodology augmented by dynamic evet tree approach, the potential consequences of the initiating events were simulated with RELAP-3D and MELCOR/RASCAL codes to cover Level 1 through Level 3 of PRA. RAVEN and ADAPT software were used to generate Level 1 simulations with RELAP-3D and Level 2/3 simulations with MELCOR (Level 2)/RASCAL (Level 3), respectively. Example branching conditions (BCs) for SBO included AC power recovery time, valve repair failure time, reactor coolant pump leak time/break size and emergency power supply duration to a total of 9. Example BCs for LOCA included off-site power recovery time, diesel generator power recovery time, auxiliary feed water system operation time, safety relief valve failure to open upon demand, reactor coolant pump seal break time and size to a total of 21. Each RELAP-3D simulation (9,587 scenarios) was labelled OK or Core Damage based on the maximum allowed peak clad temperature (2,100oF). Each MELCOR simulation (4610 scenarios) was labeled as Bin over 10rem or Bin 0-10rem based on the dose at the site boundary. The scenarios were clustered based on the criteria above using the mean shift methodology. Classical PRA (CPRA) and DPRA results were compared to identify the ET sequences that need DPRA augmentation. Several approaches were proposed for the incorporation of these sequences into CPRA using clustering with the mean shift methodology, restructuring the CPRA ETs by adding new BCs/sequences, and using the concept of a limit surface. Procedures for decision making regarding the possible consequences of an initiating event (e.g. core damage or not, site evacuation or not) were developed using a convolutional neural network (CNN), a recurrent neural network (RNN) and a transformer neural network (TNN). The project has led to two PhD degrees, three archival journal papers and five refereed conference proceedings.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Clash of Titans: the impact of cluster mergers in the galaxy cluster red sequence

ABSTRACT Merging of galaxy clusters are some of the most energetic events in the Universe, and they provide a unique environment to study galaxy evolution. We use a sample of 84 merging and relaxed SPT galaxy clusters candidates, observed with the Dark Energy Camera in the 0.11 < z < 0.88 redshift range, to build colour–magnitude diagrams to characterize the impact of cluster mergers on the galaxy population. We divided the sample between relaxed and disturbed, and in two redshifts bin at z = 0.55. When comparing the high-z to low-z clusters we find the high-z sample is richer in blue galaxies, independently of the cluster dynamical state. In the high-z bin, we find that disturbed clusters exhibit a larger scatter in the red sequence, with wider distribution and an excess of bluer galaxies compared to relaxed clusters, while in the low-z bin we find a complete agreement between the relaxed and disturbed clusters. Our results support the scenario in which massive cluster halos at z < 0.55 galaxies are quenched as satellites of another structure, i.e. outside the cluster, while at z ≥ 0.55 the quenching is dominated by in situ processes.

Aldás, Franklin (ORCID:0000000290215114)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wake Effects in Lower Carbon Future Scenarios

In August 2022, the U.S. Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which intended to accelerate U.S. decarbonization, clean energy manufacturing, and deployment of new power and end-use technologies. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has examined possible scenarios for growth by 2050 resulting from the IRA and other emissions reduction drivers and defined several possible scenarios for large-scale wind deployment. These scenarios incorporate large clusters of turbines operating as wind farms grouped around existing or likely transmission lines which will result in wind farm wakes. Using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, we assess these wake effects in a domain in the U. S. Southern Great Plains for a representative year with four scenarios in order to validate the simulations, estimate the internal wake impact, and quantify the cluster wake effect. Herein, we present a validation of the ”no wind farm” scenario and quantify the internal waking effect for the ”ONE” wind farm scenario. Future work will use the “MID” scenario (more than 8000 turbines) and the “HI” scenario (more than 16,000 turbines) to quantify the effect of cluster wakes or inter-farm wakes on power production.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Vertex-Aligned Model for Packing 4-Hexagonal Clusters in a Regular Hexagonal Container

This paper deals with a problem the packing polyhex clusters in a regular hexagonal container. It is a common problem in many applications with various cluster shapes used, but symmetric polyhex is the most useful in engineering due to its geometrical properties. Hence, we concentrate on mathematical modeling in such an application, where using the “bee” tetrahex is chosen for the new Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) design upgrade, which is one of four detectors used in Large Hadron Collider (LHC) experiment at European Laboratory for Particle Physics (CERN). We start from the existing hexagonal containers with hexagonal cells packed inside, and uniform clustering applied. We compare the center-aligned (CA) and vertex-aligned (VA) models, analyzing cluster rotations providing the increased packing efficiency. We formally describe the geometrical properties of clustering approaches and show that cluster sharing is inevitable at the container border with uniform clustering. In addition, we propose a new vertex-aligned model decreasing the number of shared clusters in the uniform scenario, but with a smaller number of clusters contained inside the container. Also, we describe a non-uniform tetrahex cluster packing scheme in the proposed container model. With the proposed cluster packing solution, it is accomplished that all clusters are contained inside the container region. Since cluster-sharing is completely avoided at the container border, the maximal packing efficiency is obtained compared to the existing models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Eridanus III and DELVE 1: Carbon-rich Primordial Star Clusters or the Smallest Dwarf Galaxies?

We present spectroscopy of the ultra-faint Milky Way satellites Eridanus III (Eri III) and DELVE 1. We identify eight member stars in each satellite and place non-constraining upper limits on their velocity and metallicity dispersions. The brightest star in each object is very metal-poor, at [Fe/H] = -3.1 for Eri III and [Fe/H] = -2.8 for DELVE 1. Both of these stars exhibit large overabundances of carbon and very low abundances of the neutron-capture elements Ba and Sr, and we classify them as CEMP-no stars. Because their metallicities are well below those of the Milky Way globular cluster population, and because no CEMP-no stars have been identified in globular clusters, these chemical abundances could suggest that Eri III and DELVE 1 are dwarf galaxies. On the other hand, the two systems have half-light radii of 8 pc and 6 pc, respectively, which is more compact than any known ultra-faint dwarfs. We conclude that Eri III and DELVE 1 are either the smallest dwarf galaxies yet discovered, or they are representatives of a new class of star clusters that underwent chemical evolution distinct from that of ordinary globular clusters. In the latter scenario, such objects are likely the most primordial star clusters surviving today. These possibilities can be distinguished by future measurements of carbon and/or iron abundances for larger samples of stars or improved stellar kinematics for the two systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Clustering Interval Load with Weather to Create Scenarios of Behind-the-Meter Solar Penetration

Forecasting load at the feeder level has become increasingly challenging with the penetration of behind-the-meter solar, as this self-generation is only visible to the utility as aggregated net-load. This work proposes a methodology for creation of scenarios of solar penetration at the feeder level for use by forecasters to test the robustness of their algorithm to progressively higher penetrations of solar. The algorithm draws on publicly available observations of weather condition (e.g., rainy/cloudy/fair) for use as proxies to sky clearness. These observations are used to mask and weight the interval deviations of similar native usage profiles from which average interval usage is calculated and subsequently added to interval net generation to reconstruct interval total generation. This approach improves the estimate of annual energy generation by 23%; where the net generation signal currently reflects 52% of total annual gener- ation, now 75% is captured. This methodology for creation of forecast testing scenarios is data driven and extensible to service territories which lack information on irradiance measurements and geocoordinates.

solar, load↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep XMM–Newton observations of the most distant SPT-SZ galaxy cluster

ABSTRACT We present results from a 577 ks XMM–Newton observation of SPT-CL J0459–4947, the most distant cluster detected in the South Pole Telescope 2500 square degree (SPT-SZ) survey, and currently the most distant cluster discovered through its Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect. The data confirm the cluster’s high redshift, z = 1.71 ± 0.02, in agreement with earlier, less precise optical/IR photometric estimates. From the gas density profile, we estimate a characteristic mass of $M_{500}=(1.8\pm 0.2)\times 10^{14}\, {\rm M}_{\odot }$; cluster emission is detected above the background to a radius of $\sim \!2.2\, r_{500}$, or approximately the virial radius. The intracluster gas is characterized by an emission-weighted average temperature of 7.2 ± 0.3 keV and metallicity with respect to Solar of $Z/\, Z_{\odot }=0.37\pm 0.08$. For the first time at such high redshift, this deep data set provides a measurement of metallicity outside the cluster centre; at radii $r\gt 0.3\, r_{500}$, we find $Z/\, Z_{\odot }=0.33\pm 0.17$ in good agreement with precise measurements at similar radii in the most nearby clusters, supporting an early enrichment scenario in which the bulk of the cluster gas is enriched to a universal metallicity prior to cluster formation, with little to no evolution thereafter. The leverage provided by the high redshift of this cluster tightens by a factor of 2 constraints on evolving metallicity models, when combined with previous measurements at lower redshifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

CLUE: A Fast Parallel Clustering Algorithm for High Granularity Calorimeters in High-Energy Physics

One of the challenges of high granularity calorimeters, such as that to be built to cover the endcap region in the CMS Phase-2 Upgrade for HL-LHC, is that the large number of channels causes a surge in the computing load when clustering numerous digitized energy deposits (hits) in the reconstruction stage. In this article, we propose a fast and fully parallelizable density-based clustering algorithm, optimized for high-occupancy scenarios, where the number of clusters is much larger than the average number of hits in a cluster. The algorithm uses a grid spatial index for fast querying of neighbors and its timing scales linearly with the number of hits within the range considered. We also show a comparison of the performance on CPU and GPU implementations, demonstrating the power of algorithmic parallelization in the coming era of heterogeneous computing in high-energy physics.

Rovere, Marco↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resilience-Oriented DG Siting and Sizing Considering Stochastic Scenario Reduction

In this paper, a fuel-based distributed generator (DG) allocation strategy is proposed to enhance the distribution system resilience against extreme weather. The long-term planning problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer programming (SMIP). The first stage is to make decisions of DG siting and sizing under the given budget constraint. In the second stage, a post-extreme-event-restoration (PEER) is employed to minimize the operating cost in an uncertain fault scenario. In particular, this study proposes a method to select the most representative scenarios for the SMIP. First, a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is introduced to generate sufficient scenarios considering random fault locations and load profiles. Then, the number of scenarios is reduced by the K-means clustering algorithm. The advantage of scenario reduction is to make a trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the SMIP is solved by the progressive hedging algorithm. Here, the case studies of the IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus test systems demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in reducing the expected energy not served (EENS), which is a critical criterion of resilience.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Significant DBSCAN+: Statistically Robust Density-based Clustering

Cluster detection is important and widely used in a variety of applications, including public health, public safety, transportation, and so on. Given a collection of data points, we aim to detect density-connected spatial clusters with varying geometric shapes and densities, under the constraint that the clusters are statistically significant. The problem is challenging, because many societal applications and domain science studies have low tolerance for spurious results, and clusters may have arbitrary shapes and varying densities. As a classical topic in data mining and learning, a myriad of techniques have been developed to detect clusters with both varying shapes and densities (e.g., density-based, hierarchical, spectral, or deep clustering methods). However, the vast majority of these techniques do not consider statistical rigor and are susceptible to detecting spurious clusters formed as a result of natural randomness. On the other hand, scan statistic approaches explicitly control the rate of spurious results, but they typically assume a single “hotspot” of over-density and many rely on further assumptions such as a tessellated input space. To unite the strengths of both lines of work, we propose a statistically robust formulation of a multi-scale DBSCAN, namely Significant DBSCAN+, to identify significant clusters that are density connected. As we will show, incorporation of statistical rigor is a powerful mechanism that allows the new Significant DBSCAN+ to outperform state-of-the-art clustering techniques in various scenarios. We also propose computational enhancements to speed-up the proposed approach. Experiment results show that Significant DBSCAN+ can simultaneously improve the success rate of true cluster detection (e.g., 10–20% increases in absolute F1 scores) and substantially reduce the rate of spurious results (e.g., from thousands/hundreds of spurious detections to none or just a few across 100 datasets), and the acceleration methods can improve the efficiency for both clustered and non-clustered data.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2021

Synthetic galaxy clusters and observations based on Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Data

ABSTRACT We develop a novel data-driven method for generating synthetic optical observations of galaxy clusters. In cluster weak lensing, the interplay between analysis choices and systematic effects related to source galaxy selection, shape measurement, and photometric redshift estimation can be best characterized in end-to-end tests going from mock observations to recovered cluster masses. To create such test scenarios, we measure and model the photometric properties of galaxy clusters and their sky environments from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) data in two bins of cluster richness $\lambda \in [30; 45)$, $\lambda \in [45; 60)$ and three bins in cluster redshift ($z\in [0.3; 0.35)$, $z\in [0.45; 0.5)$ and $z\in [0.6; 0.65)$. Using deep-field imaging data, we extrapolate galaxy populations beyond the limiting magnitude of DES Y3 and calculate the properties of cluster member galaxies via statistical background subtraction. We construct mock galaxy clusters as random draws from a distribution function, and render mock clusters and line-of-sight catalogues into synthetic images in the same format as actual survey observations. Synthetic galaxy clusters are generated from real observational data, and thus are independent from the assumptions inherent to cosmological simulations. The recipe can be straightforwardly modified to incorporate extra information, and correct for survey incompleteness. New realizations of synthetic clusters can be created at minimal cost, which will allow future analyses to generate the large number of images needed to characterize systematic uncertainties in cluster mass measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Interpreting internal consistency of DES measurements

ABSTRACT Bayesian evidence ratios are widely used to quantify the statistical consistency between different experiments. However, since the evidence ratio is prior dependent, the precise translation between its value and the degree of concordance/discordance requires additional information. The most commonly adopted metric, the Jeffreys scale, can falsely suggest agreement between data sets when priors are chosen to be sufficiently wide. This work examines evidence ratios in a DES-Y1 simulated analysis, focusing on the internal consistency between weak lensing and galaxy clustering. We study two scenarios using simulated data in controlled experiments. First, we calibrate the expected evidence ratio distribution given noise realizations around the best-fitting DES-Y1 ΛCDM cosmology. Secondly, we show the behaviour of evidence ratios for noiseless fiducial data vectors simulated using a modified gravity model, which generates internal tension in the LCDM analysis. We find that the evidence ratio of noise realizations generated at all confidence levels was biased towards agreement and show, with a modified gravity model, that the choice of prior could conceal the discrepancies between weak lensing and galaxy clustering induced by prior effects in unlike cosmological models, concluding that the evidence ratio in a DES-Y1 study is, indeed, biased towards agreement. Boundary effects can also influence conclusions about the inconsistency induced by modified gravity, even in a noiseless data vector simulation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗